Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data

Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.     

Using multitemporal Landsat TM imagery to establish land use pressure induced trends in forest and woodland cover in sections of the Soutpansberg Mountains of Venda region, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Globally, tropical forests are being perturbed by human activity. Tropical vegetation constitutes some of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks against the build up of greenhouse gases. In this paper, a local-scale case study utilising remote sensing methodology in estimating forest loss is presented, for a section of tropical South Africa’s Soutpansberg Mountains where land use pressure threatens some of the last remaining indigenous forests. Landsat TM images from October 1990, August 2000 and September 2006 were used, together with municipality level demographic data. Hybrid image classification techniques distinguished forest cover on the images, which were classified into vegetation density categories. About 20% of forest and woodland cover was lost in the 16-year analysis period, mainly due to pine and eucalyptus plantation and residential housing expansions. The local-scale key drivers behind the deforestation are examined.     

竹子造林CCER项目碳汇价值动态评估及敏感性分析

基于竹子造林碳汇项目方法学和改进的项目减排量经济价值评价模型,以湖北省通山县竹子造林项目为例,对竹子造林项目减排量及经济价值进行了动态定量评估,并对不同情景下项目减排量经济价值的变化进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:在当前条件下,单位面积平均和20年累计减排量为12.6 t CO_2e/hm~2和251.2 t CO_2e/hm~2,项目面积为6 556 t CO_2e和131 125t CO_2e,但其主要集中在项目运行期前十年的地上和地下生物质碳库,而后十年的竹制品碳库相对较少;项目面积年均和累计碳汇价值量为9.62万元和192.41万元,中国自愿减排交易市场发育和健康运行对竹子造林项目碳汇价值影响显著;竹林经营技术条件,主要竹制品加工联合利用效率及联合使用寿命变化,对竹子造林项目年均和累计碳汇价值均有正向影响,但后两者的影响程度较小。未来应尽快构建囊括抵消机制的全国统一碳市场;重视毛竹碳汇造林与管护技术的应用、示范与推广;并鼓励竹子加工企业进行技术创新,生产和销售耐用竹制品。     

三峡库区乔木林生物量和碳储量的估算

以三峡库区为研究地点,建立库区优势树种立木生物量模型,并测定乔木含碳系数,结合库区第7次和第8次森林资源连续清查数据,估算了整个三峡库区乔木林的生物量和碳储量。研究结果表明:(1)整个库区乔木林生物量和碳储量第7次调查为12 583×104t和6 471×104t,单位面积生物量75.70t/hm2,碳密度38.93t/hm2,第8次调查为14 253×104t和7 396×104t,单位面积生物量77.46t/hm2,碳密度40.20t/hm2。可见,这5a中,三峡库区生物量和碳储量都有所增加。(2)对于不同森林植被类型来说,松类的生物量和碳储量都显著高于其他类型,分别占三峡库区生物量和碳储量的40%和50%。(3)三峡库区森林植被生物量和碳储量随龄级增大先增大后减少,在中龄林时达到最大,比较两次调查的生物量和碳储量,森林植被主要以幼林龄和中龄林占优。(4)两次调查显示三峡库区森林植被生物量和碳储量主要分布在天然林中,对于碳汇起到主要作用,同时,人工林所占的比例有所提高,其碳汇能力也逐步提高。     

Vegetation of Northeast China during the late seventeenth to early twentieth century as revealed by historical documents

Historical vegetation antedates current anthropogenic land use. It can therefore be used to reveal land use/cover changes due to human activities. We collected 197 records from Chinese historical documents, including gazettes, government files, private literature, and travel notes, to reveal vegetation status during the late seventeenth century to early twentieth century across Northeast China. The results indicate that woodland and grassland were the dominant landscapes, whereas swamps accounted for a small area. Woodland was composed of needleleaf deciduous forest, broadleaf deciduous forest, and mixed needleleaf and broadleaf forest. Mixed forest occupied the largest area. This forest type covered most of the Greater Khingan Range, Lesser Khingan Range, and Changbai Mountains. Grassland occupied the Songnen Plain, Liao River Plain, and Inner Mongolia Plateau, whereas swamps covered nearly the entire Sanjiang Plain. In addition, the data revealed that most current cropland was converted from grassland in the Northeast Plain, whereas a small area of cropland was converted from woodland and swamp.     

Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

Variation in climate, disturbance regime, and forest management strongly influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information on these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the four-state Northwest US region for the interval from 1986 to 2010. Landsat data were used to characterize disturbances, and forest inventory data were used to parameterize the model. The overall disturbance rate on forest land across the region was 0.8 % year^?1, with 49 % as harvests, 28 % as fire, and 23 % as pest/pathogen. Net ecosystem production (NEP) for the 2006–2010 interval on forestland was predominantly positive (a carbon sink) throughout the region, with maximum values in the Coast Range, intermediate values in the Cascade Mountains, and relatively low values in the Inland Rocky Mountain ecoregions. Localized negative NEPs were mostly associated with recent disturbances. There was large interannual variation in regional NEP, with notably low values across the region in 2003, which was also the warmest year in the interval. The recent (2006–2010) net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was positive for the region (14.4 TgC year^?1). Despite a lower area-weighted mean NECB, public forestland contributed a larger proportion to the total NECB because of its larger area. Aggregated forest inventory data and inversion modeling are beginning to provide opportunities for evaluating model-simulated regional carbon stocks and fluxes.     

青海省近20年森林植被碳储量变化及其现状分析

基于林业生态功能和青海省森林资源清查数据,采用森林植被生物量换算因子连续函数法,系统估算与分析青海省森林植被碳储量、碳密度,研究其近20 a碳储量变化并进行现状分析。结果表明：(1)青海省森林碳储量为11 182 64222 t,占同时期全国总碳储量的198%,青海省森林生态系统中面积占较大比重的中龄林,其碳储量尚未达到最大,有较大发展空间;(2)青海省近20 a天然林类型中碳储量较大的前4种分别是：柏木（Cupressus funebris）、桦木（Betula）、杨树（Populus）、云杉（Picea asperata）天然林,表明这几种天然林在青海省森林植被中占有重要的地位,其集中分布对区域生态功能的发挥起主导作用;(3)所采用的碳储量估算方法尚存不足,在以后计算中应考虑根据不同林分类型的含碳量进行计算     

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to upscale stand level damages by bark beetles as simulated in the hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.41. Comparing EFISCEN simulations including the new bark beetle disturbance module against a 15-year damage time series for Austria showed good agreement at province level (R2 between 0.496 and 0.802). A scenario analysis of climate change impacts on bark beetle-induced damages in Austria’s Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] forests resulted in a strong increase in damages (from 1.33 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 1990–2004, to 4.46 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 2095–2099). Studying two adaptive management strategies (species change) revealed a considerable time-lag between the start of adaptation measures and a decrease in simulated damages by bark beetles.     

Agroforestry in the Western Ghats of peninsular India and the satoyama landscapes of Japan: a comparison of two sustainable land use systems

Agroforestry in the Western Ghats (WG) of peninsular India and satoyama in rural Japan are traditional land-use systems with similar evolutionary trajectories. Some of their relevance was lost by the middle of the twentieth century, when modern agricultural technologies and urbanisation engineered shifts in emphasis towards maximising crop production. There has been, however, a resurgence of interest in traditional land-use systems recently, in view of their ability to provide ecosystem services. Both agroforestry and satoyama are thought to be harbingers of biological diversity and have the potential to serve as “carbon forests.” Carbon (C) stock estimates of the sampled homegardens in WG ranged from 16 to 36 Mg ha⁻¹. Satoyama woodlands owing to variations in tree stocking and management conditions indicated widely varying C stocks (2–279 Mg ha⁻¹). Agroforestry and satoyama also differ in nature, complexity, and objectives. While agroforestry involves key productive and protective functions, and adopts ‘intensive management’, the satoyama woodlands are extensively managed; understorey production is seldom a consideration. Differences in canopy architecture (multi-tiered structure of agroforestry vs. the more or less unitary canopy of satoayama) and land ownership pattern (privately owned/managed agroforestry holdings vs. community or local government or privately owned and mostly abandoned satoyamas) pose other challenges in the transfer and application of knowledge gained in one system to the other. Nonetheless, lessons learnt from satoyama conservation may be suitable for common pool resource management elsewhere in Asia, and aspects relating to understorey production in agroforestry may be relevant for satoyama under certain scenarios.     

Global estimates of soil carbon sequestration via livestock waste: a STELLA simulation

It has become increasingly well documented that human activities are enhancing the greenhouse effect and altering the global climate. Identifying strategies to mitigate atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions on the national level are therefore critical. Fossil fuel combustion is primarily responsible for the perturbation of the global carbon cycle, although the influence of humans extends far beyond the combustion of fossil fuels. Changes in land use arising from human activities contribute substantially to atmospheric carbon dioxide; however, land use changes can act as a carbon dioxide sink as well. A soil carbon model was built using STELLA to explore how soil organic carbon sequestration (SOC) varies over a range of values for key parameters and to estimate the amount of global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste. To obtain soil carbon sequestration estimates, model simulations occurred for 11 different livestock types and with data for eight regions around the world. The model predicted that between 1980 and 1995, United States soils were responsible for the sequestration of 444–602 Tg C from livestock waste. Model simulations further predicted that during the same period, global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste was 2,810–4,218 Tg C. Our estimates for global SOC sequestration are modest in proportion to other terrestrial carbon sinks (i.e. forest regrowth); however, livestock waste does represent a potential for long-term soil carbon gain. SOC generated from livestock waste is another example of how human activities and land use changes are altering soil processes around the world. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Grazing,forest density,and carbon storage: towards a more sustainable land use in Caatinga dry forests of Brazil

Grazing is the main land use in semi-arid regions of the world, and sustainable management practices are urgently needed to prevent their degradation. However, how different grazing intensities affect forest density and ecosystem functions is often not sufficiently understood to allow for management adaptations that safeguard the ecosystems and their functions in the long run. We assessed the aboveground carbon stocks and plant densities along a grazing gradient in the semi-arid seasonally dry tropical forest of north-eastern Brazil (Caatinga). On 45 study plots, we analysed the aboveground carbon stocks of the vegetation and determined forest density and recruitment as well as the population structure of the most abundant tree species. Grazing intensity was accounted for based on the weight of livestock droppings and classified as low, intermediate, or high. Mean aboveground carbon stock was 15.74?±?1.92 Mg ha^?1 with trees and shrubs accounting for 89% of the total amount. Grazing at high intensities significantly reduced aboveground carbon stocks of herbs but not of other plant functional types. Instead, aboveground carbon stocks of trees and shrubs were negatively related to altitude above sea level, which is a proxy for reduced water availability along with lower anthropogenic impact. The population structure of the most common tree species was characterised by abundant recruitment, irrespective of grazing, whereas the recruitment of less frequent woody species was negatively affected by grazing. Overall, our data imply that grazing and forage management need to be adapted, including the reduction of free-roaming livestock and storage of fodder, to maintain carbon storage and forest density.     

Radiocarbon and stable carbon isotope compositions of chemically fractionated soil organic matter in a temperate-zone forest

To better understand the role of soil organic matter in terrestrial carbon cycle, carbon isotope compositions in soil samples from a temperate-zone forest were measured for bulk, acid-insoluble and base-insoluble organic matter fractions separated by a chemical fractionation method. The measurements also made it possible to estimate indirectly radiocarbon ((14)C) abundances of acid- and base-soluble organic matter fractions, through a mass balance of carbon among the fractions. The depth profiles of (14)C abundances showed that (1) bomb-derived (14)C has penetrated the first 16cm mineral soil at least; (2) Delta(14)C values of acid-soluble organic matter fraction are considerably higher than those of other fractions; and (3) a significant amount of the bomb-derived (14)C has been preserved as the base-soluble organic matter around litter-mineral soil boundary. In contrast, no or little bomb-derived (14)C was observed for the base-insoluble fraction in all sampling depths, indicating that this recalcitrant fraction, accounting for approximately 15% of total carbon in this temperate-zone forest soil, plays a role as a long-term sink in the carbon cycle. These results suggest that bulk soil organic matter cannot provide a representative indicator as a source or a sink of carbon in soil, particularly on annual to decadal timescales.     

The impact of climate change and its uncertainty on carbon storage in Switzerland

Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks.     

Accounting for carbon stocks in models of land-use change: an application to Southern Yucatan

To assess the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks, we apply a new methodology, linking ecological and economic modeling, to southern Yucatan, Mexico. A spatial econometric multinomial logit model of ten land-cover classes is estimated (four primary forest categories, three secondary growth categories, an invasive species, and two agricultural land-cover categories), using satellite data on land cover, linked with census socioeconomic data and other biophysical spatial data from 2000. The analysis is novel in that it is the first attempt to link detailed satellite data on land use, with on-the-ground estimates of carbon stocks in a spatial econometric model of land use. The estimated multinomial logit model is then used with two scenarios of future economic growth (“low growth” and “high growth” changes in population, agricultural land use, market access, and education levels) in the region to predict land-cover changes resulting from the economic growth. The per hectare carbon (C) stocks in each land-cover class are derived from previously published estimates of biomass from field sampling across the study region. We consider aboveground-only, aboveground plus soil, transient and non-transient pools of carbon. These estimates are scaled up to the total area in each class according to the predictions of the model baseline and the two development scenarios. Subsequently, the changes in carbon stocks resulting from the predicted land-cover changes are calculated. Under the low growth scenario, carbon stocks declined by 5%; under the high growth scenario, losses were 12%. Including soil C, the proportional losses were lower, but the absolute amount lost was more than double (to 6 Tg C under the low and almost 15 Tg C under the high-growth scenario). This methodology could be further developed for applications in global change policy, such as payments for environmental services (PES) or reduction in emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD).     

Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature,precipitation and atmospheric CO2

A sensitivity study was performed to investigate the responses of potential natural vegetation distribution in China to the separate and combined effects of temperature, precipitation and [CO₂], using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME4. The model shows a generally good agreement with a map of the potential natural vegetation distribution based on a numerical comparison using the ΔV statistic (ΔV = 0.25). Mean temperature of each month was increased uniformly by 0–5 K, in 0.5- or 1-K intervals. Mean precipitation of each month was increased and decreased uniformly by 0–30%, in 10% intervals. The analyses were run at fixed CO₂ concentrations of 360 and 720 ppm. Temperature increases shifted most forest boundaries northward and westward, expanded the distribution of xeric biomes, and confined the tundra to progressively higher elevations. Precipitation increases led to a greater area occupied by mesic biomes at the expense of xeric biomes. Most vegetation types in the temperate regions, and on the Tibetan Plateau, expanded westward into the dry continental interior with increasing precipitation. Precipitation decreases had opposite effects. The modelled effect of CO₂ doubling was to partially compensate for the negative effect of drought on the mesic biomes and to increase potential ecosystem carbon storage by about 40%. Warming tended to counteract this effect, by reducing soil carbon storage. Forest biomes showed substantial resilience to climate change, especially when the effects of increasing [CO₂] were taken into account. Savannas, dry woodland and tundra biomes proved sensitive to temperature increases. The transition region of grassland and forest, and the Tibetan plateau, was the most vulnerable region.     

Shifting maize cultivation and secondary vegetation in the Southern Yucatán: successional forest impacts of temporal intensification

Shifting cultivation around the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve of Mexico, part of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, appears to be intensifying temporally through reductions in crop–fallow cycles, with potential impacts on species diversity in the regenerating forest patches surrounding the reserve. This paper documents the temporal intensity of shifting maize cultivation in the region and links it to the species diversity found in secondary vegetation of different ages following different crop–fallow cycles. It finds that younger secondary growth, which is increasing under intensification, has less diversity in species composition. Simultaneously, the concentration of cultivation practices appears to foster more patches in older and more species-diverse vegetation. The implications for the preservation of the region’s forest remain uncertain, however, given the spatial concentration of open lands along two key axes, one which dissects the reserve.     

扬子江城市群土地利用时空变化及其对陆地生态系统碳储量的影响

扬子江城市群是江苏省城市化进程最快,土地利用变化最明显的区域。研究该地区地利用变化及其对陆地生态系统有机碳储量的影响,对江苏省低碳土地利用研究具有重要意义。该文利用五期30 m土地利用栅格数据、土壤样点数据、林地植被清查数据、农作物数据以及经验数据,分析了1995～2015年扬子江城市群土地利用时空变化、核算了其对有机碳储量的影响。主要结果如下:(1) 1995～2015年间,扬子江城市群约有15. 90%的土地发生了转移,其中,耕地作为主要的转出者,建设用地作为主要的转入者,耕地转移为建设用地的面积约为4 161. 78 km~2,占扬子江城市群耕地转出面积的85. 86%,是主要的土地转移类型;(2) 1995～2015年间,由于土地利用类型转移变化,扬子江城市群有机碳储量总量减少了472. 63×10~4t,其中土壤有机碳储量总量增加110. 28×10~4t,植被碳储量总量减少582. 91×10~4t;(3)建设用地占用耕地是区域有机碳储量减少的主要原因,导致有机碳储量减少406. 40×10~4t,占整个区域有机碳储量减少总量的85. 99%;(4)未来扬子江城市群可通过增加生态用地、控制建设用地、优化土地利用结构,提高区域碳储量,减少对陆地生态系统碳平衡的扰动。     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Non-ferrous metals (Pb, Cu, Zn) needs and city development: the Paris example (1815–2009)

The aim of this study is to explore the urban and/or industrial needs for non-ferrous metals (lead (Pb), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn)) of Paris (France), a highly developed city conurbation, from the beginning of the nineteenth century to the present. Pb was necessary for the development of urban networks (Pb pipes), Zn for Parisian roofs and Cu for the development of boiler making and electricity. This study is based on economic statistics and shows that the situation evolved from a city transforming ores, having its smelters and transforming metal into goods, to a city where metal smelting has been more or less quickly banned, and where only a small activity of metal transformation into metal-containing goods remains. The patterns of the three metals showed slight differences. The deindustrialization of Paris is also accompanied by a change of the supplying areas over time. Ores were always imported from abroad, because of the lack of French non-ferrous metal mines. But foundries, which were first abroad, had developed in France between the late nineteenth and late twentieth century and were again found abroad at the end of the twentieth century. The transformation of metal into goods left Paris to the benefit of other parts of France first, then of abroad, over time. In a second part, the evaluation of Pb consumption per capita in Paris conurbation shows that Pb needs of Paris conurbation were higher than those of France in the nineteenth century. Then, the Paris demand was satisfied and it became lower than that of France. Both the deindustrialisation of Paris conurbation and its lower needs led to a decrease in the relative weight of Paris for non-ferrous metals, compared to other parts of France.     

Sequential impacts of Polynesian and European settlement on vegetation and environmental processes recorded in sediments at Whangapoua Estuary, Great Barrier Island, New Zealand

Whangapoua Estuary, Great Barrier Island, New Zealand, is central to a proposed Marine Reserve, and is currently managed for conservation by the Department of Conservation. This paper describes the sequential impacts of Maori and European people on the process of estuarine vegetation succession in time and space, and the rate of estuarine sedimentation. Multiple cores from one estuary gave confidence in assessing the temporal sequence of vegetation change, but bioturbation and other disturbance factors made it difficult to interpret ¹⁴C dates from the estuarine environment. The modern vegetation zonation pattern on the estuary is an active succession, which has been generated by rapid estuary in-filling, probably initiated as a consequence of erosion following Maori burning of the adjacent forest. European forest clearance for agriculture resulted in a further increase in estuarine sedimentation, and may have re-activated earlier sediments trapped in adjacent swamps. The combined effects of two phases of human exploitation have resulted in large-scale loss of nutrients and top-soil from catchments throughout Great Barrier Island. Conservation management of the estuary should take account of the anthropogenic impacts that have driven the plant succession and created the current vegetation zonation pattern. This pattern is neither static nor ‘natural’, but rather an on-going response to the changing human activities in the surrounding catchment.