Genetic divergence of eastern European and Tobol populations of Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull.

Analysis of geographic variation of chloroplast DNA in the eastern European and western Siberian (Tobol) groups of Calluna vulgaris populations isolated from each other for a long period of time has revealed distinct differentiation between them. It has been shown that three populations growing in the Russian Plain and Karelia share two haplotypes characteristic of central Europe, while three Tobol populations contain one haplotype F occurring in Sweden. These results confirm the hypothesis of genetic divergence between the Tobol and eastern European groups of C. vulgaris populations.     

The phenomenon of spatial distribution of the citrine wagtail (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Motacilla citreola</Emphasis>) in the North of Western Siberia and its ecological interpretation

In the nominotypical subspecies of the citrine wagtail, M. c. citreola Pall., the density of nesting pairs in the northern part of its range in the central Yamal Peninsula reaches a peak in the moss-lichen tundra subzone, while similar biotopes (moist herb-moss willow scrub) are also present in the forest-tundra and shrub tundras. It is suggested that one of the causes of such an unusual distribution is that the birds feed on tipulid larvae, which dominate by biomass among invertebrates in moist moss-lichen tundras. The species is capable of successful existence in the northern Subarctic because of the brevity of its post-nesting period, determined by the endogenous control of the age at the onset of postjuvenal molt, rapid molting during the polar day, partial postnuptial molt, and early development of the migratory state, which provides for early departure.     

Seasonal replacement of populations and abundance dynamics of European robins, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Erithacus rubecula</Emphasis> (L.), in the Highland Crimea

Complete seasonal replacement of European robin populations takes place in the Crimea: local birds of the subspecies E. r. valens depart from the peninsula to be replaced by birds of the nominative subspecies E. r. rubecula, which arrive for wintering. The overall population dynamics of the European robin in the Highland Crimea are determined by seasonal changes in the abundance of local birds, fluctuations in the abundance of birds from northern populations, or variation in the ratio between these groups of birds during their staying together in the Crimea during the periods of seasonal migrations.     

Population structure in European and Siberian spruces according to their phenotypes

Structure and diversity of populations in the European and Siberian spruces were studied by their phenotypes. On vast areas of their total range in the east of Europe and Siberia, significant variability of intrapopulation diversity index in the frequency of individual phenotypes is observed. All analyzed populations are divided into two large groups: with low (and decreased) and high (and increased) levels of intrapopulation diversity. A high level of diversity was observed in the regions with hybrid or intermediate populations, while a low level was in the regions with populations of European and Siberian spruces without genetic interference. Mean level of diversity is typical for the areas with populations transient in these characters.     

Ecological prerequisites for changes in the parental behavior of male pied flycatchers, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ficedula hypoleuca</Emphasis>

On the basis of long-term studies on the ecology of pied flycatcher in Karelia, it has been shown that male nonparticipation in nestling feeding is due to the course of postnuptial molt rather than to the mode of mating relationships, as it was considered previously. This is confirmed by the results of selective capture of birds that have stopped to feed their brood. It is suggested that reduction of parental care is associated with changes in the hormonal balance of molting birds.     

青藏高原年日照时数的年代际变化趋势

利用1961~2007年青藏高原68个气象台站日照时数观测资料,通过统计方法分析了近47 a来青藏高原年日照时数的年代际变化趋势,得到以下几点初步认识：青藏高原年日照时数整体上呈现自东南向西北增加的特点,并且其空间变化趋势也存在明显的区域差异。青藏高原东南部、西藏中部和西藏西南部以及青海北部地区年日照时数减少较为明显,高原西部、西藏中东部地区和青海南部年日照时数呈增加趋势;近47 a来青藏高原年日照时数具有明显的年代际变化特征,年日照时数增加区和减少区分别存在12.1和21.1 a左右的时间尺度;增加区在20世纪60年代至80年代年日照时数处于偏多阶段, 90年代至21世纪初日照时数呈明显的减少趋势;减少区则表现为20世纪60年代至70年代年日照时数有所增加, 90年代日照时数开始急剧减少,21世纪初达到最低值。各年代之间年日照时数变化特点同样具有明显的区域差异。     

近60年中国持续极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析

极端降水具有较强的持续时间不确定性，持续多天的极端降水事件往往具有较大的致灾性，但目前从极端降水持续性角度进行极端降水变化及其环流因素的研究还非常缺乏。利用1961~2018年中国逐日降水格点数据集以及大气环流指数数据，定义持续了2天及以上的极端降水为持续极端降水事件，研究其在中国不同区域发生频次、持续日数以及持续极端降水总量、持续极端降水最大降水量的时空变化和影响因素。结果表明：（1）近60年来，中国持续极端降水事件在较为干旱的地区(蒙新地区、青藏地区)高发且持续时间长，但在较湿润的地区（东部地区）持续极端降水事件强度更高。（2）中国持续极端降水事件的频率和强度均呈现出增加的趋势，但在区域尺度上，东部地区没有明显的变化趋势，越干旱的地区增加趋势越大。各个指数变化趋势的空间分布格局相似。（3）持续极端降水事件对总降水的贡献率呈现出缓慢的增长趋势，东部地区增长趋势不明显。（4）西太平洋副高、南海副高、西太平洋暖池、亚洲区极涡、北半球极涡和中国持续极端降水事件有着显著的相关关系。区域尺度上，西太平洋副高对蒙新地区和青藏地区的影响最大，东部地区则受到西太平洋副高和西太平洋暖池的较大影响。总体上西太平洋副高对于中国持续极端降水事件影响最大，西太平洋副高强度的加强往往会引起中国持续极端降水增多。     

Arthropods and birds in the forest–tundra of Western Siberia and the edge effect

Over 2500 species of invertebrate macrofauna and over 177 species of avifauna live in the forest–tundra of the Lower Ob region and adjacent areas of the northern taiga and shrub tundra. About half of the invertebrate species of the study area are northern—mostly hypo- and hemiarctic—tundra species; the rest are boreal and arctomontane-boreal Holarctic and trans-Palearctic species. The anthophilic and aerobiont insect assemblages include many boreal forest forms. A total of 153 species have been observed nesting at the taiga–foresttundra boundary; 81 species have been observed nesting at the tundra–forest-tundra boundary. The avifauna of the forest–tundra becomes enriched with taiga species in floodplain forests and with tundra species on the flat interfluve, in areas of tundra and tundra-like wetlands. The forest–tundra of the Lower Ob region has no avifauna and entomofauna of its own and contains a mixture of taiga and tundra faunas. It has been found that the ecotone effect is not pronounced in the taxonomic composition of birds and insects in the forest–tundra, where only some particular groups (such as amphibiont insects) have increased abundance.     

Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident

The main purpose of this study is to examine possible impacts and consequences of a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear plant in north-west Russia on different geographical regions: Scandinavia, central Europe, European FSU and Taymyr. The period studied is 1991-1996. An isentropic trajectory model has been used to calculate forward trajectories that originated over the nuclear accident region. Atmospheric transport patterns were identified using the isentropic trajectories and a cluster analysis technique. From the trajectory model results, a number of cases were chosen for examination in detail using more complete transport models. For this purpose, the models MATHEW/ADPIC, DERMA and a newly developed FOA Random Displacement Model have been used to simulate the radionuclide transport and contamination in the case of a nuclear accident and their results have been compared with those of the trajectory modelling. Estimation of the long-term consequences for populations after an accident has been performed for several specific dates by empirical models and correlation between fallout and doses to humans on the basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia.     

长江经济带碳减排潜力与低碳发展策略

为长江经济带低碳发展需要,借助长江经济带11省市2005～2014年间相关数据,对长江经济带及区域间的碳排放、能源强度、碳吸收进行测算,并探讨长江经济带未来低碳发展策略,分析 “高碳情景”与“低碳情景”下2030年各区域的碳减排潜力。研究发现：长江经济带碳排放聚集度较高且整体增速趋缓。东部区域碳排放均值最大,西部区域最小。中部区域碳排放增速最快,东部区域最慢。西部区域能源强度最高,东部区域最低;但中部区域能源强度降幅最大,东部区域降幅最小。西部区域碳汇能力最强,东部区域最弱。基于以上发现,从碳减排责任划分、低碳消费、清洁能源替代、高耗能产业优化以及区域生态质量提升等方面提出相关策略,力图实现碳源面的直接碳减排与碳汇面的相对碳减排。最后,经预测可知：2030年,长江经济带“低碳情景”比“高碳情景”减少碳排放约12亿t,中部区域将成为碳排放主要来源地     

中国工业绿化度测算及影响因素研究

工业生产是现代物质财富的主要来源,同时也是带来环境污染的重要产业。本文对中国工业增长的绿化度进行了考察。首先采用层次分析法测度2005-2009年中国各地区环境污染综合指数,结果表明2005-2009年这5年间全国大多数地区环境污染指数都有不同程度上涨,平均环境污染指数从2005年的0.208上涨到2009年的0.267,就地区差异而言,环境污染指数呈现东高西低的特征,东部地区环境污染指数平均为0.340,而中部地区和西部地区分别为0.241和0.154,这与东部地区工业较为发达存在密切关系,也印证了中国经济发展仍存在较为明显的粗放式特征;其次,应用DEA方法在综合考虑环境污染和能源消耗问题的基础上测度2005-2009年中国各地区工业增长绿化度,结果表明东部地区工业绿化度明显优于中西部地区,东部地区工业绿化度平均为0.689,远高于中部地区的0.435和西部地区的0.496,而且,"十一五"以来,东部地区工业绿化度上升趋势明显,说明东部地区工业增长正在积极向绿色转型;论文还应用TOBIT回归分析法对影响中国工业绿化度的因素进行分析,研究表明技术进步、结构升级、经济开放都会对工业绿化度产生积极的效应。因此,为促进工业绿色增长中国需要进一步为技术的研发、扩散搭建顺畅的渠道;积极推动产业融合,获得协同收益;有效吸引清洁外资,开展绿色生产。     

Influence of Hydrologic Conditions of the Lower Ob Floodplain on Reproduction in Coregonids

The influence of the water level in the period of the open river channel and the duration of lower floodplain inundation on the feeding conditions, abundance, and population state of coregonids in the Lower Ob was investigated. The long-term dynamics of catches of some coregonid species was analyzed and compared with changes in the hydrologic conditions in the floodplain. The relationship between basic hydrologic conditions in the Lower Ob (water level in the period of the open channel, the duration of the lower floodplain inundation), the coregonid population sizes, the state of spawners, and the size of catches is demonstrated.     

Sources and pathways of Sr in the North Atlantic–Arctic region: present day and global warming

The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁰Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing, the Sellafield reprocessing plant in the Irish Sea (UK), and from the Ob and Yenisey river discharges to the Arctic Ocean, have been simulated using the global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysis fields for the period of 1948–1999. Comparison of the temporal evolution of the observed and the simulated concentrations of ⁹⁰Sr has been performed in the Kara Sea. The relative contributions of the different sources on the temporal and spatial distributions of the surface ⁹⁰Sr are quantified over the simulated period. It follows that the Ob river discharge dominated the surface ⁹⁰Sr over most of the Arctic Ocean and along the eastern and western coasts of Greenland before 1960. During the period of 1980–1990, the atmospheric fallout and the Ob river discharge were equally important for the ⁹⁰Sr distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, an attempt has been made to explore the possible dispersion of accidental released ⁹⁰Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers under a global warming scenario (2 × CO₂). The difference between the present-day and the global warming scenario runs indicates that more of the released ⁹⁰Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is confined to the Arctic Ocean in the global warming run, particularly in the near coastal, non-European part of the Arctic Ocean.     

Synoptic patterns associated with extreme dust events in the Mediterranean Basin

Extreme dust events over the western, central and eastern Mediterranean are identified analysing the aerosol optical depth remote-sensed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001–2010 and simulated by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model in 2000–2007. The seasonal variability of the dust events and the evolution of the synoptic circulation patterns before and during the events are studied. Results show that the highest occurrence of short events (1–3 days) is in the eastern Mediterranean, while long events (more than 4 days) are more frequent in the western Mediterranean. Short events are concentrated in spring, while long events do not show a clear seasonality. The synoptic circulation patterns accompanying short and long events are similar, and the occurrence across the Mediterranean Basin is related to westerly low-pressure systems. Dust events in the western Mediterranean are associated with high-pressure conditions limiting the development of lows to the western North Africa, while the eastward evolution of cyclones over the central Mediterranean and Northern Africa accompanies dust events in the central and eastern Mediterranean.     

Population Analysis of Sables in the Ural–Ob Region of the Species Range

An attempt at population analysis of sables in the Ural–Ob region of the species range was made with the use of vast biological material (craniometry, 1909 specimens; ecological structure, 2157 specimens; and coat color, 439169 pelts). Population groups in the region were mainly described on the basis of morphological, geographic, historical, and ecological criteria. Seven spatially separated population groups were found, which were named after the main rivers of their habitats: the Tavda–Konda–Sos'va, Dem'yanka, Salym–Yugan, Agan–Vakh, Kazym–Nazym, Nadym–Kunovat, and Pur–Taz groups. They distinctly differed from one another with respect to cranial measurements, coat color, and some structural demographic parameters. In some cases, morphological differences reached the subspecies level. The data obtained make it possible to revise the pattern of geographic variation within the species range.     

The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change

Human activities are projected to lead to substantial increases in temperature that will impact northern Europe during winter and southern Europe during summer. Moreover, it is expected that these changes will cause increasing water shortages along the Mediterranean and in the south-west Balkans and in the south of European Russia. The consequences on the European agricultural ecosystems are likely to vary widely depending on the cropping system being investigated (i.e. cereals vs. forage crops vs. perennial horticulture), the region and the likely climate changes. In northern Europe, increases in yield and expansion of climatically suitable areas are expected to dominate, whereas disadvantages from increases in water shortage and extreme weather events (heat, drought, storms) will dominate in southern Europe. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean and south-eastern parts of Europe. Among the adaptation options (i.e. autonomous or planned adaptation strategies) that may be explored to minimize the negative impacts of climate changes and to take advantage of positive impacts, changes in crop species, cultivar, sowing date, fertilization, irrigation, drainage, land allocation and farming system seem to be the most appropriate. In adopting these options, however, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and economic functions in different European regions.     

前沿技术进步、技术效率和区域经济差距

采用1998-2009年中国30个省市的人均GDP与当年全国人均GDP的差值作为区域经济差距指标,运用核密度估计方法观察了我国区域经济差距的变动状况。从核密度图可知,我国区域经济呈现出收敛的态势;通过随机前沿模型从全要素生产率中分解出前沿技术进步和技术效率,利用1998-2009年28个省市的面板数据,检验了全要素生产率对区域经济差距的影响。实证结果显示,前沿技术进步能够显著的缩小区域经济差距,其中对于东部地区的效果较为显著,技术效率则能够扩大东部地区的经济差距,对于中部和西部地区的影响不显著。政策含义是缩小东部地区经济差距的主要途径是加大对科技创新领域的投入,加强对欠发达地区的技术支持;对于中部地区和西部地区而言,则应该是加大市场化水平、对外开放水平和地方支出比重。     

Two thresholds determine climatic control of forest fire size in Europe and northern Africa

Fire weather indices predict fire extent from meteorological conditions assuming a monotonic function; this approach is frequently used to predict future fire patterns under climate change scenarios using linear extrapolation. However, the relationship between weather and fire extent may potentially depend on the existence of fuel moisture content thresholds above which this relationship changes dramatically, challenging this statistical approach. Here, we combine the continuous and the threshold approaches to analyze satellite-detected fires in Europe during 2001–2010 in relation to meteorological conditions, showing that fire size response to decreasing fuel moisture content follows a ramp function, i.e., with two plateaus separated by a phase of monotonic increase. This study confirms that at continental and high-resolution temporal scales, large fires are very unlikely to occur under moist conditions, but it also reveals that fire size stops to be controlled by fuel moisture content above a given threshold of dryness. Thus, fuel moisture content control only applies when fire is not limited by other factors such as fuel load, as large fires were virtually absent during the considered period in dry regions with less than 500 mm of average annual precipitation, i.e., low-productive areas where fuel amount would be scarce and discontinuous. In regions with sufficient fuel, other factors such as fire suppression or fuel discontinuity can impede large fires even under very dry weather conditions. These findings are relevant under current climatic trends in which the fire season length, in terms of number of days with drought code values above the observed thresholds (break points), is increasing in many parts of the Mediterranean, while it is decreasing in eastern Europe and remains unchanged in central Europe.     

Has recent climate warming affected the dates of bird arrival to the Il℉men Reserve in the Southern Urals?

The results of regression and correlation analyses of long-term data (1971–2005) on the dates of arrival of 16 bird species to the Il’men State Nature Reserve (the Southern Urals) show that they have not changed in most of these birds, unlike in many countries of Europe and North America. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in the dynamics of spring air temperatures in the study region. Only the herring gull Larus argentatus and the lapwing Vanellus vanellus have shown a significant tendency to arrive earlier, while the garganey Anas querquedula has shown a tendency to arrive on later dates in the past two decades. Nevertheless, interannual fluctuations in the dates of arrival are well manifested in both early arriving species wintering in Europe and late-arriving species wintering in Africa. These fluctuations largely depend on temperature conditions in spring. As a rule, almost all species studied—from waterbirds to passerines—appear in the Il’men Reserve earlier in years with early and warm springs than in cold years. Hence, spring weather is the key factor determining the dates of arrival of migratory birds to the study region.     

Radionuclide contamination of sediment deposits in the Ob and Yenisey estuaries and areas of the Kara Sea

The Ob and Yenisey rivers are major contributors to total riverine discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Several large nuclear facilities discharge into these rivers, which could affect actual and potential discharges of radionuclides to the Arctic region. This article presents new radionuclide concentration and grain-size data resulting from analyses of several sediment samples collected during research cruises in the Ob and Yenisey estuaries and adjacent areas during 2000 and 2001. Results indicate that discharges from the main nuclear facilities do not constitute a major contribution to the level of radioactive contamination in the marine areas studied, though Co-60 was detected at low concentrations in some sediment horizons. However, the aggregate contamination from different sources is not radioecologically significant in sediments within the study area, maximum Cs-137 levels being approximately 80 Bq kg(-1) dry weight.