基于第三方评估的空管安全评估管理模式研究

为促进空中交通管理(ATM)安全评估的有效开展,建立符合我国国情的空管安全评估管理机制。从信息经济学角度分析我国空管安全评估过程中存在的信息不对称问题,研究高等教育评估、质量认证及其他行业安全评估的管理模式。在此基础上,根据我国国情和空管行业特点,提出引入第三方评估的方式进行空管安全评估,并在管理模式的宏观层面采用政府管理模式;微观层面上根据系统工程学理论构建出空管安全评估微观管理框架。结果表明:第三方评估模式与空管安全评估相结合有助于在安全评估过程中提高安全水平的显现能力,降低政府的信息成本。     

神经元网络在安全评价中的应用

利用人工神经元网络进行安全评价可以克服传统的安全评价方法的缺点,提高安全评价方法的精确度和可靠性。笔者在BP神经网络基本原理的基础上,利用机会约束的思想建立了综合安全评价模型;运用反向传播算法和遗传算法对神经元网络进行训练;进而就系统综合安全评价模型进行求解,并对运用神经元网络进行综合安全评价的优点进行了分析。最后,通过对实例进行综合安全评价,得出计算结果,同时也证明将人工神经元网络应用于安全评价的可行性     

基于HERA-JANUS模型的空管人误认知分析

空管人误分类分析是空管人误研究的基础。为了对管制员人误进行系统的分类研究,结合空管业务知识和认知心理学理论,对欧洲航空安全局和美国联邦航空局合作开发的HERA-JANUS模型的工作原理和流程进行较详细地分析。运用该方法模型,对我国一起空管不安全事件案例进行分析后得到3个由管制员所产生的人误差错,并对这3个人误差错分别从人误类型、人误认知、相关因素3方面进行详尽的分析研究,最后得出该不安全事件的21项人误结果。结果表明,HERA-JANUS模型能较全面地从深层次分析管制员的人误,其分类形式也便于开展空管人误统计。     

GB/T 28001-2011新版标准核心要素的理解

GB/T 28000《职业健康安全管理体系》系列标准于2012年开始正式实施,新版标准中对术语、定义和核心要素内容进行了大量的修订,正确地理解和贯彻标准核心要素是应用标准进行企业职业健康安全管理的根本所在,对预防和降低风险,确保职业健康安全管理体系的有效运行有着十分重要的意义.为使组织满足新版标准要求,本文对GB/T 28001-2011《职业健康安全管理体系要求》中核心要素——4.3.1危险源辨识、风险评价和控制措施的确定在内容上进行对比分析,并结合作者在实际工作中的案例和相关的法律法规和其他要求进行阐述,在此基础上对4.3.1要素进行理解,可以使组织对新标准的掌握和应用达到事半功倍的效果.     

尾矿库安全评价初探

尾矿库安全评价应该搞清坝及其附属构筑物的安全状况,评定尾矿库的安全等级,进行危害程度分类,对尾矿库安全生产状况做出综合评价。探讨了尾矿库安全评价应该采用的风险分析方法,建议了～个描述综合评价结果的框架。为了提高尾矿库安全评价质量,应尽快组织编写尾矿库安全评价细则,建立科学、统一、规范、权威的标准。     

基于Web的安全法规符合性评估系统

在分析安全法规符合性评估现状和存在问题的基础上,提出基于Web的安全法规符合性评估系统的技术框架.通过将辨识的安全法规按要素分类、给出量化评估指标体系,构建基于web的安全法规符合性评估系统,实现法规数据库检索、指标体系的计算机辅助定量评估、多人联评、移动终端现场评估、自动生成报告等功能.并以某测井企业为例,开发了安全法规符合性评估系统并已投入使用.应用结果表明,基于web的设计和移动终端的应用使得该系统表现出较好的现场应用性,该系统可提高企业安全法规符合性评估效率,是提高企业安全生产保障能力及满足政府监管要求的有效途径.     

安全科学基本理论规律研究

通过对事物发展过程中的安全与危险的矛盾运动过程分析,抽象出一些基本概念和事故从孕育到发生发展及结束和后效阶段的基本特征,并对部分事例进行了分析。提出了安全科学的统一规律——安全流变与突变论,并初步建立了安全流变论的数学模型     

The safety barometer: How safe is my plant today? Is instantaneously measuring safety level utopia or realizable?

During the last decade, serious accidents have continued to occur in the process industry. Apparently the scenarios of various undesired events leading to those accidents are still not sufficiently controlled. The key question is how potentially hazardous situations develop, what processes form the basis for this development, and how to control them? Safety level is not static but depends on many risk factors that change in presence and intensity over location and time. Safety level is dependent not only on technical process parameters that have immediate effects on the ‘frequency’ or probability of catastrophic consequences, but also depends on equipment integrity degradation, operational and management quality, attitudes, and cultural processes which may change over a prolonged time. The time and human interaction aspects make dynamic risk assessment complex. This paper will outline a conceptual approach using in addition to the regular process parameter signals received, also weak and slowly changing signals from various safety indicators, enabling to keep track of the risk factors. In theory this could lead to obtaining an instantaneous safety level ‘measure’ making possible forecast alarming for an imminent event to occur. Such concept could be regarded as a ‘writing’ safety barometer, or barograph. However, there are quite a number of problems to be solved which in the paper will be discussed.     

我国安全评价机构现状与分析

安全评价机构作为安全评价工作的主体实施机构和连接政府和企业之间在安全管理工作上的桥梁,其组织管理和服务状况对安全评价工作的发展与完善有非常重要的影响。本文对截止2006年12月初国家安全生产监督管理总局批准的甲级资质安全评价机构和各省局批准并报总局备案的乙级资质安全评价机构的数量分布、业务范围分布等内容进行了统计、分析,并提出了安全评价机构发展的建议。     

Measuring safety culture in a research and development centre: A comparison of two methods in the Air Traffic Management domain

This paper describes two safety surveys carried out in an Air Traffic Management Research and Development centre (EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre). The paper discusses the differences and similarities between the two tools with regard to their development, the method of conducting the surveys, the results and their implications. It has been estimated that about 50%¹ to 60%² of accidents and incidents appear to have their roots in the design and development process, and since this is the core business of the EEC, it was deemed necessary to investigate the maturity of safety at the EEC. The challenge for the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre (EEC) was to develop a tool that is relevant to a research and development environment with the objectives of (i) identifying areas of weakness in the safety culture of the organization (ii) helping in developing a Safety Management System. The first objective was addressed by developing a Safety Culture Survey (SCS) tool and surveying the EEC (March, 2003). The second objective was addressed by customizing an existing (SMS) survey tool (RD) for the R&D environment. The SCS is based on traditional measures adapted to ATM and then to R&D, and the River Diagram (RD) is more of a safety management survey, adapted from other industries and already applied to HQ (EUROCONTROL Head Quarters) to examine their commitment to safety. Nevertheless, the two surveys have been compared to see where they agree and where they ‘dissociate’. Overall, the SCS has a broader focus on “softer issues”, i.e. more complex issues of ‘trust in management’. Diagnostically, the River Diagram survey helps the practitioner develop SMS implementation plans more readily than the Safety Culture survey.     

列车运行控制系统安全保障与认证方法研究

为了保证轨道交通系统的运行安全性,系统必须在其投入运行之前进行安全认证,只有取得相应的安全授权才能投入运行。结合CENELEC国际标准和我国应用实践,提出以安全验证和确认为基础的安全保障与认证方法,将安全验证和确认的方法贯穿于系统研制开发生命周期内的每一个阶段,监控系统研制开发的每一个活动,评审系统研制开发的每一个文档,保证相关文档之间的追溯性,针对系统的所有需求进行完备性和充分性测试,才能够确保列车运行控制系统能安全、可靠地投入使用。列车运行控制系统是轨道交通系统的重要组成部分,关系其运行安全和效率2,010年底采用安全验证和确认的方法成功地将LCF-300型列车运行控制系统应用于北京轨道交通亦庄线和昌平线,并顺利通过英国劳氏公司的第三方安全认证。     

基于模糊综合评价法的建筑企业安全管理

由于行业的自身特点,建筑企业安全管理一直是企业管理中的重点和难点。安全评价是企业进行安全管理的基础和依据,传统的安全评价方法,多为一些专家及安全管理人员凭经验得出的定性的结论,既缺乏系统科学的严谨性,在实践中又有很大的局限性。笔者在综合目前的安全评价技术的基础上,结合建筑行业特点,以《施工企业安全生产评价标准》(JGJ/T77—2003)为基础,提出了基于模糊综合理论的安全评价方法,并对该评价模型的的原理、方法进行了研究。该方法可以对不同企业或者同一企业的不同项目之间的安全现状做出量化评价,对促进企业安全管理工作的科学化、规范化、程序化有积极的现实意义。     

Controlled readability of Seveso II company safety documents,the design of a new KPI

Companies often use a substantial quantity of safety-related documents such as the front gate safety flyer, emergency evacuation instructions, work permits, safety procedures, work instructions and policy statements. In many cases the personnel magazines and message board notes also contain safety information. The authors and readers may not be in the same department, premises or cultural group. Both authors and readers are diverse groups when it comes to reading, writing and language skills. Previous research has found that Seveso II companies produce documents that are difficult for their workforce and visitors to understand. Authors do not write systematically to match the reader’s skill level. This may be due in part to the quality and effectiveness of layout guidance, expert linguistic advice and document appraisal systems. These do not in general provide the immediate support needed. Layout suggestions are of limited effectiveness, and availability and usability limits the value of expert advice and appraisal systems. So, without useful feedback, many authors cannot write sufficiently readable documents; to overcome this threshold, they need a quick document readability assessment tool. With such a tool, readability can become a controlled property of safety documents. Large companies may use hundreds or thousands of documents containing safety information. This paper presents a practical approach for the transition to, and monitoring of, controlled readability for all documents related to safety. A new Key Performance Indicator design on readability is proposed.     

矿井通风系统安全评价方法及发展趋势

对国内矿井通风系统安全评价技术常用的模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、灰色关联度分析法、未确知测度评价法、人工神经网络评价法等进行分析和比较,给出了各种方法的数学原理和评价程序与步骤.然后,介绍多种评价方法相结合的复合评价模型及其应用.最后,分析和探讨了评价方法及其应用中存在评价指标与权重标准不统一、多种评价方法对同一资料的评价结果存在差异、缺乏评价支持软件系统等方面的问题;指出安全评价应引入非线性科学等交叉学科理论和开展基于方法集的综合集成评价研究;建立科学合理的评价指标体系和综合集成评价的决策支持系统,形成"人-机-环境-评价对象"一体化评价模式.     

原油油库的安全评价

采用安全检查表和风险矩阵的方法,对某原油油库进行了安全评价。分别介绍两种方法的要点和实施办法。在安全检查表法中,通过资料收集和现场调查确定了油库的最终评价得分及油库的安全等级,指出油库存在的安全隐患。对库区设备,采用风险矩阵的方法进行评价,定量分析设备发生原油泄漏的可能性及其后果。评价结果表明,安全检查表的方法较为实用。风险矩阵评价法可得到定量的结果,利用其结果对库区单项设备进行了风险排序,从而指导检测与维护策略。两种方法应结合使用,可进一步提高油库的安全管理水平。开发的油库的风险评价软件,可作为油库风险管理的辅助手段。     

Have government regulations improved workplace safety? : A test of the asynchronous regulatory effects in China's coal industry, 1995-2006

Problem

Empirical studies on the effectiveness of workplace safety regulations are inconclusive. This study hypothesizes that the asynchronous effects of safety regulations occur because regulations need time to become effective. Safety regulations will work initially by reducing the most serious accidents, and later by improving overall safety performance.

Method

The hypothesis is tested by studying a provincial level aggregate panel dataset for China's coal industry using two different models with different sets of dependent variables: a fixed-effects model on mortality rate, which is defined as fatalities per 1,000 employees; and a negative binominal model on the annual number (frequency) of disastrous accidents.

Results

Safety regulations can reduce the frequency of disastrous accidents, but have not reduced mortality rate, which represents overall safety performance.

Discussion and summary

Policy recommendations are made, including shifting production from small to large mines through industrial consolidation, improving the safety performance of large mines, addressing consequences of decentralization, and facilitating the implementation of regulations through carrying on institutional actions and supporting legislation.

Impact on industry

Until recently, about 4,000 coal miners perished annually in China, demonstrating that workplace safety in China's coal industry is an urgent and important issue. This research provides evidence that safety regulations have asynchronous effects and identifies the priorities in improving safety in China's current coal mining. This may assist the Chinese government to design more effective safety improvement policies and improve the effectiveness of safety regulations and safety performance.     

铁路安全评价方法的探讨与分析

安全是铁路运输永恒的主题.目前,安全评价已经成为当代安全管理中最有成效的一种方法.从安全评价的角度出发,对影响铁路运输安全的因素进行了分析,得出人的因素是影响铁路运输安全的主要因素.在国内外当前铁路安全评价方法研究的基础上进行了探讨与分析,指出了国内外在研究铁路安全及安全评价上的不同,以及目前研究中还存在的一些问题,对铁路安全评价提出了一些见解.     

试谈企业“安全性评价标准”与创评价的整体意识

安全性评价作为安全管理科学的一种方法,已在机电行业广泛开展,并取得一定成效,但通过实践,发现它仍有不足之处。就进一步完善“安全性评价标准”(下称“标准”)谈述见解,并力求以生产工具本质安全化的观点,编制了“产品设计安全性评价检查表”,试用此法,杜绝事故隐患。     

SESAR safety decision-making: Lessons from environmental,nuclear and defense modeling

SESAR, the ‘Single European Sky Air traffic Research’ program, envisages radical changes for European Air Traffic Management (ATM). It integrates and implements new technologies and information processing. This paper examines the safety decision-making in the implementation of SESAR projects. SESAR poses new safety problems because it adopts new paradigms for ATM safety – what lessons are there from environmental, nuclear and defense modeling? These disciplines have also had to confront the limitations of modeling the rates of rare and damaging – even catastrophic – events. A major conceptual change in SESAR is that of automated separation assurance systems. Some existing responsibilities transfer from the controller – either to the pilot or to computer systems – in a progressively phased approach. The major problem for SESAR safety validation is that mixed equipage/operations within a common airspace potentially generate new and different safety issues regarding the validation of safety predictions. A potential way forward uses high-fidelity Human In The Loop Simulations (HITLS) to generate confidence in the resilience of the ATM system. The focus changes from proving safety, i.e. through traditional kinds of validation processes, to extensive resilience testing using these simulations. The aim would be to test how resilient the system is to seeded errors, penetration testing, and crash/stress testing. This would be a high cost process because of the large investments required and the need for long sequences of testing. However, these demanding processes can provide ‘justified belief’ to the decision-maker that the changed ATM system is acceptably safe.     

Enhancing regional process safety management

As industrial operations expand, major incidents continue to affect people, damage facilities, and impact the environment. In the last 20 years, about 50% of these incidents occurred in facilities that had implemented some form of Process Safety Management (PSM) and 50% came about in smaller facilities that did not include such planning (Demichela et al., 2004). The objective of this article is to use PSM principles to create practical recommendations at the regional level, to complement those previously developed for singular facilities. This article compares Strathcona County Emergency Service (SCES) in Alberta with Technical Standards & Safety Authority (TSSA) in Ontario, with respect to safety, facility licensing, permit requirements, risk assessment procedures and land use planning aspects to determine PSM enhancements for SCES. Furthermore, for a better overview, two supplemental provincial organisations in Alberta, namely Alberta Boiler Safety Association (ABSA) and Safety Codes Council (SCC), were also considered. We proposed that SCES could develop more detailed facility-specific licensing procedures, auditing, and inspection. SCES could also provide details of accredited organisations that carry out inspections and audits on their behalf. When reviewing the quantitative risk assessment processes for SCES and TSSA, we recommend that SCES should update their probability data sources used in their cumulative risk assessment study. Based on the authors’ experience and gathered data, the use of additional facility practices such as safety management system, internal audits, and checklists can enhance incident prevention.