Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

The Hyper-Envelope Modeling Interface (HEMI): A Novel Approach Illustrated Through Predicting Tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) Habitat in the Western USA

Habitat suitability maps are commonly created by modeling a species’ environmental niche from occurrences and environmental characteristics. Here, we introduce the hyper-envelope modeling interface (HEMI), providing a new method for creating habitat suitability models using Bezier surfaces to model a species niche in environmental space. HEMI allows modeled surfaces to be visualized and edited in environmental space based on expert knowledge and does not require absence points for model development. The modeled surfaces require relatively few parameters compared to similar modeling approaches and may produce models that better match ecological niche theory. As a case study, we modeled the invasive species tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) in the western USA. We compare results from HEMI with those from existing similar modeling approaches (including BioClim, BioMapper, and Maxent). We used synthetic surfaces to create visualizations of the various models in environmental space and used modified area under the curve (AUC) statistic and akaike information criterion (AIC) as measures of model performance. We show that HEMI produced slightly better AUC values, except for Maxent and better AIC values overall. HEMI created a model with only ten parameters while Maxent produced a model with over 100 and BioClim used only eight. Additionally, HEMI allowed visualization and editing of the model in environmental space to develop alternative potential habitat scenarios. The use of Bezier surfaces can provide simple models that match our expectations of biological niche models and, at least in some cases, out-perform more complex approaches.     

美国湖泊调查评价技术及对我国湖泊生态环境管理的启示

自2006年起,美国环保署(EPA)在美国本土开展了两次湖泊生态状况调查和评估,从营养状态、生物健康和休闲娱乐的关键指标开展评估,旨在摸清美国湖泊生态环境现状和影响湖泊生态健康的关键胁迫因子。EPA逐步形成了涵盖水文、水质、水生生物等多重指标在内的湖泊调查评估体系,该体系已成为美国湖泊环境管理系统的重要组成部分,为湖泊环境保护和水生态系统恢复提供了有力支持。本文从清单建立、重点调查湖泊清单筛选、采样布点、监测指标、评估方法等方面系统研究总结美国湖泊调查评估的关键技术方法体系,以期为我国湖泊生态环境保护和环境管理工作提供借鉴。     

A Comparison of Approaches for Estimating Relative Impacts of Nonnative Fishes

Lack of standard methods for quantifying impact has hindered risk assessments of high-impact invaders. To understand methodological strengths and weaknesses, we compared five approaches (in parentheses) for quantifying impact of nonnative fishes: reviewing documented impacts in a large-scale database (review); surveying fish biologists regarding three categories of impact (socioeconomic, ecological, abundance); and estimating frequency of occurrence from existing collection records (collection). In addition, we compared game and nongame biologists’ ratings of game and nongame species. Although mean species ratings were generally correlated among approaches, we documented important discrepancies. The review approach required little effort but often inaccurately estimated impact in our study region (Mid-Atlantic United States). Game fishes received lower ratings from the socioeconomic approach, which yielded the greatest consistency among respondents. The ecological approach exhibited lower respondent bias but was sensitive to pre-existing perceptions of high-impact invaders. The abundance approach provided the least-biased assessment of region-specific impact but did not account for differences in per-capita effects among species. The collection approach required the most effort and did not provide reliable estimates of impact. Multiple approaches to assessing a species’ impact are instructive, but impact ratings must be interpreted in the context of methodological strengths and weaknesses and key management issues. A combination of our ecological and abundance approaches may be most appropriate for assessing ecological impact, whereas our socioeconomic approach is more useful for understanding social dimensions. These approaches are readily transferrable to other regions and taxa; if refined, they can help standardize the assessment of impacts of nonnative species.     

A CALIBRATION PROCEDURE USING TOPMODEL TO DETERMINE SUITABILITY FOR EVALUATING POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation was conducted on three forested upland watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to test the suitability of TOPMODEL for predicting water yield over a wide range of climatic scenarios. The analysis provides insight of the usefulness of TOPMODEL as a predictive tool for future assessments of potential long-term changes in water yield as a result of changes in global climate. The evaluation was conducted by developing a calibration procedure to simulate a range of climatic extremes using historical temperature, precipitation, and streamfiow records for years having wet, average, and dry precipitation amounts from the Leading Ridge (Pennsylvania), Fernow (West Virginia), and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) Experimental Watersheds. This strategy was chosen to determine whether the model could be successfully calibrated over a broad range of soil moisture conditions with the assumption that this would be representative of the sensitivity necessary to predict changes in streamfiow under a variety of climate change scenarios. The model calibration was limited to a daily time step, yet performed reasonably well for each watershed. Model efficiency, a least squares measure of how well a model performs, averaged between 0.64 and 0.78. A simple test of the model whereby daily temperatures were increased by 1.7°C, resulted in annual water yield decreases of 4 to 15 percent on the three watersheds. Although these results makes the assumption that the model components adequately describe the system, this version of TOPMODEL is capable to predict water yield impacts given subtle changes in the temperature regime. This suggests that adequate representations of the effects of climate change on water yield for regional assessment purposes can be expected using the TOPMODEL concept.     

Using Wildlife as Receptor Species: A Landscape Approach to Ecological Risk Assessment

To assist risk assessors at the Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site (SRS), a Geographic Information System (GIS) application was developed to provide relevant information about specific receptor species of resident wildlife that can be used for ecological risk assessment. Information was obtained from an extensive literature review of publications and reports on vertebrate- and contaminant-related research since 1954 and linked to a GIS. Although this GIS is a useful tool for risk assessors because the data quality is high, it does not describe the species’ site-wide spatial distribution or life history, which may be crucial when developing a risk assessment. Specific receptor species on the SRS were modeled to provide an estimate of an overall distribution (probability of being in an area). Each model is a stand-alone tool consisting of algorithms independent of the GIS data layers to which it is applied and therefore is dynamic and will respond to changes such as habitat disturbances and natural succession. This paper describes this modeling process and demonstrates how these resource selection models can then be used to produce spatially explicit exposure estimates. This approach is a template for other large federal facilities to establish a framework for site-specific risk assessments that use wildlife species as endpoints.Current address: Biology Department, University of South Dakota, Vermillion, SD 57069     

CLIMATIC CHANGE AND U.S. WATER RESOURCES: FROM MODELED WATERSHED IMPACTS TO NATIONAL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water‐AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water‐AIM models are considered lower‐bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water‐AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro‐logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low‐valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.     

An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system

The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.     

Rapid Assessment of Organic Pollution in a West-central Mexican River Using a Family-level Biotic Index

The cost-effectiveness of rapid assessment approaches make their adaptation for use in developing countries appealing, but biological assessment methods need to be validated before use in new geographic areas. The authors tested the suitability of a family-level biotic index for use in a river in west-central Mexico that receives organic point-source pollution from untreated municipal sewage and sugar-cane processing. The biotic index was highly correlated to dissolved oxygen, and could detect different levels of pollution. Information from rapid assessment biomonitoring was used successfully by local natural resource managers to help bring about improvements in water resource management.     

Variation in Sensitivity of Aquatic Species to Toxicants: Practical Consequences for Effect Assessment of Chemical Substances

5 –10⁶ times higher compared with less sensitive species. The use of assessment factors in effect assessment procedures may lead to an underestimation of effects on the more sensitive species. For many priority pollutants there is little information on their ecotoxicity. Predictive techniques are needed to compensate for this lack of data. Knowledge of the relation between modes of action of compounds and interspecies variation in sensitivity should be integrated in risk assessment procedures in order to make more efficient use of the limited financial resources available.     

Revealing the Diversity of Natural Hydrologic Regimes in California with Relevance for Environmental Flows Applications

Alterations to flow regimes for water management objectives have degraded river ecosystems worldwide. These alterations are particularly profound in Mediterranean climate regions such as California with strong climatic variability and riverine species highly adapted to the resulting flooding and drought disturbances. However, defining environmental flow targets for Mediterranean rivers is complicated by extreme hydrologic variability and often intensive water management legacies. Improved understanding of the diversity of natural streamflow patterns and their spatial arrangement across Mediterranean regions is needed to support the future development of effective flow targets at appropriate scales for management applications with minimal resource and data requirements. Our study addresses this need through the development of a spatially explicit reach‐scale hydrologic classification for California. Dominant hydrologic regimes and their physio‐climatic controls are revealed, using available unimpaired and naturalized streamflow time‐series and generally publicly available geospatial datasets. This methodology identifies eight natural flow classes representing distinct flow sources, hydrologic characteristics, and catchment controls over rainfall‐runoff response. The study provides a broad‐scale hydrologic framework upon which flow‐ecology relationships could subsequently be established towards reach‐scale environmental flows applications in a complex, highly altered Mediterranean region.     

MAXIMIZING THE VALUE OF INFORMATION FOR GROUND WATER PROTECTION: THREE TEST CASES1

ABSTRACT: Public awareness of the importance of protecting the nation's water supplies is growing. Recent studies have shown a substantial increase in the perceived value of protecting water supplies for future use. In the Northeast, much of the water supply comes from ground water. This paper examines three test cases, each with different approaches for using geographic information systems (GIS) for ground water protection planning. In Wellfleet, Massachusetts, build-out scenarios were used to support regulatory and land acquisition decisions for siting a public water supply well. In Hadley, Massachusetts, the focus was on a decision support model for septic suitability assessment in support of regulatory efforts and infrastructure expansion. For Cortland County, New York, an interactive graphic user interface was created to facilitate the manipulation and recombination of a large volume of data by county officials to target ground water pollution prevention efforts. As personal computers become more powerful and inexpensive, and GIS data become more readily available, community and county governments are turning to GIS as a tool for developing comprehensive resource protection plans. Once appropriate data are input, a GIS can effectively and efficiently be used to derive outcomes of various land use plans and regulations.     

Suitability Analysis for Greenway Planning in China: An Example of Chongming Island

Suitability analysis for greenway planning was developed in the Western culture. When applying a suitability analysis to a very different sociocultural context such as China, it is necessary to identify what hinders or promotes it. Through an example of Chongming Island, this article demonstrates how to apply a suitability analysis for greenway planning in China. Furthermore, it argues that obstacles including a lack of data, peculiarity of capability scores within land use and a neglect of scientific group involvement are encountered in the process of applying suitability methods in Chongming or China. Early and sustained attention to such impediments could improve the success of suitability assessment in China. These research results are helpful for the planning and implementation of Chongming greenways.     

Fuzzy assessment of land suitability for scientific research reserves

Evaluating the characteristics of a set of sites as potential scientific research reserves is an example of land suitability assessment. Suitability in this case is based upon multiple criteria, many of which can be linguistically imprecise and often incompatible. Fuzzy logic is a useful method for characterizing imprecise suitability criteria and for combining criteria into an overall suitability rating. The Ecosystem Management Decision Support software combined a fuzzy logic knowledge base we developed to represent the assessment problem with a GIS database providing site-specific data for the assessment. Assessment of sites as a potential natural reserve for the new University of California campus at Merced demonstrates the benefits of fuzzy suitability assessment. The study was conducted in three stages of successively smaller assessment regions with increasingly fine spatial resolution and specificity of criteria. Several sites were identified that best satisfy the suitability criteria for a reserve to represent vernal pool habitat.     

Modeling Protected Species Habitat and Assigning Risk to Inform Regulatory Decisions

In the United States, environmental regulatory agencies are required to use “best available” scientific information when making decisions on a variety of issues. However, agencies are often hindered by coarse or incomplete data, particularly as it pertains to threatened and endangered species protection. Stakeholders often agree that more resolute and integrated processes for decision-making are desirable. We demonstrate a process that uses species occurrence data for a federally endangered insect (Karner blue butterfly), a readily available habitat modeling tool, and spatially explicit information about an important Michigan commodity (tart cherries). This case study has characteristics of many protected species regulatory decisions in that species occurrence data were sparse and unequally distributed; regulatory decisions (on pesticide use) were required with potentially significant impacts on a viable agricultural industry; and stakeholder relations were diverse, misinformed, and, in some situations, unjustly contentious. Results from our process include a large-scale, empirically derived habitat suitability map for the focal species and a risk ranking of tart cherry orchards with risk based on the likelihood that pesticide applications will influence the focal protected species. Although the majority (77%) of pesticide-influence zones overlapped Karner blue butterfly habitat, risk scores associated with each orchard were low. Through our process we demonstrated that spatially explicit models can help stakeholders visualize and quantify potential protected species effects. In addition, model outputs can serve to guide field activities (e.g., species surveys and implementation of pesticide buffer zones) that help minimize future effects.     

Rough Set Rule Induction for Suitability Assessment

The data that characterize an environmental system are a fundamental part of an environmental decision-support system. However, obtaining complete and consistent data sets for regional studies can be difficult. Data sets are often available only for small study areas within the region, whereas the data themselves contain uncertainty because of system complexity, differences in methodology, or data collection errors. This paper presents rough-set rule induction as one way to deal with data uncertainty while creating predictive if–then rules that generalize data values to the entire region. The approach is illustrated by determining the crop suitability of 14 crops for the agricultural soils of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. To implement this method, environmental and crop yield data were spatially related to individual soil units, forming the examples needed for the rule induction process. Next, four learning algorithms were defined by using different subsets of environmental attributes. ROSETTA, a software system for rough set analysis, was then used to generate rules using each algorithm. Cross-validation analysis showed that all crops had at least one algorithm with an accuracy rate greater than 68%. After selecting a preferred algorithm, the induced classifier was used to predict the crop suitability of each crop for the unclassified soils. The results suggest that rough set rule induction is a useful method for data generalization and suitability analysis.     

AN ANALYSIS OF SEASONAL FECAL COLIFORM LEVELS IN THE TCHEFUNCTE RWER1

ABSTRACT: A model for estimating seasonal fecal coliform concentrations in the Tchefuncte River as a function of river discharge was developed. Data on fecal coliform concentration were obtained from the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals and were available for a period of 15 years (1975 through 1992) from three locations. Stream flow data were obtained from a gaging station of the U. S. Geological Survey at Folsom, Louisiana. These data were available for 49 years (1943 through 1991). The climate of the area is characterized by different precipitation/runoff mechanisms for the summer and winter seasons. The division for seasons used in this analysis was May through October (summer season), and November through April (winter season). Because of the combined effects of climatic mechanisms causing precipitation and the seasonal variation of evapotranspiration, runoff is greater in the winter season resulting in higher fecal coliform counts in the Tchefuncte River. Statistical analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between fecal coliform concentration and discharge for each season, at each of three sites on the Tchefuncte River.     

Does Human-Induced Habitat Modification Influence the Impact of Introduced Species? A Case Study on Cavity-Nesting by the Introduced Common Myna (Acridotheres tristis) and Two Australian Native Parrots

Introduced species pose a major threat to biodiversity across the globe. Understanding the impact of introduced species is critical for effective management. Many species around the world are reliant on tree cavities, and competition for these resources can be intense: threatening the survival of native species. Through the establishment of 225 nest boxes, we examined the relationship between tree density and the abundance and nesting success of three bird species in Canberra, Australia. The common myna (Acridotheres tristis) is an introduced species in Australia, and the crimson rosella (Platycercus elegans) and eastern rosella (Platycercus eximius) are native species. We then investigated the impact of common myna nest box occupation on crimson rosella and eastern rosella abundance. Tree density significantly influenced the abundance and cavity-nesting of all three species. Common myna abundance (birds per square kilometer) was greatest at low tree density sites (101.9 ± 22.4) and declined at medium (45.4 ± 10.1) and high (9.7 ± 3.6) tree density sites. The opposite pattern was observed for the crimson rosella, with greater abundance (birds per square kilometer) at high tree density sites (83.9 ± 9.3), declining over medium (61.6 ± 6.4) and low (31.4 ± 3.9) tree density sites. The eastern rosella was more abundant at medium tree density sites (48.6 ± 8.0 birds per square kilometer). Despite the strong influence of tree density, we found a significant negative relationship between common myna nest box occupancy and the abundance of the crimson rosella (F _1,13 = 7.548, P = 0.017) and eastern rosella (F _1,13 = 9.672, P < 0.001) at some sites. We also observed a slight increase in rosella nesting interruptions by the common myna at lower tree densities (high: 1.3 % ± 1.3, medium: 6.6 % ± 2.2, low: 12.7 % ± 6.2), although this increase was not statistically significant (F _2,40 = 2.435, P = 0.100). Our study provides the strongest evidence to date for the negative impact of the common myna on native bird abundance through cavity-nesting competition. However, due to the strong influence of habitat on species abundance and nesting, it is essential to investigate the impacts of introduced species in conjunction with habitat variation. We also suggest one component of introduced species management could include habitat restoration to reduce habitat suitability for introduced species.     

Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.     

Risk-based standards: integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches

In response to rapidly changing threats posed to increasingly complex socio-technical systems, many in the government and private sector have called for protection through risk-based standards. However, given the nature of these dynamic and uncertain threats, traditional risk assessment techniques may not be sufficient. Instead, there is a critical need for an integrated approach in which decision analytic techniques are used to assess evidence-based data with the values and preferences of decision makers. We point to three examples in the fields of nuclear power regulation, nanotechnology, and cybersecurity, where risk-based approaches (bottom–up) have been combined with decision analysis (top–down) to guide decision makers toward risk management policies that manifest both the best available evidence and the plurality of values within a society.