地震灾区救援力量优化调配模型

从救援对象的确定、救援队伍的需求和救援力量的调配三个方面,较为全面的讨论了地震灾区如何根据灾害情况和救援资源的分布,科学合理地开展救援力量的优化调配,以达到快速营救受困人员的目的。根据受灾情况确定对救援队伍的实际需求是分配救援力量的前提,从对象的确定和需求经验关系的给出两方面,讨论了如何根据地震破坏和灾区实际情况确定灾区对救灾力量,尤其是专业救援队伍的具体需求。队伍的优化调配是运筹学中运输问题的求解,基于现有线性优化算法,在地理信息平台上,建立了队伍优化分配的模型和软件。采用汶川地震的实际数据进行了实例计算和分析,给出了今后在救灾过程中科学调配救援力量的可参考样本。     

一种基于最短路径的地震救援力量部署模型

针对地震救援这一非常态社会活动,在灾情信息上报及时且全面的前提下,对现有救援力量尤其是善于应对困难情况的各支专业救援队进行部署,以达到救援力量的有效利用,尤其是在讲究效率的黄金72 h中显得格外重要。在各救援点优先等级研究的基础上,建立合理的数学模型,利用图论的路径分析功能在地图上实现救援力量的合理部署。     

Control or rescue at sea? Aims and limits of border surveillance technologies in the Mediterranean Sea

The matter of boat migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea, seeking to reach Europe, is interchangeably defined as a ‘security issue', requiring stricter border controls, and as a humanitarian issue with corresponding rescue and protection requirements. This paper seeks to understand what role various surveillance technologies, such as radar, satellites, and unmanned aerial vehicles, can play in this respect (legally and technically), in comparison to the role that they are assigned (that is, political expectations). To unravel what surveillance technologies can and cannot do vis‐à‐vis the aims of control and rescue, there is a need to comprehend what information can be collected and what information is needed to fulfil these objectives. The paper contends that there is a mismatch between the information sought to ‘control’ borders, but which cannot be gathered effectively by or processed using surveillance technologies, and the valuable information needed to perform rescue operations, which these surveillance technologies can supply.     

Impact of psychological risk factors on disaster rescue operations: the case of Italian volunteers

This paper reports on research into the characteristics of emergency rescue workers, with a focus on psychological distress. We present the results of a study of volunteers from the Italian national civil protection programme. A questionnaire was administered to 2,576 subjects from all over Italy. Most respondents were men, mostly unemployed, whose average level of education was higher than that among most Italian volunteers. Many were poorly endowed with basic skills, with large differences according to geography. Many expected to convert their volunteer activities into permanent jobs. Using this data, we employed a logistical regression model to analyse the risk of low, moderate and severe psychological distress symptoms, including anxiety and panic attacks, during rescue operations. The results indicate that some rescuers are particularly vulnerable to distress. The highest risk factors pertained to volunteers from southern Italy whose training is inadequate, who have little experience of emergency work and who play subordinate roles in small teams that lack psychological support services.     

基于多元统计分析的火灾灾后抢险物资配送模型研究

传统物资配送方法存在配送物资效率低、配送成本高等缺点,为了及时确定抢险物资应急救援路线,向火灾受灾点快速配送抢险物资,提出基于多元统计分析的火灾灾后抢险物资配送模型。建模时采用多元统计分析法分析火灾受灾点救援需求和配送路线连通随机性,以及救援出发点对受灾点的最大覆盖范围的限制,利用加权贝叶斯算法将物资配送多目标规划问题转变成单目标规划问题,建立抢险物资配送单目标规划模型;运用遗传算法对模型求解,并采用惩罚函数处理模型中的约束条件,实现物资在受灾点之间均衡分配。     

可移动充气式应急救护装置的研究

可移动充气式应急救护装置是一种重点针对地铁火灾的新型消防抢险救援装备,主要由风机、风管、救护站及其他辅助设备组成,其工作原理是采用机械通风的方式在救护站内建立正压,阻止外界烟气进入,从而在充满烟气的事故现场建立一个没有烟气的临时安全场所。可用于救助受困人员,方便消防员更换装备和休息调整,以及便于消防部队建立前沿临时指挥点等,为消防部队处置地铁火灾提供了解决问题的新思路和新方法,对提高消防部队在地铁火灾中的抢险救援能力有着重要的作用。除此之外,还可用于其它类型的地下建筑、大空间建筑(如商场)等场所的消防抢险救援。     

地下水开采引起的地表变形调查方法

过量的地下水开采可以诱发地面沉陷、建筑物开裂破坏等城市地质灾害和工程地质环境问题。通过对某工厂地表变形特征和分布规律的调查分析，论证了地下水开采与地表变形的关系，指出其某个水井抽水是引起厂区及附近地表变形的主要诱因，且水井距离地下水径流带越近，地表变形就越严重。实践证明，通过水文地质与工程地质调查和抽水试验，可以推断抽水与地面沉陷的水力联系，利用天然电场选频法、联合剖面法、高密度电法和探地雷达等物探方法能够从空间上判断地表及建筑物变形的动力源；动、静态应变的实时观测和分析可以从时间上证实抽水与地面变形的因果关系。     

中国地震次生地质灾害分布及地市级危险性区划研究

地震次生地质灾害指由地震活动引起的地质灾害。地震次生地质灾害,主要为崩塌、滑坡,其次为塌陷、地裂缝、砂土液化等。地震次生地质灾害增强了地震的破坏效应,加剧了地震灾害的损失程度,给抢险救灾和灾后重建造成很大困难。一般震级大于5级、烈度超过6度的地震可能引发不同程度的地质灾害,震级和烈度越高,次生地质灾害越严重。本文根据中国历史地震次生地质灾害的活动程度及发生条件,以地(市、区、盟)为单元,进行了危险性评价:高度和中度危险区主要分布在中国中部的陕甘宁川渝滇藏地区,形成一个大致北北东向的高危险带,其余大部分地区为轻度危险区。     

Risk factors for long‐term post‐traumatic stress disorder among medical rescue workers appointed to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake response in China

This study aims to determine the risk factors for clinically‐significant post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among Chinese medical rescue workers one year after the response to the Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008. A sample of 337 medical workers who performed response work within the first three months of the event completed an online questionnaire, which included information on demographics, social support, the management and organisation of the disaster response, and an assessment of PTSD. Symptoms consistent with PTSD were prevalent in 17 per cent of the rescue workers. Those who developed PTSD symptoms were more likely to have been injured, experienced a water shortage, been disconnected from family and friends during the response, and have passive coping styles and neurotic personalities. Factors that cannot be changed easily, such as personality traits, should be evaluated prior to deployment to ensure that rescue workers at higher risk of PTSD are provided with adequate support before and during deployment.     

河间地区地裂缝分形特征研究

基于分形理论研究了河间地区地裂缝的分布分形、受控分形以及影响分形特征,利用MAT-LAB软件分别计算了地裂缝、活动断裂、地下水、地面沉降等相关物理量的分维值。地裂缝的发育具有自组织性,其分维值的大小及变化反映了地裂缝活动的复杂性。地裂缝平面、剖面分形特征反映了该区域孕裂应力场在平面和纵深方向上的非均一性。地裂缝的形成和发育可以看作是断裂运动的一种调整,影响地裂缝断裂的分维值具有一定的区间。地下水开采、地面沉降作用与地裂缝活动存在很大的关联。     

The role of the organisational psychologist in disasters and emergency situations

Interventions in extreme situations, such as natural or technological disasters, terrorist attacks or emergencies in general, take place in settings of great uncertainty and are always accompanied by extraordinary circumstances. For this reason, there are various processes related to implementing intervention protocols that must be carefully examined, including an evaluation of work scenarios, personnel selection, within-group relationships in work teams, decision-making processes, or certain peculiarities of burnout among emergency personnel. In the view of this author, an ad hoc review of the role of the organisational psychologist can highlight interesting analysis and performance possibilities that could make work in emergency and disasters contexts more effective. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the role of the organisational psychologist pre-and post-disaster. Furthermore, it supports the idea that professional profiles must be designed that take into account specific knowledge and skills, as well as certain aptitudes and values.     

‘Sea of blood’: the intended and unintended effects of criminalising humanitarian volunteers assisting migrants in distress at sea

This paper investigates the impact of the recent criminalisation of humanitarian actors engaged in the search for and rescue of migrants in distress in the Mediterranean Sea, focusing on the impact on the motivation and engagement of humanitarian volunteers in Greece. It argues that criminalisation is aimed at reducing search and rescue (SAR) activities and thus removing perceived ‘pull factors’ for migrants. The paper locates this phenomenon within the broader trend of policing and punishing those who assist migrants in order to deter them and prevent others from engaging in such endeavours. It finds that efforts to criminalise can have the unintended effects of encouraging and mobilising volunteers, as well as generating public attention and support for migrants. However, the negative consequences of criminalisation are far-reaching, including contributing to a high mortality rate among those crossing the Mediterranean without SAR capabilities and the heightened risk of violence against migrants and those who help them.     

Integrated disaster relief logistics: a stepping stone towards viable civil–military networks?

The twenty‐first century has seen a significant rise in all forms of disasters and this has resulted in military and humanitarian organisations becoming more frequently engaged in the provision of support to those affected. Achieving an efficient and effective logistic preparation and response is one of the key elements in mitigating the impact of such events, but the establishment of mechanisms to deliver an appropriately integrated civil–military approach remains elusive. Not least because of the high percentage of assistance budgets spent on logistics, this area is considered to represent fertile ground for developing improved processes and understanding. In practice, the demands placed on civilian and military logisticians are broadly similar, as is the solution space. Speaking a common language and using common concepts, it is argued, therefore, that the logistic profession should be in the vanguard of the development of an improved civil–military interface.     

Search and rescue in collapsed structures: engineering and social science aspects

This paper discusses the social science and engineering dimensions of search and rescue (SAR) in collapsed buildings. First, existing information is presented on factors that influence the behaviour of trapped victims, particularly human, physical, socioeconomic and circumstantial factors. Trapped victims are most often discussed in the context of structural collapse and injuries sustained. Most studies in this area focus on earthquakes as the type of disaster that produces the most extensive structural damage. Second, information is set out on the engineering aspects of urban search and rescue (USAR) in the United States, including the role of structural engineers in USAR operations, training and certification of structural specialists, and safety and general procedures. The use of computational simulation to link the engineering and social science aspects of USAR is discussed. This could supplement training of local SAR groups and USAR teams, allowing them to understand better the collapse process and how voids form in a rubble pile. A preliminary simulation tool developed for this purpose is described.     

Decision‐making behaviour during urban search and rescue: a case study of Germany

The objective of assisting with tasks and decisions during incident response is to reduce the risks to victims and rescue personnel while increasing the efficiency of the rescue operation. Handling uncertain information during urban search and rescue (USAR) missions represents additional stress to the decision‐maker. The aim of this study is to identify the decision‐making behaviour of rescuers during USAR missions to pinpoint trapped or buried victims in debris in order to design assistance technologies and decision‐support systems that meet their needs. In 2010, a survey was conducted among 10–15 per cent of all German rescue personnel specialised in search tasks. One of the major results of this survey is that a subjective assessment of the reliability of information available from heterogeneous sources influences the rescuers’ actions and that there is no methodology for decision‐making involving uncertain information. In addition, the study found that compliance with procedures does not require assistance.     

基于仿真原理的地震应急志愿者规模研究

中国是个地震多发但应对能力不强的国家,汶川地震再次暴露了中国专业地震应急救援力量不足的弊端。我们应该借鉴发达国家的经验,构建应急志愿者队伍,以提高我国的地震应急能力。根据仿真原理结合人力资源规模的确定方法,设计了地震应急救援系统仿真模型,并利用该模型计算了高校志愿者队伍的人数。该研究不但有助于丰富志愿者管理理论,同时能有效利用社会资源,提升我国地震应急救援能力,因此具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

Long-Term Effects of Hurricane Andrew: Revisiting Mental Health Indicators

Two population-based surveys of South Dade County, Florida, were conducted after Hurricane Andrew to compare hurricane-related symptoms of mental distress and describe the impact of mental health outreach teams. Households were selected by three-stage cluster sampling and findings from the two surveys, 13 months apart, were compared. Response rates were 75 per cent and 84 per cent. The prevalence of symptoms of mental distress decreased over time. However, in the households contacted by the teams (25 per cent of sample), the prevalence of symptoms (50 per cent) did not differ from households not contacted (43 per cent). Households contacted by teams that reported symptoms were just as likely to have been referred for help by the teams (72 per cent) as those without symptoms (68 per cent). Households reporting symptoms were equally likely to get counselling regardless of whether the teams visited. Mental health teams had no significant impact on mental health symptoms or the use of mental health services. Alternative approaches to mental health outreach teams need to be explored.     

防灾公园的减灾功能

地震灾害避难疏散的经验与教训表明 ,城市公园是重要的避难场所 ;防灾公园是减灾功能特别强的城市公园 ;城市公园改造成防灾公园或规划建设新的防灾公园可以提高城市公园的综合防灾减灾功能。发生城市突发事件时 ,防灾公园可以用作紧急避难所、灾害对策据点。防灾公园具有供居民避难以及确保避难人员基本生活条件的功能、防灾减灾功能、情报收集与传递功能、医疗与救护功能、运输基地功能等。强化防灾公园减灾功能的主要措施是广泛采用高新科学技术 ,并对防灾公园系统实施综合性的科学管理     

山西省主要地质灾害分析

着重讨论了山西省主要的地质灾害-地震、水土流失、地裂缝、地面塌陷的分布和成因。     

The 9/21 earthquake in Taiwan: a local government disaster rescue system1

This paper employs a three‐element model to examine how the disaster rescue system of the government of Nantou County in Middle Taiwan functioned following the earthquake of 21 September 1999. The three elements are information gathering, local government mobilisation, and inter‐organisational cooperation. The paper finds that the Nantou County government needs to address many problems associated with these three elements. Disaster information, for example, was not processed instantly because of the destruction of the electricity and telephone systems in the earthquake. Insufficient information caused ineffectiveness in the realms of mobilisation and inter‐organisational cooperation. As for mobilisation, while the Nantou County magistrate successfully used specific information to encourage flows of huge resources in the county, he did not successfully mobilise human resources there. With regard to inter‐organisational cooperation, myriad voluntary actors and international rescue teams travelled to Nantou County, but the fire and police services experienced cooperation and coordination problems.