Composite indicators for famine early warning systems

Traditional famine early warning systems use a host of indicators to predict food crisis situations, from rainfall and increased rate of marketing of household durables to the behavior of birds and animals. Although many of these indicators are valid in general, limited understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of the distress signals makes food crisis prediction a highly subjective exercise. In order to make the system more effective and credible, we need to identify a limited number of 'composite' indicators, which naturally summarize most relevant food-related information contained in the specific predictors of food crisis. Considering the chronology of the food production and consumption chain, three composite indicators specific to three different stages of the chain have been identified. The satellite data based Normalized Deviation of Vegetative Index (NDVI), prices of major food grains, and malnutrition rates are found to be correlated not only with the quality and quantity of inputs of this process but also with the final outcome. Both NDVI and price data are widely used as important predictors of food crisis by famine warning systems. What we have demonstrated is that improved sensitivity of the indicators is likely to be due to their inherent capability of summarizing information from various specific measures. Child malnutrition rates also summarize inputs and outputs of the food consumption process very effectively, and therefore should be able to predict community level food crisis in an efficient manner. The empirical results confirm this conjecture by showing that malnutrition rates can predict food crisis probability three months into the future with a high degree of specificity. The use of 'composite' indicators not only simplifies the problem of aggregation, but is also likely to yield forecasts that are highly specific and sensitive.     

Entitlements, coping mechanisms and indicators of access to food: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

Vulnerability to famine and traditional responses to food insecurity in Wollo Region, Ethiopia are described. The timeliness of anthropometric and socio-economic indicators of access to food is then assessed, using data collected in Wollo by Save the Children Fund during 1987–88, a period of drought and subsequent food insecurity. The movements of different indicators are then examined for evidence of correspondence at sub-district level. The author concludes that although anthropometric status does not respond as early as crop yield or grain price, a deterioration in anthropometric status is detectable at a stage when livestock and migration indicators show little or no change and mortality rate remains unaffected. At sub-district level, changes in different indicators are not well-correlated.     

The persian famine of 1870-1872: prices and politics

By whatever definitions one cares to classify food shortages and deaths resulting from lack of food, there can be little semantic difficulty in recognising a catastrophic famine in Persia (Iran) in the early 1870s. This paper briefly examines the famine in its natural, political and socio-economic context. Fluctuations in prices and in the supply of essential commodities responded primarily to weather conditions, but this response was exaggerated and in some instances triggered directly by actions in the political and economic sphere.     

National organizations and famine early warning the case of mali(1)

In the Sahelian countries of West Africa, the problems of drought and famine are sufficiently long term to justify the existence of permanent food security agencies. Yet donors are reluctant to fund these agencies when there is not a crisis, forcing poor countries to use their own resources for food security and famine early warning efforts. To make more effective use of limited resources and since the data needs for effective famine early warning are similar to those for basic rural development, information systems to provide data simultaneously for development projects and famine early warning should be developed and supported. In Mali, one of the larger and poorer countries of the West African Sahel, basic information systems which gather a range of appropriate data already exist, but there need to be improvements in the quality of design and the timeliness of analysis to make the information more useful for either development or famine early warning.     

Interviews with Key Informants and Household Surveys: Central Ethiopia

Nutrition surveillance as part of, or complement to, the famine early warning system in Ethiopia has been used to collect reports on local food security from community leaders using structured interviews. As this information is crucial in the interpretation of other quantitative data, it is important to assess the extent to which leaders' information reflects the food related behaviour of the community. Information on various socio-economic variables related to nutrition were collected at the household level and at the community level through structured interviews with householders and community leaders. The information given by householders and by community leaders was compared. In general the correspondence between the two was good and the continued collection of local information from local leaders justified. There were a few topics on which information might be missed using only the local leader and ways to improve collecting this information are discussed.     

The Food and Nutrition Surveillance Systems of Chad and Mali: The "SAP" After Two Years

The "Systèmes d'Alerte Précoce" - the SAPs - of Chad and Mali have been in operation since April 1986. Their purpose is to forecast (or more realistically, detect as early as possible) food shortages in the drought-prone areas of each country. They are based on a multidisciplinary strategy, taking into account all relevant phenomena, from meteorology to nutritional status, and are implemented through the governmental networks. The present experience shows that, compared with the devastations due to famine and the cost of emergency food aid, they are not that expensive and they seem sustainable over the long term.
"Faultless" prediction is not yet the rule, but several procedures permit progressive improvement in the ability of the systems to analyse and interpret.
This paper explains the functioning process of the SAPs and presents several operational results. Additionally, it covers innovative concepts that have proved to be successful, such as the "participative information network".     

Reducing vulnerability to drought and famine: developmental approaches to relief

In this paper we present salient lessons learned through the International Relief/Development Project about the relationships between disasters and development. We discuss approaches to famine response and prevention, including the impact of global food distribution efforts on the capacities of people affected by famine and offer criteria for planning famine relief so that it will promote systemic, long term development of these capacities. We first describe a collaborative research project which showed that it is possible for international famine assistance either to promote the capacities of people who suffer from famine so that they are better able to handle future food crises, or to leave those it purports to help worse off and even more vulnerable to subsequent disasters. We then illustrate alternative strategies for promoting development in the midst of crisis by presenting information about a number of famine response programs and analyzing their impact on capacities and vulnerabilities.     

Social Contract and Deterring Famine: First Thoughts

The links between certain kinds of political systems and protection against famine are investigated in this paper. The starting-point is a critique of Amartya Sen's observation that famines are unknown in countries with a free press and competitive elections. This holds true only in India because of a unique political history in which freedom from famine became a right, upon which political legitimacy was founded: an anti-famine 'social contract'.
The rise and decline of anti-famine systems in Africa is charted. Major reasons for decay include neo-liberalism and the international humanitarian system, both of which undermine relationships of domestic political accountability that underpin effective famine prevention. A number of politically regressive tendencies in 'actually existing humanitarianism' are identified that work against any nascent anti-famine social contracts in Africa. This is possible because famine prevention has not been established as a right in Africa.     

Famine intensity and magnitude scales: a proposal for an instrumental definition of famine

Ambiguities in current usage of the term "famine" have had tragic implications for response and accountability in a number of recent food crises. This paper proposes a new approach to defining famine based on the use of intensity and magnitude scales, where "intensity" refers to the severity of the crisis at a given location and point in time, while "magnitude" describes the aggregate impact of a crisis. The scales perform three operations on "famine": first, moving from a binary conception of "famine/no famine" to a graduated, multi-level definition; second, disaggregating the dimensions of intensity and magnitude; and third, assigning harmonised "objective" criteria in place of subjective, case-by-case judgements. If adopted, the famine scales should contribute to more effective and proportionate responses, as well as greater accountability in future food crises.     

III A Disaster for Whom?: Local Interests and International Donors During Famine Among the Dinka of Sudan

The 1985–88 famine amongst the Dinka is described and shown to have been rooted in the long term exploitation of the south by northern Sudanese and international interests. This process of exploitation served, and continues to serve, important functions for particular groups. Some of the ways in which the 1985–88 famine was functional – for the central government, the army and merchants – are outlined and the implications for relief operations considered. It is argued that international donors had considerable "room for manoeuvre" which they could have used to adopt more effective policies. They only did so after the worst of the mortality was over.     

Malnutrition and Poverty in the Early Stages of Famine: North Darfur, 1988–90

In this article we report findings on the relationship between malnutrition and poverty during a period of acute food insecurity in Darfur, Sudan. Children of rich and poor families were equally likely to be malnourished, which is explained in terms of people's responses to the threat of famine. This finding has important implications for targeting interventions in the early stages of famine. Appropriate interventions at the early stages of famine are livelihood and income support to the most vulnerable. The entitlement theory of famine causation assumes that the poor are most vulnerable, and become malnourished and die during famines. In this article we show that this assumption does not hold. Even though poverty is the root cause of malnutrition, it does not follow that anthropometric status can be used to target individual poor families, or even that targeting the poor is appropriate in famine situations.     

Diagnosis of famine: a discursive contribution

This paper recommends the incorporation of an additional discursive dimension in famine diagnosis that draws on the number of reports referring to famine in the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)'s ReliefWeb database. Present‐day diagnostic tools already apply the principle of triangulation with multiple indicators; the addition of a discursive diagnostic dimension would enable even more refined analysis, allowing more forcefully for the incorporation of the aspect of change. The newly devised discursive famine indices are used both to identify famines—in Ethiopia (2000), Malawi (2002), and Somalia (2011)—and to analyse key socioeconomic determinants of famine. The study finds that income (or poverty) together with state fragility appear to be the major determinants of cross‐country variations in famine reporting, while political regimes do not appear to have any independent effect. The indices appear largely robust with regard to concerns about cross‐country, semantic, and temporal biases.     

广东省台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性分析——模糊数学方法

给出了台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性的定义,应用模糊综合评价方法提供了计算台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性的评估模式,进而探讨了脆弱性的空间分布状况,并将其应用于广东省台风暴潮灾害的脆弱性评估,所提方法可以较好地综合多种社会经济因素对台风暴潮灾害的影响.     

Desertification, refugees and regional conflict in west Africa

This article documents the potential for inter-state conflict in the migration of hundreds of thousands of famine refugees across international borders in West Africa. Nigeria and Ghana, for example, have to deal not only with the effects of land degradation in their northern territories but also with the influx of famine victims from Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkino Faso. These migrations put an enormous extra burden on the fragile and already overstretched social and economic infrastructures of the host countries. The construction of dams for irrigation and electricity generation in international river basins, is another cause of inter-state conflict related to land degradation. The capacity of West African states to find peaceful solutions to these problems is being undermined by the increasing impoverishment and marginalisation of their populations. A self-serving neo-colonialist governing elite is caught in the economic stranglehold of the advanced capitalist nations. While there is thus no short term solution to the problem of land degradation, immediate steps should at least be taken to give legal protection to those who are forced to cross international borders because of drought and famine.     

The resilience of households to famine in el fasher, Sudan, 1982-89

This paper examines issues related to famine resilience and describes the results of a survey of households who migrated from famine affected rural communities in Northern Darfur to the provincial capital, El Fasher, in western Sudan. It reveals that asset wealth did not enhance household resilience to famine; rather, the data indicate that households who reportedly practiced more numerous survival strategies before migrating to El Fasher were on the whole able to stay longer in their villages before migrating. The data also suggest that some households might have been better able to endure the deteriorating rural conditions by participating in intra-communal practices of sharing resources. An additional issue influencing the timing of migration to El Fasher is previous familiarity with the economic opportunities in the provincial capital.     

Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

The African food crisis of 1982-1986*

The crisis cannot be attributed to any one cause, but rather it was the product of a number of interacting factors whose precise combination varied between countries. Drought, internal political and economic factors and an unfavourable external economic environment were significant contributory factors. Civil war and externally financed insurgency were primarily responsible for propelling a food crisis into a famine in four out of the six worst affected countries. Within the literature, there is a tendency for writers to emphasize the relative contribution of factors within their own disciplines. So far the literature on the responses, both within country and internationally, is comprised of eye witness accounts by journalists and evaluations by aid agencies of their performance. The international response by governments and the public was massive and unprecedented, but the response by governments, indigenous NGO's and the public within affected countries is often overlooked by the journalistic literature. Generalizations about "the African food crisis" have obscured the considerable diversity amongst countries. This is well illustrated by the experiences of Ethiopia, Kenya and Botswana. This diversity indicates the biased perspectives that arise from focussing on the extreme famines, as in Ethiopia. Research priorities should include studies of systems that coped during the crisis, historical analysis of the crisis, the way early warning information is processed within bureaucratic institutions, environmental degradation and fully integrated analysis of food production and consumption systems.     

Entitlements and the Wollo Famine of 1982–1985

The traglic recent events in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa have again foccussed attention on the different anaytical approaches to the problems iof famine. Perhaps the most important analytical contribution to this field has been Sen's "entitlements approach." One of the case studies Sen used to articulate this approach was of the 1972–1973 famine in Wollo Province, Ethiopia. This article provides a provisional assessment of the famine process in the Wollo during 1982–1985 to set against the analysis by Sen of the earlier famine. Some striking contrasts are revealed.     

Nutritional Assessments, Food Security and Famine

The widely held view that malnutrition is a late indicator of famine is challenged on the basis of evidence that people often deliberately reduce their food intake as an early response to inadequate food security. This broadens the possible interventions in response to high malnutrition rates to include measures to support livelihoods under threat of collapse. In the late stages of famine, social disruption and distress migration often result in a degraded health environment which may raise the threshold of nutritional status associated with an increased mortality risk. It is important to assess the underlying causes of malnutrition and the associated health risks. At present, the main objective of nutrition surveys is usually to obtain a reliable estimate of the prevalence of malnutrition among children under five years of age, with little analysis of the underlying causes of malnutrition. Experience from the 1984-85 famine in Darfur led to the development of an alternative approach to nutritional assessment which could be applicable elsewhere in Africa. The combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was particularly valuable as a means of gaining a wider and deeper understanding of the nature of the nutritional situation.     

Foodgrain disposals as early warning famine signals: A case from Burkina Faso*

Recent research suggests that monitoring key events in social, economic, cultural and political systems may provide more timely, frequent, and reliable warnings of impending famine than monitoring physical processes alone. But empirical data on early warning distress signals in these arenas are slim. Based on anthropological investigations in a southern Volta Noire community of Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta) during the drought of 1983–1984, this paper outlines a variety of possible early warning signals in disposal systems for staple foodgrains - the nutritional “bottom line” for farmers and herders in the West African savannah. Pre-famine distress signals in five broad categories are discussed: changes in marketing patterns, non-market exchanges, dietary practices, utilization of agricultural and pastoral labour, and ideological and sociopolitical behaviours. Data consist of both quantitative and qualitative comparisons of cereal disposals in these categories between 1983 and preceding years.