Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

Management of Water Shortage in the Colorado River Basin: Evaluating Current Policy and the Viability of Interstate Water Trading1

Wildman, Richard A., Jr. and Noelani A. Forde, 2012. Management of Water Shortage in the Colorado River Basin: Evaluating Current Policy and the Viability of Interstate Water Trading. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 411-422. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2012.00665.x Abstract: The water of the Colorado River of the southwestern United States (U.S.) is presently used beyond its reliable supply, and the flow of this river is forecast to decrease significantly due to climate change. A recent interim report of the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study is the first acknowledgment of these facts by U.S. federal water managers. In light of this new stance, we evaluate the current policy of adaptation to water shortages in the Colorado River Basin. We find that initial shortages will be borne only by the cities of Arizona and Nevada and farms in Arizona whereas the other Basin states have no incentive to reduce consumptive use. Furthermore, the development of a long-term plan is deferred until greater water scarcity exists. As a potential response to long-term water scarcity, we evaluate the viability of an interstate water market in the Colorado River Basin. We inform our analysis with newly available data from the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia, which has used interstate water trading to create vital flexibility during extreme aridity during recent years. We find that, despite substantial obstacles, an interstate water market is a compelling reform that could be used not only to adapt to increased water scarcity but also to preserve core elements of Colorado River Basin law.     

A multi-criteria framework to assess the sustainability of renewable energy development in the Alps

A multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was implemented to assess the best solutions for enhancing the production of renewable energy in the Alps. A set of criteria were selected based on the impacts of four renewable energy sources (forest biomass, hydropower, ground solar photovoltaic and wind power) on the three spheres of sustainability (environmental, social and economic). Three different scenarios are presented, each with a different set of weights for the criteria: the first scenario considers equally all three aspects of sustainability; the second scenario foresees an environmentally-oriented perspective, while the third scenario is more focused on the socio-economic aspects related to the development of renewable energy. Results show that forest biomass and hydropower seem to be the most viable solutions for enhancing the share of renewable energy in the Alps. Ground solar photovoltaic and wind power, on the other hand, seem to be less attractive alternatives due to their high impacts on land use.     

A critical investigation of evaluation matrices to inform coastal adaptation and planning decisions at the local scale

Local governments are under pressure to tackle an increasing spectrum of complex contemporary problems, such as climate change, while ensuring multiple stakeholder interests are incorporated into decision processes. Multi-criteria decision tools can assist, but challenges remain in creating an enabling environment for incorporating and balancing different stakeholder perspectives. Here, we draw on interview data and a sensitivity analysis to investigate the use of an evaluation matrix to guide local coastal adaptation decision-making in South Africa. We adopt a participatory action research framework and find that decision-making is influenced by individual, departmental and institutional values that are not adequately captured in the matrix approach. Our study reveals the compromise between achieving broad stakeholder representation and utilising technical expertise, and that altering matrix assumptions can imply different decision outcomes. Suggestions are made to improve multi-criteria decision approaches to better facilitate integrated coastal management in responding to local coastal adaptation challenges.     

Assessing the costs for adaptation of marine constructions to sea-level rise

Marine constructions are highly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise (SLR), leading to increased risk rates of destruction and the potential closure of ports, harbors, and marinas along the coast. We present a cost-adjustment analysis for such constructions along the south-eastern Mediterranean coast, which takes into account the physical characteristics of the constructions, and environmental uncertainty factors. At 0.5 m SLR, the estimated adjustment cost is USD 280 million, and at 1 m SLR, the estimated cost is USD 505 million. These costs are equivalent to 0.091% and 0.165% of the Israeli gross domestic production, respectively. Although high, these adjustment costs are lower than the costs of future damage that will accrue if we fail to act. This implies that the adaptation-policy approach to controlling for the risk of SLR will provide benefits to the economic marine sectors and the public at large.     

Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya: An economic analysis

This paper examines the impact of climate change on the decision of farmers to engage or not to engage in livestock activities and also on the choice of different livestock species in Kenya. To this end, cross‐sectional household level data supplemented by long‐term averages of climate data are used. The probit model is employed to derive the response of the probability of engaging in livestock activities to climate change. Probit and multivariate probit methods are employed to model the choice of different livestock species. Atmosphere–ocean global circulation models are used to project the impact of different climate scenarios on the probability of engaging in livestock activities and also of adopting different livestock species according to variations in climate. The results suggest that farmers adapt livestock management decisions to climate change. At low levels of temperature increase, the probability of engaging in livestock activities falls, but at higher levels of climate change, the probability rises. The results further show that as it gets hotter, farmers change their livestock choices from dairy cattle and sheep to beef cattle and goats.     

Understanding urban vulnerability,adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change

This paper introduces a special issue of Local Environment that has arisen through collaboration between academic researchers and the Urban Planning and Design Branch of UN-Habitat, focused on how we can understand and respond to the challenges of urban vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. The paper establishes the existing state of the art in the field, and considers critical challenges that are emerging in the research-based literature. In this context, it introduces UN-Habitat's Cities and Climate Change Initiative and reflects on the lessons learnt and challenges ahead, drawing on insights from across the papers in the special issue. In conclusion, it identifies the role of international/transnational co-operation, the relation between adaptation and mitigation, issues of multi-level governance and the ways in which change in urban socio-technical systems might be achieved as critical issues across the science/policy interface where increased dialogue and the co-production of knowledge needs to focus in order to advance this agenda.     

Integrating climate change adaptation into Dutch local policies and the role of contextual factors

Moving towards a more sustainable adaptation process requires closer integration of policies related to the environment. An important actor in this is the local government. This paper examines to what extend adaptation is currently being integrated into Dutch local policies, and what the role is of a municipality's size, risk and experience in the encountered manifestations of adaptation. First, it was determined that adaptations taking place only anticipate currently perceivable weather extremes – mostly increasing precipitation. Second, it was determined that the realisation of further adaptations is hindered by a strongly sectoral divided reality. Adaptation is now heavily dominated by the water department, while spatial planning and the environment are only limitedly involved. Finally, it was observed that the contextual factor size proved to most important for horizontal policy integration, whereas the contextual factor extreme-weather experience was the most definite for the realisation of adaptations. We conclude that a more sustainable adaptation should first tackle the sectoral divides which requires administrative efforts, for example, professional training. These would preferably be initiated from a vertical direction.     

Nepalganj,the centre of the world: local perceptions of environmental change and the roles of climate-change adaptation actors

This paper explores community perspectives of environmental change and the role development actors in the regional Nepali town of Nepalganj. Understanding these perceptions is crucial for planning future adaptation to climate change and ensuring that these measures are sustainable and in line with community priorities. Firstly, I contend that whilst the local community in Nepalganj may be experiencing the impacts of climate change, they are unfamiliar and disassociated with the concept. Secondly, I identify a number of risks and opportunities around the role of local government, international development organisations and local non-government organisations in future adaptation actions. Participant perceptions of these institutions in their community reinforce a number of established critiques of development around themes such as poor consultation and short project timelines. The long-term success of adaptation actions will be shaped by the ability and willingness of development actors to evolve their practices by listening to local communities.     

The role of scale in integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

By using a scale framework, we examine how cross-scale interactions influence the implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation actions in different urban sectors. Based on stakeholder interviews and content analysis of strategies and projects relevant to climate adaptation and mitigation in the cities of Copenhagen and Helsinki, we present empirical examples of synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation that are driven by the cross-scale interactions. These examples show that jurisdictional and institutional scales shape the implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies, projects and tasks at the management scale, creating benefits of integrated solutions, but also challenges. Investigating the linkages between adaptation and mitigation through a scale framework provides new knowledge for urban climate change planning and decision-making. The results increase the understanding of why adaptation and mitigation are sometimes handled as two separate policy areas and also why attempts to integrate the two policies may fail.     

Climate change adaptation in the urban planning and design research: missing links and research agenda

This paper investigates the extent and the nature of how the urban planning literature has addressed climate change adaptation. It presents a longitudinal study of 157 peer-reviewed articles published from 2000 to 2013 in the leading urban planning and design journals whose selection considered earlier empirical studies that ranked them these journals. The findings reveal that the years 2006–07 represent a turning point, after which climate change studies appear more prominently and consistently in the urban planning and design literature; however, the majority of these studies address climate change mitigation rather than adaptation. Most adaptation studies deal with governance, social learning, and vulnerability assessments, while paying little attention to physical planning and urban design interventions. This paper identifies four gaps that pertain to the lack of interdisciplinary linkages, the absence of knowledge transfer, the presence of scale conflict, and the dearth of participatory research methods. It then advocates for the advancement of participatory and collaborative action research to meet the multifaceted challenges of climate change.     

The ambiguity of federalism in climate policy-making: how the political system in Austria hinders mitigation and facilitates adaptation

Although the impacts of federalism on environmental policy-making are still contested, many policy analysts emphasise its advantages in climate policy-making. This applies to the mitigation of climate change, in particular when federal governments (as in the U.S.) are inactive. More recently, federalism is also expected to empower sub-national actors in adapting to local impacts of climate change. The present paper analyses the role federalism in Austria played in greening the decentralised building sector (relevant for mitigation) on the one hand, and in improving regional flood risk management (relevant for adaptation) on the other. In line with the so-called matching school of the environmental federalism research strand we conclude that Austrian federalism proved to be more appropriate for regional flood protection than for mitigating climate change. We highlight that it is not federalism per se but federalism embedded in various contextual factors that shape environmental policy-making. Among these factors are the spatial scale of an environmental problem, the nitty-gritty of polity systems, and national politics (such as federal positions on climate change mitigation).     

Re-examining the water affordability: A comparison of alternative measures

Water affordability is determined by the percentage of income households that must allocate to municipal water services, while factoring in essential or basic needs water use. With the rise in water prices reported in most areas of the country along with somewhat stagnant income growth—a combination that suggests ceteris paribus—more of a household's disposable income is being spent on water services. This paper adds to the discussion in three ways. First, given the lack of a consistent definition for “affordability” and the subjective connotation associated with such a term, we develop and compare five different water expenditure ratios, including two different measures of water for essential needs, as well as measures for indoor, efficient, and actual water use. Second, because of the granularity of our data, we illustrate how such “affordability” measures can vary significantly within a water district and thus highlight how using district- or county-level income measures can mask the degree to which affordability is an issue for households living in low-income block groups. Our results indicate that the choice of income measure and type of water service use can influence affordability measures substantially.     

Nonstationary Water Planning: An Overview of Several Promising Planning Methods1

Waage, Marc D. and Laurna Kaatz, 2011. Nonstationary Water Planning: An Overview of Several Promising Planning Methods. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):535‐540. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00547.x Abstract: Climate change is challenging the way water utilities plan for the future. Observed warming and climate model projections now call into question the stability of future water quantity and quality. As water utilities cope with preparing for the large range of possible changes in climate and the resulting impacts on their water systems, many are searching for planning techniques to help them consider multiple possible conditions to better prepare for a different, more uncertain, future. Many utilities need these techniques because they cannot afford to delay significant decisions while waiting for scientific improvements to narrow the range of potential climate change impacts. Several promising methods are being tested in water utility planning and presented here for other water utilities to consider. The methods include traditional scenario planning, classic decision making, robust decision making, real options, and portfolio planning. Unfortunately, for utilities vulnerable to climate change impacts, there is no one‐size‐fits‐all planning solution. Every planning process must be tailored to the needs and capabilities of the individual utility.     

Climate,land, energy and water (CLEW) interlinkages in Burkina Faso: An analysis of agricultural intensification and bioenergy production

This paper discusses climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) interactions in Burkina Faso. It shows that integrated assessments of resource use at the national level can provide important insights and benefits, especially for a resource constrained least developed country. Agricultural policy is shown to have strong implications for energy use, whereas energy policies are found to be strongly interrelated with water constraints. Without an integrated and coordinated approach, strategy and policy formulation efforts to increase energy, food and water security could become both incoherent and counter‐productive.     

Place attachment as a driver of adaptation in coastal communities in Northern Norway

Changes in a range of interlinked factors, in social, economic, environmental and climatic conditions, require adaptation in many communities. This paper explores how place attachment affects adaptive responses to a changing social context through analysing adaptation in two coastal municipalities in Northern Norway. The main challenge in these municipalities is declining populations and the consequences accompanying this trend, including livelihood uncertainties and decreased provision of public services. This paper discusses the role of place attachment in motivating adaptation to these changes to contribute to a growing body of literature within climate change adaptation on “subjective” (values, culture and place) dimensions. The findings suggest that people are motivated to act based on their emotional connection with place, and the paper argues that place attachment may offer a better starting point for climate change adaptation than an emphasis on climate change impacts.     

Water Footprint of the Palestinians in the West Bank1

Abstract: Water in the West Bank of Palestine is a key issue due to its limited availability. Water is used from own sources for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes. Moreover, water is consumed in its virtual form through consumption of imported goods, such as crops and livestock, the production of which used water in the country of production. In addition, wastewater in many parts of the West Bank is disposed off without treatment into the wadis, deteriorating the quality of the water resources in the area and, therefore, further reducing the quantity of good quality water available. This paper calculates the water footprint for the West Bank. The consumption component of the water footprint of the West Bank was found to be 2,791 million m³/year. Approximately 52% of this is virtual water consumed through imported goods. The West Bank per capita consumption component of the water footprint was found to be 1,116 m³/cap/year, while the global average is 1,243 m³/cap/year. Out of this number 50 m³/cap/year was withdrawn from water resources available in the area. Only 16 m³/cap/year (1.4%) was used for domestic purposes. This number is extremely low and only 28% of the global average and 21% of the Israeli domestic water use. The contamination component of the water footprint was not quantified but was believed to be many times larger than the consumption component. According to the official definition of water scarcity, the West Bank is suffering from a severe water scarcity. Therefore, there is a need for a completely new approach towards water management in the West Bank, whereby return flows are viewed as a resource and that is geared towards a conservation oriented approach of “use, treat, and reuse.”     

Objectives of public economic policy and the adaptation to climate change

Much can be learned about adaptation by applying structures and methodologies already used in other research fields. This study employs a public economic policy approach to investigate how – or if at all – adaptation should be supported by the public sector. Three different fields of adaptation activity are identified which are especially relevant for government intervention and the study proposes ways in which government intervention could be conducted. The analysis takes into account that developing regions are particularly vulnerable and they have insufficient funds to adequately adapt to climate change.     

Insurance sector management of climate change adaptation in three Nordic countries: the influence of policy and market factors

The insurance industry is important for facilitating climate change adaptation. Insurance companies’ involvement is, however, influenced by national adaptation policy. The literature suggests that especially policy factors – government interventions, political priorities and public–private cooperation – and market factors – cost offset, cost mitigation, planning flexibility and business opportunities – shape private actor approaches. To increase the understanding of insurance company involvement in adaptation, this study examines how insurance companies’ approaches are influenced by policy and market factors in three countries: Denmark, Norway and Sweden. The study found that the policy factors tested significantly shaped the approaches of the companies assessed, while market factors currently appear less influential. This is likely due to the absence of climate risk and adaptation in political debates and among insurance policyholders. The study discusses the potential role of the insurance industry in adaptation governance and suggests how barriers facing insurance companies could be overcome.     

A framework for assessing the accountability of local governance arrangements for adaptation to climate change

Accountability has hardly been studied in the governance of climate change adaptation. This paper develops a framework for assessing the accountability of interactive governance arrangements for local adaptation. This framework is based on five important accountability mechanisms: Clear responsibilities and mandates, Transparency, Political oversight, Citizen control and Checks and sanctions. For illustration purposes, the proposed framework is applied to the case of a Dutch local adaptation governance arrangement. The application shows that the five proposed mechanisms and their operationalizations offer a valid assessment of the accountability of such arrangements. It also raises some challenges, such as the tensions between accountability and flexibility, legitimacy and effectiveness; the potentially important roles of trust and of the political skills of central actor(s) in the arrangement in raising accountability, and the potential need to distinguish between arrangements for policy planning and for service delivery.