Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

Yield and quality of charcoals from olive mill residues and its stone and pulp fractions: An enhanced comparative study

Pyrolysis is a promising way to upgrade large amounts of residues from olive oil processing into charcoal. Pyrolysis of the stone and pulp fractions needed to be investigated before conclusions could be drawn. We subjected the olive stone fraction, the pulp fraction, and a mixture of the two to dynamic pyrolysis and isothermal pyrolysis at 360°C. We characterized the charcoals resulting from isothermal pyrolysis at 360°C for different durations in terms of the fixed-carbon content (FCC), carbon content (CC), and high heating value (HHV). We found that charcoal yield from the pulp was higher than that from the stones, which were 38.1% and 32.9%, respectively, after pyrolysis for 360 min. This seemingly unexpected result was due to the high contents of ash (6.22%) and extractives (13%) in the pulp, which remained completely and partially undecomposed, respectively, in the charcoals and are accounted for when calculating yields. However, charcoals obtained from the stones were of higher quality than charcoals from the pulp, with lower ash content and higher FCC, CC, and HHV. In particular, the FCC, CC, and HHV after pyrolysis for 360 min were 73.2%, 74.4%, and 30.2 MJ/kg for the stones and only 61.8%, 63.2%, and 25.9 MJ/kg for the pulp, respectively. Depending on the required quality of the final charcoal, our results help decide whether to pyrolyse the entire olive residues or only one of the two fractions, more likely the stones.     

Assessment of biomass and lipid productivity and biodiesel quality of an indigenous microalga Chlorella sorokiniana MIC-G5

Generation of biodiesel from microalgae has been extensively investigated; however, its quality is often not suitable for use as fuel. Our investigation involved the evaluation of biodiesel quality using a native isolate Chlorella sorokiniana MIC-G5, as specified by American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), after transesterification of lipids with methanol, in the presence of sodium methoxide. Total quantity of lipids extracted from dry biomass, of approximately 410–450 mg g^?1 was characterized using FTIR and ¹H NMR. After transesterification, the total saturated and unsaturated fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) were 43% and 57%, respectively. The major FAMEs present in the biodiesel were methyl palmitate (C16:0), methyl oleate (C18:1), and methyl linoleate (C18:2), and the ¹H NMR spectra matched with criteria prescribed for high-quality biodiesel. The biodiesel exhibited a density of 0.873 g cm^–3, viscosity of 3.418 mm² s^?1, cetane number (CN) of 57.85, high heating value (HHV) of 40.25, iodine value of 71.823 g I₂ 100 g^?1, degree of unsaturation (DU) of 58%, and a cold filter plugging point (CFPP) of –5.22°C. Critical fuel parameters, including oxidation stability, CN, HHV, iodine value, flash point, cloud point, pour point, density, and viscosity were in accordance with the methyl ester composition and structural configuration. Hence, C. sorokiniana can be a promising feedstock for biodiesel generation.     

Evaluation of a Watershed Model for Estimating Daily Flow Using Limited Flow Measurements1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.     

Thermogravimetric pyrolysis of waste polyethylene-terephthalate and polystyrene: A critical assessment of kinetics modelling

Pyrolysis is considered as possible technique to thermally convert waste plastics into chemicals and energy. Literature on experimental findings is extensive, although experiments are mostly performed in a dynamic heating mode, using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and at low values of the heating rate (mostly below 30 K/min). The present research differs from literature through the application of far higher heating rates, up to 120 K/min. The use of these dynamic results to define the reaction kinetics necessitates the selection of an appropriate reaction mechanism, and 21 models have been proposed in literature considering the rate limiting step being diffusion, nucleation or the reaction itself.The current research studied the cracking of PET and PS by TGA at different heating rates (temperature ramps). Results were used to check the validity of the proposed mechanisms. Several conclusions are drawn: (i) to obtain fair results, the heating ramp should exceed a minimum value, calculated at 30 K/min for PET and 80 K/min for PS; (ii) application of the majority of the models to experimental findings demonstrated that they do not meet fundamental kinetic considerations and are questionable in their use; and (iii) simple models, with reaction order 1 or 2, provide similar results of the reaction activation energy.A further comparison with literature data for dynamic and isothermal experiments confirms the validity of these selected models. Since TGA results are obtained on a limited amount of sample, with results being a strong function of the applied heating rate, the authors believe that isothermal experiments, preferably on a large scale both towards equipment and/or sample size, are to be preferred.     

An inequality study of ambient nitrogen dioxide and traffic levels near elementary schools in the Tampa area

Environmental equity has been identified as a challenge and goal of national to global air quality management. Here, relationships between traffic-related air pollution measures and the social demographics of elementary schools are investigated. Ogawa passive samplers were used to measure ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) levels near 75 randomly selected elementary schools in the county containing Tampa, FL over one week in March 2008. Concentrations were determined using colorimetric reaction using Hach nitrite reagent and photometric detection at 545 nm. NO(2) levels, two metrics of traffic (highest annual average daily traffic count within 500 m and 1000 m), and school enrollment data by demographic subgroup (racial/ethnic and socioeconomic) were then compared. Data were analyzed for distribution statistics, linear correlations, and differences in subgroup category means. Weighted average values of NO(2) and traffic count were also calculated for each subgroup. All measured NO(2) levels were low, with a mean of 2.7 ppbv and range from 0.8 to 4.7 ppbv. Values were largest at sites near downtown. Results from all analyses show comparatively higher potential exposures to measured NO(2) and traffic count for black school children, and lower values for white and Asian or Pacific Islander school children. The economically disadvantaged and Hispanic subgroups were also associated with higher levels of NO(2) and traffic counts, but the relationship was not as strong or robust. Although measured NO(2) levels were low and the differences between groups are small, results suggest disparities by racial/ethnic and economic status in children's exposures to air pollution for the Tampa area.     

Thermochemical characteristics of dairy manure and its derived biochars from a fixed-bed pyrolysis

Based on the data on the thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), oven-dried dairy manure was performed at moderate temperatures (673–1,073 K) with proper residence time of 60 min by a vertical fixed-bed pyrolyzer. The thermochemical properties of the dairy manure and its biochar products, such as elemental analysis and calorific value (higher heating value), were investigated to evaluate their potential use as biomass fuel. Furthermore, the true densities of the manure-derived biochars were also obtained to relate the property with their thermochemical properties. It showed that the calorific value of the dairy manure-derived biochar (denoted as DMBC) was on increasing trend with temperature, while its maximal increase occurred at around 873 K. This result was in high agreement with the data on the yields and carbon contents of DMBC products. By contrast, their contents of H, N, and O decreased slightly due to the devolatilization because of thermal decomposition reactions like depolymerization and carbonization. The optimal manure-derived biochar revealed an excellent characterization with high content of carbon (60 wt%) and calorific value (22.3 MJ/kg), low contents of nitrogen (0.5 wt%), and no traces of sulfur and heavy metals, suggesting that DMBC can be used as a solid fuel for energy use.     

湛江某海上风电桩基局部冲刷特征研究

海上风电场桩基局部冲刷是工程设计与运行阶段的重要参数之一。基于湛江某海上风电场桩基3次现场局部冲刷实测数据,进行冲刷坑最大深度、冲刷坑半径和冲淤变化特征的分析与研究;根据桩基局部冲刷经验公式,采用工程海域实测海洋水文动力学数据进行最大冲刷深度与冲刷半径的计算,并进行公式计算值的对比与分 析。结果表明:桩基础在防冲刷设施的保护下,3次实测最大冲刷深度基本稳定为4.0 m,最大冲刷深度与桩径之比为0.57。而经验公式的最大冲刷深度与桩径之比均超过了1.1,说明桩基防冲刷设施取得了一定的效果,冲刷坑半径的计算值与现场实测值吻合较好。建议海上风电场在运行阶段进一步加强桩基冲刷坑监测与防护。     

Modelling of CO2 arrival time at Ketzin – Part I

The injection of CO₂ at the Ketzin storage site and the chemical detection of its arrival in the observation well allowed testing of different numerical simulation codes. ECLIPSE 100 (E100, black-oil simulator), ECLIPSE 300 (E300, compositional CO₂STORE) and MUFTE-UG were used for predictive modelling applying a constant injection rate of 1 kg s^?1 CO₂ and for a history match applying the actual variable injection rate which ranged from 0 to 0.7 kg s^?1 and averaged 0.23 kg s^?1. The geological model applied, is based on all available geophysical and geological information and has been the same for all programs.The results of the constant injection regime show a good agreement among the programs with a discrepancy of 21–33% for the CO₂ arrival times. However, it is determined from the comparison of the cumulative mass of CO₂ at the time of CO₂ arrival that the injection regime is an important factor for the accurate prediction of CO₂ migration within a saline aquifer. Comparing the actual variable injection regime with the simulations applying a constant injection rate the results are relatively inaccurate.Regarding the actual variable injection regime, which was evaluated using all three simulators, the computational results show a good agreement with the data actually measured at the first observation well. Here, the calculated arrival times exceeded the actual ones by 8.1% (E100), 9.2% (E300) and 17.7% (MUFTE-UG).It can be concluded that irrespective of the deviations of the simulations, due to combinations of different codes and slight differences in input parameters, all three programs are well equipped to give a reliable estimate of the arrival of CO₂. Deviations in the results mainly occur due to different input data and grid size choices done by the different modelling teams working independently of each other. Deviations of the simulations results compared to the actual CO₂ arrival time result from uncertainties in the implementation of the geological model, which was set up based on well log data and analogue studies.     

USING COMPUTED STREAM FLOW IN WATERSHED ANALYSIS1

Modifications in the computed climatic water budget have made it possible to achieve good agreement between computed and measured stream flow on both a monthly and annual basis in basins without appreciable winter snow cover. Comparisons of computed and measured stream flow in 28 basins on the Delmarva peninsula show that for some basins the agreement is excellent (regression line essentially equals unity), for other basins the regression line has a slope of one but it is displaced above or below the y=x line, while for other basins, the slope of the regression line differs appreciably from unity. Study of the basins where agreement between computed and measured values is only fair to poor reveals that the patterns of disagreement can be used to provide information on the water holding capacity in the root zone of the soil, on the quantity of deep aquifer recharge within the basin, or on the effect of human modifications within the basin. The technique should also reveal the quantity of interbasin transfers or other consumptive uses within the basin. The water budget, thus, becomes a useful tool to study hydrologic characteristics or their changes over time within a basin.     

Product quality-based eco-efficiency applied to digital cameras

When calculating eco-efficiency, there are considerable confusion and controversy about what the product value is and how it should be quantified. We have proposed here a quantification method for eco-efficiency that derives the ratio of the multiplication value of the product quality and the life span of a product to its whole environmental impact based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). In this study, product quality was used as the product value and quantified by the following three steps: (1) normalization based on a value function, (2) determination of the subjective weighting factors of the attributes, and (3) calculation of product quality of the chosen products. The applicability of the proposed method to an actual product was evaluated using digital cameras. The results show that the eco-efficiency values of products equipped with rechargeable batteries were higher than those products that use alkaline batteries, because of higher quality values and lower environmental impacts. The sensitivity analysis shows that the proposed method was superior to the existing methods, because it enables to identify the quality level of the chosen products by considering all products that have the same functions in the market and because, when adding a new product, the calculated quality values in the proposed method do not have to be changed.     

SPATIAL COMPARABILITY OF THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index, which is intended to be of reasonable comparable local significance both in space and time, has been extensively used as a measure of drought for both agricultural and water resource management. This study examines the spatial comparability of Palmer's (1965) definition of severe and extreme drought. Index values have been computed for 1035 sites with at least 60 years of record that are scattered across the contiguous United States, and quantile values corresponding to a specified index value were calculated for given months and then mapped. The analyses show that severe or extreme droughts, as defined by Palmer (1965), are not spatially comparable in terms of identifying rare events. The wide variation across the country in the frequency of occurrence of Palmer's (1965) extreme droughts reflects the differences in the variability of precipitation, as well as the average amount of precipitation. It is recommended first, that a drought index be developed which considers both variability and averages; and second, that water resource managers and planners define a drought in terms of an index value that corresponds to the expected quantile (return period) of the event.     

The effect of cerium oxide additive on the performance and emission characteristics of a CI engine operated with rice bran biodiesel and its blends

In this study, the rice bran oil (RBO) has been converted into methyl ester with an aid of transesterification reaction. Chemically, transesterification means conversion of triglyceride molecule or a complex fatty acid into alcohol and ester by removing the glycerin and neutralizing the free fatty acids. The B20 blend samples [80% diesel + 20% biodiesel] were prepared for each methyl ester obtained from RBO and then the cerium oxide (CeO₂) nanoparticles were added to the each B20 blend samples at a dosage of 50 ppm and 100 ppm with an aid of ultrasonicator. Moreover, in the absence of any engine modifications, the performance and emission characteristics of those blend samples have been investigated from the experimentally measured values such as density, viscosity, cloud point, pour point, and calorific value while the engine performance was also analyzed through the parameters like exhaust gas temperature (EGT), brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC), brake thermal efficiency (BTE), exhaust emission of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC), and nitrogen oxide (NOx). The experimental results reveal that the use of CeO₂ blended biodiesel in diesel engine has exhibited good improvement in performance characteristic and reduction in exhaust emissions.     

The value of open ocean ecosystems: A case study for the Spanish exclusive economic zone

Valuing goods and services from open oceans provides arguments for the ocean's protection and plays an increasingly important role in debates on the use and management of natural resources. This paper identifies and estimates the monetary value of some of the most important goods and services provided by open oceans. The list of goods and services considered includes food production, raw materials, water supply, CO₂ regulation, bioremediation of waste, biomass and biodiversity conservation. Therefore, not only values associated with productive uses are quantified but also values assigned to other biological ecosystem services. This paper constitutes a first attempt in the open ocean literature at evaluating services such as water supply, biomass and biodiversity conservation. To obtain their monetary value, different techniques, some not applied before in this area, have been used depending on the ecosystem service to be evaluated. As a general criterion we use the concept of net value added (revenues obtained from the services less incurred costs). Our methodology is illustrated by estimating the monetary values of goods and services provided by the open ocean ecosystem of Spain as defined by its exclusive economic zone. The total economic value obtained measures the contribution of oceans to overall welfare and it may be an important instrument in managing open ocean ecosystems and developing environmental policies in the future.     

Application of surface molecular imprinting adsorbent in expanded bed for the adsorption of Ni(2+) and adsorption model

A new surface molecular imprinting adsorbent (SMIA) was used in an expanded bed. The expansion ratio and adsorption performance were studied at different volumetric rates, inlet concentrations, and pH values. A model based on the Adams-Bohart adsorption model of breakthrough curves was established. The predicted curves had good agreement with the experimental curves. The breakthrough time (T(1/2)) decreased with increasing inlet concentration when the outlet concentration was half the initial concentration (C/C(0)=0.5). The inlet concentration had little effect on the adsorption rate constant (k(1)) value when the initial concentration (C(0)) was above 150 mg/L. However, T(1/2) values increased with increasing initial pH of the inlet solution, and the k(1) value decreased due to the competition between H(+) and Ni(2+).     

The Use of a Simple Air Quality Index in the Helsinki Area, Finland

2 (1 and 24 h), SO₂ (1 and 24 h), O₃ (1 h) and PM₁₀ (24 h). The AQI is linked to the new air quality guidelines in Finland. The AQI is based on acute health effects, but long-term effects on nature and materials are also taken into consideration. Subindices are calculated hourly for all pollutants and for a given hour the highest subindex becomes the AQI. AQI values are currently calculated for the center of Helsinki and for typical suburban areas.     

Flow and diffusion measurements in natural porous media using magnetic resonance imaging

Flow and diffusion of water in natural porous media, quartz sand, and calcareous gravel were measured using a 1.5-T clinical magnetic resonance tomograph. The spatial resolution of the dynamic measurements was 1.32 x 1.32 x 5 mm3, and the time between two cross-sectional measurements was approximately 10 s. The measured coefficients of molecular diffusion for water were in good agreement with theoretical data. Flow was measured without any tracer at velocities between 0.15 and 6.67 mm/s. The results, based on a calibration within one part of the column, were in good agreement with data obtained from a tracer experiment and from a numerical model. It was possible to measure the flow velocity in larger pores and preferential flow paths directly. The results of the flow measurements in smaller pores reflected the mean velocity within that volume element. In that case the obtained values were close to the average linear velocity. Since the time resolution is high a monitoring of flow processes is possible. The pore space was imaged with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 mm3. Here, the porosity of pores that are larger than 0.2 mm can be measured directly; for smaller pores a calibration is necessary.     

Chemical characterization of synthetic soil from composting coal combustion and pharmaceutical by-products

Land application of coal combustion by-products (CCBs) mixed with solid organic wastes (SOWs), such as municipal sewage sludge, has become increasingly popular as a means of productively using what were once considered waste products. Although bulk chemical and physical properties of several of these CCB-SOW materials have been reported, detailed information about their synthesis and mineralogy of the CCB-SOW materials has not been reported. In this paper, chemical and mineralogical properties of a soil-like material obtained from composting a mixture of CCBs with a pharmaceutical fermentation by-product (FB) were investigated at the laboratory and field scale. All starting materials and products were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), fourier transform infrared (FFIR) spectroscopy, and elemental analyses. The results showed that the FB was strongly bound to the CCBs and could not be removed by washing. Within 2 wk of the start of a composting study, there was a rapid drop in pH from 12 to 8, an increase in temperature to 70 degrees C, and a reduction in the dissolved oxygen content, attributed to the rapid establishment of a highly active microbial population. Composting produced a soil-like material with high levels of plant nutrients, a high nutrient retention capacity, and metal contents similar to median levels of those metals reported for soils. The levels of boron and soluble salts are such that sensitive plants may initially show toxicity symptoms. However, with adequate rainfall, leaching should rapidly remove most of the B and soluble salts. With care, the material produced is safe for use as a synthetic topsoil.     

Simulation and validation of a suitable model for thin layer drying of ginger rhizomes in an induced draft dryer

Variation in drying material and their biological differences, coupled with heat supply method in different dryers, makes mathematical modeling of drying complicated. Attempt was made to simulate a drying process and to identify best suitable model out of six selected drying models, for drying of ginger slices in a solar-biomass integrated drying system designed and developed for spice drying. Moisture content data were converted into the moisture ratio (MR) expressions and curve fitting with drying time for the selected drying models was analyzed. Sigma Plot software was used for nonlinear regression to the data obtained during drying and for modeling of drying curves. The suitability of the models was evaluated in terms of statistical parameters such as coefficient of determination (R²), mean percentage error (P), and standard error estimate. Drying air temperature was in the range of 47–55°C and air velocity was between 1.0 and 1.3 m s^?1. Ginger slices were dried from 88.13% to 7.65 ± 0.65% (wb) in 16 h. Trays were interchanged in a predetermined matrix sequence from 4 h onwards when moisture content was reduced to 60–70% (wb), for uniformity in drying. Highest value of R² (0.997), lowest value of SEE (0.020), and P value < 0.0001 established Page model as the best suitable model for the developed drying system. The predicted MRs were in good agreement with the experimental values and the effective moisture diffusivity for ginger was found to be 2.97 × 10^–7 m² s^?1.