长江口溢油数值模拟及对水源地影响

首先建立了一套基于非结构网格的长江口-杭州湾二维垂向平均潮流数学模型,又基于最新的实测资料重点对南支水域流速、流向和水位进行验证,充分证实了模型的可靠性。在潮流模型可靠的基础上为MIKE21 SA(溢油模块)提供水动力基础数据,建立了一套基于欧拉 拉格朗日体系的“油粒子”追踪技术,综合考虑油膜扩展、输移和风化过程的长江口溢油行为与归宿预测模型。并对长江口夏季和冬季大潮溢油事故发生后取水口油膜厚度的变化及油膜运动路径进行了模拟预测。研究表明：油膜在长江口受到往复流形式的涨落潮交替作用,油膜沿深槽向下游震荡漂移;〖JP2〗油膜在纵向上逐渐被拉伸,形成窄长的油带,覆盖面积逐渐增大;油膜的运动轨迹除了受到涨落潮流的主控外还易受风况和长江口水下地形等影响;夏季溢油对3个水库均有不同程度的影响,冬季溢油只威胁到陈行水库的取水;夏季油膜蒸发量大于冬季     

崇西湿地冬季潮滩鱼类种类组成及多样性分析

根据2006年冬季在崇西湿地进行的光滩和草滩插网渔获调查,首次对冬季长江口潮滩鱼类种类组成、多样性及相关环境因子作了分析。结果表明：冬季崇西湿地潮滩鱼类主要由淡水小型鱼类组成,共23种,隶属7科,20属。光滩和草滩插网的最大优势种皆为油,两种网具的渔获种类组成具一定的相似性。在一个潮周期内,3种多样性指数D、H′ 和J值波动范围较大,小汛潮时多样性指数比其它潮汛低。白天和晚上潮水的鱼类种类数无显著变化（P>0.5）,但在个体数和生物量上白天较晚上潮水高（P<0.5）。水温、潮汐大小对潮滩鱼类丰度影响较大,而与盐度相关较小。此外,天气状况也是影响潮滩鱼类的一个重要因子。总之,潮滩鱼类的种类组成和多样性受到各种环境因子的综合影响。     

Minimizing the ecological impacts of oil spills

Oil spill response, whether planned by government agencies, oil spill cooperatives or individual companies, can be planned and carried out with the goal of minimizing ecological impacts, not merely removing visible oil. Two oil spill cooperatives on the west coast are implementing such planning. First, a coastal survey was conducted in the cooperative's area of responsibility. Physical processes and habitat types were examined. Oil spill cleanup guidelines were written for each habitat type. Biologically sensitive areas, those sites most vulnerable to oil spill impacts, were identified. Strategies were developed to protect most sensitive areas, i.e., prevent spilled oil from reaching them. Protection is the preferred option because it prevents both the impact of the oil and subsequent cleanup activities. Protected areas can often serve as repopulation centers for surrounding sites that may have been impacted. If minimizing ecological impact is to be a prime focus of oil spill response, ecologists should be involved in both the planning before and the field efforts during such spill events.     

OPTIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY OF THE CRUDE PALM OIL INDUSTRY IN THAILAND THROUGH ENHANCEMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS

The crude palm oil industry plays an important role in the economic development of Thailand and in enhancing the economic welfare of the population. Despite obvious benefits of this industrial development, it also significantly contributes to environmental degradation, both at the input and the output sides of its activities. On the input side, crude palm oil mills use large quantities of water and energy in the production process. On the output side, manufacturing processes generate large quantities of wastewater, solid waste/by-products and air pollution. Current industrial wastes and recoverable materials are empty fruit bunches, fibers, shells and ash. It is estimated that in 2003, a total of 2.1 million ton of solid wastes/by-products and 2.5 million m³ of wastewater were generated. The concept of the industrial ecosystem points at the potential of industrial waste recycling resembling food chains, food webs and nutrient cycles of nature. Following the notion of industrial ecology crude palm oil mills can develop a number of waste recycling and reuse systems. This paper analyzes the nature of these industrial ecosystems, divided in in-plant ecosystems (clean technology options) and external waste exchange between crude palm oil industries and other economic activities in Thailand.     

Fate of oil from two major oil spills: Role of microbial degradation in removing oil from the Amoco Cadiz and IXTOC I spills

The fate of oil was examined in intertidal sediments impacted by the Amoco Cadiz spill in Brittany, France, and in surface waters contaminated by the IXTOC I well blowout in the Bay of Campeche, Mexico. The role of microbial degradation in removing the contaminating hydrocarbons was assessed by laboratory determinations of numbers of hydrocarbon utilizing microorganisms, measurement of microbial hydrocarbon biodegradation potentials, by chemical analyses of samples incubated under controlled conditions and by examination of the evolution of the hydrocarbon mixture in field samples collected after the spill. Analyses included the use of ¹⁴C radiolabelled hydrocarbon tracers, glass capillary-gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. Numbers of hydrocarbon utilizing microorganisms were found to be elevated by several orders of magnitude in oil contaminated samples. Numbers of hydrocarbon utilizing microorganisms appear to provide a useful index of environmental hydrocarbon contamination. However, environmental constraints on microbial processes appear to be most important in determining actual rates of biodegradation rather than numbers of available hydrocarbon utilizing microorganisms. Very high rates of degradation were found in intertidal sediments impacted by the Amoco Cadiz spill. In contrast, rates of degradation in the Gulf of Mexico were found to be much lower, partly due to nutrient limitations and partly due to the formation of large masses of oil-water emulsion or mousse.     

The impact of the change in vegetation structure on the ecological functions of salt marshes: the example of the Yangtze estuary

Salt marshes worldwide are faced with threats from rising sea levels and coastal development. We measured changes in salt marsh vegetation structure using remote sensing and its consequences for carbon sequestration, wave attenuation, and sediment trapping ability using remotely sensed imaging, field measurement data, and the published literature data pertaining to the Yangtze Estuary, a rapidly urbanizing area in Eastern China. From 1980 to 2010, the total area of vegetated salt marsh decreased by 17 %, but the vegetation structure changed more dramatically, with the ratio of Phragmites/Spartina/Scirpus changing from 24:0:76, to 77:0:23, 44:13:43, and 33:39:28 in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively. Carbon sequestration increased slightly from 1980 to 2010, with the dramatic shifts in plant species composition. The total length of seawall inadequately protected by salt marsh vegetation increased from 44 km in 1980 to 300 km in 2010. Sediment accretion increased (from 8 to 14 million m³/year) due to the spread of Spartina, which to some extent compensated the loss of total vegetated area in the salt marsh. Changes in the delivery of functions were not linearly related to the change in the area of vegetated salt marsh, but more from the combined effect of changing vegetation structure, sediment input, and land reclamation. Under threat of sea-level rise, protection and maintenance of vegetation structure outside the seawall are of great importance for the safe economic development inside the seawall.     

Application of biopreparation "Rhoder" for remediation of oil polluted polar marshy wetlands in Komi Republic

This paper describes the testing and corresponding results of the preparation "Rhoder" in comparison with several other bioremediation variants during the field trials in Komi Republic throughout 2002-2003. All bioremediation trials were performed on one vast polar marshy wetland polluted by accidental crude oil spill and uncovered by grass. After application of the "Rhoder" at the site, with an area of approximately 2000 m(2), during the cold and rainy summer of 2002 (1.5 months), the level of oil contamination decreased by 20-51%, depending on initial oil pollution (458-738 g/kg dry weight of soil). In the middle of September 2002, the treated site was covered by 70-85% with green grass. Though, during 2003, the "Rhoder" treatment was not practiced, at the end of August 2003, the site was already covered by 85-95% with green grass and the level of oil contamination further decreased by 54-79% from the initial level of oil pollution at the beginning of 2002. These results were much better compared to those from other bioremediation variants applied at this spill.     

Effects of a spill of bunker oil on the marine biological communities in Hong Kong

The effects of a recent bunker oil spill on the marine environment were assessed through investigation of the rocky shore fauna, phytoplankton population and macrobenthic communities over a study period of 150 days. In addition, toxicity experiments were carried out in the laboratory to ascertain the toxic effects of the oil-plus-dispersant on selected test organisms. The impacts of the spill on the marine fauna were minimal with no visible reduction in species and individual numbers. Possible reasons were the small amount of oil spilled, the rapid containment and dispersion in the clean-up operations, and the less toxic effects of the heavy bunker oil. On Hong Kong shores, the limpets can be identified as indicator species to oil pollution. A quick survey of the limpet fauna on the rocky shores immediately after a spill provides an initial assessment of the impacts on the shoreline. However, faunal recovery over a long-term period may be difficult to assess in view of the lack of baseline data on most of the marine biological communities in Hong Kong waters.     

The Amoco Cadiz oil spill. Distribution and evolution of hydrocarbon concentrations in seawater and marine sediments

The shipwreck of the Amoco Cadiz supertanker on the rocks of the Brittany Coast of France (March, 1978) was one of the most disastrous oil spills ever recorded. The crude oils discharged in the marine environment were light petroleums. The distribution and the evolution of the oil pollution in the marine environment was examined. Chemical studies were limited to an overall estimate of the oil content to assess the importance and the extent of the pollution at the surface, in the water column, and in the sediment. UV fluorescence spectroscopy was used to detect oil in the seawater samples and IR spectrophotometry was used to analyze the sediment samples. Hydrocarbon concentrations in seawater ranged from 0.5 μ/1 to more than 100 μg/1. The oil spill has affected a very large section of the western English Channel. The diffusion of the hydrocarbons into the water column was observed. The evolution of the seawater pollution was followed, and the half-life of hydrocarbons in subsurface water was found to be between 11 and 28 days in different areas. One month after the disaster, the marine sediments were contaminated in the areas reached by the drifting slicks. The highest accumulation of petroleum in the sediments was located in the sheltered coastal environments. The natural decontamination process was found to be related to the nature of the sediment and the energy level of the geographic zone.     

Bioremediation of coastal areas 5 years after the Nakhodka oil spill in the Sea of Japan: isolation and characterization of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria

Five years after the 1997 Nakhodka oil spill in the Sea of Japan, seven bacterial strains capable of utilizing the heavy oil spilled from the Nakhodka Russian oil tanker were isolated from three coastal areas (namely Katano Seashore of Fukui Prefecture, Osawa and Atake seashores of Ishikawa Prefecture) and the Nakhodka Russian oil tanker after a 5-year bioremediation process. All bacterial strains isolated could utilize long-chain-length alkanes efficiently, but not aromatic, and all of them were able to grow well on heavy oil. Using 16S rDNA sequencing, most of the strains were affiliated to Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Comparing between the year 1997 (at the beginning of bioremediation process) and the year 2001 (after 5 years of bioremediation), there was no significant change in morphology and size of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria during the 5-year bioremediation. Scanning and transmission electron microscopic observations revealed that a large number of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria still existed in the sites consisting of a variety of morphological forms of bacteria, such as coccus (Streptococcus and Staphylococcus) and bacillus (Streptobacillus). On the application of bioremediation processes on the laboratory-scale, laboratory microcosm experiments (containing seawater, beach sand, and heavy oil) under aerobic condition by two different treatments (i.e., placed the inside building and the outside building) were established for bioremediation of heavy oil to investigate the significance of the role of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria on them. There was no significant bacterial activity differentiation in the two treatments, and removal of heavy oil by hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria in the outside building was slightly greater than that in the inside building. The values of pH, Eh, EC, and dissolved oxygen (DO) in two treatments indicated that the bioremediation process took place under aerobic conditions (DO: 1-6 mg/l; Eh: 12-300 mV) and neutral-alkaline conditions (pH 6.4-8) with NaCl concentrations of 3-15% (ECs of 45-200 mS/cm).     

Twelve-year trends in ambient concentrations of volatile organic compounds in a community of the Alberta Oil Sands Region,Canada

Environmental exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in ambient air is one of a number of concerns that the First Nation Community of Fort McKay, Alberta has related to development of Canada's oil sands. An in-depth investigation of trends in ambient air VOC levels in Fort McKay was undertaken to better understand the role and possible significance of emissions from Alberta's oil sands development. A non-parametric trend detection method was used to investigate trends in emissions and ambient VOC concentrations over a 12-year (2001 − 2012) period. Relationships between ambient VOC concentrations and production indicators of oil sands operations around Fort McKay were also examined. A weak upward trend (significant at 90% confidence level) was found for ambient concentrations of total VOCs based on sixteen detected species with an annual increase of 0.64 μg/m³ (7.2%) per year (7.7 μg/m³ increase per decade). Indicators of production (i.e., annual bitumen production and mined oil sands quantities) were correlated with ambient total VOC concentrations. Only one of 29 VOC species evaluated (1-butene) showed a statistically significant upward trend (p = 0.05). Observed geometric (arithmetic) mean and maximum ambient concentrations of selected VOCs of public health concern for most recent three years of the study period (2010 − 2012) were below chronic and acute health risk screening criteria of the U.S. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Thirty-two VOCs are recommended for tracking in future air quality investigations in the community to better understand whether changes are occurring over time in relation to oil sands development activities and to inform policy makers about whether or not these changes warrant additional attention.     

Soil radium, soil gas radon and indoor radon empirical relationships to assist in post-closure impact assessment related to near-surface radioactive waste disposal

Least squares (LS), Theil’s (TS) and weighted total least squares (WTLS) regression analysis methods are used to develop empirical relationships between radium in the ground, radon in soil and radon in dwellings to assist in the post-closure assessment of indoor radon related to near-surface radioactive waste disposal at the Low Level Waste Repository in England. The data sets used are (i) estimated ²²⁶Ra in the <2 mm fraction of topsoils (eRa226) derived from equivalent uranium (eU) from airborne gamma spectrometry data, (ii) eRa226 derived from measurements of uranium in soil geochemical samples, (iii) soil gas radon and (iv) indoor radon data. For models comparing indoor radon and (i) eRa226 derived from airborne eU data and (ii) soil gas radon data, some of the geological groupings have significant slopes. For these groupings there is reasonable agreement in slope and intercept between the three regression analysis methods (LS, TS and WTLS). Relationships between radon in dwellings and radium in the ground or radon in soil differ depending on the characteristics of the underlying geological units, with more permeable units having steeper slopes and higher indoor radon concentrations for a given radium or soil gas radon concentration in the ground. The regression models comparing indoor radon with soil gas radon have intercepts close to 5 Bq m⁻³ whilst the intercepts for those comparing indoor radon with eRa226 from airborne eU vary from about 20 Bq m⁻³ for a moderately permeable geological unit to about 40 Bq m⁻³ for highly permeable limestone, implying unrealistically high contributions to indoor radon from sources other than the ground. An intercept value of 5 Bq m⁻³ is assumed as an appropriate mean value for the UK for sources of indoor radon other than radon from the ground, based on examination of UK data. Comparison with published data used to derive an average indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra ratio shows that whereas the published data are generally clustered with no obvious correlation, the data from this study have substantially different relationships depending largely on the permeability of the underlying geology. Models for the relatively impermeable geological units plot parallel to the average indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra model but with lower indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra ratios, whilst the models for the permeable geological units plot parallel to the average indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra model but with higher than average indoor radon: soil ²²⁶Ra ratios.     

Carbon fluxes from coarse woody debris in southern taiga forests of the Valdai Upland

Studies in three typical forest biotopes of the Valdai Upland were performed to evaluate the stocks and surface area of coarse woody debris from spruce and birch (in linear transects), its colonization by xylotrophic fungi (during reconnaissance surveys), and CO₂ emission (by a chamber method). The stock and surface area were minimum in a paludal birch forest (46.4 m³/ha and 960 m²/ha) and maximum in a decay area of spruce forest (256.1 m³/ha and 3761 m²/ha, respectively). The assemblages of wood-decay fungi had a composition typically found in southern taiga forests. The total CO₂ flux varied from 145 kg C-CO₂/ha per year in the paludal birch forest to 462 kg C-CO₂/ha per year in small herb–green moss spruce forest. It is concluded that air temperature is an informative predictor of seasonal C-CO₂ flux rate from coarse woody debris.     

Transfer parameter values in temperate forest ecosystems: a review

Compared to agricultural lands, forests are complex ecosystems as they can involve diverse plant species associations, several vegetative strata (overstorey, shrubs, herbaceous and other annual plant layer) and multi-layered soil profiles (forest floor, hemi-organic and mineral layers). A high degree of variability is thus generally observed in radionuclide transfers and redistribution patterns in contaminated forests. In the long term, the soil compartment represents the major reservoir of radionuclides which can give rise to long-term plant and hence food contamination. For practical reasons, the contamination of various specific forest products has commonly been quantified using the aggregated transfer factor (T_ag in m² kg⁻¹) which integrates various environmental parameters including soil and plant type, root distribution as well as nature and vertical distribution of the deposits. Long lasting availability of some radionuclides was shown to be the source of much higher transfer in forest ecosystems than in agricultural lands. This study aimed at reviewing the most relevant quantitative information on radionuclide transfers to forest biota including trees, understorey vegetation, mushrooms, berries and game animals. For both radiocaesium and radiostrontium in trees, the order of magnitude of mean T_ag values was 10⁻³ m² kg⁻¹ (dry weight). Tree foliage was usually 2–12 times more contaminated than trunk wood. Maximum contamination of tree components with radiocaesium was associated with (semi-)hydromorphic areas with thick humus layers. The transfer of radionuclides to mushrooms and berries is high, in comparison with foodstuffs grown in agricultural systems. Concerning caesium uptake by mushrooms, the transfer is characterized by a very large variability of T_ag, from 10⁻³ to 10¹ m² kg⁻¹ (dry weight). For berries, typical values are around 0.01–0.1 m² kg⁻¹ (dry weight). Transfer of radioactive caesium to game animals and reindeer and the rate of activity reduction, quantified as an ecological half-life, reflect the soil and pasture conditions at individual locations. Forests in temperate and boreal regions differ with respect to soil type and vegetation, and a faster decline of muscle activity concentrations in deer occurs in the temperate zone. However, in wild boar the caesium activity concentration shows no decline because of its special feeding habits. In the late phase, i.e. at least a few months since the external radionuclide contamination on feed plants has been removed, a T_ag value of 0.01 m² kg⁻¹ (fresh weight) is common for ¹³⁷Cs in the muscles of adult moose and terrestrial birds living in boreal forests, and 0.03 m² kg⁻¹ (fresh weight) for arctic hare. Radiocaesium concentrations in reindeer muscle in winter may exceed the summer content by a factor of more than two, the mean T_ag values for winter ranging from 0.02 to 0.8 m² kg⁻¹ (fresh weight), and in summer from 0.04 to 0.4 m² kg⁻¹. The highest values are found in the year of initial contamination, followed by a gradual reduction. In waterfowl a relatively fast decline in uptake of ¹³⁷Cs has been found, with T_ag values changing from 0.01 to 0.002 m² kg⁻¹ (fresh weight) in the three years after the contaminating event, the rate being determined by the dynamics of ¹³⁷Cs in aquatic ecosystems.     

Odor-annoyance estimates from roadtraffic combustion exhausts: Calibration with master scaling using pyridine as a reference

The present field study addressed the need for a procedure that provides a defined unit of measurement of perceived annoyance from environmental odors, calibrating the estimates for individual scaling behavior and context effects. In including 25 subjects, the purpose was to demonstrate the applicability of the master-scale procedure with magnitude estimation to perform such a calibration of odor-annoyance estimates for target stimuli such as road-traffic combustion exhausts (13 000 vehicles/d; averaging 47 μg/m³ over the day/night with peaks exceeding 100 μg/m³ of nitrogen dioxide; NO₂). For comparison, calibrated estimates were also obtained for a backyard expected to be considerably less polluted (comparable with 18 μg/m³ of NO₂) and for blank stimuli presented indoors. The data transformation for the calibration procedure with which annoyance is expressed in either master-scale units or pyridine equivalents requires estimates of a reference stimulus for which seven concentrations of pyridine were used. The results provide an illustration of master scaling of odor annoyance, and imply that use of a modulus (standard stimulus with a predefined annoyance magnitude), in contrast to master scaling, is not sufficient for calibration for individual scaling behavior and context effects.     

Elevation change and the vulnerability of Rhode Island (USA) salt marshes to sea-level rise

Salt marshes persist within the intertidal zone when marsh elevation gains are commensurate with rates of sea-level rise (SLR). Monitoring changes in marsh elevation in concert with tidal water levels is therefore an effective way to determine if salt marshes are keeping pace with SLR over time. Surface elevation tables (SETs) are a common method for collecting precise data on marsh elevation change. Southern New England is a hot spot for SLR, but few SET elevation change datasets are available for the region. Our study synthesizes elevation change data collected from 1999 to 2015 from a network of SET stations throughout Rhode Island (RI). These data are compared to accretion and water level data from the same time period to estimate shallow subsidence and determine whether marshes are tracking SLR. Salt marsh elevation increased at a mean overall rate of 1.40 mm year^?1 and ranged from ?0.33 to 3.36 mm year^?1 at individual stations. Shallow subsidence dampened elevation gain in mid-Narragansett Bay marshes, but in other areas of coastal RI, subsurface processes may augment surface accretion. In all cases, marsh elevation gain was exceeded by the 5.26 mm year^?1 rate of increase in sea levels during the study period. Our study provides the first SET elevation change data from RI and shows that most RI marshes are not keeping pace with short- or long-term rates of SLR. It also lends support to previous research that implicates SLR as a primary driver of recent changes to southern New England salt marshes.     

上海海域溢油生态环境风险区划研究

上海海域海洋资源丰富,对于现今频发的溢油事故,开展相应的生态环境风险区划研究,对事故周边生态敏感资源采取及时有效防护,特别是饮用水源地的保护是尤为迫切和重要的。结合上海海域生态敏感资源分布情况和溢油特征信息,利用灰色模糊综合评价法,对海域生态敏感区敏感系数进行模糊评判,综合分析历年溢油事故及船舶流量统计资料,基于GIS平台对事故高发区污染源周边生态敏感区进行风险等级划分,以大比例尺上海海域溢油生态环境风险区划图直观反应溢油影响范围、高风险区和生态敏感资源保护顺序等信息,为事发后海域应急响应工作提供简便快捷的基础性分析依据。     

How much could a tanker spill cost British Columbians?

Ocean-based industries provide employment for nearly 30 % of the population in the North Coast region of British Columbia. Marine resource dependence has raised concerns about the possible economic impacts of a tanker spill along the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway shipping route, which would export 525,000 barrels (bbls) per day of oil, bitumen, and condensate from Kitimat, British Columbia, to international markets. This study uses current and projected future values of four ocean-based industries and the Enbridge Northern Gateway project to estimate total (i.e., direct, indirect, and induced) economic effects on total output, employment, and gross domestic product (GDP) and impacts on the regional economy over a 50-year period under three potential spill scenarios: no impact (no spill), medium impact (a 63,000-bbl spill), and high impact (a 257,000-bbl spill). The proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway project could produce total positive economic effects of $600 million in output, 5,700–8,400 person years (PYs) of employment, and $300 million in GDP in the North Coast region. A medium impact tanker spill could cause losses of $40–$190 million in output, 400–1,500 PYs of employment, and $20–$100 million in GDP, and a high-impact spill could cause losses of $90–$300 million in output, 1,650–4,500 PYs of employment, and $70–$200 million in GDP.     

能源价格变动对中国节能降耗的影响效应

在分析我国能源比价扭曲对能耗强度影响效应的基础上,建立了Bayesian时变动态回归模型,测算了能源价格变动对能耗的影响效果及变动趋势。主要结论为:①能源比价关系的调整比单种能源价格的国际接轨更为重要。相比国际市场的能源比价结构,中国能源商品价格结构的扭曲度提高了中国的能耗强度,促进了第二产业的增长。②能源价格的变动对单位GDP能耗的影响效应具有显著的时变特征。在电力、煤炭、石油三种能源中,电力价格的变动对能耗强度的影响最大。电力价格变化对单位GDP能耗的影响边际效应在逐年下降,但节能的效果仍很显著。煤电价格联动制约及"从量计征"的资源税偏低使得煤炭价格的上涨反而加大了能耗强度,且1996年以来煤炭价格的提高对单位GDP能耗上升的影响效应还在不断加强,原油价格的提高对单位GDP能耗的影响在不同的时间段有不同的作用,但相对煤炭及电力价格来说,石油价格的影响效应最小。2002年以前石油价格的上升对能耗的上升起助推作用,2003年后石油价格的上升对能耗的上升起降低作用且强度逐年加大。