Strengthening incentives for efficient road safety policy priorities: The roles of cost–benefit analysis and road pricing

This paper discusses how incentives for setting efficient priorities in road safety policy can be strengthened. Efficient priorities are characterised by the use of cost-effective road safety measures. Cost-effective road safety measures can be identified by means of cost-benefit analyses. Studies of the actual priorities in road safety policy, in particular in the Scandinavian countries, suggest that these priorities are inefficient, i.e. characterised by the non-use or sub-optimal use of cost-effective road safety measures as well as an extensive use of ineffective road safety measures. This occurs despite the fact that road safety policy analyses have included extensive cost-benefit analyses of road safety measures. It would thus appear that cost-benefit analyses do not necessarily generate a sufficient incentive to implement cost-effective road safety measures. Possible reasons for this are discussed in the paper. It is argued that a large part of the monetary benefits of road safety measures, as estimated in cost-benefit analyses, are not subject to market transactions, and do therefore not manifest themselves in the form of increased income or higher profits. While cost-benefit analyses are indispensable as a means of identifying cost-effective road safety measures, their influence on actual road safety policy needs to be strengthened by providing additional incentives for the use of cost-effective road safety measures. It is suggested that a system of road pricing could generate such incentives. A brief sketch of a hypothetical system of road pricing is given and some problems associated with the implementation of this system are discussed.     

安全投资经济分析与效益评价

安全投资分析的目的是实现必要的安全功能,减少损失,保障企业的生产安全,以便集中投资,获取最大的安全效益。笔者给出了安全效益的新定义,以安全价值和边际效益分析为基础,结合企业安全生产实际,采用FTA法,分析安全所具有的功能与所耗成本的关系。揭示安全投入在生产经营活动中的作用,发现和消除不必要的安全投入,提高安全资金的利用率,以便优选安全措施方案和确定安全投资的方向,选择最优经济投入方案。运用数学方法,分析在多种生产要素限制条件下,安全投资对社会和其他方面影响的最优化问题。采用技术经济方法,评价净现值、内部收益率和投资回收期各指标是否符合设定值,确保安全投资项目的可行性,以利于人们对安全投入的认识,强化企业安全投入工作。     

我国道路交通安全规划基本框架研究

在分析我国道路交通安全形势及发展趋势的基础上,阐述《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法》、《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法实施条例》所要求的制定我国道路交通安全规划的重要性,以及道路交通安全规划对预防道路交通事故的重要指导意义和现实意义。研究发达国家道路交通安全规划的框架结构和规划内容;从宏观的角度提出我国交通安全规划定位的高起点要求;探讨了规划的基本框架结构———规划的实施目标、战略重点和政策保障措施及其相互关系;针对我国实际情况创造性地提出了我国道路交通安全规划非单一性的实施目标;给出了确保规划目标顺利完成应优先考虑的战略重点以及国家政策保障措施。     

Towards a method to forecast the effectiveness of national road safety programmes

During the last three decades a more rational approach to political decision making has produced an increasing demand for scientific evaluation. A common understanding of evidence-based policy is that any new measures should have been proven to be effective. At best, these kinds of methodologically sound evaluation studies show the effect of a measure in a given situation. The results are then an essential basis for the design of a broader safety policy. However, at present there is generally little understanding of the effect of the measure in another situation, or of how it would interact with other measures in a programme. Yet, it is precisely such questions that need to be answered if the requirements of policy makers are to be met. Politicians need to be able to estimate whether the expected benefits of a programme justify the investment. Therefore, evidence-based road safety policy should not rely solely on evaluation studies of single measures and ex-post assessments of safety programmes. The method outlined here is for the ex-ante estimation of the potential of a road safety programme, which takes into account existing scientific research, an estimate of the degree of implementation that can be expected at a certain point in time, and the interaction between individual measures.     

Determinants of safety priorities in transport – The effect of personality,worry, optimism,attitudes and willingness to pay

Much research within risk has investigated risk perception and how risk behaviour is understood by the public. One goal of risk research is to understand how people perceive and interpret risk to facilitate safe behaviour. This is seen as important for many different reasons, one being because policy measures might be more effective when they address and understand individual differences in beliefs and perceptions of a target group (Steg, L., Sievers, I., 2000. Cultural theory and individual perceptions of environmental risks. Environment and Behavior 32 (2), 250–269). The main aim of this study was to investigate what is most important in regard to safety priorities. Three personality assets – anxiety, excitement-seeking and trust – were first examined. Further factors were driver optimism, worrying about transport risks, willingness to pay to increase safety, and negative attitudes toward traffic rules (as a driver). The results are based upon two questionnaire surveys carried out among a representative sample of the Norwegian public in 2004. The results showed that worry was the most important predictor of safety priorities. In addition, negative attitudes towards rules were also found to have an impact on priority. The proposed model explained 44% of the variance of safety priority. This knowledge gives additional information to improve the success of interventions because it will develop the ability to target those who consider safety to be of low priority and guide them to modify their attitudes. This may in turn increase their value of safety.     

An empirical bayes safety evaluation of tram/streetcar signal and lane priority measures in Melbourne

Objective: Streetcars/tram systems are growing worldwide, and many are given priority to increase speed and reliability performance in mixed traffic conditions. Research related to the road safety impact of tram priority is limited. This study explores the road safety impacts of tram priority measures including lane and intersection/signal priority measures.

Method: A before–after crash study was conducted using the empirical Bayes (EB) method to provide more accurate crash impact estimates by accounting for wider crash trends and regression to the mean effects. Before–after crash data for 29 intersections with tram signal priority and 23 arterials with tram lane priority in Melbourne, Australia, were analyzed to evaluate the road safety impact of tram priority.

Results: The EB before–after analysis results indicated a statistically significant adjusted crash reduction rate of 16.4% after implementation of tram priority measures. Signal priority measures were found to reduce crashes by 13.9% and lane priority by 19.4%. A disaggregate level simple before–after analysis indicated reductions in total and serious crashes as well as vehicle-, pedestrian-, and motorcycle-involved crashes. In addition, reductions in on-path crashes, pedestrian-involved crashes, and collisions among vehicles moving in the same and opposite directions and all other specific crash types were found after tram priority implementation.

Conclusions: Results suggest that streetcar/tram priority measures result in safety benefits for all road users, including vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists. Policy implications and areas for future research are discussed.     

Ranking and selecting dangerous crash locations: correcting for the number of passengers and Bayesian ranking plots

INTRODUCTION: In this paper a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate how big the impact would be on the current ranking of crash locations in Flanders (Belgium) when only taking into account the most serious injury per crash instead of all the injured occupants. RESULTS: Results show that this would lead to a different selection of 23.8% of the 800 sites that are currently considered as dangerous. CONCLUSIONS: Considering this impact quantity, the researchers want to sensitize government that giving weight to the severity of the crash can correct for the bias that occurs when the number of occupants of the vehicles are subject to coincidence. Additionally, probability plots are generated to provide policy makers with a scientific instrument with intuitive appeal to select dangerous road locations on a statistically sound basis. Impact on industry Considering the impact quantity of giving weight to the severity of the crash instead of to all the injured occupants of the vehicle on the ranking of crash sites, the authors want to sensitize government to carefully choose the criteria for ranking and selecting crash locations in order to achieve an enduring and successful traffic safety policy. Indeed, giving weight to the severity of the crash can correct for the bias that occurs when the number of occupants of the vehicles are subject to coincidence. However, it is up to the government to decide which priorities should be stressed in the traffic safety policy. Then, the appropriate weighting value combination can be chosen to rank and select the most dangerous crash locations. Additionally, the probability plots proposed in this paper can provide policy makers with a scientific instrument with intuitive appeal to select dangerous road locations on a statistically sound basis. Note that, in practice, one should not only rank the crash locations based on the benefits that can be achieved from tackling these locations. Future research is also needed to incorporate the costs of infrastructure measures and other actions that these crash sites require in order to enhance the safety on these locations. By balancing these costs and benefits against each other, the crash locations can then be ranked according to the order in which they should be prioritized.     

Benchmarking road safety performances of countries

In order to obtain political interest in road safety problems and to learn from other countries’ ‘good practices’, it is often helpful to compare one’s own safety situation with that of other countries. In a number of projects tools have been developed for such comparisons. These tools range from simple ratings of countries on their safety outcomes, such as the annual number of fatalities per capita or per kilometre driven by (motor)vehicles to more comprehensive comparisons.These comparisons not only show differences in safety between countries, but to a certain extent also explain such differences in terms of their safety background and measures taken. Finally, tools have been defined to support road safety policy makers in developing possible safety measures or actions. Procedures for such complex safety comparisons have been developed and tested in several so-called SUNflower studies.This promising approach can be further developed into standard procedures for safety comparisons between all countries in the European Union, and other countries worldwide. This paper wishes to outline the development of such standards for the benchmarking of road safety and safety trends as well as procedures for quantifying safety performances of countries.Starting point of this conceptual framework is the so-called SUNflower-pyramid in which three types of indicators are distinguished. The first one of these, the road safety performance indicator, is called an outcome indicator and is based on the number of killed and injured road users. The second indicator type indicates the quality of the implementation of road safety policies: the implementation performance indicators. The third type of indicator indicates the quality of response in policy documents to improve road safety (policy performance indicator). The three types of indicators are embedded in a policy context: the structure and culture of a country, which are considered as background variables.This paper sets out to describe the framework for the development of a comprehensive set of indicators to benchmark road safety performances of countries or of sub-national jurisdictions. The paper also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of combining such indicators and if combined, how to aggregate how different indicators in one composite performance index. It is argued to group countries in different classes with more or less comparable countries. Different procedures are used for this grouping. The results are promising and it is recommended to work with classes of countries.     

电动自行车安全特性分析

电动自行车作为自行车的升级产品,具有广泛的发展前景。笔者在详细分析其发展影响因素、管理问题、交通特性、安全特性等以及借鉴国外管理政策的基础上,对电动自行车的安全特性进行详细分析,指出电动自行车的设计时速与单车质量是影响其安全特性的主要因素;同时提出加大优先发展公交力度,合理调节城市交通结构,引导电动自行车发展和使用,对其要严格控制,规范电动自行车的出行行为;强调要实现电动自行车的管理和发展模式由事后治理型,逐渐向保障型、预防型交通方式转变,以促进电动自行车的健康发展。     

An outlook on Dutch road safety in 2020; future developments of exposure,crashes and policy

This paper discusses the method used for an outlook on road safety in the Netherlands until 2020. The objectives of the outlook are to judge the feasibility of the Dutch road safety policy targets and to estimate the effects in 2020 of new measures. The outlook consists of baseline forecasts assuming the unchanged continuation of the effect of current road safety policy as a starting point, and the effect of new measures on top of that. We used four different mobility scenarios, derived from a comprehensive study about the macro-economic development of Dutch society until 2040. In the mobility scenario with the largest growth it appeared doubtful whether the policy targets of that time for the maximum number of fatalities in 2020 (580) can be achieved. An extensive inventory of new measures after 2010 produced five already intended new measures, the effects of which were estimated. The results show that the target of maximum 580 fatalities in 2020 can probably be met. The recently adjusted policy target of 500 fatalities in 2020 is also feasible if additional new measures are taken.     

Measuring and understanding road safety performance at local territorial level

Road safety performance has traditionally been measured at national level, because the national authorities have assumed main responsibility for managing road safety of citizens. With the rise of EU governance, the role of national government has slightly decreased while the role of local authorities has been reinforced in many countries, creating a new playfield for policy actions. Assessing road safety performance at local territorial level may provide new inputs needed to trigger further improvements in road safety, as it brings about a higher accountability of policy makers and brings relevant issues closer to citizens. The measures and methods for such evaluation have now become broadly available and their application may bring a difference in current pace of road safety improvements. An example of the application of full Bayes spatio-temporal model on local road risk data is provided, illustrating the potential of local areal analysis for a better road safety management.     

A new approach for resource allocation for black spot treatment (case study: The road network of Iran)

Introduction: Currently, spatial and temporal distribution of safety resources in Iran is entirely based on expert opinions, regardless of network priorities. Considering the lack of resources for implementing safety treatments, prioritizing unsafe points is an important and complicated issue where the effectiveness of each safety treatment option should be thoroughly investigated. The political, social, and environmental aspects should also be taken into consideration, including social and political pressures and officials talks on less important topics. Obviously, this inappropriate resource allocation poses a serious challenge to the expected goals. In this study, a methodology based on economic and social issues is proposed to optimize the annual budget allocation for eliminating or reducing the risk of accident-prone points. In this methodology, the spatial and temporal distribution of budget is determined using a mathematical model aimed to maximize the benefits of reducing the accidents after deducting the costs of implementing the safety countermeasures. The outputs of this model include the safety countermeasure alternatives and a five-year time schedule for implementing them, or the alternative of no action with regard to budget, social, and judicial constraints. In order to evaluate the proposed method, it is applied to the road network of Iran and the results are compared with those of the conventional method that is currently used for resource allocation in this country. The results show that the proposed method leads to 15% higher benefits compared to the conventional method. Moreover, this method makes 641 safe points, which is about 17% more than the safe points resulted from the existing method. Therefore, the proposed method brings about a safer network as a result of the optimal allocation of available resources.     

北京市道路交通安全现状分析及控制策略研究

在分析北京市道路交通安全形势以及事故特点的基础上,运用交通冲突理论分析道路交通事故发生的机理,论述道路交通事故发生的过程。并从安全系统工程学角度,使用交通事故显性/隐性致因模型对道路交通事故的致因因素进行分析,强调管理因素的重要性。最后,结合北京市道路交通现状,综合运用3E对策,讨论了改善道路交通安全的控制策略。通过加大违章行为惩罚力度、培养安全文化、建立道路交通事故应急救援体系以及应用智能交通技术等措施,消除道路交通系统中人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态,提高北京市道路交通安全水平。     

Is the effect of quantified road safety targets sustainable?

Recent studies have shown that the setting of road safety targets is associated with a substantial reduction in road fatalities in the short-term. Although such targets may not themselves be responsible for the reduction in fatalities, they serve as a useful measure of the intention and commitment of road authorities to formulate timely road safety measures that lead to the achievement of the target. A quantified target is regarded as one of the key components of a road safety strategy. However, few studies have examined the degree of commitment and attention of road authorities to such targets in the long-term. In this study, we revisit the effectiveness of the quantified road safety targets set by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, but with a different method, time scale, and group of comparison countries. We not only evaluate the associations between quantified targets and road fatality levels, but also measure the changes in the time-series trends in road fatalities over the long-term. The results indicate that all seven treatment countries analyzed experienced desirable changes in the time-series trend in road fatalities during the period under study, which implies an increase in road safety improvement over time.     

Methodological application of system dynamics for evaluating traffic safety policy

System dynamics (SDs) is a methodology that can be used to understand the behavior and dynamics of complex systems over time. SD utilizes a range of tools and techniques such as influence and causal loop diagrams, computer simulation and optimization. SD has been used to facilitate the analysis of complex physical and social systems, e.g. water resources, climate change and industrial accidents. One of the key reasons for its growing popularity is that it allows policy experimentation and facilitates the discussion of ‘what-if’ scenarios. Within the realm of road traffic research, SD has been primarily used to examine micro level issues such as the interactions between the driver, infrastructure and the vehicle. Even though such micro level analysis are important, macro traffic safety policies can create more sustainable systems that pre-empt safety issues and reduce likelihood of traffic accidents. This paper develops two models to demonstrate how the methodology of SD can facilitate and encourage macro and meso level analysis of traffic safety policy. The first model is used to assess policy options so as to encourage the purchase of cars with higher safety ratings. The second model, is used to evaluate the impact of public transport policies on travel time and traffic safety considerations. The strength and weaknesses of the SD methodology in road transport/safety analysis are also examined. It is suggested that SD is most appropriate for formulating macro level policy as it can account for the dynamic complexity associated with the road transport system.     

加强安全生产问题的几点思考

安全生产是创建和谐社会的基础和前提，是可持续发展的基本保障，也是发展我国对外贸易的必然要求。为此，应制定安全生产专项规划，提高安全生产宏观调控能力；综合运用经济政策，创新监管方式和手段；强化监督监察，严格事故的责任追究；加大投入力度，建立安全生产投入保障机制；加强企业的科学管理，监督安全生产；实施科教兴安战略，依靠科技进步提高安全生产水平。     

Can post encroachment time substitute intersection characteristics in crash prediction models?

IntroductionTransportation safety analyses have traditionally relied on crash data. The limitations of these crash data in terms of timeliness and efficiency are well understood and many studies have explored the feasibility of using alternative surrogate measures for evaluation of road safety. Surrogate safety measures have the potential to estimate crash frequency, while requiring reduced data collection efforts relative to crash data based measures. Traditional crash prediction models use factors such as traffic volume, sight distance, and grade to make risk and exposure estimates that are combined with observed crashes, generally using an Empirical Bayes method, to obtain a final crash estimate. Many surrogate measures have the notable advantage of not directly requiring historical crash data from a site to estimate safety. Post Encroachment Time (PET) is one such measure and represents the time difference between a vehicle leaving the area of encroachment and a conflicting vehicle entering the same area. The exact relationship between surrogate measures, such as PET, and crashes in an ongoing research area.MethodThis paper studies the use of PET to estimate crashes between left-turning vehicles and opposing through vehicles for its ability to predict opposing left-turn crashes. By definition, a PET value of 0 implies the occurrence of a crash and the closer the value of PET is to 0, the higher the conflict risk.ResultsThis study shows that a model combining PET and traffic volume characteristic (AADT or conflicting volume) has better predictive power than PET alone. Further, it was found that PET may be capturing the impact of certain other intersection characteristics on safety as inclusion of other intersection characteristics such as sight distance, grade, and other parameters result in only marginal impacts on predictive capacity that do not justify the increased model complexity.     

Impact of medical fitness to drive policies in preventing property damage,injury, and death from motor vehicle collisions in Ontario,Canada

Introduction: Drivers with medical conditions and functional impairments are at increased collision risk. A challenge lies in identifying the point at which such risk becomes unacceptable to society and requires mitigating measures. This study models the road safety impact of medical fitness-to-drive policy in Ontario. Method: Using data from 2005 to 2014, we estimated the losses to road safety incurred during the time medically-at-risk drivers were under review, as well as the savings to road safety accrued as a result of licensing decisions made after the review process. Results: While under review, drivers with medical conditions had an age- and sex-standardized collision rate no different from the general driver population, suggesting no road safety losses occurred (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.93–1.12). Licensing decisions were estimated to have subsequently prevented 1,211 (95% CI: 780–1,730) collisions, indicating net road safety savings resulting from medical fitness to drive policies. However, more collisions occurred than were prevented for drivers with musculoskeletal disorders, sleep apnea, and diabetes. We theorize on these findings and discuss its multiple implications. Conclusions: Minimizing the impact of medical conditions on collision occurrence requires robust policies that balance fairness and safety. It is dependent on efforts by academic researchers (who study fitness to drive); policymakers (who set driver medical standards); licensing authorities (who make licensing decisions under such standards); and clinicians (who counsel patients on their driving risk and liaise with licensing authorities). Practical Applications: Further efforts are needed to improve understanding of the effects of medical conditions on collision risk, especially for the identified conditions and combinations of conditions. Results reinforce the value of optimizing the processes by which information is solicited from physicians in order to better assess the functional impact of drivers’ medical conditions on driving and to take suitable licensing action.     

Introducing roadside hazard severity indicator based on evidential reasoning approach

Safety experts have, in recent years, been attentive to roadside accident severity and occurrence. Hitherto, to prioritize road segment hazardousness, there have been little efforts to quantify a well defined indicator. In this regard, the existing indicators are usually very plain and the overall configuration of roadside is rated by experts with an exact number describing its condition. Hence, the uncertainties which come with the subjective judgments cannot be regarded as of any substance. This research contribution therefore presents a procedure to assess the road safety (roadside safety indicator) by means of the evidential reasoning (ER) approach. The betterment of ER as opposed to the available procedures for roadside safety assessment is that the proposed approach makes allowance for the uncertainties which may arise from individual judgments. Additionally, when there is a dearth of evidence concerning factors which affect roadside hazardousness severity to collate several roadside segments, this procedure will offer the benefits of utilizing the maximum/minimum utility function. With the aid of the drawn indicator, organizations and agencies responsible for ensuring road safety can reach more flexible decisions to set in-place uncertain planning and road segments priorities. This indicator can also be utilized as a variable to include roadside conditions in crash severity prediction models. A field case study has also been carried out in an attempt to follow and validate the proposed approach which is based on the run-off accident history for a sample road segments. The crash data confirm the suggested indicator.     

基于利益相关者分析的安全生产投资社会评价研究

在利益相关者分析基础上建立的评价模型指出安全生产投资利益相关者分析的范围、任务和原则,通过分析各利益相关者的损益及成本收益分担情况,指出安全生产投资利益调整的目的、方式以及政策建议。对安全生产投资社会评价的研究,不仅完善了安全生产投资的评价体系,也为制定安全生产经济政策、解决我国企业缺乏安全生产投资主动性及投资不足的问题提供依据。