Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer

The UK floods in late 2000 reinforced an emerging awareness which questioned the long-term sustainability of an exclusive reliance on hard-engineered flood defences to protect the UK population against increased flood risk. The debate has subsequently focused on a broader interpretation of the risks associated with flooding. This paper explores the notion that, although social and technical issues are already being integrated to understand and manage flood, practitioners are now realising the importance of accommodating public hazard understanding and perception of risk into their management models, and there remains a need to fit such ideas to the insurance-based system of flood management in the UK.     

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception–risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland–urban interface. The factors considered are direct experience, knowledge of wildfire risk, locus of responsibility, fulltime/seasonal status, and self-efficacy. Survey data from three homeowner associations in the western U.S. are used to estimate the direct and indirect effects of this relationship. Our results indicate that the effects of knowledge and locus of responsibility are mediated by homeowners' risk perceptions. We also find that beliefs of self-efficacy and fulltime/seasonal status have a direct influence on risk reduction behaviors. Finally, we find, surprisingly, that direct experience with wildfire does not directly influence the risk perception–risk mitigation process.     

Contextualising risk within enterprise risk management through the application of systems thinking

New and emerging risks create growing uncertainty and unpredictability within enterprise risk management. While ISO 31000:2009 is a progressive risk management framework, it is limited in its guidance on how to contextualise complex risks. The application of systems thinking to risk management provides the opportunity to better understand complexity by viewing risk and the consequence of change as part of overall system behaviour. System modelling tools enable organisations to better contextualise their risk landscape. These tools assist organisations to identify vulnerabilities between social and ecological variables in the system within they exist. Determining drivers of change leading to system vulnerabilities can assist in understanding threshold limits of the system, thus enabling the organisation to build system resilience and organisational sustainability.     

EIA in a risk society

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was developed and introduced in the 1960s during a time that was dominated by three key societal influences. These were the growth of modern environmental concern, the drive for more rational, scientific and objective environmental decision making and a desire for more public involvement in environmental decision making. The legitimacy of EIA, as a tool to aid decision making, lies in its ability to meet the requirements of all three demands, the chief among these being its ability to be a systematic scientific and rational approach to decision making. Yet today we live in a society that no longer accepts the rationalist model as either possible or desirable. The deference to ‘the expert’ and our trust in science and technology has steadily declined during the period of EIAs development and widespread use. Today, EIA still depends for its legitimacy on its claim to provide a systematic and scientific approach to assessments, while society has moved on. This paper examines this growing divergence and argues that it is time for a major re‐evaluation of the role of EIA in environmental decision making.     

The hazards of risk management

Summary Increasing application of the concept of risk raises several policy and management issues for environmental managers. Functionally, risk can be structured as risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. Each of these functional areas have complex technical issues associated with them that are often unfamiliar to the public.Dr Donald W. Floyd is an Assistant Professor in the School of Natural Resources at The Ohio State University. He specialises in natural resource/environmental policy, with an emphasis on conflict resolution.     

Ideology and environmental risk management

Summary Although risk management is interdisciplinary in nature, in practice it is excessively compartmentalized. For instance, two quite different orientations to risk management are commonly seen, the relationship between them being one of suspicious rivalry rather than cooperation. Thus, anyone interested in developing a more integrated form of risk management is faced with the problem of trying to understand why these opposed factions have developed and what sustains their mutual antagonism. Hopefully, this paper makes a contribution in this regard by discussing the psychological and socio-political roots of environmental ideology.Dr Alan Miller is currently Professor of Psychology at the University of New Brunswick. He received his early training in biology (in England) and ecology (in Canada). He subsequently spent several years pursuing research at the Northwest Institute for Medical Research in Chicago, USA. A growing interest in the human aspects of environmental and medical problems led to a further graduate study in psychology, followed by teaching positions in Ireland and Canada. His current interests include: the education of environmental professionals; the psychosocial problems involved in environmental management, and the problems inherent in interdisciplinary project groups.     

Nontarget-plant risk assessment for pesticide registration

The approach developed by Environment Canada to assess risk to aquatic and terrestrial plants in nontarget habitats potentially exposed to pesticides evaluated for registration is described. An anonymous sample of pesticide submissions is used to illustrate the approach and to examine its merits and limitations in relation to test species, response variability, testing protocols, ecological relevance, and comparability with other regulatory agencies. Future directions are identified, particularly in relation to impending nontarget-plant testing guidelines for pesticide registration in Canada. This approach incorporates some of the latest research and developments in the field of risk assessment for plants. The novelty of this approach also lies in the use of the plant screening data routinely generated by chemical pesticide companies, which is intended to provide a maximum amount of information to evaluators at minimal increment cost to registrants. The proposed approach can serve as a basis for guideline development and modernization for other jurisdictions.     

A paradigm for ecological risk assessment

The 1983 National Academy of Sciences paradigm for conducting human health risk assessment is considered with respect to ecological risk assessment. This four-step paradigm fails to capture key intrinsic differences between the two types of analysis, specifically: identity of risk targets and receptors; identity of the appropriate level of ecological organization at which the risk is expressed; variability of endpoint with respect to risk receptor; and the existence ofrisk cascades through ecological feedback loops. We propose an alternative paradigm that includes a preliminary step,receptor identification, in which chemical partitioning is combined with a conceptual model of the ecosystem to identify appropriate risk targets. In addition, we propose formal inclusion ofendpoint identification and explicit consideration of risk cascades in arelationship assessment in which interactive feedback loops are considered in an iterative process. The proposed paradigm preserves the steps of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment (renamedresponse assessment) and risk characterization, although specific modifications are recommended.     

Diagnostic variables as predictors of ecological risk

The state of an ecosystem may be represented by a multidemensional state vector,x. The goal of ecosystem management is to insure that the ecosystem remains within some setX of acceptable states, such thatx X. Since ecosystem management decisions must be based on limited knowledge, a small number of diagnostic variables must be found which accurately reflect ecosystem state. If the vector of diagnostic variables, , is found to be within a specified set , the state vectorx is predicted to be withinX. The selection and use of such diagnostic variables is examined in the context of an aquatic ecosystem simulation model. Techniques used in searching for diagnostic criteria include multiple linear regression, discriminant analysis, and visual inspection of graphical data displays. The adequacy of a diagnostic criterion as a predictor of ecological risk is demonstrated to be a function of the associated rates of type I and type II statistical errors. A simple cost-benefit analysis is undertaken to illustrate one approach for choosing an optimal balance between these error rates.     

Drinking water risk assessment in practice: the case of Swedish drinking water producers at risk from floods

To achieve a safe and reliable drinking water supply, water producers need to manage a large range of risks regarding both water quality and quantity. A risk management approach where risks are systematically identified and handled in a preventive manner is promoted by the World Health Organization and supported by researchers and drinking water experts worldwide. Risk assessment is an important part of such a management approach, and a variety of tools for risk assessment are described in the literature. There is, however, little knowledge of how drinking water risk assessment is performed in practice, including which tools that are actually used. This study investigates the use of risk assessment tools, and the approach to risk management, on a local level in the Swedish water sector. It is based on interviews with key persons from a targeted selection of water producers. We find that the application of tools as well as the approach to risk assessment and management differs considerably between the water producers. The tools most frequently used are mainly the ones promoted or required by Swedish national organizations. Although many of the water producers have done some kind of risk assessment, most have not implemented a risk management approach. Furthermore, their knowledge of the concepts of risk and risk management is often limited. The largest challenge identified is to prioritize risk assessment, so that it is actually performed and then used as a basis for managing risk in a systematic way.     

Cardiovascular risk under electromagnetic exposure in physiotherapy

The aim of the study was to assess the long-term effects of electromagnetic radiation (EMR) on cardiovascular system of medical staff in physiotherapy. A number of 52 exposed subjects (4 male and 48 female; aged 47.3 ± 8.7 years), and a control group of 52 subjects, matched by sex and age, with similar job characteristics without EMR exposure were studied. The EMR exposure from devices emitting at 50 Hz, 150 kHz, 27.12 MHz, 2.45 GHz, and optical radiation was assessed. The relative values of EMR for the whole frequency range in each physiotherapy were calculated and the obtained quota was much larger than 1. The workload and psychosocial factors were evaluated, too. The cardiovascular risk factors arterial pressure, lipid profile, body mass index, waist/hip ratio, smoking, alcohol consumption, nutrition, family history of cardiovascular disease were studied. The incidence of hypertension was moderate with the studied physiotherapists (26.9% v.s. 23.8% control group). The total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were significantly higher in the exposed group. The odds ratios indicate higher possibility of becoming dyslipidemic for the exposed to EMR subjects [for TC OR (95% CI) = 1.570 (1.048–2.351) and for LDL-C OR (95% CI) = 1.840 (1.158–2.924)]. In conclusion, our data show that the EMR exposure of the medical staff in physiotherapy could be associated with the adverse effects on cardiovascular system.     

浅谈化学污染事故环境风险管理

通过了解国内外化学污染事故的现状,分析了化学污染事故的严重性及其特征,结合我国现有的环境风险管理状况,探讨了化学污染事故环境风险管理的途径。     

Implementing the European flood risk management plan

In response to the extreme flood events of recent decades, the European Union has released the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), which requires the creation of flood risk management plans. These plans do not yet exist in practice, as water management agencies have until 2015 to put them into action. This contribution will discuss two questions regarding the European flood risk management plan: First, how is the new instrument integrated into the various member states, particularly with respect to the scenario approach? Second, how prepared are the institutions for the collaborative planning paradigm of the flood risk management plan, particularly with respect to the river basin districts approach? Citing examples from France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Great Britain, this paper offers both a pessimistic and an optimistic perspective on the implementation of the new flood risk management instrument.