Fossil fuels in the 21st century

An overview of the importance of fossil fuels in supplying the energy requirements of the 21st century, their future supply, and the impact of their use on global climate is presented. Current and potential alternative energy sources are considered. It is concluded that even with substantial increases in energy derived from other sources, fossil fuels will remain a major energy source for much of the 21st century and the sequestration of CO2 will be an increasingly important requirement.     

Effects on the function of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Historically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.     

Evaluating the effects of elevated levels of atmospheric trace gases on herbs and shrubs: a prototype dual array field exposure system

In the context of global climate change, an understanding of the long-term effects of increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace gases (carbon dioxide, CO(2), ozone, O(3), oxides of nitrogen, NO(x) etc.) on both cultivated and native vegetation is of utmost importance. Over the years, under field conditions, various trace gas-vegetation exposure methodologies with differing advantages and disadvantages have been used. Because of these variable criteria, with elevated O(3) or CO(2) levels, at the present time the approach of free-air experimental-release of the gas into study plots is attracting much attention. However, in the case of CO(2), this approach (using 15 m diameter study plot with a single circular array of vent pipes) has proven to be cost prohibitive (about 59000-98000 dollars/year/replicate) due to the consumption of significant quantities of the gas to perform the experiment (CO(2) level elevated to 400 ppm above the ambient). Therefore, in this paper, we present a new approach consisting of a dual, concentric exposure array of vertical risers or vent pipes. The purpose of the outer array (17 m diameter) is to vent ambient air outward and toward the incoming wind, thus providing an air curtain to reduce the velocity of that incoming wind to simulate the mode or the most frequently occurring wind speed at the study site. The inner array (15 m diameter) vents the required elevated levels of trace gases (CO(2), O(3), etc.) into the study plot. This dual array system is designed to provide spatial homogeneity (shown through diffusion modeling) of the desired trace-gas levels within the study plot and to also reduce its consumption. As an example, while in the single-array free-air CO(2)-release system the consumption of CO(2) to elevate its ambient concentration by 400 ppm is calculated to be about 980 tons/year/replicate, it is estimated that in the dual array system it would be approximately 590 tons/year/replicate. Thus, the dual array system may provide substantial cost savings (24000-39000 dollars/year/replicate) in the CO(2) consumption (60-100 dollars/ton of CO(2)) alone. Similarly, benefits in the requirements of other trace gases (O(3), NO(x), etc.) are expected, in future multivariate studies on global climate change.     

Anthropogenic and natural CO2 emission sources in an arid urban environment

Recent research has shown the Phoenix, AZ metropolitan region to be characterized by a CO2 dome that peaks near the urban center. The CO2 levels, 50% greater than the surrounding non-urban areas, have been attributed to anthropogenic sources and the physical geography of the area. We quantified sources of CO2 emissions across the metropolitan region. Anthropogenic CO2 emission data were obtained from a variety of government and NGO sources. Soil CO2 efflux from the dominant land-use types was measured over the year. Humans and automobile activity produced more than 80% input of CO2 into the urban environment. Soil CO2 efflux from the natural desert ecosystems showed minimal emissions during hot and dry periods, but responded rapidly to moisture. Conversely, human maintained vegetation types (e.g. golf courses, lawns, irrigated agriculture) have greater efflux and are both temperature and soil moisture dependent. Landfills exhibited the most consistent rates, but were temperature and moisture independent. We estimate the annual CO2 released from the predominant land-use types in the Phoenix region and present a graphical portrayal of soil CO2 emissions and the total natural and anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the metropolitan region using a GIS-based approach. The results presented here do not mimic the spatial pattern shown in previous studies. Only, with sophisticated mixing models will we be able to address the total effect of urbanization on CO2 levels and the contribution to regional patterns.     

Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering: A Review for Developing a Science Plan

Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO(2)) removal (CDR), which removes CO(2) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research.     

General effects of climate change on Arctic fishes and fish populations

Projected shifts in climate forcing variables such as temperature and precipitation are of great relevance to arctic freshwater ecosystems and biota. These will result in many direct and indirect effects upon the ecosystems and fish present therein. Shifts projected for fish populations will range from positive to negative in overall effect, differ among species and also among populations within species depending upon their biology and tolerances, and will be integrated by the fish within their local aquascapes. This results in a wide range of future possibilities for arctic freshwater and diadromous fishes. Owing to a dearth of basic knowledge regarding fish biology and habitat interactions in the north, complicated by scaling issues and uncertainty in future climate projections, only qualitative scenarios can be developed in most cases. This limits preparedness to meet challenges of climate change in the Arctic with respect to fish and fisheries.     

Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for arctic freshwater and anadromous species

Fisheries for arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species contribute significantly to northern economies. Climate change, and to a lesser extent increased ultraviolet radiation, effects in freshwaters will have profound effects on fisheries from three perspectives: quantity of fish available, quality of fish available, and success of the fishers. Accordingly, substantive adaptation will very likely be required to conduct fisheries sustainably in the future as these effects take hold. A shift to flexible and rapidly responsive 'adaptive management' of commercial fisheries will be necessary; local land- and resource-use patterns for subsistence fisheries will change; and, the nature, management and place for many recreational fisheries will change. Overall, given the complexity and uncertainty associated with climate change and related effects on arctic freshwaters and their biota, a much more conservative approach to all aspects of fishery management will be required to ensure ecosystems and key fished species retain sufficient resiliency and capacity to meet future changes.     

Productivity responses of Acer rubrum and Taxodium distichum seedlings to elevated CO2 and flooding

Elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 are expected to increase photosynthetic rates of C3 tree species, but it is uncertain whether this will result in an increase in wetland seedling productivity. Separate short-term experiments (12 and 17 weeks) were performed on two wetland tree species, Taxodium distichum and Acer rubrum, to determine if elevated CO2 would influence the biomass responses of seedlings to flooding. T. distichum were grown in replicate glasshouses (n = 2) at CO2 concentrations of 350 or 700 ppm. and A. rubrum were grown in growth chambers at CO2 concentrations of 422 or 722 ppm. Both species were grown from seed. The elevated CO2 treatment was crossed with two water table treatments, flooded and non-flooded. Elevated CO2 increased leaf-level photosynthesis, whole-plant photosynthesis, and trunk diameter of T. distichum in both flooding treatments, but did not increase biomass of T. distichum or A. rubrum. Flooding severely reduced biomass, height, and leaf area of both T. distichum and A. rubrum. Our results suggest that the absence of a CO2-induced increase in growth may have been due to an O2 limitation on root production even though there was a relatively deep (approximately 10 cm) aerobic soil surface in the non-flooded treatment.     

Synthesis of effects in four Arctic subregions

An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints--or facilitation--of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function, species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.     

Food Security: Crops for People Not for Cars

Humankind is currently faced with the huge challenge of securing a sustainable energy supply and biofuels constitute one of the major options. However, the commercially traded edible crops are barely sufficient to meet food demand of the present world population. Certain regions, for example EU-27, do not even have a sufficient indigenous crop production. Of this follows that motor biofuels based on edible crops should be avoided. To replace more than some percent of the fossil motor fuels, non-edible biomass—rest products and wastes—should instead be considered for conversion to biofuels. In this way, about 10% of the current fossil fuels can be replaced. Feeding a world population expected to grow by some 50% during the next 50 years will be a major challenge. For environmental reasons it seems that agricultural land cannot be expanded very much, maybe not at all. The solution to the increasing food demand seems therefore to be using the present crop production more efficiently and increasing output from present agricultural land, maintaining biodiversity and climate stability within reasonable limits. In the future, agriculture will need more energy and more water irrigation. Food production is, however, already very energy demanding, requiring several times more externally provided energy than the energy content of the food itself. A sufficient energy supply will be a key issue for the future farming!     

Effect of global climate change and human disturbances on tree diversity of the forest regenerating from clear-cuts of mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest in Northeast China

Studies on the combined effects of global climate change and human disturbances are important for biodiversity conservation and natural resources management. Here we use the modified forest dynamics model to simulate the tree diversity change of a typical mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest regenerating from clear-cuts in Northeast China in response to global climate change, double concentration of CO(2) and human disturbances during the next 50 years. We consider the following climate change scenario: the annual temperature will increase 2 degrees C, the annual precipitation will increase 10% and CO(2) concentration will increase to 700 microll(-1) linearly in 50 years. Five kinds of human disturbances under climate change are considered: logging which removes all trees with diameter at the breast height of more than 50 cm; removing all individuals of any one species; and removing all individuals of shade tolerant, shade intolerant and medium type tree species, respectively. We find that the index of proportional representation of species (alpha index) for the forest growing from clear-cuts increases significantly under climate change, but decreases under climate change plus logging. The index of changing representation of species (beta(c) index) increases significantly under climate change and climate change plus logging. When any one species is removed alpha diversity of the forest growing from clear-cuts changes significantly under climate change, but beta(c) index remains almost the same. When all individuals of shade tolerant species, shade intolerant species, or medium type species are removed, respectively, alpha diversity decreases, but beta(c) diversity changes in more complicated ways. The implications of these results for preserving tree diversity in this type of forest are also discussed.     

Analysis of air quality in Dire Dawa,Ethiopia

Ambient air quality was monitored and analyzed to develop air quality index and its implications for livability and climate change in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia. Using survey research design, 16 georeferenced locations, representing different land uses, were randomly selected and assessed for sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO),volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and meteorological parameters (temperature and relative humidity). The study found mean concentrations across all land uses for SO₂ of 0.37 ± 0.08 ppm, NO₂ of 0.13 ± 0.17 ppm, CO₂ of 465.65 ± 28.63 ppm, CO of 3.35 ± 2.04 ppm, and VOCs of 1850.67 ± 402 ppm. An air quality index indicated that ambient air quality for SO₂ was very poor, NO₂ ranged from moderate to very poor, whereas CO rating was moderate. Significant positive correlations existed between temperature and NO₂, CO₂, and CO and between humidity and VOCs. Significant relationships were also recorded between CO₂ and NO₂ and between CO and CO₂. Poor urban planning, inadequate pollution control measure, and weak capacity to monitor air quality have implications for energy usage, air quality, and local meteorological parameters, with subsequent feedback into global climate change. Implementation of programs to monitor and control emissions in order to reduce air pollution will provide health, economic, and environmental benefits to the city.

Implications: The need to develop and implement emission control programs to reduce air pollution in Dire Dawa City is urgent. This will provide enormous economic, health, and environmental benefits. It is expected that economic effects of air quality improvement will offset the expenditures for pollution control. Also, strategies that focus on air quality and climate change present a unique opportunity to engage different stakeholders in providing inclusive and sustainable development agenda for Dire Dawa.     

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature across an urban–rural transect

The heat island effect and the high use of fossil fuels in large city centers are well documented, but by how much fossil fuel consumption is elevating atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and whether elevations in both atmospheric CO₂ and air temperature from rural to urban areas are consistently different from year to year are less well known. Our aim was to record atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, air temperature and other environmental variables in an urban area and compare it to suburban and rural sites to see if urban sites are experiencing climates expected globally in the future with climate change. A transect was established from Baltimore city center (Urban site), to the outer suburbs of Baltimore (suburban site) and out to an organic farm (rural site). At each site a weather station was set-up to monitor environmental variables for 5 years. Atmospheric CO₂ was consistently and significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the 5 years of the study. Air temperature was also consistently and significantly higher at the urban site (14.8 °C) compared to the suburban (13.6 °C) and rural (12.7 °C) sites. Relative humidity was not different between sites whereas the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was significantly higher at the urban site compared to the suburban and rural sites. An increase in nitrogen deposition at the rural site of 0.6% and 1.0% compared to the suburban and urban sites was small enough not to affect soil nitrogen content. Dense urban areas with large populations and high vehicular traffic have significantly different microclimates compared to outlying suburban and rural areas. The increases in atmospheric CO₂ and air temperature are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change, therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

State of energy consumption and CO2 emission in Bangladesh

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the most important gases in the atmosphere, and is necessary for sustaining life on Earth. It is also considered to be a major greenhouse gas contributing to global warming and climate change. In this article, energy consumption in Bangladesh is analyzed and estimates are made of CO2 emission from combustion of fossil fuel (coal, gas, petroleum products) for the period 1977 to 1995. International Panel for Climate Change guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories were used in estimating CO2 emission. An analysis of energy data shows that the consumption of fossil fuels in Bangladesh is growing by more than 5% per year. The proportion of natural gas in total energy consumption is increasing, while that of petroleum products and coal is decreasing. The estimated total CO2 release from all primary fossil fuels used in Bangladesh amounted to 5072 Gigagram (Gg) in 1977, and 14 423 Gg in 1995. The total amounts of CO2 released from petroleum products, natural gas, and coal in the period 1977-1995 were 83 026 Gg (50% of CO2 emission), 72 541 Gg (44% of CO2 emission), and 9545 Gg (6% CO2 emission), respectively. A trend in CO2 emission with projections to 2070 is generated. In 2070, total estimated CO2 emission will be 293 260 Gg with a current growth rate of 6.34% y . CO2 emission from fossil fuels is increasing. Petroleum products contribute the majority of CO2 emission load, and although the use of natural gas is increasing rapidly, its contribution to CO2 emission is less than that of petroleum products. The use of coal as well as CO2 emission from coal is expected to gradually decrease.     

The global carbon cycle and climate change: responses and feedbacks from below-ground systems

According to most global climate models, a continued build-up of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will lead to significant changes in temperature and precipitation patterns over large parts of the Earth. Below-ground processes will strongly influence the response of the biosphere to climate change and are likely to contribute to positive or negative biospheric feedbacks to climate change. Current global carbon budgets suggest that as much as 2000 Pg of carbon exists in soil systems. There is considerable disagreement, however, over pool sizes and flux (e.g. CO2, CH4) for various ecosystems. An equilibrium analysis of changes in global below-ground carbon storage due to a doubled-CO2 climate suggests a range from a possible sink of 41 Pg to a possible source of 101 Pg. Components of the terrestrial biosphere could be managed to sequester or conserve carbon and mitigate accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.     

Increase in summer European ozone amounts due to climate change

The local and regional distribution of pollutants is significantly influenced by weather patterns and variability along with the spatial patterns of emissions. Therefore, climatic changes which affect local meteorological conditions can alter air quality. We use the regional air quality model CHIMERE driven by meteorological fields from regional climate change simulations to investigate changes in summer ozone mixing ratios over Europe under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Using three 30-year simulation periods, we find that daily peak ozone amounts as well as average ozone concentrations substantially increase during summer in future climate conditions. This is mostly due to higher temperatures and reduced cloudiness and precipitation over Europe and it leads to a higher number of ozone events exceeding information and warning thresholds. Our results show a pronounced regional variability, with the largest effects of climate change on ozone concentrations occurring over England, Belgium, Germany and France. The temperature-driven increase in biogenic emissions appears to enhance the ozone production and isoprene was identified as the most important chemical factor in the ozone sensitivity. We also find that summer ozone levels in future climate projections are similar to those found during the exceptionally warm and dry European summer of 2003. Our simulations suggest that in future climate conditions summer ozone might pose a much more serious threat to human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems in Europe, so that the effects of climate trends on pollutant amounts should be considered in future emission control measures.     

Epidemiological Bases for Possible Air Quality Criteria for Carbon Monoxide

Exposures to adequate environmental levels of CO will increase COHb concentrations in human subjects. The amount of this increase is reasonably predictable, and must be considered in relation to exposure to CO in inhaled cigarette smoke as well as to occupational and domestic exposures. The increase in body COHb will result in some degree of impairment of tissue oxygenation.

Methods for estimating COHb levels in large populations are relatively simple. The assumption that an exposure to 30 ppm CO for eight hours will produce on the average, an increase in COHb of 5%, has been substantiated by available data.

Exposure for five hours to between 10 and 12 ppm of CO has been shown to increase the COHb levels in nonsmokers by at least 0.5%. Such an increase adds appreciably to the body burden of COHb in those who do not already have such a body burden from cigarette smoking. Longer exposures could have produced a somewhat greater increase.

Apart from increases in COHb, three possible effects have been a source of major consideration in epidemiologic studies. The first is the production of some persistent toxic reaction. This possibility has been examined with respect to occupational exposure, and the evidence for the occurrence of such a condition is insufficient.

The possible contribution of ambient community CO exposure to the mortality of persons hospitalized with myocardial infarction has been investigated. The evidence suggests that daily average CO values in excess of about 10 ppm may be associated with an increase in mortality in hospitalized patients with myocardial infarction. Substantiation of this impression will require a study of the prognosis of myocardial infarction patients in relationship to COHb levels measured at admission to the hospital.

Finally, in two studies, persons driving motor vehicles which were involved in accidents had higher COHb levels than "control" populations. Controls were not ideal, however. Possible mechanisms by which CO might affect the ability to drive a motor vehicle is suggested in the available data on CO effects upon visual sensitivity, psychological test performance and accurate estimation of time intervals. As little as 2 percent COHb can produce these effects in laboratory studies, and the available epidemiologic information confirms that such an increase in COHb levels among drivers might influence the frequency of accidents.

Specific areas where research is indicated to clarify uncertainties relating to health effects of CO are: 1. The increment in COHb which can be produced by exposures to an average of 20 ppm CO for an eight hour period and the increment which can be produced by 15 ppm for such a period and by 10 ppm for up to twenty-four hours.

2. The relationship of ambient CO levels and of COHb levels to the survival of hospitalized patients with myocardial infarction.

3. The prognostic significance with respect to cardiovascular conditions of elevated levels of COHb.

4. The relationship, if any, between ambient CO and COHb levels and the occurrence of motor vehicle accidents when weather and driving conditions, cigarette smoking, alcohol and drug use, and other factors are adjusted and controlled.

     

Growth responses of Populus tremuloides clones to interacting elevated carbon dioxide and tropospheric ozone.

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and tropospheric ozone (O3) are increasing concomitantly globally. Little is known about the effect of these interacting gases on growth, survival, and productivity of forest ecosystems. In this study we assess the effects of three successive years of exposure to combinations of elevated CO2 and O3 on growth responses in a five trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) clonal mixture in a regenerating stand. The experiment is located in Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA (45 degrees N 89 degrees W) and employs free air carbon dioxide and ozone enrichment (FACE) technology. The aspen stand was exposed to a factorial combination of four treatments consisting of elevated CO2 (560 ppm), elevated O3 (episodic exposure-90 microl l(-1) hour(-1)), a combination of elevated CO2 and O3, and ambient control in 30 m treatment rings with three replications. Our overall results showed that our three growth parameters including height, diameter and volume were increased by elevated CO2, decreased by elevated O3, and were not significantly different from the ambient control under elevated CO2 + O3. However, there were significant clonal differences in the responses; all five clones exhibited increased growth with elevated CO2, one clone showed an increase with elevated O3, and two clones showed an increase over the control with elevated CO2 + O3, two clones showed a decrease, and one was not significantly different from the control. Notably. there was a significant increase in current terminal shoot dieback with elevated CO2 during the 1999-2000 dormant season. Dieback was especially prominent in two of the five clones, and was attributed to those clones growing longer into the autumnal season where they were subject to frost. Our results show that elevated O3 negates expected positive growth effects of elevated CO2 in Populus tremuloides in the field, and suggest that future climate model predictions should take into account the offsetting effects of elevated O3 on CO2 enrichment when estimating future growth of trembling aspen stands.     

Modeling recovery of Swedish ecosystems from acidification

Dynamic models complement existing time series of observations and static critical load calculations by simulating past and future development of chemistry in forest and lake ecosystems. They are used for dynamic assessment of the acidification and to produce target load functions, that describe what combinations of nitrogen and sulfur emission reductions are needed to achieve a chemical or biological criterion in a given target year. The Swedish approach has been to apply the dynamic acidification models MAGIC, to 133 lakes unaffected by agriculture and SAFE, to 645 productive forest sites. While the long-term goal is to protect 95% of the area, implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will protect approximately 75% of forest soils in the long term. After 2030, recovery will be very slow and involve only a limited geographical area. If there had been no emission reductions after 1980, 87% of the forest area would have unwanted soil status in the long term. In 1990, approximately 17% of all Swedish lakes unaffected by agriculture received an acidifying deposition above critical load. This fraction will decrease to 10% in 2010 after implementation of the Gothenburg protocol. The acidified lakes of Sweden will recover faster than the soils. According to the MAGIC model the median pre-industrial ANC of 107 microeq L(-1) in acid sensitive lakes decreased to about 60 microeq L(-1) at the peak of the acidification (1975-1990) and increases to 80 microeq L(-1) by 2010. Further increases were small, only 2 microeq L(-1) between 2010 and 2040. Protecting 95% of the lakes will require further emission reductions below the Gothenburg protocol levels. More than 7000 lakes are limed regularly in Sweden and it is unlikely that this practice can be discontinued in the near future without adverse effects on lake chemistry and biology.