A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?

This paper develops a stylized supply–demand model for a mineral/nonrenewable commodity. It embodies important distinctions between short-run and long-run mineral supply and the derived demand for minerals as intermediate goods in production sectors with differing intensities of use. This framework is used to address the question: under what conditions might one expect to observe super cycles (i.e. cycles with a period of 20–70 years) in minerals prices? A plausible time path for GDP$GDP$ growth and the structural transformation that accompanies economic development in an emerging region is specified. Using these drivers and reasonable supply and demand parameters, price dynamics are simulated. The result is an asymmetric price cycle with a peak price that is about 250% above trend and an expansion phase that lasts for about 20 years. Thus, this simple model is capable of producing a single cycle with a frequency and amplitude in the range estimated in the empirical literature on super cycles. As other regions reach the development ‘take-off' phase, additional super cycles should emerge.     

Resource windfalls,investment, and long-term income

We develop a simple mechanism to explain why resource windfalls are likely to lower income levels in the long run. Most mineral-producing countries, in particular, fail to maintain incentives for savings and investment after positive resource shocks. Our analysis focuses on this savings–investment transmission channel through which resource rents affect welfare, and develops an OverLapping-Generations (OLG) model with features from endogenous growth theory to study the mechanism. In this model, savings adjust downwards to income from natural resources, investments adjust to savings, and subsequently the level of overall productivity falls. Resource affluence has two counteracting effects on income. In the short term, resource wealth augments income, but in the long-term, it decreases income through a crowding-out effect on knowledge creation.     

Broadening the statistical search for metal price super cycles to steel and related metals

During the past five years, industry analysts have proclaimed that metal prices are in the early phase of a ‘super cycle,’ driven primarily by Chinese industrial expansion. Academic economists have generally been very skeptical about the presence of long cycles. A time-series econometric analysis by Cuddington and Jerrett [2008. Super cycles in real metals prices? IMF Staff Pap. 55(4), in press], however, has used band-pass filtering techniques to isolate super cycles in the prices of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (the ‘LME6’). This paper extends the search for super-cycle behavior to three additional metal products that are critical in the early phases of industrial development and urbanization: steel, pig iron, and molybdenum (a key ingredient in many steel alloys). There is strong evidence of super cycles in these three metals, although their timing differs to some extent from the super cycles found for the LME6.     

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining in Burkina Faso: Suggestion of multi-agent methodology as a complementary support in elaborating a policy

In order to better manage artisanal and small-scale gold mining, the Burkinabe authorities have planned to build a suitable methodological support as an aid to elaborating appropriate policies and actions. The developed methodology concerns (a) at a spatial level, the generation and analysis of a geological resources map needed by the artisanal miners and (b) at a socioeconomic level, analysis of the miners' activity. This paper reports and discusses the results of our suggestion to also introduce the use of an approach known as multi-agent system (MAS) as a complementary part of this initial methodology, at a downstage level to the above two analysis stages. MAS methodology could be used to develop simulation models to forecast the future of the activity. MAS is appropriate for describing the dynamics of systems where it is impossible to obtain all output data of a model from a purely mathematical or statistical transformation of input data. Our suggestion involves (i) demonstrating the capacity of the approach to simulate all parameters needed by mining policy makers and (ii) evaluating to what extent the methodology is accepted by them, as well as, at a more scientific level, the literature regarding mining system simulation.     

遵化地质灾害发育特征及其防治措施

为了查明遵化市地质灾害分布规律和发生机制,通过野外实际调查和搜集相关资料等方法,对辖区内各种地质灾害进行了细致的分析和研究,阐述了产生地质灾害的地质条件和诱发因素,并对今后地质灾害的发展趋势做了可靠性的预测,对地质灾害防治提出建设性意见。遵化市地质灾害以地面塌陷和泥石流危害最大,其防治措施应以预防为主,加强监管力度,并积极做好工程防治工作。     

山西地质旅游资源的分布特征及总体规划

山西省地质旅游资源丰富,不同地域分布着各具特征的地质景观。地质旅游资源特征明显、种类繁多,蕴藏着巨大的旅游潜力。在认真探讨各类地质景观分布特征的基础上,针对这些资源的开发现状和保护程度,提出了该省地质旅游线路规划、资源开发规划及地质旅游区的环境治理和保护规划方案。     

基于公众认知的地质遗迹保护与开发——以泰山地质公园为例

随着遗产旅游与遗产产业的兴起,以保护地质遗迹为主旨的地质公园如雨后春笋般在国内外发展起来。采取了走访、实地调查和问卷调查相结合的方式,了解公众对地质遗迹的认知状况,分析了影响地质公园相关知识认知的因素,并为地质遗迹相关知识的普及和推广提出了合理化建议,对地质遗迹的保护与开发具有重要意义。     

Long memory in energy futures markets: Further evidence

This paper investigates long memory (or long-range dependence) in price returns and volatilities of energy futures contracts with different maturities. Based on a modified rescaled range analysis and three local Whittle methods, the results from rolling sample test suggest that the returns showed little or no long-range dependence over time but the volatilities displayed significant time-varying long-range dependence. Our evidence shows that some extreme events could cause long memory in returns and volatilities, leading to market inefficiency. Employing multiscale analysis, we find that the returns displayed no long-range dependence for any of the chosen time scales. Significant long-range dependence only existed in volatilities for daily time scales but not for monthly or yearly time scales.     

Steel consumption and economic activity in the UK: The integration and cointegration debate

This research examines whether a long-run stationary equilibrium relationship holds between economic activity and the consumption of crude steel within the UK. Using the theory of fractionally integrated and cointegrated processes, and allowing for the possibility that the equilibrium path changes abruptly at occasional points in time, it is possible to determine if steel consumption and economic activity follow a common stochastic trend or whether the two series randomly drift apart over time. Evidence is found to support such a long term relationship. This result is at odds with the conclusions drawn by previous researchers in the area. The reason for this difference may be due to these researchers concentrating only on I(0) and I(1) specifications, without consideration of fractional possibilities and also to a failure to account for structural breaks in the equilibrium relationship. Such conclusions are made within the framework of the ARFIMA methodology that yields reliable inferences on the degree of fractional integration and cointegration. Critical values for fractional contegration with an ARFIMA model in the presence of structural breaks are also derived in this paper.     

Iron ore spot price volatility and change in forward pricing mechanism

To examine the impact of the change in forward pricing mechanism on the volatility of iron ore spot prices, we model the iron ore daily price of Platts IODEX from October 7, 2008 to September 21, 2012. The identified iron ore spot price tends to be less volatile after the introduction of quarterly pricing mechanism. Our main approaches are as follows: (i) to decompose the spot price of Platts IODEX into two subsamples and relate the result of the structural break to the date of the switch in the iron ore forward pricing mechanism; (ii) to apply the EGARCH (1, 1) model to simultaneously capture the long memory and the asymmetric effect on the volatility of the iron ore spot price; and (iii) to delineate the news impact curve to further interpret the asymmetric effect.     

柳江国家地质公园的科学价值与地质环境保护

秦皇岛柳江国家地质公园以地质遗迹资源丰富、地貌景观多样而闻名,具有重要的科学研究价值和旅游价值。然而地方政府为满足短期经济发展的需要,过度开发园区内的煤炭、水泥灰岩等矿产资源,致使一些珍贵的地质遗迹被破坏。为此,从政策、法规以及宣传教育层面对地质遗迹的保护提出一些建议。     

秦皇岛市抚宁县环境地质灾害防治分区评价

依据地质灾害的易发程度、受威胁人数、经济损失大小、人为活动强度等因素,采用地质灾害易发性综合指数法对抚宁县环境地质灾害进行划分,抚宁县环境地质灾害分为重点防治区、次重点防治区和一般防治区三级,每级防治区又划分出不同的防治亚区,通过分析环境地质灾害分布特征、工程地质岩类、成因与现状,对每个防治亚区进行评价,并提出加强防灾救灾管理与加强监测、随时做好应急准备等预防保护措施。     

Mining and the environment: a case study from Bijolia quarrying site in Rajasthan, India

Mining is essentially a destructive developmental activity, where ecology suffers at the altar of economy. Unfortunately, in most regions of the Earth, the underground geological resources are superimposed by biological resources (forests). This is particularly evident in India. Hence mining operations necessarily involve deforestation, habitat destruction, biodiversity erosion and destruction of geological records which contain information about past biodiversity. Extraction and the processing of ores and minerals also lead to widespread environmental pollution.However, mankind cannot afford to give up the underground geological resources which are the basic raw materials for development. An unspoiled nature can provide ecological security to people but cannot bring economic prosperity. Scientific mining operations accompanied by ecological restoration and regeneration of mined wastelands and judicious use of geological resources, with search for eco-friendly substitutes and alternatives must provide the answer.A case study from the Bijolia quarrying area in Rajasthan, India, provides some sensational revelations of the impact of mining on the human ecosystem.     

安徽旅游地质资源及开发与保护建议

旅游地质资源是地质作用形成的特殊自然资源。在阐述旅游地质资源涵义的基础上，对安徽的旅游地质资源进行了初步分类和评述，并提出了安徽旅游地质资源的开发建议。     

秦皇岛市地质灾害风险区划的思考与探索

秦皇岛市已发现崩塌、泥石流、滑坡、采空塌陷等各类地质灾害点204处,已发生地质灾害111处,占54%。其中,人类工程经济活动与地质灾害形成发展关系密切。保护地质环境与生态环境,可采取加强地灾防治宣传,制止无序群采,禁止山区放牧,科学合理开采地下水,防止海水入侵,在群测群防的基础上,采取必要的工程治理措施。     

浅谈防止海上油田地质性溢油的几个因素

油田在注水开发过程中由于注水工艺不完善、注水水质不达标、注采比不合理、井控措施无效等因素会导致地质性溢油事故的发生。文章主要针对注水性油田在开发过程中可能会导致地质性溢油的几个关键因素进行探讨,为注水性油田开发风险防范和环境保护提供参考。     

开滦赵各庄煤矿采煤沉陷土地资源影响评价

采煤沉陷已成为煤矿区危害范围最广、影响程度最大、延续时间最长的一种工程地质灾害,在对赵各庄煤矿矿山地质环境调查的基础上,分析采空沉陷区对土地资源影响特征,并预测采空沉陷区土地资源影响和破坏发展趋势,指出了沉陷区土地复垦规划原则,提出了合理的复垦建议。     

秦皇岛市崩塌环境地质灾害特征及其防治对策

近年来,随着人类工程活动的加剧,秦皇岛市崩塌地质灾害频繁发生,对人民生命财产安全和生存环境造成很大威胁。秦皇岛市环境地质灾害以崩塌为主,多分布在北部低山丘陵区,具有崩塌数量多、密度高、危害大、变形模数大、规模以中小型为主、诱发因素清楚、宏观前兆明显、可预防性强的特点,地质灾害发育呈明显的季节性和地域性分布规律。针对上述特征,崩塌地质灾害的防治应采用群测群防、避让及工程治理措施。     

Effective Transboundary Aquifer Areas: An Approach for Transboundary Groundwater Management

The natural complexity, heterogeneity, and extent of transboundary aquifers around the world, have led to controversy over which method or criteria should be used to identify and delineate their boundaries. Currently, there is no standard methodology that aquifer‐sharing countries can use to delineate the area of a transboundary aquifer. In the case of Mexico and Texas, Mexico uses administrative boundaries, whereas Texas uses geological boundaries. This paper proposes a method for delineation and prioritization of aquifers (or aquifer areas) called effective transboundary aquifer areas (ETAAs), which uses a combination of physical criteria (geological boundaries, topography, and hydrography) and the location and density of active water wells in the borderland between Mexico and Texas. This method identifies the area of priority (productivity area) in the aquifer using pumping patterns or hot spots regardless of the aquifer’s surficial geological limits, therefore offering a more effective, local and practical management option at the transboundary level. Different geological features or pumping patterns will have different sizes and locations of ETAAs within the same aquifer. In West Texas, which is dominated by bolsons, the method produces limited options for ETAAs, whereas in South Texas in the easternmost border the identified ETAAs are more significant.     

Factor demand flexibility in the primary aluminium industry: Evidence from stagnating and expanding regions

The purpose of the paper is to analyse and compare short-run factor demand responses to price changes in the primary aluminium industry in Western Europe and the Africa-Middle East (AME) region. We outline a Translog variable cost function model, which is estimated employing a panel data set at the individual smelter level over the time period 1990-2003. The empirical results show evidence of limited - but far from insignificant - price-induced factor demand responses in the short-run. Overall aluminium smelters in the AME-region show evidence of higher estimated short-run own- and cross-price elasticities than their competitors in Western Europe, at least when it comes to labour and electricity demand. One important reason for this result is the greater number of pot lines with slightly different technologies at each smelter as well as the more intense use of the Prebake technology in the AME-region making retrofits in existing plants less costly than in Western Europe. The results also suggest that in both regions the demand for electricity has over time become less sensitive to short-run price changes, while the labour and material demand responses to price changes have increased but only in the AME-region. The liberalisation of the Western European electricity markets in combination with the rigid labour markets in this part of the world suggest that the shift in production capacity from the western world to the AME-region as well as China may continue.