A numerical model of periodically forced circulation near the shore of a lake

Numerical calculations for a model of the near-shore circulation in a lake subject to two diurnal forcing mechanisms are presented. The first mechanism is a heating/cooling term in the heat equation representing the daytime heating and nighttime cooling of the diurnal cycle. The second is a periodic surface stress modelling a sea-breeze/gully wind system typical of some coastal regions. The two forcing mechanisms can either act together or against each other depending on their relative phase. The numerical solutions are compared with previously published analytical solutions and used to explore the extra dynamics associated with non-linear effects (specifically advection). The latter dynamics include the formation of gravity currents and unstable density profiles leading to secondary circulation.     

Role of the natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings on global warming: evidence from cointegration–VECM analysis

Over the last few years there has been much debate about the hypothesis that anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases increase global temperature permanently. By using recent advances in time series econometrics, this paper tries to answer the question on how human activity affects Earth’s surface temperatures. Bearing in mind this goal, we estimated the long-run cointegration relations between global temperatures and changes in radiative forcings by a set of perturbing factors. We found that the temperature response to a doubling in radiative forcing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is + 2.94 °C [95 % CI: + 1.91, + 3.97], in perfect accordance with prior research, and that the orthogonalized cumulated effect over a 100 year time period, in response to a unit increase of size of one standard deviation in greenhouse gas radiative forcing, is + 3.86 °C [95 % CI: + 0.03, + 6.54]. Conversely, the amplitude of solar irradiance variability is hardly sufficient to explain observed variations in the Earth’s climate. Our results show that the combined effect of stochastic trends attributable to anthropogenic radiative forcing variations are driving the Earth’s climate system toward an ongoing phase of global warming, and that such long-run movement is unlikely to be transient.     

中国东南部太阳辐射变化特征、影响因素及其对区域气候的影响

基于8个站点1961年以来的长期太阳辐射及其它气象观测数据,通过线性回归、相关分析等方法,探讨近半个世纪以来中国东南部太阳辐射的变化特征,并分析了太阳辐射变化的影响因素以及对区域气候的影响。结果表明：该地区地表总太阳辐射自1961年以来呈下降趋势,变化率为-10.17MJ·m-2·a-1。太阳辐射下降主要集中在1961到1990年间,该时间段的下降趋势达到-39.43MJ·m-2·a-1,主要表现为直接辐射显著下降,散射辐射则变化不大;1990年代以后,地表总太阳辐射开始呈现上升趋势,变化率为13.21MJ·m-2·a-1。该地区太阳辐射变化与全球范围内太阳辐射＂变暗＂及＂变亮＂的变化是一致的。从云量对太阳辐射的作用来看,该地区太阳辐射的变化很有可能是受到低云量变化的影响;而太阳辐射的这种变化直接导致气温发生变化,使得最高气温和最低气温的变化出现不一致,日较差随之发生改变。     

Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries

We test two hypotheses that are derived from the anthropogenic theory of climate change. The first postulates that a growing population and increasing economic activity increase anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases relative to natural sources and sinks, and this alters global biogeochemical cycles in a way that increases the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature. The second postulates that the increase in the persistence of radiative forcing transmits a stochastic trend to the time series for temperature. Results indicate that the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature changes from I(0) to I(1) during the last 500 years and that the I(1) fingerprint in radiative forcing can be detected in a statistically measureable fashion in surface temperature. As such, our results are consistent with the physical mechanisms that underlie the theory of anthropogenic climate change.     

Kinetic modelling of the pyrolysis of Miscanthus × Giganteus from the thermogravimetric analysis of its fractionated components

In this paper the thermal behaviour of Miscanthus × Giganteus (M×G) is studied by thermogravimetric analysis. In order to characterise the thermal behaviour of its cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin, the raw M×G material was treated sequentially by water, H₂SO₄ and KOH. The global kinetic parameters for each component were determined by subsequent modelling of the TG data with the Ozawa-Flynn-Wall method and multivariate non-linear regression. It is found that the global pyrolysis of M×G can be satisfactorily described using a six steps-kinetic scheme. The analytical method proposed here can be probably extended without too many efforts to other biomass products. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Matching the Multiple Scales of Conservation with the Multiple Scales of Climate Change

Abstract:  To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.     

Understanding Recent Climate Change

Abstract:  The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 °C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most .     

Adding complex trophic interactions to a size-spectral plankton model: Emergent diversity patterns and limits on predictability

A new model in the NPZ (nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton) style is presented, mechanistically simple but with 40 size classes each of phytoplankton (1-20 μm) and small zooplankton (2.1-460 μm), in order to resolve one level of trophic interactions in detail. General, empirical allometric relationships are used to parameterize both the optimal prey size and size selectivity for each grazer class, as is rarely done. This inclusion of complex predator-prey linkages and realistic prey preferences yields a system with an emergent pattern of phytoplankton diversity consistent with global ocean observations, i.e., a parabolic relationship between diversity (as measured by the Shannon evenness) and biomass. It also yields significant long-term time evolution, which places limits on the extent to which the community response to nutrient forcing can be predicted from forcing in a pragmatic sense. When a simple annual cycle in nutrient supply is repeated exactly for many years, transient fluctuations up to a factor of two in spring bloom magnitude persist for 10-20 years before a stable seasonal biomass cycle is achieved. When the amplitude of the nutrient-supply annual cycle is given a random interannual modulation, these long-lived transients add significant noise to a 100-year correlation between annual-mean nutrient supply and annual-mean biomass. This noise is 20% of total interannual variance in the model base case, and ranges from 0% to 40% depending on the grazer size selectivity. In general, unpredictability on the bloom timescale is damped when food-web complexity is increased by making grazers less selective, while unpredictability on the interannual scale shows the opposite pattern, increasing with increasing food-web complexity up to a high threshhold, past which community structure and biomass time evolution both suddenly simplify. These results suggests a new strategy for ensemble ecosystem forecasting and uncertainty estimation, analogous to methods common in circulation and climate modeling, in which internal variability (predator-prey interactions in the biological case; eddies and climate-system oscillations in the physical case) are resolved and quantified, rather than suppressed.     

Klimaänderung—Was weiß die Wissenschaft?

In the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), scientists worldwide are working on a holistic view of climate development. This accommodates highly complex interactions between natural occurrences, their effects and human activity as far as possible. Uncertainties are expressed in terms of confidence levels. The Third Assessment Report presents the following cases: Human activities have generally increased the atmospheric concentrations of green-house gases and their radiative forcings during the 20^th century. The resulting radiative forcing is positive (warming) with a small uncertainty range; that from the direct aerosol effects is negative (cooling) and smaller; whereas the negative forcing from the indirect effects of aerosols (clouds and water cycle) might be large but is not well quantified. An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming earth and other changes in the climate system. Observed changes in regional climate during the past 50 years have affected biological and hydrological systems in many parts of the world. There are preliminary indications that social and economic systems have also been affected. Local, regional and global environmental problems are often interlinked in ways that, in total, affect the sustainable satisfaction of human needs. The Projections of all SRES scenarios show an increase of the globally averaged surface temperature within the 21^st century at a rate which is very likely to be without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years, based on paleoclimate data. Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to complement climate change mitigation efforts. Together they can contribute to sustainable development objectives.     

Aktuelle Aerosoltrends an der GAW Globalstation Hohenpeißenberg und ihre Relevanz für Luftreinhaltung und Klima

Aim and Scope

This study was aimed at representing current aerosol trends measured at the GAW global station and their relevance for the present fine dust discussion and a possible impact on climate.

Results and Discussion

1) The intensive GAW measuring program at Hohenpeissenberg covers numerous parameters for the characterization of the physical, optical and chemical characteristics of the atmospheric aerosol. The time series of the number concentration of ultra fine particles with diameters of about 0.004 to 3 μm shows an increase of about 50% since 1995. 2) The introduction of soot particle filters would lower the dust mass only slightly since soot particles from diesel cars only about 8–10% contribute to the dust mass, but about 90% to the number concentration of particles. 3) The single scattering albedo (SSA) is a key parameter determining whether the existing aerosol mixture causes a cooling (negative radiative forcing) or a warming (positive radiative forcing) in the atmosphere. At Hohenpeißenberg the SSA changed from 0.85 to 0.91 in the time period 1999 to 2005, i.e. the regional aerosol as a whole is dominated by scattering rather than absorbing particles.

Conclusion and Perspective

From current aerosol trends at the GAW global station Hohenpeißenberg it was possible to analyze their relevance for air pollution control and possible influences on climate. Dust mass is not a suitable parameter for accessing the contribution of diesel engined vehicles. Measuring the number concentration of particles much more reflects the influence of diesel engined vehicles and also shows, as expected, an upward trend due to a strong increase of the fraction of diesel vehicles in comparison to the total number of cars. Aerosol particles scatter and absorb solar radiation and thus cause a cooling or warming in the atmosphere. Calculated values of the single scattering albedo at Hohenpeissenberg show, that in the initial years the aerosol did not diminish the temperature rise, but rather caused it to increase. Only a data comparison from a global network like GAW can demonstrate, if the results are even representative for the large scale situation.     

A heuristic approach to predicting water beetle diversity in temporary and fluctuating waters

An understanding of the causal mechanisms and processes that shape macroinvertebrate communities at a local scale has important implications for the management and conservation of freshwater biodiversity. Here we compare the performance of linear and non-linear statistics to explore diversity-environment relationships using data from 76 temporary and fluctuating ponds in two regions of southern England. We focus on aquatic beetle assemblages, which have been shown to be excellent surrogates of wider freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity. Ponds in the region contained a rich coleopteran fauna, totaling 68 species, which provided an excellent model system with which to compare the performance of two non-linear procedures (artificial neural networks—ANNs and generalised additive models—GAMs) and one more traditional linear approach (Multiple linear regression—MLR) to modelling diversity-environment relationships. Of all approaches employed, the best fit was obtained using an ANN model with only four input variables (conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth). This model accounted for 82% of the observed variability in Shannon diversity index across ponds. In contrast, the best GAM and MLR models only explained 50% and 14% of this variation, respectively. Contribution profile analysis of conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth, obtained from the best fit ANN through a hierarchical cluster analysis, allowed the identification of direct and proxy effects in relation to the environmental variables measured in this study. In each case, distinct clusters of ponds were identified in contribution profile analysis, suggesting that ponds across the two regions fall into a number of discrete groups, whose beetle faunas respond in subtly yet significantly different ways to key environmental variables. Aquatic coleopteran diversity in ponds in the two regions appears to be driven at a local scale by changes in relatively few physicochemical gradients, which are related to diversity in a clearly non-linear manner.     

Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model

Understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forests which hold about 7% of the global terrestrial biomass carbon is a major issue. An important mechanism in boreal tree species is acclimatization to seasonal variations in temperature (cold hardiness) to withstand low temperatures during winter. Temperature drops below the hardiness level may cause frost damage. Increased climate variability under global and regional warming might lead to more severe frost damage events, with consequences for tree individuals, populations and ecosystems. We assessed the potential future impacts of changing frost regimes on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) in Sweden. A cold hardiness and frost damage model were incorporated within a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS. The frost tolerance of Norway spruce was calculated based on daily mean temperature fluctuations, corresponding to time and temperature dependent chemical reactions and cellular adjustments. The severity of frost damage was calculated as a growth-reducing factor when the minimum temperature was below the frost tolerance. The hardiness model was linked to the ecosystem model by reducing needle biomass and thereby growth according to the calculated severity of frost damage. A sensitivity analysis of the hardiness model revealed that the severity of frost events was significantly altered by variations in the hardening rate and dehardening rate during current climate conditions. The modelled occurrence and intensity of frost events was related to observed crown defoliation, indicating that 6-12% of the needle loss could be attributed to frost damage. When driving the combined ecosystem-hardiness model with future climate from a regional climate model (RCM), the results suggest a decreasing number and strength of extreme frost events particularly in northern Sweden and strongly increasing productivity for Norway spruce by the end of the 21st century as a result of longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, according to the model, frost damage might decrease the potential productivity by as much as 25% early in the century.     

Modelling the long-term morphological evolution of the Clyde Estuary,Scotland, UK

The long-term morphodynamic response of the Clyde Estuary to any possible change in environmental forcing associated with global climate change and human interference is examined here using a model based on a systems approach. The model, which uses Boolean Algebra as its formal mathematical language, provides a qualitative insight into the long term morphodynamic behaviour of the estuarine system, at this level without the need for detailed and quantitative hydrodynamic and morphodynamic process knowledge or extensive data resources. The model predictions suggest that the long-term morphological changes in the Clyde Estuary largely depend on the fluvial flow of the River Clyde. Salt marshes in the upper reaches of the estuary were found to be the most vulnerable morphological feature of the estuary. In the event of increased river flow in the future, a likely situation according to climate change scenarios, saltmarshes will deplete or disappear altogether, irrespective of the sediment influx into the estuary. Changes to waves and tides will also contribute to the evolution by taking the estuary through significantly different intermediate morphological states whilst evolving towards a stable end state.     

Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient

We provide an empirical, global test of the varying constraints hypothesis, which predicts systematic heterogeneity in the relative importance of biomass resources to burn and atmospheric conditions suitable to burning (weather/climate) across a spatial gradient of long-term resource availability. Analyses were based on relationships between monthly global wildfire activity, soil moisture, and mid-tropospheric circulation data from 2001 to 2007, synthesized across a gradient of long-term averages in resources (net primary productivity), annual temperature, and terrestrial biome. We demonstrate support for the varying constraints hypothesis, showing that, while key biophysical factors must coincide for wildfires to occur, the relative influence of resources to burn and moisture/weather conditions on fire activity shows predictable spatial patterns. In areas where resources are always available for burning during the fire season, such as subtropical/tropical biomes with mid-high annual long-term net primary productivity, fuel moisture conditions exert their strongest constraint on fire activity. In areas where resources are more limiting or variable, such as deserts, xeric shrublands, or grasslands/savannas, fuel moisture has a diminished constraint on wildfire, and metrics indicating availability of burnable fuels produced during the antecedent wet growing seasons reflect a more pronounced constraint on wildfire. This macro-scaled evidence for spatially varying constraints provides a synthesis with studies performed at local and regional scales, enhances our understanding of fire as a global process, and indicates how sensitivity to future changes in temperature and precipitation may differ across the world.     

Connectivity Planning to Address Climate Change

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse‐filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present‐day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost–distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land‐use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land‐use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático     

Periodically driven circulation near the shore of a lake

Solutions are found for a linear model of the circulation near the shore of a lake that is subject to two diurnal forcing mechanisms. The first is the day/night heating/cooling induced horizontal pressure gradient. The second is an unsteady surface stress modelling a sea breeze/gully wind pattern. The two forcing mechanisms can oppose or reinforce each other depending on their relative phase. The interplay of different dynamic balances at different times and locations in the domain lead to complex circulation patterns especially during the period of flow reversal.     

A concept model to estimate the potential distribution of the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) in Australia under climate change—A means for assessing biosecurity risk

Increasing global temperatures as a result of climate change are widely considered inevitable for Australia. Despite this, the specific effects of climate change on Australian agriculture are little studied and the effects on agricultural pests and diseases are virtually unknown. In this paper we consider the impact of climate change on the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama [Hemiptera: Psyllidae]); one of two known vectors of huanglongbing (citrus greening); a debilitating disease which is caused in Asia by a phloem-limited bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (α-Proteobacteria). D. citri does not occur in Australia, but if introduced would pose a major threat to the viability of the Australian citrus industry and to native Citrus species. This paper presents an approach developed to understand how climate change may influence the behaviour, distribution and breeding potential of D. citri. Here we developed and describe an initial dynamic point model of D. citri biology in relation to its citrus host and applied it to a scenario of increasing temperatures, as indicators of climate change, on a continental scale. A comparison between model outputs for the three time frames considered (1990, 2030 and 2070) confirms that increasing temperatures projected under climate change will affect the timing and duration of new citrus growth (flush) necessary for psyllid development throughout Australia. Flushing will start progressively earlier as the temperature increases and be of shorter duration. There will also be a gradual southward expansion of shorter durations of the occurrence of flush. Increasing temperatures will impact on D. citri both directly through alteration of its temperature dependant development cycle and indirectly through the impact on the host flushing cycle. For the whole of Australia, a comparison between model outputs for the three scenarios considered indicates the seasonality of D. citri development will change to match changes in citrus flush initiation. Results indicate that the risk of establishment by D. citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures, mainly due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes of the host. However, the spatially heterogeneous results also suggest that regions located on the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures. These results confirm the value of a linked host-pest approach as based on D. citri climatic requirements alone the model would have accounted only for shorter development periods and predicted an increased risk of potential distribution.     

Predicting a ‘tree change’ in Australia's tropical savannas: Combining different types of models to understand complex ecosystem behaviour

In this study, key ecological modelling limitations of a process-based simulation model and a Bayesian network were reduced by combining the two approaches. We demonstrate the combined modelling approach with a case study investigating increases in woody vegetation density in northern Australia's tropical savannas. We found that by utilising the strengths of a simulation model and a Bayesian network we could both forecast future change in woody vegetation density and diagnose the reasons for current vegetation states. The local conditions of climate, soil characteristics and the starting population of trees were found to be more important in explaining the likelihood of change in woody vegetation density compared to management practices such as grazing pressure and fire regimes. We conclude that combining the strengths of a process and BN model allowed us to produce a simple model that utilised the ability of the process model to simulate ecosystem processes in detail and over long time periods, and the ability of the BN to capture uncertainty in ecosystem response and to conduct scenario, sensitivity and diagnostic analysis. The overall result was a model that has the potential to provide land managers with a better understanding of the behaviour of a complex ecosystem than simply utilising either modelling approach in isolation.     

The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods

Abstract:  The Greater Himalayas hold the largest mass of ice outside polar regions and are the source of the 10 largest rivers in Asia. Rapid reduction in the volume of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change is occurring. The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability (amounts, seasonality), biodiversity (endemic species, predator–prey relations), ecosystem boundary shifts (tree-line movements, high-elevation ecosystem changes), and global feedbacks (monsoonal shifts, loss of soil carbon). Climate change will also have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for human populations across Asia. A common understanding of climate change needs to be developed through regional and local-scale research so that mitigation and adaptation strategies can be identified and implemented. The challenges brought about by climate change in the Greater Himalayas can only be addressed through increased regional collaboration in scientific research and policy making.