Analysis of the circumstances of accidents and impact of transformations on the accidents in a beverage delivery company

The aim of the study was to analyze the narratives in accident files to document the circumstances of accidents in a beverage delivery company, in particular, in regard with the activities performed at the time of the accident and the deviations reported. A second aim was to understand the impact of the transformations introduced by the company on accident patterns. Narrative material from 546 files covering a 7-year period was analyzed. Special attention was given to collecting information on the activities conducted at the time of the accident, including location, foot support base, operation, and material involved. The analysis allowed specifying elements that have good potential for improving handling situations and decreasing accident risks. Three categories of deviation were analyzed: situations reported as particular or difficult, unforeseen events, and dysfunction reported in the activity itself. Results show that several external factors play an important role in the occurrence of accidents. Most of these factors are beyond risk analysis of handling situations. The impact of the transformations on the number, seriousness, and causes of accidents was dramatic. Analysis shows that current investigative risk tools are insufficient in helping management predict how decisions will affect safety. The discussion situates the results within the various theories of musculoskeletal mechanisms of injury.     

基于数据挖掘的化工生产事故致因主题抽取

为充分挖掘化工生产事故数据中的有效信息和潜在规律,提高对化工事故认知水平,针对某化工集团2010—2016年共1 578起事故数据,利用社会网络分析等方法揭示事故要素间的关联关系;运用潜在狄利克雷分配（LDA）模型进行事故聚类,并抽取到5个事故致因主题。研究结果表明:LDA主题模型等数据挖掘技术能有效挖掘大量事故数据中的潜在信息;5个事故致因主题中,4个涉及到人因或组织层面的缺陷;员工注意力不集中和现场风险管理不足这2个致因主题间具有较强相关性;员工注意力不集中、现场风险管理不足以及设备问题是导致事故发生的主要原因。     

超大城市昼夜交通事故严重程度致因对比分析——以深圳市为例

为研究夜间交通事故严重程度致因,基于深圳市3年3 244起交通事故数据,获取昼夜交通事故分布的时空特征;进一步选取交通事故集聚的南山区、福田区、罗湖区的1 798起交通事故,以交通事故严重程度为因变量,以事故原因、日期、事故形态等10个因素为候选自变量,构建广义有序Logit回归模型,对比分析昼夜不同严重程度交通事故的影响因素。结果表明:路口路段类型、疲劳驾驶、事故日期在夜间模型参数估计值分别为0.493,-0.363,-0.309,而在日间模型表现为不显著,道路路面材料在日间模型参数估计值为-0.232,而在夜间表现为不显著;事故原因、道路横断面渠化方式等因素在日间和夜间所引起交通事故的严重等级均存在较大差异。     

An application of data mining tools for the study of shipping safety in restricted waters

The effectiveness of the enforcement of the ISM-Code and the examination of its role in the distribution of causes of shipping accidents between human and non-human error was studied. All accidents involving Greek-flagged ships from 1995 to 2006, a time-scale which spans over the pre- and post-ISM period in navigational regions of restricted waters, were analyzed.The accident data was processed through a classification tree analysis which enabled the classification of various accident factors. The analysis revealed that although the human error maintained its position as the dominant factor in shipping accidents, there is also substantial evidence in support of the ISM-Code effective control over shipping accidents during the post-ISM period. The implementation of the ISM-Code led to an overall reduction of human-induced accidents in total. Furthermore, in terms of location, the ISM-Code improved the human-induced accident record within restricted waters.Conclusively, the ISM-Code constitutes an effective policy measure for shipping safety. The results of the classification tree analysis reported in the present work can be used by decision makers in companies and international organizations to build knowledge-based expert systems and augment their information in the field of safety policy and management.     

Learning lessons from incidents: A paradigm shift is overdue

Drawing on historical data we show that the international community of process engineers has not been good at learning lessons from their past accidents. We call for a paradigm change in the way we approach this and the creation of a single new, multi-national, multilingual accident database that is free at the point of use and that includes immediate and underlying causes as well as “lessons learned”. It must be user-friendly and provide links to key source documents. The purpose of this paper is to challenge those in authority, and with the power to do so, to make this happen. We give some preliminary views on what may be required. In countries that so choose this could include an element of compulsion to consult the database in specific circumstances and a sign-off procedure to verify that this has been done.     

Industrial accidents in spray dryer plants for dairy products in Europe

Despite the fact that the information about past accidents is an integral part of accident prevention, the information about industrial accidents is not commonly available in food and agricultural sectors. Spray dryer plants for dairy products are not an exception. The aim of this paper is the creation of the representative database for industrial spray drying accidents in order to identify their major causes. The paper is divided into 8 chapters. The first two chapters deal with the general information about technology of spray drying of dairy products. The third chapter provides the outputs from the authors' database containing records of 25 accidents in milk drying facilities in Europe. These accidents took place between 1999 and 2019 in six European countries. Based on the accident database, the most common causes of accidents were identified. Processes that can cause a fire, an explosion, or damage to environment are described in the fourth, fifth and sixth chapter. The seventh chapter deals with process, technical and organizational measures; these were discussed using literature research and the results of the accident database. The eighth chapter is the conclusion with a focus on further improvement of process safety through newly developed protective tools.     

Understanding factors associated with misclassification of fatigue-related accidents in police record

IntroductionFatigue is one of the riskiest causes of traffic accidents threatening road safety. Due to lack of proper criteria, the identification of fatigue-related accidents by police officers largely depends on inferential evidence and their own experience. As a result, many fatigue-related accidents are misclassified and the harmfulness of fatigue on road safety is misestimated.MethodIn this paper, a joint model framework is introduced to analyze factors contributing to misclassification of a fatigue-related accident in police reports. Association rule data mining technique is employed to identify the potential interactions of factors, and logistic regression models are applied to analyze factors that hinder police officers' identification of fatigue-related accidents. Using the fatigue-related crash records from Guangdong Province during 2005–2014, factors contributing to the false positive and false negative detection of the fatigue-related accident have been identified and compared.ResultsSome variables and interactions were identified to have significant impacts on fatigue-related accident detection.ConclusionsBased on the results, it can be inferred that the stereotype of certain groups of drivers, crash types, and roadway conditions affects police officers' judgment on fatigue-related accidents.Practical applicationsThis finding can provide useful information for training police officers and build better criteria for fatigue identification.     

Risky driving and the perception of motorcycle accident causes among chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong

Objective: The primary purposes of this study were to explore the relationship between risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles and perceived causes of motorcycle accidents, as well as their contribution to active involvement in traffic accidents among Chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong. Active involvement means the riders was likely at fault for the crash. Methods: A total of 774 motorcyclists were recruited, of whom 292 had been involved in active motorcycle accident in the previous 3?years. All were asked to fill in a questionnaire, which was developed to assess their risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle and perception of motorcycle accident causes. Results: The results of the study revealed 3 dimensions of accident causes, namely, driving-related, environment-related, and belief-related causes. These motorcycle accident causes were correlated with risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle. A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.036, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.020-1.052), perception of driving-related cause (adjusted OR: 0.941, 95% CI: 0.916-0.967), and belief-related cause (adjusted OR: 1.134, 95% CI: 1.088-1.182) were significant factors contributing to involvement in active traffic accidents by motorcycle riders after controlling for concurrent demographic variables. Conclusions: The study highlights that perceived causes of motorcycle accidents are multidimensional, including those areas related to driving, the environment, and beliefs. It substantiates previous studies that a higher degree of driving-related risk perception is related to a lower degree of risk-taking acts while driving. Further research is needed to understand why belief-related causes, sometimes called superstitions, lead riders to believe that it is beyond their ability to affect accident causation and prevention.     

From a survey on accidents in the downstream oil industry to the development of a detailed near-miss reporting system

A historical analysis with statistical investigation on accidental events in the oil industry from the beginning of the XX century till now, was performed in order to identify historical trend and go deeper into accident causes. The classification methodology was developed referring to three headings, namely plant/process, environment and organization and trying to go deeper into the analysis of the causes of the accidents reported and understand more of what is probably behind the accidents. The accident types and severity were studied, plotting the accumulated frequency–fatality curve for each item. In the subsequent applicative phase, we applied a similar classification approach to near-misses directly collected over nine years observation in a large downstream oil firm. The historical analysis was extended on each section of the refinery, paying a careful attention to all causes and consequences of the event. Data were structured for analyzing trends and identifying possible precursors of unwanted events. According to the step-by-step approach we try to evidence how immediate causes of a near-miss could be linked in some kind of causal chain to underlying causes that should be controlled by middle or higher management, or are part of the corporate safety culture.     

A survey on occupational accidents’ reporting and registration systems in the European Union

This paper presents the results of a survey on the procedures for reporting occupational accidents in the EU countries. It focuses particularly on the reporting and registration systems, as well as on the main characteristics of National Databases being used for the production of official statistics. The survey shows that many European countries have different methods and procedures for collecting and compiling data on occupational accidents, which inevitably pose problems when comparing accident statistics between the EU member states.The paper includes a brief review of the main goals and achievements of the European Project ESAW (European Statistics on Accidents at Work), which was launched in 1990 by the Eurostat (European Statistics), for the harmonisation of occupational accidents’ statistics among the member states. It is believed that the new variables being introduced by the harmonised methodology will quickly affect the way in which managers and insurance companies carry out their current procedures in several EU member states.The International Labour Organisation (ILO) recommendations and the future trends are also analysed. In conclusion, the study identifies opportunities for further development and research in the reporting and registration systems of occupational accidents.     

基于速度的交通事故分析

速度对交通事故的发生以及严重程度有着直接影响,是道路交通事故的重要诱因之一。为了准确地反映速度与事故之间的关系,减轻由于速度因素所造成的交通事故的损失,笔者对国内外速度与交通安全的情况进行分析;研究了平均速度与事故危险性、速度离散度与事故率以及速度与事故严重性的关系;提出了加强速度管理,控制交通流平均速度和减小相邻路段的速度差值的对策。基于速度的交通事故分析,建议采用85%位车速作为控制速度的上限值;提出限速措施,以达到减少交通事故及其损失的目的。     

基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿事故人因推理

煤矿事故的不可重现性决定了事故原因的调查具有很强的不确定性,如何通过事故发生后的相关信息提高事故深层次原因调查的准确性是非常重要的。将HFACS与贝叶斯网络相结合,以煤矿事故HFACS分析结果为样本,通过卡方检验和让步比分析建立人因的贝叶斯网络因果图,进一步利用最大似然估计算法确定了煤矿事故人因的贝叶斯网络参数。最后,以双柳煤业顶板事故的调查信息为证据推理导致煤矿事故发生的深层次原因,提高事故原因调查的准确性,从而验证模型的有效性。     

Process industry accidents in Sri Lanka: Analysis and basic lessons learnt

Accidents in the process industry could be prevented or reduced by having good safety management measures. Such preventive measures could be further improved through the experiences and lessons learnt from past accidents. Therefore, analysis results of past accidents are valuable sources of information for determining root causes and as case material to prevent and reduce the adverse consequences of accidents in the process industry.This paper looks at accidents in the process industry that have occurred in the past 10 years from 1997 to 2006 in Sri Lanka to gain an understanding of the nature and consequences of accidents. Lessons and main areas of concern to improve safety in the Sri Lanka process industry are discussed. The analysis is done for different event types based on specific operating process stage during which the accident occurred such as processing, loading and unloading, repair and maintenance and storage, the immediate effect types such as fire, explosion, chemical releases and emissions and the consequences of each accident. Fire incidents were observed in 38 accidents analyzed. The results show that the highest number of accidents has occurred during processing operations followed by accidents during maintenance and repair work. The cause analysis shows that many accidents have occurred due to technical and human failures.The accidents are then classified according to the severity of the consequences in order to compare the nature of accidents experienced in Sri Lanka with respect to accidents in other countries in the world.     

A semi-quantitative assessment of occupational risks using bow-tie representation

This work proposes a semi-quantitative risk assessment methodology, which was applied and tested in the Ship Building Industry. It covers a wide range of risks related to occupational accidents in a shipbuilding yard environment, more specifically at Arsenal do Alfeite, a large shipyard in Portugal. The initial qualitative analysis focuses on the bow-tie diagram technique but it also integrates concepts and classifications schemes defined by the Eurostat within the European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW) Project. The structure of the diagram enables the identification of the relevant accident’s causal pathways and their consequences at the same time as it identifies the existing or needed safety barriers. In what concerns the semi-quantitative assessment, the accident risk level and acceptance criteria were established through a scoring system, using national data on accident statistics for the sub-sector: Ship Building & Repairing (code NACE 35.1). The statistical data was supplied by GEP (the Office of Strategy & Planning of the Portuguese Ministry of Labour & Social Solidarity). The authors present and discuss a specific case study, in the shipyard’s technological area of surface treatment and protection, to demonstrate the method’s applicability and usefulness.     

Applying Hierarchical Loglinear Models to Nonfatal Underground Coal Mine Accidents for Safety Management

Underground mining is considered to be one of the most dangerous industries and mining remains the most hazardous occupation. Categorical analysis of accident records may present valuable information for preventing accidents. In this study, hierarchical loglinear analysis was applied to occupational injuries that occurred in an underground coal mine. The main factors affecting the accidents were defined as occupation, area, reason, accident time and part of body affected. By considering subfactors of the main factors, multiway contingency tables were prepared and, thus, the probabilities that might affect nonfatal injuries were investigated. At the end of the study, important accident risk factors and job groups with a high probability of being exposed to those risk factors were determined. This article presents important information on decreasing the number accidents in underground coal mines.     

Data mining of tree-based models to analyze freeway accident frequency

INTRODUCTION: Statistical models, such as Poisson or negative binomial regression models, have been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency for many years. However, these models have their own model assumptions and pre-defined underlying relationship between dependent and independent variables. If these assumptions are violated, the model could lead to erroneous estimation of accident likelihood. Classification and Regression Tree (CART), one of the most widely applied data mining techniques, has been commonly employed in business administration, industry, and engineering. CART does not require any pre-defined underlying relationship between target (dependent) variable and predictors (independent variables) and has been shown to be a powerful tool, particularly for dealing with prediction and classification problems. METHOD: This study collected the 2001-2002 accident data of National Freeway 1 in Taiwan. A CART model and a negative binomial regression model were developed to establish the empirical relationship between traffic accidents and highway geometric variables, traffic characteristics, and environmental factors. RESULTS: The CART findings indicated that the average daily traffic volume and precipitation variables were the key determinants for freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies.     

Fatal workplace accidents in outsourced operations in the manufacturing industry

Several studies have indicated that outsourcing increases the risk of accidents and presented some explanations for this phenomenon. For example, higher accident proneness of external employees has been presented, but the common causes of accidents have not been reviewed in depth. This paper provides information about typical accidents, the contributing factors, and preventive measures of fatal occupational accidents that occurred in outsourced manufacturing tasks. This paper also compares whether these factors differ from accidents that occurred when tasks were performed in-house in the manufacturing industry. The focus is on operations executed in the factory area for or by an organization operating in the manufacturing business. The accident analysis is based on information gathered from accident reports for fatal workplace accidents that occurred in Finland during 1999–2008. At outsourced operations in manufacturing, accidents occur most commonly when installations or work preparations are being performed. According to the reports, dangerous work practices and insufficient hazard identification most frequently contributed to accidents. In order to prevent typical accidents, e.g., occupational instructional and guidance, hazard identification, work practices, supervision, and task planning should be improved. Statistical differences between outsourced and in-house operations were also found, mainly within the contributing factors. Therefore, the safety of outsourced manufacturing operations should be considered in detail in order to prevent accidents and ensure occupational safety also when operated with other performers.     

基于文本挖掘和复杂网络的事故致因重要度评估方法——以房屋市政较大以上事故为例

为充分挖掘事故调查报告中的有效信息,明确安全管理工作的内容.首先,利用文本挖掘分析事故调查报告,采用最小词频阈值文档频改进信息增益评估函数对分词结果降噪,通过回溯特征项在报告中的具体表述,提取事故致因,再构建同义词词库.然后,引入复杂网络以改进TF-IDF,综合事故致因因素的关联特征评估其重要度.最后,以房屋市政较大及...