Home range and the expression of nonresidence in bank voles (<Emphasis Type=Italic>Clethrionomys glareolus</Emphasis>): Interpretation of the results of marking at live-trap lines

The distribution of activity of bank voles along a live-trap line can be approximated by the normal law. The standard deviation is a stable characteristic of the sizes of regularly used space. Occurrence of an animal beyond a distance of three standard deviations from the center of activity is regarded as an expression of nonresidence. Different types of space use have been found: equilibrium and drifting home ranges, movements, and excursions. Formal criteria for distinguishing space use patterns are presented.     

Long-term population dynamics of ixodid ticks and development of tick-borne encephalitis foci under conditions of the middle taiga subzone

Long-term (1995–2003) population dynamics of ixodid ticks and their main hosts (small mammals) and conditions providing for the formation of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) foci were studies in the middle taiga subzone (Karelia). The results show that the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus Schr.) is the main host for the larvae and nymphs of Ixodes persulcatus Schulze, 1930 and for the larvae, nymphs, and adult individuals of I. trianguliceps Birula, 1895. The proportion of ticks feeding on this species (relative to their total number) reaches 63.3% (64.0% of I. persulcatus and 61.1% of I. trianguliceps). Activity of a TBE focus is determined primarily by the abundance of bank voles of older age groups.     

北京市人口动态模拟与政策分析

随着城市化进程的加快,我国城市规模不断膨胀,超过1 000万的超大城市不断涌现,城市人口规模过大、增长过快以及带来的城市问题引起社会各界的关注。北京作为一个人口超过2 000万的超大城市,不仅具有超大城市的一般特征,而且具有首都所在城市的特点。本文在厘清北京人口增长机制的基础上,采用系统动力学方法,通过政策模拟,考察不同政策导向对未来北京市人口增长趋势的影响,得到以下结论:1如果保持当前的经济增长速度,并按当前的生产技术水平以及产业结构变化趋势发展,未来北京人口规模将持续快速增长,到2030年将突破3 000万人,2050年将接近5 000万人,城市面临巨大的人口压力。2单纯通过产业结构升级对调控人口作用有限。3适当放缓经济增长速度以及大力提高劳动生产率可以有效控制人口的快速增长,挤出大量的低端劳动力,人口调控效果明显。4户籍制度的适度放开在一定程度上减少了外来人口规模,但对人口总量的减少并没有起到作用。5与单纯采用一种政策调整相比,多种调控政策并举调控人口的效果更佳。由此得到以下几点启示:首先,每个城市都应该有自己的功能定位,决不能搞"大而全"和千城一面,尤其不能将城市经济增长速度和总量作为城市发展的主要目标甚至唯一目标,不顾后果和不择手段地追求GDP。否则城市人口规模的无序扩大就很难避免,也很难治理。对于北京而言,发挥其政治、文化、国际交往以及科技创新中心的首都功能,大力发展现代服务业,提高劳动生产率,优化产业结构才有利于人口的有序发展。另外,政府在人口调控方面必须有所作为,但也不能对人口调控进行大包大揽,取代市场。政府要顺应经济和社会发展的规律,顺势而为,出台相应的系列综合性调控政策。只有这样,才能对人口调控起到更好的效果。     

Spatiotemporal population structure of the bank vole in a gradient of technogenic environmental pollution

Between 1998 and 2005, specific features of spatiotemporal distribution of small mammals in transformed habitats were studied using the example of the bank vole living in a gradient of chemical environmental pollution (the Middle Urals). Technogenic degradation of spruce-fir forests proved to entail significant changes in the spatial structure and abundance of vole populations. Differences in colonization of disturbed and intact territories by bank voles at different stages of population dynamics were revealed.     

城市化发展过程的非线性模拟

模拟城市化发展过程方法提取城市化发展中的人口和经济两个主要因子。根据其相互制约的关系。运用非线性理论构筑城市化发展的非线性模型。并采用定性和定量相结合的方法。进行数值模拟，并构建这一模型。解释城市化发展过程中的部分现象。这一模型是理想状态下实现的。无法取得现实中准确的数值，仍需加以修正才能更精确的模拟城市化发展的现实过程。     

Population cycles of the bank vole in the range optimum

Patterns of seasonal and long-term dynamics of the size and structure of the bank vole population were studied in the European subtaiga subzone, the optimum of the species range. The dynamics of this population proved to undergo complex fluctuations with cyclic components, which have periods of one year and about three years. The one-year fluctuations of the population size and structure are accounted for by animal adaptation to seasonal changes in environmental factors. The fluctuations with the three-year quasi-period are determined by intrapopulation density-dependent mechanisms.     

四川省土地承载力研究的系统动力学仿真模型

本文利用系统动力学理论,建立了四川省土地承载能力的动态仿真模型,模型中包括土地利用、人口、种植业、畜牧业、渔业等子系统,文中阐述了土地承载力模型的建立过程和方法,模拟了四川未来45年土地承载力系统的动态变化轨迹,提出了两种方案,并对其仿真结果进行了分析。     

Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

Spatial population structure in forest voles of the genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clethrionomys</Emphasis> in the southern taiga of the Middle Irtysh region

A comparative analysis of spatial population structure in the northern red-backed vole (Clethrionomys rutilus Pall.) and large-toothed red-backed vole (Cl. rufocanus Sund.) has been performed in the middle taiga zone of the Middle Irtysh region (Omsk oblast). Populations of these species are represented by sets of territorial groups whose numbers and spatial distribution change from year to year depending on the ratio of these species in a biotope and their population density. There is no significant interspecific competition between cohabitant Cl. rutilus and Cl. rufocanus. In particular, this follows from the fact that the population density and distribution pattern of one species are independent of those of the other species. It has been found that the size of home ranges in Cl. rutilus inversely depends on its population density, with that in Cl. rufocanus remaining approximately the same at different population densities, and that the structure of the resident part of the population in both species changes during the season, as voles from neighboring habitats or dispersing voles settle in the study area.     

Comparative Analysis of Coat Color Morphs in a Polymorphic Population of the Northern Mole Vole

Long-term stationary observations (1985–2000) on a polymorphic population of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.) in Kurgan oblast were performed using the mark-recapture method. Original data were obtained on the abundance and structure of this population, which comprised individuals of three color morphs: black, brown, and intermediate (bicolor). Each morph proved to have its specific features with respect to abundance, age and sex composition, migration, birthrate, mortality, and life span. In general, this polymorphism contributes to population heterogeneity and the maintenance of population homeostasis.     

大别山五针松种群结构及动态研究

大别山五针松(Pinus dabeshanensis)是大别山区特有种,最大种群分布于安徽省岳西县大王沟。采用空间序列代替时间的方法分析种群结构,编制种群特定时间生命表,绘制死亡率曲线和消失率曲线,并用4个生存函数进行种群的生存分析;同时结合谱分析方法,分析了大别山五针松种群数量的动态变化。结果表明:大别山五针松种群数量少,结构存在波动性。幼苗阶段个体较丰富,幼树阶段个体较少,种群趋于衰退。种群死亡率和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,在第5龄级出现峰值。4个生存函数曲线表明,大别山五针松具有前期快速减少、中期稳定和后期衰退的特点。谱分析显示,大别山五针松种群动态除受基波影响外,还具有明显的小周期波动,谐波A3和A4处的周期波动与个体生长有关。     

Daily Activity and Mobility of the Common Shrew (Sorex araneus L.)

Data on the daily activity and mobility of the common shrew (Sorex araneusL.) were obtained by the method of animal marking and recapturing in test plots. Sex- and age-related differences in the locomotor activity of animals were revealed, which depended on population size and the phase of the population cycle. Under natural conditions, animal activity in the daytime proved to decrease to a lesser extent than in captivity. The mobility (locomotor activity) of shrews was shown to depend on population density, reproductive rate, and weather.     

Body condition and reproductive characteristics of female water voles (Arvicola terrestris L.)

The relationship between long-term dynamics of reproductive parameters and body condition were studied in female water voles from a cycling population. Body condition was estimated from the deviation of body weight (excluding the weight of the uterus with embryos) from the theoretically expected weight calculated from the equation of body weight regression with respect to body length. As the index of body condition increases upon transition from decline to peak in the population cycle, the numbers of corpora lutea and live embryos also increase and the risk of resorption of the entire litter becomes lower.     

上海城市人口郊区化的经济因素分析

研究1990—2004年上海户籍人口分布变动情况。发现1993年上海人口分布变动出现拐点。1994年人口分布变动与郊区化明显活跃。通过建立模型进行模拟。对上海人口郊区化的经济影响因素分析。得出以下结论：人均GDP、城市基础设施投资和住宅投资这三个经济因素对上海城市人口郊区化产生重要影响；上海人均GDP恰好为2000美元时，上海城市人口郊区化明显活跃。这与西方发达国家在人均GDP3000美元时人口郊区化活跃形成对比。     

洞庭平原褐家鼠种群动态和繁殖特性

褐家鼠是洞庭平原稻作区的主要害鼠之一，在房舍区数量动态复杂，季节消长基本上属春冬双峰型，在农田区数量季节消长为夏秋双峰型。褐家鼠总雌性比为５２．０％，全年繁殖．３～１０月为繁殖盛期，盛期平均怀孕率为３４．９１±８．６９％，平均胎仔数为８．２±ｌ．０，４、７、９月出现怀孕高峰，１１月至翌年２月为繁殖低潮期。褐家鼠在洞庭平原７０年代数量较低，８０年代初暴发成灾，８０年代后期数量有逐步下降趋势。针对种群特征，提出了控制褐家鼠种群数量的对策。     

Relationship between the Population Dynamics of the Gypsy Moth (Lymantria dispar L., Lymantriidae: Lepidoptera) and the Genetic Polymorphism of the Nuclear Polyhedrosis Virus

The population dynamics of the gypsy moth and the genomic DNA of the nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV) pathogenic for this insect were simultaneously studied using nucleic acid molecular hybridization (NAMH). It was demonstrated that population outbreaks of the gypsy moth were accompanied by an increase in its sensitivity to NPV and in the genetic polymorphism of NPV strains circulating in the insect populations. The hybridization activity of the virus strains isolated at the phase of gypsy moth population growth was significantly higher (p < 0.001) than the activity of the strains isolated at the phase of population decrease.