Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements

The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neo-classical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global community itself.     

Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Methodological Issues

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened a Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in 1998 that involved more than 200 expects and incorporated views from many research communities. This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Workshop and profiles the contributions to the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science.     

A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper.     

Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change

An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data.     

Disaster Loss Mitigation as an Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Extremes of climate and weather, storms, floods and droughts, require vigorous adaptation measures in a generally stable climate or in one...     

A Framework and Key Questions for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change

There is a critical need to collectively understand, to develop adaptation options to enhance the benefits, and to reduce the social and economic vulnerabilities induced by climate variability and change. This paper uses key questions to help build a framework for adaptation by first organizing the questions into adaptation science, management and option components, including their respective sub-categories. The process of adaptation depends on many factors, including who or what adapts, what they adapt to, how they adapt and what and how resources are used. This conceptual model is designed to organize concepts regarding adaptation, to help stimulate ideas, and to explore the linkages among parts of the adaptation cycle. Predictive models need to be developed to determine the outcomes of planned adaptation strategies. For the best and most realistic evaluation of climate problems, adaptation and impacts should be considered together. This joint approach improves the assessment of the significance and dangers of the current and future climate, as well as the determination of solutions (e.g., how to prepare for a changing climate) and their priorities. Challenges of adaptive management are discussed in terms of a framework with linkages to adaptation science and options. Adaptation research and applications work continue to build on the foundation of science and management frameworks to address the risks and uncertainties in the decision-making process and to identify adaptation options.     

城市地区气候变化脆弱性与对策研究进展

本文基于国内外脆弱性研究工作,对气候变化脆弱性内涵、城市地区气候变化脆弱性成因以及应对气候变化的举措等方面已经展开的研究工作进行了归纳与总结,认为应对气候变化已经成为城市地区当务之急所需要完成的任务是,积极主动的适应气候变化的影响。     

Life on the Edge: Vulnerability and Adaptation of African Ecosystems to Global Climate Change

Donor countriesare providing financial and technicalsupport for global climate change countrystudies to help African nations meet theirreporting needs under the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). Technical assistance to completevulnerability and adaptation assessmentsincludes training of analysts, sharing ofcontemporary tools (e.g. simulationmodels), data and assessment techniques,information-sharing workshops and aninternational exchange programme foranalysts. This chapter summarizes 14African country studies (Botswana, Côted'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, the Gambia,Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Nigeria, SouthAfrica, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia andZimbabwe) assessing vulnerabilities toglobal climate change and identifyingadaptation options. The analysis revealedthat the participating African countriesare vulnerable to global climate change inmore than one of the followingsocio-economic sectors: coastal resources,agriculture, grasslands and livestock,water resources, forests, wildlife, andhuman health. This vulnerability isexacerbated by widespread poverty,recurrent droughts, inequitable landdistribution, environmental degradation,natural resource mismanagement anddependence on rain-fed agriculture. Arange of practical adaptation options wereidentified in key socio-economic sectors ofthe African nations analysed. However,underdeveloped human and institutionalcapacity, as well as the absence ofadequate infrastructure, renders manytraditional coping strategies (rooted inpolitical and economic stability)ineffective or insufficient. FutureAfrican country studies should be moreclosely coordinated with development ofnational climate change action plans     

系统响应气候变化脆弱性定量评价国内研究综述

定量评价气候变化脆弱性是人类采取适应性措施应对全球气候变化,以减少其不利影响的关键和基础。在对气候变化脆弱性有关概念进行讨论,及对国际、国内系统响应气候变化脆弱性评价研究回顾的基础上,对中国近十几来有关气候变化脆弱性定量评价研究的成果从三个方面进行了较为系统的总结：气候情景的模拟预测、系统变化过程的模拟、脆弱性指标的选取及脆弱性层次的划分。最后,从评价对象、技术手段、指标体系、时间尺度等方面探讨了该领域研究的不足及发展方向。     

Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change

This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO₂ and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO₂-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO₂ on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO₂-driven warmer climate. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

西双版纳生物多样性廊道区气候变化脆弱性评价研究

以IPCC（政府间气候变化专业委员会）对生态系统气候脆弱性定义为理论基础,以西双版纳勐腊一尚勇保护区廊道为研究区域,通过建立生态系统气候脆弱性评价指标体系,对廊道从20世纪70年代到现在和未来变化做了评估,初步识别出不同历史时期研究区的生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性特征,并提出应对气候变化的对策建议。     

中国气候状况及应对气候变化方案和措施

由于受人类活动和自然因素的综合影响,自20世纪50年代以来,中国年平均气温已升高了0.68℃,其中黄河以北地区平均升高了0.8℃～1.2℃,黄河以南地区平均下降了0.2℃～0.8℃;而北方年降水量减少,南方却增加,南涝北旱加剧。经模拟预测后认为,中国从1987年开始的气候变暖将持续到2015年,将于2016年转入低温期,2039年又将转入高温期。到2020年全国年平均气温将比20世纪50年代升高1.68℃,西北地区平均升高2.22℃;南方年平均降水量增加28 mm,北方变化不大;2030年海平面将升高5.3 cm～14.2 cm,气候将向暖、干的趋势发展。因此中国发布《中国应对气候变化国家方案》及对此采取综合对策。     

Exploring the Theoretical Interface of Climate Change and Resource Dependency: Application to the Vulnerability of Boreal Forest Regions

This paper addresses the combined effects of two sources of disturbance on the boreal forest – climate change and the economic relations of industrial forestry. It describes a theoretical blueprint constructed of concepts from the theory of dissipative structures (derived from the discipline of physical chemistry) and world-systems theory (derived from the discipline of sociology) into a proposed integrated theory pivoting on the concept of social vulnerability. The goal is to examine the key concepts of this theory – vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity – as elements of the complex systems perspective provided by dissipative structure principles. The focus on social vulnerability provides the means to establish the role of external economic linkages relevant to industrial forestry – the core/periphery relations of the world-system – as they influence the social vulnerability of the boreal forest SESs. These systems are posited as embedded peripheries, following world-system criteria, and as the focal scale of analysis within a larger hierarchically organized dissipative structure. The goal is to suggest and stimulate ideas for further discussion and exploration, motivated by the premise that any successful climate change mitigation efforts depend on having sound theoretical foundations on which to stand.     

A Method for Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Siberian Forests: Example of Larch Area

The conceptual scheme of integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change in Siberian forests is elaborated and applied to the extensive area in Siberia covered by Larch forests. Forest stakeholders on the provincial level are identified to be the most relevant for an integrated impact assessment. Organisation of the assessment study as a combination of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches is suggested. Major biophysical vulnerability indexes and regional syndromes are identified as the growing stock and current increment averaged by administrative unit. Models and data suitability and quality for an analysis of biophysical vulnerability in conditions of climate change are studied for Siberian forests and future development trends are identified. An application of the elaborated conceptual scheme, which employs two models of different type and forest inventory data, is presented for the Larch area.     

Adapting to Climate Change in Africa

The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.     

发展与气候变化

气候变化不仅是一个影响世界各国的全球性问题,它还对许多中低收入国家的发展进程构成颠覆甚至倒退的威胁.在支持发展中国家经济增长重点的同时,应对减缓和适应气候变化的双重挑战,是国际社会面临的一项重大考验.     

北极苔原和森林地区的稳定性及脆弱性与社会和环境变化

北极苔原带和北方森林(北部地区)因其分布广阔并远离农业土地利用变化及工业发展的影响,而一度被认为是地球上最后的净土.但如今这些地区如同地球上任何别的地区一样,也正经受着环境和社会变化的影响.本文总结了北部地区在全球系统中所起的作用,并提出方案以便对导致该地区对社会和环境变化敏感的那些因子进行评价.     

全球气候变化

本文详细介绍了全球气候变化的原因以及针对此而成立的有关国际机构,并根据有关资料预测了未来全球气候变化的趋势。     

中国应对气候变化的绿色机遇

受到"排挤"的德班会议联合国气候大会即将在南非港口城市德班召开。但是,当前世界经济尚未从2008年的金融危机的阴影中走出来,且又遭到经济衰退的二次探底的冲击。美国总统大选在即但失业率居高不下、经济增长乏力;欧盟财政危机四伏、欧元区面临新的挑战;日本     

“城市”与气候变化

2010年12月,世界银行和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)相继发布了以"城市与气候变化"为主题的研究报告,题目非常相似,分别为《城市与气候变化:一项紧急议程》和《城市与气候变化》,二者的报告超过了百页。城市作为应对气候变化的重要主