The acceptability of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in Europe: An assessment of the key determining factors: Part 1. Scientific,technical and economic dimensions

The ACCSEPT project, which ran from January 2006 to December 2007, identified and analysed the main factors which have been influencing the emergence of CO₂ capture and geological storage (CCS) within the European Union (EU). The key clusters of factors concern science and technology, law and regulation, economics, and social acceptance. These factors have been analysed through interviews, a large-scale questionnaire conducted in 2006, and discussions in two stakeholder workshops (2006 and 2007). In Part I of this paper, we aim to distil the key messages and findings with regards to scientific, technical, legal and economic issues. There are no compelling scientific, technical, legal, or economic reasons why CCS could not be widely deployed in the forthcoming decades as part of a package of climate change mitigation options. In order to facilitate this deployment, governments at both the EU and Member State levels have an important role to play, in particular in establishing a robust and transparent legal framework (e.g. governing long-term environmental liability) and a strong policy framework providing sufficient and long-term incentives for CCS and CO₂ transportation networks.     

Demonstrations of coal-fired oxy-fuel technology for carbon capture and storage and issues with commercial deployment

As one of the three major carbon capture technologies associated with carbon capture and storage (CCS), oxy-fuel technology is currently undergoing rapid development with a number of international demonstration projects of scale 10–30 MW_e having commenced and units with a scale of 250–300 MW_e emerging in the progression towards commercialisation. Industrial scale testing of coal combustion and burners is also being conducted by technology vendors.The paper details the current international status of the technology; the contributions of current demonstrations; and a roadmap for commercial deployment.At its current state of maturity oxy-fuel technology may be considered semi-commercial, in that even if a unit was economically viable and could be provided by a vendor, the generator and vendor would need to share the technical risk. This is because guarantees could not at present be provided for operating characteristics associated with mature technologies such as reliability, emissions, ramp rate and spray control. This is due to the maturity of the technology associated with the capability of vendors and associated design and operational uncertainties, associated with a lack of plant experience at scale.The projected development of oxy-fuel technology for first-generation plant is provided, using an ASU for oxygen supply, standard furnace designs with externally recirculated flue gas, and limited thermal integration of the ASU and compression plant with the power plant. Potential features of second generation technology are listed.Listed issues delaying deployment indicate that market, economic, legal and issues of public acceptance are more significant than technical barriers.     

Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050

This study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 3.67 GtCO₂ year⁻¹ in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand years around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO₂ storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.     

From research to action: Now we have to move on CCS communication

With rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), a portfolio of mitigation options is deemed essential as we transition to a low carbon economy. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one technology that has the potential to mitigate large amounts of CO₂ and governments around the world, along with industry and researchers working in the technology space, are excited by this. However, the technology still remains relatively unknown in the minds of most lay citizens and is therefore less well accepted than more traditional forms of power generation. This paper reviews a number of CCS communication research activities that have been undertaken internationally since 2002 and synthesizes them into a logical roadmap of activities. The paper also examines the common strengths and weaknesses of the research activities and makes a number of suggestions for industry representatives and policy makers. The paper also outlines a way to segment stakeholder groups for all communication activities into four target audiences including: influential others; community; education and project specific activities.     

Experts’ attitudes towards CCS technologies in Spain

This paper presents the results from a survey on experts’ attitudes towards the development of CCS technologies in Spain. This is the first study carried out in Spain intending to report an empirical analysis of stakeholder perceptions on the risks, challenges and barriers facing CCS deployment. Results show a positive attitude towards CCS implementation in Spain. Experts are concerned about the suitability of storage sites, safety and capture costs. They tend to support CCS as a bridging solution to climate change, and have a general low level of perceived risk from CCS. Experts’ risk perception is influenced, to some extent, by general values and beliefs as well as by sociodemographics and, to a lesser extent, by group membership.     

Geological storage of CO2 in saline aquifers—A review of the experience from existing storage operations

The experience from CO₂ injection at pilot projects (Frio, Ketzin, Nagaoka, US Regional Partnerships) and existing commercial operations (Sleipner, Snøhvit, In Salah, acid-gas injection) demonstrates that CO₂ geological storage in saline aquifers is technologically feasible. Monitoring and verification technologies have been tested and demonstrated to detect and track the CO₂ plume in different subsurface geological environments. By the end of 2008, approximately 20 Mt of CO₂ had been successfully injected into saline aquifers by existing operations. Currently, the highest injection rate and total storage volume for a single storage operation are approximately 1 Mt CO₂/year and 25 Mt, respectively. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is to be an effective option for decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, commercial-scale storage operations will require orders of magnitude larger storage capacity than accessed by the existing sites. As a result, new demonstration projects will need to develop and test injection strategies that consider multiple injection wells and the optimisation of the usage of storage space. To accelerate large-scale CCS deployment, demonstration projects should be selected that can be readily employed for commercial use; i.e. projects that fully integrate the capture, transport and storage processes at an industrial emissions source.     

Economic evaluation of the geological storage of CO2 considering the scale of economy

CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology is expected to play an important role in the efforts directed toward long-term CO₂ emission reduction. This paper analyzes the cost of the geological storage of CO₂ in Japan in order to consider future research, development and deployment (RD&D); these would be based on the information of the obtained cost structure. According to the analysis results, the costs, particularly those of the transportation by pipeline and of CO₂ injection, strongly depend on the scale of the facilities. Therefore, the distance of the transportation of CO₂ should be minimized in the case of small-scale storage, particularly in Japan. In addition, the potential injection rate per well is another key factor for the injection cost. Based on the analyzed cost, the injection cost of the geological storage of CO₂ in Japan for individual storage sites is estimated, and the cost–potential curve is obtained. A mixed-integer programming model has been developed to take into account these characteristics of the CCS technology and its adverse effects arising from the scale of economy with regard to the transportation and injection cost for the geological storage of CO₂. The model is designed to evaluate CCS and other CO₂ mitigation technologies in the energy systems of Japan. With all these adverse effects due to the scale of economy, the geological storage of CO₂ will be one of the important options for CO₂ emission reduction in Japan.     

Public perceptions of CCS: Emergent themes in pan-European focus groups and implications for communications

This paper reports on European public perceptions of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as determined through six focus groups, one held in each of the UK, the Netherlands, Poland, Germany, Belgium and Spain. The development of opinion and the emergence of concerns were observed via phased exposure to a specially commissioned film providing an overview of CCS technology, its rationale and associated debates, supplemented by additional information on national energy mixes. In general there was a high level of commonality in opinion and concerns across the six countries, with only minor differences. The concerns that emerged were not allayed by the information provided. On the contrary, there was evidence of a shift from initial uncertainty about CCS to negative positions. CCS was generally perceived as an uncertain, end-of-pipe technology that will perpetuate fossil-fuel dependence. Noting the political context to CCS, we conclude that advocates will likely find the European public opinion context a challenging one in which to achieve deployment, particularly for onshore storage, except where local communities perceive real economic or other benefits to CCS.     

The acceptability of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in Europe: An assessment of the key determining factors: Part 2. The social acceptability of CCS and the wider impacts and repercussions of its implementation

In Part 1, we presented the findings of the EU ACCSEPT project (2006–2007) with regards to scientific, technical, legal and economic issues. In Part 2, we present the analysis of social acceptability on the part of both the lay public and stakeholders. We examine the acceptability of CO₂ capture and geological storage (CCS) within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. The debate over the inclusion of CCS within the CDM is caught-up in a set of complex debates that are partly technical and partly political and, therefore, difficult, and time-consuming, to resolve. We explore concerns that support for CCS will detract from support for other low-carbon energy sources. We can find no evidence that support for CCS is currently detracting from support for renewable energy sources, though it is probably too early to detect such an effect. Efforts at understanding, engaging with, and communicating to, the lay public and wider stakeholder community (not just business) in Europe are currently weak and inadequate, despite well-meaning statements from governments and industry.     

Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.     

Regulatory challenges and managing public perception in planning a geological storage pilot project in Australia

The implementation of geological storage of CO₂ requires not only further research and development but also the demonstration of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology as a viable option. A pilot program is an important first step towards building industry and community confidence in the application of CCS. The Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC), Australia's leading research organisation in CCS, has initiated a comprehensive research and demonstration program in the Otway Basin in South-West Victoria. As the first project of its kind in Australia, the Otway Basin Pilot Project (OBPP) has faced a number of regulatory and organisational challenges while having to concurrently address public perception. The Otway Basin site with its natural CO₂ accumulations and many depleted natural gas fields offers an appropriate CO₂ storage site to test scientific and regulatory concepts and evaluate public response through social research. The project aims to show that CO₂ can be safely captured, transported and stored deep underground under local conditions, and also monitored and verified. Planning has been ongoing for over a year, baseline studies are underway and the project is targeted to start injection in 2007.     

Lay perceptions of carbon capture and storage technology

The extent of social acceptance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is likely to significantly influence the sustainable development of CO₂ storage projects. Acceptance of CCS by the key stakeholders (policy makers, the general public, the media and the local community), linked to specific projects, as well as how the technology is communicated about and perceived by the public, have become matters of interest for the social sciences. This article reports on an investigation of the public perception of CCS technology in Spain. Individuals’ views on CCS are analysed through focus groups with lay citizens using “stimulus materials”. As the analysis shows, lay views of CCS differ significantly from the views of decision-makers and experts. Public concerns and reactions to CCS technology and potential projects, as well as the degree of consensus on its acceptance or rejection are detailed. Implications for the future use of CCS are discussed.     

Accelerating the deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies by strengthening the innovation system

In order to take up the twin challenge of reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, while meeting a growing energy demand, the potential deployment of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies is attracting a growing interest of policy makers around the world. In this study we evaluate and compare national approaches towards the development of CCS in the United States, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands, and Australia. The analysis is done by applying the functions of innovation systems approach. This approach posits that new technology is developed, demonstrated and deployed in the context of a technological innovation system. The performance assessment of the CCS innovation system shows that the extensive knowledge base and knowledge networks, which have been accumulated over the past years, have not yet been utilized by entrepreneurs to explore the market for integrated CCS concepts linked to power generation. This indicates that the build-up of the innovation system has entered a critical phase that is decisive for a further thriving development of CCS. In order to move the CCS innovation system through this present difficult episode and deploy more advanced CCS concepts at a larger scale; it is necessary to direct policy initiatives at the identified weak system functions, i.e. entrepreneurial activity, market creation and the mobilization of resources. Moreover, in some specific countries it is needed to provide more regulatory guidance and improve the legitimacy for the technology. We discuss how policy makers and technology managers can use these insights to develop a coherent policy strategy that would accelerate the deployment of CCS.     

Regulatory challenges to the implementation of carbon capture and geological storage within the European Union under EU and international law

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is a relatively new technology in the context of climate change mitigation strategies, and its legal and regulatory implications are not yet broadly understood. This paper takes a brief look at international environmental law principles relevant to CCS, identifies key environmental and safety risks associated with the technology, and highlights significant legal frameworks that pose challenges to the implementation of CCS within the EU under EU and international law. It then notes continuing regulatory gaps that will need to be addressed for large-scale CCS to take place. The paper concludes that the clear inclusion or exclusion of CCS activities from the range of relevant legal frameworks will increase transparency, provide regulatory certainty and ultimately facilitate CCS in appropriate contexts.     

The value of post-combustion carbon dioxide capture and storage technologies in a world with uncertain greenhouse gas emissions constraints

By analyzing how the largest CO₂ emitting electricity-generating region in the United States, the East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement (ECAR), responds to hypothetical constraints on greenhouse gas emissions, the authors demonstrate that there is an enduring role for post-combustion CO₂ capture technologies. The utilization of pulverized coal generation with carbon dioxide capture and storage (PC + CCS) technologies is particularly significant in a world where there is uncertainty about the future evolution of climate policy and in particular uncertainty about the rate at which the climate policy will become more stringent. The paper's analysis shows that within this one large, heavily coal-dominated electricity-generating region, as much as 20–40 GW of PC + CCS could be operating before the middle of this century. Depending upon the state of PC + CCS technology development and the evolution of future climate policy, the analysis shows that these CCS systems could be mated to either pre-existing PC units or PC units that are currently under construction, announced and planned units, as well as PC units that could continue to be built for a number of decades even in the face of a climate policy. In nearly all the cases analyzed here, these PC + CCS generation units are in addition to a much larger deployment of CCS-enabled coal-fueled integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plants. The analysis presented here shows that the combined deployment of PC + CCS and IGCC + CCS units within this one region of the U.S. could result in the potential capture and storage of between 3.2 and 4.9 Gt of CO₂ before the middle of this century in the region's deep geologic storage formations.     

Progress on including CCS projects in the CDM: Insights on increased awareness,market potential and baseline methodologies

The inclusion of CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) in the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is still subject to controversy and discussion. A myriad of barriers prevents CCS in the CDM. Apart from political barriers, economic, social and procedural barriers play a role. This paper discusses relevant new results on the human capacity, procedural feasibility and economic potential of CCS in the CDM. The conclusions of a capacity building effort in Africa show that awareness and knowledge are low but that capacity building efforts are well received. A reality check on methodologies for hypothetical CCS projects shows that most of the issues can be resolved, and the CDM institutional arrangements can accommodate CCS. A bottom-up estimate of the potential of natural gas processing CCS in the CDM, based on a previously proprietary database from the oil and gas industry, suggests that there is an annual potential of about 174 MtCO₂ in 2020 in that sector. Most of that potential can be realized at CER prices between $20 and $30/tCO₂ but there is no sign of flooding the CDM market with cheap credits from CCS projects. Despite these results and more open information, the CCS and CDM debate, progress in the negotiations on CCS in the CDM is slow and there is no clear view on a solution.     

The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

Environmental bonds and the challenge of long-term carbon sequestration

The potential to capture carbon from industrial sources and dispose of it for the long-term, known as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), is widely recognized as an important option to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. Specifically, CCS has the potential to provide emissions cuts sufficient to stabilize greenhouse gas levels, while still allowing for the continued use of fossil fuels. In addition, CCS is both technologically-feasible and commercially viable compared with alternatives with the same emissions profile. Although the concept appears to be solid from a technical perspective, initial public perceptions of the technology are uncertain. Moreover, little attention has been paid to developing an understanding of the social and political institutional infrastructure necessary to implement CCS projects. In this paper we explore a particularly dicey issue--how to ensure adequate long-term monitoring and maintenance of the carbon sequestration sites. Bonding mechanisms have been suggested as a potential mechanism to reduce these problems (where bonding refers to financial instruments used to ensure regulatory or contractual commitments). Such mechanisms have been successfully applied in a number of settings (e.g., to ensure court appearances, completion of construction projects, and payment of taxes). The paper examines the use of bonding to address environmental problems and looks at its possible application to nascent CCS projects. We also present evidence on the use of bonding for other projects involving deep underground injection of materials for the purpose of long-term storage or disposal.     

Effective EU and Member State policies for stimulating CCS

Although CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is widely recognised as an option to mitigate climate change, consistent and effective EU policies to advance CCS are still absent. This paper discusses policy instruments for advancing large-scale deployment of CCS in the European Union, and evaluates them in a multi-criteria analysis. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) is a cost-effective instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions, but it is questionable whether its currently limited time horizon and short-trading periods will lead to substantial CCS diffusion. Complementary policies at the EU and the Member State level may repair this and provide sufficient incentives for CCS. Potential policies include financial instruments such as investment subsidies, a feed-in scheme, or a CO₂ price guarantee, as well as a CCS mandate or a low-carbon portfolio. These policy options differ with respect to their environmental effectiveness, possible interaction with the EU-ETS, costs and financial risk involved, and their competition with other mitigation options. Interactions between Member State policies and the EU-ETS are smaller in scope than those of EU-wide policies, but they are more likely to lead to displacement of financial resources from other low-carbon technologies. In addition, national policies may pose a significant part of the financial risk of CCS operations with Member States, reducing the operator's incentive to innovate. Overall, structural policies at the EU level, such as a mandate or a low-carbon portfolio standard would be more conducive for realising large-scale deployment of CCS across the EU as well as more acceptable to environmental organisations.     

Electricity systems with near-zero emissions of CO2 based on wind energy and coal gasification with CCS and hydrogen storage

Emissions from electricity generation will have to be reduced to near-zero to meet targets for reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions. Variable renewable energy sources such as wind will help to achieve this goal but they will have to be used in conjunction with other flexible power plants with low-CO₂ emissions. A process which would be well suited to this role would be coal gasification hydrogen production with CCS, underground buffer storage of hydrogen and independent gas turbine power generation. The gasification hydrogen production and CO₂ capture and storage equipment could operate at full load and only the power plants would need to operate flexibly and at low load, which would result in substantial practical and economic advantages. This paper analyses the performances and costs of such plants in scenarios with various amounts of wind generation, based on data for power demand and wind energy variability in the UK. In a scenario with 35% wind generation, overall emissions of CO₂ could be reduced by 98–99%. The cost of abating CO₂ emissions from the non-wind residual generation using the technique proposed in this paper would be less than 40% of the cost of using coal-fired power plants with integrated CCS.