Generic framework for meso-scale assessment of climate change hazards in coastal environments

This paper presents a generic framework for assessing inherent climate change hazards in coastal environments through a combined coastal classification and hazard evaluation system. The framework is developed to be used at scales relevant for regional and national planning and aims to cover all coastal environments worldwide through a specially designed coastal classification system containing 113 generic coastal types. The framework provides information on the degree to which key climate change hazards are inherent in a particular coastal environment, and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The system includes a total of 565 individual hazard evaluations, each graduated into four different hazard levels based on a scientific literature review. The framework uses a simple assessment methodology with limited data and computing requirements, allowing for application in developing country settings. It is presented as a graphical tool—the Coastal Hazard Wheel—to ease its application for planning purposes.     

Applying DPSIR to sustainable development

The DPSIR framework was devised in the late 1990s as a tool for the reporting and analysis of environmental problems, ranging in scale from global systems to localized watersheds. Since then, international organizations have begun to apply this framework to the evaluation of sustainable development initiatives, to better understand and overcome barriers to sustainability. While this may seem a logical application for an integrated environmental assessment tool, the use of DPSIR in sustainable development will likely perpetuate the least satisfactory outcomes of development. DPSIR cannot address the impact of aggregated, informal responses on the drivers and pressures related to environmental problems and sustainability challenges. This problem is not merely an oversight of the framework, but an issue that emerges within the structure of DPSIR itself through the unexamined, unacknowledged hierarchy of actors that this framework implicitly creates with its typology. Therefore, a DPSIR-centered approach is not a new direction for development within international organizations, but instead, a reproduction of existing inequalities between actors and stakeholders within current approaches.     

An expanded conceptual framework for solution-focused management of chemical pollution in European waters

Background

This paper describes a conceptual framework for solutions-focused management of chemical contaminants built on novel and systematic approaches for identifying, quantifying and reducing risks of these substances.

Methods

The conceptual framework was developed in interaction with stakeholders representing relevant authorities and organisations responsible for managing environmental quality of water bodies. Stakeholder needs were compiled via a survey and dialogue. The content of the conceptual framework was thereafter developed with inputs from relevant scientific disciplines.

Results

The conceptual framework consists of four access points: Chemicals, Environment, Abatement and Society, representing different aspects and approaches to engaging in the issue of chemical contamination of surface waters. It widens the scope for assessment and management of chemicals in comparison to a traditional (mostly) perchemical risk assessment approaches by including abatement- and societal approaches as optional solutions. The solution-focused approach implies an identification of abatement- and policy options upfront in the risk assessment process. The conceptual framework was designed for use in current and future chemical pollution assessments for the aquatic environment, including the specific challenges encountered in prioritising individual chemicals and mixtures, and is applicable for the development of approaches for safe chemical management in a broader sense. The four access points of the conceptual framework are interlinked by four key topics representing the main scientific challenges that need to be addressed, i.e.: identifying and prioritising hazardous chemicals at different scales; selecting relevant and efficient abatement options; providing regulatory support for chemicals management; predicting and prioritising future chemical risks. The conceptual framework aligns current challenges in the safe production and use of chemicals. The current state of knowledge and implementation of these challenges is described.

Conclusions

The use of the conceptual framework, and addressing the challenges, is intended to support: (1) forwarding sustainable use of chemicals, (2) identification of pollutants of priority concern for cost-effective management, (3) the selection of optimal abatement options and (4) the development and use of optimised legal and policy instruments.

     

Modelling with uncertainty: Introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics

Predictive population models designed to assist managers and policy makers require an explicit treatment of inherent uncertainty and variability. These are particular concerns when modelling non-native and reintroduced species, when data have been collected within one geographical or ecological context but predictions are required for another, or when extending models to predict the consequences of environmental change (e.g., climate or land-use). We present an aspatial, probabilistic framework of hierarchical process models for predicting population growth even when data are sparse or of poor quality. Insight into the factors affecting population dynamics in real landscapes can be provided and Kullback–Leibler distances are used to compare the relative output of models. This flexible yet robust framework gives easily interpretable results, allowing managers as well as modellers to invalidate anomalous models and apply others to real-life scenarios.We illustrate the framework’s power with a meta-analysis of European wild boar (Sus scrofa) data. We test hypotheses about the effect of geographic region, hunting and mast years on wild boar population growth, to build models of wild boar dynamics for the UK. The framework quantifies the importance of hunting pressure as a driver of population growth, and confirms that reproductive success is greatly decreased in poor mast years, suggesting that the key to predicting wild boar dynamics is to ascertain local hunting pressure and to better understand changing food availability. Geography had no significant effect, indicating that it is not a good proxy for modelling the impact of change in climate or land-use on wild boar populations at the European scale. We use the framework to predict population abundance 9 years after an isolated population of wild boar established in the UK; in a comparison with the only field data and two independent modelling exercises, our framework provides the most robust and informative results.     

Water environmental planning and management at the watershed scale: A case study of Lake Qilu, China

Water environmental planning and management has become essential for guiding the water pollution control activities. Past water pollution control activities have been site specific, with little thought on water quality standard reaching at the watershed scale. Based on the watershed approach, a seven-step methodological framework for water environmental planning and management was developed. The framework was applied to water environmental planning and management of the Lake Qilu watershed in Yunnan Province, China. Results show that the reduction amount of total nitrogen (TN) under the plan is 1,205 tons per year so that the target of environmental capacity can be reached in 2020. Compared with traditional methods, the framework has its prevalence and could be generalized to analogous watersheds.     

依据(代)生物体对化学品的反应预测对生态系统服务功能的影响

保护生态系统服务功能越来越多地被作为风险评估的目标,但是目前生态风险评估的终点和评估生态系统服务功能受到的潜在影响之间有很大的差距。作者提出了一个框架,将常用的生态毒理学终点与对种群和群落的影响以及生态系统的服务功能联系起来。这个框架建立在机制效应模型的长足进步上,这些模型旨在跨越多种生物组织,并解释各种生物相互作用和反馈。为了说明这一点,作者引入了2个研究案例,它们采用了已完善和已验证的机制效应模型：鱼种群的inSTREAM个体模型和AQUATOX生态系统模型。他们还展示了动态能量平衡理论可以为解释组织级毒性提供一种通用货币。他们认为,一个基于机制模型的框架,可以预测化学品暴露对生态系统服务的影响,再结合经济估值,可以为环境管理提供一种有用的方法。作者强调了使用这个框架的潜在好处以及未来工作中需要解决的挑战。
精选自Forbes, V. E., Salice, C. J., Birnir, B., Bruins, R. J.F., Calow, P., Ducrot, V., Galic, N., Garber, K., Harvey, B. C., Jager, H., Kanarek, A., Pastorok, R., Railsback, S. F., Rebarber, R. and Thorbek, P. (2017), A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 845–859. doi: 10.1002/etc.3720
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3720/full
     

From teleconnection to telecoupling: taking stock of an emerging framework in land system science

Land use change is influenced by a complexity of drivers that transcend spatial, institutional and temporal scales. The analytical framework of telecoupling has recently been proposed in land system science to address this complexity, particularly the increasing importance of distal connections, flows and feedbacks characterising change in land systems. This framework holds important potential for advancing the analysis of land system change. In this article, we review the state of the art of the telecoupling framework in the land system science literature. The article traces the development of the framework from teleconnection to telecoupling and presents two approaches to telecoupling analysis currently proposed in the literature. Subsequently, we discuss a number of analytical challenges related to categorisation of systems, system boundaries, hierarchy and scale. Finally, we propose approaches to address these challenges by looking beyond land system science to theoretical perspectives from economic geography, social metabolism studies, political ecology and cultural anthropology.     

Integrated water resource management at the industrial park level: A case of the Tianjin Economic Development Area

Water reuse and wastewater minimization are becoming increasingly important strategies for industrial parks. However, integrated industrial water management systems at an industrial park level have not yet been adequately investigated to determine synergies. This paper employs a case study of the Tianjin Economic Development Area (TEDA) to examine the importance of developing an integrated water resources management framework at the industrial park level. The paper presents a framework for effective and efficient management of water resources within an industrial park by taking a systems approach to conventional water management practices, designed to minimize industrial water use and maximize wastewater reuse among different tenants of an industrial park. The framework is composed of four elements: a management information system, policies and regulations, economic instruments and capacity building. The paper then considers how to implement such an integrated approach.     

区域建设项目的污染物排放总量控制方法框架

针对目前还缺乏可操作的建设项目环境管理实施污染物排放总量控制(以下简称总量控制)的方法,基于郑州市环境保护局在建设项目环境管理实施总量控制方面的多年实践与经验,探讨了对总量已超出区域环境容量的地区如何对建设项目实施总量控制,如何确定区域污染减排和综合整治总量控制目标的确定,如何构建新、老污染源之间良性互动机制以及制定建设项目实施总量控制的政策、制度和管理措施保障,为区域建设项目环境管理实施总量控制提供了理论和方法框架。     

Modelling heterogeneity in the recoveries of marked animal populations with covariates of individual animals, groups of animals or recovery time

A general framework is developed for modelling rates of survival and recovery of marked animal populations in terms of auxiliary information collected at the time of marking. The framework may be used to estimate differences in survival or recovery among individual animals, groups of animals, and recovery times. Analyses of the recoveries of tagged fish and banded bird populations are used to illustrate the specification and selection of various models.     

Inferring the nature of anthropogenic threats from long‐term abundance records

Diagnosing the processes that threaten species persistence is critical for recovery planning and risk forecasting. Dominant threats are typically inferred by experts on the basis of a patchwork of informal methods. Transparent, quantitative diagnostic tools would contribute much‐needed consistency, objectivity, and rigor to the process of diagnosing anthropogenic threats. Long‐term census records, available for an increasingly large and diverse set of taxa, may exhibit characteristic signatures of specific threatening processes and thereby provide information for threat diagnosis. We developed a flexible Bayesian framework for diagnosing threats on the basis of long‐term census records and diverse ancillary sources of information. We tested this framework with simulated data from artificial populations subjected to varying degrees of exploitation and habitat loss and several real‐world abundance time series for which threatening processes are relatively well understood: bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) (exploitation) and Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) and Eurasian Skylark (Alauda arvensis) (habitat loss). Our method correctly identified the process driving population decline for over 90% of time series simulated under moderate to severe threat scenarios. Successful identification of threats approached 100% for severe exploitation and habitat loss scenarios. Our method identified threats less successfully when threatening processes were weak and when populations were simultaneously affected by multiple threats. Our method selected the presumed true threat model for all real‐world case studies, although results were somewhat ambiguous in the case of the Eurasian Skylark. In the latter case, incorporation of an ancillary source of information (records of land‐use change) increased the weight assigned to the presumed true model from 70% to 92%, illustrating the value of the proposed framework in bringing diverse sources of information into a common rigorous framework. Ultimately, our framework may greatly assist conservation organizations in documenting threatening processes and planning species recovery. Inferencia la Naturaleza de las Amenazas Antropogénicas para los Registros de Abundancia a Largo Plazo     

Risk Assessment of Riparian Plant Invasions into Protected Areas

Abstract:  Protected areas are becoming increasingly isolated. River corridors represent crucial links to the surrounding landscape but are also major conduits for invasion of alien species. We developed a framework to assess the risk that alien plants in watersheds adjacent to a protected area will invade the protected area along rivers. The framework combines species- and landscape-level approaches and has five key components: (1) definition of the geographical area of interest, (2) delineation of the domain into ecologically meaningful zones, (3) identification of the appropriate landscape units, (4) categorization of alien species and mapping of their distribution and abundance, and (5) definition of management options. The framework guides the determination of species distribution and abundance through successive, easily followed steps, providing the means for the assessment of areas of concern. We applied the framework to Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa. We recorded 231 invasive alien plant species (of which 79 were major invaders) in the domain. The KNP is facing increasing pressure from alien species in the upper regions of the drainage areas of neighboring watersheds. On the basis of the climatic modeling, we showed that most major riparian invaders have the ability to spread across the KNP should they be transported down the rivers. With this information, KNP managers can identify areas for proactive intervention, monitoring, and resource allocation. Even for a very large protected area such as the KNP, sustainable management of biodiversity will depend heavily on the response of land managers upstream managing alien plants. We suggest that this framework is applicable to plants and other passively dispersed species that invade protected areas situated at the end of a drainage basin.     

A framework based on fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS for prioritizing solutions to overcome the barriers in the implementation of ecodesign practices in SMEs

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are under pressure to adopt sustainable practices in their business due to increasing environmental challenges. This study aims to identify and prioritize the solutions to overcome the barriers in the implementation of ecodesign practices in SMEs. This study helps the companies to develop and implement the strategies on priority using higher ranked solutions. In this study, a framework is proposed that is based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution to rank the solutions that overcome the barriers in ecodesign implementation in SMEs. The proposed framework is illustrated by conducting a case study of an Indian ring and piston manufacturing company. This framework provides an effective support in the decision-making of the company for producing eco-friendly products through the implementation of ecodesign practices. Results of this study emphasize that training of designers to use different ecodesign tools is an essential practice for SMEs.     

A Global Conservation System for Climate-Change Adaptation

Abstract:  Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway .     

Uncertainty,benefit-cost analysis,and the treatment of option value

This paper proposes a new conceptual framework for defining welfare measures under uncertainty: the planned expenditure function. This function describes the locus of expenditures on contingent claims that are required to realize a given level of expected utility. To illustrate the convenience of the framework, it is used to consider the definition of the option price, the appropriate treatment of option value, the valuation of risk changes, and the definition of non-use benefits under uncertainty.     

Evaluating and managing wildlife impacts of climate change under uncertainty

Wildlife managers face the daunting task of managing wildlife in light of uncertainty about the nature and extent of future climate change and variability and its potential adverse impacts on wildlife. A conceptual framework is developed for managing wildlife under such uncertainty. The framework uses fuzzy logic to test hypotheses about the extent of the wildlife impacts of past climate change and variability, and fuzzy multiple attribute evaluation to determine best compensatory management actions for adaptively managing the potential adverse impacts of future climate change and variability on wildlife. A compensatory management action is one that can offset some of the potential adverse impacts of climate change and variability on wildlife. Implementation of the proposed framework requires wildlife managers to: (1) select climate impact states, hypotheses about climate impact states, possible management actions for alleviating adverse wildlife impacts of climate change and variability, and future climate change scenarios; (2) choose biological attributes or indicators of species integrity; (3) adjust those attributes for changes in non-climatic variables; (4) define linguistic variables and associated triangular fuzzy numbers for rating both the acceptability of biological conditions under alternative management actions and the relative importance of biological attributes; (5) select minimum or maximum acceptable levels of the attributes and reliability levels for chance constraints on the biological attributes; and (6) define fuzzy sets on the extent of species integrity and biological conditions and select a fuzzy relation between species integrity and biological conditions. A constructed example is used to illustrate a hypothetical application of the framework by a wildlife management team. An overall best compensatory management action across all climate change scenarios is determined using the minimax regret criterion, which is appropriate when the management team cannot assign or is unwilling to assign probabilities to the future climate change scenarios. Application of the framework can be simplified and expedited by incorporating it in a web-based, interactive, decision support tool.     

Sustainable development as freedom

There has been considerable debate about how best to define sustainable development. In this commentary, I argue that Amartya Sen's concept of 'development as freedom' is the appropriate theoretical framework for understanding sustainable development. Environmentalists should consider defining their goal as 'sustainable development as freedom,' the achievement of the greatest possible level of freedom without restricting the access of future generations to these same freedoms. The adoption of this framework has implications for the work of environmental NGOs, which are briefly discussed.     

Bayesian estimation of European sulphur emissions using monitoring data and an acid deposition model

A statistical method for estimating national emissions of acidifying air pollutants in Europe is presented. The method uses an acid deposition model to match official emissions data from European countries and measured depositions from a monitoring network. An application to 1990 sulphate data demonstrates the method and suggests some tendencies in the reported emissions. The proposed framework may prove useful for verifying national compliance with emissions standards, and the method should be applicable also to other substances than sulphur dioxide. The problem of designing an optimal monitoring network may also be assessed within the proposed statistical framework.     

Ranking individual habitat patches as connectivity providers: Integrating network analysis and patch removal experiments

Here we propose an integrated framework for modeling connectivity that can help ecologists, conservation planners and managers to identify patches that, more than others, contribute to uphold species dispersal and other ecological flows in a landscape context. We elaborate, extend and partly integrate recent network-based approaches for modeling and supporting the management of fragmented landscapes. In doing so, experimental patch removal techniques and network analytical approaches are merged into one integrated modeling framework for assessing the role of individual patches as connectivity providers. In particular, we focus the analyses on the habitat availability metrics PC and IIC and on the network metric Betweenness Centrality. The combination and extension of these metrics jointly assess both the immediate connectivity impacts of the loss of a particular patch and the resulting increased vulnerability of the network to subsequent disruptions. In using the framework to analyze the connectivity of two real landscapes in Madagascar and Catalonia (NE Spain), we suggest a procedure that can be used to rank individual habitat patches and show that the combined metrics reveal relevant and non-redundant information valuable to assert and quantify distinctive connectivity aspects of any given patch in the landscape. Hence, we argue that the proposed framework could facilitate more ecologically informed decision-making in managing fragmented landscapes. Finally, we discuss and highlight some of the advantages, limitations and key differences between the considered metrics.