道路交通安全和谐管理新模式

针对我国交通安全管理现状及存在问题,提出交通安全和谐管理理念,建立了交通安全和则、谐则体系及和谐互耦的基本管理架构,讨论了交通安全和谐的运作机制及相应的系统。在政策立法、控制手段、管理手段等方面,建立交通安全管理的和则、谐则体系及其耦合机制,通过双规则耦合互动,实现人、车、路与环境之间的和谐统一,以期提高交通安全管理的水平和运输系统的效能,达到使人、车、路三者和谐发展。     

Evaluating a safety culture campaign: Some lessons from a Norwegian case

The focus of the present study is on the implementation and some of the results of an evaluation of a safety culture campaign that partly was aimed at increasing workmate interventions (care). I focus on three groups either working on or with a Norwegian offshore platform: onshore managers, crane operators and process operators. The research questions are: “Has the safety culture campaign contributed to new safety cultures related to care in the three groups, why/why not and what can we learn from this?”. The study indicates that two of the groups have developed new safety cultures that sensitize them to new hazards, motivate and legitimize new preventive practices. In accordance with the interpretive approach to culture in organizations, these changes are discussed in light of members’ of each group’s negotiation over the meaning and relevance of campaign efforts on workmate interventions. Lessons that can be learned from the study are discussed.     

煤矿企业重大灾害预防与安全保障体系构建与运行评价

为提高煤矿企业重大灾害预防与安全保障能力,以典型煤矿企业为例,深入分析企业重大灾害的孕灾环境与类型,确定诱发煤矿重大灾害事故发生的关键因素,并提出构建以“安全文化理念”为1个核心,涵盖“组织”“制度”“人员”“技术”“信息”“装备”“资金”7个要素以及“危险源预控”和“灾害应急救援”2个关键环节的整体安全保障体系;最后,利用事故树模型和层次分析法评价某典型煤矿企业历年来的灾害事故实际情况,提出相关保障体系的持续优化方案,研究结果可为煤炭行业企业开展重大灾害预防与安全保障体系的设计与构建提供参考和借鉴。     

Safety design approach for onshore modularized LNG liquefaction plant

A safety design approach for onshore modularized Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) liquefaction plant is discussed in this paper. As onshore modularized LNG liquefaction plants have both onshore and offshore plants features, and the safety in design for the plant can only be achieved when the project environment and specific design features are properly understood, this paper identifies specific safety design features of each plant (onshore and offshore) and compares the typical “onshore” and “offshore” safety design approaches. Based on this comparison and consideration for modularization features, a safety design approach for onshore modularized LNG liquefaction plant is proposed.     

Environmental conditions for safety work – Theoretical foundations

This paper reviews literature on environmental conditions for safety work. By “environmental conditions for safety work”, we refer to conditions that influence the opportunities an organisation, organisational unit, group, or individual has to control the risk of major accidents and working environment risk. The purpose of the review was to document how international safety science literature uses “environmental conditions” or synonymous concepts, to help build a common conceptualisation of environmental conditions for safety work, and to link environmental conditions to safety work and risks.We did not find a uniform and systematic approach to environmental conditions for safety work in the literature. We therefore turned to a broader range of organisational research literature, where we found a diversity of complementary answers to our research question aimed at investigating the ways in which environmental conditions may constrain or facilitate safety work and thus influence risks. Due to the diversity of these theoretical resources, we have refrained from trying to reduce them to a single model.Our conceptualisation of environmental conditions includes definitions, the “sender–receiver” metaphor, and a selection of theoretical resources. The “sender–receiver” metaphor may be used as a starting point for exploring the ways in which some actors influence the environmental conditions of other actors, and how actors may resist, co-create or re-create the environmental conditions for their own safety work.     

航海技术专业安全管理素质培养方案研究

比较分析了海运物流业的风险程度,指出航海技术专业是隐性的安全工程专业。针对海运物流业对高级船员的“安全管理素质”、“驾驶台安全素质”、“应急反应素质”新需求,指出需用高等工程教育模式替代传统的职业教育模式,采用国际上“回归工程”理念来培养安全管理素质。因而提出了由3个课群构成的安全管理课系,阐述“综合安全管理素质”课群的设计思想,重点给出关键课程《海运安全科学基础》的内容组织和教学要求。研究成果为造就具有自组织自适应能力的海运安全管理素质的高级船员奠定了课系基础和培养机制。     

员工行为安全管理系统的初步构建

现有的企业安全管理主要依靠管理人员监督管理,对员工行为的规范化管理效果有限。针对常见的员工不安全行为,提出建立员工行为安全管理系统促使员工行为规范化,并将其分为4个部分:违规提示系统,危险警报系统,辅助提示系统,紧急制动系统,辅以"自我观察法"作为配套管理措施,将员工意识由"要我安全"向"我要安全"转变,以期能够减少由不安全行为引发的事故,促进企业安全文化的逐步形成。     

基于煤矿安全生产监督研究的博弈分析

对安全生产监督脆弱是造成我国企业安全生产状况十分严峻的重要原因,必须采取相应的措施予以解决。笔者从博弈的视角出发,应用博弈论的相关理论分析现有体制和制度框架下我国企业安全生产的监督效果,提出了一些解决的措施。笔者认为,要改善我国企业安全生产状况的根本出路在于制度创新和激励监督者的“努力”行为。必须实施制度创新,充分提高企业职工自觉进行安全监督的积极性;加重对“违规”行为的处罚力度,只能在短期内减少其“违规”的概率,而不会消除或降低“违规”行为的发生。正确的做法应该是从长远看,加强对监督者“努力”行为的激励力度,才能消除或降低“违规”行为的发生。     

省级生产安全应急救援体系建设方案探讨

省级生产安全应急救援体系是国家生产安全应急救援体系的重要组成部分。为了使省级生产安全应急救援体系的建设方案具有实用性、先进性、经济性和可操作性 ,笔者通过调研许多地方的经济现状、重大危险源和现有的生产安全应急救援资源 ,提出了省级应急救援体系的基本框架和体系在应急救援情况下的响应程序。要在省、市 (地区 )、县三级建立起权威的应急救援指挥机构 ,才能使应急救援体系实现高度的统一指挥 ,灵敏高效 ;充分地整合和利用现有各种救援力量和通讯系统 ,实现资源共享 ,避免重复建设 ;促进“110” ,“119” ,“12 0” ,“12 2”等通讯网络联动 ,并逐步应用GPS ,GIS等资源 ,建立先进的动态跟踪监测 ,可视的信息系统 ;应急救援队伍由3部分组成 ,即政府主办的公共应急救援队伍 (现有 )、政府资助由行业或集团公司主办的专业应急救援队伍、企业自备的应急救援队伍 ;同时对体系中各种机构的组成及其主要职责提出了设想。     

促进企业安全文化系统化发展的思路

为了实现企业安全文化由低级向高级不断发展的目的 ,笔者提出 :应该在我国大力开展“企业安全文化促进计划 (ESCPP)”的研究和推广应用。ESCPP是一种有效促进企业安全文化持续发展而建立的系统化方法和工作体系。完整的ESCPP至少应该包括 :①建立科学合理的企业安全文化的评价指标体系 ;②利用评价指标体系对企业的安全文化现状进行评估 ;③确定企业安全文化发展的目标 ;④制定企业安全文化改进方案 ;⑤进行员工培训 ;⑥实施已制定好的企业安全文化改进方案 ;⑦评估改进方案实施效果 ,持续改进。笔者对ESCPP的这 7个方面进行了论述。     

完善与发展重大突发事件情景构建技术方法的核心问题

重大突发事件情景构建是近年在我国兴起的支撑应急准备能力建设的一种方法和思路,广泛应用于公共安全领域的预案体系管理、应急演练设计、应急体系规划等应急准备行动。但是,随着相关研究和应用的逐年深入,如何将其进一步总结、凝练,进而发展成为突破层级和业务领域的标准化风险管理方法是当前应急管理领域急需解决的问题之一。首先,从重大突发事件情景构建的重要性与必要性入手,总结回顾目前国内外情景构建相关的研究与应用现状;其次,在情景构建理论体系和应用实践总结的基础上,围绕“综合风险评估和专家观点的情景主题筛选”“基于专业知识和真实案例支撑的‘故事化’表达”“基于通用应急任务清单支撑的任务梳理”和“基于任务驱动的风险沟通机制”4个核心理念进行深入分析和讨论;最后,结合目前我国应急管理机构改革的情况,从情景构建标准体系的建立和基于标准的情景构建实践工作出发,提出针对性建议。研究结果可为重大突发事件情景构建标准体系的建立与推广提供理论基础和参考借鉴。     

Computing the limits of risk aversion

Utility theory can be used to model the decision process involved in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of systems that protect against a risk to assets. A key variable in the model is the coefficient of relative risk aversion (or simply “risk-aversion”) which reflects the decision maker's reluctance to invest in such safety systems. This reluctance to invest is the scaled difference in expected utility before and after installing the safety system and has a minimum at some given value of risk-aversion known as the “permission point”, and it has been argued that decisions to sanction safety systems would be made at this point. As the cost of implementing a safety system increases, this difference in utility will diminish. At some point, the “point of indiscriminate decision”, the decision maker will not be able to discern any benefit from installing the safety system. This point is used to calculate the maximum reasonable cost of a proposed safety system. The value of the utility difference at which the decision maker is unable to discern any difference is called the “discrimination limit”.By considering the full range of accident probabilities, costs of the safety system and potential loss of assets, an average risk-aversion can be calculated from the model. This paper presents the numerical and computational techniques employed in performing these calculations. Two independent approaches to the calculations have been taken, the first of which is the derivative-based secant method, an extension of the referred derivative method employed in previous papers. The second is the Golden Bisection Method, based on a Golden Section Search algorithm, which was found to be more robust but less efficient than the secant method. The average risk-aversion is a function of several key parameters: the organisation's assets, the probability and maximum cost of an incident, and the discrimination limit. An analysis of the sensitivity of the results to changes in these parameters is presented. An average risk-aversion of 0.8–1.0 is found for a wide range of parameters appropriate to individuals or small companies, while an average risk-aversion of 0.1 is found for large corporations. This reproduces the view that large corporations will be risk neutral until faced with risks that pose a threat to their viability.     

Perspectives on safety: The impact of group membership,work factors and trust on safety performance in UK and Norwegian drilling company employees

This study is anchored in a contractor company providing well services for platform drilling on the Norwegian (NCS) and the UK Continental Shelves (UKCS). The research project has as its point of departure the potential influences of group level characteristics, structural work factors, trust, and safety behaviour on safety performance. Do perceptions and performance differ across Shelves? Are “nomadic” groups or employees that have more unpredictable shift rotations more exposed to accidents than others? Is high trust and sound safety behaviour enhancing good safety performance? The results are based on questionnaire data from two samples of personnel distributed across three installations on the UKCS and nine on the NCS with a response rate of 67%: N = 170 (UKCS) and N = 621 (NCS). In addition, two focus group interviews were held in each country, with 15 participants in each. The results show that our model makes sense. Shelf shows a significant influence on safety performance in all but the final stage in our five-step logistic regression model, indicating that the effect may be mediated by safety compliance and safety participation. Installations and different work teams have different exposure and structural work factors matter significantly. Somewhat counter-intuitively, employees who have a “nomadic” status and who hold the least regular shift rotations appear to have a lower risk of being involved in incidents. High trust in workmates buffers against incident involvement and the same applies for high safety compliance. The results, challenges and implications for research and safety practitioners are discussed.     

The effect of economic consequences on social judgment and choice: Reward interdependence and the preference for sociability versus competence

Competence and sociability (warmth) are fundamental dimensions of social judgment in organizations. However, these qualities are frequently seen as negatively related, with mixed evidence on which is more important. In three studies (N = 993), we investigated the effects of reward interdependence on the preference for sociability versus competence. We predicted that reward interdependence would elicit a more instrumental, calculative mindset, which in turn, would lead individuals to value competence more. Study 1 surveyed working adults who were in actual work groups and found that those who worked in more (vs. less) reward interdependent environments were more likely to think instrumentally and calculatively when considering potential colleagues. This mindset, in turn, was associated with a greater tendency to value competence over sociability. Studies 2 and 3 used an experimental design and found that when people imagined or anticipated working in a situation in which their economic outcomes depended in part on others, they were more likely to adopt an instrumental focus and choose a “competent jerk” over a “lovable fool.” These results call into question a vast social judgment literature that has made claims about the importance of sociability and related constructs without considering the context, and particularly the reward interdependence, often inherent in organizational contexts.     

基于网格化管理的“防灾型”高校社区管理模式构建

为确保高校社区安全管理的精准、高效、便捷,将社区网格化管理的理论和技术引入高校安全管理中,构建“防灾型”高校社区安全管理模式,结合“微安全”微信平台,链接社区全体人员。根据布拉德安全曲线,将“防灾型”高校社区安全管理模式定位在杜邦安全管理第三阶段;采用问卷调查的形式对管理效果进行考察。研究结果表明:事故发生率降低61.42%,事件处理效率提高74.05%,居民满意度达80.2%;“防灾型”网格社区安全管理模式能够对高校安全信息进行系统化管理,实现管理层与执行层的扁平化、联动管理;安全事故伤害率越来越低。     

对烟花爆竹监管工作的几点思考

结合河南烟花爆竹企业的特点,贯彻落实国务院《烟花爆竹安全管理条例》,提出理顺体制,落实责任,规范准入标准和行政许可;明确省、市、县三级安监职责;新设立生产企业必须达到一定的规模标准;严格执行“三同时”制度,规范经营许可制度,外供烟花爆竹备案制度等。狠抓专项整治,深入开展安全检查,推行安全标准化活动,使企业达到“工厂设计标准化,生产工艺标准化,安全操作标准化,安全管理标准化”,增强企业防范事故能力。联合执法是安全执法的重要形式,由政府组织安监、公安、工商、环保、电力等部门联合行动,建立联席会议制度,定期互通情况,联合查处案件,对非法生产经营的窝点和地下小作坊等,采取严打、取缔行动,确保烟花爆竹安全生产。     

Kletz's legacy for developing countries: Simple systems based on inherently safer design

The now well-known theory surrounding Inherently Safer Design (ISD) developed by Trevor Kletz has spread worldwide thanks to journals and almost unlimited communication between members of process safety all around the globe. This means that developing countries, such as Colombia, now have the possibility of applying it to their specific situations, which can often be resolved if the safety hierarchy is followed in order to attack problems from the design stage, a solution that might not seem instinctive, but is actually effective since there isn't a “reduction” strategy, but a removal of hazards. To apply this methodology to a specific Colombian case study, a previous quantitative risk analysis of an LPG storage tank farm in Colombia is revised and reformulated by developing an optimization (MINLP) based on the principles of inherent safety in order to design the same process (LPG pressurized storage) so that the available engineering tools can be used to mathematically formulate the inherent safety criteria. This allows determining the design conditions and safety measures needed to reduce the likelihood of an incident, being consistent with the Inherent Safety philosophy, which seeks a change of mental structure when designing processes, just like Trevor Kletz proposed and established as a new paradigm for Process Plants/Equipment design. The results of the project allow obtaining a specific optimal configuration of control, wall thickness, operating pressure and tank dimensions, pointing out a decrease of around 20% on the operating pressure.     

How safe must a potential crewed launcher be demonstrated to be before it is crewed?

The US is entering into a new era in space. The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) (Bush, 2004) announced by the US President has been fleshed out during the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) (ESAS Team Final Report, 2005) and work has been underway since then to develop a generation of launch vehicles to implement the preferred 1.5 launch architecture identified in the study. The 0.5 part of the launch set indicates the smaller Crew Launch Vehicle in the new set designated Ares I by NASA. The Ares I was selected by the team because analysis had shown that its complement of a solid first stage, with a liquid H₂/O₂ cryogenic second stage offered the best potential balance among cost, risk and performance. In particular the risk that this conceptual design would impose on the crew once matured was forecasted to be an order of magnitude better than the current matured crewed launcher set, the Soyuz and the Space Shuttle (Isakowitz, 2004). This forecast relied heavily on the experience of the heritage systems upon which the concept was based, specifically the heritage of the Shuttle solid rocket boosters and the experience with cryogenic upper stage engines from the Apollo and Shuttle era. Even with this strong heritage in play, it was recognized by the ESAS Risk Analysts that it would be necessary to mature the design with a set of test flights prior to placing the crew at risk. However the question was and is: “How many test flights are necessary before a crewed flight should be attempted?”This is the question that this paper addresses. That is, it is clear that the number of test flights is related to the desired safety level and that this, in turn, is related to what safety goal should be assigned to enable the crewed flight. Further, demonstration of goal achievement is again in turn related to how much of the heritage base can be captured in the new design. In the extreme, for a completely “new” design, the demonstration would be bounded by the requirements of the identical, repeatable experiments of classical probability theory (Mises, 1957). Even if the tens, or even hundreds of launches that this would require would be financially possible, tests of developmental systems are seldom, if ever, identical and repeatable because the design is modified to address the failure events observed. On the other hand, if the design was completely identical to the heritage then the heritage demonstrated reliability could be subsumed compared to the goal without further testing. This paper addresses the role of heritage in a developmental environment in the establishment of a minimum goal for the initiation of crewed missions and the testing required for its demonstration.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Safety is an inherently inconsistent concept

Some basic principles for philosophical definition work are introduced and then applied to safety and related concepts. Definitions are provided first for comparative safety concepts such as “safer than” and then for the monadic “safe”. It is shown that “safe” is an inherently inconsistent concept, i.e. it cannot be restored to consistency without giving up what we perceive as some of its central elements. The reason for this is that both absolute and relative conceptions of safety are entrenched in common usage of the term. In order to avoid the inconsistency a strategy of terminological ramification is proposed: We should distinguish between the two concepts “reasonably safe” and “absolutely safe”. Any usage of “safe” or “safety” simpliciter should be seen as an abbreviated reference to one of these two closely related, remarkably confusable, but still unmergable concepts.