Jointly estimating survival and mortality: integrating recapture and recovery data from complex multiple predator systems

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Identifying where, when, and how many animals live and die over time is principal to understanding factors that influence population dynamics....     

Nonparametric spatial regression of survival probability: visualization of population sinks in Eurasian woodcock

Both evolutionary ecologists and wildlife managers make inference based on how fitness and demography vary in space. Spatial variation in survival can be difficult to assess in the wild because (1) multisite study designs are not well suited to populations that are continuously distributed across a large area and (2) available statistical models accounting for detectability less than 1.0 do not easily cope with geographical coordinates. Here we use penalized splines within a Bayesian state-space modeling framework to estimate and visualize survival probability in two dimensions. The approach is flexible in that no parametric form for the relationship between survival and coordinates need be specified a priori. To illustrate our method, we study a game species, the Eurasian Woodcock Scolopax rusticola, based on band recovery data (5000 individuals) collected over a > 50 000-km2 area in west-central France with contrasted habitats and hunting pressures. We find that spatial variation in survival probability matches an index of hunting pressure and creates a mosaic of population sources and sinks. Such analyses could provide guidance concerning the spatial management of hunting intensity or could be used to identify pathways of spatial variation in fitness, for example, to study adaptation to changing landscape and climate.     

Biological and oceanographic insights from larval labrid (Pisces: Labridae) identification using mtDNA sequences

Polymerase chain reaction and direct comparison of mitochondrial DNA sequences from a cytochrome b gene fragment were used to identify two morphologically distinct larval types ofXyrichtys, a genus of tropical wrasse (Pisces: Labridae). Both larval types were collected during ichthyoplankton surveys on the Middle Atlantic Bight shelf in the summer of 1988. DNA sequence comparisons indicated that both types were larvae ofXyrichtys novacula (Linnaeus). Back-calculated birthdate distributions for those larvae collected on the Middle Atlantic Bight shelf demonstrated that the two larval types formed two distinct cohorts indicating a biological difference. The two distinct larval types may be a consequence of an ecophenotypic effect, or they may represent offspring from genetically distinct populations. These results emphasize that important biological and oceanographic information can be gained through the use of the polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing for larval identificaiton.     

Escape from UV threats in zooplankton: a cocktail of behavior and protective pigmentation

In order to avoid environmental threats, organisms may respond by altering behavior or phenotype. Using experiments performed in high-latitude Siberia and in temperate Sweden, we show for the first time that, among freshwater crustacean zooplankton, the defense against threats from ultraviolet radiation (UV) is a system where phenotypic plasticity and behavioral escape mechanisms function as complementary traits. Freshwater copepods relied mainly on accumulating protective pigments when exposed to UV radiation, but Daphnia showed strong behavioral responses. Pigment levels for both Daphnia and copepods were generally higher at higher latitudes, mirroring different UV threat levels. When released from the UV threat, Daphnia rapidly reduced (within 10 days) their UV protecting pigmentation-by as much as 40%--suggesting a cost in maintaining UV protective pigmentation. The evolutionary advantage of protective pigments is, likely, the ability to utilize the whole water column during daytime; conversely, since the amount of algal food is generally higher in surface waters, unpigmented individuals are restricted to a less preferred feeding habitat in deeper waters. Our main conclusion is that different zooplankton taxa, and similar taxa at different latitudes, use different mixes of behavior and pigments to respond to UV radiation.     

Environmental information stored in otoliths: insights from stable isotopes

The present study compares the stable oxygen-and carbon-isotope ratios (¹⁸0:¹⁶O;¹³C:¹²C) in the otoliths of Atlantic cod,Gadus morhua, with those expected at equilibrium with seawater. Otoliths from juveniles reared for a 3 mo period under controlled conditions indicate that otoliths are formed in isotopic disequilibrium with seawater. This is probably due to positive metabolic fractionating of the heavier isotopes. This vital effect remains constant over the temperature range studied here (9 to 16°C) but may differ among other species. Our data indicate that the concentration of¹⁸O in calcium carbonate is inversely related to temperature and is described as ¹⁸O_a – _w – 3.79 – 0.200(T°C). The¹³C:¹²C ratios of otoliths and body tissues are related to the carbon ratio in the food source, although we found that the¹³C concentration is considerably higher in the otoliths relative te, the body tissues and the diet.     

A correction to: biological and oceanographic insights from larval labrid (Pisces: Labridae) identification using mtDNA sequences

Previously published mtDNA cytochrome b sequences for Xyrichtys novacula (Linnaeus) and two morphologically distinct types of Xyrichtys larvae (Pisces: Labridae) included human cytochrome b sequence, presumably due to sample contamination and/or poor preservation of sample DNA. Those sequences had been used to identify the two types of Xyrichtys larvae as X. novacula, but owing to the contamination, the identifications are invalid. Fresh specimens were collected: X.␣martinicensis (Cuvier and Valenciennes), X. novacula, X. splendens (Castelnau), and Xyrichtys sp. larvae of each of the two morphotypes (dorsal-forward eye and ventral-forward eye). The cytochrome b fragment was amplified from each specimen using the polymerase chain reaction. Comparison of the sequences with human cytochrome b sequence confirmed that the new sequences were not contaminated. The interspecific differences in Xyrichtys sequences were less than previously reported, but still greater than observed in many fish genera. Distance and parsimony analyses indicated that X. novacula and X. martinicensis were more closely related to each other than to X. splendens. This conclusion differs from our previous conclusion that X. martinicensis and X. splendens were more closely related to each other than to X. novacula. Distance and parsimony analyses also demonstrated that both larval morphotypes were X. novacula and, thus, our previous conclusions regarding larval ecology and oceanographic transport remain unchanged. Received: 12 March 1997 / Accepted: 24 October 1997     

The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data

Statistical characterization of past fire regimes is important for both the ecology and management of fire-prone ecosystems. Survival analysis—or fire frequency analysis as it is often called in the fire literature—has increasingly been used over the last few decades to examine fire interval distributions. These distributions can be generated from a variety of sources (e.g., tree rings and stand age patterns), and analysis typically involves fitting the Weibull model. Given the widespread use of fire frequency analysis and the increasing availability of mapped fire history data, our goal has been to review and to examine some of the issues faced in applying these methods in a spatially explicit context. In particular, through a case study on the massive Cedar Fire in 2003 in southern California, we examine sensitivities of parameter estimates to the spatial resolution of sampling, point- and area-based methods for assigning sample values, current age surfaces versus historical intervals in generating distributions, and the inclusion of censored (i.e., incomplete) observations. Weibull parameter estimates were found to be roughly consistent with previous fire frequency analyses for shrublands (i.e., median age at burning of ~30–50 years and relatively low age dependency). Results indicate, however, that the inclusion or omission of censored observations can have a substantial effect on parameter estimates, far more than other decisions about specifics of sampling.

When to come out from your own shell: risk-sensitive hiding decisions in terrapins

Animals should optimize the decision of when to come out from a refuge after a predators unsuccessful attack because hiding may be costly. Many prey run to hide in refuges in their habitat, whereas others are sessile and take refuge in a protective structure surrounding their body. An intermediate situation is when animals, such as turtles, have morphological structures that provide some partial protection, but they are also able to escape actively to safer refuges. This might complicate hiding decisions predicted by the theory of optimal-refuge use. We studied antipredatory tactics of Spanish terrapins (Mauremys leprosa) in response to simulated predatory attacks with different characteristics (i.e. combinations of several risk factors) and under different conditions (i.e. proximity to safe refuges), which should contribute to overall risk-level estimation. We specifically examined how risk level affected time spent withdrawn into the shell and time until turtles switched to an active escape tactic. The results showed that turtles were able to adjust their hiding behavior by assessing the risk of emerging before the predator had left the area. However, increasing hiding time may also increase the risk that the predator was able to injure or kill the turtle. Thus, the possibility of switching the antipredatory tactic to an alternative active escape to safer refuges (i.e. water) also influenced hiding times.Communicated by P. Bednekoff     

Perceptions of incentives for participation: insights from joint forest management in India

The participatory approach in management of forests is now well established in forest policies of many developing countries. Incentives for different groups to participate have been argued by many to be desirable characteristics to promote participation. A key challenge for government and donor agencies is to develop better understanding of the incentives for different groups to be able to achieve and sustain their participation. Based on a case study of a joint forest management (JFM) programme in the northern state of Haryana in India, this paper highlights the relevance of understanding people's perception of the incentives. It specifically examines three hypotheses related to perceptions of villagers about incentives offered under the JFM programme and relates them to their participation in joint management. It concludes that a better understanding is likely to help in improving project implementation at the local level and the design of participatory forest management programmes more generally.     

Predicting richness effects on ecosystem function in natural communities: insights from high-elevation streams

. Despite the increased complexity of experimental and theoretical studies on the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (B-EF) relationship, a major challenge is to demonstrate whether the observed importance of biodiversity in controlled experimental systems also persists in nature. Due to their structural simplicity and their low levels of human impacts, extreme species-poor ecosystems may provide new insights into B-EF relationships in natural systems. We address this issue using shredder invertebrate communities and organic matter decomposition rates in 24 high-altitude (3200-3900 m) Neotropical streams as a study model. We first assessed the effects of stream characteristics and shredder diversity and abundance on organic matter decomposition rates in coarse- and fine-mesh bags. We found the interaction term shredder richness x shredder abundance had the most significant impact on decomposition rates in the field, although water discharge may also play a role locally. We also examined the relative contribution of the three most abundant shredders on decomposition rates by manipulating shredder richness and community composition in a field experiment. Transgressive overyielding was detected among the three shredder species, indicating complementary resource use and/or facilitation. By integrating survey and experimental data in surface response analyses we found that observed B-EF patterns fit those predicted by a linear model that described litter decomposition rates as a function of increasing shredder richness and the relative abundance of the most efficient shredders. Finally, the validity of our approach was tested in a broader context by using two independent but comparable data sets from 49 French and Swedish streams showing more complex shredder community structure. Results revealed that richness and identity effects on decomposition rates were lost with increasing shredder community complexity. Our approach of combining experimental and empirical data with modeling in species-poor ecosystems may serve as an impetus for new B-EF studies. If theory can explain B-EF in low-diversity ecosystems, it may also have credibility in more complex ones.     

Hermaphroditism in brown shrimp: lessons from field data and modelling

This study was undertaken to further clarify whether the brown shrimp, Crangon crangon (Linnaeus 1758), is a gonochorist, a facultative or an obligate hermaphrodite. Juvenile shrimps were sampled from intertidal habitats along the German Wadden Sea coast with a push net and from a power plant water inlet to quantify the share of primary females. Length-based sex ratios were determined for about 27,000 individuals using external characteristics. Observed sex ratios were mainly female-biased, and also large males occurred regularly in the catch. This indicates that sex at hatch is not male as would be characteristic for an obligate protandric hermaphrodite and that not all male shrimps change sex. A cohort-based computer simulation, including sex-specific growth rates, mortality and seasonally varying recruitment, generated sex ratios comparable to the field. The observed decline in the proportion of males with increasing size can be explained solely by faster growth of females without involving hermaphroditism. Based on temperature-dependent growth and moult rates as well as length-specific numbers of eggs per female, the potential egg production of primary and secondary females was modelled, yielding contributions of secondary females of <1%. Sex change in C. crangon has previously been observed and may be interpreted as an evolutionary relict of this species having evolved in a habitat characterized by lower population densities, lower predation levels and increased longevity compared to today’s living conditions in North Sea coastal waters.     

Sexual segregation in distribution,diet and trophic level of seabirds: insights from stable isotope analysis

Considerable attention has focused on inter- and intraspecific variation in trophic niches of marine predators. Although this has revealed evidence for sexual segregation in distribution in some species, few studies have been able to address sex-related dietary specialisation. Stable isotope analysis of blood cells collected from albatrosses and petrels at South Georgia during chick-rearing indicated a difference in δ¹³C, suggesting that females fed to the north of males, only in two species with male-biased sexual size dimorphism; in no species did sexes differ in trophic level (δ¹⁵N). Based on a wider review, significant differences between sexes in isotope signatures were much more common in seabirds during the pre-laying or breeding than the nonbreeding period, presumably reflecting greater between-sex partitioning of resources when foraging ranges are more constrained and competition is greater. Sex differences, or their absence, were usually consistent across successive stages during the pre-laying and breeding periods, but not necessarily year-round nor between populations. Significant differences in isotope signatures between males and females were extremely rare in monomorphic species, suggesting a link between sexual size dimorphism and segregation in diet or distribution. Among the Southern Ocean albatrosses, sex differences in δ¹³C suggested the underlying mechanism was related to habitat specialisation, whereas in other size-dimorphic taxa (both male- and female-biased), sex differences were more common in δ¹⁵N than δ¹³C and therefore more consistent with size-mediated competitive exclusion or dietary specialisation.     

Extremes, plasticity, and invariance in vertebrate life history traits: insights from coral reef fishes

Life history theory predicts a range of directional generic responses in life history traits with increasing organism size. Among these are the relationships between size and longevity, mortality, growth rate, timing of maturity, and lifetime reproductive output. Spanning three orders of magnitude in size, coral reef fishes provide an ecologically diverse and species-rich vertebrate assemblage in which to test these generic responses. Here we examined these relationships by quantifying the life cycles of three miniature species of coral reef fish from the genus Eviota (Gobiidae) and compared their life history characteristics with other reef fish species. We found that all three species of Eviota have life spans of < 100 days, suffer high daily mortality rates of 7-8%, exhibit rapid linear growth, and matured at an earlier than expected size. Although lifetime reproductive output was low, consistent with their small body sizes, short generation times of 47-74 days help overcome low individual fecundity and appear to be a critical feature in maintaining Eviota populations. Comparisons with other coral reef fish species showed that Eviota species live on the evolutionary margins of life history possibilities for vertebrate animals. This addition of demographic information on these smallest size classes of coral reef fishes greatly extends our knowledge to encompass the full size spectrum and highlights the potential for coral reef fishes to contribute to vertebrate life history studies.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of habitat use by Eurasian oystercatchers (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Haematopus ostralegus</Emphasis>) in the eastern Wadden Sea revealed using GPS data loggers

Detailed knowledge on species–habitat relationships is of crucial importance for the understanding of processes in marine ecosystems. Being top-predators, birds are important bio-indicators for marine systems. The aim of this study was to elucidate precise information on foraging habitat use and foraging times of oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus) on wide tidal flats using global positioning system (GPS) data loggers. The study was conducted to collect hints for the negative population trends in oystercatchers in the Wadden Sea. It is the first time that GPS technique has been used in a shorebird species. Although oystercatchers are known to exhibit foraging site fidelity, a number of individuals visited multiple sites. Foraging trips at night were longer, and the targeted sites were further away than those used during the day. These patterns were likely to be caused by higher risks of clutch predation by avian predators during the day that led adults to reduce their absence to defend their clutches. Our methodological approach enabled the subtle spatio-temporal patterns of habitat use to be determined on a very fine spatio-temporal scale. We suggest further potential studies using GPS data loggers that may help to reveal the reasons for the current declines in oystercatcher populations in the German Wadden Sea.     

Changes in the phytoplankton community at Helgoland, North Sea: lessons from single spot time series analyses

In recent regime shift analyses, the phytoplankton compartment of the marine food web was essentially represented by phytoplankton color or chlorophyll concentration. A detection of changes directly at the species level is highly desirable. The Helgoland Roads data series, a collection of high frequency long-term time series comprising biological and physico-chemical components of the southern North Sea, allow such an investigation at the level of single species. Aiming at a detection and characterization of habitat and community changes in the observation period (1962 until the end of 2008), we selected six species as representatives of certain classes, for example, benthic or neritic species, and applied a combination of novel analysis methods—a fitness-based analysis of the realized niche, a bloom-triggered averaging and a Markovian analysis of co-occurrence and succession patterns—to related abundance time series and concurrent environmental parameter time series. We found a general trend toward enlargement of niche size and shifts of the niche position, interesting salinity patterns around bloom events of two species, and statistically highly significant changes of a phytoplankton community segment after 1965 and after 1998. Interpreting our observations in ecological terms leads to the formulation of testable hypotheses.     

Error propagation in spatial modeling of public health data: a simulation approach using pediatric blood lead level data for Syracuse,New York

Lead poisoning produces serious health problems, which are worse when a victim is younger. The US government and society have tried to prevent lead poisoning, especially since the 1970s; however, lead exposure remains prevalent. Lead poisoning analyses frequently use georeferenced blood lead level data. Like other types of data, these spatial data may contain uncertainties, such as location and attribute measurement errors, which can propagate to analysis results. For this paper, simulation experiments are employed to investigate how selected uncertainties impact regression analyses of blood lead level data in Syracuse, New York. In these simulations, location error and attribute measurement error, as well as a combination of these two errors, are embedded into the original data, and then these data are aggregated into census block group and census tract polygons. These aggregated data are analyzed with regression techniques, and comparisons are reported between the regression coefficients and their standard errors for the error added simulation results and the original results. To account for spatial autocorrelation, the eigenvector spatial filtering method and spatial autoregressive specifications are utilized with linear and generalized linear models. Our findings confirm that location error has more of an impact on the differences than does attribute measurement error, and show that the combined error leads to the greatest deviations. Location error simulation results show that smaller administrative units experience more of a location error impact, and, interestingly, coefficients and standard errors deviate more from their true values for a variable with a low level of spatial autocorrelation. These results imply that uncertainty, especially location error, has a considerable impact on the reliability of spatial analysis results for public health data, and that the level of spatial autocorrelation in a variable also has an impact on modeling results.     

Corematal function in Utetheisa ornatrix: interpretation in the light of data from field-collected males

Summary. Males of the moth Utetheisa ornatrix produce a pheromone, hydroxydanaidal, contained in two brush-like organs, the coremata, which they evert during courtship. Hydroxydanaidal is derived chemically by the males from pyrrolizidine alkaloids that they sequester from their larval food plants. It had been shown previously that the amount of hydroxydanaidal in the coremata correlates positively with a number of male parameters that are a measure of the male’s “worth.” Hydroxydanaidal could thus be used by the female as a basis for discrimination in courtship. Experiments carried out with virgin Utetheisa had shown that females do indeed mate selectively with males of high corematal hydroxydanaidal content, thereby accruing the multiple benefits that are the consequence of such selectivity. Unresolved was the question whether corematal hydroxydanaidal could still provide a basis for female appraisal of suitors when these had previously mated. Given the proven promiscuity of the female, male Utetheisa could be expected to be promiscuous as well. Evidence we present here shows that field-collected males, which could be expected to be mostly non-virginal, are of reduced acceptability to females. They are also, on average, in possession of lower quantities of hydroxydanaidal, explaining possibly why they should be held in lesser regard. At low levels, however, hydroxydanaidal does not lend itself for precise assessment of male worth, because as we show herein, at such levels, the compound does not correlate with any of the criteria of male quality (male size, spermatophore mass, male pyrrolizidine alkaloid content, amount of pyrrolizidine alkaloid transmitted to the female). Males that have mated beforehand are therefore likely not to be classed into subcategories by the females, but simply as belonging to one category of “less desirables”. The significance of these findings to our understanding of the mating strategy of Utetheisa is discussed.     

Heavy metals in top core sediments from the southern Campania shelf (Italy): Hints to define large-scale geochemical backgrounds

The results of a geochemical survey carried out on the southern Campania shelf (southern Italy) are illustrated, offering a tempting opportunity to discuss the statement and definition of regional geochemical backgrounds for selected heavy metals. A total of 104 top core sediments, collected on average 1.5 km from one another and covering a shelf area of about 1300 km², were analysed for grain size, organic carbon content (OC), and heavy-metal (As, Al, Fe, Cd, V, Cr, Zn, Cu, Ni, Hg, and Pb) concentrations. The characteristics of the area, scarcely influenced by industrial activities, and the extensive data set, make this study suitable for an appropriate multivariate and spatial geostatistical methodologies used for i) a reliable definition of large-scale marine sediments' geochemical backgrounds and ii) an accurate discrimination of different geological controls on trace-element distribution patterns. Enrichment factors estimated with respect to both the average shale composition and the weighted average metal concentrations measured in inland soils rule out significant anthropogenic inputs. A spatial-geostatistics approach (kriging of spatial component based on an accurate implementation of variographic surveying) was applied, and this is proposed as an appropriate quantitative methodology to define the geochemical backgrounds for the different heavy metals. Two nested spatial structures were identified for some of the heavy metals, thus allowing clear identification of local and regional geochemical controls related to the different spatial variability of grain size.