SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL WATER QUALITY VARIABILITY IN THE PIRACICABA RIVER BASIN,BRAZIL1

ABSTRACT: The spatial and temporal variability of dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), nitrate concentration and total coliform (TC) were investigated at nine sampling stations distributed along the main rivers of the Piracicaba River Basin, a 12,400 km² catchment located in São Paulo State, one of the most developed regions of Brazil. Spatially, a downstream impoverishment of water quality conditions was observed, as seen by the decrease of DO, and increase of BOD, nitrate, and TC. These changes were probably caused by accumulating downstream discharge of domestic and industrial sewage. Temporal evaluation of 18 years of data showed that DO decreased with time for the majority of the sampling stations, while BOD, nitrate, and TC increased. A law, approved at the end of 1991, proposed a new water tax for river water extraction for industrial and agricultural use. The amount of this tax is determined according to the water quality of the extracted water. Therefore, the evaluation of the water quality status in this basin is a first step to help resources managers to determine the values for this tax.     

Weighted Regressions on Time,Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), with an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs1

Hirsch, Robert M., Douglas L. Moyer, and Stacey A. Archfield, 2010. Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), With an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):857-880. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00482.x Abstract: A new approach to the analysis of long-term surface water-quality data is proposed and implemented. The goal of this approach is to increase the amount of information that is extracted from the types of rich water-quality datasets that now exist. The method is formulated to allow for maximum flexibility in representations of the long-term trend, seasonal components, and discharge-related components of the behavior of the water-quality variable of interest. It is designed to provide internally consistent estimates of the actual history of concentrations and fluxes as well as histories that eliminate the influence of year-to-year variations in streamflow. The method employs the use of weighted regressions of concentrations on time, discharge, and season. Finally, the method is designed to be useful as a diagnostic tool regarding the kinds of changes that are taking place in the watershed related to point sources, groundwater sources, and surface-water nonpoint sources. The method is applied to datasets for the nine large tributaries of Chesapeake Bay from 1978 to 2008. The results show a wide range of patterns of change in total phosphorus and in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. These results should prove useful in further examination of the causes of changes, or lack of changes, and may help inform decisions about future actions to reduce nutrient enrichment in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed.     

A Hydrologic Data Screening Procedure for Exploring Monotonic Trends and Shifts in Rainfall and Runoff Patterns

A thorough understanding of past and present hydrologic responses to changes in precipitation patterns is crucial for predicting future conditions. The main objectives of this study were to determine temporal changes in rainfall‐runoff relationship and to identify significant trends and abrupt shifts in rainfall and runoff time series. Ninety‐year rainfall and runoff time series datasets from the Gasconade and Meramec watersheds in east‐central Missouri were used to develop data screening procedure to assess changes in the rainfall and runoff temporal patterns. A statistically significant change in mean and variance was detected in 1980 in the rainfall and runoff time series within both watersheds. In addition, both the rainfall and runoff time series indicated the presence of nonstationary attributes such as statistically significant monotonic trends and/or change in mean and variance, which should be taken into consideration when using the time series to predict future scenarios. The annual peak runoff and the annual low flow in the Meramec watershed showed significant temporal changes compared to that in the Gasconade watershed. Water loss in both watersheds was found to be significantly increasing which is potentially due to the increase in groundwater pumping for water supply purposes.     

Twenty Years of New Zealand’s National Rivers Water Quality Network: Benefits of Careful Design and Consistent Operation1

Davies‐Colley, Robert J., David G. Smith, Robert C. Ward, Graham G. Bryers, Graham B. McBride, John M. Quinn, and Mike R. Scarsbrook, 2011. Twenty Years of New Zealand’s National Rivers Water Quality Network: Benefits of Careful Design and Consistent Operation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):750‐771. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00554.x Abstract: This paper reviews New Zealand’s National Rivers Water Quality Network (NRWQN), which is now in its third decade of monitoring. The NRWQN is noteworthy for being operationally stable throughout its history, and the resulting consistency is increasingly valuable for detecting water quality trends and for “anchoring” temporary special purpose monitoring campaigns. The NRWQN was carefully designed following considerable effort to learn from monitoring experiences elsewhere. Monthly visits are made to 77 sites (all near hydrometric stations) on 35 river systems that cumulatively drain about one half of the national landscape. “Core” (routinely measured) variables are: conductivity, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, visual clarity, turbidity, colored dissolved organic matter, fecal indicator bacteria, and different forms of nitrogen and phosphorus (italics indicate field measurements). Associated benthic biological monitoring comprises monthly visual assessment of periphyton and annual sampling for macro‐invertebrates. We overview the conception, design, initiation, and operational history of the NRWQN, and highlight the diverse applications of its datasets including numerous scientific applications, national‐scale modeling of material fluxes, and state‐of‐environment reporting and practical water management at both regional and national scale. The qualified success of the NRWQN can probably be attributed to careful (and parsimonious) design and consistent operation.     

DETECTING UNKNOWN INTERVENTIONS WITH APPLICATION TO FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL DATA1

To accommodate possible parameter changes in time series at times which are not specified in advance, we propose an adaptive procedure for estimating parameters and for forecasting. The mechanism for activating the adaptive procedure is a successively updated change-detection statistic. The statistic has small expected value when no change is present and has large value when change takes place - the larger the change, the larger the statistic. The statistic defines discounting factors which determine how much of the past will be used both for estimating parameters and for forecasting. The change-detection statistic is designed to effect major changes to parameter estimates and to forecasts in a discrete fashion only, as opposed to certain other adaptive procedures that react continuously to perceived fluctuations in data, and so indicate change even when parameters remain fixed. The procedure is illustrated using exponential smoothing and Holt's linear exponential smoothing and is applied to a hydrological series.     

Impact of sampling techniques on measured stormwater quality data for small streams

Science-based sampling methodologies are needed to enhance water quality characterization for setting appropriate water quality standards, developing Total Maximum Daily Loads, and managing nonpoint source pollution. Storm event sampling, which is vital for adequate assessment of water quality in small (wadeable) streams, is typically conducted by manual grab or integrated sampling or with an automated sampler. Although it is typically assumed that samples from a single point adequately represent mean cross-sectional concentrations, especially for dissolved constituents, this assumption of well-mixed conditions has received limited evaluation. Similarly, the impact of temporal (within-storm) concentration variability is rarely considered. Therefore, this study evaluated differences in stormwater quality measured in small streams with several common sampling techniques, which in essence evaluated within-channel and within-storm concentration variability. Constituent concentrations from manual grab samples and from integrated samples were compared for 31 events, then concentrations were also compared for seven events with automated sample collection. Comparison of sampling techniques indicated varying degrees of concentration variability within channel cross sections for both dissolved and particulate constituents, which is contrary to common assumptions of substantial variability in particulate concentrations and of minimal variability in dissolved concentrations. Results also indicated the potential for substantial within-storm (temporal) concentration variability for both dissolved and particulate constituents. Thus, failing to account for potential cross-sectional and temporal concentration variability in stormwater monitoring projects can introduce additional uncertainty in measured water quality data.     

PAST AND FUTURE OF ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: water resources supply and demand time series consist of several or all of the four basic characteristics: tendency, intermittency, periodicity and stochasticity. Their importance changes from one type of variables to another. Historic developments of analysis of time series in hydrology have varied significantly over the past, from the stress on search for periodicities and persistence in annual series to the emphasis on the series stochastic properties. Supply and demand series are often highly interrelated, which fact is most often neglected in planning water resources systems in general, and water storage capacities in particular. The future of series analysis in water resources will likely be by a joint use of physically-based structural analysis and the use of advanced methods of treating data by stochastic processes, statistical estimation and inference techniques. The most intriguing challenge of the future of this analysis may be the treatment of nonnormal, nonlinear and in general nonstationary hydrologic and water use time series. The proper treatment of complex multivariate processes will also challenge the specialists, especially for the purposes of transfer of information between data on variables at given points, or between data at several points of a given variable, or both.     

MATERIALS INPUT OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN: A SYNOPTIC APPRAISAL1

ABSTRACT: The complex morphometry of Lake Champlain requires that detailed, regional studies be made, and the results integrated, to yield total lake conditions. Using specific conductance measurements, and values of total dissolved solids calculated from them, we present an approach to assessing the materials budget of the lake. The sampling program involved inventorying all 319 tributaries, determining the watershed area for each, and dividing the Champlain basin into appropriate hydrographic regions. Data were obtained from samples collected from 41 selected streams (representing 97.5% of the annual water input), sampling occurring in all seasons of the year since 1970. Results indicate that over one million metric tonnes of total dissolved solids enter Lake Champlain annually, about two-thirds (63%) from the eastern (Vermont) portion and almost one-fourth (22%) from the western (New York) part of the drainage basin, the remainder (15%) entering from the south end. Of the total quantity added annually, 17.4% is retained in the lake, indicating that a solids build-up is occurring, at a significant rate. We suggest that specific conductance, and therefore total dissolved solids, be utilized as a convenient indicator of water quality conditions, and results applied to permit more efficient watershed management.     

SOME SIMPLE MODELS FOR DISCRETE VARIATE TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: Simple models are presented for use in the modeling and generation of sequences of dependent discrete random variables. The models are essentially Markov Chains, but are structurally autoregressions, and so depend on only a few parameters. The marginal distribution is an intrinsic component in the specification of each model, and the Poisson, Geometric, Negative Binomial and Binomial distributions are considered. Details are also given for the introduction of time-dependence into the means of the sequences so that seaonality can be treated simply.     

Projected Changes in Discharge in an Agricultural Watershed in Iowa

Our improved capability to adapt to the future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural United States Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socioeconomic impacts. Here, we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven global climate models part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). There is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. However, the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal related to larger projected increases in rainfall, resulting in increased trends, in particular, in the upper part of the discharge distribution (i.e., 60th percentile and above). Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be alleviated by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. We also discuss how the methodology presented in this study represents a viable approach to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering design and management in a nonstationary world.     

Evaluating Alternative Temporal Survey Designs for Monitoring Wetland Area and Detecting Changes Over Time in California

Evaluation of wetland extent and changes in extent is a foundation of many wetland monitoring and assessment programs. Probabilistic sampling and mapping provides a cost‐effective alternative to comprehensive mapping for large geographic areas. One unresolved challenge for probabilistic or design‐based approaches is how best to monitor both status (e.g., extent at a single point in time) and trends (e.g., changes in extent over time) within a single monitoring program. Existing wetland status and trends (S&T) monitoring programs employ fixed sampling locations; however, theoretical evaluation and limited implementation in other landscape monitoring areas suggest that alternative designs could increase statistical efficiency and overall accuracy. In particular, designs that employ both fixed and nonfixed sampling locations (alternately termed permanent and temporary samples), termed sampling with partial replacement (SPR), are considered to efficiently and effectively balance monitoring current status with detection of trends. This study utilized simulated sampling to assess the performance of fixed sampling locations, SPR, and strictly nonfixed designs for monitoring wetland S&T over time. Modeled changes in wetland density over time were used as inputs for sampling simulations. In contrast to previous evaluations of SPR, the results of this study support the use of a fixed sampling design and show that SPR may underestimate both S&T.     

城市空气SO2浓度时间序列的混沌特征

针对我国西北地区某燃煤型城市2002年1月1日至3月31日SO2小时浓度的时间序列资料，应用混沌重构相空间理论和分形理论，探讨了不同嵌入维下时间序列关联维的变化规律，并计算了该时间序列的Kolmogorov熵和最大Lyapunov指数。结果表明，该时间序列是一混沌时间序列，其最大预测时间为19h。     

THE PREOPERATIONAL EFFECTS OF A WATER-RESOURCES PROJECT ON PROPERTY PRICES1

ABSTRACT: Residential properties nearby a park-lake system were studied, through time-series, to detect possible changes in the land market during the period between announcement and completion of the impounding reservoir, 1962 to 1973. The time series identifies a period of increases in the values of properties which is concomitant with the announcement of the park-lake. This is followed by a second period characterized by lower prices, which ends in 1970, as construction activities take place. During construction, from 1970 to 1973, property values were found to increase rapidly.     

INTERVENTION ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY RECORDS1

The impoundment of the Kootenai River by Libby Dam caused changes in discharge and water quality in the river downstream from Lake Koocanusa. The changes observed downsteam were largely attributable to the depth of withdrawal from the reservoir and the reservoir's ability to store and mix various influent water masses. The preimpoundment and postimpoundment time series of discharge and six water quality variables were autocorrelated and exhibited strong seasonality. Intervention analysis, a technique employing Box-Jenkins time series models, was used to quantify the nature and magnitude of the changes in water quality after the construction of Libby Dam. The models were developed with data from June 1967 through February 1981 and were able to satisfactorily forecast riverine conditions from March 1981 through January 1982.     

Temporal and Spatial Turbidity Patterns Over 30 Years in a Managed Forest of Western Washington1

Abstract: Forest practices have progressively changed over the last 30 years in the Pacific Northwest to address water quality concerns. There have been some assessments of these new management practices made at a site scale but very few studies have attempted to evaluate their efficacy at reducing cumulative sediment production at a watershed scale. Such an evaluation is difficult due to the spatial and temporal variability in sediment delivery and transport processes. Due to this inherent variability, detecting a response to management changes requires a long‐term data record. We utilized a water quality dataset collected over 30 years at four locations in the Deschutes River watershed (western Washington) to assess trends in turbidity and whether sediment control procedures implemented over this time period had any detectable influence. The sample sites ranged from small headwater streams (2.4 and 3.0 km²) to the mainstem of the Deschutes River (150 km²). Declining trends in turbidity were detected at all the permanently monitored sites. The mainstem Deschutes River site, which integrates sediment processes from the entire study watershed, showed dramatic declines in turbidity even with continued active forest management. For the small basins, logging and road construction occurred in the 1970s and 1980s and turbidity declined thereafter, achieving prelogging levels by 2000. There are no temporal trends in flow that could be responsible for the observed trends in turbidity. Our results suggest that increased attention to reducing sediment production from roads and minimizing the amount of road runoff reaching stream channels has been the primary cause of the declining turbidity levels observed in this study.     

CHAOTIC FORECASTING OF DISCHARGE TIME SERIES: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the problem of forecasting the discharge time series of a river by means of a chaotic approach. To this aim, we first check for some evidence of chaotic behavior in the dynamic by considering a set of different procedures, namely, the phase portrait of the attractor, the correlation dimension, and the largest Lyapunov exponent. Their joint application seems to confirm the presence of a nonlinear deterministic dynamic of chaotic type. Second, we consider the so‐called nearest neighbors predictor and we compare it with a classical linear model. By comparing these two predictors, it seems that nonlinear river flow modeling, and in particular chaotic modeling, is an effective method to improve predictions.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF DEVELOPMENT ON FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF TWO NEW JERSEY STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Parts of the Raritan River basin in central New Jersey have undergone increasing development over the last several decades. The increasing population relies on the region's ground water and surface water sources for its residential, commercial, and industrial water supply. Urbanization, regionalized wastewater-treatment facilities, stream channel alterations, and interbasin transfers of water can all affect water availability. This pilot study was conducted to determine whether significant trends exist in the base-flow and overland-runoff characteristics of streams in two subbasins with different percentages of urban/built-up land (Anderson et at., 1976). Changes in flow characteristics that could indicate future reductions in safe water yield of the Raritan River basin were examined. Flow and flow variability of the steams draining these two subbasins have increased over time. Many of the flow measures studied experienced pronounced trend shifts about 1960. The cause of these changes cannot be readily determined from the data, nor is it clear whether the increased flow variability lies outside the natural range of flow variability of the streams draining the subbasins.     

TRENDS IN LEAD CONCENTRATIONS IN MAJOR U.S. RIVERS AND THEIR RELATION TO HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GASOLINE-LEAD CONSUMPTION1

ABSTRACT: Declines in concentrations of dissolved lead occurred at nearly two-thirds of 306 locations on major U.S. rivers from 1974 to 1985. Declines in dissolved lead concentrations are statistically significant (p < 0.10) at approximately one-third of the sampling locations. Statistically significant increases in dissolved lead concentrations occurred at only 6 percent of the sites, but are clustered in the Texas-Gulf and Lower Mississippi regions. Possible explanations for the observed trends in lead concentrations are tested through comparisons with (1) records of lead discharges from major sources including leaded-gasoline consumption and municipal- and industrial-point source discharges, (2) trends in various water-quality constituents such as pH and total alkalinity, and (3) basin characteristics such as drainage area. Statistically significant declines in lead concentrations in streams and gasoline lead (i.e., the largest source of lead at these sites) are highly coincident for the 1979 to 1980 period at most sampling locations. The greatest amount of decline in gasoline lead occurred at sites showing statistically significant downtrends in stream concentrations of lead from 1974 to 1985. No more than 5 percent of the trends in stream lead are influenced by municipal- and industrial-point sources of lead. Factors that affect the transport of dissolved lead, including lead solubility, suspended sediment, and basin characteristics such as drainage basin size, are not significantly related to trends in dissolved lead. Trends in streamflow explain no more than 7 percent of the downtrends in concentrations of lead and may partly explain the frequent increases in lead concentrations in the Texas-Gulf and Lower Mississippi regions.     

Streamflow Changes in the South Atlantic,United States During the Mid‐ and Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Repeated severe droughts over the last decade in the South Atlantic have raised concern that streamflow may be systematically decreasing, possibly due to climate variability. We examined the monthly and annual trends of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature in the South Atlantic for the time periods: 1934‐2005, 1934‐1969, and 1970‐2005. Streamflow and climate (temperature and precipitation) trends transitioned ca. 1970. From 1934 to 1969, streamflow and precipitation increased in southern regions and decreased in northern regions; temperature decreased throughout the South Atlantic. From 1970 to 2005, streamflow decreased, precipitation decreased, and temperature increased throughout the South Atlantic. It is unclear whether these will be continuing trends or simply part of a long‐term climatic oscillation. Whether these streamflow trends have been driven by climatic or anthropogenic changes, water resources management faces challenging prospects to adapt to decadal‐scale persistently wet and dry hydrologic conditions.