实验室危化品事故因素分析

本文针对目前实验室管理存在的薄弱环节,分析论述了实验室危险化学品事故多发的原因,尤其针对实验室危险化学品管理提出相应加强的措施.     

聚类和灰色关联度在建筑施工事故影响因素分析中的应用

建筑业是高危行业,其安全生产状况一直受到社会各界的关注.针对建筑施工过程中监管重点难以把握、施工事故多发的现状,选取1997-2006年发生的建筑施工事故数据,以多发事故高处坠落为例,通过拆分、合并、剔除筛选出10种引发高处坠落施工事故的影响因素;通过建筑施工事故因素的聚类分析,获得三类影响因素,即“人—管理—物”;应用灰色关联度分析,对各类影响因素的灰色关联度进行排序,从而找出建筑施工过程的薄弱环节,为指导施工现场安全管理人员制定有针对性监管措施和预防建筑施工事故的发生提供方法支持.     

海氏事故致因论的建筑事故例证与分析

海因里希于1931年在其<工业事故预防-管理手段>*一书中,首次提出了他的事故致因理论,其内容为"事故是由类似于多米诺骨牌一样的因果链所引起的".这个因果链为"人成长的社会环境或遗传因素(第一块骨牌)形成了他本身的某方面的缺欠(第二块骨牌),这个缺欠导致工作时他有不安全行为的和物(如机械设备等)的某方面的不安全状态发生(第三块骨牌),人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致事故(第四块骨牌)的发生,事故再最终导致人员发生伤害(第五块骨牌)."     

Modeling the major accident prevention legislation change process within Europe

The factors giving impulse to changing major accident prevention legislation within Europe, the so-called Seveso Directive, have not been thoroughly studied and molded into an understandable model thus far. For example the exact relationship between major industrial accidents and an ever changing legislation is still unexplored. This paper thoroughly investigates the parameters having influenced the change of the 1996 Seveso II Directive into the 2003 Seveso Directive Amendment 2003/105/EC and develops the accompanying legislation change process. The official major accident reports of Baia Mare, Enschede and Toulouse are studied in-depth, as well as many other official EU documents. Furthermore, experts from academia, government and industry who witnessed and/or participated into the legislation change process were interviewed in-depth. More profound insights into the societal debate following a major accident may help private companies to adapt their safety management system and their prevention policies, and may aid the legislator to develop more efficient and effective regulations. This way, the societal demand to change legislation in an ad hoc manner may be unpressurized.     

Human and organisational factors in the operational phase of safety instrumented systems: A new approach

The international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, which provide a general framework for the design and implementation of safety instrumented systems, require quantification of the achieved risk reduction, expressed as a safety integrity level (SIL). Human and organisational factors affect the performance of safety instrumented systems during operation and may threaten the achieved SIL, but this is usually not explicitly accounted for. This article presents a new approach to address human and organisational factors in the operational phase of safety instrumented systems. This approach gives a prediction of the operational SIL and can also be used to improve safety. It shows which human and organisational factors are most in need of improvement and it provides guidance for preventive or corrective action. Finally, the approach can be used as part of a SIL monitoring strategy in order to maintain the achieved SIL at the required level during the operational phase.     

Accident models and organisational factors in air transport: The need for multi-method models

Event analysis is needed to learn and improve safety. In air transport, ‘occurrences’ are routinely reported by pilots and air traffic controllers, and in-flight data analysis systems automatically monitor aircraft system behaviour and capture parameter threshold exceedances. The safety analyst of a large airline has to analyse dozens of occurrences each day. To understand why events happened the analyst has to go beyond the given information and make causal inferences. The analyst is able to do this for causal factors closely related in time and space to the event itself by applying individual knowledge and expertise. But typically the result of the analysis is ad hoc reaction to each individual event. Systematic analysis is needed to find areas of improvement for factors that are further removed from the event (latent factors). New tools are needed to help the analyst in this respect. There is a need for models that represent possible causal event sequence scenarios that include technical, human, and organisational factors. Building such models is a huge task, and requires the combination of detailed knowledge of all aspects of the system, processing huge amounts of data, a substantial mathematical background and the ability to capture this all in a user friendly software tool to be used by the safety analysts. Experience in Causal Modelling of Air Transportation System (CATS) in the Netherlands and similar projects in FAA and Eurocontrol in aviation shows that this is indeed a formidable task, but it has to be done to further improve safety.     

Exploring the social and organisational aspects of human factors integration: A framework and case study

In this paper we first outline a framework which aims to capture some of the social and organisational aspects of human factors integration (HFI) which have been outlined by previous research. The framework was partly used to design a set of interview questions that were used with a case study of a human factors team working with the UK defence industry. The findings from the case study revealed a number of barriers which accord with previous research in the domain of HFI (e.g., attitudes and perceptions towards HF), as well as providing insights into the improvement strategies used by the HF team in order to improve HFI. These included attempts to build relationships and establish a working rapport with other groups in the company, as well as other activities aimed at addressing the organisational culture within the company as a whole (e.g., attempts to raise the profile of HF within the company). We use the framework for social and organisational aspects of HFI to discuss our findings alongside other research on group behaviour and boundary management within large organisations. The conclusions of the paper point to the utility of the framework as a means of planning HFI improvement strategies which can help to overcome some of the social and organisational barriers to HFI.     

对降低意外灾害事故中伤员死亡率诸因素的思考

意外灾害事故是人们常说的天灾人祸,包括交通事故伤、空难、海难;火灾、爆炸、塌方、意外坠落、意外撞击、地震、洪水、泥石流,还可加上溺水、触电、中暑、中毒等以及他杀、自杀.通常交通事故占了相当大的比例.意外事故造成的伤害多为严重创伤、多发伤、复合伤,许多人同时受伤又叫群伤、成批伤.造成的伤亡和伤残的比例很高.北京地区近10年来,大的意外事故没有发生,但是中小意外事故连绵不断.1992年昌平旅游直升机坠毁事故、1995年汽车与火车相撞事故、1996年化工厂泄漏事故等等,以及京石高速公路、京津高速公路的大型车祸,动辄死伤十几人、甚至几十人,给人们的生命财产造成严重损失.     

事故对社会经济影响的调查分析

1意义及概念 1.1研究的背景及意义 生产过程中和生活活动中发生了事故,除了导致人的生命丧失和对健康影响外,必然会造成经济的损失.长期以来,由于我们对事故经济损失的研究和统计工作有限,使得无论是从企业单一的事故,还是从政府宏观的整体,对事故经济损失水平(指标)并不十分清楚.     

我国煤矿事故的特征及微观原因分析

按照事故总量、所有制结构和事故类型对我国煤矿安全事故分析,虽然近几年我国安全生产形势有所好转,事故起数和死亡人数都有不同程度的下降,但事故总量依然很大,与发达国家相比还有一定差距,安全生产形势依然严峻。从微观层面分析了主要原因,包括开采自然条件复杂、管理方法和技术装备水平有限、煤矿企业超能力生产以及从业人员素质不高等。     

社区中的安全事故统计与分析

社区是组成现代城市的基本社会群众组织.人群、住宅、工厂、学校、商店、医院、道路、树木……这些都是社区的组成部分,这里都潜藏着各种危机.     

现代化工业企业人因失误分析与事故预防

现代化工业企业中人因失误已成为影响系统安全与可靠性的最主要因素,通过分析现代化企业的基本特征,探讨了系统监控人员行为模型、人因失误分类及原因,并提出了人因事件的预防策略。     

试论我国目前伤亡事故发生的因素与恶性循环过程

1前言目前,我国的一些地区、部门、企事业单位的伤亡事故频频发生,给人民生命、财产造成巨大损失,并带来了严重的社会问题,直接影响到社会的稳定.本文就是通过对一些地区、部门、企事业单位的伤亡事故深入调查分析,运用系统工程的逻辑思维方法,从本质上予以分析探讨.     

Role of beliefs in accident and risk analysis and prevention

This paper mainly deals with an old psychological theme, i.e., the impact of comprehensive reference systems such as belief systems and culture on safety and accident prevention. It is hypothesized that an understanding of the beliefs people hold about risks and the causes of accidents, as well as their perceptions of risk targets and the need for safety, are important prerequisites for effectively managing risk and designing preventive measures. This viewpoint is posited to be highly crucial today, especially in this era of globalization where workers from different backgrounds are relocating, and increasingly complex technology is being exported. Illustrations are given for both developing and developed countries. Different factors are shown to cause bias in accident explanation and risk perception. Among these, people’s beliefs about their own ability to cope and also their culture are described as important factors. Both defensive explanations of accidents and illusory or biased risk perception are shown to influence safety assessments and to have important implications for defining the best preventive actions and for writing relevant preventive communications.     

Development of a new chemical process-industry accident database to assist in past accident analysis

Past accident analysis (PAA) is one of the most potent and oft-used exercises for gaining insights into the reasons why accidents occur in chemical process industry (CPI) and the damage they cause. PAA provides invaluable ‘wisdom of hindsight’ with which strategies to prevent accidents or cushion the impact of inevitable accidents can be developed.A number of databases maintain record of past accidents in CPI. The most comprehensive of the existing databases include Major Hazard Incident Data Service (MHIDAS), Major Accident Reporting System (MARS), and Failure and Accidents Technical Information Systems (FACTS). But each of these databases have some limitations. For example MHIDAS can be accessed only after paying a substantial fee. Moreover, as detailed in the paper, it is not infallible and has some inaccuracies. Other databases, besides having similar problems, are seldom confined to accidents in chemical process industries but also cover accidents from other domains such as nuclear power plants, construction industry, and natural disasters. This makes them difficult to use for PAA relating to CPI. Operational injuries not related to loss of containment, are also often included. Moreover, the detailing of events doesn’t follow a consistent pattern or classification; a good deal of relevant information is either missing or is misclassified.The present work is an attempt to develop a comprehensive open-source database to assist PAA. To this end, information on about 8000 accidents, available in different open-source clearing houses has been brought into a new database named by us PUPAD (Pondicherry University Process-industry Accident Database). Multiple and overlapping accident records have been carefully eliminated and a search engine has been developed for retrieval of the records on the basis of appropriate classification. PUPAD doesn’t aim to replace or substitute the well established databases such as MHIDAS and MARS but, rather, aims to compliment them.     

Validity and consistency assessment of accident analysis methods in the petroleum industry

Background. Accident analysis is the main aspect of accident investigation. It includes the method of connecting different causes in a procedural way. Therefore, it is important to use valid and reliable methods for the investigation of different causal factors of accidents, especially the noteworthy ones. Objective. This study aimed to prominently assess the accuracy (sensitivity index [SI]) and consistency of the six most commonly used accident analysis methods in the petroleum industry. Methods. In order to evaluate the methods of accident analysis, two real case studies (process safety and personal accident) from the petroleum industry were analyzed by 10 assessors. The accuracy and consistency of these methods were then evaluated. The assessors were trained in the workshop of accident analysis methods. Results. The systematic cause analysis technique and bowtie methods gained the greatest SI scores for both personal and process safety accidents, respectively. The best average results of the consistency in a single method (based on 10 independent assessors) were in the region of 70%. Conclusion. This study confirmed that the application of methods with pre-defined causes and a logic tree could enhance the sensitivity and consistency of accident analysis.     

道路交通事故发展趋势分析与预测

根据福建省2000 -2010年交通事故相关指标,采用统计图表分析法进行交通事故发展趋势分析与安全水平比较研究,结果表明交通事故各项绝对指标总体呈下降趋势,但从万车死亡率、受伤人数与死亡人数比及交通事故死亡人数占各类事故死亡人数比重等相对指标看,交通安全总体水平偏低,交通事故后果比较严重.对交通事故死亡人数与GDP、机动车保有量、公路通车里程、人口数四项影响因素进行了多元线性回归分析,分析得出四个影响因素总体对交通事故死亡人数的线性影响是显著的,采取向后筛选策略线性回归分析得出,死亡人数与GDP的线性关系是显著的,根据回归结果建立了交通事故的预测模型.     

模拟事故分析会在基层安全教育中的应用

铁路工作,责任重大.如何不断增强全体干部职工的责任感和忧患意识,一直是铁路部门长期探索的重要课题.2004年1月起,喀什工务段在八盘磨工区试点,通过模拟事故分析会的方式对职工进行警钟长鸣的安全教育.经过8个月的实践,八盘磨工区在工务段的正确指导下,逐渐摸索出一条开展安全教育的新套路,安全形势持续稳定,设备质量均衡发展,职工保安全的责任心明显增强了.     

煤矿瓦斯灾害事故频发的原因及其对策分析

1 煤矿安全生产形势与现状 我国是世界上灾害最严重的国家之一,近十年,每年平均灾害损失近1600亿元,相当于国民生产总值的3.8%,这一比例是发达国家的10倍以上.在众多的灾害中,伴随矿业生产的动力现象(冲击地压、煤与瓦斯突出)、瓦斯、粉尘、水灾和火灾等灾害事故,不仅造成人民生命财产的巨大损失和环境问题,而且还制约着矿业生产的发展,乃至整个国民经济和社会的可持续发展.中国的矿业事故是所有工伤事故中最为严重,造成的死亡人数仅次于公路交通,在各种人为显性事故灾害中居第二位,矿业灾害中尤以瓦斯灾害最为突出,是我国矿业发展中亟待解决的重大问题.     

功能共振事故模型在可控飞行撞地事故分析中的应用

介绍了功能共振理论,说明了事故发生机理,描述了功能单位,介绍了一般性能条件和功能性能波动状态,以及功能共振事故模型分析步骤。利用功能共振事故模型对可控飞行撞地事故进行了分析,识别描述了功能单位,建立了功能网络;根据一般性能条件评价了各个功能单位性能波动状态,在评价结果基础上分析了各个功能单位性能波动状态,确定了＂管制员发出下降指令＂和＂输入导航点信息＂两个随机状态功能单位;进一步分析了功能共振和失效功能连接,以及影响功能共振的功能因素,建立了功能共振失效网络,确定了＂管制员发出下降指令＂、＂输入导航点信息＂、＂保持下降航路＂、＂到达指定导航点＂四个功能共振单位;最后识别出了波动障碍,并制定了＂调整飞行管理系统导航点信息显示方式＂等多个性能监测措施管理可控飞行撞地功能性能波动。