Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa

The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.     

Dynamics of shallow-water populations of Octopus dofleini

Octopus dofleini (Walker) is a common inhabitant of shallow subtidal communities in the Northeast Pacific. The abundances of octopuses at two sites monitored since 1977 have fluctuated greatly during this period. The populations reached high abundances in mid-summer and, during some years, mid-winter. The highest abundances at the two sites did not coincide. There was a constant influx of new octopuses into both study sites, with the greatest immigration occurring in early summer. The octopuses captured spanned a wide range of weights every month, with no clear size classes or seasonal trends in size. The weights of newly-captured octopuses, however, did differ between the sexes and seasons: males weighed more on the average than females, and male weight decreased from winter to fall while female weights did not change O. dofleini appeared to recruit throughout the year; the smallest octopuses occurred between May and November and the greatest number of small octopuses was found in July and August in most years. Females predominated at both study sites throughout the year. However, males predominated among octopuses caught in traps at nearby locations, suggesting that the skewed sex ratios were due to behavioral differences between the sexes.     

Dynamics of free-living nitrogen-fixing bacterial populations in antagonistic conditions

The survival of free-living nitrogen-fixing microbial populations in the natural ecosystem is crucial for the system maintenance and productivity due to the unique role of these organisms in the global biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen.The dynamics of a nitrogen-fixing microbial population grown at various conditions in a chemostat, together with a competitive (for the common resources) population, was studied through bifurcation analysis of a mathematical model of the system. When the carbon source is found in abundance in the feed, then the competition for this nutrient is low. High amounts of ammonium nitrogen (a substance that inhibits growth of the nitrogen-fixing population) are assimilated for the growth needs of both populations. Under these conditions the nitrogen-fixing population can survive (alone or together with its competitor) in a wide range of parameter values and operating conditions and in some cases nitrogenase synthesis occurs.When the inflow medium contains low carbon substrate concentrations, high competition occurs for this nutrient. In these conditions the nitrogen-fixing population can survive only if it has the competitive advantage over its competitor. However, if the inflow medium contains high ammonium concentrations, the nitrogen-fixing population is inhibited and loses its competitive advantage. Under these conditions, only nitrogen-fixing populations, which are able to establish amensalistic interactions can survive in the system.     

Globalization of human infectious disease

Globalization has facilitated the spread of numerous infectious agents to all corners of the planet. Analysis of the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON) database quantitatively illustrates that the globalization of human infectious agents depends significantly on the range of hosts used. Infectious agents specific to humans are broadly and uniformly distributed, whereas zoonotic infectious agents are far more localized in their geographical distribution. Moreover, these patterns vary depending on transmission mode and infectious agent taxonomy. This dichotomy is unlikely to persist if certain aspects of globalization (for example, exotic species introductions) continue unabated. This raises a serious concern for public health and leaves nations with the task of determining the infectious agents that have the greatest potential to establish within their borders. At the advent of a century characterized by an apparent increase in emerging infectious diseases, these results have critical implications for public-health policy and future research pathways of infectious disease ecology.     

Optimal management of non-Markovian biological populations

Wildlife populations typically are described by Markovian models, with population dynamics influenced at each point in time by current but not previous population levels. Considerable work has been done on identifying optimal management strategies under the Markovian assumption. In this paper we generalize this work to non-Markovian systems, for which population responses to management are influenced by lagged as well as current status and/or controls. We use the maximum principle of optimal control theory to derive conditions for the optimal management such a system, and illustrate the effects of lags on the structure of optimal habitat strategies for a predator–prey system.     

The optimal harvest and management in the models of animal populations

We extended zero-cost optimization model for population of domestic animals. Also the model of hiring of labor in cattle-breeding farm is constructed and investigated.     

Dynamics of prion disease transmission in mule deer.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a contagious prion disease of the deer family, has the potential to severely harm deer populations and disrupt ecosystems where deer occur in abundance. Consequently, understanding the dynamics of this emerging infectious disease, and particularly the dynamics of its transmission, has emerged as an important challenge for contemporary ecologists and wildlife managers. Although CWD is contagious among deer, the relative importance of pathways for its transmission remains unclear. We developed seven competing models, and then used data from two CWD outbreaks in captive mule deer and model selection to compare them. We found that models portraying indirect transmission through the environment had 3.8 times more support in the data than models representing transmission by direct contact between infected and susceptible deer. Model-averaged estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) were 1.3 or greater, indicating likely local persistence of CWD in natural populations under conditions resembling those we studied. Our findings demonstrate the apparent importance of indirect, environmental transmission in CWD and the challenges this presents for controlling the disease.     

Selective consumption and facilitation by mesograzers in adult and colonizing macroalgal assemblages

Grazing pressure on macroalgae in littoral communities may vary with algal species, the age of an algal individual and grazer identity. Previous studies on alga–grazer interactions have shown that grazer preference for an algal species may release another one from interspecific competition. We measured the impacts of four common grazer taxa and the natural grazer guild on macroalgal communities at both their colonization and adult stages, and compared the impacts to grazer exclosures. The grazer effects were stronger on colonizing than on adult macroalgae; grazers did not reduce the total density of adult algae. Grazers both feed on propagules and indirectly facilitate other algae, depending on the grazer or algal species. Hydrobia species increased the settlement of spores of the red alga Ceramium tenuicorne. Similarly, the gastropod Theodoxus fluviatilis tended to facilitate one crustose algal species, but decreased the propagule density of annual filamentous algae, suggesting a preference for one species to the advantage of another. Effects of crustacean mesograzers on the studied macroalgae were weak. These results indicate that northern Baltic macroalgae are limited to grazing mainly during their colonization stage.     

Spatial spread of an emerging infectious disease: conjunctivitis in House Finches

In this paper we quantify the rate of spread of the newly emerged pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum of the House Finch, Carpodacus mexicanus, in its introduced range. We compare and contrast the rapid, yet decelerating, rate of spread of the pathogen with the slower, yet accelerating rate of spread of the introduced host. Comparing the rate of spread of this pathogen to pathogens in terrestrial mammalian hosts, we see that elevation and factors relating to host abundance restrict disease spread, rather than finding any major effects of discrete barriers or anthropogenic movement. We examine the role of seasonality in the rate of spread, finding that the rate and direction of disease spread relates more to seasonality in host movement than to seasonality in disease prevalence. We conclude that asymptomatic carriers are major transmitters of Mycoplasma gallisepticum into novel locations, a finding which may also be true for many other diseases, such as West Nile Virus and avian influenza.     

Sink populations in carnivore management: cougar demography and immigration in a hunted population.

Carnivores are widely hunted for both sport and population control, especially where they conflict with human interests. It is widely believed that sport hunting is effective in reducing carnivore populations and related human-carnivore conflicts, while maintaining viable populations. However, the way in which carnivore populations respond to harvest can vary greatly depending on their social structure, reproductive strategies, and dispersal patterns. For example, hunted cougar (Puma concolor) populations have shown a great degree of resiliency. Although hunting cougars on a broad geographic scale (> 2000 km2) has reduced densities, hunting of smaller areas (i.e., game management units, < 1000 km2), could conceivably fail because of increased immigration from adjacent source areas. We monitored a heavily hunted population from 2001 to 2006 to test for the effects of hunting at a small scale (< 1000 km2) and to gauge whether population control was achieved (lambda < or = 1.0) or if hunting losses were negated by increased immigration allowing the population to remain stable or increase (lambda > or = 1.0). The observed growth rate of 1.00 was significantly higher than our predicted survival/fecundity growth rates (using a Leslie matrix) of 0.89 (deterministic) and 0.84 (stochastic), with the difference representing an 11-16% annual immigration rate. We observed no decline in density of the total population or the adult population, but a significant decrease in the average age of independent males. We found that the male component of the population was increasing (observed male population growth rate, lambda(OM) = 1.09), masking a decrease in the female component (lambda(OF) = 0.91). Our data support the compensatory immigration sink hypothesis; cougar removal in small game management areas (< 1000 km2) increased immigration and recruitment of younger animals from adjacent areas, resulting in little or no reduction in local cougar densities and a shift in population structure toward younger animals. Hunting in high-quality habitats may create an attractive sink, leading to misinterpretation of population trends and masking population declines in the sink and surrounding source areas.     

Dynamics of a chemostat with three competitive hydrogen oxidizing denitrifying microbial populations and their efficiency for denitrification

In this work, competition for two nitrogen resources (nitrate-, nitrite-nitrogen) between three hydrogen oxidizing denitrifying populations (Acidovorax sp. strain Ic3 (X₁), Paracoccus sp. strain Ic1 (X₂), and Acinetobacter sp. strain Ic2 (X₃)) was examined. The dynamics of three systems of microbial populations (system I: X₁ − X₃, system II: X₂ − X₃, and system III: X₁ − X₂ − X₃), grown in a chemostat, was studied using bifurcation analysis. The chemostat is the most common type of biological reactor used for the study of microbial growth under controlled conditions. The effect of the operating parameters (i.e., dilution rate and feed nitrate nitrogen concentration) on the long-term behavior of the systems showed that X₃ was the predominant population for a wide range of combinations of dilution rate and feed nitrate nitrogen concentration. Also, coexistence of two populations (X₂X₃, X₁X₃) was observed. The results of the bifurcation analysis were also used to determine the denitrification rate and the nitrite nitrogen accumulation for each of the three systems as a function of the dilution rate (up to 0.17 h⁻¹) and the feed nitrate nitrogen concentration (up to 300 mg/L). The highest denitrification rate was achieved by system I (28 mg/Lh). A comparison between the three systems showed that the nitrite nitrogen concentration in system I was less than the one in system III, while the two systems gave similar denitrification rates. The second system had the greatest accumulation of nitrites with the lowest denitrification rate.     

Emerging infectious disease as a proximate cause of amphibian mass mortality

A newly discovered infectious disease of amphibians, chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is implicated in population declines and possible extinctions throughout the world. The purpose of our study was to examine the effects of B. dendrobatidis on the mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa) in the Sierra Nevada of California (USA). We (1) quantified the prevalence and incidence of B. dendrobatidis through repeat surveys of several hundred R. muscosa populations in the southern Sierra Nevada; (2) described the population-level effects of B. dendrobatidis on R. muscosa population abundance; and (3) compared the mortality rates of infected and uninfected R. muscosa individuals from pre- through post-metamorphosis using both laboratory and field experiments. Mouthpart inspections conducted in 144 and 132 R. muscosa populations in 2003 and 2004, respectively, indicated that 19% of R. muscosa populations in both years showed indications of chytridiomycosis. Sixteen percent of populations that were uninfected in 2003 became infected by 2004. Rana muscosa population sizes were reduced by an average of 88% following B. dendrobatidis outbreaks at six sites, but at seven B. dendrobatidis-negative sites, R. muscosa population sizes increased by an average of 45% over the same time period. In the laboratory, all infected R. muscosa developed fatal chytridiomycosis after metamorphosis, while all uninfected individuals remained healthy. In the field experiment in which R. muscosa tadpoles were caged at infected and uninfected sites, 96% of the individuals that metamorphosed at infected sites died vs. 5% at the uninfected sites. These studies indicate that chytridiomycosis causes high mortality in post-metamorphic R. muscosa, that this emerging disease is the proximate cause of numerous observed R. muscosa population declines, and that the disease threatens this species with extirpation at numerous sites in California's Sierra Nevada.     

A simulation model for the management of vicuña populations

The population dynamics of the vicuña was modelled based on field data from the Central Galeras Sector, Perú. Rains were simulated in order to obtain net primary productivity and grass availability which act upon density-dependent fecundity and mortality. The model produces a population growth curve that tends to stabilize at densities around 100 vicuñas per km². Harvest and shearing processes were simulated as part of the vicuña population management model. Harvest was based upon a fixed threshold density D_e below which no harvest occurs; for densities above D_e harvesting is applied at a rate proportional to the difference between D_e and the current population density (fixed escapement or ‘bang-bang’ harvest rule). Management optimization was analyzed by determining the optimal escapement density D_e, which maximized either net profits or the number of animals harvested. Analyzing the results as cumulative totals over 20 years of simulation, an optimum harvest production was obtained for a D_e of about 40 vicuñas per km², and maximum profit was obtained for a D_e around 70 vicuñas per km². Analyzing the results of 20 years of simulation as annual averages with an original population density of 40 vicuñas per km², the harvest production and profits were maximized for a D_e of 40 and 60 vicuñas per km², respectively.The model was validated using data from the Reserva Nacional San Guillermo, Argentina, where vicuña and guanaco populations coexist (although their interaction was not modelled). The sensitivity analysis was performed with three different techniques: (a) stepwise multiple linear regression, (b) visual graphic analysis based on a polar coordinates system, and (c) direct evaluation of the effect on management decisions. The curve shape parameters of the fecundity and mortality functions proved to be the most important ones in determining the outcome of the model.     

Non-thermal plasmas for disease control and abiotic stress management in plants

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Climate change is predicted to cause severe loss in agricultural production by increasing disease epidemics and intensifying&nbsp;abiotic stresses. Therefore,...     

Reproductive traits of pioneer gastropod species colonizing deep-sea hydrothermal vents after an eruption

The colonization dynamics and life histories of pioneer species determine early succession at nascent hydrothermal vents, and their reproductive ecology may provide insight into their dispersal and population connectivity. Studies on the reproductive traits of two pioneer gastropod species, Ctenopelta porifera and Lepetodrilus tevnianus, began within a year after an eruption on the East Pacific Rise (EPR) that eliminated vent communities near 9°50′N from late 2005/early 2006. Standard histology was used to examine gamete release, instantaneous female fecundity, and time to maturation. Both species exhibited two-component oocyte size–frequency distributions indicating quasi-continuous reproduction with high fecundity. In samples collected in December 2006, both C. porifera and L. tevnianus individuals were reproductively mature. The smallest reproducing C. porifera were 4.2 mm (males) and 5.4 mm (females) in shell length, whereas reproductive L. tevnianus were smaller (2.3 and 2.4 mm in males and females, respectively). Most C. porifera were large (>6.0 mm) compared to their size at metamorphosis and reproductively mature. In contrast, most L. tevnianus were small (<1.0 mm) and immature. Reproductive traits of the two species are consistent with opportunistic colonization, but are also similar to those of other Lepetodrilus species and peltospirids at vents and do not fully explain why these particular species were the dominant pioneers. Their larvae were probably in high supply immediately after the eruption, due to oceanographic transport processes from remote source populations.     

敌草快在甘蔗及土壤中的残留动态

对敌草快在湖南和海南甘蔗及土壤中的残留研究结果表明:(1)敌草快在湖南甘蔗苗和土壤中的半衰期分别为4.72和50.59 d;(2)敌草快在海南甘蔗苗和土壤中的半衰期分别为5.73和40.01 d;(3)在常规使用剂量下,湖南和海南甘蔗中敌草快的最终残留量均未检出,说明正常使用下食用甘蔗安全.     

Representation of tourist interest in the Opal Coast by local populations, English and Belgian Dutch-speaking populations

The purpose of the exploratory study is to describe the perception of the “Opal Coast (North of France)” among French native populations or remaining population for tourist reasons. A discussion (a) based on quantitative and qualitative equivalences and differences on perceiving the characteristics and love of the area according to nationality is proposed (b) confronting the perceptions measured of the national stereotypes is evoked, (c) considering the tourist communication in the area as a self confirmation of the identity of the tourist visiting is outlined.     

Extinction times in experimental populations

Predicting population extinctions is a key element of quantitative conservation biology and population ecology. Although stochastic population theories have long been used to obtain theoretical distributions of population extinction times, model-based predictions have rarely been tested. Here I report results from a quantitative analysis of extinction time in 281 experimental populations of water fleas (Daphnia magna) in variable environments. To my knowledge, this is the first quantitative estimate of the shape of the distribution of population extinction times based on extinction data for any species. The finding that the distribution of population extinction times was extraordinarily peaked is consistent with theoretical predictions for density-independent populations, but inconsistent with predictions for density-dependent populations. The tail of the extinction time distribution was not exponential. These results imply that our current theories of extinction are inadequate. Future work should focus on how demographic stochasticity scales with population size and effects of nonrandom variable environments on population growth and decline.     

Dynamics of Hybridization and Introgression in Red Wolves and Coyotes

Abstract:  Hybridization and introgression are significant causes of endangerment in many taxa and are considered the greatest biological threats to the reintroduced population of red wolves ( Canis rufus ) in North Carolina (U.S.A.). Little is known, however, about these processes in red wolves and coyotes ( C. latrans ). We used individual-based simulations to examine the process of hybridization and introgression between these species. Under the range of circumstances we considered, red wolves in colonizing and established populations were quickly extirpated, persisted near the carrying capacity, or had intermediate outcomes. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the probabilities of quasi extinction and persistence of red wolves near the carrying capacity were most affected by the strength of two reproductive barriers: red wolf challenges and assortative mating between red wolves and coyotes. Because model parameters for these barriers may be difficult to estimate, we also sought to identify other predictors of red wolf population fate. The proportion of pure red wolves in the population was a strong predictor of the future probabilities of red wolf quasi extinction and persistence. Finally, we examined whether sterilization can be effective in minimizing introgression while allowing the reintroduced red wolf population to grow. Our results suggest sterilization can be an effective short-term strategy to reduce the likelihood of extirpation in colonizing populations of red wolves. Whether red wolf numbers are increased by sterilization depends on the level of sterilization effort and the acting reproductive barriers. Our results provide an outline of the conditions likely required for successful reestablishment and long-term maintenance of populations of wild red wolves in the presence of coyotes. Our modeling approach may prove generally useful in providing insight into situations involving complex species interactions when data are few.