Lineage Loss in Serengeti Cheetahs: Consequences of High Reproductive Variance and Heritability of Fitness on Effective Population Size

Abstract: In natural populations, many breeders do not leave surviving offspring, and as a result many potential genetic lineages are lost. I examined lineage extinction in Serengeti cheetahs ( Acinonyx jubatus ) and found that 76% of matrilines were lost over a 25-year period. Production of future breeders was nonrandom and generally confined to a few families. Five out of 63 matrilines accounted for 45% of the total cheetah population over the course of the study. Lineage persistence is perhaps best illustrated by the variance in lifetime reproductive success ( LRS) and heritability in this parameter. In female cheetahs, variance in LRS was high, and new data show that this LRS was heritable. Variance in LRS and heritability in LRS have dramatic consequences for effective population size, N _e. I calculated N _e for cheetahs, taking into account fluctuating population size, unequal sex ratio, non-Poisson distribution of reproductive success, and heritability of fitness. The N _e was most strongly affected by variance in reproductive success and especially heritability in reproductive success. The variance N _e was 44% of the actual population size, and the inclusion of heritability further reduced N _e to only 15% of the actual population, a ratio similar to that of a social carnivore with reproductive suppression. The current cheetah population in the Serengeti is below numbers suggested by N _e estimates as sufficient to maintain sufficient genetic diversity.     

Sources of variation in male mating success and female oviposition rate in a nonterritorial dragonfly

Summary Variance in male mating success and female oviposition rate was studied on a lifetime and daily scale in a nonterritorial libellulid dragonfly. While controlling for weather, population density, and sex ratio, we investigated whether phenotypic variation could explain a significant amount of the observed variation. By collecting most of the data in a large outdoor field enclosure, we had access to (1) real lifetime data as emigration was prevented, (2) exact values of density and sex ratio, and (3) phenotypic data that are virtually unavailable under natural conditions. Variance in LMS was higher in males than variance in lifetime number of ovipositions in females. Lifespan was of major importance in explaining the variation. Males readily remated on the same day whenever possible (maximum 6 times), whereas in females each oviposition bout usually was followed by a nonreproductive period of approximately 4 days. An analysis of the sources of variance in daily reproduction rate showed that, besides the expected effects of weather, an excess of one sex resulted in a negative effect on the individual mating probability of members of that sex. Even after correction for weather and population parameters, phenotypic traits explained a significant amount of the remaining variation: males with a high mating rate were large, agonistic, active mate searching, and long-living individuals. Females were more likely to oviposit when they showed higher flight activity and when more days had elapsed since the previous oviposition. The presence of a strong size effect on male mating probability, and its absence in females, was confirmed at a pond (native habitat). We propose a model on the causal relationships between the relevant parameters and the variation in reproductive success. Finally, we briefly discuss why variance in reproductive success is not a very good measure of the opportunity for sexual selection in this species. Offprint requests to: N.K. Michiels at the present address     

Nest distribution affects behaviour and mating success in a marine fish

The distribution of breeding resources, such as nest sites, can have a pronounced impact on a population by affecting the proportion of individuals that succeed to breed and hence, the variation in reproductive success. Aggregation of important resources can lead to resource monopolisation by a limited number of individuals and thus affect the intensity of sexual selection. In this study, we tested, by contrasting two experimental treatments (dispersed vs. aggregated), how nest distribution affects: (1) mating behaviour, (2) male nest occupation and mating success, and (3) reproductive success and the opportunity for selection. We used the two-spotted goby (Gobiusculus flavescens), a small marine fish with a resource-based mating system, as our model species. When nests were aggregated, a larger proportion of the males behaved aggressively, fewer males succeeded in occupying a nest, fewer males became mated, and those males that mated received fewer eggs from spawning females. These effects resulted in a higher variance in reproductive success and hence, a higher opportunity for selection (I _rs ), in the aggregated treatment. We suggest that the results are a direct consequence of males defending a territory around their nest, preventing competitively inferior males from breeding. However, we found no significant selection differentials for body length or condition of males in either treatment. Our results support the hypothesis that aggregation of essential resources like nests promotes resource monopolisation. In species facing highly clumped nesting resources in the wild, monopolisation may negatively impact population productivity but could lead to strong selection on traits that promote male competitive ability.     

Determinants of reproductive success of the White-browed Sparrow Weaver,Plocepasser mahali

Summary Variation in reproductive success among 26 communal groups in a sampled population of Plocepasser mahali (White-browed Sparrow Weaver) was studied over a 3-year period in Zambia, Africa. Potential determinants of reproductive success, namely resource variables and group size, were examined and statistically analyzed for their significance in explaining annual variance in reproductive success among these groups. Resource variables included abundance of grass seeds (dry season food) and grasshoppers (wet season food), nest tree quality, and percentage availability of preferred feeding cover. Only the latter two proved appropriate for this analysis. Patterns of utilization did not correlate positively with food abundance, and grasshopper abundance fluctuated too much among the groups in a given year to be treated as a stable variable.From an analysis of multiple correlation coefficients in a stepwise multiple regression model, both group size and ground cover explained independently of each other 20%–30% of the variance in annual production of young surviving 6 months. Explained variance by these two variables also revealed that their relative importance varied considerably between years. Hypotheses are offered to explain the possible causal mechanisms these variables may have in influencing intergroup reproductive success and the possible reasons why vagaries in explained variance were observed. It is suggested that effects of group size and habitat quality may be more important than age-specific effects in modeling population growth and regulation for species like P. mahali.     

Social rank, fecundity and lifetime reproductive success in wild European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus)

Wild European rabbits of both sexes have separate linear rank orders, which are established and maintained by intensive fights. This paper presents data from a 14-year study (1987-2000) on the population physiology and behavioural ecology of wild rabbits living in a 22,000 m² enclosure and focuses on the relationship between social rank and reproduction in females. Group composition, social ranks, fecundity and reproductive success were known for all females (n=197) from the outset of their first reproductive season at an age of about 300 days until their death. The annual reproductive success of females was influenced to a large extent by their social rank. This depended on two effects of about equal strength: a higher fecundity of high-ranking females and a lower mortality of their offspring between birth and adulthood. The lifetime reproductive success of the females varied greatly. Only about 50% of all females had any reproductive success (range: on to nine adult offspring). The social rank achieved by the females during their first reproductive season substantially influenced their lifetime reproductive success: The mean reproductive lifespan and lifetime fitness of high-ranking females (ranks 1 and 2) was about 60% greater than that of lower-ranking females, although many of the latter also gained dominant positions in subsequent years.     

Sexual selection and cuckoldry in a monogamous songbird: implications for sexual selection theory

Sexual selection is generally assumed to be weaker in monogamous than in polygynous animals. Recently, though, extra-pair fertilizations have been hailed as an important force in generating variance in reproductive success among males in socially monogamous species, thereby increasing the intensity of sexual selection. To see if extra-pair copulations contribute to variance in male reproductive success in the house finch (Carpodacus mexicanus), we used DNA fingerprinting to determine the paternity of chicks from 35 nests. This species is a socially monogamous passerine in which plumage brightness serves as a sexually selected indicator of male quality. Out of 119, nestlings 10 (8.3%) were fathered by a male other than the attending male, but cuckoldry occurred randomly with respect to the plumage colouration, size, or age of the attending male. Thus extra-pair fertilizations do not generate variance in male reproductive success with respect to plumage colour. On the other hand, a strongly male-biased sex ratio and asynchronous breeding by females may generate substantial variance in male reproductive success and could explain the evolution of ornamental colouration.     

Sexual selection and reproductive careers in mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx)

In sexually dimorphic, polygynous species, where males provide little parental care and competition between males for access to fertile females is high, sexual selection theory predicts sex differences in age-specific reproductive output and mortality profiles, and greater variance in lifetime reproductive success in males than in females. We examined age-specific reproductive output, mortality patterns and the extent and causes of variation in reproductive success for a semi-free-ranging colony of mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx, Cercopithecidae) in Franceville, Gabon, using long-term (20 year) demographic records and microsatellite parentage analysis. Although differences in the demography and feeding ecology of this closed, provisioned colony, in comparison with wild mandrills, limit interpretation of our results, sex differences in reproductive output and mortality showed the patterns predicted by sexual selection theory. Mortality was higher in males than in females after sexual maturity, and lifespan was significantly shorter in males (mean 14 year) than in females (>22 year). Age at first reproduction was significantly earlier in females (mean 4.2 year) than in males (11.6 year), and male reproductive output declined earlier. All females of breeding age produced offspring; while only 17 of 53 sexually mature males (32%) sired. Males sired a maximum of 41 offspring, versus 17 in females, and variance in male reproductive output was significantly greater than in females at all ages. The most important influence on variation in lifetime reproductive output in both sexes was joint variation between length of the breeding period and reproductive rate, due to lower reproductive rates in younger animals. Finally, social rank significantly influenced reproductive output in both sexes: high-ranking females began their reproductive careers earlier and had a higher subsequent reproductive rate than low-ranking females, while males that achieved top rank during their career sired far more offspring than males that did not.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at     

Calculating Biologically Accurate Mitigation Credits: Insights from the California Tiger Salamander

Abstract:  Current conservation mitigation plans often fail to ensure full in-kind habitat replacement for endangered species, which suggests the need for improved methods for calculating mitigation credits. A simple, yet biologically meaningful method for calculating mitigation credits would be to let the number of mitigation credits assigned to a parcel of land scale with the reproductive value of the individuals occupying that parcel. This can be accomplished by dividing the population into 2 or more subdivisions with different reproductive values, calculating the densities of these subdivisions as a function of one or more habitat parameters, and then forming a weighted sum of these densities such that each density distribution is weighted by the reproductive value of its respective subdivision of the population. This weighted sum is the density distribution of reproductive value, and by integrating it over a particular parcel, one can determine the mitigation value of that parcel. We carried out this procedure for a population of California tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma californiense ), with distance from breeding site as our habitat parameter and the 3 visually identifiable age classes (adults, juveniles, and metamorphs) as our population subdivisions. This led to a density distribution of reproductive value that decreased exponentially with increasing distance from a breeding site. Mitigation strategies derived from this function will be more likely to ensure the persistence of California tiger salamander populations than current approaches, which assign all land within 1.6 km of a breeding site the same mitigation value. Use of the density distribution of reproductive value as a basis for mitigation plans is a procedure that can be applied to all endangered species, and it should improve the quality of mitigation decisions.     

Maternal characteristics and the production and recruitment of sons in the eastern kingbird (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Tyrannus tyrannus</Emphasis>)

Sex allocation theory predicts that if variance in reproductive success differs between the sexes, females who are able to produce high-quality young should bias offspring sex ratio towards the sex with the higher potential reproductive success. We tested the hypothesis that high-quality (i.e., heavy) female eastern kingbirds (Tyrannus tyrannus) that bred early in the breeding season would produce male-biased clutches. A significant opportunity for sexual selection also exists in this socially monogamous but cryptically polygamous species, and we predicted that successful extra-pair (EP) sires would be associated with an excess of male offspring. Although population brood sex ratio did not differ from parity, it increased significantly with female body mass and declined with female breeding date, but was independent of the morphology and display (song) behavior (correlates of reproductive success) of social males and EP sires. Male offspring were significantly heavier than female offspring at fledging. Moreover, the probability that male offspring were resighted in subsequent years declined with breeding date, and was greater in replacement clutches, but lower when clutch size was large. Probability of resighting female offspring varied annually, but was independent of all other variables. Given that variance in reproductive success of male kingbirds is much greater than that of females, and that male offspring are more expensive to produce and have a higher probability of recruitment if fledged early in the season, our results support predictions of sex allocation theory: high-quality (heavy) females breeding when conditions were optimal for male recruitment produced an excess of sons.     

Causes and consequences of unequal seedling production in forest trees: a case study in red oaks

Inequality in reproductive success has important implications for ecological and evolutionary dynamics, but lifetime reproductive success is challenging to measure in long-lived species such as forest trees. While seed production is often used as a proxy for overall reproductive success, high mortality of seeds and the potential for trade-offs between seed number and quality draw this assumption into question. Parentage analyses of established seedlings can bring us one step closer to understanding the causes and consequences of variation in reproductive success. In this paper we demonstrate a new method for estimating individual seedling production and average percentage germination, using data from two mixed-species populations of red oaks (Quercus rubra, Q. velutina, Q. falcata, and Q. coccinea). We use these estimates to examine the distribution of female reproductive success and to test the relationship between seedling number and individual seed production, age, and growth rate. We show that both seed and seedling production are highly skewed, roughly conforming to zero-inflated lognormal distributions, rather than to the Poisson or negative-binomial distributions often assumed by population genetics analyses. While the number of established offspring is positively associated with mean annual seed production, a lower proportion of seeds from highly fecund individuals become seedlings. Our red oak populations also show evidence of trade-offs between growth rate and reproductive success. The high degree of inequality in seedling production shown here for red oaks, and by previous studies in other species, suggests that many trees may be more vulnerable to genetic drift than previously thought, if immigration in limited by fragmentation or other environmental changes.     

Survival and lifetime reproductive success in dispersing and resident red squirrels

Dispersal in red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) is not sex-biased and strict philopatry is rare. The immigration pattern suggests that nearly all animals have to disperse away from the natal site and that dispersal in this species is the outcome of local (intrasexual) competition. If this interpretation is correct, we predict that dispersers and residents, of both sexes, should have equal survival rates and lifetime reproductive success. Body mass, longevity, reproductive success and dominance rank of 34 resident offspring (settling within 400 m of the natal range) and 70 immigrants (dispersers) were compared. Immigrants did not weigh less than residents as adults, nor did they have a higher mortality during the pre-setding period. Survival rate, lifetime reproductive success (females) and the proportion of males obtaining a high dominance rank were similar for residents and dispersers, and no sex effect was found on either of the parameters studied. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that local competition determines whether an individual disperses further away or settles close to its birthplace.     

Population trend alters the effects of maternal dominance rank on lifetime reproductive success in yellow baboons (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Papio cynocephalus</Emphasis>)

We evaluated the association between dominance rank and lifetime reproductive success of 75 free-ranging female baboons in Mikumi National Park, Tanzania. Data were evaluated over a 22-year period that included a period of troop increase (1975–1987) associated with two troop splits in 1978 and 1979, followed by a precipitous population crash (1987–1996) where the troops successively fused back together in 1989 and 1994. Lifetime reproductive success was significantly greater for high- versus low-ranking females when examined across the entire study period. High-ranking females had a longer reproductive life span (7.4 vs 3.6 years after first birth), reached menarche earlier (4.6 vs 5.2 years), lived longer (12.0 vs 8.8 years), and had more offspring of both sexes (2.25 vs 1.33 for male offspring; 3.25 vs 0.94 for female offspring), with four times the number of offspring of each sex surviving to 4 years of age compared to low ranking females. Greater offspring production was associated with shorter interbirth intervals of dominant versus subordinate females (545 vs 723 days), partly owing to lower miscarriage rates (0.05 vs 0.2) and a shorter duration of lactation (244 vs 330 days). Rank effects were then partitioned by mothers experiencing the majority of their reproductive life prior to, versus during, the population decline. The majority of rank effects on measures of lifetime reproductive success were virtually eliminated for mothers reproducing during the troop decline, indicating that the considerable impacts of social status on lifetime reproductive success can be markedly altered by intrinsically and extrinsically mediated demographic events.Ramon Rhine is deceasedCommunicated by C. Nunn     

Indications of fitness differences among vocal clans of sperm whales

Cultural variation can affect the genetic evolution of a species if there are consistent cultural differences that contribute to fitness variation between groups of individuals. In this study, measures of the reproductive success of groups of sperm whales from different cultural clans are used as proxies for fitness. We measure reproductive success using population length distributions from acoustic and photographic measurements and visual observations of the presence of calves. The results obtained are generally consistent between methods; there are large and significant differences between the clans in the measures of reproductive success. The results from this study strengthen the case for cultural hitchhiking in sperm whales by indicating that differences in culture between clans correlate with differences in fitness.     

Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Effective Population Size in the Endangered Rio Grande Silvery Minnow

Abstract:  We assessed spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity to evaluate effects of river fragmentation on remnant populations of the federally endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow ( Hybognathus amarus ). Analysis of microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA detected little spatial genetic structure over the current geographic range, consistent with high gene flow despite fragmentation by dams. Maximum-likelihood analysis of temporal genetic data indicated, however, that present-day effective population size ( N_eV ) of the largest extant population of this species was 78 and the ratio of effective size to adult numbers ( N_eV/N ) was ∼ 0.001 during the study period (1999 to 2001). Coalescent-based analytical methods provided an estimate of historical (river fragmentation was completed in 1975) effective size ( N_eI  ) that ranged between 10⁵ and 10⁶. We propose that disparity between contemporary and historical estimates of N_e and low contemporary N_e/N result from recent changes in demography related to river fragmentation. Rio Grande silvery minnows produce pelagic eggs and larvae subject to downstream transport through diversion dams. This life-history feature results in heavy losses of yearly reproductive effort to emigration and mortality, and extremely large variance in reproductive success among individuals and spawning localities. Interaction of pelagic early life history and river fragmentation has altered demographic and genetic dynamics of remnant populations and reduced N_e to critically low values over ecological time.     

Effective Population Size and Lifetime Reproductive Success

The mean and variance of lifetime reproductive success, E_LRS and V_LRS, influence the ratio of effective to census population size, N_e/N_c. Because the complete data needed to calculate E_LRS and V_LRS are seldom available, we provide alternatives for estimating N_e/N_c from incomplete data. These estimates should be useful to conservation biologists trying to compute the effective size of a censused population. An analytical approach makes assumptions regarding the process influencing offspring survival. We provide a method for examining the validity of those assumptions and show that particular violations can result in either over- or underestimates. When the assumptions are violated or when more data are available, we suggest estimating N_e/N_c using computer simulations of models based on individuals. We examine how such simulations can be used to estimate N_e/N_c using an individual-based model for Lesser Snow Geese ( Anser caerulescens ). We demonstrate that such estimates can be biased unless the simulations are based on complete cohorts and samples of known age. We show that because the estimate of N_e/N_c depends on the stage of the reproductive cycle used as a point of reference in the model, the census population size N_c must be based on the same stage to provide unbiased estimates of N_e.     

Fitness consequences of dispersal decisions for male mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)

The fitness consequences of dispersal decisions are difficult to quantify, especially for long-lived species with complex social systems. To calculate those consequences for male mountain gorillas, from the perspective of both subordinate and dominant males, we used behavioral and demographic data obtained over 30 years from the Virunga Volcano population to develop an agent-based model that simulates the life history events, social structure, and population dynamics of the species. The model included variables for birth rates, mortality rates, dispersal patterns, and reproductive skew. The model predicted an average lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of 3.2 for philopatric males (followers) and 1.6 for emigrants. The benefits of philopatry were most sensitive to opportunities for social queuing and to female transfer preferences, but philopatry remained the best strategy over a wide range of group conditions and hypothetical simulations. The average LRS for dominant males was 4.5 when a subordinate stayed and 4.6 when the subordinate emigrated. The dispersal decision of the subordinate male had little impact on the fitness of the dominant male because it came relatively late in the dominant males reproductive life span, and it changed his group composition only incrementally. The fitness consequences for the dominant male were most sensitive to the degree of reproductive skew. Since subordinates suffer a fitness loss when they leave a group, they should accept whatever reproductive restraint is needed to avoid eviction, and the dominant male does not need to offer concessions for them to stay. The dominant male may offer reproductive concessions for other reasons, such as peace incentives or to confuse paternity, or he may not have complete control of reproduction within his group.Communicated by D. Watts     

Wide-spread genetic variability and the paradox of effective population size in the gag,Mycteroperca microlepis,along the West Florida Shelf

Wide-ranging marine species are often described as having a low effective population size (N _e) to census size (N) ratio. This genetic phenomenon is typically attributed to large variation among individuals in reproductive success because of the high mortality rates and unpredictable environments associated with larval dispersal. In this study, we examined patterns of genetic variation in gag (Mycteroperca microlepis) on the West Florida Shelf across year classes of post-settlement juveniles and spawning adults. With no significant genetic differentiation among year classes despite varying recruitment dynamics, little evidence for chaotic genetic patchiness, and no truncation of adult genetic diversity in subsequent juvenile cohorts, there was little support for large variation among individual in reproductive success contributing to a low N _e/N ratio. In fact, the consistent lack of significant differences in annual recruitment classes indicated that reproductive success among individuals was resistant to skewing. Among the various evolutionary forces that may be affecting N _e, changes to demography due to fishing pressure are posited as a likely mechanism affecting current levels of genetic variation.     

Evolutionarily stable strategies of age-dependent sexual advertisement

In various models of sexual selection mediated by the viability indicator (“good genes”) mechanism, a sexually selected trait will truly reflect male quality if its expression is costly for the male. However, in long-lived species, the expression of a trait often increases with age while the genotype of the male remains unchanged. This fact may obscure the indicator mechanism. Hitherto, game theory models of honesty in sexual advertisement have not taken life-history effects into account, whereas life-history models of reproductive effort have only seldom considered the dependence of mating success on the actions of other individuals. Here, the two approaches are combined, and I examine whether honesty is maintained if males can divide their advertisement effort over their lifetime. The model shows that an increase in the expression of the sexually selected trait over several years is an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) under a wide range of situations, so that a correlated preference for old age can emerge through a viability indicator mechanism. Honesty in the strict sense is not preserved: an optimally behaving low-quality male will in some cases advertise more than a high-quality male of equal age, to the extent that the strongest advertisement found in the population can be associated with a low-quality male. Due to life-history trade-offs, however, honesty in an average sense holds true over the lifetime of individuals: “cheater” age classes will remain small enough, that a female will obtain a higher expected mate quality if she trusts in the trait as an indicator of viability. Received: 25 June 1996 / Accepted after revision: 15 April 1997     

Life history costs and consequences of rapid reproductive maturation in female rhesus macaques

Summary Life history theory suggests that reproduction at one point in time involves costs in terms of energy, reduced survival, or probability of reproduction at a future point in time. ln long-lived iteroparous organisms, initiating reproduction at a relatively young age may exact a cost in terms of reduced survivorship, but an early age of first reproduction could be beneficial if it lengthens the breeding lifespan. Data collected over 30 years from one population of rhesus macaques, Macaca mulatta, were analyzed to determine the fertility and survivorship costs of initiating reproduction at a relatively young age. Low population density and high social status increased the chances of accelerating age at first parturition, but high dominance rank was not associated with greater lifetime reproductive success. Rapid reproductive maturation neither reduced short-term survivorship nor decreased lifespan. Fertility costs arose if young females reared a male, but not female, offspring. The fitness consequences of rapid reproductive maturation depend upon longevity, with age at death having a significantly greater impact on lifetime reproductive success than age at first parturition.Correspondence to: F.B. Bercovitch     

Demographic Models and Reality in Reintroductions: Persian Fallow Deer in Israel

Abstract:  Because most reintroduced species are rare, data on their dynamics are scarce. Consequently, reintroduction programs often rely on data from other species or captive populations to project the performance of the reintroduced population in the wild. We compared the reproductive success and survival of a Persian fallow deer ( Dama mesopotamica ) population reintroduced in Israel over the first 5 years of the project with the survival and reproduction parameters estimated while planning the reintroduction. In addition, we compared the actual growth of the wild population with the growth originally projected by a computer model in the original reintroduction program. We monitored 74 radio-collared individuals (57 females and 17 males) released semiannually 1996–2001. Survival during the first year after release was lower than later years (0.90 and 0.82 versus 0.95 and 0.88, for females and males, respectively). Such an impact was not anticipated in the original plan, but overall survival was higher than originally projected. As assumed in the reintroduction program, reproductive success improved significantly with time since release and overall, was higher than expected. The mean number of animals released annually was lower than planned. Overall, the growth of the reintroduced population was slower than projected, but the deviation was close to confidence limits and the pattern similar. After 5 years it appears that the original time frame of 8–10 years for project completion can be met or at worst will cause a 1-year delay. Over the short term of 5 years, projection models in reintroduction programs are useful tools for assessing the sustained use of the breeding core, depicting the dynamics of the population in the wild, providing a relatively accurate time frame for the successful completion of the project, and assessing project success.