Specific and long-term effects of Nova Scotia's graduated licensing program

A graduated licensing (GL) program was introduced in Nova Scotia, Canada, in October 1994. Previous research has shown that it reduced collisions in the short term. The present study examined the relative contribution of each stage of the program (i.e., learner and intermediate levels) and the program's impact after beginning drivers graduated to full licensure. The research focused on teenage beginning drivers (age 16-17), but the effects on older beginners also was examined. Per-driver crash rates of two groups of novices selected from driver records in Nova Scotia were compared. One group (pre-GL) received their learner's permits during the 2 years before the program was implemented, and the second group (GL) received their learner's permits during the 2 years after implementation. The findings clearly establish that most of the collision reduction in Nova Scotia's program occurred during the first year of the program, particularly during the first 6 months when the majority of novices were driving under supervision. The collision rate for 16 to 17-year-old GL novices was 50% lower than the rate for pre-GL novices during the 6 months after they received their learner's permits, and about 10% lower during their first 2 years of licensure when unsupervised driving from midnight to 5 A.M. was prohibited. Much of this improvement for 16 to 17-year-olds occurred during restricted night hours. Collision rates also were lower during nonrestricted hours in the initial 6 months of licensure. The 3-month "time discount" for driver education provided no safety benefit, and GL novices with driver education had collision rates that were not lower than pre-GL novices. There was no long-term effect found for the program after 16 to 17-year-olds graduated to full licensure. For older beginning drivers, crash rates during the first year after obtaining a learner's permit showed a 31% reduction. This effect diminished rapidly. There was only a 2% reduction during the first year of licensure, and crash rates increased during the following 2 years. Overall the data indicate substantial benefits of graduated licensing for 16 to 17-year-old beginners, but no benefits beyond the learner stage for older beginners.     

Graduated driver licensing: the New Zealand experience

In New Zealand, on 1 August 1987, a three-stage graduated driver licensing (GDL) system that applied to all new drivers aged 15-24 years was introduced. The essential elements of GDL were a 6-month learner license (supervised driving) and an 18-month restricted license stage (with restrictions on night driving and carrying passengers). A blood alcohol limit of 0.03 mg% applied at both stages. EVALUATION STUDIES: Early studies indicated that young people were reasonably accepting of the restrictions, with the passenger restriction being the least acceptable. Problems of compliance with the restricted license driving restrictions were reported. Evaluations of the impact of the graduated driver licensing (GDL) on serious traffic-related injury showed that up until 1991-1992, an 8% reduction could be attributed to GDL. At this time, it was considered that reduced exposure was the main reason for this reduction. However, the number of fatalities and hospital admissions among young people continued to decline, as did the population rate and the rate per number of licensed drivers among the young driver age group. A further evaluation study showed that drivers with a restricted license had a smaller proportion of crashes at night, and with passengers, compared with drivers licensed before GDL. IMPACT OF GDL: These results suggested that GDL restrictions had contributed to the reduction in crashes among young people and that it was not simply a case of reduced exposure to risk. An update of the most recent crash statistics indicated that, compared with older age groups, the fatal and serious injury crash rate among young people has remained substantially below the pre-GDL level. This suggests that the impact of GDL has not diminished over time.     

Do recommended driving limits affect teen-reported traffic violations and crashes during the first 12 months of independent driving?

OBJECTIVES: Motor vehicle crashes are highly elevated among newly licensed teenage drivers. Limits on high-risk driving conditions by driver licensing policies and parents can protect novice teens from negative driving outcomes, while they experience and driving proficiency. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effects of strict parent-imposed driving limits on driving outcomes during the first year of licensure. METHODS: A sample of 3,743 Connecticut teens was recruited and randomized to the Checkpoints Program or comparison condition. Assessments conducted at baseline, licensure, 3-, 6-, and 12-months postlicensure included parent-imposed driving limits, traffic violations, and crashes. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to assess the effects of strict parent limits on traffic violations and crashes during the first year of licensure. RESULTS: Thirty percent of teens reported at least one traffic violation and 40% reported at least one crash. More strict parent-imposed limits at licensure, 3-, 6-, and 12-months postlicensure, were associated with fewer violations and crashes in multivariate analyses. Notably, adherence to recommended night curfew was consistently associated with fewer violations and crashes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that strict parent-imposed limits may protect novice teen drivers from negative driving outcomes.     

The genesis of GDL

This paper discusses the early research that lead to graduated driver licensing, some of the educational principals on which it is based, obstacles to its acceptance, and some of the early efforts in the U.S. and elsewhere. EARLY RESEARCH: The research underlying the concept of graduated driver licensing was a 1971 North Carolina study that identified the overrepresentation of young drivers in crashes at night and when another young person was the right front passenger. EDUCATIONAL PRINCIPALS: Efforts to reduce the risk to young novice drivers applied what was known about learning. The concepts included distributed learning (i.e., over time) and progressing from simple to complex skills. A PROPOSAL: The proposed graduated licensing system based on learning principals included (a) initial experience under low risk conditions, (b) extended supervised practice, (c) gradual move to more complex conditions, and (d) harsher penalties for deliberate risk-taking. OBSTACLES: There were several most common objections raised against graduated licensing. Raising the licensing age decreased mobility. Some young drivers were "good" drivers. Enforcement is difficult. Fear of parental objections. Parents are not driver educators and some young people do not have an available parent. Administrative costs are too high. ACCEPTANCE: Driver educators were the first to see the benefits of a graduated system in the 1970s and 1980s. Toronto nearly adopted a graduated system in 1976. New Zealand was the first to adopt a graduated licensing system in 1984. Michigan in 1997 was the first state to require parental certification of extended supervised driving practice.     

The effect of extending graduated driver licensing to older novice drivers in Indiana

Introduction: Graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems have been shown to reduce rates of crashes, injuries, and deaths of young novice drivers. However, approximately one in three new drivers in the United States obtain their first driver’s license at age 18 or older, and thus are exempt from most or all provisions of GDL in most states. Method: In July 2015, the state of Indiana updated its GDL program, extending its restrictions on driving at night and on carrying passengers during the first 6 months of independent driving, previously only applicable to new drivers younger than 18, to all newly-licensed drivers younger than 21 years of age. The current study examined monthly rates of crashes per licensed driver under the affected conditions (driving at night and driving with passengers) among Indiana drivers first licensed at ages 18, 19, and 20 under the updated GDL system compared with drivers licensed at the same ages under the previous GDL system. We used Poisson regression to estimate the association between the GDL system and crash rates, while attempting to control for other factors that might have also influenced crash rates. We used linear regression to estimate the association between the GDL system and the proportion of all crashes that occurred under conditions restricted by the GDL program. Results: Results showed, contrary to expectations, that rates of crashes during restricted nighttime hours and with passengers were higher among drivers licensed under the updated GDL system. This mirrored a statewide increase in crash rates among drivers of all ages over the study period and likely reflected increased overall driving exposure. The proportions of all crashes that were at night or with passengers did not change. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand how older novice drivers respond when GDL systems originally designed for younger novice drivers are applied to them.     

Graduated driver licensing: review of evaluation results since 2002

Unintentional injury from motor-vehicle crashes is the number one cause of death among teenagers in the United States. Increasingly, jurisdictions have adopted three-stage graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems for young novice drivers. Since a previous review of U.S. GDL evaluation results, many more U.S. states and Canadian provinces have implemented GDL and/or had enough time pass that additional evaluation results are now available. Twenty-one studies of GDL within 14 individual jurisdictions, and six studies of GDL in the U.S. nationwide, were collected, reviewed, and summarized. Positive results (usually crash reductions) of varying degrees were reported from nearly all the studies. Given differences in approaches, study goals, methods, and analyses, the results are surprisingly consistent. Overall, GDL programs have reduced the youngest drivers' crash risk by roughly 20 to 40%. Research on teen driving and comprehensive GDL enhancements could further reduce teen drivers' motor-vehicle crashes, injuries, and fatalities. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Policy-makers, as well as the motor vehicle, insurance, and other industries have been involved in teen driving safety and could enhance and coordinate their roles.     

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) in the United States in 2016: A literature review and commentary

This is the sixth in a series of reviews of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) published in the Journal of Safety Research, the present review covering the period mid-2012 through 2016. In the two decades since GDL programs began to be introduced on a widespread basis in the United States, a vast amount of research has been published. The current review discusses recent research and the present state of knowledge on the following topics: characteristics of the novice driver population; effects of GDL on crashes for ages 16–19; the learner and intermediate periods; night and passenger restrictions; cellphone laws; GDL for older novices; enforcement of GDL rules; and programs attempting to influence GDL compliance and safe driving practices in general. GDL stands out as a successful policy for reducing teen driver crashes and is worth building on to extend its benefits. Strengthening existing GDL programs has the most potential for producing further crash reductions.     

Contribution of the components of graduated licensing to crash reductions

PROBLEM: It has been established that graduated licensing systems lead to crash reductions among beginning drivers. What is the contribution of the various components of graduated licensing to these reductions, and how can their effectiveness be increased? METHOD: Literature review and synthesis. RESULTS: Extended learner periods, nighttime restrictions, and passenger restrictions have contributed to crash reductions. Presently there is insufficient evidence concerning the contribution of seat belt or cell phone provisions, or contingent advancement penalties. DISCUSSION: There is more to learn about graduated licensing and its component features. However, there are ways to increase the contribution of all the components through stronger laws and greater compliance. With the right kind of community commitment and focus, substantial further reductions in young driver crashes are achievable. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results can guide states in establishing graduated licensing systems that maximize crash reductions.     

The effects of graduated driver licensing on hospitalization rates and charges for 16-and 17-year-olds in North Carolina

OBJECTIVE: To mitigate the high risk of motor vehicle crashes for young beginning drivers, over 40 states and the District of Columbia have implemented graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems that gradually and systematically ease teen drivers into higher risk driving conditions. Evaluations of GDL programs using motor vehicle crash data have demonstrated marked declines in crashes. The objective of this study is to examine the association between the implementation of the North Carolina GDL program and the rate of hospitalization, as well as hospital charges, for 16-and 17-year-old drivers. METHODS: Data were obtained from the North Carolina Hospital Discharge Database for the 26 months before and 46 months after the December 1, 1997, implementation of the GDL program. ARIMA interrupted time series analyses were used to model monthly hospitalization rates, controlling for the hospitalization rates of 25-to 54-year-old drivers. ARIMA analyses were also used to determine whether changes occurred in monthly total hospital charges. RESULTS: Among the 568 16-year-old hospitalized drivers, GDL was associated with a 36.5% decline in the hospitalization rate per population and a 31.2% decline in the total monthly driver hospitalization charges. Although a 12% reduction in the rate of hospitalizations was observed among the 615 17-year-old drivers, the analysis lacked sufficient power to be statistically reliable. No consistent change was observed in the 16-year-old driver total monthly hospital charges. CONCLUSIONS: The North Carolina GDL program was associated with a marked decline in the rate of hospitalizations and hospital charges for 16-year-old drivers. Following the implementation of GDL, over $650,000 in hospital charges have been averted each year for 16-year-old drivers. Analyses suggest these reductions were primarily the result of reduced exposure rather than an improvement in teen driving.     

The impact of changes to the NSW graduated driver licensing system on subsequent crash and offense experience

Introduction: In mid-2007 the State of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia introduced modifications to the existing graduated driver licensing system, lengthening the mandatory number of supervised hours for learner drivers aged under 25 years from 50 to 120 and extending the minimum learner period from 6 to 12 months. Additional driving restrictions were also introduced for young drivers in the two provisional licensed periods, P1, P2. This paper aims to evaluate this change by comparing the crash and offense experiences of young learner drivers before and after it occurred. Method: From driver licensing files supplied by the NSW transport authority two cohorts of persons obtaining their initial learner's permits in the year prior to the changes and in the subsequent year were constructed with demographic data, dates of transition to the driving phases, dates of crashes, and dates and types of traffic offenses. Both cohorts comprised around 100,000 individuals. Crash rates per 100 years of person-time under observation post P1 with their standard errors were calculated. Using a survival-analytic approach the proportion of crashes of all types were graphed in three month periods post P1. Sexes were treated separately as were initial learner ages of 16, 17, 18–21, and 22–24 years. The distribution of traffic offense types during P1 and P2 phases were also compared. With such large numbers formal statistical testing was avoided. Results: No meaningful differences in the crash or offense experiences of the two cohorts in either sex or at any age were observed. Delaying progress to unsupervised driving has road safety benefits. Conclusions: At least in conditions similar to those in NSW, requiring more than 50 h of supervised driving seems to have few road safety benefits. Practical applications: Licensing authorities should be cautious in extending the mandated number of supervised driving hours beyond 50.     

How well do parents manage young driver crash risks?

Motor vehicle crashes are extremely high among young drivers during at least the first year of licensure. Crash risks decline with increased experience, but the more newly licensed teenagers drive, the greater their risk exposure. Hence, the dilemma facing policy makers and parents is how to provide young drivers with driving experience without unduly increasing their crash risk. Graduated driver licensing policies serve to delay licensure and then limit exposure to the highest risk conditions after licensure, allowing young drivers to gain experience only under less risky driving conditions. A similar strategy is needed to guide parents. Parents do not appear to appreciate just how risky driving is for novice drivers and tend to exert less control over their teenage children's driving than might be expected. Recent research has demonstrated that simple motivational strategies can persuade parents to adopt driving agreements and impose greater restrictions on early teen driving.     

Progress in teenage crash risk during the last decade

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the present study was to examine the most recent data on teenagers' fatal and nonfatal crashes in the United States to determine current crash rates as well as changes in crash rates during the past decade METHODS: Data for calendar years 1996 and 2005 were extracted for fatal crashes from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and for police-reported crashes from the National Automotive Sampling System/General Estimates System. To calculate crash rates, population data were obtained from the Census Bureau, and mileage data were obtained from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey RESULTS: During 2001-02, the latest year for which mileage data are available, 16 year-old drivers had higher fatal and nonfatal crash rates per mile traveled than all but the very oldest drivers. However, fewer 16 year-olds typically are licensed to drive and they drive fewer miles per year than all but the oldest drivers. Thus, their fatal and nonfatal crash rates per population in 2005 were lower than among other teenagers and among drivers 20-29. During the past decade the most progress has been made in reducing crashes among the youngest drivers. Between 1996 and 2005 both fatal and police-reported crashes per population declined about 40% for 16 year-old drivers, compared with about 25% for 17 year-old drivers and 15-19% for 18 year-old drivers. The greatest reductions for 16 year-olds occurred in nighttime crashes, alcohol-related fatal crashes, and fatal crashes involving multiple teenage passengers. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial progress has been made in reducing fatal and nonfatal crashes per population among 16 year-old drivers. Although this study was not designed to examine the role of graduated licensing, the results are consistent with the increased presence of such laws, many of which restrict nighttime driving and driving with teenage passengers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Restrictions on nighttime driving and driving with teenage passengers should be made a part of all states' graduated licensing systems. Historically, 16 year-olds have had the highest crash risk per licensed driver and per mile traveled. Given the dramatic reductions in per population crash rates among 16 year-olds, it is possible that their per mile and per licensed driver rates also have declined and may no longer be as elevated relative to other ages. However, shortcomings in the licensed driver data and a lack of recent mileage data hamper our ability to examine these issues. If we are to continue to provide a yardstick against which we can measure progress among the youngest drivers, immediate steps need to be taken to restore the availability of reliable exposure data.     

Driver education and graduated licensing in North America: past, present, and future

PROBLEM: A stated objective of driver education in North America is to produce safer drivers, typically defined as drivers less likely to crash. This paper examines the extent to which driver education has achieved this objective independently as well as the extent to which such programs can support the success of graduated licensing in reducing young driver crashes. In so doing, it discusses past experiences, recent developments, and the future direction of driver education and training in relation to graduated driver licensing. METHOD: Literature review and synthesis. RESULTS: Driver education programs have yet to demonstrate consistent attainment of their safety objectives. Moreover, they have not been found to enhance the safety effectiveness of graduated licensing programs--indeed, some practices, for example, "time discounts" for driver education have actually had a detrimental effect on teen safety. DISCUSSION: Despite its disappointing safety record to date, it is important not to abandon driver education. In particular, there are opportunities to improve driver education so that it achieves its safety objectives, and ensure that programs in the future complement graduated driver licensing and contribute to its overall safety benefits. Current and future efforts to improve driver education and better integrate it with graduated licensing programs, however, need to be rigorously evaluated to determine what does and does not work to reduce young driver crashes, and as importantly, to understand why this is the case. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Improved driver education integrated with graduated driver licensing has potential safety benefits.     

Associations of repeated high alcohol use with unsafe driving behaviors,traffic offenses,and traffic crashes among young drivers: Findings from the New Zealand Drivers Study

Objective: The objective of this study was to describe self-reported high alcohol use at each of the 3 licensing stages of graduated driver licensing and its relationship to drink-driving behaviors, intentional risky driving, aggressive driving, alcohol traffic offenses, non-alcohol traffic offenses, and traffic crashes.

Methods: The New Zealand Drivers Study (NZDS) is a multistage, prospective cohort study of newly licensed drivers interviewed at all 3 stages of the graduated driver licensing system: learner (baseline), restricted (intermediate), and full license. At each stage, alcohol use was self-reported using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C), with high alcohol use defined as a score of ≥4 for males and ≥3 for females. Sociodemographic and personality data were obtained at the baseline interview. Alcohol-related, intentional risky, and aggressive driving behaviors were self-reported following each license stage. Traffic crashes and offenses were identified from police records. Crashes were also self-reported.

Results: Twenty-six percent (n = 397) reported no high alcohol use, 22% at one license stage, 30% at 2 stages, and 22% at 3 stages. Poisson regression results (unadjusted and adjusted) showed that the number of stages where high alcohol use was reported was significantly associated with each of the outcomes. For most outcomes, and especially the alcohol-involved outcomes, the relative risk increased with the number of stages of high alcohol use.

Conclusions: We found that high alcohol use was common among young newly licensed drivers and those who repeatedly reported high alcohol use were at a significantly higher risk of unsafe driving behaviors. Recently introduced zero blood alcohol concentration (BAC) should help to address this problem, but other strategies are required to target persistent offenders.     

Commentary: graduated licensing--moving forward or standing still?

The widespread application of graduated driver licensing (GDL), starting in the mid-1990s, has greatly reduced young driver crashes. Substantial further reductions are possible by raising the licensing age to 17. This can be done indirectly, through extension of GDL policies (minimum learner age of 16, one-year holding period), or by legislation directly establishing 17 as the licensing age. Other approaches are likely to have limited impact.     

A national evaluation of the nighttime and passenger restriction components of graduated driver licensing

Introduction

The high crash rate of youthful novice drivers has been recognized for half a century. Over the last decade, graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems, which extend the period of supervised driving and limit the novice's exposure to higher-risk conditions (such as nighttime driving), have effectively reduced crash involvements of novice drivers.

Method

This study used data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the implementation dates of GDL laws in a state-by-year panel study to evaluate the effectiveness of two key elements of GDL laws: nighttime restrictions and passenger limitations.

Results

Nighttime restrictions were found to reduce 16- and 17-year-old driver involvements in nighttime fatal crashes by an estimated 10% and 16- and 17-year-old drinking drivers in nighttime fatal crashes by 13%. Passenger restrictions were found to reduce 16- and 17-year-old driver involvements in fatal crashes with teen passengers by an estimated 9%.

Conclusions

These results confirm the effectiveness of these provisions in GDL systems. Impact on Public Health. States without the nighttime or passenger restrictions in their GDL law should strongly consider adopting them.

Impact on Industry

The results of this study indicate that nighttime restrictions and passenger limitations are very important components of any GDL law.     

Tennessee's Novice Driver Safety Project: a program to increase parental involvement

Graduated licensing has been implemented in many U.S. states to reduce teenage driver crash involvement. The goal is to introduce teenagers gradually to driving before allowing full, unrestricted licensure. Tennessee, one of the states that introduced graduated licensing, implemented a program to influence both driving by teenagers during the learner stage and restrictions imposed by parents after licensure. In addition to a standard welcome letter, booklets and reminder cards were mailed to parents of teenagers who had just obtained their learner's permits. The booklets and cards were designed to assist parents in becoming more actively involved in their children's driving experiences. The effects of three different approaches (welcome letter only, letter plus booklet, and letter plus booklet plus reminder cards) on parental involvement, teenage crashes, and teenage citations were assessed based on telephone interviews with parents. Although the parents said the booklets and reminder cards were helpful and should continue to be sent to other parents, there were no discernible effects on teenage practice driving and reported parental involvement during the learner stage. Nor was there any measurable influence on restrictions imposed by parents after licensure. It is unknown whether the standard welcome letter affected parental involvement, but overall supervised driving exceeded the state requirements by a substantial margin.     

Graduated driver licensing research in 2004 and 2005

This is the second update of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) and teenage drivers. It briefly summarizes research in progress and research published since the January 2004 update (Hedlund, J. & Compton, R. [2004]. Graduated driver licensing research in 2003 and beyond. Journal of Safety Research 35(1), 5-11). Research has been very active, especially on teenage driver risk factors, GDL program evaluations, the role of parents in managing and training their teenage drivers, and driver education. Results have strengthened the case for GDL, for nighttime and passenger restrictions, and for extended supervised driving practice.     

Socio-demographic and experience factors affecting drivers’ runoff risk along horizontal curves of two-lane rural highway

Introduction: An improper driving strategy is one of the causative factors for a high probability of runoff and overturning crashes along the horizontal curves of two-lane highways. The socio-demographic and driving experience factors of a driver do influence driving strategy. Hence, this paper explored the effect of these factors on the driver’s runoff risk along the horizontal curves. Method: The driving performance data of 48 drivers along 52 horizontal curves was recorded in a fixed-base driving simulator. The driving performance index was estimated from the weighted lateral acceleration profile of each driver along a horizontal curve. It was clustered and compared with the actual runoff events observed during the experiment. It yielded high, moderate, and low-risk clusters. Using cross-tabulation, each risk cluster was compared with the socio-demographic and experience factors. Further, generalized mixed logistic regression models were developed to predict the high-risk and high to moderate risk events. Results: The age and experience of drivers are the influencing factors for runoff crash. The high-risk event percentage for mid-age drivers decreases with an increase in driving experience. For younger drivers, it increases initially but decreases afterwards. The generalized mixed logistic regression models identified young drivers with mid and high experience and mid-age drivers with low-experience as the high-risk groups. Conclusions: The proposed index parameter is effective in identifying the risk associated with horizontal curves. Driver training program focusing on the horizontal curve negotiation skills and graduated driver licensing could help the high-risk groups. Practical applications: The proposed index parameter can evaluate driving behavior at the horizontal curves. Driving behavior of high-risk groups could be considered in highway geometric design. Motor-vehicle agencies, advanced driver assistance systems manufacturers, and insurance agencies can use proposed index parameter to identify the high-risk drivers for their perusal.     

New Zealand drivers study: developing a methodology for conducting a follow-up study of newly licensed drivers

PROBLEM: In recent years, there has been a significant reduction in traffic crash injury among young people, but they continue to be overrepresented in the traffic crash statistics. To improve this situation, sound scientific evidence is needed to develop effective policies and programs. METHOD: The aim of the proposed study is to provide this evidence by examining early driving and driving-related experiences of newly licensed drivers as they progress through the learner-, restricted-, and full-license stages of the graduated licensing system and to determine the impact of these experiences on subsequent negative traffic-related outcomes (risky driving behavior, injury traffic crashes, noninjury traffic crashes, infringements, convictions). Given the size and complexity of the proposed study, a comprehensive pilot study was undertaken to determine the feasibility of conducting a New Zealand-wide cohort study of newly licensed drivers. RESULTS: This article describes the pilot study process and the methodology that has been developed for the New Zealand-wide study.