Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study's inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.     

浅谈生态道德观对环境科学发展的指导

针对环境科学的特点,立足于长远发展,从生态哲学角度分析了生态道德观对环境科学技术的重要价值。分析认为应用生态的观点来学习和研究环境科学,才能达到最大程度防治的目的;合理融入生态观念的环境治理技术有利于经济发展;生态道德观是环境科技工作者必备的品质和环境科学发展的动力。通过这三个方面的分析得出环境科学技术的发展必须以生态道德观为指导的结论。另外本文从纵向和横向分析了生态道德观在指导环境科学技术发展过程中存在的问题并提出了相应的措施和建议。     

New view of environmental health: Toward an environmental research policy for international strategies

We are witnessing a growing concern with the global dimension of many environmental issues, reflected in the increase in the number and significance of international environmental organizations. Yet there is no internationally applicable strategy for environmental research which is management oriented. A new type of research policy, which integrates ideas derived from environmental and human ecology, is required in order to deal with cultural and ecological diversity and their interactions as reflected in the ecology of landscapes. The newly defined concept of environmental health is proposed to fill this gap. This concept integrates the latest developments in landscape evolutionary ecology and environmental health, bringing out a conflict between making the environment conducive to human health and increasing the available options for supporting the essential biological and ecological processes of the environment. Lessons derived from the evolution of human environments are used in order to illustrate how health may become un umbrella for developing an environmental research policy, which could also serve as a catalyst for international environmental projects.     

Finding Common Ground: How Advocacy Coalitions Succeed in Protecting Environmental Flows1

Abstract: This paper reviews several recent case studies in which states or countries have strengthened their protection of environmental flows to explore the key policy, stakeholder, and scientific elements that contributed to these advances in water management. A conceptual framework is developed to describe the actions of interest groups and individuals, how environmental flow issues get onto the formal agenda of decision makers, the events and conditions which precipitate this attention, the role of science and scientific uncertainty, and how interactions and dialog among individuals and groups with different interests lead to changes in state and national statutes. In general, the review found that changing policies is a result of actions of informed groups of interested parties using science and information to inform both the public and decision makers about the need for action and about the specific action needed. In almost all cases, environmental flow issues make it onto the formal agenda of institutions through one or more precipitating events, often legal challenges that call into question the existing legal framework for water management. Significantly, in almost all cases the engagement between advocacy coalitions with different and often opposing views results in reframing the issues to provide a common approach or solution upon which the competing coalitions can agree.     

An Assessment of Stakeholder Perceptions and Management of Noxious Alien Plants in Spain

Despite biological invasions being a worldwide phenomenon causing significant ecological, economic, and human welfare impacts, there is limited understanding regarding how environmental managers perceive the problem and subsequently manage alien species. Spanish environmental managers were surveyed using questionnaires to (1) analyze the extent to which they perceive plant invasions as a problem; (2) identify the status, occurrence, and impacts of noxious alien plant species; (3) assess current effort and expenditure targeting alien plant management; and, finally, (4) identify the criteria they use to set priorities for management. In comparison to other environmental concerns, plant invasions are perceived as only moderately problematic and mechanical control is the most valued and frequently used strategy to cope with plant invasions in Spain. Based on 70 questionnaires received, 193 species are considered noxious, 109 of which have been the subject of management activities. More than 90% of species are found in at least one protected area. According to respondents, the most frequently managed species are the most widespread across administrative regions and the ones perceived as causing the highest impacts. The perception of impact seems to be independent of their invasion status, since only half of the species identified as noxious are believed to be invasive in Spain, while 43% of species thought to only be casual aliens are causing a high impact. Records of management costs are poor and the few data indicate that the total actual expenditure amounted to 50,492,437 € in the last decade. The majority of respondents stated that management measures are insufficient to control alien plants due to limited economic resources, lack of public awareness and support, and an absence of coordination among different public administrations. Managers also expressed their concern about the fact that much scientific research is concerned with the ecology of alien plants rather than with specific cost-efficient strategies to manage alien species.     

Comparing Environmental Flow Implementation Options with Structured Decision Making: Case Study from the Willamette River,Oregon

Many frameworks have been used to identify environmental flows for sustaining river ecosystems or specific taxa in the face of widespread flow alteration. However, these frameworks largely focus on identifying suitable flows and often ignore the important links between management actions, resulting flows, and valued ecosystem or social responses. Structured decision making (SDM) could assist the comparison of environmental flows by providing a mature framework to link management actions to objectives via environmental flow science. We describe SDM and illustrate its application using a case study focused on comparing environmental flow scenarios for the mainstem Willamette River, Oregon. In a short timeframe, SDM was applied to identify objectives, develop empirical and expert opinion‐based models, and compare flow scenarios while accounting for interannual flow variability and partial controllability. No scenario was clearly preferred based on available knowledge, largely because river flows could only be partially controlled through dam operations. Participants agreed that SDM was useful for comparing alternative dam operations, but that refined predictive models and additional objectives were needed to better inform basinwide flow decisions. In our view, SDM can provide more realistic comparisons of environmental flows by accounting for partial controllability and uncertainty, which may result in greater implementation of available flow management actions.     

Uneven Environmental Management: A Canadian Perspective

Advocates of community-based approaches to environmental management argue that by respecting local circumstances, skills, and concerns we may improve the prospects of achieving environmental sustainability; yet, within nation states such as Canada, environmental conditions, management and enforcement costs and capabilities, and power differentials within and among civic and public sectors may result in a highly differentiated capacity for environmental management across different localities and regions. This article draws on insights of political ecology to 1) create a conceptual framework that identifies key elements shaping regional environmental management regimes and to 2) undertake a comparative analysis to assess how elements interact to generate uneven management outcomes. I compare experiences of two Canadian biosphere reserves designated in 2000: Clayoquot Sound, BC; and Redberry Lake, SK. Analysis reveals that differences in governance and institutional capacities in the biosphere reserves are key to explaining uneven local outcomes. Where the public and civic sectors are strong, a robust and publicly vetted form of management will emerge. Where these sectors are weak and land is held as private property, environmental nongovernmental organizations can set the type and level of management, to the exclusion of effective civic and state involvement. This result may improve environmental sustainability but hinder social sustainability of a management regime and raises questions about the efficacy of community-based management.     

A Multiscale Conceptual Framework for Integrated Ecogeomorphological Research to Support Stream Naturalization in the Agricultural Midwest

The complexity of fluvial systems necessitates interdisciplinary research in fluvial geomorphology and aquatic ecology to develop a fundamental understanding of interconnections among biotic and abiotic aspects of these systems. Integrated knowledge of this type is vital for environmental management of streams in human-dominated environments. A conceptual framework is presented for integrating geomorphological and ecological research on streams in East Central Illinois, USA, a glaciated low-relief agricultural landscape. The framework embodies a multiscale perspective in which a geomorphological conception of the fluvial system is used to define a hierarchy of characteristic spatial scales for exploring important linkages between stream geomorphology and aquatic ecology. The focus ecologically is on fish, because a rich body of historical information exists on fisheries in East Central Illinois and because past work has suggested that availability of physical habitat is a major factor influencing the community characteristics of fish in this human-altered environment. The hierarchy embodied in the framework includes the network, link, planform, bar unit, bar element, and bedform/grain scales. Background knowledge from past research is drawn upon to identify potential linkages between geomorphological and ecological conditions at each of these scales. The conceptual framework is useful for guiding integrated ecogeomorphological research at specific scales and across different scales. It also is helpful for illustrating how widespread human modification of streams has catastrophically altered the scalar structure of fluvial systems in East Central Illinois. Knowledge emerging from the integrated research provides a basis for environmental-management schemes directed toward stream naturalization.     

Environmental planning,ecosystem science,and ecosystem approaches for integrating environment and development

Currently popular concepts such as sustainable development and sustainability seek the integration of environment and development planning. However, there is little evidence that this integration is occurring in either mainstream development planning or environmental planning. This is a function of the history, philosophies, and evolved roles of both. A brief review of the experience and results of mainstream planning, environmental planning, and ecosystem science suggests there is much in past scientific and professional practice that is relevant to the goal of integrated planning for environment and development, but still such commonly recommended reforms as systems and multidisciplinary approaches, institutional integration, and participatory, goal-oriented processes are rarely achieved. “Ecosystem approaches,” as developed and applied in ecology, human ecology, environmental planning, anthropology, psychology, and other disciplines, may provide a more transdisciplinary route to successful integration of environment and development. Experience with ecosystem approaches is reviewed, their advantages and disadvantages are discussed, and they are compared to traditional urban and regional planning, environmental planning, and ecosystem science approaches. Ultimately a synthesis of desirable characteristics for a framework to integrate environment and development planning is presented as a guide for future work and a criterion for evaluating existing programs.     

The potential of public engagement in sustainable waste management: designing the future for biosolids in New Zealand

Strategies for beneficial use of biosolids in New Zealand and elsewhere are currently focused primarily on land application. The long-term success of these and other strategies is dependent not only on technical factors, but also on their environmental, economic, social and cultural sustainability. This paper briefly reviews the situation with respect to biosolids management in New Zealand, where land application is not yet widespread; the rise in public opposition to land application in the United States; and the biosolids industry's approach to public engagement. We argue that, at least until recently, the industry has misinterpreted the nature and meaning of public opposition and thus substituted public relations for public engagement. We argue that genuine public engagement is necessary and that its purpose cannot be to gain public acceptance for an already-decided-upon strategy. It therefore calls for humility among biosolids managers, including a willingness to open up the framing of 'the problem', to acknowledge areas of uncertainty, and to recognise the role of values in 'technical' decision-making. We then present and analyse an example of the use of the scenario workshop process for public participation in biosolids management policy in Christchurch, New Zealand, and conclude that scenario workshops and related methods represent an opportunity to enhance sustainable waste management when certain conditions are met.     

An Analytical Review of Environmental Justice Research: What Do We Really Know?

This article presents a review of major empirical research on environmental justice. Forty-two empirical research studies spanning three decades were evaluated and categorized on the basis of how well they meet reasonable scientific standards. Twelve of those studies are described and critiqued in detail, and an overview of trends in the literature is presented. The author concludes that the empirical foundations of environmental justice are so underdeveloped that little can be said with scientific authority regarding the existence of geographical patterns of disproportionate distributions and their health effects on minority, low-income, and other disadvantaged communities. If environmental managers and policy-makers do not recognize the high levels of empirical uncertainty surrounding the issue, they are apt to attribute an empirically unwarranted level of concreteness to the empirical research findings, thus leading to poorly conceptualized and therefore potentially harmful policy and management decisions.     

Are There Ecological Foundations for Ecosystem Health?

We present a critical introduction to the problems shared by ecologists and ecosystem health researchers who attempt to integrate applied ecology with other disciplines. The importance of the concept of ecosystem health as an approach to environmental problems is presented, and the difficulties in integrating ecology into the concept are outlined. A rigorous ecological and evolutionary basis for ecosystem health is introduced through diversity abundance models and especially by the outcome of competitive exclusion, niche hierarchy, and log normality. The importance of defining functional groups for assessing the effects of disturbance (e.g., on pollinators, macrolepidoptera, diatoms, gut bacteria) and in the broader context of ecosystem health (e.g., through pollinating bees) is stressed.     

Adaptive management for sound ecosystem management

Sound ecosystem management meshes socioeconomic attitudes and values with sustainable natural resource practices. Adaptive management is a model for guiding natural resource managers in this process. Ecosystems and the societies that use them are continually evolving. Therefore, managers must be flexible and adaptable in the face of uncertainty and lack of knowledge. To couple good science to management, it is important to develop goals, models, and hypotheses that allow us to systematically learn as we manage. Goals and models guide the development and implementation of management practices. The need to evaluate models and test hypotheses mandates monitoring, which feeds into a continuous cycle of goal and model reformulation. This paper reviews the process of adaptive management and describes how it is being applied to oak/pine savanna restoration at Necedah National Wildlife Refuge as an illustration. Our aim is to help managers design their own adaptive management models for successful ecosystem management.     

Integrating local and scientific knowledge for environmental management

This paper evaluates the processes and mechanisms available for integrating different types of knowledge for environmental management. Following a review of the challenges associated with knowledge integration, we present a series of questions for identifying, engaging, evaluating and applying different knowledges during project design and delivery. These questions are used as a basis to compare three environmental management projects that aimed to integrate knowledge from different sources in the United Kingdom, Solomon Islands and Australia. Comparative results indicate that integrating different types of knowledge is inherently complex – classification of knowledge is arbitrary and knowledge integration perspectives are qualitatively very different. We argue that there is no single optimum approach for integrating local and scientific knowledge and encourage a shift in science from the development of knowledge integration products to the development of problem-focussed, knowledge integration processes. These processes need to be systematic, reflexive and cyclic so that multiple views and multiple methods are considered in relation to an environmental management problem. The results have implications for the way in which researchers and environmental managers undertake and evaluate knowledge integration projects.     

Comparing two sets of forest cover change knowledge used in forest landscape management planning

Forecasts of future resource states are central to resource management planning. Many simulation models and planning tools are used to produce such forecasts and apply knowledge of resource change dynamics as key input. Consistency among knowledge sources is therefore important to avoid knowledge ambiguity and uncertainty in resource forecasts and management plan outcomes. Using Ontario's boreal forest landscape as a case study, this paper examined two knowledge sources of forest resource change, practitioner expertise and research studies, commonly applied in plans and policies for large forest landscapes. The two knowledge sources were quantitatively compared by constructing networks of forest cover change for both sources and determining their agreement in structure and transition times. Some networks agreed well, indicating little knowledge ambiguity and comparatively low uncertainty if they were used to forecast forest landscapes. Other networks showed low agreement, thus indicating higher knowledge ambiguity and a dilemma of choice for forest landscape planners who may have to select from these knowledge sets. It is suggested that knowledge disagreements may be widespread in knowledge-driven management planning of many natural resource types and their causes similar. These disagreements signal areas of knowledge uncertainty, where resource planners must address resulting uncertainty of management outcomes and research should focus on improving resource change knowledge.     

Environmental planning and management: The need for an integrative perspective

Effective integration and implementation of environmental policies is directly related to the effectiveness of environmental management. Developing more effective environmental policy and programs requires coordinating the many factors related to environmental quality. The purpose of this paper is to point out the differences in perceptions and attributes of two operating groups in society: the technologists and the ecologists. Furthermore, an attempt is made to explain the need for effective environmental management and to suggest that only when such a role is fully institutionalized will decision makers have the impetus to take both the present and the future into consideration. Only by developing an understanding of the tools used by all groups working in the environmental arena will the environmental manager be able to provide both short- and longrange perspectives. By using these perspectives, the environmental manager will be able to mold environmental factors into operational policies and objectives.In conclusion, the systems analysis approach presented is the set of tools that can be used by the environmental manager to aid in bringing the two points of view closer together. The technologist, as well as the ecologist, will be required to work within a management system to more effectively and accurately define states of nature and assess alternatives in terms of primary, secondary, and higher-order consequences over both the short and long term.     

The role of population projections in environmental management

California and other regions in the United States are becoming more populated and ethnically diverse, and thus, ecological impacts on the wildland–urban interface are a significant policy concern. In a socioeconomic assessment focused on the geographic regions surrounding four national forests in southern California, population projections are being formulated to assist in the update of forest plans. In southern California, the projected trend of explosive population growth combined with increased ethnic and racial diversity indicates four challenges for environmental management. First, patterns of recreation use on wildlands are likely to change, and management of these areas will have to address new needs. Second, as land-management agencies face changing constituencies, new methods of soliciting public involvement from ethnic and racial groups will be necessary. Third, growth in the region is likely to encroach upon wildland areas, affecting water, air, open space, and endangered species. Fourth, in order to address all these concerns in a climate of declining budgets, resource management agencies need to strengthen collaborative relationships with other agencies in the region. How environmental managers approach these changes has widespread implications for the ecological sustainability of forests in southern California.     

Applying local knowledge: the contribution of oral history to wetland rehabilitation at Kanyapella Basin, Australia

Local knowledge of the history and ecology of wetland ecosystems can be a valuable resource in wetland rehabilitation projects. This is especially the case when other historical ecological information is unavailable. As well as providing a source of historical information, time spent acquiring local knowledge can enhance public participation in environmental management and facilitate early conflict resolution between stakeholders and the community. This paper investigates the use of oral history as a tool to collate a history of the flooding, ecology and management of Kanyapella Basin, a 2581 ha wetland on the floodplain of the Murray and Goulburn Rivers, Australia. Interviews were held with nine local residents and 11 natural resource managers. Oral history proved an effective way to obtain information about changes in the frequency and distribution of flood events over the last 60 years. Observations of rare and threatened fauna, and comments regarding the success of past management were also recorded. Results from the oral history have been used to direct ecological research and develop alternative management options at Kanyapella Basin. In addition to its use in gathering ecological information, oral history also proved effective in enabling the values and concerns of local community and stakeholders to be articulated, increasing managers' understanding of the social context of the particular locality, which is fundamental to sound environmental decision-making.