Age and spatial distribution of the world's oldest trees

Extremely old trees have important roles in providing insights about historical climatic events and supporting cultural values, yet there has been limited work on their global distribution and conservation. We extracted information on 197,855 tree cores from 4854 sites and combined it with other tree age (e.g., the OLDLIST) data from a further 156 sites to determine the age of the world's oldest trees and quantify the factors influencing their global distribution. We found that extremely old trees >1000 years were rare. Among 30 individual trees that exceeded 2000 years old, 27 occurred in high mountains. We modeled maximum tree age with climatic, soil topographic, and anthropogenic variables, and our regression models demonstrated that elevation, human population density, soil carbon content, and mean annual temperature were key determinants of the distribution of the world's oldest trees. Specifically, our model predicted that many of the oldest trees will occur in high-elevation, cold, and arid mountains with limited human disturbance. This pattern was markedly different from that of the tallest trees, which were more likely to occur in relatively more mesic and productive locations. Global warming and expansion of human activities may induce rapid population declines of extremely old trees. New strategies, including targeted establishment of conservation reserves in remote regions, especially those in western parts of China and the United States, are required to protect these trees.     

Boosted trees for ecological modeling and prediction

Accurate prediction and explanation are fundamental objectives of statistical analysis, yet they seldom coincide. Boosted trees are a statistical learning method that attains both of these objectives for regression and classification analyses. They can deal with many types of response variables (numeric, categorical, and censored), loss functions (Gaussian, binomial, Poisson, and robust), and predictors (numeric, categorical). Interactions between predictors can also be quantified and visualized. The theory underpinning boosted trees is presented, together with interpretive techniques. A new form of boosted trees, namely, "aggregated boosted trees" (ABT), is proposed and, in a simulation study, is shown to reduce prediction error relative to boosted trees. A regression data set is analyzed using ABT to illustrate the technique and to compare it with other methods, including boosted trees, bagged trees, random forests, and generalized additive models. A software package for ABT analysis using the R software environment is included in the Appendices together with worked examples.     

Planting History and Propagule Pressure as Predictors of Invasion by Woody Species in a Temperate Region

Abstract:  We studied 28 alien tree species currently planted for forestry purposes in the Czech Republic to determine the probability of their escape from cultivation and naturalization. Indicators of propagule pressure (number of administrative units in which a species is planted and total planting area) and time of introduction into cultivation were used as explanatory variables in multiple regression models. Fourteen species escaped from cultivation, and 39% of the variance was explained by the number of planting units and the time of introduction, the latter being more important. Species introduced early had a higher probability of escape than those introduced later, with more than 95% probability of escape for those introduced before 1801 and <5% for those introduced after 1892. Probability of naturalization was more difficult to predict, and eight species were misclassified. A model omitting two species with the largest influence on the model yielded similar predictors of naturalization as did the probability of escape. Both phases of invasion therefore appear to be driven by planting and introduction history in a similar way. Our results demonstrate the importance of forestry for recruitment of invasive trees. Six alien forestry trees, classified as invasive in the Czech Republic, are currently reported in nature reserves. In addition, forestry authorities want to increase the diversity of alien species and planting area in the country.     

Renewable Resources in an Overlapping Generations Economy Without Capital

We incorporate a renewable resource into an overlapping generations model without capital and with quasi-linear preferences. Besides being an input for production the resource serves as a store of value. We characterize the dynamics, efficiency, and stability of the steady-state equilibria. The stability properties are sensitive to the type of resource growth. For constant growth there is only one steady-state equilibrium which is stable and efficient. In the general case of the concave growth function, there are usually at least two steady-state equilibria, one of which is stable and the other one unstable. The unstable steady state is efficient, but the stable one may or may not be. We study the robustness of our results by assuming a logarithmic utility function. We show that for the Cobb–Douglas production function the steady state is unique and stable regardless of whether the equilibrium is efficient or inefficient. Our analytical results are illustrated by numerical calculations.     

Effects of pollution on hormone content of ornamental trees

Elm and black locust samples were collected in the city of Thessaloniki, Greece from a number of locations with different pollutant concentrations and the hormonal content was determined using radioimmunoassay tests. In both tree species, a considerable decrease in endogenous cytokinins was detected in symptomless leaves from the polluted city center, suggesting latent senescence and thus latent injury. Similarly, cytokinin content was found to be lower in seedlings exposed to SO₂‐O₃ fumigation than in controls. Thus cytokinin levels may serve as useful indicators of the onset of pollution stress and/or of the degree of stress experienced by urban trees.

Several environmental stresses were reported to promote an ABA increase. An increased ABA content in black locust samples from the polluted city center was also detected. This observation did not hold in elm, where comparable ABA levels were detected in trees in the city center, the suburbs, and in controls grown in filtered air. Hence ABA content cannot serve as an unequivocal indicator of pollution‐induced latent plant senescence.     

Learning habitat models for the diatom community in Lake Prespa

Habitat suitability modelling studies the influence of abiotic factors on the abundance or diversity of a given taxonomic group of organisms. In this work, we investigate the effect of the environmental conditions of Lake Prespa (Republic of Macedonia) on diatom communities. The data contain measurements of physical and chemical properties of the environment as well as the relative abundances of 116 diatom taxa. In addition, we create a separate dataset that contains information only about the top 10 most abundant diatoms. We use two machine learning techniques to model the data: regression trees and multi-target regression trees. We learn a regression tree for each taxon separately (from the top 10 most abundant) to identify the environmental conditions that influence the abundance of the given diatom taxon. We learn two multi-target regression trees: one for modelling the complete community and the other for the top 10 most abundant diatoms. The multi-target regression trees approach is able to detect the conditions that affect the structure of a diatom community (as compared to other approaches that can model only a single target variable). We interpret and compare the obtained models. The models present knowledge about the influence of metallic ions and nutrients on the structure of the diatom community, which is consistent with, but further extends existing expert knowledge.     

Incorporating Social and Cultural Significance of Large Old Trees in Conservation Policy

In addition to providing key ecological functions, large old trees are a part of a social realm and as such provide numerous social‐cultural benefits to people. However, their social and cultural values are often neglected when designing conservation policies and management guidelines. We believe that awareness of large old trees as a part of human identity and cultural heritage is essential when addressing the issue of their decline worldwide. Large old trees provide humans with aesthetic, symbolic, religious, and historic values, as well as concrete tangible benefits, such as leaves, branches, or nuts. In many cultures particularly large trees are treated with reverence. Also, contemporary popular culture utilizes the image of trees as sentient beings and builds on the ancient myths that attribute great powers to large trees. Although the social and cultural role of large old trees is usually not taken into account in conservation, accounting for human‐related values of these trees is an important part of conservation policy because it may strengthen conservation by highlighting the potential synergies in protecting ecological and social values. Incorporación del Significado Social y Cultural de Árboles Añejos a Políticas de Conservación     

Predicting tree species presence and basal area in Utah: A comparison of stochastic gradient boosting,generalized additive models,and tree-based methods

Many efforts are underway to produce broad-scale forest attribute maps by modelling forest class and structure variables collected in forest inventories as functions of satellite-based and biophysical information. Typically, variants of classification and regression trees implemented in Rulequest's^© See5 and Cubist (for binary and continuous responses, respectively) are the tools of choice in many of these applications. These tools are widely used in large remote sensing applications, but are not easily interpretable, do not have ties with survey estimation methods, and use proprietary unpublished algorithms. Consequently, three alternative modelling techniques were compared for mapping presence and basal area of 13 species located in the mountain ranges of Utah, USA. The modelling techniques compared included the widely used See5/Cubist, generalized additive models (GAMs), and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB). Model performance was evaluated using independent test data sets. Evaluation criteria for mapping species presence included specificity, sensitivity, Kappa, and area under the curve (AUC). Evaluation criteria for the continuous basal area variables included correlation and relative mean squared error. For predicting species presence (setting thresholds to maximize Kappa), SGB had higher values for the majority of the species for specificity and Kappa, while GAMs had higher values for the majority of the species for sensitivity. In evaluating resultant AUC values, GAM and/or SGB models had significantly better results than the See5 models where significant differences could be detected between models. For nine out of 13 species, basal area prediction results for all modelling techniques were poor (correlations less than 0.5 and relative mean squared errors greater than 0.8), but SGB provided the most stable predictions in these instances. SGB and Cubist performed equally well for modelling basal area for three species with moderate prediction success, while all three modelling tools produced comparably good predictions (correlation of 0.68 and relative mean squared error of 0.56) for one species.     

The Future of Scattered Trees in Agricultural Landscapes

Abstract: Mature trees scattered throughout agricultural landscapes are critical habitat for some biota and provide a range of ecosystem services. These trees are declining in intensively managed agricultural landscapes globally. We developed a simulation model to predict the rates at which these trees are declining, identified the key variables that can be manipulated to mitigate this decline, and compared alternative management proposals. We used the initial numbers of trees in the stand, the predicted ages of these trees, their rate of growth, the number of recruits established, the frequency of recruitment, and the rate of tree mortality to simulate the dynamics of scattered trees in agricultural landscapes. We applied this simulation model to case studies from Spain, United States, Australia, and Costa Rica. We predicted that mature trees would be lost from these landscapes in 90–180 years under current management. Existing management recommendations for these landscapes—which focus on increasing recruitment—would not reverse this trend. The loss of scattered mature trees was most sensitive to tree mortality, stand age, number of recruits, and frequency of recruitment. We predicted that perpetuating mature trees in agricultural landscapes at or above existing densities requires a strategy that keeps mortality among established trees below around 0.5% per year, recruits new trees at a rate that is higher than the number of existing trees, and recruits new trees at a frequency in years equivalent to around 15% of the maximum life expectancy of trees. Numbers of mature trees in landscapes represented by the case studies will decline before they increase, even if strategies of this type are implemented immediately. This decline will be greater if a management response is delayed.     

A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land‐management and land‐use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert‐evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers’ evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data‐driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real‐world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem.     

Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states

Savannas are known as ecosystems with tree cover below climate-defined equilibrium values. However, a predictive framework for understanding constraints on tree cover is lacking. We present (a) a spatially extensive analysis of tree cover and fire distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, and (b) a model, based on empirical results, demonstrating that savanna and forest may be alternative stable states in parts of Africa, with implications for understanding savanna distributions. Tree cover does not increase continuously with rainfall, but rather is constrained to low (<50%, "savanna") or high tree cover (>75%, "forest"). Intermediate tree cover rarely occurs. Fire, which prevents trees from establishing, differentiates high and low tree cover, especially in areas with rainfall between 1000 mm and 2000 mm. Fire is less important at low rainfall (<1000 mm), where rainfall limits tree cover, and at high rainfall (>2000 mm), where fire is rare. This pattern suggests that complex interactions between climate and disturbance produce emergent alternative states in tree cover. The relationship between tree cover and fire was incorporated into a dynamic model including grass, savanna tree saplings, and savanna trees. Only recruitment from sapling to adult tree varied depending on the amount of grass in the system. Based on our empirical analysis and previous work, fires spread only at tree cover of 40% or less, producing a sigmoidal fire probability distribution as a function of grass cover and therefore a sigmoidal sapling to tree recruitment function. This model demonstrates that, given relatively conservative and empirically supported assumptions about the establishment of trees in savannas, alternative stable states for the same set of environmental conditions (i.e., model parameters) are possible via a fire feedback mechanism. Integrating alternative stable state dynamics into models of biome distributions could improve our ability to predict changes in biome distributions and in carbon storage under climate and global change scenarios.     

On the estimation of overwater buoyancy length from routine measurements

The stability parameter (z/L, where z is the height and L the buoyancy length) is an essential parameter in atmospheric boundary layer studies. From routine measurements, the bulk Richardson number (R_b) is usually computed. On the basis of appropriate field measurements at sea, it is shown that z/L = A R_b where A = 10.2 (with R ² = 0.97) for unstable and 6.3 (with R ² = 0.97) for stable conditions, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the proposed simplified equations are in excellent agreement with those more complicated formulations.     

Naturalistic hotspots along the Itinerarium Rosaliae (CW Sicily,Italy)

The conservation, fruition and management of landscape and natural resources is one of the most important topic of the moment. Here we presented a study on naturalistic hotspots that can be found along the Itinerarium Rosaliae, a naturalistic and religious route in Sicily that crosses three natural reserves and one natural regional park connecting Mount Pellegrino with the Hermitage of Santo Stefano di Quisquina. On the whole 7 semi-natural woods, 13 monumental trees, 8 geosites, and 4 areas of high naturalistic interest were identified. This initiative can be of example for other territories where human and natural heritage can be connected for an organic network of fruition.     

行道树对城市道路交通环境的响应研究

以南方常见的8种城市行道树作为研究对象,并以各自在远离城市道路交通环境生长的树种作为对照,对行道树及其对照样品叶片和树皮的重金属铅和镉、电导率、pH值、叶片伤斑率及叶片表皮结构气孔数等进行测定,以探讨不同树种对交通环境的响应.结果表明,与对照树种比较,行道树叶片和树皮能累积城市道路交通环境中的重金属铅和镉,其电导率和叶片的伤斑率增加,pH值下降.叶片气孔数的变化随树种不同有所差别,如阴香〔Cinnamomumbur-manii(Nees)〕等的叶片气孔数比对照少,而细叶榕(FicusmicrocarpaL.)等比对照多.根据行道树的生长状况及净化重金属的能力,8种供试植物中,白兰(MicheliaalbaDC.)和垂叶榕(FicusbenjaminaL.)最适合选作行道树,而阴香因其在交通环境中生长不良,净化效益差,不宜选作交通密集区的行道树种.图3表3参17     

Fourier analysis of the roll-up and merging of coherent structures in shallow mixing layers

The current study investigates the role of nonlinearity in the development of two-dimensional coherent structures (2DCS) in shallow mixing layers. A nonlinear numerical model based on the depth-averaged shallow water equations is used to investigate temporal shallow mixing layers, where the mapping from temporal to spatial results is made using the velocity at the center of the mixing layer. The flow is periodic in the stream-wise direction and the transmissive boundary conditions are used in the cross-stream boundaries to prevent reflections. The numerical results are examined with the aid of Fourier decomposition. Results show that the previous success in applying local linear theory to shallow mixing layers does not imply that the flow is truly linear. Linear stability theory is confirmed to be only valid within a short distance from the inflow boundary. Downstream of this linear region, nonlinearity becomes important for the roll-up and merging of 2DCS. While the energy required for the merging of 2DCS is still largely provided by the velocity shear, the merging mechanism is one where nonlinear mode interaction changes the velocity field of the subharmonic mode and the gradient of the along-stream velocity profile which, in turn, changes the magnitude of the energy production of the subharmonic mode by the velocity shear implicitly. The nonlinear mode interaction is associated with energy up-scaling and is consistent with the inverse energy cascade which is expected to occur in shallow shear flows. Current results also show that such implicit nonlinear interaction is sensitive to the phase angle difference between the most unstable mode and its subharmonic. The bed friction effect on the 2DCS is relatively small initially and grows in tandem with the size of the 2DCS. The bed friction also causes a decrease in the velocity gradient as the flow develops downstream. The transition from unstable to stable flow occurs when the bed friction balances the energy production. Beyond this point, the bed friction is more dominant and the 2DCS are progressively damped and eventually get annihilated. The energy production by the velocity shear plays an important role from the upstream end all the way to the point of transition to stable flow. The fact that linear stability theory is valid only for a short distance from the inflow boundary suggests that some elements of nonlinearity is incorporated in the mean velocity profile in experiments by the averaging process. The implicit nature of nonlinear interaction in shallow mixing layers and the sensitivity of the nonlinear interaction to phase angle difference between the most unstable mode and its subharmonic allows local linear theory to be successful in reproducing features of the instability such as the dominant mode of the 2DCS and its amplitude.     

Stability of eelgrass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera marina</Emphasis> L.) depth limits: influence of habitat type

Seagrass meadows are generally considered stable although few studies have specified and tested this statement. On the basis of a large monitoring dataset from Danish coastal waters, we aimed to test whether the stability of deep eelgrass populations changes along a eutrophication gradient extending from inner bays over outer bays to open coastal waters. We defined stability in terms of the stability properties of constancy, resilience, and/or persistence. Our data allowed us to investigate the stability property constancy expressed as temporal variability in eelgrass depth limits over a time scale of 10 years. We hypothesised that colonisation depths were large and relatively constant along open coasts because of low and relatively constant levels of nutrients and turbidity. Conversely, colonisation depths were hypothesised to be low and variable in protected bays due to higher and more variable levels of nutrients and turbidity. We found that depth limits increased from inner bays towards open coastal waters, matching declines in nutrient concentration and increases in water clarity and oxygen concentration. Stability expressed as constancy of depth limits did not differ significantly between habitat types, and neither did stability of physicochemical variables. However, when data from all habitat types were analysed together, they showed that eelgrass populations at the depth limit were significantly more constant and thus, in this respect, more stable when occurring in deep waters as compared to shallow waters. Areas of good water quality may thus obtain the double benefit of deeper-growing and more stable eelgrass populations. The most likely reason why this pattern did not appear at habitat-type level is that the habitat types studied represented wide spatial variation in water quality and depth limit. We conclude that the question of whether eelgrass populations are stable depends on the stability property and the ecological situation in question. Populations may be considered unstable in terms of inter-annual variation but stable in terms of long-term persistence. Therefore, the common statement that eelgrass populations are stable is not universally true.Communicated by M. Kühl, Helsingør     

Disturbance-Response Analysis: a Method for Rapid Assessment of the Threat to Species in Disturbed Areas

Abstract:  We developed a method with which to analyze a specie's response to chronic anthropogenic disturbance (CAD). We regressed density of individuals on the intensity of 3 disturbance agents (human activities, raising livestock, and land degradation) along CAD gradients to determine how much CAD is experienced by a species; whether species are ruderal (achieving maximum densities in disturbed sites); whether density declines as a result of CAD; which disturbance agents are responsible for this reduction; and the number of populations that decline as a result of CAD. We tested the method on 9 threatened Mammillaria species (Cactaceae). Seven species were ruderal. In 4 species, actual disturbance surpassed the CAD intensity in which plants achieved their maximum densities; thus, the density of those 4 species appeared to be declining. For 7 species, some populations were threatened by human activities or livestock, whereas others were favored by them. Land degradation negatively affected all species. Our results allowed us to distinguish 4 groups of species that had similar responses and thus may require different forms of management. Our method provided an estimation of the growth rate (λ) of the studied populations that was significantly correlated with λs obtained from demographic studies. The size structures of populations were consistent with the predictions of the analysis, which suggests our results are consistent and reliable. Disturbance–response analysis provides a basis for management in heavily populated areas, where conservation must be achieved along with development activities that cause CAD. The method provides readily interpretable information, which facilitates participative decision making; the data are rapidly generated, which makes it appropriate when results are required promptly or for assessment of large numbers of species; and it provides a comprehensive perception of how threatened species behave in the real world.     

Modeling freshwater fish distributions using multiscale landscape data: A case study of six narrow range endemics

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become integral tools in scientific research and conservation planning. Despite progress in the assessment of various statistical models for use in SDMs, little has been done in way of evaluating appropriate ecological models. In this paper, we evaluate the multiscale filter framework as a suitable theoretical model for predicting freshwater fish distributions in the upper Green River system (Ohio River drainage), USA. The spatial distributions of six fishes with contrasting biogeographies were modeled using boosted regression trees and multiscale landscape data. Species biogeography did not appear to affect predictive performance and all models performed well statistically with receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.87 to 0.98. Predictive maps show accurate estimations of ranges for five of six species based on historical collections. The relative influence of each type of environmental feature and spatial scale varied markedly with between species. A hierarchical effect was detected for narrowly distributed species. These species were highly influenced by soil composition at larger spatial scales and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns at more proximal scales. Conversely, LULC pattern was the most influential feature for widely distributed at all spatial scales. Using multiscale data capable of capturing hierarchical landscape influences allowed production of accurate predictive models and provided further insight into factors controlling freshwater fish distributions.     

铜、锌对3种常见乔木抗氧化指标的复合影响

为了解不同浓度铜（Cu）、锌（Zn）重金属污染土壤对乔木抗氧化指标的影响以及为植物修复蠡河重金属污染岸带提供理论依据,选取广玉兰（Magnoliagrandiflora）、香樟（Cinnamomumcamphora）、榉树（Zelkovaschneideriana）幼苗,采用土培法浇灌重金属溶液模拟土壤污染环境,研究不同浓度重金属Cu／Zn对乔木脯氨酸含量、过氧化物酶活性、过氧化氢酶活性及丙二醛含量的单一及复合影响。实验表明,单一Cu胁迫对广玉兰、香樟和榉树的毒害作用较单一,Zn胁迫严重;Cu／Zn复合作用下,3种乔木抗氧化指标均在Cu15和Zn110时达到最大值,表现出较强的抗性,而后随着复合作用强度增加,重金属对其毒害作用增大;75μg／gCu和210μg／gZn单一及复合胁迫时,广玉兰丙二醛含量相对香樟和榉树较接近对照值,过氧化物酶和过氧化氢酶活性较大,脯氨酸含量差别不大。综合分析,不同乔木在不同浓度重金属胁迫下抗氧化指标作出不同响应,广玉兰对高浓度Cu／Zn胁迫不敏感,承受能力和抗性较强,适合于修复Cu／Zn污染较严重土壤。     

Ecological Trap for Desert Lizards Caused by Anthropogenic Changes in Habitat Structure that Favor Predator Activity

Abstract: Anthropogenic habitat perturbation is a major cause of population decline. A standard practice managers use to protect populations is to leave portions of natural habitat intact. We describe a case study in which, despite the use of this practice, the critically endangered lizard Acanthodactylus beershebensis was locally extirpated from both manipulated and natural patches within a mosaic landscape of an afforestation project. We hypothesized that increased structural complexity in planted patches favors avian predator activity and makes these patches less suitable for lizards due to a heightened risk of predation. Spatial rarity of natural perches (e.g., trees) in arid scrublands may hinder the ability of desert lizards to associate perches with low‐quality habitat, turning planted patches into ecological traps for such species. We erected artificial trees in a structurally simple arid habitat (similar to the way trees were planted in the afforestation project) and compared lizard population dynamics in plots with these structures and without. Survival of lizards in the plots with artificial trees was lower than survival in plots without artificial trees. Hatchlings dispersed into plots with artificial trees in a manner that indicated they perceived the quality of these plots as similar to the surrounding, unmanipulated landscape. Our results showed that local anthropogenic changes in habitat structure that seem relatively harmless may have a considerable negative effect beyond the immediate area of the perturbation because the disturbed habitat may become an ecological trap.