FLOODPLAINS AND HOUSING VALUES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FLOOD MITIGATION PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT: The hedonic valuation method was used to quantify the impact of floodplain location on housing values in Fargo‐Moor‐head. Being located in the 100‐year floodplain lowered the home values by $8,990, and such homes were worth $10,241 less than similar homes located outside the floodplain before the major flood event of 1997. Required flood insurance premiums for these homes were determined to account for approximately 81 percent of this price depreciation. In contrast, homes in the 500‐year floodplain were worth $3,100 more than similar homes not in the floodplain. It was concluded that more disclosure is needed regarding the location of the 500‐year floodplain, and that the hedonic valuation method can be used to calculate the economic gains and losses associated with flood mitigation projects or floodplain remapping efforts that result in the reclassification of the legal floodplain status of individual homes.     

Evaluating Aggregate Terrestrial Impacts of Road Construction Projects for Advanced Regional Mitigation

This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.     

Examining Hazard Mitigation Within the Context of Public Goods

/ This paper presents a case study of an American barrier island devastated by a hurricane to show how it is addressing the free-riding problem and protecting its public goods, thereby contributing to hazard mitigation. It examines hazard mitigation and the free-riding problem within the public goods framework. Free-riding is a term used in the public choice theory and common pool resource literature. It is a term used for describing the actions of rational individuals who freely exploit a collective or public good at the expense of others. Free-riding is a major problem faced by public goods. The problem very frequently occurs in the context of hazard mitigation and coastal resource management. Very little is known about the factors that contribute to the promotion of hazard mitigation. This paper identifies some of the important factors that help local institutions provide and sustain hazard mitigation measures. Theoretical and practical implications for hazards research and disaster management policy are presented.     

Managing the potential public health risks from bioaerosol liberation at commercial composting sites in the UK: An analysis of the evidence base

The diversion of biodegradable waste from landfill is of key importance in developing a sustainable waste strategy for the next decade and beyond. The proliferation of waste treatment technologies such as Mechanical Biological Treatment, Anaerobic Digestion and Composting will be paramount in achieving this strategic goal. This paper evaluates the scientific information needed to undertake an effective assessment of the potential public health risks from exposure to bioaerosols in the vicinity of commercial composting activities. Knowledge gaps currently exist in the scientific and regulatory community that limit our ability to effectively characterise source-term emissions, develop reliable dose–response data and accurately model the dispersion of bioaerosols. Consequently reliable risk estimates cannot be developed to inform the management of these potential risks. This uncertainty may prove a barrier to progress in achieving waste diversion and composting targets in Wales and the rest of the UK. A robust and extensive evidence base is required to inform the risk assessment process. This paper advocates the need for further, more focussed research into hazard characterisation of viable and non-viable organisms, improved dose–response data, exposure assessment techniques and an evaluation of the existing risk control and mitigation measures currently adopted. It is hoped that his will enable effective, timely and proportional risk management and mitigation measures to be developed that will foster the confidence required in composting technologies to achieve waste diversion targets and develop sustainable waste strategies.     

Non-linear incentives,plan design,and flood mitigation: the case of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's community rating system

A basic proposition of ‘agency theory’ is that output-based performance incentives encourage greater effort. However, studies find that incentive schemes can distort effort if rewards for performance are discrete or non-linear. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Community Rating System (CRS) is a flood mitigation programme with a non-linear incentive design. Under this programme, localities are incentivised to implement a mix of 18 flood mitigation activities. Each activity is performance scored, with accumulated scores corresponding to a percent discount on flood insurance premiums for residents that hold National Flood Insurance policies. Discounts range from 0 to 45% and increase discretely in increments of 5%. With multivariate statistical and Geographic Information Systems analytic techniques, tests are made to find whether observed changes in annual CRS scores for participating localities in Florida are explained by non-linear incentives, adjusting for hydrologic conditions, flood disaster histories, socio-economic and human capital controls that can plausibly account for local mitigation activity scores over time. Results indicate that local jurisdictions are discount-seeking, with mitigation efforts partially driven by the non-linear incentive design of the CRS programme. The paper ends with recommendations to improve the operation FEMA's flood mitigation programme.     

Avoided deforestation as a greenhouse gas mitigation tool: economic issues

Tropical deforestation is a significant contributor to accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. GHG emissions from deforestation in the tropics were in the range of 1 to 2 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1990s, which is equivalent to as much as 25% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. While there is growing interest in providing incentives to avoid deforestation and consequently reduce net carbon emissions, there is limited information available on the potential costs of these activities. This paper uses a global forestry and land use model to analyze the potential marginal costs of reducing net carbon emissions by avoiding deforestation in tropical countries. Our estimates suggest that about 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) of emissions reductions could be obtained over the next 30 to 50 yr for $5 per Mg C, and about 1.6 Pg C yr(-1) could be obtained over the same time frame for $100 per Mg C. In addition, the effects of carbon incentives on land use could be substantial. Relative to projected baseline conditions, we find that there would be around 3 million additional hectares (ha) of forestland in 2055 at $5 per Mg C and 422 million ha at $100 per Mg C. Estimates of reductions in area deforested, GHG mitigation potential, and annual land rental payments required are presented, all of which vary by region, carbon price paid, and time frame of mitigation.     

Adaptive Management of Stream Channel Maintenance at Bridge Crossings in the Northern Tier Region,Pennsylvania1

Abstract: An adaptive management framework is applied to the problem of identifying mitigation measures for sediment deposition near bridge crossings in small streams in the Northern Tier region of northern Pennsylvania. The presence of the rigid bridge infrastructure introduces a challenge for applying adaptive management practices, because the integrity of the bridge structure itself has to be maintained regardless of the mitigation practices used in the stream channel near the bridge. In an effort to overcome the unacceptable risk that field‐scale adaptive management experiments present to rigid bridge infrastructure, an adaptive management approach for laboratory‐scale experimentation of mitigation methods at bridge crossings in the Northern Tier region is presented as a way to decrease the level of uncertainty about channel response to mitigation measures and increase the rate of learning about the effectiveness of these measures. Four cycles of adaptive management experiments are discussed to demonstrate that this approach results in fast and efficient learning about channel response to mitigation methods for the given conditions. The value of monitoring and of assessment of monitored data in the overall efficiency of the adaptive management approach is highlighted. Assessment of what was learned in the adaptive management experiment cycles presented here leads to new directions to continually improve management policies and practices in stream channels at bridge crossings in the Northern Tier region. The adaptive management process, rather than continuing with a normally risk‐averse management approach, results in opportunities for learning new information about a system’s response.     

Strategic Environmental Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in the Canadian Agricultural Sector

This article presents a methodological framework for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) application. The overall objective is to demonstrate SEA as a systematic and structured policy, plan, and program (PPP) decision support tool. In order to accomplish this objective, a stakeholder-based SEA application to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy options in Canadian agriculture is presented. Using a mail-out impact assessment exercise, agricultural producers and nonproducers from across the Canadian prairie region were asked to evaluate five competing GHG mitigation options against 13 valued environmental components (VECs). Data were analyzed using multi-criteria and exploratory analytical techniques. The results suggest considerable variation in perceived impacts and GHG mitigation policy preferences, suggesting that a blanket policy approach to GHG mitigation will create gainers and losers based on soil type and associate cropping and on-farm management practices. It is possible to identify a series of regional greenhouse gas mitigation programs that are robust, socially meaningful, and operationally relevant to both agricultural producers and policy decision makers. The assessment demonstrates the ability of SEA to address, in an operational sense, environmental problems that are characterized by conflicting interests and competing objectives and alternatives. A structured and systematic SEA methodology provides the necessary decision support framework for the consideration of impacts, and allows for PPPs to be assessed based on a much broader set of properties, objectives, criteria, and constraints whereas maintaining rigor and accountability in the assessment process.     

基于环境污染责任保险的环境风险评估研究进展

环境风险评估是环境污染责任保险制度实施和应用的重要环节,是一种为投保人和承保人量化环境风险的方法,量化结果是保险公司厘定保费的重要参考依据。随着环境污染责任保险的发展和推广,构建适用于环境污染责任保险的环境风险评估体系逐渐成为当前的研究热点之一,但目前针对环境污染责任保险环境风险评估缺乏深入系统的研究与总结。在已有研究基础上,本文进一步明确环境污染责任保险环境风险评估内涵及特征,并对其评估体系进行科学界定,简要评述当前环境污染责任保险环境风险评估的相关研究主题,并在已有模型和方法基础上构建环境污染责任保险环境风险评估的理论框架,最后在总结当前研究不足的前提下,探讨未来环境污染责任保险环境风险评估的研究趋势,为环境污染责任保险的实施和应用提供思路和参考。     

Insurance sector management of climate change adaptation in three Nordic countries: the influence of policy and market factors

The insurance industry is important for facilitating climate change adaptation. Insurance companies’ involvement is, however, influenced by national adaptation policy. The literature suggests that especially policy factors – government interventions, political priorities and public–private cooperation – and market factors – cost offset, cost mitigation, planning flexibility and business opportunities – shape private actor approaches. To increase the understanding of insurance company involvement in adaptation, this study examines how insurance companies’ approaches are influenced by policy and market factors in three countries: Denmark, Norway and Sweden. The study found that the policy factors tested significantly shaped the approaches of the companies assessed, while market factors currently appear less influential. This is likely due to the absence of climate risk and adaptation in political debates and among insurance policyholders. The study discusses the potential role of the insurance industry in adaptation governance and suggests how barriers facing insurance companies could be overcome.     

Risk-adequate motor underwriting of automated vehicles: a qualitative evaluation using German focus groups

The advent of automated vehicles is already taking place and will significantly disrupt the motor insurance industry. The shift from the human driver to the system as the driver cannot be reflected in the current insurance risk assessment. This call for an amendment of the insurance underwriting was discussed with German experts from both the primary insurance and reinsurance sector with their professional background on motor insurance. Based on the findings, we propose an alternative method to underwrite automated vehicles of level 4 & 5 using an enhanced telematics approach which considers new risk categories such as systems used and the transformed role of the driver as the general user of the automated vehicle.

     

PROFILE: Wetland Mitigation Banking: A Framework for Crediting and Debiting

Biological Report 88(41):1–103), assessment of credits and determination of a compensation ratio that reflects existing and/or potential functional condition in a mitigation bank has been a formidable task. This study presents a framework for a systematic approach for determination of credits and debits and subsequently the compensation ratio. A model for riparian systems is developed based on this framework that evaluates credits and debits for spatial and structural diversity, contiguity of habitats, invasive vegetation, hydrology, topographic complexity, characteristics of flood-prone areas, and biogeochemical processes. The goal of developing this crediting and debiting framework is to provide an alternative to the current methods of determining credits and debits in a mitigation bank and assigning mitigation ratios, such as best professional judgement or use of preset ratios. The purpose of this crediting and debiting framework is to develop a method that (1) can be tailored to evaluate ecological condition based on the target resources of a specific mitigation bank, (2) is flexible enough to be used for evaluation of existing or potential ecologic condition at a mitigation bank, (3) is a structured and systematic way to apply data and professional judgment to the decision-making process, (4) has an ecologically defensible basis, (5) has ease of use such that the level of expertise and time required to employ the method is not a deterrent to its application, and (6) provides a semiquantitative measure of the condition of aquatic resources that can be translated to a mitigation ratio.     

Problems and Prospects in Local Environmental Assessment: Lessons from the United States

Local environmental assessment (EA), mandated by five US states, has introduced complex management issues for practitioners and policy makers. Based on a review of statutes, case law, and prior EA evaluations,this paper outlines three key issue areas for local EA: linking comprehensive planning and EA; making the threshold determination process more certain; and balancing mitigation with public participation. The paper argues that all the issues reflect a central tension in environmentalassessment between procedural consistency and the need for contingent responses to conditions that differ among the projects to be reviewed.     

Towards global climate change mitigation: assessment of an afforestation option for Nigeria

This paper assesses the potential of an intensive afforestation program as a measure of reducing the atmospheric concentration of carbon in Nigeria. The results presented are based on the recently completed Nigerian Country Studies Program on Climate Change Mitigation. A comprehensive mitigation analysis process (COMAP) model was employed to carry out detailed cost/benefit evaluation of the mitigation option. The end-use based scenario adopted was considered the most appropriate strategy to sustainably implement the mitigation option in Nigeria.The analyses showed that the country could significantly reduce net carbon emission while at the same time meet all her essential domestic wood needs, if approximately 7.5×10⁶ ha of wasteland could be committed to an afforestation program over the 40 year period of projection. The initial cost of establishing such forest plantations, taking cognisance of the opportunity cost of land averaged at about US$500/ha, or in carbon terms, a unit cost of about $13 per tonne of carbon. In terms of carbon flow, if all the end-product based plantations considered (i.e. fuelwood, poles, pulpwood, sawlogs and veneer) were fully established and maintained, it was estimated that by the year 2030, the total carbon stored in the afforested land would be about 638.0×10⁶ t of carbon with an annual incremental rate of 16.0×10⁶ t of carbon. Other economic indicators (i.e. net present value of benefits, present value of costs and benefit for reduced atmospheric carbon) when evaluated showed that the afforestation option could be economically viable even when the investment capital was discounted at rates ranging from 9 to 33 percent for different wood products. It should be noted, however that implementation of such a program would require huge sums of money and a high degree of commitment on the part of Federal, State and Local governments if the associated financial, social and environmental benefits were to be derived.     

Estimating the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation in Kazakhstan

As part of the studies related to the obligations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Republic of Kazakhstan started activities to inventory greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and assess of GHG mitigation options. The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the possibility of mitigating GHG emissions and determine the mitigation priorities. It presents a compilation of the possible options and their assessment in terms of major criteria and implementation feasibility. Taking into account the structure of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan in 1990, preliminary estimates of the potential for mitigation are presented for eight options for the energy sector and agriculture and forestry sector. The reference scenario prepared by expert assessments assumes a reduction of CO₂ emissions in 1996–1998 by about 26% from the 1990 level due to general economic decline, but then emissions increase. It is estimated that the total potential for the mitigation of CO₂ emissions for the year 2000 is 3% of the CO₂ emissions in the reference scenario. The annual reduction in methane emissions due to the estimated options can amount to 5%–6% of the 1990 level.

     

PLANNING FOR DROUGHT: MOVING FROM CRISIS TO RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Severe drought is a recurring problem for the United States, as illustrated by widespread economic, social, and environmental impacts. Recent drought episodes and the widespread drought conditions in 1996, 1998, and 1999 emphasized this vulnerability and the need for a more proactive, risk management approach to drought management that would place greater emphasis on preparedness planning and mitigation actions. Drought planning has become a principal tool of states and other levels of government to improve their response to droughts. For example, since 1982, the number of states with drought plans has increased from 3 to 29. Many local governments have also adopted drought or water shortage plans. Unfortunately, most state drought plans were established during the 1980s and early 1990s and emphasize emergency response or crisis management rather than risk management. This paper presents a substantive revision of a 10‐step drought planning process that has been applied widely in the United States and elsewhere. The revised planning process places more weight on risk assessment and the development and implementation of mitigation actions and programs. The goal of this paper is to encourage states to adopt this planning process in the revision of existing drought plans or, for states without plans, in the development of new plans.     

Household-level preferences for mitigation of Prosopis juliflora invasion in the Afar region of Ethiopia: a contingent valuation

Prosopis juliflora, which is an alien tree species in Ethiopia, has invaded over 360,500 ha of land in the Afar region of the country and is threatening pastoral livelihoods. We conducted a contingent valuation study to assess rural households’ willingness to contribute in cash and labor to mitigate P. juliflora invasion in three districts of Afar. Results show that about 84% of the respondents prefer an intervention involving complete eradication of P. juliflora. The lower and upper bound median willingness to contribute to this intervention were 9.97 and 13.42 USD/household/year in cash and 30 and 43 days/household/year in labor. Off-farm income and P. juliflora invasion levels on pasturelands are among the factors affecting willingness to contribute to the mitigation of P. juliflora invasion. Incentives to local people and having a proper institutional setup that involves local culture and institutions are important for mobilizing people on a voluntary basis for mitigation of P. juliflora invasion.     

A framework for evaluation of flood management strategies

The resulting impact of disasters on society depends on the affected country's economic strength prior to the disaster. The larger the disaster and the smaller the economy, the more significant is the impact. This is clearest seen in developing countries, where weak economies become even weaker afterwards. Deliberate strategies for the sharing of losses from hazardous events may aid a country or a community in efficiently using scarce prevention and mitigation resources, thus being better prepared for the effects of a disaster. Nevertheless, many governments lack an adequate institutional system for applying cost effective and reliable technologies for disaster prevention, early warnings, and mitigation. Modelling by event analyses and strategy models is one way of planning ahead, but these models have so far not been linked together. An approach to this problem was taken during a large study in Hungary, the Tisza case study, where a number of policy strategies for spreading of flood loss were formulated. In these strategies, a set of parameters of particular interest were extracted from interviews with stakeholders in the region. However, the study was focused on emerging economies, and, in particular, on insurance strategies. The scope is now extended to become a functional framework also for developing countries. In general, they have a higher degree of vulnerability. The paper takes northern Vietnam as an example of a developing region. We identify important parameters and discuss their importance for flood strategy formulations. Based on the policy strategies in the Tisza case, we extract data from the strategies and propose a framework for loss spread in developing and emerging economies. The parameter set can straightforwardly be included in a simulation and decision model for policy formulation and evaluation, taking multiple stakeholders into account.     

The ambiguity of federalism in climate policy-making: how the political system in Austria hinders mitigation and facilitates adaptation

Although the impacts of federalism on environmental policy-making are still contested, many policy analysts emphasise its advantages in climate policy-making. This applies to the mitigation of climate change, in particular when federal governments (as in the U.S.) are inactive. More recently, federalism is also expected to empower sub-national actors in adapting to local impacts of climate change. The present paper analyses the role federalism in Austria played in greening the decentralised building sector (relevant for mitigation) on the one hand, and in improving regional flood risk management (relevant for adaptation) on the other. In line with the so-called matching school of the environmental federalism research strand we conclude that Austrian federalism proved to be more appropriate for regional flood protection than for mitigating climate change. We highlight that it is not federalism per se but federalism embedded in various contextual factors that shape environmental policy-making. Among these factors are the spatial scale of an environmental problem, the nitty-gritty of polity systems, and national politics (such as federal positions on climate change mitigation).     

An Environmental Kuznets Curve for N2O emissions in Germany: an ARDL approach

This paper analyses the relationship between nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, economic growth, agricultural land used and exports in Germany. We use time‐series data between 1970 and 2012 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology to test for cointegration in the long run. Results show that there is a quadratic long run relationship between N₂O emissions and economic growth, confirming the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for Germany. Agricultural land area affects N₂O emissions positively, whereas exports affect emissions negatively. The turning point is $27,880, which is within the sample and implies that Germany is in the decreasing part of the curve of environmental degradation. The paper shows that, contrary to testing the EKC in less developed countries, mitigation of N₂O emissions does not negatively affect growth in Germany. As such, it is feasible to undertake any conservative policy in order to reduce emissions without major consequences on economic sectors.