DESIGN FOR A STABLE CHANNEL IN COARSE ALLUVIUM FOR RIPARIAN ZONE RESTORATION1

Geomorphic, hydraulic and hydrologic principles are applied in the design of a stable stream channel for a badly disturbed portion of Badger Creek, Colorado, and its associated riparian and meadow complexes. The objective is to shorten the period of time required for a channel in coarse alluvium to recover from an impacted morphologic state to a regime condition representative of current watershed conditions. Channel geometry measurements describe the stream channel and the normal bankfull stage in relatively stable reaches. Critical shear stress equations were used to design a stable channel in noncohesive materials with dimensions which approximate those of less disturbed reaches. Gabion controls, spaced at approximately 300 m intervals, are recommended to help reduce the chance of lateral migration of the newly constructed channel. Controls are designed to allow for some vertical adjustment of the channel bed following increased bank stability due to revegetation. The flood plain is designed to dissipate flood flow energy and discourage multiple flood channels. The channel has approximately a 90 percent chance of remaining stable the first two years following construction, the time estimated for increased stability to occur due to revegetation.     

ESTIMATING BASEFLOW VOLUME AND ITS UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: By using the exponential baseflow recession equation it is possible to estimate from a single discharge measurement the total volume of stream discharge during a baseflow period. If the discharge measurement is properly centered in the baseflow period the resulting estimate will be fairly precise, even if the baseflow recession coefficient is not known. Furthermore, based on an assumed probability distribution of the baseflow coefficient it is possible to estimate the uncertainty of the baseflow volume estimate. Estimates of baseflow volume and their uncertainty are potentially useful for estimating water budgets of lakes.     

ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD PLAIN MAPPING1

ABSTRACT: Components contributing to uncertainty in the location of the flood plain fringe of a mapped flood plain are identified and examined to determine their relative importance. First-order uncertainty analysis is used to provide a procedure for quantifying the magnitude of uncertainty in the location of the flood plain fringe. Application of the procedure indicated that one standard deviation of uncertainty in flood plain inundation width was about one third of the mean computed inundation width for several flood population-flood geometry combinations. Suggested mapping criteria, which directly incorporate uncertainty estimates, are given. While these criteria are more suitable for use in developing areas than in flood plains that have had extensive development, the analysis procedure can be used to accommodate property owners who challenge the validity of estimated flood fringe boundaries. Use of uncertainty analysis in flood plain mapping should enhance the credibility of the final plan.     

UNCERTAINTIES IN ESTIMATING THE WATER BALANCE OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of hydrologic methodology used in a number of water balance studies of lakes in the United States shows that most of these studies calculate one or more terms of the budget as the residual. A literature review was made of studies in which the primary purpose was error analysis of hydrologic measurement and interpretation. Estimates of precipitation can have a wide range of error, depending on the gage placement, gage spacing, and areal averaging technique. Errors in measurement of individual storms can be as high as 75 percent. Errors in short term averages are commonly in the 15-30 percent range, but decrease to about 5 percent or less for annual estimates. Errors in estimates of evaporation can also vary widely depending on instrumentation and methodology. The energy budget is the most accurate method of calculating evaporation; errors are in the 10–15 percent range. If pans are used that are located a distance from the lake of interest, errors can be considerable. Annual pan-to-lake coefficients should not be used for monthly estimates of evaporation because they differ from the commonly used coefficient of 0.7 by more than 100 percent. Errors in estimates of stream discharge are often considered to be within 5 percent. If the measuring section, type of flow profile, and other considerations, such as stage discharge relationship, are less than ideal errors in estimates of stream discharge can be considerably greater than 5 percent. Errors in estimating overland (nonchannelized) flow have not been evaluated, and in most lake studies this component is not mentioned. Comparison of several lake water balances in which the risdual consists solely of errors in measurement, shows that such a residual, if interpreted as ground water, can differ from an independent estimate of ground water by more than 100 percent.     

The Role of Observer Variation in Determining Rosgen Stream Types in Northeastern Oregon Mountain Streams1

Abstract: Consistency in determining Rosgen stream types was evaluated in 12 streams within the John Day Basin, northeastern Oregon. The Rosgen classification system is commonly used in the western United States and is based on the measurement of five stream attributes: entrenchment ratio, width‐to‐depth ratio, sinuosity, slope, and substrate size. Streams were classified from measurements made by three monitoring groups, with each group fielding multiple crews that conducted two to three independent surveys of each stream. In only four streams (33%) did measurements from all crews in all monitoring groups yield the same stream type. Most differences found among field crews and monitoring groups could be attributed to differences in estimates of the entrenchment ratio. Differences in entrenchment ratio were likely due to small discrepancies in determination of maximum bankfull depth, leading to potentially large differences in determination of Rosgen’s flood‐prone width and consequent values of entrenchment. The result was considerable measurement variability among crews within a monitoring group, and because entrenchment ratio is the first discriminator in the Rosgen classification, differences in the assessment of this value often resulted in different determination of primary stream types. In contrast, we found that consistently evaluated attributes, such as channel slope, rarely resulted in any differences in classification. We also found that the Rosgen method can yield nonunique solutions (multiple channel types), with no clear guidance for resolving these situations, and we found that some assigned stream types did not match the appearance of the evaluated stream. Based on these observations we caution the use of Rosgen stream classes for communicating conditions of a single stream or as strata when analyzing many streams due to the reliance of the Rosgen approach on bankfull estimates which are inherently uncertain.     

APPLICATION OF COMPUTER INTENSIVE STATISTICS TO PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN STREAMFLOW SYNTHESIS1

ABSTRACT: This paper introduces the application of Computer Intensive Statistics (CIS) to the evaluation of parameter uncertainty with specific reference to the parameters in the ARMA models used in the synthesis of streamflows. The CIS provides an empirically derived joint distribution for all parameters. Random values from this distribution can be drawn for application in the model for the generation of a specific synthetic sample. The CIS originally proposed by Efron and discussed herein is of general applicability in the evaluation of uncertainty in any statistic derived from a set of data. Some comments and limitations of the CIS are discussed in the concluding remarks.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.     

HYDROLOGIC UNCERTAINTY MEASURE AND NETWORK DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a simple methodology, using the entropy concept, to estimate regional hydro logic uncertainty and information at both gaged and ungaged grids in a basin. The methodology described in this paper is applicable for (a) the selection of the optimum station from a dense network, using maximization of information transmission criteria, and (b) expansion of a network using data from an existing sparse network by means of the information interpolation concept and identification of the zones from minimum hydrologic information. The computation of single and joint entropy terms used in the above two cases depends upon single and multivariable probability density functions. In this paper, these terms are derived for the gamma distribution. The derived formulation for optimum hydrologic network design was tested using the data from a network of 29 rain gages on Sleeper River Experimental Watershed. For the purpose of network reduction, the watershed was divided into three subregions, and the optimum stations and their locations in each subregion were identified. To apply the network expansion methodology, only the network consisting of 13 stations was used, and feasible triangular elements were formed by joining the stations. Hydrologic information was calculated at various points on the line segments, and critical information zones were identified by plotting information contours. The entropy concept used in this paper, although derived for single and bivaviate gamma distribution, is general in type and can easily be modified for other distributions by a simple variable transformation criterion.     

APPLICATIONS OF FUZZY LOGIC IN THE DESIGN OF VEGETATED WATERWAYS UNDER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: Two methods for analyzing uncertainty are described and compared in terms of their applicability for designing vegetated waterways. The first approach uses First and Second Order Analysis and the second employs Fuzzy Logic. The two methods were used to evaluate the uncertain parameters in the Manning formula, which is used for calculating the velocity of water flow in vegetated channels. Results indicate that both approaches can provide the designer with an indication of reliability of the estimates, a way of selecting a design option which meets a specified probability of success, as well as a means of comparing the relative importance of uncertainty in various input parameters. Also, the two methods have the common advantage of being simple and requiring less data about the uncertain parameters compared to the more comprehensive stochastic approaches. Although the Fuzzy Logic approach appears to provide a more conservative design because of its slightly higher variance, compared with the First and Second Order Analysis, both methods have proven to be reliable and suitable to deal with uncertainty.     

ESTIMATING PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD PROBABILITIES1

ABSTRACT: Methods of computing probabilities of extreme events that affect the design of major engineering structures have been developed for most failure causes, but not for design floods such as the probable maximum flood (PMF). Probabilities for PMF estimates would be useful for economic studies and risk assessments. Reasons for the reluctance of some hydrologists to assign a probability to a PMF are discussed, and alternative methods of assigning a probability are reviewed. Currently, the extrapolation of a frequency curve appears to be the most practical alternative. Using 46 stations in the Mid-Atlantic region, the log-gamma, log-normal, and log-Gumbel distributions were used to estimate PMF probabilities. A 600,000-year return period appears to be a reasonable probability to use for PMFs in the Mid-Atlantic region. The coefficient of skew accounts for much of the variation in computed probabilities.     

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF RUNOFF ESTIMATES FROM A RUNOFF CONTOUR MAP1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted an analysis to quantify the uncertainty associated with interpolating runoff to specific sites using a runoff contour map. We interpolated runoff to 93 gaged watersheds from a runoff contour map using (1) hand interpolation to the watershed outlet, (2) a computer interpolation to the watershed outlet, and (3) hand interpolation to the watershed centroid. We compared the interpolated values to the actual gaged values and found that there was a bias in the average interpolated value for runoff estimated at basin outlets, with interpolated values being less than the actual. We found no significant difference between the hand interpolation method and the computer interpolation method except that the computer method tended to have higher variability due to factors inherent to the software used. There were no strong spatial correlations or regional patterns in the runoff interpolations, which indicates that there are no regional biases introduced in the development of the contour map. We determined that we could estimate runoff, on the average, within approximately 8.9 cm (3.5 in; 15 percent) of the measured value using the three methods. The results of this work indicate that runoff contour maps can he used in regional studies to estimate runoff to ungaged systems with quantifiable uncertainty.     

SAMPLE UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD LEVEE DESIGN: BAYESIAN VERSUS NON-BAYESIAN METHODS1

ABSTRACT: Bayesian and non-Bayesian flood levee design methods that account for the uncertainty due to limited record length are compared using a case study. The first method, Bayesian decision theory (BDT), imbeds the uncertainty in the parameters of the yearly peak stage into a loss function. The optimum design of the flood levee, called Bayes design, corresponds to the minimum expected loss, called Bayes risk. The second method, induced safety algorithm (ISA), computes a margin of safety to be added to either an existing levee or a levee designed by classical benefit-cost analysis. The design decision is shown to fluctuate as different record lengths are considered. For short record lengths, BDT, which takes small sample bias into account, appears to yield a more conservative design than ISA. On the other hand, ISA, which is simple to implement, seems to be preferable to BDT for longer record lengths.     

STREAM MEANDER RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: Stream meander restoration designs currently used by many state and local government agencies are often based on empirical equations, such as those developed by Leopold and Wolman (1957; 1960). In order to assess the suitability of these equations and propose alternative strategies, 18 sites in Central Maryland were selected and data on channel planform, cross-sections, sediments, and spacing and sizing of the pools and riffles were collected and analyzed to characterize the channel type in the study area. A large bias was found comparing the meander parameters measured to those computed using the Leopold and Wolman equations for the streams in central Maryland. Based on these results, appropriate empirical equations for the study area that can assist in stream restoration designs were investigated. An additional approach that can assist in stream restoration consists of the application of a detailed stream reconnaissance to verify that the restoration project is consistent with the natural form and processes of the river.     

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: This research investigates the benefits of forecasting in water supply systems. Questions relating operational losses to forecast period and accuracy are addressed. Some simple available forecasting techniques are assessed for their accuracy and applicability. These issues are addressed through the use of a simulation model of the Cedar and South Fork Tolt Rivers, where the system is modeled as a single purpose reservoir supplying municipal and industrial water to the Seattle metropolitan area. The following conclusions were made for this system: (1) reservoir operation deteriorates markedly with the loss of forecast accuracy; (2) the optimal length of forecasting period is five months; (3) reservoir operation may be improved by as much as 88 percent if perfect predictive abilities are available; (4) the mean of the historic data is not recommended to predict future flows because Markov methods are always superior; and (5) lag-one autoregressive Markov schemes exhibit about a 9 percent improvement in operation over no forecasting.     

ESTIMATING THE SUSPENDED SEDIMENT LOAD IN RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: The total suspended sediment loads of four north Mississippi reservoirs were determined from measurements of concentrations of suspended sediment in a vertical profile at several locations on each reservoir made during the year. These data were combined with the stage-height and known stage-volume relationships for each reservoir in a numerical integration to determine the total suspended sediment in the water body. Total suspended sediments were estimated using the product of the suspended sediment concentration in the surface water by the appropriate reservoir volume. The averaged ratios of the estimated to measured suspended sediment loads for each reservoir exceeded 0.90. Since the concentration of suspended sediments in surface waters of north Mississippi reservoirs has been shown as highly correlated with spectral reflectance, estimating the total suspended sediment of these reservoirs using remotely sensed spectral reflectance data is possible.     

PROBABILISTIC METHODS IN STREAM QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT. Recent advances in water quality modelling have pointed out the need for stochastic models to simulate the probabilistic nature of water quality. However, often all that is needed is an estimate of the uncertainty in predicting water quality variables. First order analysis is a simple method of providing an estimate in the uncertainty in a deterministic model due to uncertain parameters. The method is applied to the simplified Streeter-Phelps equations for DO and BOD; a more complete Monte Carlo simulation is used to check the accuracy of the results. The first order analysis is found to give accurate estimates of means and variances of DO and BOD up to travel times exceeding the critical time. Uncertainty in travel time and the BOD decay constant are found to be most important for small travel times; uncertainty in the reaeration coefficient dominates near the critical time. Uncertainty in temperature was found to be a negligible source of uncertainty in DO for all travel times.     

DETECTION OF FRESH WATER AQUIFERS IN THE GLACIAL DEPOSITS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY GEOELECTRICAL METHODS1

Geoelectrical investigations in Grundy County of northwestern Missouri, where the groundwater resources of the glacial deposits have already been examined through an extensive drilling program by the Missouri Geological Survey and Water Resources, indicate that water-bearing gravel deposits can be distinguished from glacial deposits containing appreciable amounts of clay and limited amounts of water. The Schlumberger method used for the geoelectric depth soundings in the vicinity of the Survey's drillholes demonstrates the exploratory usefulness of the method in that it can partly replace the more expensive procedure of drilling. The method also provides improved interpretation between drillholes. Results of the investigation show that, in the area, clay has a resistivity below 20in, that the fresh water-bearing gravel at the bottom of the buried glacial stream channels has a resisitivity of 40 to 50fim, and that the near surface glacial gravel deposits have a resistivity above lOOfim. Interpretation of the depth soundings and the conductivity of water obtained from a local well implies that its water is drawn from the saline water of the bedrock. A recommendation is made for the quality improvement of this particular well.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT MODELING IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A modeling framework was developed to determine phosphorus loadings to Lake Okeechobee from watersheds located north of the lake. This framework consists of the land-based model CREAMS-WT, the in-stream transport model QUAL2E, and an interface procedure to format the land-based model output for use by the in-stream model. QUAL2E hydraulics and water quality routines were modified to account for flow routing and phosphorus retention in both wetlands and stream channels. Phosphorus loadings obtained from previous applications of CREAMS-WT were used by QUAL2E, and calibration and verification showed that QUAL2E accurately simulated seasonal and annual phosphorus loadings from a watershed. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicated that the accuracy of monthly loadings can be improved by using better estimates of in-stream phosphorus decay rates, ground water phosphorus concentrations, and runoff phosphorus concentrations as input to QUAL2E.