洪水灾害损失评估研究综述

洪水灾害是当今世界上最主要的自然灾害之一,给社会带来巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,科学地对洪水灾害进行损失评估是防洪减灾措施的理论基础和前提,也是当今社会研究的热点之一。文章从评估指标,评估方法,遥感和GIS三个方面国内外洪水灾害损失评估的研究进展做了介绍,概括了目前评估方法的优缺点和经济损失的新方法,并在研究现状进一步认识的基础上,提出了当今研究中存在的主要问题,最后指出了有待进一步研究和发展的新方向。     

Disaster risk reduction and international catastrophe risk insurance facility

The objectives of this research are to investigate resource loss effects from flooding and to provide recommendations on disaster risk reduction policies. This research utilized a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which found that losses of resources had major negative impacts on real gross domestic product (GDP). Transitioning from national catastrophe insurance fund to an international risk pooling approach is discussed, and as the Global Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility has not yet been established, our proposal suggests the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (ACRIF) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three catastrophic bonds (ASEAN?+?3 CAT bonds) as effective means of reducing fiscal liabilities arising from natural disasters, also effectively enhancing disaster risk reduction. These tools are complementary to Catastrophe Risk Swaps which are innovative global financial adaptation strategies designed to make communities and governments more resilient to disaster damages. They are ex-ante risk financing tools and sources of liquidity for damage restoration and economic recovery, which facilitates flexibility among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) and other governments requiring special assistance. Most importantly, utilization of insurance and catastrophic bonds promotes the achievement of set objectives of global adaptation strategies, sustainable economic growth, and climate resilient development.     

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HAZARDS MITIGATION IN THE UNITED STATES: DISASTERS BY DESIGN REVISITED

It has become clear that natural and related technological hazards and disasters are not problems that can be solved in isolation. The occurrence of disasters is a symptom of broader and more basic social problems. Since 1994, a team of over 100 expert academics and practitioners – including members of the private sector – have assessed, evaluated, and summarized knowledge about natural and technological hazards in the United States from the perspectives of the physical, natural, social, behavioral, and engineering sciences. The major thesis of the findings was losses from hazards and inability to comprehensively reduce losses of all types are the consequences of narrow and shortsighted development patterns, cultural premises, and attitudes toward the natural environment, science, and technology. To address these broad and basic problems, the study included proposals for ways in which people and the institutions of the United States can take responsibility for disaster losses, reduce future hazard losses, and link hazard mitigation to sustainable development.     

中国采煤沉陷区空间格局与治理模式

大面积的采煤沉陷区引发严重的社会和环境问题,得到政府和学术界的广泛关注。与传统以自然条件为基础的沉陷区复垦研究不同,考虑采煤沉陷区自然生态因素和区域经济发展条件,从综合治理的角度出发,分析中国采煤沉陷区整体格局和面临的社会经济风险,深入研究各地采煤沉陷区综合治理路径。结果表明：中国采煤沉陷区面积预计超过60000 km²,其中与城乡建设用地和耕地叠压的面积分别达到4500 km²和26000 km²,涉及人口达2000万左右,其中山西和山东两省采煤沉陷区的影响最为严重;从区域特征来看,中国采煤沉陷区有开发利用、环境修复、民生保障、异地搬迁四大主要治理导向,进一步结合社会经济和空间特征,可以将沉陷区分为环境适应发展型、基础设施完善型、特色产业带动型、环境修复型、民生保障型、异地搬迁型六个治理类型。     

中国自然灾害、减灾建设与可持续发展

本文依据国家减灾委减灾办所收集到的有关我国自然灾害的资料,以及国家基金委＂中国自然灾害区域规律＂研究所收集到的资料,分析了中国自然灾害的基本状况、危险性程度以及中国可持续发展与减灾建设。结论是中国可持续发展必须对减轻自然灾害给予高度重视,把减灾作为国家的基本国策。     

The International Boreal Forest Research Association: Understanding Boreal Forests and Forestry in a Changing World

Boreal forests represent a biome of the planet whose unique characteristics are changing rapidly under the influence of both human and natural pressures. These forests hold the key to current and future supply of coniferous industrial wood and at the same time play a significant role in regulating Earth's climatic system. Expected to be one of the most rapidly impacted regions of the world by future climate change, the boreal biome has already been substantially affected by global change. It is likely that if unabated, continued change will lead to impoverishment and degradation of boreal ecosystems, with consequent loss of vital services upon which human society depends. An improved systems understanding of the functioning of circumpolar boreal forests is a pressing challenge for boreal forest science and is needed in order to estimate their resilience to perturbations, to predict likely responses to the changing environment, and to design mitigation strategies. With such understanding, coordinated international efforts can be focused on developing anticipatory strategies for adaptation to, and mitigation of dangerous consequences of global change for boreal resources. The International Boreal Forest Research Association (IBFRA) provides a focus for international research on these issues and serves as a global window for boreal forest science and sustainable forest management in the boreal region.     

重庆三峡库区主要生态环境问题与对策

三峡水电站建成后，制约重庆经济可持续发展的关系是生态环境问题，包括三峡库区的水体污染，水土流失与泥沙问题，灾害性地质环境问题，建议建立三峡库区生态环境委员会，实行在市长领导下的环境保护行政领导责任制依法治库，加强生态环境意识教育，建立生态环境保护基金等。     

主要农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其应用研究

基于灾害风险分析的原理,论文提出了我国几种主要农业气象灾害风险评估的技术方法。包括一年生农作物、多年生果树减产率序列的构建技术,不同致灾因子、致灾指标序列的构建技术,灾害风险估算模型的构建技术;致灾损失(减产率)的风险评估技术,致灾指标的风险评估技术,减灾措施降低灾害风险的评估技术。通过对1961～2000年逐日气象资料与产量、灾情资料的相关分析研究,筛选出适用于北方地区冬小麦干旱、东北地区玉米和水稻冷害、江淮地区冬小麦和油菜涝渍、华南地区香蕉和荔枝寒害风险评估的主要致灾因子、致灾等级、致灾指标及其对应的减产率。以北方地区冬小麦干旱、华南地区香蕉和荔枝寒害风险评估为例,给出了针对一年生农作物、多年生果树不同承灾体类型的风险概率估算方法及其风险等级划分。结果表明:北方地区冬小麦干旱、华南地区香蕉和荔枝寒害风险概率分布有着很好的连片性和区域性。北方地区冬小麦全生育期内,自然水分亏缺的风险概率很高,随着灌溉次数的增加,缺水率的风险概率逐渐降低。一般在轻旱年灌水1～2次、中旱年灌水2～3次、重旱年灌水3次之后,大部分地区都能基本满足冬小麦的需水要求,缺水率出现的概率已经很小。     

受限空间作业的风险分析与控制

受限空间作业涉及的行业多、危险因素多,发生事故时救援难度大且后果严重。本文在对受限空间作业风险进行分析的基础上,从安全管理、作业过程、作业环境三个方面提出了相应的风险控制措施和建议。该研究对有效控制受限空间作业的风险以及预防事故的发生具有重要的意义。     

贵州省安龙县地质灾害发育特征及成因分析

安龙县位于贵州省西南部,地处扬子陆块与右江造山带的过渡地带。该县境内山地、丘陵地貌发育,地形切割较强烈,地质构造、地层岩性复杂。在自然因素、人为因素的作用下,引发了多种地质灾害,使区内生态地质环境遭受严重破坏,给工农业生产和人民生命财产带来较大的损失和严重危害。本文分析研究了因降雨为主引发的滑坡、崩塌,因岩溶充水矿床疏排地下水所引起的岩溶塌陷,因矿山企业采矿形成的采空区为主引发的采空塌陷等地质灾害发育特征及成因分析。地质环境是一个复杂多变的、不稳定的开放系统,其变化就构成了地质灾害形成与发展的基础与条件。地质灾害的发育、分布、致灾程度与地质环境中的地形地貌、地质构造、岩土体地质类型、水文地质条件等因素及人类工程活动强度有着密切的关系。并针对存在的地质灾害隐患提出防治措施及建议。     

秦皇岛海域赤潮灾害损失评估系统设计与实现

本文根据已存在的赤潮灾害损失评估技术方法,并针对秦皇岛海域海水养殖业与滨海旅游业等的实际情况,依据业务工作的具体需求以及能够得到的评价数据,并结合地理信息系统技术建立了基于Visual C#和ArcGIS Engine组件的秦皇岛海域赤潮灾害损失评估系统。系统实现了数据输入与管理、GIS数据检测查询、损失评估模型计算、结果制作与输出的功能,并将赤潮灾害损失评估结果以直观、可视化的形式进行表达。评估结果包括海水养殖业损失评估、滨海旅游业损失评估、赤潮灾害应急监测费用损失评估以及处置费用损失评估,并对当地的灾后救援以及经济损失评估起到重要作用,同时也为管理者的相关决策提供科学依据。     

试论海南省周边海岛开发利用存在的问题和对策

海南省周边海岛资源丰富,开发前景广阔,但海岛生态系统也极其脆弱,抵抗外来的干扰能力很差,一旦破坏很难恢复。同样海岛开发也面临诸多问题,主要包括海岛管理、海岛生态环境、海岛开发利用、海岛自然灾害和国防安全五个方面问题。本文通过对海南省海岛的利用现状、存在的问题进行综合分析,最后提出了海岛开发对策,为保护和合理开发利用海岛资源,促进海洋经济强省建设,助推海南省国际旅游岛建设都具有非常积极意义。     

A scoping study on the costs of indoor air quality illnesses: an insurance loss reduction perspective

The number of indoor air quality (IAQ)-related health complaints in commercial buildings, and the frequency of litigation over the effects of poor IAQ is increasing. These increases have ramifications for insurance carriers, which pay for many of the costs of health care and general commercial liability. However, little is known about the actual costs to insurance companies from poor IAQ in buildings. This paper reports on the results of a literature search of buildings-related, business and legal databases, and interviews with insurance and risk management representatives aimed at finding information on the direct costs to the insurance industry of poor building IAQ, as well as the costs of litigation. The literature search turned up little specific cost information, but indicated that there is a strong awareness and growing concern over the “silent crisis” of IAQ and its potential to cause large industry losses. The source of these losses includes both direct costs to insurers from paying health insurance and professional liability claims, as well as the cost of litigation. In spite of the lack of data on how IAQ-related health problems affect their business, the insurance industry has taken the anecdotal evidence about their reality seriously enough to alter their policies in ways that have lessened their exposure.     

飓风“桑迪＂的影响及启示研究

城市地区突发自然灾害常常会对给水排水设施造成不利影响。飓风“桑迪”于2012年10月29日登陆美国,多个东部城市出现大面积停电,缺水,交通中断以及罕见的城市内涝,造成重大人员伤亡和巨额财产损失,严重地影响了当地人们正常的生产和生活。从飓风“桑迪”对美国城市给水和排水系统造成的巨大破坏出发,并结合当地政府采取的紧急应对措施展开讨论,总结其中的经验教训及启示。     

国际贸易“碳中和”研究热点领域及其动向

碳中和是世界各国面临的共同问题。经济全球化与贸易自由化背景下国际贸易总量快速增长,伴随着深度国际分工与产业转移,贸易产品的生产者与消费者在陆表形成严重的空间位移。利用文献计量软件CiteSpace分析国际贸易主题下碳中和相关文献,揭示国际贸易“碳中和”研究动向。研究发现：（1）温室气体在全球范围时空演变,使跨区域、多尺度的全球碳治理变得更加复杂,发达国家将高污染与低价值链产业转移至各发展中国家,以生产者责任划分的碳核算原则不再适用于国际贸易合作。（2）进出口贸易逐渐成为新兴经济体经济发展动力,全球碳治理应转向新兴经济体与区域一体化,全球气候政策设计应遵守国际碳市场公平性底线,不断优化碳排放量核算体系,完善碳会计方法,模拟全球碳减排预期效果。重点提高产业部门碳减排意识和产业清洁技术及能源利用效率,利用多种手段改变生态系统的增汇减碳能力。新兴经济体在承接发达国家技术援助同时,应重点关注本国能源产业,发展可再生能源产业,提高能源的利用效率,并运用经济政策与金融工具促进本国的气候变化投融资产业发展。全球碳治理应更加注重公平性与国家间的经济发展、环境资源差异,利用多样的碳治理工具与协商合作方式,促使更多国家参与全球化或区域一体化的碳治理模式。（3）中国亟待通过国内多产业、多部门的增汇减排与国际碳减排、碳中和实践,健全碳市场机制,提高碳治理水平,为国际碳治理合作提供“最大公约数”。     

Emissions mitigation opportunities and practice in Northeastern United States

Climate change is creating substantial and growing impacts on the Northeastern United States. As the world’s seventh largest contributor of heat trapping carbon dioxide, the region will play a critical role in moving towards stabilizing global concentrations at a level that avoids serious adverse consequences. The Northeast region is well positioned to be a leader in technology and policy innovation for reducing emissions, and can drive national and international programs that are essential to providing a safer future climate. This paper summarizes technological mitigation options and measures as well as opportunities for public and private actions to reduce emissions. The authors propose a ‘3% solution’ of annual emission reductions to put the Northeastern United States on an emissions reductions path that is consistent with the level of reductions necessary to avoid dangerous climate change. The 3% solution requires a combination of policies that will reduce the energy imbedded in the region’s infrastructure and technologies, and individual action to choose the lowest emitting of available technologies and practices.     

我国煤矿安全生产领域构建保险体系的探讨

我国煤矿事故多发且后果严重,其安全生产形势严峻,而煤矿安全生产领域的工伤保险体制却存在着一些问题和不足。本文将我国煤矿现有的工伤保险与强制雇主责任保险相结合,提出了构建二元化的保险体系,即针对现有的工伤保险,结合煤矿安全生产的特点,建立主成分分析和聚类分析划分风险等级的模型,用来确定工伤保险费率,强调费率对企业安全状况的反馈,并充分利用工伤保险基金从技术上改进煤矿安全生产状况,同时引入强制雇主责任保险以便有效地转嫁矿难所带来的巨大风险。通过构建新的保险体系用来改善我国目前严峻的煤矿安全生产状况。     

淮南煤矿沉陷区建（构）筑物保护治理工程探讨

煤炭资源的开发带动了淮南经济快速持续发展,但由于煤炭资源采出后,开采区周围岩土体的原岩应力平衡状态遭到破坏,出现位移和变形,诱发的开采沉陷可导致一系列环境问题,甚至引发重大的地质灾害事故,如建筑物的裂缝与崩塌,铁路钢轨的悬浮,高速公路路基的沉陷,水体的流失与矿井的淹没等都将造成巨大的经济损失及严重的社会问题。因此,开采沉陷区内建（构）筑物的保护治理一直是矿区亟待解决的问题。针对煤炭地下开采活动对沉陷区内地表建（构）筑物的影响,探讨了合理开展煤矿沉陷区建（构）筑物保护治理工程的方法。     

基于环境规制的污染型产业发展问题研究

随着区域经济发展和区际产业调整的加快,污染产业由发达地区向欠发达地区转移的问题日益严重。环境规制视角对区际污染产业转移的影响机制进行了理论分析。环境规制是促进污染型产业更好、更快发展的源动力,但极易造成产业生产成本提升、技术创新受限、进入状况不佳等方面问题。文章逐一分析生产成本提升、技术创新受限、进入状况不佳情况,对污染型产业发展带来的影响。根据每一项条件,带来的具体影响情况,分别展开讨论,通过总结讨论结果的方式,得出环境规制给污染型产业发展带来问题的解决方法,提升污染型产业的综合发展水平。     

跨国世界自然遗产保护现状评述

国家疆界的划分原则常常与自然资源及生态功能区划分的原则相悖;动植物种群分布、生态学过程以及地质构造分布,并不因政治边界的存在而消失。这种情况为一些自然遗产地的统一与完整性保护制造了障碍。在过去的几十年中,人们对自然资源管理以及对生物多样性管理的关注点,由原来对特定区域的保护转向强调景观尺度下生态系统连续性的保护。连续性保护理念在跨国项目中体现为跨界保护理念,使连接分散的生态区域之间的动态过程成为可能。跨国世界自然遗产的建立与保护已成为推进跨界资源保护的重要一环。结合相关案例分析,论文从发展历程、分类以及管理三个方面对跨国世界自然遗产保护现状进行评述。资源的不可持续利用目前被认为是对世界遗产保护的最大威胁。跨国自然遗产将通过促进多边合作,在遗产保护与可持续发展之间建立平衡。