‘Short Cut’ Techniques to Incorporate Environmental Considerations into Project Appraisal: An Exploration Using Case Studies

Incorporating environmental and natural resource impacts into the benefit-cost analysis of projects in the developing world now relies on a solid body of theory and recommended techniques, but there remain concerns with how this is done in practice. One aspect arises when time and resource constraints make highly sophisticated analysis difficult or impossible. This paper discusses situations where analyses can be improved using relatively simple ‘short cut’ techniques that substitute for more formal analysis that cannot be undertaken realistically or provide an added perspective on project viability. Case studies are employed to illustrate the techniques, based upon the author's experience with appraisals at the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). It is shown that short cut techniques can dramatically alter the outcome of an appraisal at relatively little cost. However, caution is advised since such techniques can be misused, so that the development of suitable protocols is desirable.     

Modeling wetland loss in coastal Louisiana: Geology,geography, and human modifications

Habitat change in coastal Louisiana from 1955/6 to 1978 was analyzed to determine the influence of geological and man-made changes on landscape patterns within 7.5 min quadrangle maps. Three quantitative analyses were used: principal components anlaysis, multiple regression analysis, and cluster analysis.Regional differences in land loss rates reflect variations in geology and the deltaic growth/decay cycles, man-induced chages in hydrology (principally canal dredging and spoil banking), and land-use changes (principally urbanization and agricultural expansion). The coastal zone is not homogeneous with respect to these variables and the interaction between causal factors leading to wetland loss is therefore locally variable and complex.The relationship between wetland loss, hydrologic changes, and geology can be described with statistically meaningful results, even though these data are insufficient to precisely quantify the relationship. However, these data support the hypothesis that the indirect impacts of man-induced changes (hydrologic and land use) may be as influential as the direct impacts resulting in converting wetlands to open water (canals) or modified (impounded) habitat.Three regions within the Louisiana coastal zone can be defined, based on the potential causal factors used in the analyses. The moderate (mean = 22%) wetland loss rates in region 1 are a result of relatively high canal density and developed area in marshes which overlie sediments of moderate age and depth; local geology acts, in this case, to lessen indirect impacts. On the other hand, wetland loss rates in region 2 are high (mean = 36%), despite fewer man-induced impacts; the potential for increased wetland loss due to both direct and indirect effects of man's activity in these areas is high. Conversely, wetland loss (mean = 20%) in region 3 is apparently least influenced by man's activity in the coastal zone because of sedimentary geology (old, thin sediments), even though these areas have already experienced significant direct habitat alteration and wetland loss.     

Comparative risk analysis for metropolitan solid waste management systems

Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the long-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

A DESCRIPTIVE MODEL FOR ANALYZING PROPOSED COST SHARING RATE CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: This article offers a procedure for identifying the primary effects of financing and cost sharing rates on four basic levels: program, technical, incidence, and comprehensive impacts. A process is developed for identifying these effects based upon two alternative approaches. One method would follow the effects of rate changes through the four levels of impact, another would look in depth at the consequences of rate changes on a particular impact. For this study the information and suggested changes found in the Section 80(c) Study were used to illustrate possible impacts. The process suggested herein could be used in anticipating impacts of any major policy change.     

Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part II: Hybrid life cycle assessment of Swiss glass-packaging disposal

In policy support of municipal solid waste (MSW) management, life cycle assessment (LCA) can serve to compare the environmental or economic impacts of two or more options for waste processing. The scope of waste management LCAs generally focuses less attention on future developments, e.g., where will recycling take place, and more on the environmental performance of prototypes, e.g., the incineration of all waste compared to recycling. To provide more robust support for Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal, scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging are assessed from a life cycle perspective. The scenarios consist in schemes for the disposal of the total amount of Swiss waste glass-packaging, i.e., different combinations of recycling and downcycling in Switzerland or abroad developed in Part I, Meylan et al. (2013). In this article (Part II), the disposal schemes are assessed with respect to eco-efficiency, an indicator that combines total environmental impacts and gross value added in Switzerland. Results show that no policy alternative guarantees environmental impact reductions and gross value added gains under all developments of exogenous constraints. Downcycling to foam glass in Switzerland is not only an environmentally sound disposal option, but it also buffers gross value added losses in case domestic recycling (and thus glass-packaging production in Switzerland) ceases in the future. The substitution of products based on raw materials other than Swiss cullet is the main responsible for change in environmental and economic impacts. Hence, an eco-efficiency maximizing policy should consider the products of disposal schemes. The combination of scenario analysis and eco-efficiency assessment as presented in this paper can be applied to other contexts (i.e., countries, waste fractions).     

Evaluating the Impacts of Mangrove Rehabilitation in Cogtong Bay,Philippines

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been hailed worldwide as vehicles toward sustainable development (SD) in coastal zones. The prominent model by which MPAs operate is through a comanagement approach, a shift from traditional top-down management. This paradigm shift must be reviewed continuously to evaluate its social and ecological impacts, thereby allowing adaptive management. We evaluated the perceived impacts of the Cogtong Bay Mangrove Rehabilitation Project (CBMRP; Philippines) by using 12 perception indicators categorized into 3 comanagement impact criteria (equity, efficiency, and sustainability). We also collected 16 contextual attributes of each respondent to determine the correlates of perceived impacts. Our results showed that there were significant improvements in all indicators under the efficiency criterion but mixed impacts in the equity and sustainability criteria. Access to resource and household income (equity) and fisheries abundance (sustainability) were perceived to have decreased during the last 15 years and were not expected to improve in the future. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the asymmetries of the perceived impacts of the CBMRP were principally caused by disparities in perceptions by gender and by location (Candijay and Mabini). This highlighted the importance of cross-scale institutional linkages between Cogtong Bay municipalities to systematically address baywide management issues. Our results further demonstrated the necessity of integrating gender issues into the evaluation of MPA impacts to ensure a robust evaluation. Finally, we recommend that a rigorous evaluation of MPAs using a common set of impact indicators should be encouraged to allow comparison of studies both spatially and temporally.     

Control Issues in the Design of a Gas Turbine Cycle for CO2 Capture

This article is concerned with control issues related to the design of a semi-closed O ₂/CO ₂ gas turbine cycle for CO ₂ capture. Some control strategies and their interaction with the process design are discussed. One control structure is implemented on a dynamic simulation model using a predictive controller, and simulations assess the performance and compare its merits with a conventional PI structure. The results indicate that it can be advantageous for operability to allow a varying (as opposed to fixed) compressor inlet pressure, at the cost of a more expensive design. Furthermore, the results show that a predictive controller has some advantages with respect to the simpler conventional PI control structure, in particular in terms of constraint handling.     

Traffic mortality and the role of minor roads

Roads have large impacts on wildlife, as they form one of the principal causes of mortality, and disturbance and fragmentation of habitat. These impacts are mainly studied and mitigated on major roads. It is, however, a widespread misconception that most animals are killed on major roads. In this paper, we argue that minor roads have a larger impact on wildlife with respect to habitat destruction, noise load and traffic mortality. We use data on traffic related deaths in badgers (Meles meles) in The Netherlands to illustrate that traffic mortality is higher on minor roads. We ask for a more extensive investigation of the environmental impacts of minor roads. Moreover, we argue that the success of mitigation on roads drastically increases when both major and minor roads are integrated in the planning of traffic flows. Therefore, we propose a strategy based on the concept of a "traffic-calmed area". Traffic-calmed areas create opportunities for wildlife by decreasing limitations for animal movement. We ask for further studies to estimate what size traffic-calmed areas should be to maintain minimum viable animal populations.     

Defining Indicators and Standards for Tourism Impacts in Protected Areas: Cape Range National Park,Australia

Visitors’ perceptions of impacts and acceptable standards for environmental conditions can provide essential information for the sustainable management of tourist destinations, especially protected areas. To this end, visitor surveys were administered during the peak visitor season in Cape Range National Park, on the northwest coast of Western Australia and adjacent to the iconic Ningaloo Reef. The central focus was visitors’ perceptions regarding environmental conditions and standards for potential indicators. Conditions considered of greatest importance in determining visitors’ quality of experience included litter, inadequate disposal of human waste, presence of wildlife, levels of noise, and access to beach and ocean. Standards were determined, based on visitors’ perceptions, for a range of site-specific and non-site-specific indicators, with standards for facilities (e.g., acceptable number of parking bays, signs) and for negative environmental impacts (e.g., levels of littering, erosion) sought. The proposed standards varied significantly between sites for the facilities indicators; however, there was no significant difference between sites for environmental impacts. For the facilities, the standards proposed by visitors were closely related to the existing situation, suggesting that they were satisfied with the status quo. These results are considered in the context of current research interest in the efficacy of visitor-derived standards as a basis for protected area management.     

Allocation of Streamflow Depletion Impacts under Nonlinear Conditions

A method is proposed for the equitable allocation of impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow. The method is intended for cases in which the pumping activity of multiple entities has impacts on streamflow and these impacts are computed by perturbation. It is shown that when the response of streamflow to pumping is nonlinear, simple methods for impact calculation can fail. The proposed method is developed for the case when there are four entities that impact streamflow. The method relies on the calculation of impacts by perturbation of the simulation model from different base pumping levels. When four entities are evaluated, 16 runs of the simulation model are required. It is shown the proposed method produces estimated impacts for each individual entity that are equitable because they meet the requirement that the impacts of each entity sum to the total impacts of all entities acting together and the impacts attributed to each entity do not depend on the order of calculation. A brief example demonstrates the approach.     

Assessing the Ecological Footprint of a Large Metropolitan Water Supplier: Lessons for Water Management and Planning towards Sustainability

Faced with the task of communicating their combined social, environmental and economic impact, water service providers are seeking to report overall performance in an aggregated way. Such a methodology must be scientifically robust, easily communicated and allow benchmarking of performance while reflecting a transition towards sustainability. In this paper the ecological footprint (EF) is calculated for Sydney Water Corporation (SWC), using input-output analysis and land disturbance in an innovative approach that overcomes problems identified in the original EF concept. This pilot study has allowed SWC to gain some valuable insights into its impacts: SWC's annual EF is about 73 100 ha in terms of land disturbance. Of this, 54 000 ha are projected to become disturbed as a consequence of climate change, with the remainder of 19 100 ha being disturbed on SWC's premises (2400 ha) and on those of upstream suppliers (16 700 ha). Total on-site impacts equal 9300 ha, while indirect land disturb ance contributes 63 600 ha. The EF appears promising as an educational and communi cation tool and may have potential as a decision support tool. However, further research is needed to incorporate downstream impacts into the EF, which would have significant benefits to SWC in terms of assessing and communicating the organization's overall progress towards sustainability.     

The impact of human frequentation on coastal vegetation in a biosphere reserve

We aimed to assess the impacts of recreational trampling on rare species, plant communities and landscape structure in the Iroise Biosphere Reserve (western France). Focusing on coastal grasslands, we first identified indicators discriminating human-induced short grasslands (i.e. maintained short by intensive trampling) from natural short grasslands (i.e. maintained by environmental constraints): the presence of lichens and succulent or woody species, which are known to be highly sensitive to trampling, as well as a shallow soil were good indicators of natural short grasslands. Recreational activities affected the majority of plots containing rare species, but one third of rare species (according to their habitat preference) appeared currently not threatened by recreational activities. The other rare species were found in grasslands with low trampling intensity and were not found in grasslands with greater trampling intensity. One lichen species (Teloshistes flavicans) was not affected by trampling intensity, while two plants species (Scilla verna and Ophioglossum lusitanicum) showed higher abundances when trampling was low to medium. When it occurs in natural short grasslands, tourist trampling reduced drastically plant species richness. However, when considering maritime high grasslands, we observed that species richness was higher under low trampling vs. no trampling, but decreased at higher trampling intensity. At a landscape scale, the mean annual rate of path creation was about 1.6% and tourist trampling has already completely destroyed 3.5ha of natural coastal vegetation. Trampling of maritime-high grassland has also created 31ha of short grasslands, which represent 50.8% of the whole short grassland habitat of the island. Moreover trampling affected respectively, 41% and 15% of natural short grasslands and maritime-high grasslands. One of the main suggestions for managers to minimise trampling impacts should be to protect areas of rocky soil covered by short grassland that are still non-trampled and not impacted. Fortunately, this appears compatible with a relatively free access of visitors to coastal areas, as tourists can be redirected towards maritime-high grasslands, an habitat which is less impacted by tourism in terms of affected surface, soil cover, loss of species, or presence of rare species host.     

Evidence of the impacts of the national housing programme on the accessibility of the low‐income population in Rio de Janeiro

The Brazilian shift from a primarily rural to a more urban society has created major challenges that public policies must address. One of the most relevant challenges is deep social exclusion in urban areas, especially in terms of adequate housing and access to urban opportunities (e.g., jobs, housing, and services). In this context, land use and transport planning play a critical role in the sustainable development agenda. The work presented here analyses the accessibility of low‐income dwellings licenced under the Brazilian housing programme to the low‐income population. To evaluate the accessibility of the programme's target population, a case study was conducted in the city of Rio de Janeiro, where 58,000 homes licensed under the programme were analysed using GIS tools in terms of the present public transport network and the location of the homes. The amount of time it takes to access public transport on foot and the homes’ locations in relation to major urban opportunities were also analysed. Finally, the same analysis was performed for the future transport network, and the results of the two analyses were compared to identify the scope of the legacy generated by investments in preparation for the 2016 network.     

The nature of cumulative impacts on biotic diversity of wetland vertebrates

There is no longer any doubt that cumulative impacts have important effects on wetland vertebrates. Interactions of species diversity and community structure produce a complex pattern in which environmental impacts can play a highly significant role. Various examples show how wetlands maintain the biotic diversity within and among vertebrate populations, and some of the ways that environmental perturbations can interact to reduce this diversity.The trophic and habitat pyramids are useful organizing concepts. Habitat fragmentation can have severe effects at all levels, reducing the usable range of the larger habitat generalists while threatening the genetic integrity of small, isolated populations. The complexity of trophic interactions, and the propensity, or necessity, of vertebrates to switch from one food source to another—something we know little about—makes using food chain support as a variable for predicting environmental impacts very questionable.Historical instances illustrate the effects of the accumulation of impacts on vertebrates. At present it is nearly impossible to predict the result of three or more different kinds of perturbations, although long-range effects can be observed. One case in point is waterfowl; while their ingestion of lead shot, harvesting by hunters during migration, and loss of habitat have caused waterfowl populations to decline, the proportional responsibility of these factors has not been determined.Further examples show multiplicative effects of similar actions, effects with long time lags, diffuse processes in the landscape that may have concentrated effects on a component subsystem, and a variety of other interactions of increasing complexity. Not only is more information needed at all levels; impacts must be assessed on a landscape or regional scale to produce informed management decisions. I conclude that a system of replicate wetland reserves that are allowed to interact naturally with the surrounding landscape will be more effective in preserving biotic diversity than isolated sanctuaries.     

Fitness Landscapes and the Precautionary Principle: The Geometry of Environmental Risk

The Precautionary Principle is a legal mechanism for managing the environmental risk arising from incomplete scientific knowledge of a proposal's impacts. The Precautionary Principle is applied to actions that carry with them the potential for serious or irreversible environmental change. The model proposed in this paper draws on methods used in a range of disciplines for modeling (potentially highly nonlinear) interactions between multiple parts of a complex system. These methods have been drawn together under the common mathematical umbrella of Fitness Landscape Theory. It is argued that the model, called “Environmental Impact Fitness Landscapes,” allows statements about the sensitivity of the gross effect from a set of impacts to be made when the number of impacts in the set, and/or their degree of interaction, is varied. It is argued that this can be achieved through identification of “meta” or “emergent” properties of the set itself, without reference to the specific causal chains determining behavior in specific instances. While such properties are very general, they may at least allow for the parameterization of the effects of sets of impacts where interactions are highly uncertain and empirical data severely limited, i.e., situations that would typically invoke the Precautionary Principle.     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

Learning and adaptation in the management of waterfowl harvests

A formal framework for the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests was adopted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1995. The process admits competing models of waterfowl population dynamics and harvest impacts, and relies on model averaging to compute optimal strategies for regulating harvest. Model weights, reflecting the relative ability of the alternative models to predict changes in population size, are used in the model averaging and are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and observations of population size. Since its inception the adaptive harvest program has focused principally on mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), which constitute a large portion of the U.S. waterfowl harvest. Four competing models, derived from a combination of two survival and two reproductive hypotheses, were originally assigned equal weights. In the last year of available information (2007), model weights favored the weakly density-dependent reproductive hypothesis over the strongly density-dependent one, and the additive mortality hypothesis over the compensatory one. The change in model weights led to a more conservative harvesting policy than what was in effect in the early years of the program. Adaptive harvest management has been successful in many ways, but nonetheless has exposed the difficulties in defining management objectives, in predicting and regulating harvests, and in coping with the tradeoffs inherent in managing multiple waterfowl stocks exposed to a common harvest. The key challenge now facing managers is whether adaptive harvest management as an institution can be sufficiently adaptive, and whether the knowledge and experience gained from the process can be reflected in higher-level policy decisions.     

Identifying Opportunities for Decision Support Systems in Support of Regional Resource Use Planning: An Approach Through Soft Systems Methodology

/ Regional resource use planning relies on key regional stakeholder groups using and having equitable access to appropriate social, economic, and environmental information and assessment tools. Decision support systems (DSS) can improve stakeholder access to such information and analysis tools. Regional resource use planning, however, is a complex process involving multiple issues, multiple assessment criteria, multiple stakeholders, and multiple values. There is a need for an approach to DSS development that can assist in understanding and modeling complex problem situations in regional resource use so that areas where DSSs could provide effective support can be identified, and the user requirements can be well established. This paper presents an approach based on the soft systems methodology for identifying DSS opportunities for regional resource use planning, taking the Central Highlands Region of Queensland, Australia, as a case study.