PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER YIELD IN THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The potential impacts of climate change on water yield are examined in the Upper Wind River Basin. This is a high‐elevation, mountain basin with a snowfall/snowmelt dominated stream‐flow hydrograph. A variety of physiographic conditions are represented in the rangeland, coniferous forests, and high‐elevation alpine regions. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model the baseline input time series data and climate change scenarios. Five hydroclimatic variables (temperature, precipitation, CO₂, radiation, and humidity) are examined using sensitivity tests of individual and coupled variables with a constant change and coupled variables with a monthly change. Results indicate that the most influential variable on annual water yield is precipitation; and, the most influential variable on the timing of streamflow is temperature. Carbon dioxide, radiation, and humidity each noticeably impact water yield, but less significantly. The coupled variable analyses represent a more realistic climate change regime and reflect the combined response of the basin to each variable; for example, increased temperature offsets the effects of increased precipitation and magnifies the effects of decreased precipitation. This paper shows that the hydrologic response to climate change depends largely on the hydroclimatic variables examined and that each variable has a unique effect (e.g., magnitude, timing) on water yield.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES OF THE TSENGWEN CREEK WATERSHED IN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study presents a methodology to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the Tsengwen creek watershed, Taiwan. Tsengwen reservoir, located in the Tsengwen creek watershed, is a multipurpose reservoir with a primary function to supply water for the ChiaNan Irrigation District. A simulation procedure was developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources system. The simulation procedure includes a streamflow model, a weather generation model, a sequent peak algorithm, and a risk assessment process. Three climate change scenarios were constructed based on the predictions of three General Circulation Models (CCCM, GFDL, and GISS). The impacts of climate change on streamflows were simulated, and, for each climate change scenario, the agricultural water demand was adjusted based on the change of potential evapotranspiration. Simulation results indicated that the climate change may increase the annual and seasonal streamflows in the Tsengwen creek watershed. The increase in streamflows during wet periods may result in serious flooding. In addition, despite the increase in streamflows, the risk of water deficit may still increase from between 4 and 7 percent to between 7 and 13 percent due to higher agricultural water demand. The simulation results suggest that the reservoir capacity may need to be expanded. In response to the climate change, four strategies are suggested: (1) strengthen flood mitigation measures, (2) enhance drought protection strategies, (3) develop new water resources technology, and (4) educate the public.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the current assessment of climate impacts on water resources, including aquatic ecosystems, agricultural demands, and water management, in the U.S. Great Plains. Climate change in the region may have profound effects on agricultural users, aquatic ecosystems, and urban and industrial users alike. In the central Great Plains Region, the potential impacts of climate changes include changes in winter snowfall and snow-melt, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperature, and summer time average temperature. Specifically, results from general circulation models indicate that both annual average temperatures and total annual precipitation will increase over the region. However, the seasonal patterns are not uniform. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. Research is needed to better address the current competition among the water needs of agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems, and then to look at potential changes. These diverse demands on water needs in this region compound the difficulty in managing water use and projecting the impact of climate changes among the various critical sectors in this region.     

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTRATROPICAL STORMINESS IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Climate change due to enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide is projected to change the circulation of the atmosphere, increase its moisture content, warm the surface layers, and increase precipitation. Extratropical storms are the intermediate agent in mid-latitudes between changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and surface water resources. The climatology of extratropical storms for the period 1885–1996 is presented, and major changes in storminess are detected across much of North America. General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of storm frequency and storm track are found to have little in common with the observed pattern of storms and evidence no systematic changes in response to an enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide.     

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON URBAN WATER RESOURCES IN THE SOUTHWES THE IMPORTANCE OF CONTEXT1

ABSTRACT: Stresses on water resources in the Southwest take many forms and emanate from many different sources, among which are complex institutional arrangements, significant areal and temporal climatic variability, and high urban growth rates. Further challenges to managing supply and demand in this water‐scarce region are posed by environmental, social, and legal differences within and between the individual urban areas. Analysis of the sensitivity of the urban water sector in the Southwest to climatic variability requires careful consideration of these factors. Such analysis, in turn, provides an essential foundation for effective evaluation of the region's sensitivity to longer term climate change.     

ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT1

ABSTRACT: Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.     

SIMULATED IMPACTS OF EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON UNITED STATES WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena alter global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water supply. ENSO events impact regions and their natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997 and 1998, a strong El Nino brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding, and record snowfall to the west coast of the United States. Research on ENSO events has improved long range climate predictions, affording the potential to reduce the damage and economic cost of these weather patterns. Here, using the Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS), we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states (Neutral, El Niño, La Niña, and strong El Niño) on water resources in the conterminous United States. The simulations show that La Niña conditions increase water yield across much of the country. We find that water yield increases during El Niño years across the south while declining in much of the rest of the country. However, under strong El Niño conditions, regional water yields are much higher than Neutral, especially along the West Coast. Strong El Niño is not simply an amplification of El Niño; it leads to strikingly different patterns of water resource response.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Global climate change due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has serious potential impacts on water resources in the Pacific Northwest. Climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) do not provide enough spatial specificity for studying water resources in mountain watersheds. This study uses dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) driven by a GCM to simulate climate change scenarios. The RCM uses a subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation and land surface cover to simulate surface climate at the spatial scale suitable for the representation of topographic effects over mountainous regions. Numerical experiments have been performed to simulate the present-day climatology and the climate conditions corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The RCM results indicate an average warming of about 2.5°C, and precipitation generally increases over the Pacific Northwest and decreases over California. These simulations were used to drive a distributed hydrology model of two snow dominated watersheds, the American River and Middle Fork Flathead, in the Pacific Northwest to obtain more detailed estimates of the sensitivity of water resources to climate change. Results show that as more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow in the warmer climate, there is a 60 percent reduction in snowpack and a significant shift in the seasonal pattern of streamflow in the American River. Much less drastic changes are found in the Middle Fork Flathead where snowpack is only reduced by 18 percent and the seasonal pattern of streamflow remains intact. This study shows that the impacts of climate change on water resources are highly region specific. Furthermore, under the specific climate change scenario, the impacts are largely driven by the warming trend rather than the precipitation trend, which is small.     

MACROSCALE HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR REGIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT STUDIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UMTED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A macroscale hydrologic model is developed for regional climate assessment studies under way in the southeastern United States. The hydrologic modeling strategy is developed to optimize spatial representation of basin characteristics while maximizing computational efficiency. The model employs the “grouped response unit” methodology, which follows the natural drainage pattern of the area. First order streams are delineated and their surface characteristics are tested so that areas with statistically similar characteristics can be combined into larger computational zones for modeling purposes. Hydrologic response units (HRU) are identified within the modeling units and a simple three‐layer water balance model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is executed for each HRU. The runoff values are then convoluted using a triangular unit hydrograph and routed by Muskingum‐Cunge method. The methodology is shown to produce accurate results relative to other studies, when compared to observations. The model is used to evaluate the potential error in hydrologic assessments when using GCM predictions as climatic input in a rainfall‐runoff dominated environment. In such areas, the results from this study, although limited in temporal and spatial scope, appear to imply that use of GCM climate predictions in short term quantitative analyses studies in rainfall‐runoff dominated environments should proceed with caution.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND HEALTH1

ABSTRACT: We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and availability of fish habitat; changed magnitude and seasonality of runoff regimes that alter nutrient loading and limit habitat availability at low flow; and loss of prairie pothole wetlands that reduces waterfowl populations. Many of the predicted changes in aquatic ecosystems are a consequence of climatic effects on terrestrial ecosystems; shifts in riparian vegetation and hydrology are particularly critical. We review models that could be used to explore potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems; these include models of instream flow, bioenergetics models, nutrient spiraling models, and models relating riverine food webs to hydrologic regime. We discuss potential ecological risks, benefits, and costs of climate change and identify information needs and model improvements that are required to improve our ability to predict and identify climate change impacts and to evaluate management options.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE‐WATER QUALITY IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: Data from long‐term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water‐quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water‐quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate‐induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water‐quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human‐caused changes complicate the interpretation of water‐quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long‐term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.     

A WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE SENEGAL RIVER BASIN1

A study was made to determine the impact on water quality due to water resource development in a large river basin in a semi-arid region of West Africa. Mathematical modeling and the examination of case histories were used to project impacts. The impacts associated with changes in water quality were shown to be slight assuming that modern basin and agricultural management practices are adopted. Analytical techniques normally implemented in studies of more highly developed basins are useful for analysis of water quality impacts in relatively undeveloped basins.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NEW YORK CITY'S WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: It has been well established that the greenhouse gas loading of the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid 19th century. Consequently, shifts in the earth's radiative balance are expected with accompanying alterations to the earth's climate. With these anticipated, and perhaps already observable, changes in both global and regional climate, managers of regional water resources seek insight to the possible impacts climate change may have on their present and future water supplies. The types and degrees of impacts that climate change may have on New York City's water supply system were assessed in a study of a watershed at Allaben, New York. Hypothetical scenarios of future climate and climate change projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used in conjunction with the WatBal hydrological model and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to ascertain how runoff and soil moisture from this watershed may change in a warmer climate. For the worst case predictions, the results indicate that within the century of the 2000s, the watershed's air temperature may increase up to about 11°F, while its precipitation and runoff may decrease by about 13 and 30 percent, respectively. If this watershed is typical of the others within the New York City water supply system, the system's managers should consider implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies in preparation for the worst of these possible future conditions.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.     

CLIMATE CHANGE: POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND INTERACTIONS IN WETLANDS OF THE UNTTED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that this trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea‐level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuanne wetlands, peat lands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothole wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peat‐lands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea‐level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE HYDROLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY OF A PINE PLANTATION1

ABSTRACT: There are increasing concerns in the forestry community about global climate change and variability associated with elevated atmospheric CO₂. Changes in precipitation and increases in air temperature could impose additional stress on forests during the next century. For a study site in Carteret County, North Carolina, the General Circulation Model, HADCM2, predicts that by the year 2099, maximum air temperature will increase 1.6 to 1.9°C, minimum temperature will increase 2.5 to 2.8°C, and precipitation will increase 0 to 10 percent compared to the mid‐1990s. These changes vary from season to season. We utilized a forest ecosystem process model, PnET‐II, for studying the potential effects of climate change on drainage outflow, evapotranspiration, leaf area index (LAI) and forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP). This model was first validated with long term drainage and LAI data collected at a 25‐ha mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) experimental watershed located in the North Carolina lower coastal plain. The site is flat with poorly drained soils and high groundwater table. Therefore, a high field capacity of 20 cm was used in the simulation to account for the topographic effects. This modeling study suggested that future climate change would cause a significant increase of drainage (6 percent) and forest productivity (2.5 percent). Future studies should consider the biological feedback (i.e., stomata conductance and water use efficiency) to air temperature change.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin were determined. The study focused on two important water-resource components in the basin: (1) storage in the reservoirs that supply New York City, and (2) the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. Current reservoir operating procedures provide for releases from the New York City reservoirs to maintain the position of the salt front in the estuary downstream from freshwater intakes and ground-water recharge zones in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. A hydrologic model of the basin was developed to simulate changes in New York City reservoir storage and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary given changes in temperature and precipitation. Results of simulations indicated that storage depletion in the New York City reservoirs is a more likely effect of changes in temperature and precipitation than is the upstream movement of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. In contrast, the results indicated that a rise in sea level would have a greater effect on movement of the salt front than on storage in the New York City reservoirs. The model simulations also projected that, by decreasing current mandated reservoir releases, a balance can be reached wherein the negative effects of climate change on storage in the New York City reservoirs and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary are minimized. Finally, the results indicated that natural variability in climate is of such magnitude that its effects on water resources could overwhelm the effects of long-term trends in precipitation and temperature.