Modeling of food security and ecological footprint of coastal zone of Bangladesh

This paper presents the present status of food security and ecological footprint, an indicator of environmental sustainability of the coastal zones of Bangladesh. To estimate the present status of the food security and ecological footprint of the coastal zone of Bangladesh, primary and secondary data were collected, and the present status of food security and environmental degradation (in terms of ecological footprint) were calculated. To estimate the household food security, primary data were also collected from all the households in a representative selected village. A quantitative method for computation of food security in grain equivalent based on economic returns (price) is developed, and a method of measuring sustainable development in terms of ecological footprint developed by Wackernagel is used to estimate the environmental sustainability (Wackernagel and Rees in Our ecological footprint: reducing human impact on the earth. New Society, Gabrioala, BC, 1996; Chambers et al. in Sharing nature’s interest-ecological footprint as an indicator of sustainability. Earthscan, London, 2000). Overall status of food security at upazila levels is good for all the upazilas except Shoronkhola, Shyamnager and Morrelgonj, and the best is the Kalapara upazila. But the status of food security at household levels is poor. Environmental status in the coastal zones is poor for all the upazilas except Kalapara and Galachipa. The worst is in the Mongla upazila. Environmental status has degraded mainly due to shrimp culture. This study suggests that control measures are needed for affected upazilas and any further expansion of the shrimp aquaculture to enhance the food security must take into account the environmental aspects of the locality under consideration.     

Soil salinity,household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh

As a creeping process, salinisation represents a significant long-term environmental risk in coastal and deltaic environments. Excess soil salinity may exacerbate existing risks of food insecurity in densely populated tropical deltas, which is likely to have a negative effect on human and ecological sustainability of these regions and beyond. This study focuses on the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and uses data from the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the Soil Resource Development Institute to investigate the effect of soil salinity and wealth on household food security. The outcome variables are two widely used measures of food security: calorie availability and household expenditure on food items. The main explanatory variables tested include indicators of soil salinity and household-level socio-economic characteristics. The results of logistic regression show that in unadjusted models, soil salinisation has a significant negative effect on household food security. However, this impact becomes statistically insignificant when households’ wealth is taken into account. The results further suggest that education and remittance flows, but not gender or working status of the household head, are significant predictors of food insecurity in the study area. The findings indicate the need to focus scholarly and policy attention on reducing wealth inequalities in tropical deltas in the context of the global sustainable deltas initiative and the proposed Sustainable Development Goals.     

Envisioning the digital sustainability panopticon: a thought experiment of how big data may help advancing sustainability in the digital age

The starting point for a theoretical vision of digital big data and sustainability builds on the situation of a currently unsustainable world threatening present and future generations regarding all three dimensions of sustainability. Given the paradigmatic changes the era of Big Data brings about, this paper proposes a thought experiment based on Bentham’s panopticon theory, where real-time data availability offers technical opportunities to promote and transform sustainability in a preceded way. Hence, different panopticon theories are discussed and merged with the concept of sustainability to arrive at the concept of the Digital Sustainability Panopticon defined by six criteria. This vision is framed by the ten “quality criteria for visions and visioning in sustainability science” (Wiek and Iwaniec 2014) and critically discussed regarding the totalitarian potential of digital surveillance and the paradox of freedom.     

Benchmarking the effectiveness of mitigation measures to the quality of environmental impact statements: lessons and insights from mines along the Great Dyke of Zimbabwe

The environmental impact statement (EIS) plays an important role in informing decision makers about the likely impacts of development projects on the environment and suggesting mitigation measures for addressing such impacts. Increased effort to improve the quality of EIS has been a focus on its proposed mitigation measures and their likely effectiveness. There is, however, a lack of such studies in Zimbabwe’s mining industry. Following a conceptual framework of EIS quality as an indicator of mitigation effectiveness, this paper assesses the quality of EIS and its likely influence on the effectiveness of its proposed mitigation measures. Twenty-two purposively sampled EISs for mines operating along the Great Dyke of Zimbabwe were reviewed using the modified Lee and Colley (Review of the quality of environmental statements, Manchester EIA Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester 1992) quality review package and Mitchell’s (EA the Magazine of IEA and EARA 28–29, 1997) mitigation hierarchy guidelines. Results show that 77 % of the EISs are of satisfactory quality, while 51 % of the proposed mitigation measures focus on adverse impact reduction. The deficiencies are traced to vagueness in the regulations regarding baseline data collection and analysis and conceptualization of mitigation. Based on the results, it is suggested that more efforts should be aimed at reviewing the EIA regulations in order to improve the quality of EISs.     

基于生态足迹模型的中国发展可持续性评估

可持续发展的定量测度是可持续发展战略得心实施的重要条件，加拿大学者Mathis Wackemagel提出的生态中迹模型就是一种测量可持续的新方法，该方法通过计算支持特定区域人类社会所有消费活动所需要的土地（生态足迹）与该区域可提供的生物生产性土地（生态承载力0相比较来判断区域发展的可持续性，本文首先简单介绍了生态足迹模型的基本概念、计算方法，然后对中国2001年生态足迹进行了实证研究，研究结果表明，2001年中国人均生态足迹为1.47435hm^2而人均承载力只有1.05306hm^2，生态赤字为0.42129hm^2中国发展具有强不可持续性，现有生产、消费模式的转变是可持续发展的必然要求。     

Crossing technology and sustainability in cities’ development

This paper deals with sustainability in cities and the role technology plays in furthering sustainable results. Recently, many interventions have been implemented in cities to propose paths and models promoting the sustainability of cities from an overall perspective. Technologies are favouring the achievement of aims recalling the three spheres of sustainability as proposed by Arcadis (2017), namely “planet”, “profit”, and “people”. The ties between technology and the three spheres are investigated through a content analysis of reports issued by the 10 cities with the most significant advances in terms of becoming sustainable cities, as indicated in the Arcadis Report 2016. The results highlight technology as an element crossing sustainability, as processes and models in cities management and service provisions to citizens are significantly changing. New tools are innovating the processes addressing environmental issues, thus leading to cost efficiency and better economic conditions. Parallel to this, new models for city management and the provision of public services are addressing the need for a better quality of life for citizens and cities’ other stakeholders. Technology itself is thought of as sustainable because it should lead to efficiency and being efficient itself. A qualitative cluster analysis and a focus on excerpts from reports are proposed to highlight the ties between technologies and the elements representing key issues in managing and leading a city towards more sustainable conditions.     

From poverty trap to ecosystem service curse

In spite of broad and positive expectations, payments for ecosystem services (PES) can bring about unexpected and negative consequences, especially in terms of their impacts on the well-being of local communities dependent on ecosystems. Based on numerous observations of recurring problems with PES, we put forward an ecosystem service curse hypothesis (Kronenberg and Hubacek in Ecol Soc 18:art.10. doi: 10.5751/ES-05240-180110, 2013), that points to counterintuitive negative development outcomes for countries and regions rich in ecosystem services. The social and economic problems that we have been able to depict in many PES schemes reflect the persistence of maladaptive states in pursuit of sustainability. Instead of providing an opportunity to break out of poverty, these problems reflect entrapment, which is most often related to poor quality of institutions. Here we highlight the linkages between the ecosystem service curse hypothesis and the dynamic system stability landscapes discussed in this special issue. Our article consists of three parts in which we: (1) present the original ecosystem service curse hypothesis; (2) link this hypothesis to the broader discussions relevant to sustainability science; and (3) highlight the context of traps on which this special feature focuses.     

The development of a sustainable urban district in Hammarby Sjöstad,Stockholm, Sweden?

By 2012, Hammarby Sjöstad, a former large industrial harbor area in southern Stockholm, Sweden, will be a fully developed residential district containing approximately 11,000 apartments and accommodating 35,000 people. The transformation of the area began in 1996, and the development soon became renowned for its ambitious environmental program, inspired by Agenda 21 (United Nations in Rio declaration on environment and development. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Rio de Janeiro, 1992) and the Sydney 2000 Olympics in Australia (Newman in Landsc Urban Plan 44:219–226, 1999). Using results based on literature reviews, in-depth interviews, discussions with focus groups, and quantitative data, this paper attempts to gain insight into how the environmental program influenced the planning and performance of the district with regard to sustainable urban development. In doing so, three important conclusions were maintained that could be valuable for similar projects concerning the planning and development of sustainable urban districts. First, the environmental program proved vital to the development process of Hammarby Sjöstad, specifically in its drive to create a sustainable urban district. When planning on improving the sustainability of future districts, such a program should be introduced and integrated earlier in the planning stage of the district. Second, the metabolic flows of Hammarby Sjöstad were reduced as a result of the integrated system—the Hammarby Model—of Hammarby Sjöstad. In order to reduce the metabolic flows in future urban districts even further, it is important to facilitate the integration of technical innovations into existing integrated systems. Third, this case study showed that there was a loss of valid and credible data related to the aims and goals of the environmental program of Hammarby Sjöstad. In future urban districts, it is of the utmost importance to include a clear structure of the assessment process in the environmental program, which would ensure the quality of gathered data and facilitate the development of even better sustainable urban districts in the future.     

Whose values count: is a theory of social choice for sustainability science possible?

If sustainability science is to mature as a discipline, it will be important for practitioners to discuss and eventually agree upon the fundamentals of the paradigm on which the new discipline is based. Since sustainability is fundamentally a normative assertion about tradeoffs among values, how society chooses the specifics among these tradeoffs is central to the sustainability problem. Whose values should count in making social decisions and how should the multiplicity of values that exist be known and used in that decision process? Given the vast spatial domains and temporal domains at work in the sustainability problem, we need some means of reconciling the inevitably divergent choices depending on whose values we count, how we know what those values are, and how we count them in making social decisions. We propose an approach to dealing with these questions based on Rawls (A theory of justice. Belknap Press, Cambridge, 1971) and explore the problems inherent in a social choice theory for sustainability science.     

西昌市生态空间占用及其生态系统安全评估

生态系统安全的概念应该与人类的可持续发展联系在一起,其安全的目标在于为人类的生存和发展提供持续和良好的生态服务功能,在这一意义上,生态安全就是生态系统的可持续性。生态系统安全是新兴的生态系统管理学概念,是新的环境管理和生态系统管理目标。利用生态占用分析方法,对西昌市整个生态系统的生态盈亏和生态系统安全进行评估,得出西昌市目前人均生态赤字0.6 hm2和生态安全受到挑战的结论。并进行了生态占用的敏感性分析：能源资源消耗降低10%,人均生态赤字降低5.32%;产量因子提高10%,人均生态赤字降低14.01%;能源消耗减低10%,同时产量因子提高10%,人均生态空间赤字减少降低19.33%。指出了能源循环利用、资源节约、技术革新和单位面积资源增值等为主要特征的生态产业发展对生态系统保育的意义和效应。     

Urban hinterlands—the case of an Israeli town ecological footprint

Modern urban life is characterized by the consumption of materials and energy, which are imported from all over the world and discharge waste that in many cases has a negative impact on ecosystems far from the cities in which they consumed. Indeed, cities cannot survive without worldwide hinterlands for resources and emissions sequestration. The ecological footprint (EF) concept provides valuable insights into the human appropriation of resources relative to earth’s carrying capacity, and therefore it enables us to compare human demands with nature’s supply and provides an indicator of human ecological sustainability. An attempt was made to calculate the EF of Ra’anana, Israel as a case study, to compare the EF-value with the expected for ecological sustainability and to emphasize the dependence on overseas ecosystems. Ra’anana, a town of 67,300 inhabitants in the year 2002, is considered a ‘dormitory town’ with a high quality of life. The EF was calculated using mainly the component method. The calculated EF for Ra’anana is 4.0 ha/resident which means that the required hinterland, located all over the world, is nearly 180 times the size of the town. The town’s EF is twice the value expected for sustainability on a global scale. We draw several scenarios in order to reduce the EF. On a national basis as well as with the town case study, electric energy, food and waste can be reduced and in turn would have a dramatic impact on the EF.

Refining the ecological footprint

Ecological footprint measures how much of the biosphere’s annual regenerative capacity is required to renew the natural resources used by a defined population in a given year. Ecological footprint analysis (EFA) compares the footprint with biocapacity. When a population’s footprint is greater than biocapacity it is reported to be engaging in ecological overshoot. Recent estimates show that humanity’s footprint exceeds Earth’s biocapacity by 23%. Despite increasing popularity of EFA, definitional, theoretical, and methodological issues hinder more widespread scientific acceptance and use in policy settings. Of particular concern is how EFA is defined and what it actually measures, exclusion of open oceans and less productive lands from biocapacity accounts, failure to allocate space for other species, use of agricultural productivity potential as the basis for equivalence factors (EQF), how the global carbon budget is allocated, and failure to capture unsustainable use of aquatic or terrestrial ecosystems. This article clarifies the definition of EFA and proposes several methodological and theoretical refinements. Our new approach includes the entire surface of the Earth in biocapacity, allocates space for other species, changes the basis of EQF to net primary productivity (NPP), reallocates the carbon budget, and reports carbon sequestration biocapacity. We apply the new approach to footprint accounts for 138 countries and compare our results with output from the standard model. We find humanity’s global footprint and ecological overshoot to be substantially greater, and suggest the new approach is an important step toward making EFA a more accurate and meaningful sustainability assessment tool.

广西1990-2002年生态足迹动态分析

生态足迹是一种评估区域可持续发展程度和量度维持人类的自然资源消费量的帐户工具。本文以广西为例，结广西1990、1995、2002年三个时期的生态足迹及生态承载力进行计算和分析，结果表明，12年以来，广西人均生态足迹和生态赤字均呈快速增长态势，人均生态足迹从1990年的为0.9908hm^2增加至2002年的1.3369hm^2；人均生态足迹赤字从1990年的0.5821hm^2增加至0.9521hm^2。这表明人类对自然资源的利用已经超过了生态系统的承载能力，区域生态经济系统处于人类过度开发利用的重压之下，必须引起重视。     

The environmental impact of industrialization in East Asia and strategies toward sustainable development

The East Asian economy has been growing fast in recent years, and environmental stresses are building up rapidly. Transboundary air pollution, water shortages, drinking water contamination, freshwater and marine pollution, deforestation, climatic disasters, and other environmental problems are becoming serious threats to the well-being of people in this densely populated region. The ESI (environmental sustainability index) reported by the World Economic Forum in 2005 is a good indicator of the environmental status of the region; most East Asian countries ranked at the bottom. East Asia is not moving toward a sustainable society, and the environment will not sustain the current rate of economic development for long. The traditional culture of East Asia used to be sustainable, so we can learn much from our traditions. Land use should be planned from an ecological point of view so as to best preserve the land’s productivity and stability. There should be definite goals as to where and how much to preserve the three important ecological bases: forests, coastal wetlands and agricultural farms. The forest is the base for the terrestrial ecosystem, including flood control, water resources, and climate; the coastal wetland is the base for the marine ecosystem; farmland is the base for producing food. Within these defined goals, limits should be set on how much land can be utilized for activities like urban development, manufacturing, and recreation. Limits on the pollution load resulting from such activities should be set so as not to irreversibly damage the environment. Economic development should be planned to allow the use of energy and resources only after satisfying these constraints.

基于生态系统服务功能理论的生态足迹模型研究

由于传统Wackemagel and Rees生态足迹模型仅研究人类对资源的需求和生态系统供给的生物生产能力之间的差距,忽略了生态系统的其它功能,无法体现生态系统的整体性.本文以传统生态足迹模型为基础,引入生态系统服务功能价值理论,提出了基于生态系统服务功能价值的生态足迹模型.该模型以生态生产性土地的生态服务功能价值评估为基础,改进传统生态足迹模型中均衡因子和产量因子的计算方法.采用生物生产性土地的综合生态系统服务功能的价值当量因子计量生态足迹模型中的均衡因子,采用生态系统单元的单位面积生态系统服务功能价值与全国该生态系统单元的平均价值的比值表示产量因子.改进后的生态足迹模型既反映了区域人类资源消费对生物生产性土地的占用,又反映了区域人类资源消费对生态系统服务功能的使用,较科学的体现了生态系统的整体性.同时,本文以大连市2005年社会经济统计数据为基础,运用改进的生态足迹模型对大连市的生态足迹进行了测算,对研究模型进行了检验.     

Measuring sustainable urbanization in China: a case study of the coastal Liaoning area

The global urbanization process poses a serious challenge to achieving sustainable development. The significance of sustainable urbanization has been increasingly appreciated, yet, very little empirical evidence has been provided for this prospect. In this paper, we use the Human Development Index and the ecological footprint to measure the sustainability of the coastal Liaoning area. We then use the quadrant map approach to determine the relationship between sustainability and urbanization. The results show that the coastal area has made progress in sustainable urbanization in the social dimension. Improvement in the environmental dimension has been dynamic. Our results indicate that sustainable urbanization is a dynamic, multi-dimensional progress that requires regular monitoring and reevaluation. This paper also highlights the importance of choosing more complete indicators for measuring the sustainability of urbanization, as no single model or measurement is sufficient for quantifying the different dimensions of sustainability.     

Who is susceptible and why? An agent-based approach to assessing vulnerability to drought

In this paper, we specify susceptibility to drought from a psychology-based bottom-up perspective. On the basis of the protection motivation theory (Rippetoe and Rogers in J Pers Soc Psychol 52(3):596–604, 1987), we developed the protection-capacity model (Krömker and Mosler in Global environmental change in Alpine regions: impact, recognition, adaptation, and mitigation. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp 93–112, 2002) to analyse the susceptibility with respect to the protection capacity of agents. The protection capacity is determined by the agents’ subjective assessment of the situation, which consists of the appraisal of threat, on the one hand, and the coping appraisal, on the other hand. Additionally, the protection-capacity model specifies several factors which influence the two central appraisal processes. Empirical data were collected in interviews with experts and with a total of 65 exemplarily selected households which are typical for the respective case study regions (Andhra Pradesh, India; Algarve and Alentejo, Portugal; Volgograd and Saratov, Russia). The data were analysed with the help of fuzzy set methodology. Results show that the households of the Indian region are the most susceptible when compared to those of the Russian region with ‘low’ and to households of the Portuguese region with a ‘very low’ degree of susceptibility. Moreover, we identified subgroups within the regions which are characterized by different degrees of susceptibility and a different profile of factors influencing susceptibility. Altogether, the agent-based perspective allows identifying relevant factors that need to be addressed to minimize susceptibility of the population and special subgroups. However, the results are not representative for the case study regions because of the small database. Additionally, more effort is needed to validate the findings.     

On Touristic Ecological Footprint of Macau

Abstract

Despite its tiny territory, Macau boasts a large volume of tourist activities, which serves as the pillar of its economy. Environment and natural resources are the cornerstone of tourism, but are also subject to the negative impact of tourism. Based on the theory and methodology of ecological footprint analysis, this paper calculated the touristic ecological footprint and deficit of Macau in 2009, in an effort to bring to light the current status of excessive consumption of resources by tourism. As the findings show, the non-transferable touristic ecological footprint and touristic ecological deficit of Macau in 2009 are respectively 18 300.891 gha and 12 737.584 gha, and the former is 3.29 times as large as the touristic ecological carrying capacity. Touristic ecological footprint of Macau is highly efficient in economic sense but currently tourism is developing in an unsustainable manner, so appropriate initiatives are in need to strike a balance between tourism development and resource conservation and to promote the sustainability of tourism industry of Macau.     

Evaluating knowledge integration and co-production in a 2-year collaborative learning process with smallholder dairy farmer groups

Although knowledge integration and co-production are integral to transdisciplinary approaches to foster sustainable change in social–ecological systems, this type of research is usually not evaluated based on assessments of the learning process. While participants are meant to be central in such approaches, too often, their perspectives are not central to the evaluation. Moreover, there is limited empirical information about how new knowledge is transformed into action. We respond to these knowledge gaps by analyzing (A) farmers’ perspectives on the collaborative learning process and (B) how farmers’ new knowledge can serve as the basis for changed actions. Theoretically, we are guided by second-order cybernetics and have integrated the Control Loop Model with Learning Loops to extend Kirkpatrick (Evaluating training programs: the four levels, 2nd edn. Berrett-Koehler Publisher, San Francisco, 1998) four-level evaluation scheme. We apply this to evaluate a 2-year collaborative learning process with two smallholder dairy farmer groups in Nakuru County, Kenya that aimed to co-develop local sustainable pathways to reduce milk losses. Results showed that farmers learned by (1) implementing corrective actions based on known cause–effect relations (single-loop learning); (2) discovering new cause–effect relations and testing their effect (double-loop learning); and (3) further questioning and changing their aims (triple-loop learning). Highlighting the importance of knowledge integration and co-production, this collaboration between farmers, researchers, and field assistants improved the farmers’ ability to respond, adapt, and intentionally transform their farming system in relation with complex sustainability challenges. Results demonstrate that the potential of our evaluation scheme to better reflect learning and empowerment experienced by actors involved in transdisciplinary research for sustainability.