中国水土流失经济损失的货币化评价

绿色国民核算体系弥补了现有核算体系不足成为学者们研究的重点,而如何对生态环境进行经济核算是实现绿色国民核算体系的难点.本文通过对我国31个省(市、区)水±流失损失进行经济计量核算,得出以下结论:(1)我国水土流失空间差异显著,呈西强东弱,南强北弱的空间分布格局.(2)水土流失损失最多的五个省份是贵州、四川、云南、陕西、湖北.损失最少的五个省份是新疆、北京、海南、西藏、江苏.(3)我国水土流失损失约占全国GDP的1.45%,东部、中部、西部分别为0.35%、1.5%、4.6%,西部地区水土流失损失大于东部地区.(4)贵州的真实储蓄为负值,处于不可持续发展状态;西藏、云南、青海、甘肃、宁夏等省份真实储蓄虽大于0,但真实储蓄率较低,可持续发展能力低.(5)我国东部和西部的人均真实储蓄比值大于人均GDP,比值,东、西部间的可持续发展能力差距比现实的经济发展差距更大.     

人口变动对干旱区生态环境影响的定量评估模型的应用--以新疆塔里木河流域为例

本文在简单回顾与述评有关定量研究人口在生态环境中作用程度所采用的方法的基础上，认为无论是通常采用的统计学模型或是其他固定函数模型等，都有较大的弊端。而用系统动力学方法来研究这类问题，具有较好的优势与可行性。为此，本文以新疆塔里木河流域为例，建立了该流域人口变动与生态环境退化的系统动力学模型。在对模型进行有效性检验的基础上，演示了该流域近20年来源流段、上中游段和下游段各种不同人口变动条件下下游出现的各种生态环境后果，并与实际的生态环境现状进行对比，从而得出一系列有意义的结论。     

人口出生率对居民储蓄影响的实证研究

本文从人口的出生率的视角切入,利用生命周期理论的模型构建了二元经济结构下居民储蓄模型。并通过对2000—2013年31个省际面板数据运用广义线性模型修正异方差后对出生率的变化对中国家庭储蓄率的影响进行研究,探讨了出生率对中国不同经济发展水平地区的差异化影响。实证发现:出生率带来的对储蓄率的正向作用抵消了其所带来的负向作用,出生率对储蓄率呈正向关系;通过分地区进行进一步分析发现出生率对储蓄率的影响会因地区不同产生差异,但东部和西部地区仍然是显著的正向关系。     

区域联防联控环境治理政策对企业生产规模的影响研究

大气污染明显的区域性特点决定了实施联防联控协同治理的必要性,为破除原有单一主体治理缺陷,2012年中国开始实施联防联控协同治理政策,且已初显治理效果。本文筛选整理沪深A股上市公司2004—2017年数据,在联防联控协同治理政策有效性检验的基础上,考察区域联防联控协同治理政策对企业生产规模的影响,研究发现:①政策有效性检验结果表明,区域联防联控政策降低了工业SO_2排放,促进了试点地区的经济发展,一定程度上实现了经济和环境的双赢。②倾向得分匹配双重差分和三重差分模型检验结果均证明区域联防联控协同治理政策显著扩大了企业生产规模,安慰剂检验结果显示区域联防联控协同治理政策对企业生产规模的扩张效应不太可能由地级市-行业-年份层面不可观测因素驱动。③异质性检验结果表明,不同所有制、不同大小以及不同行业属性的企业对联防联控政策的冲击存在明显的差异。基于以上研究结论,本文认为,虽然联防联控政策突破了行政界线,但是要考虑环境污染治理的协同收益(成本),应按照贡献量等原则共同但有区别的合理分配,合理引导企业参与大气污染防治工作,不断开发绿色资源。此外,联防联控治理政策还要考虑不同行业在发展过程中的资源配置问题,优化各要素资源在不同行业间的合理流动。     

环境规制相对力度变化对FDI的影响分析

本文利用1995-2007年间41个投资来源国和地区的数据,把41个投资来源国和地区分为25个发达国家与16个发展中国家(地区)两类,重点研究中国环境规制相对力度的变化对FDI的影响,并考察了借贷成本、双边贸易关系、经济发展水平的相似性等影响因素,运用面板数据进行中国环境规制相对力度的变化对FDI的影响的实证检验,为中国选择FDI的类型提供理论依据.本文的研究结论表明;中国——相对于投资来源国——环境规制相对力度越严格,来自发展中国家(地区)的FDI将减少;而来自发达国家的FDI并不受影响.产生这一结果的原因在于,不同外商直接投资来源国企业环保技术水平的差异导致其对环境规制的敏感程度不同.在上述结论的基础上,论文对中国选择FDI的类型从外资的来源结构、产业结构、环境技术三个方面提出了相应的政策建议.     

山东省工业总产值与能源消耗量的协整关系

为考察山东省工业经济发展与能源消耗之间的定量关系,本文基于协整分析和误差修正模型,实证研究了山东省工业总产值与能源消费的动态关系.选取1990-2008年山东省工业总产值和能源消耗的相关数据,通过对时序变量的协整检验、误差修正分析及Granger因果关系检验,对工业总产值和能源消耗量在时序维度的关系进行实证分析.研究得出山东省工业总产值与终端能源消耗量及原煤消耗量之间存在协整关系,工业总产值与终端能源消耗量为双向Granger因果关系,工业总产值是原煤消耗量的单向Granger原因,误差修正模型则显示了具有协整关系的时序变量长期均衡误差对其短期波动的修正.结果表明山东省工业经济发展仍然是以大量消耗能源为基础,而原煤在能源结构中又占主导地位,优化能源结构是山东省工业经济发展的方向.     

中国工业环境生产效率及环境保护税开征的研究

实证估计环境生产效率是近年来有关中国经济与环境协调发展的重要研究分支之一。本文基于面板数据固定效应随机前沿模型实证检验了2005—2015年中国大陆除西藏以外的30个省市或自治区的工业环境生产效率,并在此基础上进一步分析了有关环境保护税开征的若干问题。不同于已有文献,本文的实证研究充分利用了面板数据的特征,将不随时间变化的地区异质性与随时间变化的地区生产效率相分离,进而得到理论上更为合理的各地区工业环境生产效率的估计值。另外,本文还从理论征收额与实际征收额的角度构建了排污费征收强度指标,以替代已有相关文献常用的排污收费金额作为排污收费制度的代理变量,进一步实证检验了该制度的有效性。相关实证结果表明:(1)虽然同样是基于参数化的面板数据随机前沿模型,但是否将不随时间变化的地区异质性与随时间变化的地区环境生产效率相分离,所得到的效率估计值存在着显著差异,由此也进一步表明了在面板数据中考虑地区异质性的必要性;(2)基于面板数据固定效应随机前沿模型的效率估计可知,整体工业经济的平均环境生产效率已由2005年的0.488 8上升至2015年的0.780 9,且东部及个别中西部地区的工业发展具有较高的环境生产效率;(3)模型及代理变量选取的差异都会影响对中国排污收费制度有效性的实证评估结论,排污收费制度能否有效地改进工业环境生产效率的实证结果并不稳健;(4)若考虑地区异质性且以排污费征收强度作为排污收费制度的代理变量,则实证结果显示排污收费制度并不能有效地改善工业环境生产效率;(5)综合各地区的生态承载压力及工业环境生产效率,中国东、中、西部地区可被重新划分为高排放高效率、高排放低效率、低排放低效率以及低排放高效率四大区域。     

互联网信息资源的个性化搜索研究

本文根据未来搜索引擎个性化发展方向,提出和检验了具有个性化特色的搜索引擎算法设计。通过向量空间模型(VSM)设计个性化互联网信息资源搜索引擎,建立了用户兴趣模型对词条的相似度进行精确化处理,得出了关键词相关性排序算法。最后,使用关键词数据进行了基础模型检验,说明VSM法达到较高水准,在此基础上完善了本文搜索理论。运用向量空间模型(VSM)进行个性化搜索引擎设计,搜索算法特色鲜明,搜索结果更符合用户的兴趣需求,具有一定的创新性。     

湖南省经济增长的资源环境代价评估

应用“含资源与环境项目的社会会计矩阵”（SAMRE）方法及其数学模型计算湖南省1991～1999年资源净产值、环境净产值和真实储蓄值。结果显示,湖南省资源净产值与环境净产值每年损失幅度为4.00亿～99.01亿元,占全省每年GDP比重的0.48％～3.18％,平均占2.35％。真实国民储蓄比传统国民经济核算体系的净储蓄减少10.41亿～109.60亿元,占全省每年GDP比重的1.25％～3.52％,平均占2.84％。分析表明自然资源损失与环境污染已成为湖南省经济总量增长的沉重代价,其发展呈弱可持续性特征。分析结果还同时显示,近年来资源与环境净产值损失占全省GDP的比重总体呈下降趋势,真实储蓄比重逐渐上升。     

TRMM和GPM卫星降水数据在中国三大流域的降尺度对比研究

以中国三大流域为研究区域,分别针对TRMM 3B43和GPM IMERG降水数据,构建基于归一化植被指数(NDVI)和数字高程模型(DEM)数据的地理加权回归(GWR)模型,以2014年夏季(6～8月)数据为例,得到了三大流域1 km分辨率的降尺度降水数据,并进一步通过气象站点数据对降尺度结果进行验证.研究表明:(1) GPM原始数据整体精度优于TRMM数据,两种数据在黄河流域的精度评价指标优于长江流域与珠江流域;(2)经降尺度计算,两种数据空间分辨率得到了显著提高,且表现出更多降水变化的细节与趋势,但精度指标对原始数据依赖性大,导致提升并不显著;(3)当联合使用NDVI及DEM作为GWR降尺度模型的辅助变量时,两种降尺度结果的差异值在长江流域与珠江流域的高海拔地区中更为显著;(4)黄河流域中,使用不同辅助变量下的降尺度结果在空间分布上总体相似.TRMM数据使用地形作为单独辅助变量的降尺度结果最佳,而GPM数据不同辅助变量下降尺度结果差异并不明显.     

On shadow prices for the measurement of sustainability

The objective of this research is to discuss the direction of the bias of the existing estimates of genuine savings (also known as adjusted net savings). Such estimates rely on observed prices and quantities of investment and natural resource extraction. This has two consequences: first, it causes an overestimation of the shadow price of productive natural resources; second, it leads to omitting the depreciation of environmental services and amenities. We use simple numerical models to determine the path of optimal development under different assumptions. We find that the existing estimates of genuine savings are likely to be biased upward for countries with high levels of pollution, and biased downward for natural resource extracting countries.     

A study on forecasting paths of genuine savings and wealth without and with carbon dioxide constraints: development of shadow price functions

This paper has developed a method for forecasting the future paths of genuine savings (GS) with and without carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions constraints. GS calculations require shadow prices, which can be endogenously determined for variables and constraints in a model. However, in case of a ‘business as usual’ model (BAU), the shadow prices required for calculating GS without constraints show theoretically zero. This research derives the shadow prices required to measure GS for the BAU case as a function of several variables available in the optimal (economically efficient) case. This function is estimated from endogenously obtained variables from a model with environmental constraints. Subsequently, this function is used to calculate shadow prices with and without CO₂ constraints, which are further employed to compute future paths of GS according to two methods applied in the papers by Arrow et al. We successfully estimated GS (or GSnt; GS with changes in population and technology) under the BAU case, however, suggest that GS (or GSnt) measures depend, to a great extent, on the time span under consideration (truncation year) for wealth accounting and the accounting methods by Arrows’ papers used for its estimation. In some cases, especially according to the methodology used by Arrow’s paper in 2004 using adjusted consumption in wealth accounting, the sign of GS (or GSnt) changes from negative to positive when changes in total factor productivity are taken into consideration. These aspects should be explored before measuring (un)sustainability of a particular path based on the GS (or GSnt) indicator.     

Improving the thermal performance of single-glazed windows using translucent granular aerogel

Cost-effective materials, products and installation methods are required to improve the energy efficiency of the UK's existing building stock. The aim of this paper is to assess the potential for high-performance translucent granular aerogel insulation to be retrofitted over single glazing to reduce heat loss without blocking out all of the useful natural light. In situ testing of a 10-mm-thick prototype panel, consisting of a clear twin-wall polycarbonate sheet filled with granular aerogel, was carried out and validated with steady-state calculations. Results demonstrate that an 80% reduction in heat loss can be achieved without detrimental reductions in light transmission. Payback calculations accounting for the inevitable thermal bridging from openable solutions such as roller shutters or pop-in secondary glazing suggest that a return on investment between 3.5 and 9.5 years is possible if products are consistently used over the heating season. Granular aerogel is a promising material for improving the thermal performance of existing windows. Future research will seek to map out different ways in which the material can be applied to the existing UK housing stock, identifying which systems offer the greatest potential for widespread CO₂ savings over their life cycle.     

中国城市环境可持续发展指标体系研究的进展

本文介绍了可持续发展指标体系研究的重要性、国内外研究的进展、存在的困难以及本研究所采用的“真实储畜”的特点;分析了真实储畜的理论基础和计算方法,提出了指标体系框架;讨论了真实储畜在三明市和烟台市的应用实例;结论认为,真实储畜能在纵向和横向上进行比较,可以作为衡量国家和城市环境可持续发展程度的系统化指标。     

土地集约利用空间分异研究中指标标准化方法研究

土地集约利用空间分异研究中指标标准化通常采用极差标准化等方法,这类方法默认各区域集约临界值相同,从而使得评价中区位好的区域土地集约水平高于区位差的区域。基于级差地租Ⅰ和级差地租Ⅱ理论提出新的指标标准化方法,指出传统指标标准化方法的问题,并以重庆市耕地集约利用空间分异为例进行实证比较。研究充分考虑了不同区域因禀赋差异造成的单项指标理想值(临界值)的差异,弥补了传统指标标准化方法的不足,有助于完善土地集约利用空间分异的研究。研究表明:土地利用集约度是一个相对概念,其参照物为区域土地集约临界点,理论基础是级差地租Ⅱ;区位不同导致区域间土地利用强度存在差异,它是级差地租Ⅰ的一类现象,这类差异可称为"禀赋差异";每个区位点适度指标标准化值Y与该区位指标现状值x₁₁和集约临界点x₁有关,与其他区位指标现状值无关;传统标准化方法将指标现状值或现状平均值设为集约临界值,没有考虑不同区位集约临界点差异,因而空间分异结果更符合土地收益空间分异规律;重庆市耕地集约利用度空间分异研究表明该方法在空间分异、集约度绝对值和区县集约度比较等方面优于传统方法,更符合不同区县耕地利用实际。     

土地利用结构优化研究综述

从系统分析的观点出发总结了目前土地利用结构优化模型,包括模型的发展回顾、建模方法和建模的步骤等。土地利用结构优化以建模理论进行划分,可分为：基于适宜性评价理论的优化模型、基于景观生态学理论的优化模型和基于复杂适应系统理论的优化模型;以建模的方法划分,可分为：线性模型和非线性模型。通过优化模型建立的方法对线性规划模型、多目标规划模型、灰色线性规划模型和系统动力学模型进行归纳。在此基础上概括出基于GIS的土地利用结构优化的两种模型：以数量优化和适宜性评价为核心的空间配置优化模型和以元胞自动机模拟演化为核心的优化模型,归纳出空间优化配置模型的建模步骤：预处理、数量优化、空间优化、评价结果4个步骤;元胞自动机演化模型的建模步骤：系统定义、系统抽象、模型实现、方法验证、模型校正和应用6个步骤,并针对模型的优缺点进行评价。指出作为土地资源可持续利用的有效手段,以元胞自动机模型为核心的多模型耦合和系统集成的土地利用优化模式将会是今后土地利用结构优化的发展趋势。     

Impact of Growing Income Inequality on Sustainable Development in China： A Provincial-level Analysis

A growing body of literature has documented the rapidly increasing income disparities that accompanied China＇s economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s, and the driving factors behind this. Growing income inequality in its turn may have important implications for the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, and natural capital and as a consequence for sustainable economic development. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential impact of income inequality on savings, human resources and the environment in China. It starts with an overview of the different causal mechanisms through which income inequality may affect the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, and natural capital, and discusses to what extent these causal relationships may be relevant in the case of China. Next, provincial data for the year 2002 are used to explore the relationship between income inequality and different elements of sustainable development in China. It is found that income inequality does not affect aggregate savings levels. Rising inequality, however, contributes to lower health and possibly also to higher fertility levels. It also lowers the use of chemical fertilizers in agriculture and therefore is likely to reduce water pollution. Other types of environmental degradation are not affected.     

Spatial assessment for groundwater quality based on GIS and improved fuzzy comprehensive assessment with entropy weights

The objective of the research is to evaluate spatial groundwater quality based on improved fuzzy comprehensive assessment model with entropy weights(FCAEW)in geographical information system(GIS)environment.This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of groundwater and sets up an evaluation model applying GIS and FCAEW.Groundwater samples were collected and analyzed from 29 wells in Zhenping County,China.Six parameters were chosen including chloride,sulfate,total hardness,nitrate,fluoride and color.Better spatial interpolation methods for evaluated parameters are found out and selected according to the minimum cross-validation errors from the interpolation methods.FCAEW model was carried out with the help of GIS which makes the evaluating process simpler and easier and more automatically,effectively,efficiently and intelligently.The result embodies the feasibility and effectiveness of FCAEW in GIS when compared with other comprehensive evaluation methods.     

Recalculating GHG emissions saving of palm oil biodiesel

In 2010, the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) came into force in the EU and establishes a framework for achieving legally binding greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. Only sustainable biofuels can be counted towards Member State targets. The aim of this paper is to calculate realistic and transparent scenario-based CO₂-emission values for the GHG emissions savings of palm oil fuel compared with fossil fuel. Using the calculation scheme proposed by the RED, we derive a more realistic overall GHG emissions saving value for palm oil diesel by using current input and output data of biofuel production (e.g. in South-East Asia). We calculate different scenarios in which reliable data on the production conditions (and the regarding emission values during the production chain) of palm oil diesel are used. Our results indicate values for the GHG emissions savings potential of palm oil biodiesel not only above the 19 % default and 36 % typical value published in RED but also above the 35 % sustainable threshold. Our findings conclude the more accurate GHG emissions saving value for palm oil feedstock for electricity generation to be 52 %, and for transportation biodiesel between 38.5 and 41 %, depending on the fossil fuel comparator. Our results confirm the findings by other studies and challenge the official typical and default values published in RED. As a result, the reliability of the Directive to support the EU’s low-carbon ambitions is being undermined, exposing the EU and commission to charges of trade discrimination and limiting the ability of Member States to achieve their legally binding GHG emission reductions.