Persistence of Violation and Crash Behavior Over Time

This analysis examines the ability of previous offenses to predict future high-risk offenses, and similarly, the ability of crashes to predict future high-risk crashes, using the complete driver history data (up to 9 years) for a set of young Michigan subjects. As expected, those with previous ticketed offenses or reported crashes are at greater risk for future offenses or crashes; with a previous-year serious offense doubling the odds of serious offenses during the subsequent year, and a previous-year at-fault crash increasing the odds of subsequent-year at-fault crashes by nearly 50%. There is modest evidence that serious offenses and at-fault crashes may better predict subsequent behavior in females and in more experienced drivers. This latter finding is also evidenced by the fact that records of these young drivers are less predictive of subsequent driving history than is true for records of all drivers in general found in other studies. This suggests that, in the early stages of driving, offenses and crashes are, at least in part, attributable to inexperience, and hence, characteristic of all beginning drivers.     

MaryPODS revisited: updated crash analysis and implications for screening program implementation

PROBLEM: Due to the relative scarcity of crashes, there has consistently been a problem with analyses that use crashes as a criterion measure in their analyses. METHOD: Previous analyses of the relationships between functional capacity measures and at-fault crash involvement for older drivers as reported in the NHTSA Model Driver Screening and Evaluation Program Final Technical Report have been updated to include one additional year of driving experience. Eighteen new at-fault crashes involving drivers who previously had no crash involvement were recorded for the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration (MVA) test sample during this interval. The method of odds ratio (OR) calculation was used to examine the relationships between functional status predictors and the most salient among the safety outcome measures identified in the Maryland research. Peak valid OR values for the prior and current analyses were contrasted, and the stability of candidate pass-fail cut-points for each predictor relative to values identified in the Final Technical Report was examined. RESULTS: Results indicate that the predictive value of functional tests appears to decrease over time, particularly for the perceptual-cognitive measures. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The impact of these findings on programs and policies is to underscore a need for periodic reevaluation, spaced at the shortest practical intervals but not more than 2 years apart, in order for functional capacity screening to be applied effectively by licensing authorities, health care professionals, and others to reduce personal risk and enhance public safety.     

Injury-severity analysis of lane change crashes involving commercial motor vehicles on interstate highways

Introduction: One of the challenging tasks for drivers is the ability to change lanes around large commercial motor vehicles. Lane changing is often characterized by speed, and crashes that occur due to unsafe lane changes can have serious consequences. Considering the economic importance of commercial trucks, ensuring the safety, security, and resilience of freight transportation is of paramount concern to the United States Department of Transportation and other stakeholders. Method: In this study, a mixed (random parameters) logit model was developed to better understand the relationship between crash factors and associated injury severities of commercial vehicle crashes involving lane change on interstate highways. The study was based on 2009–2016 crash data from Alabama. Results: Preliminary data analysis showed that about 4% of the observed crashes were major injury crashes and drivers of commercial motor vehicles were at-fault in more than half of the crashes. Acknowledging potential crash data limitations, the model estimation results reveal that there is increased probability of major injury when lane change crashes occurred on dark unlit portions of interstates and involve older drivers, at-fault commercial vehicle drivers, and female drivers. The results further show that lane change crashes that occurred on interstates with higher number of travel lanes were less likely to have major injury outcomes. Practical Applications: These findings can help policy makers and state transportation agencies increase awareness on the hazards of changing lanes in the immediate vicinity and driving in the blind spots of large commercial motor vehicles. Additionally, law enforcement efforts may be intensified during times and locations of increased unsafe lane changing activities. These findings may also be useful in commercial vehicle driver training and driver licensing programs.     

Collision and violation involvement of drivers who use cellular telephones

The study sample consisted of 3,869 drivers, split approximately 50/50 between observed cell phone users and those observed not using cell phones (labeled "nonusers"). Cell phone use was determined by a snapshot observation made on city streets. The sample represented 54% of those originally observed, for whom a match was obtained for both vehicle license plate and for gender and estimated age group of the observed driver and that of the driver named in the vehicle policy. Data were obtained from records of insurance claims, police-reported collisions and violations, following a strict protocol to protect individual privacy. The dependent measures were at-fault crash claims and "inattention" violations. A logistic regression model controlled for age, gender, exposure (represented by not-at-fault crash claims), alcohol-related offenses, and aggressive driving offenses. The study also involved a comparison of the contributing factors and collision configurations of police-reported collisions involving the users and "nonusers" in the sample. Drivers observed using cell phones had a higher risk of an at-fault crash than did the "nonusers," although the difference was not significant for males. There was no apparent effect on "inattention" violations. The cell phone users also had a higher proportion of rear-end collisions. The violation pattern of cell phone users suggests that they are, in general, riskier drivers. These differences likely reflect lifestyle, attitude and personality factors. It is essential to control for these factors in assessing the direct risk attributable to cellular telephone use.     

Young driver risk in relation to parents' retrospective driving record

PROBLEM: Parents are an important potential influence on the driving safety of their children. This study examined the relationship of parental driving record on male and female offspring's at-fault collision risk. METHOD: Drivers aged 16-21 on the date of full licensure were selected from driver records and a matching process was used to identify putative parents in two-parent households. Poisson regression models were developed to predict at-fault collisions of male and female youth in the three years following full licensure from parents' at-fault collisions, speeding offenses, and other moving offenses in the four years prior to children's licensure. One set of models examined the relative risk associated with increasing numbers of maternal and paternal at-fault collisions and offenses. Other models examined the joint versus separate maternal and parental contributions. RESULTS: Controlling for region of residence, both mothers' and fathers' at-fault collisions were associated with an increased risk in both male and female youth at-fault collisions. Mothers' and fathers' speeding offenses were also associated with increased relative risk of at-fault collisions for both sons and daughters, while fathers' other moving offenses increased collision risk for sons but not daughters. DISCUSSION: Further research is required to identify how parental driving risk is transmitted to children. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: (a) Parents of young children should be informed of their role in influencing their children's future driving risk; (b) The results identify risk factors that could be of interest to licensing authorities and the insurance industry.     

The role of personality characteristics in young adult driving

BACKGROUND: Motor vehicle injury is the major cause of mortality among young adults. Information about the individual characteristics of those who drive dangerously could enhance traffic safety programs. The goal of this research was to examine the association between various personality-related characteristics and risky driving behaviors. METHODS: Young adults in Michigan, USA (n = 5,362) were surveyed by telephone regarding several personality factors (risk-taking, hostility, aggression, tolerance of deviance, achievement expectations) and driving behaviors (competitive driving, risk-taking driving, high-risk driving, aggressive driving, and drink/driving). Michigan driver records were obtained to examine offenses, serious offenses, driving offense points, crashes and serious crashes in the three pre-interview years. Multivariate regression analyses, adjusting for age, race, and marital status were conducted separately by sex to identify personality factors related to driving. RESULTS: For men and women, greater risk-taking propensity, physical/verbal hostility, aggression, and tolerance of deviance were significant predictors of a competitive attitude toward driving, risk-taking driving, high-risk driving, driving aggression, and drink/driving. Greater risk-taking propensity, physical/verbal hostility, aggression, and to a small degree, expectations for achievement predicted higher numbers of offenses, serious offenses, and points. CONCLUSION: Traffic safety policies and programs could be enhanced through recognition of the role personality factors play in driving behavior and the incorporation of this knowledge into the design and implementation of interventions that modify the behaviors associated with them.     

A neglected risky behavior among children and adolescents: underage driving and injury in New South Wales,Australia

PROBLEM: Among different causes of injury, roads and traffic-related incidents contributed most to all child deaths. The majority of childhood and adolescent traffic-related deaths are young people killed as pedestrians or bicyclists. Underage driving is a particular risky behavior much neglected. This study aimed to describe some characteristics related to motor-vehicle crashes and crash-related injury in which the vehicle was driven by a young person who was under the legal age of obtaining a learner license in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: Data used in this study were made available from the Roads and Traffic Authority of NSW for the period between 1996 and 2000. Crash information was collected and reported by NSW police at the scene of these motor-vehicle crash incidents. RESULTS: There were 526 crashes involving an underage driver recorded within the study period. The majority (79.5%) of these underage drivers were males with slightly more than half (58.0%) aged 15 years, and nearly 30% aged 14 years. Among these, 83.6% involved the driver of the vehicle being killed or injured. Among the injured or killed passengers, 128 (73.6%) were nonadult passengers under the age of 18 years. Seventy of these crashes occurred while the car was in pursuit by police. The adjusted relative risk of injury to at least one occupant in the vehicle should a crash occur for female underage drivers was two times (OR=2.01, 95% CI=1.27-3.20) as compared to male underage drivers. DISCUSSION: Underage driving poses a serious problem in terms of crash outcomes. Experimental driving and late-night outings for adolescents should be discouraged. Well-designed studies are required to further investigate the relationship between underage driving and on road risk-taking behavior among licensed adolescents. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Data obtained from this study indicate that adults, particularly parents, should discourage underage adolescents from experimenting driving and should actively cultivate a positive attitude toward driving.     

Distraction in older drivers - A face-to-face interview study

The prevalence of older drivers’ engagement in distracting activities while driving is largely unexplored. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in the city of Braunschweig, Germany, comparing a sample of older drivers (n = 205) to a group of middle-aged drivers (n = 209). The drivers were interviewed on their engagement in distracting activities during the last half an hour of their driving trip, including the frequency and duration of these activities, their perception of the risk associated with these distracting activities and the role of these activities in at-fault crashes. Middle-aged drivers were significantly more likely to engage in certain distracting activities than older drivers. With regard to the duration of interactions with the passengers older drivers were significantly more talkative than middle-aged drivers. Middle-aged drivers rated most of the distracting activities as significantly less dangerous than older drivers. Distraction-related crashes are not a special problem of older drivers but seem to be very comparable to the middle-aged drivers. It is concluded that older drivers’ reluctance to engage in distracting tasks while driving is either a process of self-regulation or their age-related prudence. The study is the first to gather knowledge about distraction in German older drivers. Although older drivers are not currently overrepresented in distraction-related crashes, it is important to note that future cohorts of older drivers might differ in the way they engage with vehicles and technologies, which in turn may influence their driving patterns and willingness to engage in potentially distracting activities.     

Crashes of novice teenage drivers: characteristics and contributing factors

OBJECTIVE: The initial months of licensure are especially hazardous for teenagers. Factors leading to crashes of novice 16-year-old drivers were identified. METHOD: Sixteen year-olds in Connecticut who were involved in nonfatal crashes during the first 8 months of licensure were interviewed, and police crash reports were examined. Crash types and contributing factors were identified. RESULTS: Three-fourths of the crash-involved teenagers were at fault. Their crashes resulted primarily when they ran off the road, rear ended another vehicle, or collided with another vehicle that had the right-of-way. Three factors contributed about equally to their crashes: failing to detect another vehicle or traffic control, speeding, and losing control of the vehicle or sliding. Slippery roads also were an important factor. Most failures to detect another vehicle or traffic control involved not looking thoroughly, distraction, or inattention. DISCUSSION: Based on the findings, potential countermeasures for reducing crashes of novice teenage drivers include adequate practice driving, in-vehicle monitoring devices, and electronic stability control. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: More than half of the nonfatal, at-fault crashes of newly licensed 16-year-old drivers involved more than one contributing factor including speed, loss of control, and slippery roads. Efforts to reduce teenage crashes should focus on these factors.     

Probationary and non-probationary drivers' nighttime crashes in Western Australia, 1996-2000

INTRODUCTION: This study was designed to explore the temporal aspects of crashes for probationary and non-probationary drivers. METHODS: Data from the West Australian Road Injury Database from 1996-2000 were used to calculate age-sex-specific crash rates per 100,000 person-days and to plot proportions of fatal and hospital crashes by time for probationary and non-probationary drivers. The population attributable risk was used to estimate the potential number of lives saved by nighttime driving restriction in the probationary period. RESULTS: Probationary drivers were seven times more likely to crash than non-probationary drivers. While the highest number of crashes was in the daytime, probationary drivers had a higher proportion of fatal or hospitalization crashes at night than non-probationary drivers. CONCLUSION: Restrictions on driving at night could form part of graduated driver training. Even if some probationary drivers disobeyed the restriction, a substantial reduction in car occupant fatalities and hospitalizations could result.     

Implementation of Washington State's zero tolerance law: patterns of arrests, dispositions, and recidivism

OBJECTIVES: Zero tolerance (ZT) laws have been effective in reducing alcohol-related crashes among underage drivers. However, enforcement in some states has not been rigorous, and ZT offenses may not be viewed as serious offenses. On July 1, 1994, the state of Washington implemented a ZT law that allowed police to request a test for alcohol on suspicion of either a ZT or driving-under-the-influence (DUI) offense. The present study examined effects of the ZT law on arrests and case dispositions among underage offenders as a function of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and post-law patterns of recidivism. METHODS: Times-series analyses examined the effects of the ZT law on trends in arrests of underage drivers between 1991 and 1999. Based on arrest records matched with driver's license records, the effects of the law on dispositions of alcohol-related offenses among underage drivers were examined, and rates of recidivism among underage offenders were examined for the period following the ZT law. RESULTS: There was a substantial increase in arrests of underage drivers beginning immediately after implementation of the ZT law, especially among drivers with low BACs. The types of court or administrative dispositions received by underage offenders changed markedly after the ZT law was implemented. Underage offenders with lower BACs became far more likely to receive alcohol-related convictions and/or license suspensions. However, the percentage of underage offenders with higher BACs receiving DUI convictions declined as some of these offenders received the lesser ZT disposition. After the ZT law, underage offenders with BACs of 0.10 g/dL or higher were more likely to recidivate than those with lower BACs, but appreciable proportions of drivers were re-arrested for another alcohol offense, whatever the BAC and however they were penalized. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of Washington's law indicates that a ZT law can increase the likelihood that an underage person will be sanctioned for drinking and driving. However, recidivism remains an issue as more than one in four underage drivers arrested with low BACs subsequently were re-arrested.     

An examination of the characteristics and traffic risks of drivers suspended/revoked for different reasons

PROBLEM: Prior research has demonstrated that suspended/revoked drivers pose a significant traffic risk, but until now little has been known about whether, and if so how, this risk varies as a function of the reason for suspension/revocation. METHOD: This study classifies suspended/revoked drivers into subgroups based on their reason for suspension/revocation, and then develops demographic and driving record profiles for each group. Separate driving record profiles are developed for the following traffic safety indicators, measured 3 years prior to the suspension/revocation action: (a) total crashes, (b) fatal/injury crashes, (c) total traffic convictions, and (d) total incidents (crashes + convictions). RESULTS: The findings clearly show that: (a) suspended/revoked drivers are a heterogeneous group, both demographically and in their driving behavior; (b) some suspended drivers, such as those suspended/revoked for a non-driving offense, have low traffic risks that are not much higher than those of validly-licensed drivers, and; (c) all suspended groups have elevated crash and conviction rates, compared to validly-licensed drivers. DISCUSSION: The implications of these findings for current laws and policies targeting suspended/revoked drivers are discussed, and recommendations for improving these laws/policies are presented. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: None.     

Analyses of rear-end crashes based on classification tree models

OBJECTIVE: Signalized intersections are accident-prone areas especially for rear-end crashes due to the fact that the diversity of the braking behaviors of drivers increases during the signal change. The objective of this article is to improve knowledge of the relationship between rear-end crashes occurring at signalized intersections and a series of potential traffic risk factors classified by driver characteristics, environments, and vehicle types. METHODS: Based on the 2001 Florida crash database, the classification tree method and Quasi-induced exposure concept were used to perform the statistical analysis. Two binary classification tree models were developed in this study. One was used for the crash comparison between rear-end and non-rear-end to identify those specific trends of the rear-end crashes. The other was constructed for the comparison between striking vehicles/drivers (at-fault) and struck vehicles/drivers (not-at-fault) to find more complex crash pattern associated with the traffic attributes of driver, vehicle, and environment. RESULTS: The modeling results showed that the rear-end crashes are over-presented in the higher speed limits (45-55 mph); the rear-end crash propensity for daytime is apparently larger than nighttime; and the reduction of braking capacity due to wet and slippery road surface conditions would definitely contribute to rear-end crashes, especially at intersections with higher speed limits. The tree model segmented drivers into four homogeneous age groups: < 21 years, 21-31 years, 32-75 years, and > 75 years. The youngest driver group shows the largest crash propensity; in the 21-31 age group, the male drivers are over-involved in rear-end crashes under adverse weather conditions and the 32-75 years drivers driving large size vehicles have a larger crash propensity compared to those driving passenger vehicles. CONCLUSIONS: Combined with the quasi-induced exposure concept, the classification tree method is a proper statistical tool for traffic-safety analysis to investigate crash propensity. Compared to the logistic regression models, tree models have advantages for handling continuous independent variables and easily explaining the complex interaction effect with more than two independent variables. This research recommended that at signalized intersections with higher speed limits, reducing the speed limit to 40 mph efficiently contribute to a lower accident rate. Drivers involved in alcohol use may increase not only rear-end crash risk but also the driver injury severity. Education and enforcement countermeasures should focus on the driver group younger than 21 years. Further studies are suggested to compare crash risk distributions of the driver age for other main crash types to seek corresponding traffic countermeasures.     

The impact of changes to the NSW graduated driver licensing system on subsequent crash and offense experience

Introduction: In mid-2007 the State of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia introduced modifications to the existing graduated driver licensing system, lengthening the mandatory number of supervised hours for learner drivers aged under 25 years from 50 to 120 and extending the minimum learner period from 6 to 12 months. Additional driving restrictions were also introduced for young drivers in the two provisional licensed periods, P1, P2. This paper aims to evaluate this change by comparing the crash and offense experiences of young learner drivers before and after it occurred. Method: From driver licensing files supplied by the NSW transport authority two cohorts of persons obtaining their initial learner's permits in the year prior to the changes and in the subsequent year were constructed with demographic data, dates of transition to the driving phases, dates of crashes, and dates and types of traffic offenses. Both cohorts comprised around 100,000 individuals. Crash rates per 100 years of person-time under observation post P1 with their standard errors were calculated. Using a survival-analytic approach the proportion of crashes of all types were graphed in three month periods post P1. Sexes were treated separately as were initial learner ages of 16, 17, 18–21, and 22–24 years. The distribution of traffic offense types during P1 and P2 phases were also compared. With such large numbers formal statistical testing was avoided. Results: No meaningful differences in the crash or offense experiences of the two cohorts in either sex or at any age were observed. Delaying progress to unsupervised driving has road safety benefits. Conclusions: At least in conditions similar to those in NSW, requiring more than 50 h of supervised driving seems to have few road safety benefits. Practical applications: Licensing authorities should be cautious in extending the mandated number of supervised driving hours beyond 50.     

The influence of the age and sex distributions of drivers on the reduction of impaired crashes: Ontario, 1974-1999

Legislative changes and public media campaigns to prevent impaired driving are often cited as explanations for the reduction in the rate of impaired crashes over the past 25 years in most of the industrialized world. Other factors may have contributed to these reductions, such as changes in the age and sex distribution of the driver population. The primary purpose of this article is to assess the extent to which the reduction in impaired crashes in Ontario, Canada, may be attributable to the changing age and sex distribution of drivers. In Ontario, the rate of impaired crashes declined by 78.1% from 1974 to 1999. During this time period, the average age of drivers increased from 39.4 years in 1974 to 43.2 in 1999. Similarly, from 1974 to 1999 the percentage of all drivers that were women increased from 39.6% to 46.8%. Since statistics show the likelihood of impaired crashes is lower for both older drivers and women, the reduction of impaired crashes is partially due to these demographic changes. Using indirect standardization, the aging population accounted for an 8.6% decline in the rate of impaired crashes. The changing sex distribution of drivers accounted for a 9.4% decline in impaired crashes. Other global factors may also help to explain the reduction of impaired crashes, such as general road safety improvements and reductions in per adult consumption of alcohol.     

Adolescent driving: Characteristics associated with single-vehicle and injury crashes

The high motor-vehicle crash rate of young drivers may be attributed to both driving inexperience and a greater tendency to engage in risk-taking behavior. This study examines risk-taking behavior, as indicated by single-vehicle crashes and injury crashes, and factors associated with these behaviors, based on measures of demographic, psychosocial, and substance use obtained from high school senior questionnaires. Because previous work indicated different predictors for young men and young women, separate logistic regression analyses were conducted. For young women, propensity toward cigarette use was associated with higher rates of single-vehicle crashes; while race, alcohol misuse, and friends' involvement with alcohol and marijuana were associated with injury crashes. For young men, availability of substances, driving frequency, alcohol misuse, and propensity toward marijuana use were associated with higher rates of single-vehicle crashes. Young men's living situation, availability of substances, and marijuana use were related to injury crashes.     

Improving graduated driver licensing systems: a conceptual approach and its implications

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) is a concept for how to transform non-drivers into reasonably safe drivers while minimizing the risks as they learn. Several state GDL programs can be improved by moving their structures closer to an adequate implementation of that concept. The learner stage of a GDL system needs to be long enough for beginners to obtain a thorough introduction to the vagaries of driving. The second or intermediate stage needs to effectively limit exposure to known high risk conditions as novices adapt to being fully in charge of the vehicle. The benefits of GDL to date are due almost entirely to the risk-reducing conditions it implements. To improve the functioning of GDL will probably require a better understanding of teen driving than we presently have. The likelihood of further gains will be enhanced by efforts to learn more about the actual causes of teen crashes, the nature and type of teen driver exposures, and what parents do with their teens during the supervised driving stage of GDL. Without a better understanding of these, and other, phenomena it will be difficult to further reduce crashes among young beginning drivers, whether through GDL enhancements or with other approaches.