The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data

Statistical characterization of past fire regimes is important for both the ecology and management of fire-prone ecosystems. Survival analysis—or fire frequency analysis as it is often called in the fire literature—has increasingly been used over the last few decades to examine fire interval distributions. These distributions can be generated from a variety of sources (e.g., tree rings and stand age patterns), and analysis typically involves fitting the Weibull model. Given the widespread use of fire frequency analysis and the increasing availability of mapped fire history data, our goal has been to review and to examine some of the issues faced in applying these methods in a spatially explicit context. In particular, through a case study on the massive Cedar Fire in 2003 in southern California, we examine sensitivities of parameter estimates to the spatial resolution of sampling, point- and area-based methods for assigning sample values, current age surfaces versus historical intervals in generating distributions, and the inclusion of censored (i.e., incomplete) observations. Weibull parameter estimates were found to be roughly consistent with previous fire frequency analyses for shrublands (i.e., median age at burning of ~30–50 years and relatively low age dependency). Results indicate, however, that the inclusion or omission of censored observations can have a substantial effect on parameter estimates, far more than other decisions about specifics of sampling.

Simulation of a fire-sensitive ecological threshold: a case study of Ashe juniper on the Edwards Plateau of Texas, USA

A model was developed to represent the establishment of a fire-sensitive woody species from seeds and subsequent survival and growth through five size classes. Simulations accurately represent structural changes associated with increased density and cover of the fire-sensitive Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei, Buckholz) and provide substantial evidence for multiple steady states and ecological thresholds. Without fire, Ashe juniper increases and herbaceous biomass decreases at exponential rates until a dense-canopy woodland is formed after approximately 75 years. Maintenance of a grass-dominated community for 150 years requires cool-season fires at a return interval of less than 25 years. When initial cool-season fires are delayed or return intervals are increased, herbaceous biomass (fuel) decreases below a threshold and changes from grassland to woodland become irreversible. With warm-season fires, longer return intervals maintain grass dominance, and under extreme warm-season conditions even nearly closed-canopy stands can be opened with catastrophic wildfires.     

A pilot study of the relationship between multiple sclerosis and the physical environment in northwest Ireland

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurological disease of unknown origin, but it is thought likely to have an environmental component in addition to genetic predisposition. It appears common in areas with underlying radon-producing granites. Radon exposure before the age of 15 years is postulated as a contributory cause in genetically susceptible individuals. Pilot studies were undertaken, with results which indicate that radon exposure may be a factor, and that the hypothesis warrants further investigation.     

Environmental quality and its impact on the local economy: A case study from Dongguan,South China

Industries that pollute the environment developed in the early 1990s in Dongguan City, especially those in the middle and lower valley of the Dongjiang River (waterside area) have seriously affected water and air quality and hence have affected soil quality through polluted water irrigation and precipitation. Investigation of the economic growth and environmental pollution in the 32 township units in the City from 1990 to 2000 also reveals that environmental pollution has affected the history of the development of the towns or townships in the waterside region in the delta of the River Dongjiang, especially the towns near the river mouth, and has prevented their industry from upgrading and hence has slowed down their economic growth. The impact of environmental pollution on economic growth is most severe in the towns along the lower valley, or in down-wind regions. In contrast, economic development in the protected area of the upper valley of the waterside region indicates that environmental protection that strictly controls the discharge of pollutants does not restrict the development of the local economy.     

Livestock carrying capacity evaluation in an integrated farming system: A case study from the mid-hills of Nepal

The crop livestock integrated farming system practiced in hilly regions of developing countries largely depends on the ecosystem as a whole. More especifically, the livestock component of the farming system relies heavily on natural resources such as forest, grazing and agricultural land for the supply of feed and fodder. The importance of animals as agents of nutrient recycling, sources of rural energy in terms of draft power and fuel, as well as being major contributors to the farm economy, has resulted in an increased population of ruminants in these regions, creating a threat to the sustainability and productivity of these land resources. This paper is an attempt to evaluate the livestock carrying capacity of land resources and to formulate the optimum herd size compatible with the differently resourced farm categories within the sub-watershed region of the mid-hills in Nepal. Our analysis reveals that the livestock carrying capacity of the land resources at the watershed level is 11696 Livestock Units (LU), whereas current stocking is 12985 LU, suggesting an overstocking of 1289 LU at the watershed level. Total feed supply from different sources is 12668 mt/yr whereas current Total Digestive Nutrient (TDN) demand is 14060 mt/yr, a negative balance of 1393 mt/yr. The excess livestock at the sub-watershed level directly implies excess livestock holding, producing a poor nutritional status for the farm household. Linear programming analysis reveals that the farmers of large, medium and small category farms can optimize their livestock holding by a combination of 3 LU buffaloes and 4 LU goats, 2 LU buffaloes and 4 LU goats and 1 LU buffaloes and 4.4 LU goats, thus giving maximum return to the farm family without exerting pressure on fragile natural resources.     

An optimization approach for sustainable release of e-flows for lake restoration and preservation: Model development and a case study of Baiyangdian Lake, China

In this paper, we describe the development of a model for the sustainable release of e-flows from the regional water resource infrastructure (e.g., reservoirs, rivers with available water) for lake restoration and preservation, and use the model in a case study of Baiyangdian Lake, China. First, we define the sustainable environmental flows (e-flows), with an emphasis on the ecological importance of temporal variation in factors such as water level (depth). By analyzing historical data on the suitable range of water levels in the lake, we evaluated fluctuations using canonical correspondence analysis and frequency distribution analysis. The temporal variations required by the ecosystem of the lake were also assessed. Based on this approach, we developed an optimization model for sustainable release of e-flows. We used the adaptive genetic algorithm approach to solve the model and determine the required release of e-flows. Scenario analysis then provided a range of potential management strategies for the e-flows. The optimal results are helpful to the lake managers to establish sustainable e-flow release schemes for the lake restoration and preservation.     

Sustainable development and systems thinking: A case study of a heritage city

The concept of sustainable cities is based on a development paradigm that recognizes that cities make an important contribution to social and economic development. System thinking, including hard and soft systems, can be used to provide a new perspective and tools to resolve questions. The 500-year-old heritage city of Udaipur in India, which has traditionally maintained the spirit of living in a sustainable manner, is now seeking sustainable development. This paper attempts to analyse the issues underlying sustainable development of Udaipur by applying CATWOE in order to comprehend the systemic elements of the city from a soft systems perspective.     

Sustainable development and tourism destination management: A case study of the Lillehammer region,Norway

This paper reviews some of the literature and guidance provided for businesses considering responses to the environmental aspects and impacts of their tourist activities. It concentrates on the role of destinations and stakeholders within the destination cooperating and networking to improve environmental performance and on generating a ‘green’ image. In order to move towards a type of tourism consistent with sustainable development (sustainable tourism), it is argued that we need to see enhanced management of a destination, creating opportunities for networking and cooperation between, in particular, service providers. In a case study of Lillehammer, Norway, three projects negotiated, developed and delivered by service providers in the area are examined. These projects looked at hotel management, transport and aesthetics. Success factors are identified, including the involvement of stakeholders, the development of locally orientated codes of conduct, the role and participation of local authorities and the importance of leadership. Findings add to the body of practical help in moving destinations towards sustainable tourism.     

Comparison of sensitivity analysis techniques: A case study with the rice model WARM

The considerable complexity often included in biophysical models leads to the need of specifying a large number of parameters and inputs, which are available with various levels of uncertainty. Also, models may behave counter-intuitively, particularly when there are nonlinearities in multiple input-output relationships. Quantitative knowledge of the sensitivity of models to changes in their parameters is hence a prerequisite for operational use of models. This can be achieved using sensitivity analysis (SA) via methods which differ for specific characteristics, including computational resources required to perform the analysis. Running SA on biophysical models across several contexts requires flexible and computationally efficient SA approaches, which must be able to account also for possible interactions among parameters. A number of SA experiments were performed on a crop model for the simulation of rice growth (Water Accounting Rice Model, WARM) in Northern Italy. SAs were carried out using the Morris method, three regression-based methods (Latin hypercube sampling, random and Quasi-Random, LpTau), and two methods based on variance decomposition: Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (E-FAST) and Sobol’, with the latter adopted as benchmark. Aboveground biomass at physiological maturity was selected as reference output to facilitate the comparison of alternative SA methods. Rankings of crop parameters (from the most to the least relevant) were generated according to sensitivity experiments using different SA methods and alternate parameterizations for each method, and calculating the top-down coefficient of concordance (TDCC) as measure of agreement between rankings. With few exceptions, significant TDCC values were obtained both for different parameterizations within each method and for the comparison of each method to the Sobol’ one. The substantial stability observed in the rankings seem to indicate that, for a crop model of average complexity such as WARM, resource intensive SA methods could not be needed to identify most relevant parameters. In fact, the simplest among the SA methods used (i.e., Morris method) produced results comparable to those obtained by methods more computationally expensive.     

Climate change perspectives and adaptation strategies of business enterprises: a case study from Italy

The purpose of the paper is to present empirical evidence on how to develop climate-resilient business enterprises under the auspices of an industrial park management. This was facilitated through the collective mapping of climate adaptation strategies corresponding to the identified business risks exacerbated by climate events directly experienced in the shared territory. The cluster approach attempted to overcome the typical challenges of single business enterprises, mostly small and medium-sized enterprises, with respect to their lack of human and financial resources and scientific and technical knowledge to understand climate change risks. The prospects of facilitating knowledge-sharing and information exchange within a cluster of business enterprises give impetus to the replicability and transferability of the approach in other industrial areas and organizational contexts.     

Integrated shoreline management and tourism development on the cross-border World Heritage Site: A case study from the Curonian spit (Lithuania/Russia)

The varied and very dynamic landscape with a high biological diversity is a distinctive feature of the Curonian spit at the regional scale. Throughout the 20th century the main morphodynamic trend in the littoral of the Curonian spit was shoreline grading on the lagoon side, whereas on the marine side the increasing erosion at the foot of the spit, and increasing accretion at the head of the spit prevailed. The results of a discriminant analysis (Wilkes’ λ = 0.001626 and F = 29.267 when p < 0.001) show that sites with prevailing erosion, accretion and sediment input from the drifting dunes form regular inter-related spatial structures in the littoral with distinctive resulting discontinuities of the sediment drift along the lagoon coast. Dune littoral cells are characterized by Aeolian sediment input and distribution ‘down-drift’, (usually northwards) from the source. The most likely changes in the current development trends of the lagoon shore zone of the Curonian spit are related to expected climate changes and further slowing down of the dune drift. The probability of storms and ice-drift events, and their impact on coasts is expected to increase as a result of climate change. The dune advance will gradually slow down, and with it, the sand input to the coastal zone will decline. In this paper, we define integrated shoreline management as a system of long-term shoreline management measures, which is based on a littoral cell approach and aimed at harmonizing human activity in the coastal zone with the natural development of the shoreline. We propose an integrated management program for the lagoon shoreline of the Curonian spit, which is site-specific for each littoral cell as a coastal management unit. Drifting dunes and seaside beaches are the natural amenities, which are best known and best appreciated on the Curonian spit by 49% of the respondents representing the total Lithuanian population. A responsible tourism development should be considered as the key means for proper appreciation of the drifting dunes and natural coasts by society, which means to acknowledge and cherish the aesthetic and conservation values of dune and coastal landscapes of the Curonian spit as a World Heritage Site. There are at least two pre-conditions for this: (1) to provide visitors with sufficient information about diverse values and functions of the Curonian dunes and coasts within a broader regional and global heritage conservation context; (2) to enable tourists to enjoy the most impressive dune and coastal landscapes at close range. In this paper we propose to encourage active dune tourism, to reintroduce grazing into the Curonian dune areas, to restore and to preserve the most impressive landscapes of the highest white drifting dunes by bringing the blown out sand from the leeward foot of the dunes back to the crest artificially.     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

区域资源环境与社会经济系统的非连续运动分析——以吉林省为例

针对区域资源环境与社会经济系统的非连续运动特征,基于尖点突变理论构建数学模型对区域资源环境与社会经济系统的突变过程及其响应机制进行定量描述与分析。吉林省社会经济进入快速发展时期,以吉林省作为研究区域进行实例分析,能够为区域社会经济与资源环境协调发展战略的制定与筛选提供技术手段和决策依据。研究结果表明,吉林省经济进入快速增长阶段;矿业的衰退将成为影响吉林省经济持续稳定发展的重要因素;吉林省资源消耗总量与万元产值消耗量的突变,标志着吉林省对钢铁和水泥等大宗固体矿产的消费进入快速增长阶段;受生态省建设战略影响,固体废物、SO2、粉尘的排放总量与万元产值SO2及固体废弃物排放量发生根本性转变,吉林省生态环境进入新的发展时期。     

Dichloromethane emissions from automotive manufacturing industry in Iran: case study of the SAIPA automotive manufacturing company

The primary data about the role of automotive manufacturing industry in emitting dichloromethane (DCM) to the environment in Iran are provided by a case study of SAIPA Automotive Manufacturing Company in 2012. The average emission rate and emission factor of DCM in the stack exhaust air streams of the solvent-based automotive painting plant were 6.8 kg·d^?1 and 19.5 g per car, respectively. The spray booths had the highest portion (about 85%) of DCM emission in the stack exhaust air streams. The average concentration of DCM (± standard deviation) in the generated wastewater of the factory was 64 ± 12 μg·L^?1, but in the effluent of the factory wastewater treatment plant, it was reduced to a nondetectable level. DCM was also observed in three groundwater wells out of five monitored water resources. To control DCM emission and prevent pollution, the replacement of solvent-based paints with water-based paints is highly recommended.     

Water environmental planning and management at the watershed scale: A case study of Lake Qilu, China

Water environmental planning and management has become essential for guiding the water pollution control activities. Past water pollution control activities have been site specific, with little thought on water quality standard reaching at the watershed scale. Based on the watershed approach, a seven-step methodological framework for water environmental planning and management was developed. The framework was applied to water environmental planning and management of the Lake Qilu watershed in Yunnan Province, China. Results show that the reduction amount of total nitrogen (TN) under the plan is 1,205 tons per year so that the target of environmental capacity can be reached in 2020. Compared with traditional methods, the framework has its prevalence and could be generalized to analogous watersheds.     

现代城郊农业的功能定位及其评价研究——以北京市为例

现代城市郊区化趋势下的城郊农业功能发生了质的转变,由提供农副产品的单一性功能逐渐转变为多样性功能,为城乡一体化布局和城市功能互补发挥了独特的作用。剖析了现代城郊农业的功能定位问题,并从生产服务功能、生态保育功能、景观文化功能三个方面构建了评价指标体系。采取类比法评价了北京市城郊农业的功能特征,估算其总经济价值量约为1100亿元,其中生产服务功能占28%,生态保育功能占66%,景观文化功能占6%。在此基础上,提出了北京市城郊农业发展模式应以生产服务为基础,生态保育为重点,景观文化为特色,探讨了京郊农业可持续发展的相应对策。     

The sands of Forvie (Scotland): A case study in geomorphology and conservational management

The Sands of Forvie, National Nature Reserve, Scotland is a complex coastal sand dune system which is associated with the dynamic estuary of the River Ythan. The dune system has developed over more than 5000 years. The south partis a peninsula of dunes, sandhills, sand arcs, erosion and deflation surfaces. The north part is superimposed on a rock plateau with a cliff coastline. This plateau is covered in glacial deposits and is essentially an upland heath landscape. Some of the best examples of large active parabolic dunes in Britain are found in North Forvie. The sequence of geomorphic development is described. As a nature reserve with a rich ecology it has been managed for conservational purposes since 1960s. As such it is an excellent case study of how conservational management has changed to become more flexible and more aware of the importance of dynamic processes.     

The sands of Forvie (Scotland): A case study in geomorphology and conservational management

The Sands of Forvie, National Nature Reserve, Scotland is a complex coastal sand dune system which is associated with the dynamic estuary of the River Ythan. The dune system has developed over more than 5000 years. The south part is a peninsula of dunes, sand hills, sand arcs, erosion and deflation surfaces. The north part is superimposed on a rock plateau with a cliff coastline. This plateau is covered in glacial deposits and is essentially an upland heath landscape. Some of the best examples of large active parabolic dunes in Britain are found in North Forvie. The sequence of geomorphic development is described. As a nature reserve with a rich ecology it has been managed for conservational purposes since 1960s. As such it is an excellent case study of how conservational management has changed to become more flexible and more aware of the importance of dynamic processes.     

The role of echinoderms as bioindicators of seawater pollution: A case study from patraicos and corinthiacos Gulf,N. Peloponnesus,Greece

To determine the role of echinoderms as bioindicators of seawater pollution we collected sea‐water and urchin samples from two sites in N. Peloponnesus, Greece. One site was in Patraicos gulf (Patras) and was influenced by point source pollution (urban sewage outfalls) while the second was in Korinthiacos gulf (Akoli) with no evident habitat pollution.

Three heavy metals (copper, nickel and zinc) have been measured in the gonads of two edible species of echinoderms, Arbacia lixula and Paracentrotus lividus.

Statistical treatment of the results showed statistically significant differences in bioaccu‐mulation related to the dry‐weight of gonads, to species, to sex of echinoderms, to season of sampling and to sampling station.

The concentrations of zinc were higher than those of Ni and Cu at in both sampling sites.

Microbiological analysis showed that contamination of the urchins was correlated to that of the surrounding seawater.

Finally both sampling sites seems to be influenced, directly or indirectly, by heavy metal and bacterial habitat pollution.     

GIS与层次分析法相结合的生态环境综合评价研究——以渝西地区为例

将GIS与层次分析法相结合应用于渝西地区生态环境质量综合评价。首先,根据渝西地区生态环境的基本特点确定生态环境质量综合评价的指标体系和基本评价单元,通过层次分析法,确定各评价指标的权重,计算出每个评价单元的生态环境质量综合指数和分指数;然后运用GIS技术,根据每个评价单元的质量指数和分指数,自动生成渝西地区生态环境综合评价等级图;在此基础上,对渝西地区生态环境整体及各不同侧面质量状况的空间分异规律进行分析和研究。结果显示,渝西区生态环境质量基本上由南向北逐渐降低,与自然环境状况的空间格局大体吻合,但局部地区有差异。表明自然条件对渝西地区生态环境质量的空间分异起决定性作用,但社会经济和环境污染等因素同样对生态环境具有重要影响,在某些情况下,甚至可以成为决定因素,并在一定程度上改变生态环境的空间格局。