Climate change and the adaptability of agriculture: a review

The assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture has emerged as a recognizable field of research over the past 15 years or so. In a relatively short period, this area of work has undergone a number of important conceptual and methodological developments. Among many questions that have been debated are the adaptability of agriculture to climate change and the importance of land management adjustments in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In turn, this latter focus has spawned a discussion regarding the nature of adaptation and the ability of agriculture to respond to sudden and rapid climatic changes. In this paper we present an overview of this debate. It is argued that the first generation of climate change impact studies generally ignored the possibility that agriculturalists may adjust their farming practices in order to cope with climate change or to take advantage of new production opportunities. This conceptual oversight has been largely eliminated over the past five years or so. However, questions remain surrounding the likelihood that various adaptive strategies will actually be deployed in particular places. In this paper, we stress the importance of studying adaptation in the context of decision-making at the individual farm level and beyond.     

Climate Change and the Adaptability of Agriculture: A Review

ABSTRACT

The assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture has emerged as a recognizable field of research over the past 15 years or so. In a relatively short period, this area of work has undergone a number of important conceptual and methodological developments. Among many questions that have been debated are the adaptability of agriculture to climate change and the importance of land management adjustments in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In turn, this latter focus has spawned a discussion regarding the nature of adaptation and the ability of agriculture to respond to sudden and rapid climatic changes. In this paper we present an overview of this debate.

It is argued that the first generation of climate change impact studies generally ignored the possibility that agriculturalists may adjust their farming practices in order to cope with climate change or to take advantage of new production opportunities. This conceptual oversight has been largely eliminated over the past five years or so. However, questions remain surrounding the likelihood that various adaptive strategies will actually be deployed in particular places. In this paper, we stress the importance of studying adaptation in the context of decision-making at the individual farm level and beyond.     

土地利用/土地覆被变化对区域生态环境的影响

土地利用／ 土地覆被变化对区域生态环境的影响是土地利用／ 土地覆被变化研究的重要内容。本文分析了土地利用／ 土地覆被变化对区域气候、土壤、水量和水质的影响。土地利用／ 土地覆被变化通过改变地表发射率、温室气体和痕量气体的含量影响区域气候;土地利用／土地覆被变化影响着能量交换、水交换、侵蚀与堆积、生物循环和作物生产等土壤主要生态过程,不同土地利用方式和土地覆被类型的空间组合影响着土壤养分的迁移规律;土地利用／ 土地覆被变化对水质的影响主要是通过非点源污染途径,许多非点源污染来源都同土地利用／土地覆被变化紧密联系。文中还探讨了由于人类不合理的土地利用造成的土壤侵蚀、土地退化、水资源短缺、海水入侵等生态环境问题。     

Climate change: potential impact on plant diseases

Global climate has changed since pre-industrial times. Atmospheric CO(2), a major greenhouse gas, has increased by nearly 30% and temperature has risen by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C. The intergovernmental panel on climate change predicts that with the current emission scenario, global mean temperature would rise between 0.9 and 3.5 degrees C by the year 2100. There are, however, many uncertainties that influence these predictions. Despite the significance of weather on plant diseases, comprehensive analysis of how climate change will influence plant diseases that impact primary production in agricultural systems is presently unavailable. Evaluation of the limited literature in this area suggests that the most likely impact of climate change will be felt in three areas: in losses from plant diseases, in the efficacy of disease management strategies and in the geographical distribution of plant diseases. Climate change could have positive, negative or no impact on individual plant diseases. More research is needed to obtain base-line information on different disease systems. Most plant disease models use different climatic variables and operate at a different spatial and temporal scale than do the global climate models. Improvements in methodology are necessary to realistically assess disease impacts at a global scale.     

Simulating uncertainty in climate-pest models with fuzzy numbers

Inputs in climate-pest models are commonly expressed as point estimates ('crisp' numbers), which implies perfect knowledge of the system in study. In reality, however, all model inputs harbor some level of uncertainty. This is particularly true for climate change impact assessments where the inputs (i.e., climate projections) are highly uncertain. In this study, uncertainties in climate projections were expressed as 'fuzzy' numbers; these are uncertain numbers for which one knows that there is a range of possible values and that some values are 'more possible' than others. A generic pest risk model incorporating the combined effects of temperature, soil moisture, and cold stress was implemented in a fuzzy spreadsheet environment and run with three climate scenarios: (1) present climate (control run); (2) crisp climate change; and (3) fuzzy climate change. Under the crisp climate change scenario, winter and summer temperatures and precipitation were altered using best estimates (averaged predictions from the 1995 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]). Under the fuzzy scenario, climate changes were expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers, utilizing the extremes (lowest and highest predictions from the IPCC report) in addition to the best estimates. Under each scenario, environmental favorability was calculated for six locations in two geographical regions (Central North America and Southern Europe) with two hypothetical pest species having temperate or mediterranean climate requirements. Simulations with the crisp climate change scenario suggested only minor changes in overall environmental favorability compared with the control run. When simulations were conducted with the fuzzy climate change scenario, however, important changes in environmental favorability emerged, particularly in Southern Europe. In that region, the possibility of considerably increased winter precipitation led to increased values of environmental favorability. However, the simulations also showed that this result harbored a very broad range of possible outcomes. The results support the notion that uncertainty in climate change projections must be reduced before reliable impact assessments can be achieved.     

The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils

The likely impact of climate change on the moisture regime of Scottish soils and consequently on agriculture and land use has been addressed using a novel Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach. Current estimates of changes in summer precipitation by the year 2030 are 0% with an associated uncertainty of +/- 11%. This study considers the worst case scenario of a decrease in rainfall by 11% which will lead to some low rainfall areas experiencing an increased drought risk, particularly on lighter soils. Wet areas with heavy soils could benefit from an increase in the accessibility period for machinery. As the major agricultural land in Scotland is located on the relatively dry east coast where localised problems due to drought are not uncommon even under the present climate, the detrimental effects of a decrease in rainfall for the whole of Scotland are therefore likely to outweigh the benefits. Approximately 8% of Scotland has been identified in this study as soil/climate combinations which will be susceptible to drought should summer rainfall decrease by 11% and summer temperature increase by 1.4 degrees C.     

The impact of swidden decline on livelihoods and ecosystem services in Southeast Asia: A review of the evidence from 1990 to 2015

Global economic change and policy interventions are driving transitions from long-fallow swidden (LFS) systems to alternative land uses in Southeast Asia’s uplands. This study presents a systematic review of how these transitions impact upon livelihoods and ecosystem services in the region. Over 17 000 studies published between 1950 and 2015 were narrowed, based on relevance and quality, to 93 studies for further analysis. Our analysis of land-use transitions from swidden to intensified cropping systems showed several outcomes: more households had increased overall income, but these benefits came at significant cost such as reductions of customary practice, socio-economic wellbeing, livelihood options, and staple yields. Examining the effects of transitions on soil properties revealed negative impacts on soil organic carbon, cation-exchange capacity, and aboveground carbon. Taken together, the proximate and underlying drivers of the transitions from LFS to alternative land uses, especially intensified perennial and annual cash cropping, led to significant declines in pre-existing livelihood security and the ecosystem services supporting this security. Our results suggest that policies imposing land-use transitions on upland farmers so as to improve livelihoods and environments have been misguided; in the context of varied land uses, swidden agriculture can support livelihoods and ecosystem services that will help buffer the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport

Emissions from land transport, and from road transport in particular, have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past, present and future emissions from land transport, of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality, on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation.In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however, pollutant emissions have been growing strongly, adversely affecting many populations. In addition, ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here.In the future, road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary, emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently, road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both, passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential, but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels, a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades.     

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation.

Method

We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data.

Results and discussion

The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.     

Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.     

An evaluation of indoor and outdoor biological particulate matter

The incidences of allergies, allergic diseases and asthma are increasing world wide. Global climate change is likely to impact plants and animals, as well as microorganisms. The World Health Organization, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change cite increased allergic reactions due to climate change as a growing concern. Monitoring of indoor and ambient particulate matter (PM) and the characterization of the content for biological aerosol concentrations has not been extensively performed. Samples from urban and rural North Carolina (NC), and Denver (CO), were collected and analyzed as the goal of this research. A study of PM₁₀ (<10 μm in aerodynamic diameter) and PM_2.5 (<2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) fractions of ambient bioaerosols was undertaken for a six month period to evaluate the potential for long-term concentrations. These airborne bioaerosols can induce irritational, allergic, infectious, and chemical responses in exposed individuals. Three separate sites were monitored, samples were collected and analyzed for mass and biological content (endotoxins, (1,3)-β-d-glucan and protein). Concentrations of these bioaerosols were reported as a function of PM size fraction, mass and volume of air sampled. The results indicated that higher concentrations of biologicals were present in PM₁₀ than were present in PM_2.5, except when near-roadway conditions existed. This study provides the characterization of ambient bioaerosol concentrations in a variety of areas and conditions.     

Climate changes and their impact on agriculture in Greece: a critical aspect for medium- and long-term environmental policy planning

Climate changes in Greece for the period 1990 to 2030 were estimated with the use of a climatic model (ESCAPE, Univ. of East Anglia, 1992). Four scenarios were constructed, depicting existing or potential measures for the stabilisation, reduction or phase-out of greenhouse gases. Estimates were made regarding the potential suitability zones for some crops (grain maize, grass and hot grapes), the actual crop yield in tons per hectare for chosen years, and the change in yield between 1990 and 2030 and in potential irrigation demand. The results, which indicate the potential impact of climate changes on agriculture, are important in developing medium- and long-term environmental (and land use) policy for Greece.     

A review of the impact of outdoor and indoor environmental factors on human health in China

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that global climate change has led to the increased occurrence of extreme weather...     

Future climate scenarios and rainfall--runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system.     

Humic substances—part 7: the biogeochemistry of dissolved organic carbon and its interactions with climate change

Background, aim, and scope  

Dissolved organic matter, measured as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), is an important component of aquatic ecosystems and of the global carbon cycle. It is known that changes in DOC quality and quantity are likely to have ecological repercussions. This review has four goals: (1) to discuss potential mechanisms responsible for recent changes in aquatic DOC concentrations; (2) to provide a comprehensive overview of the interactions between DOC, nutrients, and trace metals in mainly boreal environments; (3) to explore the impact of climate change on DOC and the subsequent effects on nutrients and trace metals; and (4) to explore the potential impact of DOC cycling on climate change.     

Forests under climate change and air pollution: gaps in understanding and future directions for research

Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems ("supersites") will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development.     

Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. In the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.     

Fine-scale,spatial and temporal assessment methods for feral swine disturbances to sensitive plant communities in south-central Florida

Feral swine are estimated to annually cost hundreds of millions of dollars in economic loss to property and agriculture in the USA, while their ecological consequences remain largely unmeasured. Using submeter-accurate Global Positioning System technology over a multiyear project, we are quantifying in a novel way the spatial and temporal attributes of swine rooting damage within 587 ha of ecologically sensitive wetland plant communities at Avon Park Air Force Range in south-central Florida. We delineated damage polygons from 0.0023 to 4,335 m² and were able to document recurrent damage through time at most sites during each assessment. For each polygon, we also estimated the age of damage and assigned to it a severity index, qualities of the rooting in which we detected changes in proportions over time. Spatially explicit damage assessments at fine scales conducted over several years can assist land managers in determining effects of rooting on rare plant populations, and will allow investigators to hypothesize what factors are driving patterns of this disturbance across ecologically sensitive plant communities.     

Predictive modeling of effects under global change

The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs. Models discussed relate to vegetation (e.g. crop), soil, bio-geochemistry, water, and wildlife responses to conventional, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation. Also described are models of these responses, alone and interactively, to increased CO(2), other air pollutants and UV-B radiation, as the state of the science allows. Further, models of land-use change are included. Additionally, global multiple sector models of environment, natural resources, human population dynamics, economics, energy, and political relations are reviewed for integrated impact assessment. To the extent available, information on computer software and hardware requirements is presented for the various models. The paper concludes with comments about using these technologies as they relate to ecological risk assessment for policy decision analysis. Such an effort is hampered by considerable uncertainties with the output of existing models, because of the uncertainties associated with input data and the definitions of their dose-response relationships. The concluding suggestions point the direction for new developments in modeling and analyses that are needed for the 21st century.     

Agriculture's share in the emission of trace gases affecting the climate and some cause-oriented proposals for sufficiently reducing this share

This paper discusses agriculture's share in the world-wide emissions of climate-affecting gases and in the global warming potential (GWP). Proposals also are presented to reduce these emissions adequately, using a cause-oriented approach. Largely due to the fertilization and cultivation of agriculture as well as the burning of biomass, agriculture has a very high share in the anthropogenic emissions of NH(3), N(2)O, CH(4) and CO at >95%, 81%, 70% and 52%, respectively, while its share in the NO(x) and CO(2) emissions is relatively small at 35% and 21%. The GWP of agriculture, based on annually 16.1 x 10(9) tons of CO(2), approaches 63% of the GWP of the energy sector or 80% of the GWP of its CO(2) emissions. At 34% and 32%, respectively, the main originators in the GWP of agriculture would seem to be CO(2) (changing land use) and CH(4) (animal husbandry/rice cropping/biomass burning) followed at 15% by NO(2) (technical and biological N fixation/(cultivation and recultivation/biomass burning) and 10% and 9% by CO and NO(x). The GWP of 3 German dairy cows corresponds with 13.2 tonnes CO(2) per year the GWP of two average German automobiles. However, the ozone-destroying effect of N(2)O and the climate-relevant effects of NH(3) are not yet included here. As with the therapy for other 'modern' boundary-crossing environmental damages, such as acidification or eutrophication, global climate change therapy likewise needs a therapy for the respective effects of reactive compounds of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, and sulfur also emitted by agriculture. Proposals for reducing these emissions within the agricultural sector include need-oriented plant, animal and human nutrition, more efficient external and internal nutrient recycling, the cessation of further clearing by burning, along with intensified afforestation mainly in the tropics, targeted measures to reduce nutrient losses/emissions, and measures for more efficient use of nutrients in plant, animal and human nutrition. These measures would at best result in reduced pollution of the global environment but not put it to an end. Decisive, therefore, is both the tolerable extent of mankind and its long-term sustainable way of life.