The role of safety research in road safety management

Mobility is a matter of great importance in daily life: However, it also causes costs and involves accident risks. To make mobility safer and reduce accident risks, a scientifically based road safety management is needed. Within such a safety management system, a concert of adequate and efficient strategies, tools and measures is developed and implemented. To ensure that the chosen means are efficient they should be derived from research evidence. Secondly, research is also needed to regularly monitor the impact of road safety management tools, serving as a “controlling instrument” for the appropriateness of safety management efforts. This article explains the main strategic aspects of safety management in Germany and illustrates it exemplarily on the basis of two recently implemented road safety measures.     

On prediction in road safety

Prediction is about potential outcomes: what will happen if and what would have happened if. The first question arises when safety targets are set, the second when the effect of an intervention on safety is to be evaluated. There are many ways to predict. For the same data different prediction methods produce different predictions. What targets are set and what estimates of intervention effect are produced will depend on what method of prediction is chosen. Therefore one has to determine what method tends to predict best. To do so empirically one asks what method would have predicted best had it been applied in the past and then one assumes, inductively, that the same would apply in the future. Quantitative measures of prediction quality are suggested and it is shown how these measures of prediction quality allow one to determine which of two prediction methods should be preferred.The suggested approach was applied to two data sets: The time series of motor vehicle accident fatalities in Province A and in Province B. On the basis of this analysis one may draw tentative conclusions for these jurisdictions and the methods tested; one can say what method seems preferable, what is the average size of bias than needs to be corrected and how accurate is the prediction likely to be. Broader conclusions will emerge once many additional methods of prediction are applied to data from many other jurisdictions and pertaining to a variety of circumstances.     

An outlook on Dutch road safety in 2020; future developments of exposure,crashes and policy

This paper discusses the method used for an outlook on road safety in the Netherlands until 2020. The objectives of the outlook are to judge the feasibility of the Dutch road safety policy targets and to estimate the effects in 2020 of new measures. The outlook consists of baseline forecasts assuming the unchanged continuation of the effect of current road safety policy as a starting point, and the effect of new measures on top of that. We used four different mobility scenarios, derived from a comprehensive study about the macro-economic development of Dutch society until 2040. In the mobility scenario with the largest growth it appeared doubtful whether the policy targets of that time for the maximum number of fatalities in 2020 (580) can be achieved. An extensive inventory of new measures after 2010 produced five already intended new measures, the effects of which were estimated. The results show that the target of maximum 580 fatalities in 2020 can probably be met. The recently adjusted policy target of 500 fatalities in 2020 is also feasible if additional new measures are taken.     

我国道路交通安全管理主要问题分析及对策研究

根据近几年来我国道路安全状况的实际,针对目前我国道路交通安全管理的现状,本文对我国道路基础设施建设、我国道路交通安全管理现状和近几年的事故数据进行了分析,找出我国道路交通安全管理中存在的问题,并提出了针对这些问题的解决方法.     

我国道路交通安全管理主要问题分析及对策研究

根据近几年来我国道路安全状况的实际，针对目前我国道路交通安全管理的现状，本文对我国道路基础设施建设、我国道路交通安全管理现状和近几年的事故数据进行了分析，找出我国道路交通安全管理中存在的问题，并提出了针对这些问题的解决方法。     

The need for a systems theory approach to road safety

In other hazardous complex socio-technical systems in society, e.g. nuclear power and aviation, systems-theoretical assumptions are considered a promising way to better understand and manage safety. In this paper, two fundamental approaches to road safety were assessed in the light of a systems theory approach. One approach, is based on a premise where individual road-users are solely responsible when crashes occur. In that case countermeasures are aimed at altering the behavior of the road-user in order to adapt him/her to the road transport system. The other approach, the so-called zero-tolerance position, or Vision Zero approach, to road safety is built around two axioms; the system must be adapted to the psychological and physical conditions and limitations of the human being and the responsibility for road safety must be shared between the road-users and the designers and professional operators of the system. It was found that the most important determinants of systems theory are basically not present in the road-user approach. However, even if the Vision Zero approach clearly takes step towards systems theory, it does leave room for articulating even more features of systems theory.     

林区公路的管护与交通事故

简要地介绍了伊春林区公路运输中存在的问题，分析了交通事故的原因，提出了具体整改措施。     

Road safety in France: The hard path toward science-based policy

Very considerable advances have been made in road safety over the long term and especially in the recent years. This improvement was achieved in part due to the effectiveness of French decision-making system, even if it remained very perfectible. An analysis of the road safety management system is carried out in order to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the organisation of road safety in France.The organisation of road safety in France is extremely centralised. The basis of road safety policy at the national level rests on an extensive information system (covering accidents, risk exposure, speed, utilisation of mobile phones) and on analyses of road risk (the risks attributable to alcohol, speed and the use of mobile phones).This statistical information and these risk models are integrated in risk management tools such as monitoring, ranking and policing. Monitoring makes it possible to track the development of road safety, bench-marking to compare the performance of the country’s different departments with each other, and policy making to refine the details of a policy.The development of the governance of road risk is leading managers and decision-makers to perfect data-gathering procedures, standardise and simplify the analytical tools used, and broaden the range of risks covered.     

Introducing the STAMP method in road tunnel safety assessment

After the tremendous accidents in European road tunnels over the past decade, many risk assessment methods have been proposed worldwide, most of them based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). Although QRAs are helpful to address physical aspects and facilities of tunnels, current approaches in the road tunnel field have limitations to model organizational aspects, software behavior and the adaptation of the tunnel system over time. This paper reviews the aforementioned limitations and highlights the need to enhance the safety assessment process of these critical infrastructures with a complementary approach that links the organizational factors to the operational and technical issues, analyze software behavior and models the dynamics of the tunnel system. To achieve this objective, this paper examines the scope for introducing a safety assessment method which is based on the systems thinking paradigm and draws upon the STAMP model. The method proposed is demonstrated through a case study of a tunnel ventilation system and the results show that it has the potential to identify scenarios that encompass both the technical system and the organizational structure. However, since the method does not provide quantitative estimations of risk, it is recommended to be used as a complementary approach to the traditional risk assessments rather than as an alternative.     

我国道路交通安全教育培训思考

统计数据显示,我国2007-2009年道路运输事故呈下降趋势。但道路运输事故造成的死亡人数远远高于煤炭事故造成的死亡人数,道路交通安全形势依然很严峻。交通安全形势严峻的主要原因之一就是人为因素,加强对交通参与者的相关教育培训,提高安全意识,规范安全行为,是改善交通安全形势的根本途径。本文系统分析了我国的安全教育环境、交通文化、交通安全法律法规及交通安全教育培训存在问题,提出了改善我国交通安全教育的措施及建议。     

我国工伤事故趋势与安全生产政策干预力度量化关系分析

通过专家咨询讨论设计调研表格,采用德尔菲法对不同类安全生产政策影响度进行了量化分析.在政策干预效力分析的基础上,建立了政策时效干预度计算模型,并采用该模型计算得出1978年以来我国各年度的安全生产政策干预度分值.采用量化统计分析的方法,对1978年-2006年我国工伤事故趋势与安全生产政策干预力度的关系进行了分析,从而为我国安全生产宏观调控政策的制定与实施提供理论指导.     

Nautical safety and efficiency: simulation and reality

The paper deals with training and research using maritime simulation techniques to provide cost-effective and safe solutions to maritime transportation problems. In order to reduce the probability of accidents, training and research is required in which the human factors are fully taken into account.     

Measuring and understanding road safety performance at local territorial level

Road safety performance has traditionally been measured at national level, because the national authorities have assumed main responsibility for managing road safety of citizens. With the rise of EU governance, the role of national government has slightly decreased while the role of local authorities has been reinforced in many countries, creating a new playfield for policy actions. Assessing road safety performance at local territorial level may provide new inputs needed to trigger further improvements in road safety, as it brings about a higher accountability of policy makers and brings relevant issues closer to citizens. The measures and methods for such evaluation have now become broadly available and their application may bring a difference in current pace of road safety improvements. An example of the application of full Bayes spatio-temporal model on local road risk data is provided, illustrating the potential of local areal analysis for a better road safety management.     

我国地铁运营公共现场安全防范效率研究

城市化进程的加速导致了人口、交通和环境的日益恶化,有限的地上空间资源即使过度开发也不堪重负,使得人们转而求诸于地下空间的利用,地铁因其安全、准时、高效等特点成为解决地上交通矛盾的有效手段,也成为目前地下空间应用的重要领域.地铁自问世以来,其安全问题一直如影随形、备受瞩目,随着建设规模的不断扩大,基于效率的降低成本与基于安全的加大投入之间产生了巨大的矛盾分歧.依托安全经济学和投入产出理论提出安全效率的概念界定及表达框架,并选取地铁楼梯进行案例分析,验证其可行性和可计量性.该量化模型的提出有助于在同时考虑安全与效率时提供决策参考,从而指导项目安全投入的合理配置,提高资金的使用效率.     

Safety climate factors, group differences and safety behaviour in road construction

This study determines the factor structure of safety climate within a road construction organization using a modified version of the safety climate questionnaire (SCQ). It also investigates the relationship between safety climate and safety performance. The SCQ was administered to 192 employees from two districts and in two job categories — construction and maintenance. A behavioural observation measure of safety performance was also developed. Factor analysis derived six factors, which were similar to those obtained in an earlier study using the SCQ. Differences in the safety climate of job sub-groups were found on two of the factors. No differences between the two districts were found. No relationship was found between safety climate and the safety performance measure. While identical safety climate factors cannot apply to all organizations, some general safety climate factors may emerge. Discussion focuses upon the measurement of safety climate.     

强化交通安全综合监管——记“道路交通动态监管工作现场会”

2009年4月11日,浙江舟山岱山县一艘渔船在150海区9小区锚泊时,被一艘不明轮船碰撞沉没,造成渔船上12名船员掉入海里,其中2人获救,10人死亡。