Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

A model for the CO2 capture potential

Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, and the consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce the CO₂ emissions.Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO₂ emissions, but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO₂ emissions on a shorter time scale.A model to calculate the CO₂ capture potential has been developed, and it is estimated that 25 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally, 236 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO₂ emissions by 54% in the EU and 33% globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today.Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate. Therefore, the strategy to achieve the necessary CO₂ emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, and (3) wide implementation of CCS.     

Large-scale utilization of biomass energy and carbon dioxide capture and storage in the transport and electricity sectors under stringent CO2 concentration limit scenarios

Large-scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems are a potentially large contributor to meeting global climate policy targets by the end of the century. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. A key aspect of the research presented here is that the costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are explicitly incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120–160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced globally by midcentury and 200–250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the majority source, along with growing utilization of waste-to-energy. The ability to draw on a diverse set of biomass-based feedstocks helps to reduce the pressure for drastic large-scale changes in land use and the attendant environmental, ecological, and economic consequences those changes would unleash. In terms of the conversion of bioenergy feedstocks into value added energy, this paper demonstrates that biomass is and will continue to be used to generate electricity as well as liquid transportation fuels. A particular focus of this paper is to show how climate policies and technology assumptions – especially the availability of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies – affect the decisions made about where the biomass is used in the energy system. The potential for net-negative electric sector emissions through the use of CCS with biomass feedstocks provides an attractive part of the solution for meeting stringent emissions constraints; we find that at carbon prices above $150/tCO₂, over 90% of biomass in the energy system is used in combination with CCS. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, it is a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO₂ from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. CCS is also used heavily with other fuels such as coal and natural gas, and by 2095 a total of 1530 GtCO₂ has been stored in deep geologic reservoirs. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer–Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels as two representative conversion processes and shows that both technologies may be important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics.     

Energy and carbon dioxide intensity of Thailand's steel industry and greenhouse gas emission projection toward the year 2050

The purpose of this article is to study the energy and carbon dioxide intensities of Thailand's steel industry and to propose greenhouse gas emission trends from the year 2011 to 2050 under plausible scenarios. The amount of CO₂ emission from iron and steel production was calculated using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines in the boundary of production process (gate to gate). The results showed that energy intensity of semi-finished steel product was 2.84 GJ/t semi-finished steel and CO₂ intensity was 0.37 tCO_2eq/t semi-finished steel. Energy intensity of steel finishing process was 1.86 GJ/t finished steel and CO₂ intensity was 0.16 tCO_2eq/t finished steel. Using three plausible scenarios from Thailand's steel industry, S1: without integrated steel plant (baseline scenario), S2: with a traditional integrated BF–BOF route and S3: with an alternative integrated DR-EAF route; the Greenhouse Gas emissions from the year 2011 to 2050 were projected. In 2050, the CO₂ emission from S1 (baseline scenario) was 4.84 million tonnes, S2 was 21.96 million tonnes increasing 4.54 times from baseline scenario. The CO₂ emission from S3 was 7.12 million tonnes increasing 1.47 times from baseline scenario.     

Electricity systems with near-zero emissions of CO2 based on wind energy and coal gasification with CCS and hydrogen storage

Emissions from electricity generation will have to be reduced to near-zero to meet targets for reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions. Variable renewable energy sources such as wind will help to achieve this goal but they will have to be used in conjunction with other flexible power plants with low-CO₂ emissions. A process which would be well suited to this role would be coal gasification hydrogen production with CCS, underground buffer storage of hydrogen and independent gas turbine power generation. The gasification hydrogen production and CO₂ capture and storage equipment could operate at full load and only the power plants would need to operate flexibly and at low load, which would result in substantial practical and economic advantages. This paper analyses the performances and costs of such plants in scenarios with various amounts of wind generation, based on data for power demand and wind energy variability in the UK. In a scenario with 35% wind generation, overall emissions of CO₂ could be reduced by 98–99%. The cost of abating CO₂ emissions from the non-wind residual generation using the technique proposed in this paper would be less than 40% of the cost of using coal-fired power plants with integrated CCS.     

Feasibility of storing CO2 in the Utsira formation as part of a long term Dutch CCS strategy: An evaluation based on a GIS/MARKAL toolbox

This study provides insight into the feasibility of a CO₂ trunkline from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation in the Norwegian part of the North Sea, which is a large geological storage reservoir for CO₂. The feasibility is investigated in competition with CO₂ storage in onshore and near-offshore sinks in the Netherlands. Least-cost modelling with a MARKAL model in combination with ArcGIS was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the trunkline as part of a Dutch greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy for the Dutch electricity sector and CO₂ intensive industry. The results show that under the condition that a CO₂ permit price increases from €25 per tCO₂ in 2010 to €60 per tCO₂ in 2030, and remains at this level up to 2050, CO₂ emissions in the Netherlands could reduce with 67% in 2050 compared to 1990, and investment in the Utsira trunkline may be cost-effective from 2020–2030 provided that Belgian and German CO₂ is transported and stored via the Netherlands as well. In this case, by 2050 more than 2.1 GtCO₂ would have been transported from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation. However, if the Utsira trunkline is not used for transportation of CO₂ from Belgium and Germany, it may become cost-effective 10 years later, and less than 1.3 GtCO₂ from the Netherlands would have been stored in the Utsira formation by 2050. On the short term, CO₂ storage in Dutch fields appears more cost-effective than in the Utsira formation, but as yet there are major uncertainties related to the timing and effective exploitation of the Dutch offshore storage opportunities.     

Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO₂ emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO₂ removal from the atmosphere and of CO₂ absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.     

The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

The potential for increased atmospheric CO2 emissions and accelerated consumption of deep geologic CO2 storage resources resulting from the large-scale deployment of a CCS-enabled unconventional fossil fuels industry in the U.S.

Desires to enhance the energy security of the United States have spurred renewed interest in the development of abundant domestic heavy hydrocarbon resources including oil shale and coal to produce unconventional liquid fuels to supplement conventional oil supplies. However, the production processes for these unconventional fossil fuels create large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and this remains one of the key arguments against such development. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies could reduce these emissions and preliminary analysis of regional CO₂ storage capacity in locations where such facilities might be sited within the U.S. indicates that there appears to be sufficient storage capacity, primarily in deep saline formations, to accommodate the CO₂ from these industries. Nevertheless, even assuming wide-scale availability of cost-effective CO₂ capture and geologic storage resources, the emergence of a domestic U.S. oil shale or coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry would be responsible for significant increases in CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. The authors present modeling results of two future hypothetical climate policy scenarios that indicate that the oil shale production facilities required to produce 3 MMB/d from the Eocene Green River Formation of the western U.S. using an in situ retorting process would result in net emissions to the atmosphere of between 3000 and 7000 MtCO₂, in addition to storing potentially 900–5000 MtCO₂ in regional deep geologic formations via CCS in the period up to 2050. A similarly sized, but geographically more dispersed domestic CTL industry could result in 4000–5000 MtCO₂ emitted to the atmosphere in addition to potentially 21,000–22,000 MtCO₂ stored in regional deep geologic formations over the same period. While this analysis shows that there is likely adequate CO₂ storage capacity in the regions where these technologies are likely to deploy, the reliance by these industries on large-scale CCS could result in an accelerated rate of utilization of the nation's CO₂ storage resource, leaving less high-quality storage capacity for other carbon-producing industries including electric power generation.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS UNCERTAINTY FOR WATER RESOURCES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: A climate change impacts assessment for water resources in the San Joaquin River region of California is presented. Regional climate projections are based on a 1 percent per year CO₂ increase relative to late 20th Century CO₂ conditions. Two global projections of this CO₂ increase scenario are considered (HadCM2 and PCM) during two future periods (2010 to 2039 and 2050 to 2079). HadCM2 projects faster warming than PCM. HadCM2 and PCM project wetter and drier conditions, respectively, relative to present climate. In the HadCM2 case, there would be increased reservoir inflows, increased storage limited by existing capacity, and increased releases for deliveries and river flows. In the PCM case, there would be decreased reservoir inflows, decreased storage and releases, and decreased deliveries. Impacts under either projection case cannot be regarded as more likely than the other. Most of the impacts uncertainty is attributable to the divergence in the precipitation projections. The range of assessed impacts is too broad to guide selection of mitigation projects. Regional planning agencies can respond by developing contingency strategies for these cases and applying the methodology herein to evaluate a broader set of CO₂ scenarios, land use projections, and operational assumptions. Improved agency access to climate projection information is necessary to support this effort.     

Modeling the impacts of climate policy on the deployment of carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage across electric power regions in the United States

This paper summarizes the results of a first-of-its-kind holistic, integrated economic analysis of the potential role of carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) technologies across the regional segments of the United States (U.S.) electric power sector, over the time frame 2005–2045, in response to two hypothetical emissions control policies analyzed against two potential energy supply futures that include updated and substantially higher projected prices for natural gas. This paper's detailed analysis is made possible by combining two specialized models developed at Battelle: the Battelle CO₂-GIS to determine the regional capacity and cost of CO₂ transport and geologic storage; and the Battelle Carbon Management Electricity Model, an electric system optimal capacity expansion and dispatch model, to examine the investment and operation of electric power technologies with CCS against the background of other options. A key feature of this paper's analysis is an attempt to explicitly model the inherent heterogeneities that exist in both the nation's current and future electricity generation infrastructure and in its candidate deep geologic CO₂ storage formations. Overall, between 180 and 580 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired integrated gasification combined cycle with CCS (IGCC + CCS) capacity is built by 2045 in these four scenarios, requiring between 12 and 41 gigatonnes of CO₂ (GtCO₂) storage in regional deep geologic reservoirs across the U.S. Nearly all of this CO₂ is from new IGCC + CCS systems, which start to deploy after 2025. Relatively little IGCC + CCS capacity is built before that time, primarily under unique niche opportunities. For the most part, CO₂ emissions prices will likely need to be sustained at over $20/tonne CO₂ before CCS begins to deploy on a large scale within the electric power sector. Within these broad national trends, a highly nuanced picture of CCS deployment across the U.S. emerges. Across the four scenarios studied here, power plant builders and operators within some North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) regions do not employ any CCS while other regions build more than 100 GW of CCS-enabled generation capacity. One region sees as much as 50% of its geologic CO₂ storage reservoirs’ total theoretical capacity consumed by 2045, while most of the regions still have more than 90% of their potential storage capacity available to meet storage needs in the second half of the century and beyond. A detailed presentation of the results for power plant builds and operation in two key regions: ECAR in the Midwest and ERCOT in Texas, provides further insight into the diverse set of economic decisions that generate the national and aggregate regional results.     

Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050

This study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 3.67 GtCO₂ year⁻¹ in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand years around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO₂ storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.     

Comparison of carbon capture and storage with renewable energy technologies regarding structural,economic, and ecological aspects in Germany

For the option of “carbon capture and storage”, an integrated assessment in the form of a life cycle analysis and a cost assessment combined with a systematic comparison with renewable energies regarding future conditions in the power plant market for the situation in Germany is done.The calculations along the whole process chain show that CCS technologies emit per kWh more than generally assumed in clean-coal concepts (total CO₂ reduction by 72–90% and total greenhouse gas reduction by 65–79%) and considerable more if compared with renewable electricity. Nevertheless, CCS could lead to a significant absolute reduction of GHG-emissions within the electricity supply system.Furthermore, depending on the growth rates and the market development, renewables could develop faster and could be in the long term cheaper than CCS based plants.Especially, in Germany, CCS as a climate protection option is phasing a specific problem as a huge amount of fossil power plant has to be substituted in the next 15 years where CCS technologies might be not yet available. For a considerable contribution of CCS to climate protection, the energy structure in Germany requires the integration of capture ready plants into the current renewal programs. If CCS retrofit technologies could be applied at least from 2020, this would strongly decrease the expected CO₂ emissions and would give a chance to reach the climate protection goal of minus 80% including the renewed fossil-fired power plants.     

中国工业园区低碳发展路径研究

中国政府承诺CO₂排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。在工业部门深化应对气候变化和全面推进绿色转型的背景下,数量庞大的工业园区已然成为"十四五"乃至今后一个时期工业领域实现科学、精准碳减排的关键靶点。本研究首先剖析了中国工业园区低碳发展面临的挑战与机遇;进而以2015年为基准年,面向2035和2050年美丽中国建设两阶段战略目标,研究提出了工业园区碳减排的目标、路径和潜力,以期为园区深化低碳发展提供决策参考。研究显示,2015年中国工业园区CO₂排放总量约为28亿吨,占全国总排放量的31%。通过产业结构调整、能效提升、能源结构优化、碳捕集等低碳路径,2015-2050年全国园区预期可减排CO₂ 18亿吨,在2015年基础上减排60%以上;其中,2015-2035年减排8亿吨,2035-2050年减排10亿吨。     

Long-term global availability of steel scrap

Primary steelmaking involves CO₂-intensive processes, but the expansion of secondary steel production is limited by the global availability of steel scrap. The present work examines global scrap consumption in the past (1870–2012) and future scrap availability (2013–2050) based on the historical trend. The results reveal that (i) historically, the consumption of old scrap has been insufficient compared with the amounts of discarded steel, and (ii) based on historical scrap consumption, the future availability of scrap will not be sufficient to satisfy the two assumed cases of steel demand. Primary steelmaking is expected to remain the dominant process, at least up until 2050. Under the reference-demand case of 2.19 billion tons in crude steel production by 2050, the total production of pig iron and direct reduced iron could reach 1.35 billion tons. Consumption of old scrap could reach 0.76 billion tons. Because the availability of scrap will be limited in the context of the global total, it is important to research and develop innovative low-carbon technologies for primary steelmaking and to explore their economic viability if we are to aim for achieving large reductions in CO₂ emissions from the iron and steel industry.     

对燃油征税的区域能源环境影响研究:以中国为例

控制汽柴油消费对中国的能源安全和环境保护有着重要意义.燃油税和碳税是中国近期两种主要的已经或可能施加于燃油的税收政策.以自回归分布滞后模型为核心,本研究构建了一个燃油税和碳税的区域能源环境影响评估模型.利用模型估计了我国的燃油需求价格弹性,测算了燃油需求响应,计算了在相同CO2减排目标下,提高汽油消费税、提高柴油消费税、引入碳税三种政策情景下各省份预计产生的节能效应、减排效应和税收效益.研究结果显示,在相同的CO2减排目标下,第一,在不同情景下,各省份节能程度差异均有限,但节能数量均体现出区域匹配性,燃油消费越多的省份,节能数量一般越多,且提高汽油消费税的全国节能总量最大;第二,在引入碳税情景下,各省份CO2减排比例差异最小;第三,在全国层面,三种政策情景中空气污染物(PM2.5和NOx和SO2)减排数量均为提高汽油消费税>引入碳税>提高柴油消费税,但在提高柴油消费税情景下,有4/5的省份预计PM2.5排放减少程度超过14%.除此之外,提高汽油消费税的税收收益最大.     

CO2 emissions in calcium carbide industry: An analysis of China's mitigation potential

China's calcium carbide output has dominated the global market for several years, driven by the demand for PVC (polyvinyl chloride), a fundamental polymer material and also the primary downstream product of calcium carbide in China. The fast growth of this energy-intensive industry leads to an inevitable increase in CO₂ emissions. However, there is a large reduction potential with process improvement in this industry which is currently characterized by widespread outdated facilities. In this study, we attempt to assess the reduction potential of CO₂ emissions in China's calcium carbide production, based on the analysis of CO₂ emission patterns and estimation of the emission amount. Three scenarios regarding process improvement are employed to conduct this assessment. The results imply that the cumulative CO₂ abatement in the Current Policy Scenario and in the Strengthened Policy Scenario from 2008 to 2020, compared with the Baseline Scenario, are 89.0 and 107.6 million t, respectively. The specific measures and policy implications to achieve this potential are also discussed in the article.     

The gloomy greenhouse: Should the world phase out fossil fuels?

In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO₂ emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of CO₂ concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective. It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect.