我国城市居民健康状况及影响因素研究

随着中国城市化、工业化快速推进,城市居民的健康日益受到环境、外部压力等因素的影响,加上生活方式和健康观念方面的原因,城市居民健康状况的改善缓慢.利用2006年中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)截面数据,描述了我国城市居民的健康及其分布状况,利用Ordered Probit模型分析了影响城市居民的健康状况的各类因素.结果发现:家庭状况、生活习惯、就医决策、医疗保险等因素均影响城市居民的健康水平;尤其是在收入、工作等经济因素之外,健康观念、就医决策和保险覆盖等社会和制度因素亦对城市居民个人健康产生影响.同时,通过逐步回归控制相关变量的方法,检验了Grossman模型的适用性,同时也检验了影响因素作用机制的稳定性.在总结研究结论与不足的基础上,提出了应从经济,社会和制度三个层面全面促进城市居民健康的综合改革框架.     

Renewable energy subsidies versus carbon capture and sequestration support

We propose an equilibrium model where final-goods production uses labor and energy, and energy production uses non-polluting Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and polluting fossil fuels. Our goal is to compare two alternative Green Tax Reforms (GTRs). In one of the GTRs, carbon tax revenues are used to support Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) activities. In the other GTR, tax revenues are used to subsidize RES. The comparison between the two GTRs is focused on three indicators: output per worker, energy intensity and the ratio of renewables over non-renewables. Results show that, in theory, the GTR with the RES subsidy could benefit both the economy and the environment if resource substitution was strong enough. The GTR with CCS support necessarily decreases output since abatement only partially alleviates the tax burden. The empirical simulation indicates that, for most tax values, both GTRs imply an economic slowdown but benefit the environment. The GTR with RES subsidies appears to be preferable than the alternative one, especially for lower tax levels.     

Recent government regulations in the United States seek to ensure the effectiveness of antibiotics by limiting their agricultural use

The development of bacteria resistant to antibiotics is viewed as a medical health threat. Because thousands of people die every year due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria, efforts are underway to reduce antibiotic usage which in turn will reduce the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. In the United States, the use of antibiotics in the production of food animals to enhance animal growth has been identified as contributing to resistance. In 2015, a veterinary feed directive was adopted by the U.S. federal government prohibiting nontherapeutic uses of antibiotics in food animals that should reduce usage. The continued usage of antibiotics by producers for preventing disease may mean the directive is insufficient to reduce nontherapeutic antibiotic administration. This may lead some consumers to seek meat products from animals raised without antibiotics. A governmentally-sponsored labeling program could encourage reduction in antibiotic usage.     

Social and behavioral research on risk: Uses in risk management decisionmaking

The overall objective of this paper is to describe the principle uses of social and behavioral research in risk management decisionmaking. Five such uses are identified and discussed, including uses in (1) identifying the nature and extent of public concern; (2) structuring public debate and resolving conflicts; (3) anticipating public responses to new technologies; (4) conducting and informing the public; and (5) designing and implementing risk management policies and systems.     

Toward Water Conservation Society: the Connotation and Assessment Indication System

Abstract

Water saving and developing water conservation society are the two key strategies both for wise water allocation and sustainable utilization. The paper analyses the connotation of water saving and water conservation society. Essentially, water saving means freeing up water from non-beneficial uses and providing it to some more productive uses. Basic principles for setting indicator are presented by providing efficient use of water, considering social issues and ecological protection. An integrated assessing water saving system aiming at more sustainable and efficient consumption is given considering unbalanced social and economic development in regions and basins. The hierarchy Indicator system provides qualified tools to the practice of water conservation and evaluates the value for water conservation society construction.     

Phenotypic variation of the rare species <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cephalaria uralensis</Emphasis> (Murr.) Schrad. ex Roem. et Schult. in the Republic of Bashkortostan,the Southern Urals

Variation in morphometric parameters of the poorly studied rare species Cephalaria uralensis (Murr.) Schrad. ex Roem. et Schult. has been studied at the northern boundary of its range, in the Southern Urals (Bashkortostan). The species in the region grows in four types of steppe communities of the class Festuco-Brometea. Variation in the majority of parameters is within the species reaction norm. The most variable parameters are the numbers of vegetative and generative shoots and the number of inflorescences per shoot. As shown by discriminant analysis, all 16 cenopopulations included in the study significantly differ from each other (Wilks’ λ = 0.21), with most of them being morphologically and structurally uniform. The state of local C. uralensis appears to be satisfactory, and this species is not at serious risk for extinction in the territory of Bashkortostan.     

Urbanization,land use,and water quality in Shanghai. 1947-1996

The paper undertakes a preliminary investigation into the relationship between water quality and urbanization as well as the changing patterns of land use within Shanghai. Longitudinal changes to water quality at various points along the course of the Huangpu River are analysed and compared to changes in the rates of urbanization and changes in land uses. The results reveal that rapid urbanization corresponds with rapid degradation of water quality. It also shows that urban land uses are positively correlated with the decline in water quality. A regression model shows that close to 94% of the variability in water quality classifications is explained by industrial land area. The paper concludes with the need for comprehensive land use planning as a way of protecting valuable water resources.     

Comparative assessment of pollution by the use of industrial agricultural fertilizers in four rapidly developing Asian countries

This article describes a study of the environmental impacts of the use of industrial agricultural chemicals in four Asian countries—China, India, the Philippines and Thailand. The objective was to contribute objectively to the discussion on the extent of the problem, past and current damages to the environment to and outline possible paths to sustainable and environmentally benign agriculture. The four countries are experiencing rapid economic growth under a tremendous population growth pressure that, with the exception of China, will continue without leveling of in a foreseeable future. This requires more food production that has been accomplished by the increased use of industrial chemical fertilizers. Although the four countries uses of industrial chemicals vary, the mix of nutrients appears to be imbalanced, resulting in large nitrogen losses into the environment, especially in China. A suggested solution of the problem begins with reducing (China) or maintaining (India, the Philippines, Thailand) average nutrient application levels needed by the crops and includes optimal hybrid agriculture by using organic fertilizers, and fertilizers in the irrigation water already overloaded with nitrogen. There is a need to balance fertilizer N and P applications with the crop needs.     

Human impacts on fire occurrence: a case study of hundred years of forest fires in a dry alpine valley in Switzerland

Forest fire regimes are sensitive to alterations of climate, fuel load, and ignition sources. We investigated the impact of human activities and climate on fire occurrence in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) by relating fire occurrence to population and road density, biomass removal by livestock grazing and wood harvest, temperature and precipitation in two distinct periods (1904–1955 and 1956–2006) using generalized additive modeling. This study provides evidence for the role played by humans and temperature in shaping fire occurrence. The existence of ignition sources promotes fire occurrence to a certain extent only; for example, high road density tends to be related to fewer fires. Changes in forest uses within the study region seem to be particularly important. Fire occurrence appears to have been negatively associated with livestock pasturing in the forest and wood harvesting, in particular during the period 1904–1955. This study illustrates consistently how fire occurrence has been influenced by land use and socioeconomic conditions. It also suggests that there is no straightforward linear relationship between human factors and fire occurrence.     

宝天曼自然保护区土壤有机碳异质性及其影响因素

自然界中,土壤碳库对于维持生态系统碳平衡起决定性作用,而土壤有机碳又是碳库中不可或缺的一员,研究土壤有机碳对于全球生态系统碳平衡具有十分重大的意义。因此,基于宝天曼土壤有机碳实测数据并运用半方差函数、克里格插值分析山地土壤有机碳垂直性特征及空间分异程度,利用地理探测器对影响土壤有机碳分布的环境因子进行相关分析,结果表明:(1)宝天曼土壤有机碳介于0.31～7.7 g/kg,属于较低水平,最高值(7.70 g/kg)出现在北坡987 m处;(2)不同土层深度的半方差函数模型不同,0～20和40～60 cm对高斯模型拟合效果更明显、20～40 cm对球状模型拟合效果较好,而线性模型对于60～80和80～100 cm土层深度拟合效果较佳,克里格插值表明0～20和20～40 cm空间分异特征相似,呈西南向东北增加的趋势,而40～60 cm土壤有机碳空间分异呈现东北高、西南低;(3)宝天曼不同土层深度受单个环境因子影响程度不同,解释力介于0.127～0.407,其中NDVI对0～20 cm土壤有机碳解释力最显著(0.407)、高程对40～60 cm土壤有机碳解释力最高(0.373),交互探测结果表明NDVI与坡度解释力最高、高程与其他因子交互探测后解释力显著增大,表明宝天曼土壤有机碳受多种环境因子共同影响,而非单一因素起决定性作用。     

Considerable exposure to the endocrine disrupting chemicals phthalates and bisphenol-A in intensive care unit (ICU) patients

Critical care medicine has largely benefited from plastic-containing medical devices. However, bisphenol-A (BPA) and phthalates present in the plastics can leach from such devices. We hypothesized that intensive care unit (ICU) patients are exposed to BPA and phthalates through (plastic) medical devices. Serum (n = 118) and urine (n = 102) samples of adult ICU patients (n = 35) were analyzed for total BPA and phthalate metabolites (PMs). Our results showed that adult ICU patients are continuously exposed to phthalates, such as di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP), as well as to BPA, albeit to a lesser extent. This exposure resulted in detectable high serum and urinary levels in almost every patient and at every studied time point. Moreover, these levels were significantly higher than in controls or compared to referenced literature. The chronology of exposure was demonstrated: pre-operative urinary and serum levels of the DEHP metabolites were often below the detection limit. Plastic-containing medical devices were the main source of DEHP exposure: post-operative patients on hemofiltration, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or both showed serum levels 100-or 1000-fold higher than the levels in the general population reported in the literature. The serum and some of the urinary levels of the DEHP metabolites are the highest ever reported in humans; some at biologically highly relevant concentrations of ≥ 10–50 μM. Despite the continuously tightening regulations, BPA and DEHP appear to be still present in (some) medical devices. Because patient safety is a concern in the ICU, further research into the (possibly toxic and clinical) effects of these chemicals released from medical devices is imperiously necessary.     

Social contrasts and land use conflicts in the context of sustainable development and management needs: a case study from an estuarine area at northeastern Brazil

This paper discusses the misuses of estuaries in Northeast of Brazil and the social contrasts there found. The several kinds of impacts promoted by capitalist enterprises in one side and by traditional population, who uses estuary areas at another side, are in complete disagreement with the ethic of sustainable development. Our intention is to demonstrate how these aspects occur in the River Paraíba do Norte estuary, in the State of Paraíba. Observing the conditions of infrastructure besides the multiple ways to handle along with the extension of the estuary, we could recognize 59 focus of conflict between the incorrect use and sustainable mode. Most of the uses concern to traditional artisan fishing, slums and recreational marinas, reflecting the great social contrast between rich and poor people settled in area studied. Ecological and social implications of these conflicting uses are discussed and measures to improve the situation are suggested.     

Chronological Dynamics of the Distribution of Wing Venation Anomalies in Intrapopulation Groups ofCalopteryx splendens Harr. Damselflies

Long-term dynamics of the numbers of complete (normal) veins, venation anomalies, and linear wing parameters were analyzed in male Calopteryx splendens Harr. damselflies from neighboring population groups. Correlation analysis showed that some anomalies may appear additionally to complete veins, whereas other anomalies are formed instead of them. The damselflies from the generations of even years proved to have significantly greater numbers of anomalies. A probable cause of this phenomenon was a sharp increase in the background radiation level in the summer of 1986, after the Chernobyl accident, which could lead to serious hereditary disturbances manifested in a series of generations. The results of the study show that the formation of wing venation anomalies in damselflies is a stochastic process, which is enhanced under the effect of both environmental and genetic stress. These anomalies may be regarded as markers characterizing the degree of stability of ontogenetic processes in the population, which essentially reflect specific genotypic traits of individual organisms. Analysis of wing venation anomalies appears to be a more precise instrument for assessing developmental stability than estimation of the levels of fluctuating asymmetry and general phenotypic variance.     

Recent advances in aerial gamma-ray surveying

Aerial gamma-ray surveying uses NaI(Tl) detectors mounted in small aircraft to measure gamma radiation, emitted from the earth's surface. The data are collected as gamma-ray spectra, typically with 1 s counting times, from which are derived K, U and Th concentrations in the ground. Applications of aerial surveying include geological mapping for mineral exploration, soil mapping for agriculture, pollution studies and location of lost sources. Recent advances in applying statistical methods to the spectral data have resulted in large reductions in the noise levels in the surveys. Some of the methods available to do this include noise adjusted singular value decomposition (NASVD) [Proceedings of Exploration 97: Fourth Decennial International Conference on Mineral Exploration (1997) 753] and maximum noise fraction (MNF) and enhanced MNF (eMNF) [Explor. Geophys. 31 (2000) 73]. These methods, in general, apply normalization for variance to the spectra, use a principal component method to obtain the "significant" components of the data and reconstruct cleaned spectra, which are then processed in a standard manner to get radionuclide concentrations. However, they differ in the detail of the application and thus give slightly different results. In this paper, the application of noise reduction methods to various synthetic surveys is used to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the methods. In tests where there are high correlations between U and Th, the eMNF method performs best although the results are improved by prior clustering of the data by the Th/U ratio. If the data show no correlations, then the effectiveness of all the noise removal methods is reduced. If a data set is small (<1500 spectra), then MNF appears to be the better method. Consideration of the various tests suggests an optimum process whereby spectra are sorted into groups by the Th/U ratio of areas identified in a standard processing and then cleaned by eMNF or MNF, depending on the number of spectra in each group.     

Determinants on Rural-Urban Labor Migration in China: Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Rural Cooperate Medical Insurance based on Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Data

Abstract

This paper studies factors influencing rural-urban labor migration in China, particularly the implementation of rural cooperative medical insurance (RCMI) in the year 2003. With the support of data analysis from the year 2000, 2004 and 2006, clear linear correlations are found between gender, income, health condition and rural-urban labor flow, whereas the impact of education and employment status are more complicated. More importantly, results from regression show that the establishment of RCMI in countryside of China not only inhibits rural residents from seeking employment outside the village, but also pulls back rural people who have already worked in cities. When regional dimension is concerned, the pure composite effect of RCMI on rural labor flow is less significant in coastal areas with better economic performance and medical service.     

Community forestry management and livelihood development in northwest China: integration of governance, project design, and community participation

In projects of community development and natural resource management, local residents collaborate with government and NGOs on decisions about forest management and participate in programs designed to improve livelihoods while sustaining natural resources. This paper uses case studies and survey data in Gansu province of northwest China to explore social, ecological, and economic outcomes of community-based co-management (CBCM). Findings show that CBCM appears to have significantly increased livelihoods for local community residents overall. Forest condition and attitudes about forest conservation were also improved. However, economic benefits were not enjoyed uniformly within the communities because, although CBCM projects are nominally available to all, certain subgroups within communities are less likely to participate. Greater education, being married, and access to information are all strongly correlated with participation and thus the economic benefits of CBCM projects. Women, although they frequently participate in household decisions, are infrequent participants in CBCM projects, perhaps because project design does not meet their needs. Future improvements to CBCM project design should include increased access to information, education, and equitable treatment of diverse stakeholders in the decision-making process. Such improvements would likely lead to improvements in livelihoods as well as more sustainable forest management and conservation.     

基于五种模型比较的湖南省生态旅游需求预测研究

从供求关系视角对湖南省生态旅游需求预测有利于生态旅游资源的优化配置与生态旅游产业的可持续发展。为了进一步了解湖南省生态旅游市场需求，以2008~2017年生态旅游相关数据为样本数据，运用GM（1，1）预测模型、线性回归预测模型、非参数模型、BP神经网络预测模型、时间序列预测模型（2）五种预测模型对湖南省生态旅游需求进行预测，得到线性回归模型的模拟精度最高。因此，采用线性回归模型对湖南省生态旅游总收入和生态接待旅游总人数进行预测。结果显示：2021~2025年期间，湖南省生态旅游总收入和接待生态旅游总人数呈中低速曲线递增趋势，其中生态旅游总收入名列前5强的市州是长沙、张家界、岳阳、湘潭和益阳市；生态旅游接待人数名列前5强的市州是长沙、常德、衡阳、郴州、益阳市。在各市州之间，存在生态旅游总收入与生态旅游人数不对等现象，尤以常德和张家界两市最为典型。     

Eco-balance analysis of land use combinations to minimize environmental impacts and maximize farm income in northern Japan

Relationships among global warming potential (GWP), farmland surplus nitrogen (FSN) and income for major land uses in the Ikushunbetsu watershed were compared using the eco-balance method. An empirical model was created for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide for both uplands and paddy rice using monitoring data from 22 fields. The greenhouse gas emissions were converted into GWP, whereas yield and FSN were obtained from interviews with farmers and a literature survey. Land use distribution was obtained by ground surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2007. The analysis showed that paddy rice and soybeans were characterized by a high GWP, low FSN and high income, whereas onions and vegetables had a high FSN but low GWP and moderate income. Wheat showed a negative GWP in some years, and abandoned areas always exhibited negative values. The total GWPs for the region were 14,184, 11,085 and 8,337 Mg CO₂ year⁻¹ for 2002, 2005 and 2007, respectively. The contribution of paddy rice to GWP was highest, ranging from 40 to 75%. To find optimal land use combinations that provide higher incomes and lower GWPs and FSNs than at present, all possible land use combinations were analyzed by changing the land use proportion from 0 to 100% at an interval of 10%. The number of land use combinations meeting the requirements in the three investigated years was 205. Abandoned area, which had the smallest environmental load, was included in every land use combination, indicating that land uses with low environmental impacts should be maintained at a certain proportion to mitigate the environmental load accompanying land uses with high production.     

Variations of airborne and waterborne Rn-222 in houses in Maine

Concentrations of airborne radon ranging from 0.05 to 135 pCi/L were found in houses in Maine. Tracketch cups were placed in five positions for 100 houses to determine integrated average radon concentrations over the period October 1980–May 1981. To investigate the association between elevated radon concentrations in well water and the indoor airborne radon concentrations, the radon in the water supplies of these houses was measured by liquid scintillation. Monitors of airborne radon, recording in intervals of 10 min for periods of 5–7 days, were used for dynamic studies in 18 houses, determining the component of airborne radon associated with major water uses, such as showers, laundry, and dishwashing, which liberate radon in bursts. House residents kept logs noting the time of major water uses. For some of the houses, ventilation rates ranging from 0.3 to 2 air changes per hour were determined by analysis of the dynamic data. The component of airborne radon associated with water sources was found to vary inversely with ventilation rate and directly with waterborne radon concentration, with 0.8 ± 0.2 pCi Rn/L air per nCi Rn/L water at a ventilation rate of 1.0 air change per hour. The data are pertinent to a study which has revealed significant correlations between county averages, from the National Cancer Institute, or age-adjusted cancer mortality rates in Maine and average values of radon concentrations in water for the counties.