Metalliferous sediments in the Atlantis II Deep—Assessing the geological and economic resource potential and legal constraints

Projected increases in demand and thus increasing metal prices have brought the exploration and exploitation of marine mineral resources back into focus. The Atlantis II Deep, located in the central Red Sea between Saudi Arabia and Sudan, is one of the largest marine sulfide deposits known, with high concentrations of metals such as zinc, copper, silver and gold. However, little is known about the economic potential of marine minerals as well as the legal constraints. Our geological assessment shows that the deep is similar in grades and scale to large land-based deposits. Its economic potential is far from negligible. The total present value of possible gross revenues for the four metals zinc, copper, silver and gold ranges from 3.03 to 5.29 billion US$, depending on the assumptions made concerning future price development, mass calculation and discount rate. From a legal perspective, a general duty to cooperate in the exploration and exploitation of non-living resources located in disputed maritime areas is identified in both customary international law and in UNCLOS. It is submitted that a joint development agreement is one means of ensuring compliance with this duty in general and in the case of the Atlantis II Deep in particular.     

On technical change in the elasticities of resource inputs

This article analyses growth of an economy where the substitutability between non-renewable and renewable resource inputs changes over time. We allow for exogenous technical change in the elasticity of substitution (EoS) between these two types of resources as well as for biased factor-augmenting technical change. Our main results are: (1) sustained technical change in the EoS is enough to overcome resource constraints; (2) productivity-enhancing technical change is most beneficial when directed to the resource which is currently most important for production; (3) the speed of productivity-enhancing technical change is crucial for its usefulness to overcome resource constraints; (4) sustainability depends critically on the type of technical change.     

Cultivating collaboration: Lessons from initiatives to understand and manage cumulative impacts in Australian resource regions

Australia has experienced rapid development within its resource regions, with traditional mining sectors like coal, iron-ore and natural gas expanding and new industries such as coal seam gas emerging. As a result, there is an increasing prevalence and awareness of the cumulative impacts of the extractive resource industries on the society, environment and economy of these regions. Collaborative governance is emerging as a means of addressing cumulative impacts. This article undertakes an analysis of 30 case studies of collaborative governance in the resources sector of Australia. The initiatives analysed range from those focussed on information exchange and coordination to higher degrees of collaboration that involve shared resources and shared risks. The study demonstrates that there are challenges in using collaborative approaches to tackle cumulative impacts, but that significant benefits can be realised. The study highlights the need to nurture and cultivate collaborative relationships in order to provide the foundation for long-term solutions.     

Optimal resource extraction contract with adverse selection

This paper studies the design of a mining concession contract as a multi-period adverse selection problem where production is the depletion of a non renewable resource. Compared with symmetric information, we show that overproduction is optimal in the terminal phase of the resource extraction program. Moreover, asymmetric information lengthens the contract duration but reduces the scarcity rent.     

Geologic vs. geographic constraints on cement resources

This study evaluates the importance of geologic and geographic factors in constraining the location of limestone mining operations for the production of cement in the Great Lakes region of the United States. Cities and their infrastructure require abundant cement, which is manufactured from limestone and other quarry products, but expansion of cities limits the locations of these operations. Possible locations of limestone and cement operations are controlled by geologic factors including distribution and mineralogy of geologic formations as well as depth of overburden, and geographic factors including location of wetlands, cities, and other surface features that preclude development of quarries and manufacturing operations. Overlay analysis was used to evaluate the importance of these factors. Results show that, although limestone underlies about a third of the region, almost 50 percent of this limestone is unavailable for quarrying due to coverage by the built environment, protected natural areas, or excessive overburden thickness. When characteristics such as limestone quality are also accounted for, accessible resources shrink to as little as 2 percent of the total land area. Although the remaining 2 percent of land area may supply local needs for some years, geologic factors clearly must be included in long-term regional land use planning.     

Social dimensions of mining: Research,policy and practice challenges for the minerals industry in Australia

The social dimensions of the mining industry are increasingly acknowledged as critical to business success, yet remain the least understood aspect of the business concept of sustainable development—the ‘triple bottom line’ of economy, environment and society.     

A review of the PGM industry,deposit models and exploration practices: Implications for Australia's PGM potential

Australia is prospective for platinum group metal (PGM) mineralisation (in particular primary magmatic reef, primary magmatic by-product, late magmatic and hydrothermal, and alluvial placer type) but its known PGM endowment is negligible compared to that of South Africa, Russia, the USA and Canada. Most Australian PGM projects are operated by mid-cap or junior companies and form part of larger, more diverse project portfolios held by these explorers. Most projects were ‘hot’ while market conditions were favourable. However, as other metals became ‘fashionable’ and market conditions for PGM changed, so did the focus of these companies. Pure PGM companies are rare in Australia. The search for and development of PGM-only deposits in Australia are high risk business activities. No new primary PGM deposits have been discovered since the mid to late 1980s and none of the significant deposits that were discovered or evaluated in the 1980s have been mined. This review suggests that at least several A$10 million but more likely several A$100 million were sunk into PGM exploration and development projects but none advanced to the mining stage. The viability of Australian PGM projects is very sensitive to (1) metal prices, (2) the US$/A$ exchange rate, and (3) large capital expenditure requirements relative to the small size of Australian PGM-only deposits. Most PGM-only projects were initiated at times of high PGM prices. However, advanced exploration, feasibility studies and project development always lagged behind the price booms. South Africa, Russia and Canada contain approximately 98% of the known global PGM reserves. This situation has a very negative effect on the Australian PGM industry as the well-endowed nations continue to receive the lion's share of exploration spend and new projects.     

Small-scale mining in Ghana: The government and the galamsey

This paper argues that the current formalization system for small-scale gold miners in Ghana has been undermined and the small-scale mining laws no longer capture the reality of the sector’s activities. The paper will examine the small-scale mining system and shows that registered and unregistered actors operate not only in parallel but are actually intertwined and highly dependent on one another. The paper shows that the perceived dichotomy of formal and informal actors in the sector does not actually exist. The sector has instead evolved into a highly intertwined group of semi-formal sectors operating with varying degrees of legal registrations. The paper concludes that political leniency and law enforcement corruption has resulted in a booming small-scale gold system under poor government control. The paper recommends that politicians move to enact reforms to regularize the small-scale mining sector and curtail ubiquitous environmental and occupational safety problems. Anti-corruption initiatives and law enforcement reforms are the most urgent. However, reforming the laws is also necessary to capture and regulate the technological innovations the sector is currently using.     

The legal environmental risk analysis (LERA) sample of mining and the environment in Turkish legislation

As advancing technology and increasing demands for natural resources continue to mount pressure on the environment, environmental conservation and sustainable management have become ever more important. Individual countries have been increasingly taking action to reduce environmental destruction caused by human activities in an attempt to find a balance in between the necessary exploitation of resources and environmental conservation. In Turkey, the struggle between environmental conservation and mining activities is set within the legal context, with the requisite legal regulations (which describe various procedures) in the midst of being updated or renewed. The legal environmental risk analysis (LERA), beginning by discussing the main legal regulations of environmental conservation in relation to mining activities, defines basic environmental components which form the basis of environmental conservation in relation to mining, and analyzes the impact of mining on each component. The analysis (LERA) finishes with an evaluation of the components as they currently stand and makes some suggestions for the improvement of insufficient regulations.     

The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints

At first ‘sustainable mining’ could be perceived as a paradox—minerals are widely held to be finite resources with rising consumption causing pressure on known resources. The true sustainability of mineral resources, however, is a much more complex picture and involves exploration, technology, economics, social and environmental issues, and advancing scientific knowledge—predicting future sustainability is therefore not a simple task. This paper presents the results from a landmark study on historical trends in Australian mining, including ore milled, ore grades, open cut versus underground mining, overburden/waste rock and economic resources. When complete data sets are compiled for specific metals, particular issues stand out with respect to sustainability—technological breakthroughs (e.g. flotation, carbon-in-pulp), new discoveries (e.g. uranium or U), price changes (e.g. Au, boom/bust cycles), social issues (e.g. strikes), etc. All of these issues are of prime importance in moving towards a semi-quantitative sustainability model of mineral resources and the mining industry. For the future, critical issues will continue to be declining ore grades (also ore quality and impurities), increased waste rock and associated liabilities, known economic resources, potential breakthrough technologies, and broader environmental constraints (e.g. carbon costs, water). For this latter area, many companies now report annually on sustainability performance—facilitating analysis of environmental sustainability with respect to production performance. By linking these two commonly disparate aspects—mining production and environmental/sustainability data—it becomes possible to better understand environmental sustainability and predict future constraints such as water requirements, greenhouse emissions, energy and reagent inputs, and the like. This paper will therefore present a range of fundamental data and issues which help towards quantifying the resource and environmental sustainability of mining—with critical implications for the mining industry and society as a whole.     

Reforming small-scale mining in sub-Saharan Africa: Political and ideological challenges to a Fair Trade gold initiative

In sub-Saharan Africa, artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) has caused a range of environmental, social and economic problems. Most of the donor support pledged to improve conditions in the sector to date, however, has failed to facilitate marked improvements, in large part because emphasis has been placed on technical interventions; at the same time, impoverished miners’ needs and concerns have been seriously overlooked. It is against this background that this paper critically examines the underpinnings and potential of “Fair Trade gold” as a solution to many of the problems plaguing the ASM sector and a mechanism for alleviating the hardships of its operators. Unlike the majority of ASM-support support measures implemented in the past, “Fair Trade gold” is entrenched in the discourse of “partnership” and “participation”. To ensure its effectiveness initiatives must be adapted according to the specificities of ASM.     

Natural resources,governance and institutional quality: The role of resource funds

This paper investigates the relationship between resource funds, governance and institutional quality in resource-rich countries. The study is motivated by the relatively recent and inconclusive debate on resource funds and on their role in the addressing of the “resource curse”. The estimation results suggest that resource funds may be associated with governance and institutional quality improvements. The analysis complements the debate on the tools of addressing the “resource curse” and on the determinants of governance and institutional quality. The findings remain important for their policy implications. The estimation results suggest that resource funds may prove useful tools in the hands of the policy makers in the attempt to address governance and institutional quality deterioration induced by resource abundance.     

Multiproduct mine output and the case of mining waste utilization

This article addresses the concepts of economies of scope and multiproduct production, subadditivity and transray convexity as it applies to the mining industry. The article goes on to expand these concepts to include the case of mining waste utilization. It discusses how the modification of mining wastes into a marketable product can develop a relationship across the cost functions of the modified mining waste and ore production and how this interrelationship affects the profit maximizing condition. It discusses four possible outcomes from mining waste modification and its development into marketable products on the profitability and production of ore by the firm. Finally, it discusses mining waste utilization effects on rehabilitation costs and the potential for a decrease in the adverse community effects due to mine closure.     

Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan

Low wellhead domestic gas prices over the past few years have led to the beginning of a shortage in natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan. Gas demand steadily rises in all sectors for being an economical fuel as compare to substitutes. In the view of foregoing consumption trend, the demand for gas is expected to grow with a higher pace during the 2010s. On the contrary, indigenous gas reserves are running out and cannot keep up with the demand. This paper examines the extent of upstream activities in different petroleum policy regimes. The wellhead price for indigenous gas is compared with the prices of alternatives (for example, gas import prices). In order to put the problem in perspective, the relationship between wellhead gas price and cumulative gas reserves in Pakistan are analyzed and we find that the looming gas shortage can be ameliorated in the short-run and eliminated in the long-run through incentivized wellhead price. To put it briefly, the idea is mooted to first take advantage of huge domestic reserves to ensure competitive consumer prices for gas. The findings are applicable to several other economies with under-developed natural resources.     

Iron ore spot price volatility and change in forward pricing mechanism

To examine the impact of the change in forward pricing mechanism on the volatility of iron ore spot prices, we model the iron ore daily price of Platts IODEX from October 7, 2008 to September 21, 2012. The identified iron ore spot price tends to be less volatile after the introduction of quarterly pricing mechanism. Our main approaches are as follows: (i) to decompose the spot price of Platts IODEX into two subsamples and relate the result of the structural break to the date of the switch in the iron ore forward pricing mechanism; (ii) to apply the EGARCH (1, 1) model to simultaneously capture the long memory and the asymmetric effect on the volatility of the iron ore spot price; and (iii) to delineate the news impact curve to further interpret the asymmetric effect.     

An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals

In recent years, commodity markets show a large amount of volatility and substantial price jumps, indicating an increasing economic scarcity in many cases. As this scarcity makes commodity procurement a critical issue for national economies, industry sectors and manufacturing companies, a number of criticality indices have been presented and utilized in science as well as in practice. These indices are mostly based on an aggregation of different key figures, both qualitative and quantitative. However, the weighting of the different factors is in most cases arbitrary or based on rough estimates.     

Some observations on copper yields and ore grades

The paper examines trends in the average copper content of mined ores over the years. It has tended to decline over the long term, but by no means evenly. US averages are not typical of global averages, at least in the past four decades. Those have been both higher, and less volatile than in the US. One reason for falling averages is a change in the type of deposit mined, with a rise in the share of relatively low grade porphyry deposits. The different nature of their deposits is reflected in marked differences in grades between the different continents. African and Australian average grades are higher than the global average, and changes in the share of Central Africa in global output have affected the global average grade. Yields are have been consistently lower in North America than elsewhere, and Latin American average grades have trended downwards, reflecting both the ageing of mines and the rising share of production from porphyry deposits. Typically the yield of mines declines over time as mining proceeds. The average copper content of ore deposits is usually below the average yield of the ore accessed in the early years of production. The initial grades of new mines have not declined over the past forty years, and there has been no perceptible tendency for the average grade of porphyry deposits brought into production to decline over time. There is no apparent correlation between average grade and deposit size, but mine operators tend to exploit economies of scale to offset low grades. The relationship between the annual percentage yields (the head grade) and the reserve grades of deposits is not static. In recent years head grades have fallen closer to reserve grades. The relationship may be affected by movements in metal prices. Although the evidence about the influence of prices is not clear-cut, it does suggest that prices and cut-off grades may be inversely related. As many ores contain other valuable metals besides copper, copper yields will sometimes be subordinated to the extraction of these other metals. Copper equivalent grades have not moved in the same way as copper grades alone.     

Green accounting and sustainability of the Peruvian metal mining sector

This paper estimates the true economic income of Peru’s metal mining sector for the period 1992–2006, using a model of green economic income based on Hamilton (2000). The total depletion of natural capital caused by metal mining is calculated by estimating, on the one hand, the depreciation of mining resources (using the Hotelling rent approach) and, on the other, the environmental degradation provoked by metal mining activities. The results show that the total loss of natural capital represents between 31% and 51% of the metal mining GDP and between 2% and 4.9% of Peru’s GDP. On the other hand, correcting the usual GDP measure produced by the traditional National Account System (NAS) for the total loss of natural capital caused by mining activities shows that the GDP traditional measure overestimated by 51–64% the true economic income generated by Peruvian's metal mining sector during the period 1992–2006. The importance of the generation, taxation, and disposition of mining economic rents for Peru’s sustainable development in the future is also discussed.     

Chinese resource security policies and the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market

This paper reviews the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market in the wake of the rise of the Chinese steel industry. Prior to the 2000s, this market was characterised by two key features—high firm-level concentration on both the producer and consumer sides, and price determination through annually negotiated benchmark pricing between Australian mining and Japanese steel firms. However, owing to rapid growth in the Chinese steel industry and its emergence as the region's principal iron ore consumer, the Asia-Pacific iron ore market has been dramatically restructured during the last decade. This process has been accelerated since 2005 by Chinese governmental resource security policies, which have sought to address current record high iron ore prices through the use of foreign investment to sponsor new market entrants and the formation of an import cartel amongst the Chinese steel firms. This paper evaluates how these policies have driven restructuring in the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, through an analysis of the growth of China's steel industry, Chinese resource security policies aimed at lowering iron ore import costs, and their effects upon the regional market's ownership structure and price determination mechanisms. It argues that while Chinese investment and cartelisation policies have catalysed significant changes to the ownership and pricing structures of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, they have carried only mixed benefits for the Chinese steel industry's resource security.     

Uncertainty in exhaustible natural resource economics: The irreversible sunk costs of Hotelling

According to Pindyck (2007) there are three important aspects of uncertainly in environmental economics: (1) the benefits and costs of environmental policy tend to be highly non-linear, (2) environmental policy tends to involve important irreversibilities, where investment in pollution abatement can impose an irreversible, sunk cost on society, and where certain pollutants can stay in the environment forever and build up to cause even more future harm in which case investment in abatement can cause an irreversible, sunk benefit to society, and (3) environmental policy involves long time horizons and yet the discount rate society should use is uncertain for determining the net present value of costs and benefits of pollution abatement. These same uncertainties also affect non-renewable, exhaustible, natural resource economics and in particular the use of the Hotelling rule: (1) the costs, benefits and transversality conditions of using the Hotelling rule can be highly non-linear, (2) the Hotelling rule involves important sunk cost irreversibilities, which will be explained here, and (3) the Hotelling rule can involve long time horizons with uncertain discount rates. All three of these problem make it extremely difficult for a market to use in any way the Hotelling rule, yet by the sheer number of articles in non-renewable natural resource economics, one would believe that it is the basis of all resource markets. In this article, we concentrate on the sunk cost irreversibilities of using the Hotelling rule. The idea of the Hotelling rule is to optimally store a non-renewable resource, but the optimization is highly dependent on the actual reserves that are available to extract. However, reserves of underground exhaustible resources are often unobservable at the beginning stages of extraction which makes using the Hotelling Rule difficult.