GENERALIZED LOW-FLOW FREQUENCY RELATIONSHIPS FOR UNGAGED SITES IN MASSACHUSETTS1

ABSTRACT: Regional hydrologic procedures such as generalized least squares regression and streamflow record augmentation have been advocated for obtaining estimates of both flood-flow and low-flow statistics at ungaged sites. While such procedures are extremely useful in regional flood-flow studies, no evaluation of their merit in regional low-flow estimation has been made using actual streamflow data. This study develops generalized regional regression equations for estimating the d-day, T-year low-flow discharge, Q_{d, t}, at ungaged sites in Massachusetts where d = 3, 7, 14, and 30 days. A two-parameter lognormal distribution is fit to sequences of annual minimum d-day low-flows and the estimated parameters of the lognormal distribution are then related to two drainage basin characteristics: drainage area and relief. The resulting models are general, simple to use, and about as precise as most previous models that only provide estimates of a single statistic such as Q_7,10. Comparisons are provided of the impact of using ordinary least squares regression, generalized least squares regression, and streamflow record augmentation procedures to fit regional low-flow frequency models in Massachusetts.     

APPLICATION OF A LOW-FLOW ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR THE MONONGAHELA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The application of a low-flow assessment model is illustrated for the Monogahela River Basin. The model simulates the impact of reservoir operating rules and consumptive use limitation policies on low-flow frequency at downstream locations in the basin. Policies are evaluated using an observed flow sequence and synthetic flow inputs. The paper reviews the historical development of flow management on the Monogahela to provide background for the current study.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF GROUND WATER USE AND REPLENISHMENT1

A statistical technique which offers considerable promise in ground water studies is the fitting of polynomial trend-surfaces to ground water data and studying the variations in the surfaces and the residuals from these surfaces over a period of time. The application of trend-surface analysis to ground water study is based on the premise that the piezometric surface or water table can be approximated by a mathematically computed polynomial surface of the water levels of the wells in the aquifer. The evaluation of trend surface analysis application in ground water investigations was made up essentially of two considerations; a study of the relationship existing between the trend surfaces and the actual ground water surface and a study of the potential use of the residuals from the trend-surfaces to assist in the location of favorable sites for future development of ground water resources. The conclusions on aquifer behavior drawn from the trend surface analysis were compared with conclusions drawn from a concurrent survey of ground water conditions carried out independently of this investigation. This comparison provided the basis for the critical examination of the application of trend-surface analysis in ground water investigations.     

FROZEN SOIL IMPACT ON GROUND WATER‐SURFACE WATER INTERACTION1

ABSTRACT: Ground water and surface water interaction in the prairie pothole region of the United States and Canada is seasonally dominated by the presence of thick, frozen soil layers that affect infiltration. During a spring thaw, the subsoil may remain frozen, preventing infiltration. The impact of the frozen soil layer on the timing of infiltration of depressional‐focused recharge to the ground water is not clearly understood. The objective of this paper is to relate changes in the water table during spring to changes in frost depth and soil water content. A depression and adjacent upland study site were instrumented with CRREL‐type frost tubes, neutron probe access tubes, and ground water monitoring wells. Increases in water table levels in a depression occurred before the frost layer decomposed and infiltrating water quickly formed a recharge mound. Water table responses at the upland site took place as two events. The first event was a gradual rise, probably caused by the lateral dissemination of the recharge mound. The second rise was a rapid rise coinciding with the decomposition of the soil frost layer. Because of the accumulation of surface water in depressions, agricultural practices that remove water from a field can affect water resources management by limiting the addition of water recharge to unconfmed ground water.     

REGIONALIZATION OF LOW-FLOW FREQUENCY ESTIMATES: AN ALABAMA CASE STUI)Y1

ABSTRACT: Low-flow estimates, as determined by probabilistic modeling of observed data sequences, are commonly used to describe certain streamflow characteristics. Unfortunately, however, reliable low-flow estimates can be difficult to come by, particularly for gaging sites with short record lengths. The shortness of records leads to uncertainties not only in the selection of a distribution for modeling purposes but also in the estimates of the parameters of a chosen model. In flood frequency analysis, the common approach to mitigation of some of these problems is through the regionalization of frequency behavior. The same general approach is applied here to the case of low-flow estimation, with the general intent of not only improving low-flow estimates but also illustrating the gains that might be attained in so doing. Data used for this study is that which has been systematically observed at 128 streamflow gaging sites across the State of Alabama. Our conclusions are that the log Pearson Type 3 distribution is a suitable candidate for modeling of Alabama low-flows, and that the shape parameter of that distribution can be estimated on a regional basis. Low-flow estimates based on the regional estimator are compared with estimates based on the use of only at-site estimation techniques.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSUMPTION1

The purpose of this study was to determine the degree of influence of various factors on municipal water consumption in Illinois. For the collection of basic data, questionnaires were sent to all public water works of incorporated towns. The questionnaire was designed to obtain information on factors which may have any effect on water use. The effects of the different parameters on water consumption were based on several correlation and regression combinations of predictands and predictors. It was found that in the Chicago region the percent of services and water used for commercial and industrial purposes and the age of the water works were the most important parameters influencing water consumption (gallons per capita per day) when pumpage is metered at the water works as well as at the customers. For the State, excluding the Chicago region, percent of public water use, persons per service, population and commercial and industrial water use were the most important parameters. It has been recommended that similar statistical analysis be conducted periodically to establish a trend or law of change from the influencing parameters.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS FROM CHANGES IN GROUND WATER PUMPAGE1

ABSTRACT: Simulation of a large stream-aquifer system in Nebraska has been accomplished for the period from 1975 to 2020 to determine effects of controls on ground water pumpage. Three scenarios tested consisted of average annual withdrawals of 15.2 ac-in/ac (FUTURE 1), 14.8 ac-in/ac (FUTURE 2), and 9.8 ac-in/ac (FUTURE 3). The highest quantity represents the historical tendency; while the 14.8 in. figure represents a slight reduction and also represents an equalization of irrigation application efficiencies throughout the area. The lowest figure represents a substantial increase in application efficiency. Comparisons between simulated ground water elevations indicate maximum savings of FUTURE 2 over FUTURE 1 of less than 8 ft. FUTURE 3 ft. FUTURE 3 levels are projected to be a maximum of approximately 13 ft. higher than FUTURE 1's. The relatively small savings from reductions in pumpage result primarily from recirculation effects. Differences between ground water contributions to stream flow are small for all scenarios. These contributions decrease with time and increasing pumpage amounts. Base flow rates at the end of the simulation are approximately 25 percent of those at the beginning.     

IMPACT OF COAL SURFACE MINING ON THREE OHIO WATERSHEDS - SURFACE-WATER HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: A study was conducted to determine the effects of mining and reclaiming originally undisturbed watersheds on surface-water hydrology in three small experimental watersheds in Ohio. Approximately six years of data were collected at each site, with differing lengths of premining (Phase 1), mining and reclamation (Phase 2), and post-reclamation (Phase 3) periods. Mining and reclamation activities showed no consistent pattern iii base-flow, and caused slightly more frequent higher daily flow volumes. Phase 2 activities can cause reductions in seasonal variation in double mass curves compared with Phase 1. Restoration of seasonal variations was noticeably apparent at one site during Phase 3. The responses of the watersheds to rainfall intensities causing larger peak flow rates generally decreased due to mining and reclamation, but tended to exceed responses observed in Phase 1 during Phase 3. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve numbers increased due to mining and reclamation (Phase 2), ranging from 83 to 91. During Phase 3, curve numbers remained approximately constant from Phase 2, ranging from 87 to 91.     

ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF GROUND WATER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY DECISIONS1

ABSTRACT: The full range of environmental and economic services of ground water need to be accounted for in policy decisions. Non-recognition of these services imputes a lower value for the ground water resource in establishing policies. We describe a conceptual framework for identifying and measuring the economic value of groundwater. The valuation framework links changes in physical characteristics of ground water to services provided by ground water and the economic effects of changes in ground water services. In addition to the framework, we develop a general protocol to follow for assessing the benefits of ground water policies. Application of the protocol will aid in establishing structure and consistency across policy assessments and improve the accuracy and completeness of benefit estimates, avoid double-counting problems, and eliminate duplication of ground water valuation efforts.     

THE EFFECTS OF RECENT CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: In North America the four successive winters from 1974-1975 through 1977–1978 were very different from each other in terms of atmospheric circulation and resulting surface weather conditions. The first year of the sequence there was a near normal circulation pattern. The following years were characterized by the gradual amplification of an upper atmosphere ridge over the West Coast coupled with an eastward displacement of a long-wave trough east of the Rocky Mountains. These changes in circulation brought below normal temperatures to the Midwest, below normal precipition and increasing snowfall which reached record levels in February 1978. These atmospheric changes brought about changes in the flow of the Kankakee River-Total runoff in the winter half-year dropped as precipitation and temperatures dropped; there was a marked retarding of winter runoff and the yield of the watershed increased.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

IMPACT OF A TURFGRASS SYSTEM ON NUTRIENT LOADINGS TO SURFACE WATER1

ABSTRACT: Turfgrass systems are one of the most intensively managed land uses in the United States. Establishment and maintenance of high quality turfgrass usually implies substantial inputs of water, nutrients, and pesticides. The focus of this work was to quantify the concentration and loading of a typically maintained municipal turfgrass environment on surface water. Water quantity and quality data were collected from a golf course in Austin, Texas, and analyzed for a 13‐month period from March 20, 1998, to April 30, 1999. Twenty‐two precipitation events totaling 722 mm, produced an estimated 98 mm of runoff. Nutrient analysis of surface runoff exiting the course exhibited a statistically significant (p < 0.05) increase in median nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen (NO₃+NO₂‐N) concentration compared to runoff entering the course, a statistically significant decrease in ammonia nitrogen (NH₄‐N), but no difference in orthophosphate (PO₄‐P). During the 13‐month period, storm runoff contributed an estimated 2.3 kg/ha of NO₃+NO₂‐N and 0.33 kg/ha of PO₄‐P to the stream. Storm flow accounted for the attenuation of 0.12 kg/ha of NH₄‐N. Baseflow nutrient analysis showed a statistically significant increase in median NO₃+NO₂‐N, a significant reduction in NH₄‐N, and no change in PO₄‐P. Estimated NO₃+NO₂‐N mass in the baseflow was calculated as 4.7 kg/ha. PO₄‐P losses were estimated at 0.06 kg/ha, while 0.8 kg/ha of NH₄‐N were attenuated in baseflow over the study period. Even though nutrient concentrations exiting the system rarely exceeded nutrient screening levels, this turfgrass environment did contribute increased NO₃+NO₂‐N and PO₄‐P loads to the stream. This emphasizes the need for parallel studies where management intensity, soil, and climate differ from this study and for golf course managers to utilize an integrated management program to protect water quality while maintaining healthy turfgrass systems.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUND WATER IN LANSING,MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri‐County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.     

USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO ASSIST PARAMETER ZONATION IN GROUND WATER FLOW MODEL1

ABSTRACT: For numerical modeling of ground water movement in a real aquifer system, the aquifer is usually divided into hydrogeologically defined zones, each with its own parameter values. The responses of the system, such as head or drawdown, are often available only in some of the zones. The estimated parameters of all the zones are based on the measured response in these limited zones. However, the estimates for some of the zones may be very uncertain, and these zones are therefore not justified by the data. In this paper, an approach is presented to understand which zone may produce uncertain parameter values and should be lumped with its neighbor. This approach is demonstrated using a regional numerical model for pumping test analysis in the Nottinghamshire aquifer, UK. A step-by-step process is used in identifying the aquifer zones and estimating their parameters based on the principle of using the smallest possible numbers of zones and parameters for adequate representation of the drawdown response. After the parameters of each zone are estimated, the sensitivity features of these parameters are examined. The results show that the parameters in one zone can be estimated properly by the drawdown in another zone only when there is significant sensitivity. For transmissivity, sensitivity between zones occurs when there is significant flow between them. For storativity, sufficient sensitivity can occur without large flows between the zones, provided that one zone causes significant drawdown in the other. This idea can be extended to the flow model for a large aquifer system. If the aquifer is divided in such a way that aquifer responses are not sensitive to the parameters in some of the zones, the parameters in those zones cannot be estimated properly and should be lumped into their neighboring zones. In this way, a simple but more reasonable model can be built.     

THE GROUND WATER FLUX OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS TO BERMUDA'S COASTAL WATERS1

ABSTRACT: The concentrations of dissolved fixed inorganic nitrogen (ΣN) in Bermuda ground waters can be very high due to both natural and anthropogenic processes. The high anthropogenic flux is due to domestic cesspit operation. Mass balance calculations indicate that ground water seepage, especially rich in ΣN, is a major source of nutrients into the near shore coastal zone of Bermuda. The ground water flux of ΣN is approximately 1.5 to 4 times that of the sewage flux of ΣN to Bermuda's nearshore waters. This input of ΣN may be important in the development of algal blooms in these waters. Our work, coupled with other recent investigations, suggests that the ground water input of nutrients into nearshore marine waters is an important process globally.     

MODELING THE FOREST HYDROLOGY OF WETLAND-UPLAND ECOSYSTEMS IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Few hydrological models are applicable to pine flat-woods which are a mosaic of pine plantations and cypress swamps. Unique features of this system include ephemeral sheet flow, shallow dynamic ground water table, high rainfall and evapotranspiration, and high infiltration rates. A FLATWOODS model has been developed specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape by integrating a 2-D ground water model, a Variable-Source-Area (VAS)-based surface flow model, an evapotranspiration (ET) model, and an unsaturated water flow model. The FLATWOODS model utilizes a distributed approach by dividing the entire simulation domain into regular cells. It has the capability to continuously simulate the daily values of ground water table depth, ET, and soil moisture content distributions in a watershed. The model has been calibrated and validated with a 15-year runoff and a four-year ground water table data set from two different pine flat woods research watersheds in northern Florida. This model may be used for predicting hydrologic impacts of different forest management practices in the coastal regions.     

MODELING THE IMPACT OF MULTICOMPONENT VOCs ON GROUND WATER USING THE STEFAN‐MAXWELL EQUATION1

ABSTRACT: Computer programs that model the fate and transport of organic contaminants through porous media typically use Fick's first law to calculate vapor phase diffusion. Fick's first law, however, is limited to the case of a single, dilute species diffusing into a stagnant, high concentration, bulk vapor phase. When dealing with more than one diffusing species and at higher concentrations, the multicomponent coupling effects on vapor phase diffusion and advection of the various constituents become significant. VLEACH, a one‐dimensional finite difference model developed for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), is typical of the models using Fick's first law to model vapor‐phase diffusion. The VLEACH model was modified to accommodate up to 10 components and to calculate the binary diffusion coefficients for each of the components based on molecular weight, molecular volume, temperature and pressure, and to address the coupling effects on multiple component vapor phase diffusion and its impact on ground water. The resulting model was renamed MC‐CHEMSOIL. At low vapor phase concentrations, MC‐CHEMSOIL predicts identical ground water impacts (dissolved phase loading) to those from VLEACH 2.2a. At higher vapor phase concentrations, however, the relative difference between the models exceeded 20 percent.     

GEOCHEMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF SHALLOW GROUND WATER IN THE EUTAW AQUIFER,MONTGOMERY, ALABAMA1

ABSTRACT: Ground water samples were collected from 30 wells located in, or directly down gradient from, recharge areas of the Eutaw aquifer in Montgomery, Alabama. The major ion content of the water evolves from calcium‐sodium‐chloride‐dominated type in the recharge area to calcium‐bicarbonate‐dominated type in the confined portion of the aquifer. Ground water in the recharge area was under saturated with respect to aluminosilicate and carbonate minerals. Ground water in the confined portion of the aquifer was at equilibrium levels for calcite and potassium feldspar. Dissolved oxygen and nitrite‐plus‐nitrate concentrations decreased as ground water age increased; pH, iron, and sulfate concentrations increased as ground water age increased. Aluminum, copper, and zinc concentrations decreased as ground water age and pH increased. These relations indicate that nitrate, aluminum, copper, and zinc are removed from solution as water moves from recharge areas to the confined areas of the Eutaw aquifer. The natural evolution of ground water quality, which typically increases the pH and decreases the dissolved oxygen content, may be an important limiting factor to the migration of nitrogen based compounds and metals.     

A LUMPED APPROACH TO THE INVERSE PROBLEM IN GROUND WATER HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: A solution procedure to solve the inverse problem in ground water, based on lumped approach, has been proposed. The method has the following advantages: 1) exact determination of the boundary conditions and the physical laws of flow through porous media is not required; 2) all errors of approximation in describing the boundary conditions, physical laws, and the aquifer properties are lumped into the surrogate parameters; and 3) the same mathematical model can be employed both in the identification process and in the subsequent management studies. The optimal values of the surrogate parameters are found by using a multidimensional unconstrained optimization code devised by Powell. The solution procedure and the convergence characteristics of the proposed algorithm have been illustrated by two hypothetical problems.     

STABLE ISOTOPE CHARACTERIZATION OF THE IMPACTS OF ARTIFICIAL GROUND WATER RECHARGE1

ABSTRACT: Stable isotopes of deuterium and oxygen-18 of surface and ground water, together with anion concentrations and hydraulic gradients, were used to interpret mixing and flow in ground water impacted by artificial recharge. The surface water fraction (SWF), the percentage of surface water in the aquifer impacted via recharge, was estimated at different locations and depths using measured deuterium/hydrogen (DIH) ratios during the 1992, 1993, and 1994 recharge seasons. Recharged surface water completely displaced the ground water beneath the recharge basins from the regional water table at 7.60 m to 12.16 m below the land surface. Mixing occurred beneath the recharge structures in the lower portions of the aquifer (>12.16 m). Approximately 12 m down-gradient from the recharge basin, the deeper zone (19.15 m depth) of the primary aquifer was displaced completely by recharged surface water within 193, 45, and 55 days in 1992, 1993, and 1994, respectively. At the end of the third recharge season, recharged surface water represented ～50 percent of the water in the deeper zone of the primary aquifer ～1000 m downgradient from the recharge basin. A classic asymmetrical distribution of recharged surface water resulted from the recharge induced horizontal and vertical hydraulic gradients. The distribution and breakthrough times of recharged surface water obtained with stable isotopes concurred with those of major anions and bromide in a tracer test conducted during the 1995 recharge season. This stable isotope procedure effectively quantified mixing between surface and ground water.