海平面上升的影响及损失预测

气候变化引起的海平面上升对沿海国家和地区构及极大的威胁，造成了不同程度的破坏和损失，通过对海平面上升的可能影响进行了分析，提出了影响及损失的几种估算和评价方法。     

全球重大环境问题--气候变化导致的海平面上升

本文介绍了气候变化问题的由来,人类对由气候变化引起的海平面上升问题的科学认识,分析了海平面上升对沿海须弱地区可能造成的环境,经济和社会影响,提出了应对海平面上升的对策措施。     

海平面上升对城市生态环境易损性影响的模拟分析

根据目前全球海平面上升趋势,提出我国沿海城市生态环境遭受破坏的概率和损失程度判断标准,并将二者进行拟合用于构建基于海平面上升的我国沿海城市各区域的生态环境易损性判断模型。且通过实例研究表明,该模型能够准确的判别上海市各区域的生态环境易损性等级,这为未来上海市维持生态环境的可持续发展提供科学、有效的参考依据。     

海平面上升对珠江三角洲水资源的影响

本文简要分析了全球海平面上的升的原因，预测了珠江三角洲地区海平面可能上升的数值，调查分析了珠江三角洲水资源利用和保护现状及存在的问题，探讨了海平面上升给水资源利用和保护带来的影响，主要从城镇供水，农业灌溉，水环境污染，城镇排水，水生生态的改变５个方面进行分析，并提出了相应的对策。     

海平面上升对广东近岸海域环境影响研究

全球气候变暖会引起海平面上升,已有研究表明,广东沿海海平面上升量最大,上升速度为2.19 mm/a。本文根据张锦文对广东沿海的海平面上升估计值,研究了广东沿海到2030年、2050年和2100年时由海平面上升造成的海岸滨线后退和海岸面积损失的影响,并进一步分析了海平面上升对广东近岸海域红树林、海草和湿地生态系的影响。     

Bio-Energy Systems at the Community Level in the South Pacific: Impacts & Monitoring

Read, Sims and Adams (2001) detailed a case study for bio-energy implementation in a notional small Pacific Island and elaborated a theoretical model for assessing and simulating the socio-economic impacts of a particular bio-energy system designed to produce an exportable liquid fuel along with rural electricity supplies. An important conclusion was that there is no silver-bullet ‘one size fits all’ bio-energy system suited to all situations. Moreover, a system appropriate at one place and time may become obsolete with exogenous technological advance and/or as a community advances down its own development pathway. In order to understand how these issues interact in practice, a selected set of implementation projects is reviewed highlighting scale, capacity, community, technology, governmental policy and the concept of critical mass, as factors that are central to the successful development of the bioenergy sector. Through this evaluation, it is shown that: 1.A significant biomass supply resource base often exists locally in the form of agricultural and forestry residues on which modern bioenergy programmes could be initiated. The use of biomass energy flow charts are an important tool for evaluating the potential of local and national resources. 2. Without an integrated multi-disciplinary, multi-sector and whole-systems approach to the implementation of bioenergy schemes, long term success is likely to remain elusive. 3. There is a requirement at the national level for a coordinated approach with strong policy signals that overcome perverse and practical obstacles.     

Adaptation of maize to climate change impacts in Iran

Adaptation is a key factor for reducing the future vulnerability of climate change impacts on crop production. The objectives of this study were to simulate the climate change effects on growth and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) and to evaluate the possibilities of employing various cultivar of maize in three classes (long, medium and short maturity) as an adaptation option for mitigating the climate change impacts on maize production in Khorasan Razavi province of Iran. For this purpose, we employed two types of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Daily climatic parameters as one stochastic growing season for each projection period were generated by Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS?WG). Also, crop growth under projected climate conditions was simulated based on the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize. LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters. The predicted results showed that the day to anthesis (DTA) and anthesis period (AP) of various cultivars of maize were shortened in response to climate change impacts in all scenarios and GCMs models; ranging between 0.5 % to 17.5 % for DTA and 5 % to 33 % for AP. The simulated grain yields of different cultivars was gradually decreased across all the scenarios by 6.4 % to 42.15 % during the future 100 years compared to the present climate conditions. The short and medium season cultivars were faced with the lowest and highest reduction of the traits, respectively. It means that for the short maturing cultivars, the impacts of high temperature stress could be much less compared with medium and long maturity cultivars. Based on our findings, it can be concluded that cultivation of early maturing cultivars of maize can be considered as the effective approach to mitigate the adverse effects of climate.     

Adaptation to climate change: the attitudes of stakeholders in the livestock industry

It is now widely accepted that climate change is happening and that future changes will impact on many aspects of society, including agriculture. To maintain food supplies, the agricultural industry must address climate change adaptation. Key to this is the attitudes of those within the industry likely to have responsibility for adapting. This study investigated stakeholder attitudes towards adaptation to climate change in the livestock industry. Findings reveal four attitudinal groups. First, there is a ‘farmer-focused group’ that has a positive attitude about the ability of livestock farmers to adapt to climate change, but that also has the opinion that they will need additional support to adapt. Second, there is an ‘incentive for enterprise, anti-GM (genetic modification) group’ with an attitudinal position stressing that the government should have a role in implementing regulations and providing finance. This group has a negative attitude towards GM technology and does not think it will be the answer to climate change. Third, there is an ‘information and education group’ whose attitude is that the provision of information is crucial for ensuring that the livestock industry adapts. Fourth, there is a ‘pro-technology group’ who have a positive attitude towards GM technology and who are therefore willing to embrace it as the route to adaptation. Three of these four groups favour soft adaptations that maintain flexibility within the system, and only the fourth is of the opinion that adaptive capacity is not an issue and that the industry is ready to implement hard adaptations.     

渤海海峡至黄海北部低压顶部型海雾特征分析

选取2001年2月21-22日和2011年8月15-16日2次海雾过程进行对比分析,研究低压气旋顶部型海雾的高低空环流配置及物理量分布特征。利用地面观测实况和探空资料,结合NCEP再分析资料计算的物理量场,对低压气旋顶部型海雾的形成、持续和消散进行综合分析。分析结果显示,低压气旋顶部型海雾持续时间长,强度大。低压气旋的顶部或右前方盛行偏南风或西南风,偏南风或西南风带来的暖湿气流:(1)为海雾的形成提供了充沛的水汽条件;(2)容易在对流层低层形成逆温或等温的稳定层结;(3)在低层形成暖平流。稳定的大气层结,较好的水汽条件,配合较弱的垂直运动,有利于海雾的形成和持续。当低压气旋顶部的偏南风不断增大到一定程度(风速10 m/s),容易破坏海雾发生区上空的稳定层结,温度平流增大,加速湿空气在水平方向和垂直方向上的输送和扩散,不利于海雾的维持。当低压气旋过境后,低压气旋后部的偏北风带来的冷空气容易形成冷平流,有利于海雾的消散。     

波罗的海地区地方级可持续政策:波罗的海城市联盟网中的地方21世纪议程

"地方21世纪议程"(LA21)有两个主要目标.①在本研究论文中的一些经验证据的基础上,首要目标是改进民主(环境)决策程序,以便使大多数人能够参与规划和决策,并能够了解这些决策的重大意义.②LA2l程序寻求以既考虑地方的情况又考虑全球情况的方式改善(至少间接地)当地广义的环境状况.本文的第一部分探讨了LA21的概念与方法并阐明对于波罗的海LA2l非常重要的不同的行动领域.此外,研究论文还将描述和展示在一个城市网,即波罗的海城市联盟(uBC)范围内的LA2l形势.包括传递信息、模型及观念的联网是将LA2l理念传播到特别是新近民主化的社会的一个主要手段.最后,本文将对波罗的海边缘的LA2l形势作一全面的评价.     

波罗的海地区地方级可持续政策:波罗的海城市联盟网中的地方21世纪议程

"地方21世纪议程"(LA21)有两个主要目标.①在本研究论文中的一些经验证据的基础上,首要目标是改进民主(环境)决策程序,以便使大多数人能够参与规划和决策,并能够了解这些决策的重大意义.②LA2l程序寻求以既考虑地方的情况又考虑全球情况的方式改善(至少间接地)当地广义的环境状况.本文的第一部分探讨了LA21的概念与方法并阐明对于波罗的海LA2l非常重要的不同的行动领域.此外,研究论文还将描述和展示在一个城市网,即波罗的海城市联盟(uBC)范围内的LA2l形势.包括传递信息、模型及观念的联网是将LA2l理念传播到特别是新近民主化的社会的一个主要手段.最后,本文将对波罗的海边缘的LA2l形势作一全面的评价.     

中国适应气候变化的国家资金机制

人类应对气候变化通常有两方面的措施和行动：减缓和适应。减缓偏重于影响气候系统,阻碍变化进程和幅度;适应则是要控制气候变化的风险,减轻不利影响。目前,通过《京都议定书》的谈判、生效和执行,人类在减缓方面已经做了一定工作。然而,气候、生态和社会经济系统的惯性决定了即使全球21世纪的温室气体排放有实质性的减少。气候变暖及其不利影响仍将会持续数百年乃至上千年。这就给人类特别是发展中国家造成了极大的适应压力。     

Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India

An ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU HighNoon project are used to project future air temperatures and precipitation on a 25 km grid for the Ganges basin in northern India, with a view to assessing impact of climate change on water resources and determining what multi-sector adaptation measures and policies might be adopted at different spatial scales.The RCM results suggest an increase in mean annual temperature, averaged over the Ganges basin, in the range 1–4 °C over the period from 2000 to 2050, using the SRES A1B forcing scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate that natural variability dominates the climate change signal and there is considerable uncertainty concerning change in regional annual mean precipitation by 2050. The RCMs do suggest an increase in annual mean precipitation in this region to 2050, but lack significant trend. Glaciers in headwater tributary basins of the Ganges appear to be continuing to decline but it is not clear whether meltwater runoff continues to increase. The predicted changes in precipitation and temperature will probably not lead to significant increase in water availability to 2050, but the timing of runoff from snowmelt will likely occur earlier in spring and summer. Water availability is subject to decadal variability, with much uncertainty in the contribution from climate change.Although global social-economic scenarios show trends to urbanization, locally these trends are less evident and in some districts rural population is increasing. Falling groundwater levels in the Ganges plain may prevent expansion of irrigated areas for food supply. Changes in socio-economic development in combination with projected changes in timing of runoff outside the monsoon period will make difficult choices for water managers.Because of the uncertainty in future water availability trends, decreasing vulnerability by augmenting resilience is the preferred way to adapt to climate change. Adaptive policies are required to increase society's capacity to adapt to both anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Integrated solutions are needed, consistent at various spatial scales, to assure robust and sustainable future use of resources. For water resources this is at the river basin scale. At present adaptation measures in India are planned at national and state level, not taking into account the physical boundaries of water systems. To increase resilience adaptation plans should be made locally specific. However, as it is expected that the partitioning of water over the different sectors and regions will be the biggest constraint, a consistent water use plan at catchment and river basin scale may be the best solution. A policy enabling such river basin planning is essential.     

南黄海和东海海域营养盐等物质大气入海通量的再分析

根据国内外学者近年来在黄、东海海域大气营养盐和硫酸盐气溶胶干、湿沉降方面的工作 ,估算出南黄海及东海海域各个季节营养盐和硫酸盐的大气入海通量。分析结果表明 :南黄海及东海海域营养盐和硫酸盐气溶胶浓度和降水中的离子浓度都有较明显的季节变化 ,基本上冬季最大 ,而夏季最小 ;氮盐和硫酸盐的沉降以湿沉降为主 ,而磷酸盐以干沉降为主 ;大气沉降与河流输送相比 ,NH4 和PO43 -以大气沉降为主 ,而SiO3 2 -和NO3 -以河流输送为主     

世界静脉产业迅速崛起的原因及趋势探讨

探讨了“静脉产业”——再生资源产业,即对社会生产过程和生活消费中产生的各种废弃物进行回收和再加工利用的产业在世界上迅速崛起的原因及发展趋势。指出世界“静脉产业”迅速发展的原因主要是为缓解经济快速发展与资源短缺的矛盾,实施经济与社会可持续发展战略;同时,采取了构建社会化的产业发展体系、建立产业技术研发体系、调整产业空间布局、创造良好的制度环境等一系列战略措施。对＂静脉产业＂未来发展趋势,分析认为世界“静脉产业”将呈现经济地位不断提升,出口量逐步减少,技术研究与开发进一步加强,企业规模结构趋向合理、各具特点的生态工业园区不断发展,法规政策体系不断完善等发展趋势。     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。本文在＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

The Role of Fungal Symbioses in the Adaptation of Plants to High Stress Environments

All plants studied in natural ecosystemsare symbiotic with fungi that either resideentirely (endophytes) or partially(mycorrhizae) within plants. Thesesymbioses appear to adapt to biotic andabiotic stresses and may be responsible forthe survival of both plant hosts and fungalsymbionts in high stress habitats. Here wedescribe the role of symbiotic fungi inplant stress tolerance and present astrategy based on adaptive symbiosis topotentially mitigate the impacts of globalchange on plant communities.     

Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology

Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact andvulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having thepotential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related toclimate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops atypology of adaptation to systematically classify and characterize agriculturaladaptation options to climate change, drawing primarily on the Canadiansituation. In particular, it differentiates adaptation options in agricultureaccording to the involvement of different agents (producers, industries,governments); the intent, timing and duration of employment of theadaptation; the form and type of the adaptive measure; and the relationshipto processes already in place to cope with risks associated with climatestresses. A synthesis of research on adaptation options in Canadianagriculture identifies four main categories: (i) technological developments,(ii) government programs and insurance, (iii) farm production practices,and (iv) farm financial management. In addition to these `directadaptations', there are options, particularly information provision, that maystimulate adaptation initiatives. The results reveal that most adaptationoptions are modifications to on-going farm practices and public policydecision-making processes with respect to a suite of changing climatic(including variability and extremes) and non-climatic conditions (political,economic and social). For progress on implementing adaptations to climatechange in agriculture there is a need to better understand the relationshipbetween potential adaptation options and existing farm-level andgovernment decision-making processes and risk management frameworks.