Combining multistate capture-recapture data with tag recoveries to estimate demographic parameters

Matrix population models that allow an animal to occupy more than one state over time are important tools for population and evolutionary ecologists. Definition of state can vary, including location for metapopulation models and breeding state for life history models. For populations whose members can be marked and subsequently reencountered, multistate mark-recapture models are available to estimate the survival and transition probabilities needed to construct population models. Multistate models have proved extremely useful in this context, but they often require a substantial amount of data and restrict estimation of transition probabilities to those areas or states subjected to formal sampling effort. At the same time, for many species, there are considerable tag recovery data provided by the public that could be modeled in order to increase precision and to extend inference to a greater number of areas or states. Here we present a statistical model for combining multistate capture-recapture data (e.g., from a breeding ground study) with multistate tag recovery data (e.g., from wintering grounds). We use this method to analyze data from a study of Canada Geese (Branta canadensis) in the Atlantic Flyway of North America. Our analysis produced marginal improvement in precision, due to relatively few recoveries, but we demonstrate how precision could be further improved with increases in the probability that a retrieved tag is reported.     

Energetics of Euphausia pacifica. I. Effects of body carbon and nitrogen and temperature on measured and predicted production

Laboratory production during the life span of Euphausia pacifica was measured directly (as the sum of growth, molting and reproduction) and indirectly (as assimilation minus metabolism and leakage) to test the hypothesis that weight-specific production is a constant for all sizes. Euphausiids were collected in Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, from September 1973 to March 1978. Equations were determined (in terms of carbon and nitrogen at 8° and 12° C) expressing the relationships between body weight and the daily rates of growth, molting, reproduction, ingestion and metabolism. The allometric equation (R=aW ^b ) best related body weight (W) to the rate (R) for growth, molting, ingestion, respiration and excretion for life stages from late larvae through adults. As predicted by the original above hypothesis, the weight-specific coefficient (b) was close to 1.0 for ingestion and excretion; in contrast, b was 0.62 for growth, and 0.77 to 0.85 for molting and respiration. The Q₁₀ s also varied: 3.5 for growth, 2.4 for molting, about 3.0 for ingestion, and 2.0 for respiration and excretion. Assimilation efficiencies, for all weights and at both temperatures, were 81.3% of carbon and 85.9% of nitrogen ingested. The relationships between rate and body weight of early larvae for growth and molting were linear, as was the relationship for reproduction in adults. Weight-specific production was higher by I to 2% at 12° than 8° C for all life stages, and was 2 to 4% for carbon and 2 to 6% for nitrogen in adults, but 13 to 17% for carbon and 14 to 15% for nitrogen in early furcilia larvae. The null hypothesis was rejected for production measured directly, but would have been accepted if only an indirect measurement of nitrogen production had been considered. Clearly, indirect measurement incorporates all errors of measurement and assumption and makes interpretation difficult.     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

Larval development of the hermit crab Clibanarius albidigitus (Crustacea: Anomura: Diogenidae) reared under laboratory conditions

The larval development of Clibanarius albidigitus Nobili is described and illustrated from laboratory-reared specimens. At 30°C, this species passes through four zoeal stages before molting to the megalopa. Of the 120 individual larvae reared, survival was high, with 88% reaching the megalopal stage. Zoeal stage durations varied from 3 to 18 d. Rearing was terminated after 45 d, and at that time no megalopae had molted to the firstcrab stage. Among known larvae of Clibanarius species, C. albidigitus is immediately distinguished by the presence of dorsomedial and dorsolateral carapace keels.     

Survival of communally reared larval and juvenile lobsters,Homarus americanus

Survival of individually reared larval and juvenile stage lobsters, Homarus americanus (Milne-Edwards), was significantly higher than in corresponding groups of communally reared individuals. Among communally reared lobsters, the mortality rate was highest in the second-stage larvae and then progressively decreased in the later stages. The relationship between survival and duration of molt period of each life-cycle stage indicates that asynchronous molting in the groups of communally reared lobsters is a contributing factor to the higher mortality rate. The molting and mortality curves of communally held lobsters reared from the first larval to first or second juvenile stage showed best cross correlation at 0- or 1-day time lag. The decreased mortality rate observed in the later larval and juvenile stages appears to have resulted from the establishment of new behavior patterns. Group interactions which are influenced by numerous extrinsic and intrinsic factors lead to higher mortality rate (cannibalism) among communally reared lobsters.     

Iteroparity in the variable environment of the salamander Ambystoma tigrinum

Simultaneous estimation of survival, reproduction, and movement is essential to understanding how species maximize lifetime reproduction in environments that vary across space and time. We conducted a four-year, capture-recapture study of three populations of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum) and used multistate mark-recapture statistical methods to estimate the manner in which movement, survival, and breeding probabilities vary under different environmental conditions across years and among populations and habitats. We inferred how individuals may mitigate risks of mortality and reproductive failure by deferring breeding or by moving among populations. Movement probabilities among populations were extremely low despite high spatiotemporal variation in reproductive success and survival, suggesting possible costs to movements among breeding ponds. Breeding probabilities varied between wet and dry years and according to whether or not breeding was attempted in the previous year. Estimates of survival in the nonbreeding, forest habitat varied among populations but were consistent across time. Survival in breeding ponds was generally high in years with average or high precipitation, except for males in an especially ephemeral pond. A drought year incurred severe survival costs in all ponds to animals that attempted breeding. Female salamanders appear to defer these episodic survival costs of breeding by choosing not to breed in years when the risk of adult mortality is high. Using stochastic simulations of survival and breeding under historical climate conditions, we found that an interaction between breeding probabilities and mortality limits the probability of multiple breeding attempts differently between the sexes and among populations.     

A robust design capture-recapture model with multiple age classes augmented with population assignment data

The relative contribution of in situ reproduction versus immigration to the recruitment process is important to ecologists. Here we consider a robust design superpopulation capture-recapture model for a population with two age classes augmented with population assignment data. We first use age information to estimate the entry probabilities of new animals originating via in situ reproduction and immigration separately for all except the first period. Then we combine age and population assignment information with the capture-recapture model, which enables us to estimate the entry probability of in situ births and the entry probability of immigrants separately for all sampling periods. Further, this augmentation of age specific capture-recapture data with population assignment data greatly improves the estimators’ precision. We apply our new model to a capture-recapture data set with genetic information for banner-tailed kangaroo rats in Southern Arizona. We find that many more individuals are born in situ than are immigrants for all time periods. Young animals have lower survival probabilities than adults born in situ. Adult animals born in situ have higher survival probabilities than adults that were immigrants.     

Effects of the insect growth regulator Dimilin® (TH 6040) on larval development of two estuarine crabs

Effects of Dimilin^® (TH 6040), an insect growth regulator which interferes with the formation of the insect cuticle, were studied on the larval development of Rhithropanopeus harrisii (Gould) and Sesarma reticulatum (Say) (Crustacea: Brachyura). When larvae were exposed to 0.5 (R. harrisii only), 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 ppb Dimilin from hatching to the first crab stage, survival in both species decreased in relation to increased concentrations of Dimilin. Survival of R. harrisii larvae wa significantly lower at 1 ppb and higher levels compared with control experiments, and in S. reticulatum a significant decrease in survival began at the 3 ppb level. At 10 ppb Dimilin, no larvae survived to the megalopa stage in either of the two species. The results indicate that early stage larvae of R. harrisii are more sensitive to Dimilin than those of S. reticulatum. When R. harrisii larvae were treated with 10 ppb Dimilin during the intermolt period of each of the 4 zoeal stages, nearly all larvae died during molting to the succeeding stage. First zoeal larvae of R. harrisii exposed to 10 ppb Dimilin at various days during the intermolt period were more sensitive to the compound late than early in the period. It is suggested that Dimilin also may interfere with the formation of the cuticle in crab larvae.     

Effects of dieldrin in seawater on the development of two species of crab larvae,Leptodius floridanus and Panopeus herbstii

Some of the effets of dieldrin on the development of two species of crabs, Leptodius floridanus (Rathbun) and Panopeus herbstii (Milne-Edwards), were studied. It was found that the larvae of neither species were able to complete their development at 10 ppb dieldrin or higher in seawater. Groups of L. floridanus larvae reared in 1 ppb dieldrin in seawater had a 15 to 27% higher mortality during development to the postlarval stage than controls. The highest mortality occurred during the first zoeal stage. The time of development to the megalopal stage was as much as 11.4% longer among larvae reared in 1 ppb than among controls. The survival of L. floridanus larvae was not affected by 0.5 ppb dieldrin in seawater. The survival of P. herbstii larvae to the first crab stage was not affected by 1 ppb dieldrin in seawater at 28.5 °C, 30%.S. It was concluded that a comprehensive study of the toxicity of a given pesticide to all stages in the life cycle of a species is necessary to give even an incomplete idea of how the pesticide might affect the animal in its natural environment.     

Locomotion,feeding, grooming and the behavioural responses to gravity,light and hydrostatic pressure in the stage I zoea larvae of Ebalia tuberosa (Crustacea: Decapoda: Leucosiidae)

The stage I zoeae of Ebalia tuberosa swam by sculling with the exopodites of the 1st and 2nd maxillipeds and flexed the abdomen to brake or change direction. The larvae gained depth by stopping all natatory movements and sinking passively at rates of 6 mm s^-1. The zoeae refused both living and dead nauplii of Artemia spp., as well as two species of diatoms, but fed readily on detritic material on the bottom which they scooped up using the endopodites of the maxillipeds and pressed against the mouthparts using the telson. The setae on the posterior border of the telson were used for grooming the maxillipeds and the anterior mouthparts. Day-old stage I zoeae were negatively geotactic, positively phototactic and responded to pressure increases by swimming upwards and by high barokinesis. By the third day some larvae had become positively geotactic but were photopositive, and the majority responded to pressure increases as in the day-old larvae. Five-day old larvae were still photopositive but the majority had become positively geotactic and fewer himbers responded to pressure. Seven-day old larvae failed to respond to any of the stimuli used and assumed a predominantly benthic lifestyle. It is suggested that this anomalous behaviour is related to the dispersal of the larvae and to the specialized habitat requirements of the adults while the rather unusual morphology of the larvae is related to their feeding behaviour and semi-benthic lifestyle.     

Physioecology of zooplankton. II. Effects of phytoplankton concentration,temperature, and body size on the development and molting rates of Calanus pacificus and Pseudocalanus sp.

Developmental time and stage duration for Calanus pacificus Brodsky and Pseudocalanus sp. and the rate of loss of body carbon by molting for C. pacificus were estimated for copepodite stages cultured under various combinations of phytoplankton concentration and temperature. Mean development time and stage duration for C. pacificus decreased hyperbolically with increasing food concentration, and the minimum time required for reaching a given stage decreased logarithmically with a logarithmic increase in temperature. Low temperature retarded the development of early stages proportionally more than that of late stages, and stage duration increased logarithmically with increasing body weight. Therefore, copepodite development was not isochronal. The rate of loss of body carbon by molting was small, ranging from 0.2 to 2% day^-1. This rate increased hyperbolically with food concentration and was linearly related to the growth rate. The critical food concentration for the rates of development and molting increased with temperature and stage of development, but these rates were less dependent on food concentration than the growth rate. The development rate of Pseudocalanus sp. was higher than that of C. pacificus, and was less influenced by changes in food concentration and temperature. It is postulated that the inverse relationship between temperature and body size results from a differential effect of temperature and body size on the rates of growth and development. That is, with increasing body size the growth rate tends to become temperature-independent, but the development rate remains proportional to temperature. Thus, copepodites growing at low temperature can experience a greater weight increment between molting periods than individuals growing at high temperature, because the growth rate is similar at all temperatures but stage duration is longer at low temperature.Contribution No. 1128 from the Department of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA     

Shifting foraging strategies in colonies of the social wasp Polybia occidentalis (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

Social insect colonies can be expected to forage at rates that maximize colony fitness. Foraging at higher rates would increase the rate of worker production, but decrease adult survival. This trade-off has particular significance during the founding stage, when adults lost are not replaced. Prior work has shown that independent-founding wasps rear the first workers rapidly by foraging at high rates. Foraging rates decrease after those individuals pupate, presumably reducing the risk of foundress death. In the swarm-founding wasps, colony-founding units have many workers, making colony death by forager attrition less likely. Do swarm-founding wasps show similar shifts in foraging rates during the founding stage? We measured foraging rates of the swarm-founding wasp, Polybia occidentalis at four stages of colony development. At each stage, foraging rates correlated with the number of larvae present, which, in the founding stages, correlated with the number of cells in the new nest. Thus, foraging rates appear to be demand-driven, with the level of demand in the founding stage set by the size of nest that is constructed. During the founding stage, foraging rates per larva were high initially, suggesting that colonies minimize the development times of larvae early in the founding stage. Later in the stage, foraging rates decreased, which would reduce worker mortality until new workers eclose. This pattern is similar to that shown for independent-founding wasps and likely results from conflicting pressures to maximize colony growth and minimize the risk of colony death by forager attrition.     

Accumulation of cadmium by larvae and adults of an Hawaiian bivalve,Isognomon californicum,during chronic exposure

Larvae and adults of an Hawaiian bivalve, Isognomon californicum, were exposed to sublethal, environmentally realistic concentrations of cadmium (2 and 20 ppb) for 28 d, and the accumulation of cadmium was evaluated. The concentrations of cadmium were expressed in terms of total cadmium (tissue and shell concentrations combined) and tissue cadmium. The accumulation rates of larvae were one to two orders of magnitude greater than adult rates. This study suggests that the faster uptake rates of larvae may explain why larvae are more sensitive than adults. Furthermore, the magnitude of differences between larval and adult accumulation rates may be related to metabolic rate. When larvae and adults were exposed to cadmium for only 14 d, followed by a 14 d depuration period, a substantial loss of cadmium was observed during the depuration period. Possible accumulation mechanisms and their similarity between larvae and adults are discussed.     

Importance of food quality in determining development and survival of Calanus pacificus (Copepoda: Calanoida)

Mixed zooplankton were collected in June and July of 1985 and 1986 from La Jolla Bay, California, USA, and experiments were conducted to determine how selected dinoflagellates affect development and survival of nauplius larvae of Calanus pacificus. We raised nauplii from eggs on nine species of dinoflagellates at concentrations generally >300 g C l^-1, and compared their development and survival to controls reared using the diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii or filtered seawater. Experiments were conducted for 6 d at 17°C. Development and survival rates of the nauplii fell clearly into one of two groups, depending upon the phytoplankton used as food. The first group was characterized by high development rate (0.46 to 0.84 stage d^-1), and by >27% of the original cohort surviving to at least Nauplius IV or V. The five species producing this result were Gymnodinium simplex, G. splendens, Exuviaella marie-lebourae, Gyrodinium dorsum, and T. weissflogii. The second group was characterized by a development rate similar to that in filtered seawater (0.21 to 0.34 stage d^-1), and by nauplii generally failing to molt past the first feeding stage (Nauplius III), often accompanied by high mortality. The five species producing this result were Gyrodinium resplendens, Ptychodiscus brevis, Glenodinium sp., Amphidinium carterae, and Gonyaulax grindleyi. Development rate and survival were not related to cell size or cell carbon, nor to shape or texture (thecate vs athecate dinoflagellates). Poor growth could be related to the absence of some important, but unidentified, nutritional factors. Alternatively, it could be caused by the presence of plant secondary metabolites which are deleterious to growth, a factor we suspect in P. brevis in particular. Prefeeding nauplii exposed to P. brevis lost neuromuscular control prior to becoming lethargic and dying; nutritional deficiencies may not explain these effects. Methods employed in this study provide useful bioassays for detecting chemical interactions between marine plants and animals. Lethal or sublethal effects of dinoflagellates on their most likely potential predators — copepods — may partially explain why they form significant blooms.     

A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies

Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages.     

Estimating demographic parameters for capture–recapture data in the presence of multiple mark types

In mark-recapture studies, various techniques can be used to uniquely identify individual animals, such as ringing, tagging or photo-identification using natural markings. In some long-term studies more than one type of marking procedure may be implemented during the study period. In these circumstances, ignoring the different mark types can produce biased survival estimates since the assumption that the different mark types are equally catchable (homogeneous capture probability across mark types) may be incorrect. We implement an integrated approach where we simultaneously analyse data obtained using three different marking techniques, assuming that animals can be cross-classified across the different mark types. We discriminate between competing models using the AIC statistic. This technique also allows us to estimate both relative mark-loss probabilities and relative recapture efficiency rates for the different marking methods. We initially perform a simulation study to explore the different biases that can be introduced if we assume a homogeneous recapture probability over mark type, before applying the method to a real dataset. We make use of data obtained from an intensive long-term observational study of UK female grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) at a single breeding colony, where three different methods are used to identify individuals within a single study: branding, tagging and photo-identification based on seal coat pattern or pelage.     

Growth of larval krill,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Euphausia superba</Emphasis>, in fall and winter west of the Antarctic Peninsula

A quantitative characterization of growth-related parameters for larval and juvenile Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba (Dana), is essential to understanding the early life history of this key species in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. To this end, instantaneous growth rate experiments were conducted with larval and juvenile krill to determine growth increments and molting frequency in situ. All experiments were carried out during fall and winter months (April through September) on nine separate cruises west of the Antarctic Peninsula between 1987 and 1999. A consistent seasonal pattern across years was observed: growth rates decreased during fall (April/May), were minimal in early winter (June), and increased to maximum rates by late winter (September). Habitat-specific differences (water column vs under-ice) in growth rates of larvae collected on the same cruise were not observed in early winter (June 1993; within-year comparison). However, in a between-year comparison, larvae from the under-ice habitat (June/July 1987) had significantly higher growth increments than larvae from the open-water habitat (July 1989). The difference between these two comparisons may be a function of the degree of contrast in food availability in the water column and the sea ice at different times in the winter. Daylength at the time of collection explained 74% of the variation in larval and juvenile growth rates. This correlation may be an indirect effect of the influence of diel cycles on krill behavior and/or primary production in both the water column and ice.Communicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick     

Age-dependent survival analyzed with Bayesian models of mark-recapture data

We describe a Bayesian random effects model of mark-recapture data that accounts for age-dependence in survival and individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities and survival. The model is applied to data on the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) collected from a population enclosed in a large cage in the field. The cage population consisted of a mixture of butterflies originating from newly established and old populations in a large metapopulation in the Aland Islands in Finland. The explanatory variables in the model included the effects of temperature, sex, and population type (new vs. old) on capture probabilities, and the effects of age, sex, population type, and day vs. night on survival. We found that mortality rate increased with age, that mortality rate was much higher during the day than during the night, and that the life span of females originating from newly established populations was shorter than the life span of females from old populations. Capture probability decreased with increasing temperature and decreased with increasing mobility of individuals.     

Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities

Many ecosystems are influenced by disturbances that create specific successional states and habitat structures that species need to persist. Estimating transition probabilities between habitat states and modeling the factors that influence such transitions have many applications for investigating and managing disturbance-prone ecosystems. We identify the correspondence between multistate capture-recapture models and Markov models of habitat dynamics. We exploit this correspondence by fitting and comparing competing models of different ecological covariates affecting habitat transition probabilities in Florida scrub and flatwoods, a habitat important to many unique plants and animals. We subdivided a large scrub and flatwoods ecosystem along central Florida's Atlantic coast into 10-ha grid cells, which approximated average territory size of the threatened Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a management indicator species. We used 1.0-m resolution aerial imagery for 1994, 1999, and 2004 to classify grid cells into four habitat quality states that were directly related to Florida Scrub-Jay source-sink dynamics and management decision making. Results showed that static site features related to fire propagation (vegetation type, edges) and temporally varying disturbances (fires, mechanical cutting) best explained transition probabilities. Results indicated that much of the scrub and flatwoods ecosystem was resistant to moving from a degraded state to a desired state without mechanical cutting, an expensive restoration tool. We used habitat models parameterized with the estimated transition probabilities to investigate the consequences of alternative management scenarios on future habitat dynamics. We recommend this multistate modeling approach as being broadly applicable for studying ecosystem, land cover, or habitat dynamics. The approach provides maximum-likelihood estimates of transition parameters, including precision measures, and can be used to assess evidence among competing ecological models that describe system dynamics.     

The predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis manipulates imprinting among offspring through egg placement

A crucial question with respect to imprinting is how animals ensure that kin imprint on kin but not on non-kin. Imprinting takes place in a sensitive ontogenetic phase, usually in an early period of life or when offspring are produced, at which time the recipient imprints on the first referents met. In the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis, imprinting among immature individuals happens in the larval stage immediately after hatching. I tested the hypothesis that adult P. persimilis females manipulate offspring imprinting by influencing the likelihood of encounters among recipients and referents via egg placement and egg aggregation. I conducted two experiments, one of which addressed imprinting and cannibalism, and the other addressed egg placement and egg aggregation. The imprinting experiment suggests that larvae imprint on any conspecific individual met in a sensitive ontogenetic phase and later on treat this individual as kin, irrespective of relatedness. After molting to protonymphs, imprinted individuals preferentially cannibalized unfamiliar to familiar larvae. Irrespective of familiarity, kin were cannibalized earlier than non-kin, suggesting the involvement of self-referent phenotype matching. The egg-placement experiment provides evidence that females adjust the aggregation level of their own eggs according to the degree of relatedness to present eggs from a previously ovipositing female. Both experiments in concert suggest that egg placement is a maternal strategy influencing imprinting among immature individuals. Apart from avoiding kin cannibalism, egg placement and imprinting by larvae may have relevance to other behaviors influenced by kin recognition, such as mate choice, prey-patch choice and dispersal.Communicated by L. Simmons