Influence of host migration between woodland and pasture on the population dynamics of the tick Ixodes ricinus: A modelling approach

Ticks act as vectors of pathogens that can be harmful to animals and/or humans. Epidemiological models can be useful tools to investigate the potential effects of control strategies on diseases such as tick-borne diseases. The modelling of tick population dynamics is a prerequisite to simulating tick-borne diseases and the corresponding spread of the pathogen. We have developed a dynamic model to simulate changes in tick density at different stages (egg, larva, nymph and adult) under the influence of temperature. We have focused on the tick Ixodes ricinus, which is widespread in Europe. The main processes governing the biological cycles of ticks were taken into account: egg laying, hatching, development, host (small, mainly rodents, or large, like deer and cattle, mammals) questing, feeding and mortality. This model was first applied to a homogeneous habitat, where simulations showed the ability of the model to reproduce the general patterns of tick population dynamics. We considered thereafter a multi-habitat model, where three different habitats (woodland, ecotone and meadow) were connected through host migration. Based on this second application, it appears that migration from woodland, via the ecotone, is necessary to sustain the presence of ticks in the meadow. Woodland can therefore be considered as a source of ticks for the meadow, which in turn can be regarded as a sink. The influence of woodland on surrounding tick densities increases in line with the area of this habitat before reaching a plateau. A sensitivity analysis to parameter values was carried out and demonstrated that demographic parameters (sex ratio, development, mortality during feeding and questing, host finding) played a crucial role in the determination of questing nymph densities. This type of modelling approach provides insight into the influence of spatial heterogeneity on tick population dynamics.     

Allowing macroalgae growth forms to emerge: Use of an agent-based model to understand the growth and spread of macroalgae in Florida coral reefs,with emphasis on Halimeda tuna

The growth patterns of macroalgae in three-dimensional space can provide important information regarding the environments in which they live, and insights into changes that may occur when those environments change due to anthropogenic and/or natural causes. To decipher these patterns and their attendant mechanisms and influencing factors, a spatially explicit model has been developed. The model SPREAD (SPatially-explicit Reef Algae Dynamics), which incorporates the key morphogenetic characteristics of clonality and morphological plasticity, is used to investigate the influences of light, temperature, nutrients and disturbance on the growth and spatial occupancy of dominant macroalgae in the Florida Reef Tract. The model species, Halimeda and Dictyota spp., are modular organisms, with an “individual” being made up of repeating structures. These species can also propagate asexually through clonal fragmentation. These traits lead to potentially indefinite growth and plastic morphology that can respond to environmental conditions in various ways. The growth of an individual is modeled as the iteration of discrete macroalgal modules whose dynamics are affected by the light, temperature, and nutrient regimes. Fragmentation is included as a source of asexual reproduction and/or mortality. Model outputs are the same metrics that are obtained in the field, thus allowing for easy comparison. The performance of SPREAD was tested through sensitivity analysis and comparison with independent field data from four study sites in the Florida Reef Tract. Halimeda tuna was selected for initial model comparisons because the relatively untangled growth form permits detailed characterization in the field. Differences in the growth patterns of H. tuna were observed among these reefs. SPREAD was able to closely reproduce these variations, and indicate the potential importance of light and nutrient variations in producing these patterns.     

Losers in the ‘Rock-Paper-Scissors’ game: The role of non-hierarchical competition and chaos as biodiversity sustaining agents in aquatic systems

Processes occurring within small areas (patch-scale) that influence species richness and spatial heterogeneity of larger areas (landscape-scale) have long been an interest of ecologists. This research focused on the role of patch-scale deterministic chaos arising in phytoplankton assemblages characteristic of “Rock-Paper-Scissors” population dynamics (i.e., competitively non-hierarchical). We employed a simple 2-patch model configuration with lateral mixing and through-flow, and tested the robustness of species richness at the scale of the landscape and spatial heterogeneity. Three different assemblages were used that in a dimensionless box model configuration exhibited chaotic behavior. Our results showed that when a spatial dimension was added to the model configuration, and when all species were shared between patches (i.e., no invading populations), chaos-induced species richness and spatial heterogeneity were quickly reduced with the onset of mixing. While assemblages in each patch were comprised of exactly the same species, they differed in their proportional population densities due to differing stages of succession and the incidence of alternative assemblage structures. Even at very low mixing rates (0.001 d⁻¹), which produced low passive migration rates (0.1% of the total biomass per day), the incidence of high richness and heterogeneity decreased by ∼80%. Interestingly, this sensitivity was not the same for the three assemblages tested. Declines in species richness and spatial heterogeneity associated with mixing were greater in assemblages comprised of competitively dissimilar species (based on the area occupied in the resource-tradeoff space defined by the R* model). The underlying mechanisms may involve the degree to which nutrient dynamics are altered with the arrival of immigrants. Our findings suggest that in partially to well-mixed aquatic systems, the roles of patch-scale non-hierarchical competition and chaos as factors maintaining species richness and spatial heterogeneity may be limited. However, in aquatic systems that experience periods of very low mixing, or even disconnection, non-hierarchical competition and chaos might indeed contribute significantly to biodiversity.