Managing volunteers: FEMA's Urban Search and Rescue programme and interactions with unaffiliated responders in disaster response

In the aftermath of disasters it is not uncommon for a large number of individuals, ranging from professional technical responders to untrained, albeit well meaning, volunteers, to converge on site of a disaster in order to offer to help victims or other responders. Because volunteers can be both a help and a hindrance in disaster response, they pose a paradox to professional responders at the scene. Through focus group interviews and in-depth structured interviews, this paper presents an extended example of how Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) task forces, a type of professional technical-responder organisation, interact with and utilise volunteers. Findings show that US&R task forces evaluate the volunteers in terms of their presumed legitimacy, utility, and potential liability or danger posed during the disaster response. Other responses to volunteers such as a feeling of powerlessness or the use of volunteers in non-technical ways are also explored. This paper demonstrates some key aspects of the relationship between volunteers and formal response organisations in disasters.     

地震灾区救援力量优化调配模型

从救援对象的确定、救援队伍的需求和救援力量的调配三个方面,较为全面的讨论了地震灾区如何根据灾害情况和救援资源的分布,科学合理地开展救援力量的优化调配,以达到快速营救受困人员的目的。根据受灾情况确定对救援队伍的实际需求是分配救援力量的前提,从对象的确定和需求经验关系的给出两方面,讨论了如何根据地震破坏和灾区实际情况确定灾区对救灾力量,尤其是专业救援队伍的具体需求。队伍的优化调配是运筹学中运输问题的求解,基于现有线性优化算法,在地理信息平台上,建立了队伍优化分配的模型和软件。采用汶川地震的实际数据进行了实例计算和分析,给出了今后在救灾过程中科学调配救援力量的可参考样本。     

The 9/21 earthquake in Taiwan: a local government disaster rescue system1

This paper employs a three‐element model to examine how the disaster rescue system of the government of Nantou County in Middle Taiwan functioned following the earthquake of 21 September 1999. The three elements are information gathering, local government mobilisation, and inter‐organisational cooperation. The paper finds that the Nantou County government needs to address many problems associated with these three elements. Disaster information, for example, was not processed instantly because of the destruction of the electricity and telephone systems in the earthquake. Insufficient information caused ineffectiveness in the realms of mobilisation and inter‐organisational cooperation. As for mobilisation, while the Nantou County magistrate successfully used specific information to encourage flows of huge resources in the county, he did not successfully mobilise human resources there. With regard to inter‐organisational cooperation, myriad voluntary actors and international rescue teams travelled to Nantou County, but the fire and police services experienced cooperation and coordination problems.     

基于仿真原理的地震应急志愿者规模研究

中国是个地震多发但应对能力不强的国家,汶川地震再次暴露了中国专业地震应急救援力量不足的弊端。我们应该借鉴发达国家的经验,构建应急志愿者队伍,以提高我国的地震应急能力。根据仿真原理结合人力资源规模的确定方法,设计了地震应急救援系统仿真模型,并利用该模型计算了高校志愿者队伍的人数。该研究不但有助于丰富志愿者管理理论,同时能有效利用社会资源,提升我国地震应急救援能力,因此具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

从汶川大地震看减灾国际合作

汶川大地震给中国造成了严重的损失,也再一次提醒国内外的决策者和研究人员必须注重发挥科学技术和国际合作在灾害防治和抗灾救助中的巨大作用。从当前国际减灾救援所面临的挑战出发,通过总结中国减灾国际合作的发展过程、发展现状以及在这次汶川大地震中减灾国际合作所发挥的作用,论述了在中国加强国际减灾合作的必要性及下一步的工作重点,以期为灾区的恢复重建和科学总结抗震救灾经验提供参考。     

关于地震救援演练理念与模式的一点思考

在深入总结我国目前地震应急救援演练的基础上,对比了国外地震救援演练的设计思路和经验,试图探讨一套适合我国国情并能很好地与国际接轨的地震救援演练设计的理念和模式,并详细描述了演练实施的总体框架、思路、内容及步骤等.     

1999年土耳其伊兹米特地震

简要介绍了 1 999年土耳其伊兹米特地震的有关情况 ,包括 :震中附近地区的经济地位、构造背景、地震活动背景、震前地震预报研究国际合作情况 ;这次地震造成的地震灾害、破坏特征和灾害严重的主要原因以及土耳其对地震灾害的法制管理工作等     

破坏性地震事件前后的紧急事务处理和震后紧急救援

根据我国目前的地震应急现状,提出了破坏性地震事件前后的紧急事务处理和震后紧急救援的有关问题以及二者之间的关系,论述了国际救援在大城市发生特大破坏性地震中的作用.     

关于地震预报战略思想的几点思考

在国内外地震学界,围绕要不要公开进行地震预报,能不能承担社会性地震预报的重任,长期争论不休。其内在的原因是地震灾害的影响,地震科研的特点,特别是现阶段地震预报水平过低。在地震预报难度甚大,而实际工作中又不能放弃的形势下,应采取适当的地震预报战略。正确评价、正面宣传地震预报水平,以综合减灾措施支持地震预报,严格把好社会性短临预报关口,掌握好内部预测意见向社会发布的过渡是十分重要的。     

华北几次大震前弱震分布参数R(t)的异常变化

本文详细研究了1974年以来华北地区9次Ms≥5.0级大震前,小震时空分布参数R(t)的变化特征.结果表明:华北地区9次Ms≥5.0级大震前小震时空分布参数R(t)值均出现了先上升,然后下降直至主震发生的异常图象。根据R(t)值异常可能对未来发生的大震作出一定程度的预报.文中对R(t)值异常变化的机制进行了初步讨论.     

资本资产定价模型在工程地震保险费率厘定中的应用

作为国际金融市场的重要组成部分,保险市场在当下的全球经济复苏中发挥着重要作用。保险是地震灾害危机处理的一种重要方式。现有的工程地震保费厘定通常只着力于纯保费,对风险附加费的考量往往依经验,从而导致保费中无法体现对风险的补偿,成为工程地震险发展的瓶颈。本文通过将金融市场中的资本资产定价模型(CAPM)引入工程地震险的定价分析,从资本市场的角度探讨该模型在工程地震险定价中的应用,弥补了传统工程地震险保费厘定方法的固有缺陷,使得保费计算更为科学合理。最后,应用于一具体工程实例,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性。     

The international humanitarian system and the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunamis

The December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunamis were an exceptional event. So too was the scale of the response, particularly the level of international funding. Unprecedented donations meant that for once, an international emergency response was largely free of financial constraints. This removal of the funding constraint facilitated observation of the capacity and quality of international disaster aid. The Tsunami Evaluation Coalition conducted five independent thematic assessments in 2005-an impact study was planned, but never implemented. The five evaluations were supported by 44 sub-studies. Based on this work, this paper compares international disaster response objectives, principles and standards with actual performance. It reaches conclusions on four salient aspects: funding; capacity and quality; recovery; and ownership. It ends by proposing a fundamental reorientation of international disaster response approaches that would root them in concepts of sustainable disaster risk reduction and recovery, based on local and national ownership of these processes.     

论灾区开放政策

本文论述了在我国实行灾区开放政策的重要意义,并以我国唐山、澜沧-耿马地震、原苏联亚美尼亚地震的震后救灾活动为例,以实行不同对外开放政策的效果对比,说明实行灾区开放政策的必要性;用通讯调查的结果和国际救灾组织及主要援助国对外救援情况,反映实行灾区开放政策的可行性。最后,提出灾情开放、救灾开放、灾害的考察研究开放和灾区重建开放的四项灾区开放政策的建议。     

地震学综合定量预报方法在华东地区的应用研究

根据周翠英等提出的ZSIP计算方法 ,对华东地区地震比较集中的南黄海地区进行以 3°×3°范围的时间扫描 ,结果表明该方法在重点监视区南黄海预报效能较好 ,预报效能评分R =0 .397,通过R值检验。     

The academic medical centre and nongovernmental organisation partnership following a natural disaster

The global response to the 12 January 2010 earthquake in Haiti revealed the ability to mobilise medical teams quickly and effectively when academic medical centres partner non-governmental organisations (NGO) that already have a presence in a zone of devastation. Most established NGOs based in a certain region are accustomed to managing the medical conditions that are common to that area and will need additional and specialised support to treat the flux of myriad injured persons. Furthermore, an NGO with an established presence in a region prior to a disaster appears better positioned to provide sustained recovery and rehabilitation relief. Academic medical centres can supply these essential specialised resources for a prolonged time. This relationship between NGOs and academic medical centres should be further developed prior to another disaster response. This model has great potential with regard to the rapid preparation and worldwide deployment of skilled medical and surgical teams when needed following a disaster, as well as to the subsequent critical recovery phase.     

一种基于最短路径的地震救援力量部署模型

针对地震救援这一非常态社会活动,在灾情信息上报及时且全面的前提下,对现有救援力量尤其是善于应对困难情况的各支专业救援队进行部署,以达到救援力量的有效利用,尤其是在讲究效率的黄金72 h中显得格外重要。在各救援点优先等级研究的基础上,建立合理的数学模型,利用图论的路径分析功能在地图上实现救援力量的合理部署。     

国际地震救援行动中的医疗力量配置分析

强烈地震在造成大量建筑物倒塌的同时也造成了大量的人员伤亡,如何快速有效抢救埋压在废墟下的幸存者,如何快速救治因建筑物倒塌的压伤人员,如何有效防止灾后的疾病肆虐,在简要分析了几次国际地震救援行动的医疗力量配置情况之后认为,合理配置的医疗力量和快速的医疗救助行动将可以极大程度地抢救垂危的伤员。     

上海及邻近地区地震烈度衰减规律研究

上海市是国际性大都市,确定合理的抗震设防标准,对于城市防震减灾、经济建设和社会可持续发展具有重要意义。地震动衰减关系是地震区划和重大工程场地地震安全性评价的重要内容。在已有的上海及邻近地区地震烈度衰减关系中,统计结果所依据的烈度资料包括历史地震资料,而历史地震资料因震中位置精度不高原则上不宜作为地震烈度衰减关系的统计资料。在借用法工作中,地震动衰减关系所用的距离参数一般采用实际距离,与烈度等震线距离的含义有所不同。基于上述原因,本文仅选用了有近代仪器测定震级的地震,并对等震线的距离参数进行了修正,利用联合衰减统计方法,统计得到上海及邻近地区地震烈度衰减关系。 与以往的类似工作不同之处是:(1)仅选用了有近代仪器测定震级的地震,这样统计结果比较可靠。(2)对距离参数进行了修正,使地震动衰减和烈度衰减关系中的距离参数的定义尽可能保持一致。     

Disaster management and mitigation: the telecommunications infrastructure

Among the most typical consequences of disasters is the near or complete collapse of terrestrial telecommunications infrastructures (especially the distribution network–the 'last mile') and their concomitant unavailability to the rescuers and the higher echelons of mitigation teams. Even when such damage does not take place, the communications overload/congestion resulting from significantly elevated traffic generated by affected residents can be highly disturbing. The paper proposes innovative remedies to the telecommunications difficulties in disaster struck regions. The offered solutions are network-centric operations-cap able, and can be employed in management of disasters of any magnitude (local to national or international). Their implementation provide ground rescue teams (such as law enforcement, firemen, healthcare personnel, civilian authorities) with tactical connectivity among themselves, and, through the Next Generation Network backbone, ensure the essential bidirectional free flow of information and distribution of Actionable Knowledge among ground units, command/control centres, and civilian and military agencies participating in the rescue effort.     

地震预报研究的发展展望

对40年来地震科学家就地震预报工作所做出的努力进行了回顾总结;对国际间在地震预报方面下一步的工作做了介绍;同时,对我国今后的地震预报发展战略提出了自己的看法。认为我国地震预报的发展应认真考虑以下3个问题:(1)基础理论研究与地震预报实践紧密结合的问题;(2)地震预报观测技术在地震预报工作中的角色定位问题;(3)“地震预报实验场”在地震预报实践中的作用问题。