Regulatory challenges and managing public perception in planning a geological storage pilot project in Australia

The implementation of geological storage of CO₂ requires not only further research and development but also the demonstration of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology as a viable option. A pilot program is an important first step towards building industry and community confidence in the application of CCS. The Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC), Australia's leading research organisation in CCS, has initiated a comprehensive research and demonstration program in the Otway Basin in South-West Victoria. As the first project of its kind in Australia, the Otway Basin Pilot Project (OBPP) has faced a number of regulatory and organisational challenges while having to concurrently address public perception. The Otway Basin site with its natural CO₂ accumulations and many depleted natural gas fields offers an appropriate CO₂ storage site to test scientific and regulatory concepts and evaluate public response through social research. The project aims to show that CO₂ can be safely captured, transported and stored deep underground under local conditions, and also monitored and verified. Planning has been ongoing for over a year, baseline studies are underway and the project is targeted to start injection in 2007.     

Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.     

The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

Economic evaluation of the geological storage of CO2 considering the scale of economy

CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology is expected to play an important role in the efforts directed toward long-term CO₂ emission reduction. This paper analyzes the cost of the geological storage of CO₂ in Japan in order to consider future research, development and deployment (RD&D); these would be based on the information of the obtained cost structure. According to the analysis results, the costs, particularly those of the transportation by pipeline and of CO₂ injection, strongly depend on the scale of the facilities. Therefore, the distance of the transportation of CO₂ should be minimized in the case of small-scale storage, particularly in Japan. In addition, the potential injection rate per well is another key factor for the injection cost. Based on the analyzed cost, the injection cost of the geological storage of CO₂ in Japan for individual storage sites is estimated, and the cost–potential curve is obtained. A mixed-integer programming model has been developed to take into account these characteristics of the CCS technology and its adverse effects arising from the scale of economy with regard to the transportation and injection cost for the geological storage of CO₂. The model is designed to evaluate CCS and other CO₂ mitigation technologies in the energy systems of Japan. With all these adverse effects due to the scale of economy, the geological storage of CO₂ will be one of the important options for CO₂ emission reduction in Japan.     

Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

Dynamis CO2 quality recommendations

In the carbon capture and storage (CCS) chain, transport and storage set different requirements for the composition of the gas stream mainly containing carbon dioxide (CO₂). Currently, there is a lack of standards to define the required quality for CO₂ pipelines. This study investigates and recommends likely maximum allowable concentrations of impurities in the CO₂ for safe transportation in pipelines. The focus is on CO₂ streams from pre-combustion processes. Among the issues addressed are safety and toxicity limits, compression work, hydrate formation, corrosion and free water formation, including the cross-effect of H₂S and H₂O and of H₂O and CH₄.     

Effective retrofitting of post-combustion CO2 capture to coal-fired power plants and insensitivity of CO2 abatement costs to base plant efficiency

Existing coal-fired power plants were not designed to be retrofitted with carbon dioxide post-combustion capture (PCC) and have tended to be disregarded as suitable candidates for carbon capture and storage on the grounds that such a retrofit would be uneconomical. Low plant efficiency and poor performance with capture compared to new-build projects are often cited as critical barriers to capture retrofit. Steam turbine retrofit solutions are presented that can achieve effective thermodynamic integration between a post-combustion CO₂ capture plant and associated CO₂ compressors and the steam cycle of an existing retrofitted unit for a wide range of initial steam turbine designs. The relative merits of these capture retrofit integration options with respect to flexibility of the capture system and solvent upgradability will be discussed. Provided that effective capture system integration can be achieved, it can be shown that the abatement costs (or cost per tonne of CO₂ to justify capture) for retrofitting existing units is independent of the initial plant efficiency. This then means that a greater number of existing power plants are potentially suitable for successful retrofits of post-combustion capture to reduce power sector emissions. Such a wider choice of retrofit sites would also give greater scope to exploit favourable site-specific conditions for CCS, such as ready access to geological storage.     

Large-scale utilization of biomass energy and carbon dioxide capture and storage in the transport and electricity sectors under stringent CO2 concentration limit scenarios

Large-scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems are a potentially large contributor to meeting global climate policy targets by the end of the century. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. A key aspect of the research presented here is that the costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are explicitly incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120–160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced globally by midcentury and 200–250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the majority source, along with growing utilization of waste-to-energy. The ability to draw on a diverse set of biomass-based feedstocks helps to reduce the pressure for drastic large-scale changes in land use and the attendant environmental, ecological, and economic consequences those changes would unleash. In terms of the conversion of bioenergy feedstocks into value added energy, this paper demonstrates that biomass is and will continue to be used to generate electricity as well as liquid transportation fuels. A particular focus of this paper is to show how climate policies and technology assumptions – especially the availability of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies – affect the decisions made about where the biomass is used in the energy system. The potential for net-negative electric sector emissions through the use of CCS with biomass feedstocks provides an attractive part of the solution for meeting stringent emissions constraints; we find that at carbon prices above $150/tCO₂, over 90% of biomass in the energy system is used in combination with CCS. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, it is a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO₂ from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. CCS is also used heavily with other fuels such as coal and natural gas, and by 2095 a total of 1530 GtCO₂ has been stored in deep geologic reservoirs. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer–Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels as two representative conversion processes and shows that both technologies may be important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics.     

The potential for increased atmospheric CO2 emissions and accelerated consumption of deep geologic CO2 storage resources resulting from the large-scale deployment of a CCS-enabled unconventional fossil fuels industry in the U.S.

Desires to enhance the energy security of the United States have spurred renewed interest in the development of abundant domestic heavy hydrocarbon resources including oil shale and coal to produce unconventional liquid fuels to supplement conventional oil supplies. However, the production processes for these unconventional fossil fuels create large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and this remains one of the key arguments against such development. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies could reduce these emissions and preliminary analysis of regional CO₂ storage capacity in locations where such facilities might be sited within the U.S. indicates that there appears to be sufficient storage capacity, primarily in deep saline formations, to accommodate the CO₂ from these industries. Nevertheless, even assuming wide-scale availability of cost-effective CO₂ capture and geologic storage resources, the emergence of a domestic U.S. oil shale or coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry would be responsible for significant increases in CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. The authors present modeling results of two future hypothetical climate policy scenarios that indicate that the oil shale production facilities required to produce 3 MMB/d from the Eocene Green River Formation of the western U.S. using an in situ retorting process would result in net emissions to the atmosphere of between 3000 and 7000 MtCO₂, in addition to storing potentially 900–5000 MtCO₂ in regional deep geologic formations via CCS in the period up to 2050. A similarly sized, but geographically more dispersed domestic CTL industry could result in 4000–5000 MtCO₂ emitted to the atmosphere in addition to potentially 21,000–22,000 MtCO₂ stored in regional deep geologic formations over the same period. While this analysis shows that there is likely adequate CO₂ storage capacity in the regions where these technologies are likely to deploy, the reliance by these industries on large-scale CCS could result in an accelerated rate of utilization of the nation's CO₂ storage resource, leaving less high-quality storage capacity for other carbon-producing industries including electric power generation.     

Accelerating the deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies by strengthening the innovation system

In order to take up the twin challenge of reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, while meeting a growing energy demand, the potential deployment of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies is attracting a growing interest of policy makers around the world. In this study we evaluate and compare national approaches towards the development of CCS in the United States, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands, and Australia. The analysis is done by applying the functions of innovation systems approach. This approach posits that new technology is developed, demonstrated and deployed in the context of a technological innovation system. The performance assessment of the CCS innovation system shows that the extensive knowledge base and knowledge networks, which have been accumulated over the past years, have not yet been utilized by entrepreneurs to explore the market for integrated CCS concepts linked to power generation. This indicates that the build-up of the innovation system has entered a critical phase that is decisive for a further thriving development of CCS. In order to move the CCS innovation system through this present difficult episode and deploy more advanced CCS concepts at a larger scale; it is necessary to direct policy initiatives at the identified weak system functions, i.e. entrepreneurial activity, market creation and the mobilization of resources. Moreover, in some specific countries it is needed to provide more regulatory guidance and improve the legitimacy for the technology. We discuss how policy makers and technology managers can use these insights to develop a coherent policy strategy that would accelerate the deployment of CCS.     

A geostatistical and probabilistic spectral image processing methodology for monitoring potential CO2 leakages on the surface

Remote sensing has demonstrated success in various environmental applications over the past three decades. This is largely attributed to its ability for good areal coverage and continued development in sensor technologies. Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is an emerging climate change mitigation technology where monitoring is vital for its sustainability. This research investigates the use of spectral remote sensing imagery in detecting potential CO₂ occurrences at the surface, should a leakage occur from subsurface reservoirs where CO₂ is stored. Currently, there are no known leakages of CO₂ at industrial storage sites, therefore, this research was carried out at the Latera natural analogue site in Italy, in order to develop the methodology described. This paper describes the use of a popular probabilistic information fusion theory, referred to as the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence, to analyse outlier pixels (anomalies). Outlier pixels are first determined using a new geostatistical image filtering methodology based on Intrinsic Random Function (IRF), Independent Component Analysis (ICA), and the industry standard parametric Reed–Xiaoli (RX) anomaly detection. Information fusion of detected outlier pixels and indirect surface effects of CO₂ leakage over time, such as stressed vegetation or mineral alterations, assigns a confidence measure per outlier pixel in order to identify potential leakage points. After visual validation using direct field measurements, it was demonstrated that the proposed methodology is able to detect majority of the seepage points at Latera, and holds promise as a new unsupervised CO₂ monitoring methodology.     

Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty

As monitoring is essential for the proper management of geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the ability to value information from monitoring is indispensable to adequately design a monitoring program. It is necessary to judge whether the expected improvement in management is worth the cost of monitoring. The value of information (VOI) is closely related to the possible increase in expected utility gained by gathering the information, the concept of which can be applied to such judgement. Although VOI analysis has been extensively studied in the context of decision analysis, its application to the management of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) operations is rare. This paper introduces and discusses the methodology of VOI analyses in the context of monitoring CO₂ storage. A motivating problem with discrete probabilities is used to illustrate the concept of VOI. It is demonstrated that information is not always of value; for information to be worthwhile, monitoring under uncertainty must satisfy certain conditions. This concept is then extended to continuous probability distributions. The effects of prior uncertainty and information reliability on the VOI are examined. It is shown that an excessive improvement in information accuracy yields little value and that the optimal level of reliability can be inferred. VOI analyses provide quantitative insights into the value of information-gathering activities and therefore can be an objective means to adequately design and impartially justify a monitoring program.     

Pathways towards large-scale implementation of CO2 capture and storage: A case study for the Netherlands

We sketch four possible pathways how carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) (r)evolution may occur in the Netherlands, after which the implications in terms of CO₂ stored and avoided, costs and infrastructural requirements are quantified. CCS may play a significant role in decarbonising the Dutch energy and industrial sector, which currently emits nearly 100 Mt CO₂/year. We found that 15 Mt CO₂ could be avoided annually by 2020, provided some of the larger gas fields that become available the coming decade could be used for CO₂ storage. Halfway this century, the mitigation potential of CCS in the power sector, industry and transport fuel production is estimated at maximally 80–110 Mt CO₂/year, of which 60–80 Mt CO₂/year may be avoided at costs between 15 and 40 €/t CO₂, including transport and storage. Avoiding 30–60 Mt CO₂/year by means of CCS is considered realistic given the storage potential represented by Dutch gas fields, although it requires planning to assure that domestic storage capacity could be used for CO₂ storage. In an aggressive climate policy, avoiding another 50 Mt CO₂/year may be possible provided that nearly all capture opportunities that occur are taken. Storing such large amounts of CO₂ would only be possible if the Groningen gas field or large reservoirs in the British or Norwegian part of the North Sea will become available.     

Intermediate storage of carbon dioxide in geological formations: A technical perspective

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) through CO₂ flooding has been practiced on a commercial basis for the last 35 years and continues today at several sites, currently injecting in total over 30 million tons of CO₂ annually. This practice is currently exclusively for economic gain, but can potentially contribute to the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases provided it is implemented on a large scale. Optimal operations in distributing CO₂ to CO₂-EOR or enhanced gas recovery (EGR) projects (referred to here collectively as CO₂-EHR) on a large scale and long time span imply that intermediate storage of CO₂ in geological formations may be a key component. Intermediate storage is defined as the storage of CO₂ in geological media for a limited time span such that the CO₂ can be sufficiently reproduced for later use in CO₂-EHR. This paper investigates the technical aspects, key individual parameters and possibilities of intermediate storage of CO₂ in geological formations aiming at large scale implementation of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) for deep emission reduction. The main parameters are thus the depth of injection and density, CO₂ flow and transport processes, storage mechanisms, reservoir heterogeneity, the presence of impurities, the type of the reservoirs and the duration of intermediate storage. Structural traps with no flow of formation water combined with proper injection planning such as gas-phase injection favour intermediate storage in deep saline aquifers. In depleted oil and gas fields, high permeability, homogeneous reservoirs with structural traps (e.g. anticlinal structures) are good candidates for intermediate CO₂ storage. Intuitively, depleted natural gas reservoirs can be potential candidates for intermediate storage of carbon dioxide due to similarity in storage characteristics.     

CO2 capture and storage from a bioethanol plant: Carbon and energy footprint and economic assessment

Biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can lead to a net removal of atmospheric CO₂. This paper investigates environmental and economic performances of CCS retrofit applied to two mid-sized refineries producing ethanol from sugar beets. Located in the Region Centre France, each refinery has two major CO₂ sources: fermentation and cogeneration units. “carbon and energy footprint” (CEF) and “discounted cash flow” (DCF) analyses show that such a project could be a good opportunity for CCS early deployment. CCS retrofit on fermentation only with natural gas fired cogeneration improves CEF of ethanol production and consumption by 60% without increasing much the non renewable energy consumption. CCS retrofit on fermentation and natural gas fired cogeneration is even more appealing by decreasing of 115% CO₂ emissions, while increasing non renewable energy consumption by 40%. DCF shows that significant project rates of return can be achieved for such small sources if both a stringent carbon policy and direct subsidies corresponding to 25% of necessary investment are assumed. We also underlined that transport and storage cost dilution can be realistically achieved by clustering emissions from various plants located in the same area. On a single plant basis, increasing ethanol production can also produce strong economies of scale.     

An engineering-economic model of pipeline transport of CO2 with application to carbon capture and storage

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) involves the capture of CO₂ at a large industrial facility, such as a power plant, and its transport to a geological (or other) storage site where CO₂ is sequestered. Previous work has identified pipeline transport of liquid CO₂ as the most economical method of transport for large volumes of CO₂. However, there is little published work on the economics of CO₂ pipeline transport. The objective of this paper is to estimate total cost and the cost per tonne of transporting varying amounts of CO₂ over a range of distances for different regions of the continental United States. An engineering-economic model of pipeline CO₂ transport is developed for this purpose. The model incorporates a probabilistic analysis capability that can be used to quantify the sensitivity of transport cost to variability and uncertainty in the model input parameters. The results of a case study show a pipeline cost of US$ 1.16 per tonne of CO₂ transported for a 100 km pipeline constructed in the Midwest handling 5 million tonnes of CO₂ per year (the approximate output of an 800 MW coal-fired power plant with carbon capture). For the same set of assumptions, the cost of transport is US$ 0.39 per tonne lower in the Central US and US$ 0.20 per tonne higher in the Northeast US. Costs are sensitive to the design capacity of the pipeline and the pipeline length. For example, decreasing the design capacity of the Midwest US pipeline to 2 million tonnes per year increases the cost to US$ 2.23 per tonne of CO₂ for a 100 km pipeline, and US$ 4.06 per tonne CO₂ for a 200 km pipeline. An illustrative probabilistic analysis assigns uncertainty distributions to the pipeline capacity factor, pipeline inlet pressure, capital recovery factor, annual O&M cost, and escalation factors for capital cost components. The result indicates a 90% probability that the cost per tonne of CO₂ is between US$ 1.03 and US$ 2.63 per tonne of CO₂ transported in the Midwest US. In this case, the transport cost is shown to be most sensitive to the pipeline capacity factor and the capital recovery factor. The analytical model elaborated in this paper can be used to estimate pipeline costs for a broad range of potential CCS projects. It can also be used in conjunction with models producing more detailed estimates for specific projects, which requires substantially more information on site-specific factors affecting pipeline routing.     

CO2 capture from combined cycles integrated with Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells

In this paper Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells (MCFCs) are considered for their potential application in carbon dioxide separation when integrated into natural gas fired combined cycles. The MCFC performs on the anode side an electrochemical oxidation of natural gas by means of CO₃^2? ions which, as far as carbon capture is concerned, results in a twofold advantage: the cell removes CO₂ fed at the cathode to promote carbonate ion transport across the electrolyte and any dilution of the oxidized products is avoided.The MCFC can be “retrofitted” into a combined cycle, giving the opportunity to remove most of the CO₂ contained in the gas turbine exhaust gases before they enter the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG), and allowing to exploit the heat recovery steam cycle in an efficient “hybrid” fuel cell + steam turbine configuration. The carbon dioxide can be easily recovered from the cell anode exhaust after combustion with pure oxygen (supplied by an air separation unit) of the residual fuel, cooling of the combustion products in the HRSG and water separation. The resulting power cycle has the potential to keep the overall cycle electrical efficiency approximately unchanged with respect to the original combined cycle, while separating 80% of the CO₂ otherwise vented and limiting the size of the fuel cell, which contributes to about 17% of the total power output so that most of the power capacity relies on conventional low cost turbo-machinery. The calculated specific energy for CO₂ avoided is about 4 times lower than average values for conventional post-combustion capture technology. A sensitivity analysis shows that positive results hold also changing significantly a number of MCFC and plant design parameters.     

Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050

This study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 3.67 GtCO₂ year⁻¹ in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand years around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO₂ storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.     

Life cycle assessment of natural gas combined cycle power plant with post-combustion carbon capture,transport and storage

Hybrid life cycle assessment has been used to assess the environmental impacts of natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) electricity generation with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). The CCS chain modeled in this study consists of carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture from flue gas using monoethanolamine (MEA), pipeline transport and storage in a saline aquifer.Results show that the sequestration of 90% CO₂ from the flue gas results in avoiding 70% of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere per kWh and reduces global warming potential (GWP) by 64%. Calculation of other environmental impacts shows the trade-offs: an increase of 43% in acidification, 35% in eutrophication, and 120–170% in various toxicity impacts. Given the assumptions employed in this analysis, emissions of MEA and formaldehyde during capture process and generation of reclaimer wastes contributes to various toxicity potentials and cause many-fold increase in the on-site direct freshwater ecotoxicity and terrestrial ecotoxicity impacts. NO_x from fuel combustion is still the dominant contributor to most direct impacts, other than toxicity potentials and GWP. It is found that the direct emission of MEA contribute little to human toxicity (HT < 1%), however it makes 16% of terrestrial ecotoxicity impact. Hazardous reclaimer waste causes significant freshwater and marine ecotoxicity impacts. Most increases in impact are due to increased fuel requirements or increased investments and operating inputs.The reductions in GWP range from 58% to 68% for the worst-case to best-case CCS system. Acidification, eutrophication and toxicity potentials show an even large range of variation in the sensitivity analysis. Decreases in energy use and solvent degradation will significantly reduce the impact in all categories.     

Modeling the impacts of climate policy on the deployment of carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage across electric power regions in the United States

This paper summarizes the results of a first-of-its-kind holistic, integrated economic analysis of the potential role of carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) technologies across the regional segments of the United States (U.S.) electric power sector, over the time frame 2005–2045, in response to two hypothetical emissions control policies analyzed against two potential energy supply futures that include updated and substantially higher projected prices for natural gas. This paper's detailed analysis is made possible by combining two specialized models developed at Battelle: the Battelle CO₂-GIS to determine the regional capacity and cost of CO₂ transport and geologic storage; and the Battelle Carbon Management Electricity Model, an electric system optimal capacity expansion and dispatch model, to examine the investment and operation of electric power technologies with CCS against the background of other options. A key feature of this paper's analysis is an attempt to explicitly model the inherent heterogeneities that exist in both the nation's current and future electricity generation infrastructure and in its candidate deep geologic CO₂ storage formations. Overall, between 180 and 580 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired integrated gasification combined cycle with CCS (IGCC + CCS) capacity is built by 2045 in these four scenarios, requiring between 12 and 41 gigatonnes of CO₂ (GtCO₂) storage in regional deep geologic reservoirs across the U.S. Nearly all of this CO₂ is from new IGCC + CCS systems, which start to deploy after 2025. Relatively little IGCC + CCS capacity is built before that time, primarily under unique niche opportunities. For the most part, CO₂ emissions prices will likely need to be sustained at over $20/tonne CO₂ before CCS begins to deploy on a large scale within the electric power sector. Within these broad national trends, a highly nuanced picture of CCS deployment across the U.S. emerges. Across the four scenarios studied here, power plant builders and operators within some North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) regions do not employ any CCS while other regions build more than 100 GW of CCS-enabled generation capacity. One region sees as much as 50% of its geologic CO₂ storage reservoirs’ total theoretical capacity consumed by 2045, while most of the regions still have more than 90% of their potential storage capacity available to meet storage needs in the second half of the century and beyond. A detailed presentation of the results for power plant builds and operation in two key regions: ECAR in the Midwest and ERCOT in Texas, provides further insight into the diverse set of economic decisions that generate the national and aggregate regional results.