基于三维空间插值技术的某场地中总石油烃污染分布确定

为了解总石油烃在场地中的扩散分布规律,立体呈现其污染分布特征,选择华北某污染场地为研究对象,分层采集土壤样品并采用三维空间插值软件EVS-Pro建立地质模型和污染插值模型,对C16总石油烃(脂肪族)(以下简称总石油烃)分布特征进行分析。结果表明:不同采样点位污染物浓度分布差异明显,总石油烃最高值是DB11/T 811—2011《场地土壤环境风险评价筛选值》的11.71倍;场地内污染物表现出较强的垂直和水平迁移能力,在空间中的迁移分布特征与生产历史状况、水文地质条件密切相关。研究表明,通过三维插值模型构建的插值结果可以更加直观地呈现污染分布,更好地反映各因素对总石油烃分布的影响。     

High-temperature stress-rupture data for the analysis of dangerous goods tank-cars exposed to fire

This paper contains tension and stress-rupture test data on sample railroad tank-car steels at room temperature and temperatures between 500 and 720 °C. The paper describes the test facility, applicable standards, and procedures that were followed during the tests of tension and stress rupture. The paper also contains a simple correlation for the data and gives examples of how it can be used to predict tank failure times when exposed to fire heating.The stress-rupture testing was conducted at constant load (tensile force) conditions. A sample was heated to a specified temperature and the load was applied. The time to failure was then recorded. This testing was needed due to a general lack of available data for the high-temperature stress rupture of tank-car steels. These data are needed for the purposes of predicting tank failure when tank-cars are exposed to heating by fire. The steel samples were obtained from a recent train derailment in Ontario, Canada, and the steel samples included both new and older steels. Samples were cut in both the hoop and longitudinal directions to see if the stress-rupture properties were isotropic.Excellent data were obtained with very little data scatter in each sample. The results show that stress-rupture properties vary from sample to sample. Some older steels were as good as new steels, and some were not. However, all samples were nearly isotropic when it came to high-temperature stress rupture.     

Fused CFD-interpolation model for real-time prediction of hazardous gas dispersion in emergency rescue

Accidental releases of hazardous gases in chemical industries can pose great threats to public security. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is commonly applied to predict gas dispersion in complex structured areas. It can provide good accuracy but it is too time-consuming to be used in emergency response. To reduce computation time while keep acceptable accuracy, this paper proposes several fused CFD-interpolation models which combine CFD model with different interpolation methods. Spline, linear and nearest interpolation methods are used. A CFD simulations database is created ahead of time which can be quickly recalled for emergency usage and unknown situations can be predicted instantly by interpolation methods instead of time-consuming CFD model. Fused models were applied to a case study involving a hypothetical propane release with varying conditions and validated against CFD model. The validation shows that prediction accuracy of these fusion models is acceptable. Among these models, CFD-Spline interpolation model performs best. It is faster than CFD model by a factor of 75 and is potentially a good method to be applied to real-time prediction.     

数值分析方法在一起高危工艺分析中的应用

以二级放热反应为研究对象,在反应体系温度、浓度均匀分布的假设基础上,根据反应速率方程和热平衡方程,建立高危工艺反应的温度和转化率随时间变化的数学模型。采用数值计算技术,以一阶差分代替微分,并结合工艺中的恒温过程、绝热过程和飞温过程,编写计算程序求得其转化率、温度在不同时间点的数值解,揭示爆炸事故的发展过程,定量分析操作参数的影响和转化率、温度随时间分布的规律。同时通过对绝热反应时间、冷凝器的冷却能力的分析,结合冷凝器的移热能力和反应放热对反应体系热积累的影响,讨论防止反应失控发生的可能性。最后探讨冷凝器热负荷余量、反应物投料浓度比等因素对控制反应失控的影响。     

Modelling three-phase releases of carbon dioxide from high-pressure pipelines

This paper describes the development and experimental validation of a three-phase flow model for predicting the transient outflow following the failure of pressurised CO₂ pipelines and vessels. The choked flow parameters at the rupture plane, spanning the dense-phase and saturated conditions to below the triple point, are modelled by maximisation of the mass flowrate with respect to pressure and solids mass fraction at the triple point. The pertinent solid/vapour/liquid phase equilibrium data are predicted using an extended Peng–Robinson equation of state.The proposed outflow model is successfully validated against experimental data obtained from high-pressure CO₂ releases performed as part of the FP7 CO2PipeHaz project (www.co2pipehaz.eu).The formation of solid phase CO₂ at the triple point is marked by a stabilisation in pressure as confirmed by both theory and experimental observation. For a fixed diameter hypothetical pipeline at 100 bar and 20 °C, the flow model is used to determine the impact of the pipeline length on the time taken to commence solid CO₂ discharge following its rupture.     

基于轨道检测数据的轨道状态评定方法研究

为了保证列车在轨道上安全运行,铁路部门采用动态检测和静态检测两种方式对铁路轨道进行检查。笔者针对现有铁路轨道检测方式,提出根据检测数据评定轨道质量状态的方法。该法采用数据仓库技术存储检测数据,给出检测数据存储的双重粒度模式和数据分割模式。从时间和空间两个方面对检测数据进行分析,采用轨道局部状态、整体状态、超限点重复率和重点地段分析的方法。将轨道数据分为时间维、地理维、类别维3个维度,运用星型模式对轨道检测数据进行数据挖掘,发现轨道变化规律。将上述方法应用到南疆工务管理信息系统中,取得了较好的实用效果。     

基于链式多重插补的WOA-ELM煤与瓦斯突出预测模型

为了提高缺失数据下煤与瓦斯突出预测准确率,提出1种基于链式支持向量机多重插补(MICE＿SVM)的鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)-极限学习机(ELM)预测模型,以淮南朱集矿区为例,选取5个煤与瓦斯突出影响指标作为模型特征,采用提出的MICE＿SVM算法插补突出事故数据中缺失值,利用WOA优选ELM输入层权值及隐含层阈值,构建煤与瓦斯突出预测模型,将插补后数据用于WOA-ELM模型的训练与测试,并与其他模型的预测效果对比。研究结果表明：MICE＿SVM插补前、后的有突出数据预测准确率分别为83.02%,90.41%,MICE＿SVM显著提高了有突出预测准确率,对无突出和整体的预测准确率提高不明显;数据插补后WOA优化ELM对无突出、有突出和整体的预测准确率分别为97.94%,96.25%,96.48%,较优化前分别提高了5.79%,5.84%,5.55%,数据插补后WOA-ELM为最佳预测模型。     

基于复杂网络的燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析*

为提高燃气管线突发事件应急处置决策水平和应急响应能力及效率,采用复杂网络理论和灾害链演化机理对燃气管线破裂灾害事件影响进行耦合分析,构建燃气管线破裂灾害链网络和风险评估模型,并计算得出燃气管线破裂灾害链风险度。为更准确地表达无传播路径的灾害事件之间的关系,将灾害网络中所有最短路径长度的最大值作为其最短路径长度,计算表明这种算法更符合灾害传播实际情况。结果表明:通过燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析,能够为燃气管线灾害风险控制措施和方案制定提供参考,有利于提高燃气管线破裂灾害事件的应急处置能力和决策水平。     

On the thermal rupture of 1.9 m propane pressure vessels with defects in their thermal protection system

This paper describes the results from a series of fire tests that were carried out to measure the effect of defects in thermal protection systems on fire engulfed propane pressure vessels.

In North America thermal protection is used to protect dangerous goods rail tank-cars from accidental fire impingement. They are designed so that a tank-car will not rupture for 100 min in a defined engulfing fire, or 30 min in a defined torching fire. One common system includes a 13 mm blanket of high-temperature ceramic fibre thermal insulation covered with a 3 mm steel jacket. Recent inspections have shown that some tanks have significant defects in these thermal protection systems. This work was done to establish what levels of defect are acceptable from a safety standpoint.

The tests were conducted using 1890 l (500 US gallon) ASME code propane pressure vessels (commonly called tanks in the propane industry). The defects tested covered 8% and 15% of the tank surface. The tanks were 25% engulfed in a fire that simulated a hydrocarbon pool fire with an effective blackbody temperature of 870 °C.

The fire testing showed that even relatively small defects can result in tank rupture if the defect area is engulfed in a severe fire, and the defect area is not wetted by liquid from the inside. A wall failure prediction technique based on uniaxial high-temperature stress rupture test data has been developed and agrees well with the observed failure times.     

无线数据传输技术在列车安全监控系统中的应用

笔者将GSM网的无线数据传输技术成功应用到列车安全监控系统中 ,系统监测数据经转储发送系统中转 ,由移动台系统实时、无线传输到基站微机系统 ,通过VC ++语言编制的软件系统实时统计分析数据 ,来监控列车运行状况 ,达到列车安全运行的目标。在列车安全监控系统中 ,不仅实现了数据无线实时传输 ,而且提高了工作效率和减轻了工作强度。在济南铁路局装车试验并广泛使用 ,表明了无线数据传输技术应用到列车安全监控系统中具有较高的可靠性和实用性     

基于热-结构耦合分析的液化石油气储罐失效预警判定*

为研究火灾中球罐应力场分布情况,找到球罐失效破裂条件,以液化石油气为研究对象,基于球罐稳态热响应,通过ANSYS热-结构耦合有限元分析法进行研究。结果表明:充装率85%的液化石油气球罐最高温度部位出现在气相区,约619.66 ℃;最大应力值出现在气液交界处,约615.18 MPa;得到球罐破裂失效时温度值和应力值,并设置2次预警值。研究结果可为液化石油气储罐失效预警提供参考和判定依据。     

基于神经网络方法的复杂超静定结构失效概率分析

将整体结构按拓扑关系划分为若干模块,根据力的传递原理对模块结构进行失效概率计算,获得各模块结构的失效概率信息;运用有限元模拟分析获得整体结构的失效概率信息。再将模块结构的失效概率作为输入,整体结构的失效概率作为输出,构造样本集。以BP神经网络进行失效概率分析,既可提高计算速度和精度,也可利用其泛化能力对相同拓扑结构的超静定结构进行失效概率计算。算例中对包含5个模块结构的整体结构单元进行基于神经网络的失效概率分析,以网络外推能力计算了包含7模块结构的整体结构单元的失效概率,获得较好的计算精度,从而验证了该方法的有效性。     

不同楼梯布局条件下行人疏散效果仿真研究

为研究不同楼梯类型的行人疏散效果，改进传统社会力模型，模拟4种常见梯形中行人的疏散过程，并通过总疏散时间和平均疏散速度指标以及微观速度密度分布图分析其疏散效果中存在的内在物理机制。研究表明:从安全和高效疏散角度上看，在限定空间中，单跑无平台梯形布局有利于低密度人群下人员的快速疏散；在中、高密度人群中，双分梯形的分流特点更有利于人员安全、快速疏散。从微观密度、速度分布图可看到这4种梯形在人员疏散过程中均易造成人员聚集拥堵，但发生事故风险的位置不同。单跑有、无平台梯形在楼梯上端和下端均易发生拥堵，且此时速度值大，发生事故的风险高；双分与双跑梯形在楼梯与平台的转角处易发生拥堵。     

动态瓦斯地质预测算法研究与可视化应用

为实现煤矿瓦斯地质动态精准预测与可视化,基于煤层埋深、厚度、倾角、地质构造等多种因素,通过将相似的地质模块定义为同一微单元,在此基础上将反距离权重插值算法和递归邻域搜索策略与数据优化处理算法相结合,应用于瓦斯地质动态预测可视化系统开发。研究结果表明:根据递归邻域搜索算法模型开发的多级瓦斯地质图动态分析系统利用瓦斯地质基础数据可对矿井瓦斯含量、压力、涌出量等瓦斯赋存参数进行实时分析和计算,动态绘制散点图、等值线和区域预测图,使瓦斯区域预测图过渡更加平缓,显著提高预测的精准性及整体的显示效果,同时其制图耗时也无明显增加,可为高瓦斯矿井安全生产提供决策依据。     

粘性水灭火剂性能试验及灭火机理研究

水是常用灭火剂 ,但流失严重 ,灭火效率不高。在水中加入添加剂 ,提高水在固体表面的粘附性 ,减少流失 ,可显著提高灭火速度。笔者提出了应具有屈服假塑性流体特性的粘性水灭火剂 ,能在物体表面形成稳定的覆盖层 ,并具有较低的输送阻力。在水中加入 0 .4 %的KD - 1型添加剂 ,制成的粘性水灭火剂就具有上述的流体力学特性 ,该粘性水可在固体表面形成 1～ 5mm的稳定覆盖层。在木材火灾灭火试验中 ,粘性水的灭火时间是水灭火的 1/ 4。笔者还研讨了粘性水灭火剂的灭火机理 ,并指出该灭火剂适用的范围和开发前景。     

小苏打对红色彩跑粉粉尘云爆炸极限氧浓度的影响

为研究彩跑粉的爆炸强度和爆炸敏感性,采用20 L球形爆炸实验系统和热重-差热分析仪开展实验,在分析红色彩跑粉爆炸压力和爆炸极限氧浓度(LOC)的基础上,进一步揭示小苏打对红色彩跑粉爆炸极限氧浓度的影响规律。研究结果表明：在玉米粉中添加红色食用色素后形成的彩跑粉会增加爆炸风险,爆炸猛烈度属于St1级;在50～400 g/m³粉尘浓度范围内,红色彩跑粉的LOC值先减小后增大,在200 g/m³时LOC值达到最低9%;当添加不同比例小苏打对红色彩跑粉爆炸风险进行抑制时,发现LOC值随着红色彩跑粉与小苏打混合性粉尘掺混比的增大而增大,在掺混比为50%时,红色彩跑粉与小苏打混合性粉尘的LOC值为21%。研究结果可为彩跑粉加工厂的抑爆和惰化防爆技术提供基础数据参考。     

室内天然气泄漏扩散数值模拟及试验验证

为研究厨房内泄漏天然气的浓度分布及其变化规律进而分析评价其危险性,通过Gambit软件建立一个典型的住宅厨房几何模型,采用Fluent软件模拟灶具软管脱落导致天然气泄漏时,在厨房门不同开度状态下厨房内天然气浓度场及可燃区域分布。模拟结果表明:门开度越大,室内可燃区域体积越小,天然气浓度分布趋于稳定的时间越短,稳定时天然气浓度越低,厨房内出现较大可燃体积所需的泄漏时间越长;当门全开时,厨房内不会出现可爆空间。搭建一个小尺寸的厨房实物进行泄漏试验,同时进行天然气浓度的实测和Fluent模拟,模拟结果与实测结果基本吻合,从而验证Fluent模拟的有效性。     

复杂火区条件下煤火圈划和火源位置探测方法及应用

应用同位素测氡法探测技术对老二井火区进行了精确探测,并结合数值插值技术对野外测氡数据进行相应处理,得成了火区氡测值等值线和火区高温火源位置分布等值线,进而区分了该火区东西测场内的温度异常区和燃烧区。分析结果表明,西区温度异常区总面积约255477m2,东区温度异常总面积约70370m2,为该矿区灭火方案的设计提供了科学依据,也可为国内同类问题的解决提供参考。     

Development of a Computationally Efficient Full Human Body Finite Element Model

Introduction: A simplified and computationally efficient human body finite element model is presented. The model complements the Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) detailed 50th percentile occupant (M50-O) by providing kinematic and kinetic data with a significantly reduced run time using the same body habitus.

Methods: The simplified occupant model (M50-OS) was developed using the same source geometry as the M50-O. Though some meshed components were preserved, the total element count was reduced by remeshing, homogenizing, or in some cases omitting structures that are explicitly contained in the M50-O. Bones are included as rigid bodies, with the exception of the ribs, which are deformable but were remeshed to a coarser element density than the M50-O. Material models for all deformable components were drawn from the biomechanics literature. Kinematic joints were implemented at major articulations (shoulder, elbow, wrist, hip, knee, and ankle) with moment vs. angle relationships from the literature included for the knee and ankle. The brain of the detailed model was inserted within the skull of the simplified model, and kinematics and strain patterns are compared.

Results: The M50-OS model has 11 contacts and 354,000 elements; in contrast, the M50-O model has 447 contacts and 2.2 million elements. The model can be repositioned without requiring simulation. Thirteen validation and robustness simulations were completed. This included denuded rib compression at 7 discrete sites, 5 rigid body impacts, and one sled simulation. Denuded tests showed a good match to the experimental data of force vs. deflection slopes. The frontal rigid chest impact simulation produced a peak force and deflection within the corridor of 4.63 kN and 31.2%, respectively. Similar results vs. experimental data (peak forces of 5.19 and 8.71 kN) were found for an abdominal bar impact and lateral sled test, respectively. A lateral plate impact at 12 m/s exhibited a peak of roughly 20 kN (due to stiff foam used around the shoulder) but a more biofidelic response immediately afterward, plateauing at 9 kN at 12 ms. Results from a frontal sled simulation showed that reaction forces and kinematic trends matched experimental results well. The robustness test demonstrated that peak femur loads were nearly identical to the M50-O model. Use of the detailed model brain within the simplified model demonstrated a paradigm for using the M50-OS to leverage aspects of the M50-O. Strain patterns for the 2 models showed consistent patterns but greater strains in the detailed model, with deviations thought to be the result of slightly different kinematics between models. The M50-OS with the deformable skull and brain exhibited a run time 4.75 faster than the M50-O on the same hardware.

Conclusions: The simplified GHBMC model is intended to complement rather than replace the detailed M50-O model. It exhibited, on average, a 35-fold reduction in run time for a set of rigid impacts. The model can be used in a modular fashion with the M50-O and more broadly can be used as a platform for parametric studies or studies focused on specific body regions.     

基于海洋环境要素的动态航行风险评估*

为得到精确动态航行评估结果,将多准则决策方法与GIS风险制图技术相结合,以5种海洋环境要素（风场、洋流、海浪、海温和海底地形）作为评估因子,通过数据时空插值法和层次分析法（AHP,Analytic Hierarchy Process）确定评估因子权重,提出权重优化算法改进权重值,进而得到最优动态航行风险评估结果。结果表明:动态航行风险评估结果能够直观展示海域航行风险空间分布和变化趋势,评估具有实时性和连续性,可以为海域恶劣海况提供足够预警能力。