Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.     

Cascading effects of long-term land-use changes on plant traits and ecosystem functioning

There is much concern that the functioning of ecosystems will be affected by human-induced changes in biodiversity, of which land-use change is the most important driver. However, changes in biodiversity may be only one of many pathways through which land use alters ecosystem functioning, and its importance relative to other pathways remains unclear. In particular, although biodiversity-ecosystem function research has focused primarily on grasslands, the increases in agricultural inputs (e.g., fertilization, irrigation) and grazing pressure that drive change in grasslands worldwide have been largely ignored. Here we show that long-term (27-year) manipulations of soil resource availability and sheep grazing intensity caused marked, consistent shifts in grassland plant functional composition and diversity, with cascading (i.e., causal chains of) direct, indirect, and interactive effects on multiple ecosystem functions. Resource availability exerted dominant control over above-ground net primary production (ANPP), both directly and indirectly via shifts in plant functional composition. Importantly, the effects of plant functional diversity and grazing intensity on ANPP shifted from negative to positive as agricultural inputs increased, providing strong evidence that soil resource availability modulates the impacts of plant diversity and herbivory on primary production. These changes in turn altered litter decomposition and, ultimately, soil carbon sequestration, highlighting the relevance of ANPP as a key integrator of ecosystem functioning. Our study reveals how human alterations of bottom-up (resources) and top-down (herbivory) forces together interact to control the functioning of grazing systems, the most extensive land use on Earth.     

Using ecosystem-services assessments to determine trade-offs in ecosystem-based management of marine mammals

The goal of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is to support a sustainable and holistic multisectored management approach, and is recognized in a number of international policy frameworks. However, it remains unknown how these goals should be linked to assessments and management plans for marine fauna, such as mammals and fish stocks. It appears particularly challenging to carry out trade-off analyses of various ocean uses without a framework that integrates knowledge of environmental, social, and economic benefits derived from nonstationary marine fauna. We argue this gap can be filled by applying a version of the ecosystem-service approach at the population level of marine fauna. To advance this idea, we used marine mammals as a case study to demonstrate what indicators could operationalize relevant assessments and deliver an evidence base for the presence of ecosystem services and disservices derived from marine mammals. We found indicators covering common ecosystem service categories feasible to apply; examples of indicator data are already available in the literature for several populations. We encourage further exploration of this approach for application to marina fauna and biodiversity management, with the caveat that conceptual tensions related to the use of the ecosystem service concept itself needs to be addressed to ensure acceptance by relevant stakeholders.     

Effects of Urban Development on Ant Communities: Implications for Ecosystem Services and Management

Abstract:  Research that connects the effects of urbanization on biodiversity and ecosystem services is lacking. Ants perform multifarious ecological functions that stabilize ecosystems and contribute to a number of ecosystem services. We studied responses of ant communities to urbanization in the Lake Tahoe basin by sampling sites along a gradient of urban land development. We sampled ant communities, measured vegetation characteristics, quantified human activities, and evaluated ant-community responses by grouping ants into service-providing units (SPUs), defined as a group of organisms and their populations that perform specific ecosystem services, to provide an understanding of urbanization impacts on biodiversity and their delivery of ecosystem services. Species richness and abundance peaked at intermediate levels of urban development, as did the richness of 3 types of ant SPUs (aerators, decomposers, and compilers). With increasing land development aerator and decomposer ants significantly declined in abundance, whereas compiler ants significantly increased in abundance. Competing models demonstrated that precipitation was frequently among the strongest influences on ant community structure; however, urban development and human activities also had a strong, negative influence on ants, appearing in most models with ΔAIC_c < 2 for species richness and abundance patterns of SPUs and generalists. Response diversity was observed within SPUs, which suggests that the corresponding ecosystem services were maintained until development reached 30–40%. Our data provide evidence that ecosystem functions, such as water infiltration and soil productivity, may be diminished at sites subject to greater levels of urbanization and that conserving ant communities and the ecosystem services they provide could be an important target in land-use planning and conservation efforts.     

基于遥感与GIS的黄河三角洲绿色空间生态服务价值评估

基于黄河三角洲1987、1997和2007年的TM遥感影像解译数据和野外调查结果,得到研究区三个年度的土地利用空间分布图。然后从土地利用的角度重新审视绿色空间的概念和内涵,建立基于土地利用类型的绿色空间生态评估体系,分析黄河三角洲地区的绿色空间生态服务价值及其变化情况。研究结果表明,1987—2007年间黄河三角洲地区绿色空间土地利用变化显著,其中,水体面积增加明显,农田、林地面积略有增加,湿地和草地面积显著减少,未利用地面积略有减少。土地利用面积的变化直接影响到其生态服务价值的变化,研究期间湿地生态服务价值减少了77.72亿元,草地减少9.00亿元,未利用地减少0.16亿元;水体的生态服务价值增加54.54亿元,农田和林地共增加3.41亿元。研究区绿色空间生态服务价值呈逐年减少的趋势,20年间研究区生态服务价值减少了28.94亿元。通过对绿色空间单项生态服务价值功能重要性进行评价,研究表明黄河三角洲地区单项生态服务价值以湿地、农田和水体占主要地位,这与各单项生态系统的面积及其单位生态服务价值量有关。     

吴江市土地利用变化及其生态效应

利用1993、2000和2004年吴江市的遥感影像,在GIS和RS支持下,通过构建土地利用转移矩阵对土地利用变化进行分析,并对其产生的生态效应进行研究。结果表明,吴江市的耕地基底向建设用地基底转化,生态系统结构的多样性和均匀度降低,景观整体形状趋于规则;生态系统功能退化,耕地的减少以及建设用地面积的增加是导致总价值减少的主导力量,而水域生态服务价值的增加是阻止其显著减少的原因;水源涵养和废物处理功能贡献度最大,超过总价值的50%;汾湖镇所占生态服务价值比重最高,分别为24.2%、25.21%2、5.13%,桃源镇所占比重最低。     

Land-cover change within and around protected areas in a biodiversity hotspot

The landscape surrounding protected areas influences their ability to maintain ecosystem functions and achieve conservation goals. As anthropogenic intensification continues, it is important to monitor land-use and land-cover change in and around protected areas. We measure land-cover change surrounding protected areas in the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany Biodiversity hotspot from the 1980s to present. Using Landsat imagery, we classified land cover within and around each protected area. Agricultural land uses were increasing and often directly border protected area boundaries. Human settlements increased around every protected area, potentially increasing human activity along the edges of protected areas and threatening their ecological integrity. Urban expansion around protected areas varied but increased as much as 10%. Woody vegetation cover varied both within and around protected areas with possible evidence of deforestation and shrub encroachment throughout the hotspot. We recommend monitoring land cover across southeastern Africa to better understand regional trends in land-use impacts to protected areas.     

Simulating future land use and ecosystem services in Northern Thailand

Enhancing ecosystem services is important as it provides foundation for the wellbeing of people. This paper presents the future land use simulation for enhancing ecosystem services using CLUMondo dynamic spatial model. The land use change was assessed from 1989 to 2013 in Wang Thong watershed of Northern Thailand using GIS and a set of ecosystem services was assessed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Future land uses until 2030 were projected for three policy scenarios, namely business-as-usual, integrated land use development, and enhancing environmental services with different levels of emphasis on ecosystem services. In business-as-usual scenario, it was observed that ecosystem services will decline by 2030 from the base year of 2013, whereas in integrated land use development scenario, the ecosystem services will increase by 5% compared to base year due to anticipated effective protection of remaining forests in all existing and proposed protected areas of the study area. In enhancing environmental services scenario, the ecosystem services will increase by 15%. Such results can serve as useful information in policy formulation in developing land use options, which help enhance ecosystem services in future.     

Land use change around protected areas: management to balance human needs and ecological function.

Protected areas throughout the world are key for conserving biodiversity, and land use is key for providing food, fiber, and other ecosystem services essential for human sustenance. As land use change isolates protected areas from their surrounding landscapes, the challenge is to identify management opportunities that maintain ecological function while minimizing restrictions on human land use. Building on the case studies in this Invited Feature and on ecological principles, we identify opportunities for regional land management that maintain both ecological function in protected areas and human land use options, including preserving crucial habitats and migration corridors, and reducing dependence of local human populations on protected area resources. Identification of appropriate and effective management opportunities depends on clear definitions of: (1) the biodiversity attributes of concern; (2) landscape connections to delineate particular locations with strong ecological interactions between the protected area and its surrounding landscape; and (3) socioeconomic dynamics that determine current and future use of land resources in and around the protected area.     

Evaluating Effects of Habitat Loss and Land-Use Continuity on Ant Species Richness in Seminatural Grassland Remnants

Abstract:  Seminatural grasslands in Europe are susceptible to habitat destruction and fragmentation that result in negative effects on biodiversity because of increased isolation and area effects on extinction rate. However, even small habitat patches of seminatural grasslands might be of value for conservation and restoration of species richness in a landscape with a long history of management, which has been argued to lead to high species richness. We tested whether ant communities have been negatively affected by habitat loss and increased isolation of seminatural grasslands during the twentieth century. We examined species richness and community composition in seminatural grasslands of different size in a mosaic landscape in Central Sweden. Grasslands managed continuously over centuries harbored species-rich and ecologically diverse ant communities. Grassland remnant size had no effect on ant species richness. Small grassland remnants did not harbor a nested subset of the ant species of larger habitats. Community composition of ants was mainly affected by habitat conditions. Our results suggest that the abandonment of traditional land use and the encroachment of trees, rather than the effects of fragmentation, are important for species composition in seminatural grasslands. Our results highlight the importance of considering land-use continuity and dispersal ability of the focal organisms when examining the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity. Landscape history should be considered in conservation programs focusing on effects of land-use change.     

Ecological effects associated with land-use change in China's southwest agricultural landscape

Research on land-use and land-cover change, with associated effects on the ecoenvironment, is a key to understanding global change. The concept of 'ecosystem services' is also a hot issue in ecology and ecological economics. In this study, ecosystem service values are used to assess the ecological values of corresponding land-use types, so as to evaluate the ecological effects of regional land-use change. China's southwest agricultural landscape has unique ecological functions; but it also belongs to an ecologically fragile zone. Consequently, land-use change and associated ecological effects must be monitored to assure sustainable development of this area. Based on TM images in 1988, 1994 and 1999, the landscape classification maps of Yongsheng County were assessed using supervised classification and interactive modification methods. The transition matrix of land-use types and three indices of spatial patterns, patch-level, class-level and landscape-level indices, were calculated using models and GIS to examine the spatial patterns and dynamics of land use in the study area. The results show the influences of human activities and natural environmental elements, and that unused land has decreased rapidly, together with a continuous increase in forest during the past 11 years. There are also frequent intermediate transitions between farmland and unused land. An index for landscape diversity shows a tendency to increase, indicating that the proportions of each landscape element tended to average. Also, the decrease in the fractal dimension of unused land reveals that the effects of human activity are increasing. Ecological value calculations show that land-use change in Yongsheng County from 1988–1999 has resulted in positive ecological effects, with distinct spatial differences.     

祁连山北坡自然恢复杨桦林地植物功能型组成及其影响因素

依据生活型(乔木、藤本、灌木、半灌木、多年生禾草、多年生杂类草和一二年生草本)和水分生态型(旱生、旱中生、中生和湿生)将祁连山北坡次生杨桦林28个调查样地中的81个物种划分为18种植物功能型(Plant functiontypes,PFTs),并通过典范对应分析(CCA)方法研究植物功能型与环境因子间的关系.结果表明:自然恢复杨桦林地植物功能型主要集中在中生多年生杂类草(PFTs16)、湿生多年生杂类草(PFTs23)、旱中生多年生杂类草(PFTs9)和中生灌木(PFTs18)4个植物功能型上;乔、灌、草三层冠层特征和中生植物的大量出现,反映了群落植物生活型趋于复杂化和结构化,生态型逐渐向中生化方向演替的特点;土壤容重、有机碳和全氮含量主要影响植物的生活型分异特征,土壤含水量和林冠郁闭度是植物的水分生态型分异的主要环境因子,而坡位、坡度控制着群落植物总体分布格局的形成.图1表3参31     

Spatial cost–benefit analysis of blue restoration and factors driving net benefits globally

Marine coastal ecosystems, commonly referred to as blue ecosystems, provide valuable services to society but are under increasing threat worldwide due to a variety of drivers, including eutrophication, development, land-use change, land reclamation, and climate change. Ecological restoration is sometimes necessary to facilitate recovery in coastal ecosystems. Blue restoration (i.e., in marine coastal systems) is a developing field, and projects to date have been small scale and expensive, leading to the perception that restoration may not be economically viable. We conducted a global cost–benefit analysis to determine the net benefits of restoring coral reef, mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass ecosystems, where the benefit is defined as the monetary value of ecosystem services. We estimated costs from published restoration case studies and used an adjusted-value-transfer method to assign benefit values to these case studies. Benefit values were estimated as the monetary value provided by ecosystem services of the restored habitats. Benefits outweighed costs (i.e., there were positive net benefits) for restoration of all blue ecosystems. Mean benefit:cost ratios for ecosystem restoration were eight to 10 times higher than prior studies of coral reef and seagrass restoration, most likely due to the more recent lower cost estimates we used. Among ecosystems, saltmarsh had the greatest net benefits followed by mangrove; coral reef and seagrass ecosystems had lower net benefits. In general, restoration in nations with middle incomes had higher (eight times higher in coral reefs and 40 times higher in mangroves) net benefits than those with high incomes. Within an ecosystem type, net benefit varied with restoration technique (coral reef and saltmarsh), ecosystem service produced (mangrove and saltmarsh), and project duration (seagrass). These results challenge the perceptions of the low economic viability of blue restoration and should encourage further targeted investment in this field.     

Identifying 120 years of decline in ecosystem structure and maturity of Great South Bay, New York using the Ecopath modelling approach

Mass balanced models yield valuable information regarding ecological function and delivery of ecosystem services, but often rely on data collected well before many species were reduced to fractions of their original abundance. Lagoonal systems, such as Great South Bay (GSB), NY, sit on the interface of terrestrial and marine ecosystems and are prone to anthropogenic stressors but proximity to land also makes the presence of data regarding historic populations and structure more likely. To quantify over a century of ecosystem change, Ecopath models were developed for GSB at each of four time periods where commercial and scientific data exist: 1880s, 1930s, 1980s and 2000s. The results indicated that the GSB has experienced a decline in ecosystem maturity, loss of top keystone predators, a decline in connectivity to the ocean though the reduction of migratory species and increasing dominance of low trophic level organisms. These changes undermine the delivery of ecosystem services, increase conflicts over limited resources and suggest that present day restoration targets fail to recognize appropriate baselines. We discuss the role of stochastic events, which result in state changes that could be defined as regime shifts, and ecosystem connectivity to the long-term stability of lagoonal systems.     

Industrial development and land use/cover change and their effects on local environment: a case study of Changshu in eastern coastal China

The interactions among industrial development, land use/cover change (LUCC), and environmental effects in Changshu in the eastern coastal China were analyzed using high-resolution Landsat TM data in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2006, socio-economic data and water environmental quality monitoring data from research institutes and governmental departments. Three phases of industrial development in Changshu were examined (i.e., the three periods of 1990 to 1995, 1995 to 2000, and 2000 to 2006). Besides industrial development and rapid urbanization, land use/cover in Changshu had changed drastically from 1990 to 2006. This change was characterized by major replacements of farmland by urban and rural settlements, artificial ponds, forested and constructed land. Industrialization, urbanization, agricultural structure adjustment, and rural housing construction were the major socio-economic driving forces of LUCC in Changshu. In addition, the annual value of ecosystem services in Changshu decreased slightly during 1990–2000, but increased significantly during 2000–2006. Nevertheless, the local environmental quality in Changshu, especially in rural areas, has not yet been improved significantly. Thus, this paper suggests an increased attention to fully realize the role of land supply in adjustment of environment-friendly industrial structure and urban-rural spatial restructuring, and translating the land management and environmental protection policies into an optimized industrial distribution and land-use pattern.     

Effects of rarity form on species’ responses to land use

Anthropogenic land-use change causes substantial changes in local and global biodiversity. Rare and common species can differ in sensitivity to land-use change; rare species are expected to be affected more negatively. Rarity may be defined in terms of geographic range size, population density, or breadth of habitat requirements. How these 3 forms of rarity interact in determining global responses to land use is yet to be assessed. Using global data representing 912 vertebrate species, we tested for differences in responses to land use of species characterized by different types of rarity. Land-use responses were fitted using generalized linear mixed-effects models, allowing responses to vary among groups of species with different forms of rarity. Species considered rare with respect to all 3 forms of rarity showed particularly strong declines in disturbed land uses (>40% of species and 30% of individuals in the most disturbed land uses). In contrast, species common both geographically and numerically and with broad habitat requirements showed strong increases (up to 90% increase in species and 40% in abundance in some land uses). Our results suggest that efforts to understand the vulnerability of species to environmental changes should account for different types of rarity where possible. Our results also have potentially important implications for ecosystem functioning, given that rare species may play unique roles within ecosystems.     

Predicting leaf physiology from simple plant and climate attributes: a global GLOPNET analysis.

Knowledge of leaf chemistry, physiology, and life span is essential for global vegetation modeling, but such data are scarce or lacking for some regions, especially in developing countries. Here we use data from 2021 species at 175 sites around the world from the GLOPNET compilation to show that key physiological traits that are difficult to measure (such as photosynthetic capacity) can be predicted from simple qualitative plant characteristics, climate information, easily measured ("soft") leaf traits, or all of these in combination. The qualitative plant functional type (PFT) attributes examined are phylogeny (angiosperm or gymnosperm), growth form (grass, herb, shrub, or tree), and leaf phenology (deciduous vs. evergreen). These three PFT attributes explain between one-third and two-thirds of the variation in each of five quantitative leaf ecophysiological traits: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf life span, mass-based net photosynthetic capacity (Amass), nitrogen content (N(mass)), and phosphorus content (P(mass)). Alternatively, the combination of four simple, widely available climate metrics (mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean vapor pressure deficit, and solar irradiance) explain only 5-20% of the variation in those same five leaf traits. Adding the climate metrics to the qualitative PFTs as independent factors in the model increases explanatory power by 3-11% for the five traits. If a single easily measured leaf trait (SLA) is also included in the model along with qualitative plant traits and climate metrics, an additional 5-25% of the variation in the other four other leaf traits is explained, with the models accounting for 62%, 65%, 66%, and 73% of global variation in N(mass), P(mass), A(mass), and leaf life span, respectively. Given the wide availability of the summary climate data and qualitative PFT data used in these analyses, they could be used to explain roughly half of global variation in the less accessible leaf traits (A(mass), leaf life span, N(mass), P(mass)); this can be augmented to two-thirds of all variation if climatic and PFT data are used in combination with the readily measured trait SLA. This shows encouraging possibilities of progress in developing general predictive equations for macro-ecology, global scaling, and global modeling.     

A Revealed Preference Approach to Estimating Supply Curves for Ecosystem Services: Use of Auctions to Set Payments for Soil Erosion Control in Indonesia

Abstract:  To supply ecosystem services, private landholders incur costs. Knowledge of these costs is critical for the design of conservation-payment programs. Estimating these costs accurately is difficult because the minimum acceptable payment to a potential supplier is private information. We describe how an auction of payment contracts can be designed to elicit this information during the design phase of a conservation-payment program. With an estimate of the ecosystem-service supply curve from a pilot auction, conservation planners can explore the financial, ecological, and socioeconomic consequences of alternative scaled-up programs. We demonstrate the potential of our approach in Indonesia, where soil erosion on coffee farms generates downstream ecological and economic costs. Bid data from a small-scale, uniform-price auction for soil-conservation contracts allowed estimates of the costs of a scaled-up program, the gain from integrating biophysical and economic data to target contracts, and the trade-offs between poverty alleviation and supply of ecosystem services. Our study illustrates an auction-based approach to revealing private information about the costs of supplying ecosystem services. Such information can improve the design of programs devised to protect and enhance ecosystem services.     

Estimating the Value of Non‐Use Benefits from Small Changes in the Provision of Ecosystem Services

Abstract: The unit of trade in ecosystem services is usually the use of a proportion of the parcels of land associated with a given service. Valuing small changes in the provision of an ecosystem service presents obstacles, particularly when the service provides non‐use benefits, as is the case with conservation of most plants and animals. Quantifying non‐use values requires stated‐preference valuations. Stated‐preference valuations can provide estimates of the public's willingness to pay for a broad conservation goal. Nevertheless, stated‐preference valuations can be expensive and do not produce consistent measures for varying levels of provision of a service. Additionally, the unit of trade, land use, is not always linearly related to the level of ecosystem services the land might provide. To overcome these obstacles, we developed a method to estimate the value of a marginal change in the provision of a non‐use ecosystem service—in this case conservation of plants or animals associated with a given land‐cover type. Our method serves as a tool for calculating transferable valuations of small changes in the provision of ecosystem services relative to the existing provision. Valuation is achieved through stated‐preference investigations, calculation of a unit value for a parcel of land, and the weighting of this parcel by its ability to provide the desired ecosystem service and its effect on the ability of the surrounding land parcels to provide the desired service. We used the water vole (Arvicola terrestris) as a case study to illustrate the method. The average present value of a meter of water vole habitat was estimated at UK£12, but the marginal value of a meter (based on our methods) could range between £0 and £40 or more.     

城市区域生态系统服务功能--以深圳市为例

了解城市中自然生态系统的状态与作用,是进行城市科学管理的基本前提。以深圳市为例,分析城市自然生态系统的主要服务功能,并探讨其对城市居民生活质量的重要性,重点回答关于城市自然生态系统及其服务功能的3个问题:(1)各项生态系统服务功能有助于解决城市的什么问题?(2)哪些生态系统、如何参与这些生态服务?(3)通过深圳市的实例对生态系统服务进行初步量化和评价。