SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN WATER‐BALANCE MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly water‐balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil‐moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R‐square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long‐term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low‐flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R‐square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.     

MODELING WATER BALANCE WITH THE ERHYM MODEL ON SOUTH TEXAS RANGELANDS1

ABSTRACT: Understanding the hydrologic processes of rangeland plant communities is essential to determine if water augmentation through shrub management is feasible. Vegetation manipulation studies are costly, difficult to accurately replicate, and often require more than 10 years to determine treatment effect on the water budget. If properly applied, hydrologic simulation models are an attractive alternative for assessing vegetation manipulation practices. The ERHYM-II model was evaluated to determine if it was capable of simulating the water balance for honey mesquite shrub clusters, grass interspaces, and bare soil in south Texas. The simulated water budget was within 2 percent of the measured evapotranspiration for the shrub clusters and grass interspaces. The model underestimated the number of runoff events and overestimated runoff volume for the grass interspace and shrub clusters. Simulated runoff was overestimated by approximately twofold for the grass interspace and threefold for the shrub clusters. Although simulated runoff was substantially overestimated, observed and simulated runoff only accounted for 3 to 6 percent of annual rainfall for the grass and shrub dominated areas, respectively. Simulated evapotranspiration was underestimated by 18 percent and soil water content was overestimated by 82 percent for the bare soil. The model underestimated evapotranspiration for the bare soil as a result of restricting evaporative losses to the first soil layer. Based on our analysis, the ERHYM-II model has the potential for simulating the annual water balance for semiarid rangeland plant communities where runoff and deep drainage are limited components of the water balance.     

STEP WISE,MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE CALIBRATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR A SNOWMELT DOMINATED BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated consistently with measured values.     

ESTIMATES OF RUNOFF USING WATER-BALANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.     

SENSITIVITY CONSIDERATIONS WHEN MODELING HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES WITH DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of a hydrologic models to the type of DEM used. This was done while modeling basin water quality with 1:24,000 and 1:250,000 U.S. Geological Survey DEMs as input to model hydro‐logical processes. The manner in which the model results were sensitive to the choice of raster cell size (scale) is investigated in this study. The Broadhead watershed, located in New Jersey, USA, was chosen as a study area. Curve numbers were estimated by a trial and error to match simulated and observed total discharge. Monthly runoff for the watershed was used in the calibration process. Higher runoff volumes were simulated by the model when the 1:24,000 DEM were used as input data, probably due to the finer resolution which simulated increased average slope and hence higher estimated runoff from the watershed. As the simulated slope of the watershed is flatten with the 1:250,000 DEM, the response of stream flow was delayed and simulated less runoff volume.     

Water balance characterization of the early 21st century drought in the western United States

Monthly temperature and precipitation data for 923 United States Geological Survey 8-digit hydrologic units are used as inputs to a monthly water balance model to compute monthly actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture storage, and runoff across the western United States (U.S.) for the period 1900 through 2020. Time series of these water balance variables are examined to characterize and explain the dry conditions across the western U.S. since the year 2000. Results indicate that although precipitation deficits account for most of the changes in actual evapotranspiration and runoff, increases in temperature primarily explain decreases in soil moisture storage. Specifically, temperature has been particularly impactful on the magnitude of negative departures of soil moisture storage during the spring (April through June) and summer (July through September) seasons. These effects on soil moisture may be particularly detrimental to agriculture in regions already stressed by drought such as the western U.S.     

Process-based calibration of WRF-Hydro in a mountainous basin in southwestern U.S.

The National Water Model (NWM) will provide the next generation of operational streamflow forecasts across the United States (U.S.) using the WRF-Hydro hydrologic model. In this study, we propose a strategy to calibrate 10 parameters of WRF-Hydro that control runoff generation during floods and snowmelt seasons, and due to baseflow. We focus on the Oak Creek Basin (820 km²), an unregulated mountainous sub-watershed of the Salt and Verde River Basins in Arizona, which are the largest source of water supply for the Phoenix Metropolitan area. We calibrate the model against discharge observations at the outlet in 2008–2011, and validate it at two stream gauging stations in 2012–2016. After bias correcting the precipitation forcings, we sequentially modify the model parameters controlling distinct runoff generation processes in the basin. We find that capturing the deep drainage to the aquifer is crucial to improve the simulation of all processes and that this flux is mainly controlled by the SLOPE parameter. Performance metrics indicate that snowmelt, baseflow, and floods due to winter storms are simulated fairly well, while flood peaks caused by summer thunderstorms are severely underestimated. We suggest the use of spatially variable soil depth to enhance the simulation of these processes. This work supports the ongoing calibration effort of the NWM by testing WRF-Hydro in a watershed with a large variety of runoff mechanisms that are representative of several basins in the southwestern U.S.     

SIMULATING THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED PRECIPITATION ON GROUND WATER AND STREAMFLOW IN THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS1

ABSTRACT: The Nebraska Sand Hills have a unique hydrologic system with very little runoff and thick aquifers that constantly supply water to rivers, lakes, and wetlands. A ground water flow model was developed to determine the interactions between ground water and streamflow and to simulate the changes in ground water systems by reduced precipitation. The numerical modeling method includes a water balance model for the vadose zone and MOD‐FLOW for the saturated zone. The modeling results indicated that, between 1979 and 1990, 13 percent of the annual precipitation recharged to the aquifer and annual ground water loss by evapotranspiration (ET) was only about one‐fourth of this recharge. Ground water discharge to rivers accounts for about 96 percent of the streamflow in the Dismal and Middle Loup rivers. When precipitation decreased by half the average amount of the 1979 to 1990 period, the average decline of water table over the study area was 0.89 m, and the streamflow was about 87 percent of the present rate. This decline of the water table results in significant reductions in ET directly from ground water and so a significant portion of the streamflow is maintained by capture of the salvaged ET.     

Effects of calibration on L-THIA GIS runoff and pollutant estimation

Urbanization can result in alteration of a watershed's hydrologic response and water quality. To simulate hydrologic and water quality impacts of land use changes, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) system has been used. The L-THIA system estimates pollutant loading based on direct runoff quantity and land use based pollutant coefficients. The accurate estimation of direct runoff is important in assessing water quality impacts of land use changes. An automated program was developed to calibrate the L-THIA model using the millions of curve number (CN) combinations associated with land uses and hydrologic soil groups. L-THIA calibration for the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana was performed using land use data for 1991 and daily rainfall data for six months of 1991 (January 1-June 30) to minimize errors associated with use of different temporal land use data and rainfall data. For the calibration period, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The calibrated CN values were used for validation of the model for the same year (July 1-December 31), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.52 for January 1, 1991 to December 31, 1991 using uncalibrated CN values. As shown in this study, the use of better input parameters for the L-THIA model can improve accuracy. The effects on direct runoff and pollutant estimation of the calibrated CN values in the L-THIA model were investigated for the LEC. Following calibration, the estimated average annual direct runoff for the LEC watershed increased by 34%, total nitrogen by 24%, total phosphorus by 22%, and total lead by 43%. This study demonstrates that the L-THIA model should be calibrated and validated prior to application in a particular watershed to more accurately assess the effects of land use changes on hydrology and water quality.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

Evaluation of the MIKE SHE Model for Application in the Loess Plateau,China1

Abstract: Quantifying the hydrologic responses to land use/land cover change and climate variability is essential for integrated sustainable watershed management in water limited regions such as the Loess Plateau in Northwestern China where an adaptive watershed management approach is being implemented. Traditional empirical modeling approach to quantifying the accumulated hydrologic effects of watershed management is limited due to its complex nature of soil and water conservation practices (e.g., biological, structural, and agricultural measures) in the region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE to simulate basin runoff. Streamflow data measured from an overland flow‐dominant watershed (12 km²) in northwestern China were used for model evaluation. Model calibration and validation suggested that the model could capture the dominant runoff process of the small watershed. We found that the physically based model required calibration at appropriate scales and estimated model parameters were influenced by both temporal and spatial scales of input data. We concluded that the model was useful for understanding the rainfall‐runoff mechanisms. However, more measured data with higher temporal resolution are needed to further test the model for regional applications.     

Variability and Trends in Runoff Efficiency in the Conterminous United States

Variability and trends in water‐year runoff efficiency (RE) — computed as the ratio of water‐year runoff (streamflow per unit area) to water‐year precipitation — in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined for the 1951 through 2012 period. Changes in RE are analyzed using runoff and precipitation data aggregated to United States Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic cataloging units (HUs). Results indicate increases in RE for some regions in the north‐central CONUS and large decreases in RE for the south‐central CONUS. The increases in RE in the north‐central CONUS are explained by trends in climate, whereas the large decreases in RE in the south‐central CONUS likely are related to groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer to support irrigated agriculture.     

A Fully Distributed Implementation of Mean Annual StreamFlow Regional Regression Equations1

Abstract: Estimates of mean annual streamflow are needed for a variety of hydrologic assessments. Away from gage locations, regional regression equations that are a function of upstream area, precipitation, and temperature are commonly used. Geographic information systems technology has facilitated their use for projects, but traditional approaches using the polygon overlay operator have been too inefficient for national scale applications. As an alternative, the Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used as a framework for a fully distributed implementation of mean annual streamflow regional regression equations. The raster “flow accumulation” operator was used to efficiently achieve spatially continuous parameterization of the equations for every 30 m grid cell of the conterminous United States (U.S.). Results were confirmed by comparing with measured flows at stations of the Hydro‐Climatic Data Network, and their applications value demonstrated in the development of a national geospatial hydropower assessment. Interactive tools at the EDNA website make possible the fast and efficient query of mean annual streamflow for any location in the conterminous U.S., providing a valuable complement to other national initiatives (StreamStats and the National Hydrography Dataset Plus).     

Spatial Calibration and Temporal Validation of Flow for Regional Scale Hydrologic Modeling1

Abstract: Physically based regional scale hydrologic modeling is gaining importance for planning and management of water resources. Calibration and validation of such regional scale model is necessary before applying it for scenario assessment. However, in most regional scale hydrologic modeling, flow validation is performed at the river basin outlet without accounting for spatial variations in hydrological parameters within the subunits. In this study, we calibrated the model to capture the spatial variations in runoff at subwatershed level to assure local water balance, and validated the streamflow at key gaging stations along the river to assure temporal variability. Ohio and Arkansas‐White‐Red River Basins of the United States were modeled using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the period from 1961 to 1990. R² values of average annual runoff at subwatersheds were 0.78 and 0.99 for the Ohio and Arkansas Basins. Observed and simulated annual and monthly streamflow from 1961 to 1990 is used for temporal validation at the gages. R² values estimated were greater than 0.6. In summary, spatially distributed calibration at subwatersheds and temporal validation at the stream gages accounted for the spatial and temporal hydrological patterns reasonably well in the two river basins. This study highlights the importance of spatially distributed calibration and validation in large river basins.     

GIS BASED LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EVALUATION FOR WATERSHED URBANIZATION1

ABSTRACT: To adequately manage impacts of ongoing or future land use changes in a watershed, the magnitude of their hydrologic impacts needs to be assessed. A grid based daily streamflow model was calibrated with two years of observed streamflow data, using time periods when land use data are available and verified by comparison of model predictions with observed streamflow data. Streamflow data were separated into direct runoff and baseflow to estimate the impacts of urbanization on each hydrologic component. Analysis of the ratio between direct runoff and total runoff from 30 years of simulation results and the change in these ratios with urbanization shows that estimated annual direct runoff increased from 49.2 percent (1973) to 63.1 percent (1984) and 65.0 percent (1991), indicating the effects of urbanization are greater on direct runoff than on total runoff. The direct runoff ratio also varies with annual rainfall, with dry year ratios larger than those for wet years. This suggests that the impact of urbanization on areas that are sensitive to runoff ratios, such as stream ecosystems, might be more serious during drier years than in wetter years in terms of water quality and water yield. This indicates that sustainable base‐flow is important to maintaining sound stream ecosystems.     

The Water‐Year Water Balance of the Colorado River Basin

Model‐estimated monthly water balance components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff (R)) for 146 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the CRB water balance for water years 1901 through 2014 (a water year is the period from October 1 of one year through September 30 of the following year). Results indicate that the CRB can be divided into six subregions with similar temporal variability in monthly R. The water balance analyses indicated that approximately 75% of total water‐year R is generated by just one CRB subregion and that most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus (S) water generated during the months of October through April. Furthermore, the analyses show that temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the northwestern conterminous U.S. (CONUS) and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the southeastern CONUS. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the North Pacific Ocean into the CRB, particularly the Upper CRB. Additionally, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet periods in the CRB appears to be related to variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.     

SIMULATION AND MAPPING OF SOIL-WATER CONDITIONS IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Soil-water conditions provide valuable insight into the hydrologic system in an area. A soil-water balance quantitatively summarizes soil-water conditions and is based on climatic, soil, and vegetation characteristics that vary spatially and temporally. Soil-water balances in the Great Plains of the central United States were simulated for 1951–1980. Results of the simulations were mean annual estimates of infiltration, runoff, actual evapotranspiration, potential recharge, and consumptive water and irrigation requirements at 152 climatic data stations. A method was developed using a geographic information system to integrate and map the simulation results on the basis of spatially variable climatic, soil, and vegetation characteristics. As an example, simulated mean annual potential recharge was mapped. Mean annual potential-recharge rates ranged from less than 0.5 inch in much of the north-central and southwestern Great Plains to more than 10 inches in parts of eastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas.     

APPLICATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR LAND USE PLANNING IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: An environmental simulation model of the Upper St. Johns River Basin, Florida, has been developed in order to predict hydrologic responses under proposed management plans. Land use projections for each of 19 hydrologic planning units are provided by a linear programming analysis of agricultural activities. Inputs to the model include rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), aquifer properties, topography, soil types, and vegetative patterns. A water balance is developed in the uplands based on infiltration, ET, surface runoff, and groundwater flow. Valley continuity is based on stage-volume relationship for inflows and outflows and a variable roughness coefficient dependent on vegetative patterns. Land use changes form the basis for predicting hydroperiod variation under alternative management schemes. Plans are ranked according to two criteria, deviation from a natural hydroperiod and flood or drought control provided. Results indicate that (1) a single reservoir without irrigation and (2) floodplain preservation plans are superior to (3) multiple reservoir with irrigation and (4) uncontrolled floodplain plans with regard to both criteria.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

SAGEBRUSH RANGELAND HYDROLOGY AND EVALUATION OF THE SPUR HYDROLOGY MODEL1

ABSTRACT: An excellent hydrologic record on sagebrush range-land has been developed at the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwestern Idaho. The objectives of this paper were two-fold: (1) to analyze and describe the hydrologic record (8–18 years) from four sagebrush watersheds (1–83 ha); and (2) to evaluate the hydrology component of SPUR, a comprehensive rangeland model. The watersheds represent a gradient in elevation (1180–1658 m) and precipitation (240–350 mm/yr). Runoff was a small fraction (> 2 percent) of the total water budget for all of the watersheds. It occurred very infrequently at the three lower elevation watersheds: Summit, Flats, and Nancy Gulch. At Lower Sheep, the highest elevation watershed, runoff occurred most years for a period of 1 to 17 weeks in the winter. Frozen soil combined with rainfall or snowmelt was associated with most of the runoff from Flats and Nancy Gulch. At Summit summertime thunderstorms produced all of the runoff. The average annual sediment yield from all of the watersheds was low (17–950 kg/ha). It was highest from Summit, which had well developed alluvial channels and very steep slopes. SPUR was able to simulate runoff with reasonable accuracy only at Summit, where frozen soils were not a factor. There was poor correlation between predicted and actual annual 8ediment loss. The model tended to overpredict evapotranspiration early in the growing season and underpredict it in the late summer.