Causal attributions of Ghanaian industrial workers for accident occurrence: miners and non-miners perspective

Problem: Reports from the accident literature indicate that accident rates tend to vary with type of occupation. The mining industry has been recorded as the most dangerous with a high disabling injury rate. This observation has been attributed to the extremely stressful conditions under which miners work. Besides, the intimidating work environment in the mines has been insinuated to invoke a sense of helplessness, fatalism and hence defensive causal attributions for accident occurrences. Method: This study compared causal attributions between accident victims in Ghana's mining industry with their counterparts in textile factories. T values and Chi-square were employed to test for statistically significant differences between the two groups of accident victims. Results: Findings indicate that there is no difference between the causal attributions for miners and non-miners. Impact on Industry: Accident frequency and occupational type have no impact on causal attributions.     

航空人为差错事故/事件分析(ECAR)模型研究

为深入研究航空人为差错事故/事件的影响因素,以人为差错相关理论为基础,对比分析几种典型的人为差错分析模型;通过借鉴ECCAIRS分析框架,并在基元事件分析(EEAM)逻辑和CCAR396部的分类方法基础上,构建航空人为差错事故/事件分析(ECAR)模型,它从事件层、描述层、原因层和组织因素与改进建议层,分析航空事故和不安全事件的人为差错。此外,还将组织因素概念引入该模型。     

易燃易爆场所静电事故链路及断链减灾模式

为了探究易燃易爆场所静电事故形成过程及防护机理,基于事故链式理论,以及静电点燃源形成过程和爆炸性环境形成过程这2条并行支链,绘制了易燃易爆场所静电事故链路;通过事故案例说明了静电事故链路的实用性;研究了静电荷、易燃/可燃物质在外界扰动作用下的特征形态。研究结果表明:静电事故断链减灾模式包括静电点燃源断链减灾模式、爆炸性环境断链减灾模式以及降低事故影响的事故后果断链减灾模式;针对静电事故的各类断链减灾模式,提出了相应的防护措施,可为易燃易爆场所静电事故防护提供系统性的指导方案。     

Factors affecting accident severity inside and outside urban areas in Greece

Objectives: This research aims to identify and analyze the factors affecting accident severity through a macroscopic analysis, with a focus on the comparison between inside and outside urban areas. Disaggregate road accident data for Greece for the year 2008 were used. Methods: Two models were developed, one for inside and one for outside urban areas. Because the dependent variable had 2 categories, killed/severely injured (KSI) and slightly injured (SI), the binary logistic regression analysis was selected. Furthermore, this research aims to estimate the probability of fatality/severe injury versus slight injury as well as to calculate the odds ratios (relative probabilities) for various road accident configurations. The Hosmer and Lemeshow statistic and other diagnostic tests were conducted in order to assess the goodness-of-fit of the model. Results: From the application of the models, it appears that inside urban areas 3 types of collisions (sideswipe, rear-end, with fixed object/parked car), as well as involvement of motorcycles, bicycles, buses, 2 age groups (18-30 and older than 60?years old), time of accident, and location of the accident, seem to affect accident severity. Outside urban areas, 4 types of collisions (head-on, rear-end, side, sideswipe), weather conditions, time of accident, one age group (older than 60?years old), and involvement of motorcycles and buses were found to be significant. Conclusions: Factors affecting road accident severity only inside urban areas include young driver age, bicycles, intersections, and collision with fixed objects, whereas factors affecting severity only outside urban areas are weather conditions and head-on and side collisions, demonstrating the particular road users and traffic situations that should be focused on for road safety interventions for the 2 different types of networks (inside and outside urban areas). The methodology and the results of this research may provide a promising tool to prioritize programs and measures to improve road safety in Greece and worldwide.     

基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型研究

重点阐述了基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型的建立过程,应用贝叶斯网络建立了开式压力机安全性评估模型,对冲手事故模型中的共因失效节点进行了说明,并最终计算得出开式压力机冲手事故的发生概率.计算结果分析表明:对于系统基本事件之间有共因和相关关系的系统,BN计算结果使得事故后果概率明显增大,设计者和管理者不能忽略共因和相关关系对系统风险的影响.     

Analysis of equipment failures as contributors to chemical process accidents

A database study of chemical process accident cases was carried out. The objective of the study is was to identify the reasons for equipment based accidents. The most frequent accident causing equipment were piping (25%), reactors and storage tanks (both 14%) and process vessels (10% of equipment accidents). The six most accident-prone equipment is process related involve nearly 80% of accidents.78% of equipment accident contributors are technically oriented including design and human/technical interface faults. Purely human and organizational reasons are the most common accident contributors for storage tanks (33%), piping (18%) and heat transfer equipment (16% of causes). For other equipment the technical accident causes are most common.The accident contributors were divided to main and sub-contributors. On average process equipment failures have 2.2 contributors. The contributors, which frequent and act often as main contributors, should be focused. These risky contributors were identified for several equipment types. Also a deeper analysis of the accident causes and their interconnections was made. Based on the analysis a checklist of main risk factors was created for hazard identification on different types of equipment.     

Development of a method to predict crash risk using trend analysis of driver behavior changes over time

Objective: This study aimed at identifying and predicting in advance the point in time with a high risk of a virtual accident before a virtual accident actually occurs using the change of behavioral measures and subjective rating on drowsiness over time and the trend analysis of each behavioral measure.

Methods: Behavioral measures such as neck bending angle and tracking error in steering maneuvering during the simulated driving task were recorded under the low arousal condition of all participants who stayed up all night without sleeping. The trend analysis of each evaluation measure was conducted using a single regression model where time and each measure of drowsiness corresponded to an independent variable and a dependent variable, respectively. Applying the trend analysis technique to the experimental data, we proposed a method to predict in advance the point in time with a high risk of a virtual accident (in a real-world driving environment, this corresponds to a crash) before the point in time when the participant would have encountered a crucial accident if he or she continued driving a vehicle (we call this the point in time of a virtual accident).

Results: On the basis of applying the proposed trend analysis method to behavioral measures, we found that the proposed approach could predict in advance the point in time with a high risk of a virtual accident before the point in time of a virtual accident.

Conclusion: The proposed method is a promising technique for predicting in advance the time zone with potentially high risk (probability) of being involved in an accident due to drowsy driving and for warning drivers of such a drowsy and risky state.     

Investigation of powered 2-wheeler accident involvement in urban arterials by considering real-time traffic and weather data

Objective: Understanding the various factors that affect accident risk is of particular concern to decision makers and researchers. The incorporation of real-time traffic and weather data constitutes a fruitful approach when analyzing accident risk. However, the vast majority of relevant research has no specific focus on vulnerable road users such as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs). Moreover, studies using data from urban roads and arterials are scarce. This study aims to add to the current knowledge by considering real-time traffic and weather data from 2 major urban arterials in the city of Athens, Greece, in order to estimate the effect of traffic, weather, and other characteristics on PTW accident involvement.

Methods: Because of the high number of candidate variables, a random forest model was applied to reveal the most important variables. Then, the potentially significant variables were used as input to a Bayesian logistic regression model in order to reveal the magnitude of their effect on PTW accident involvement.

Results: The results of the analysis suggest that PTWs are more likely to be involved in multivehicle accidents than in single-vehicle accidents. It was also indicated that increased traffic flow and variations in speed have a significant influence on PTW accident involvement. On the other hand, weather characteristics were found to have no effect.

Conclusions: The findings of this study can contribute to the understanding of accident mechanisms of PTWs and reduce PTW accident risk in urban arterials.     

A model of fishing vessel accident probability

Problem: Commercial fishing is one of the least safe occupations. Method: The researchers develop a fishing vessel accident probability model for fishing areas off the northeastern United States using logit regression and daily data from 1981 to 1993. Results: The results indicate that fishing vessel accident probability declined over the study period. Higher wind speed is associated with greater accident probability. Medium-size vessels have the highest accident probability, while small vessels have the lowest. Within the study region, accident probability is lower in the southwestern section than in the northeastern section. Accidents are likely to occur closer to shore than offshore. Accident probability is lowest in spring. Impact on Industry: The probability model is an important building block in development and quantitative assessment of management mechanisms related to safety in the commercial fishing industry.     

The unfolding of ‘12.23’ Kaixian blowout accident in China

In this research, which takes the ‘12.23’ Kaixian blowout accident in Chongqing as an example, firstly the basic information of the accident, including the affected area, the accident process and the accident consequences, was described. Secondly, the development of the accident and other correlative things were researched in detail, especially the monitoring result of concentrations of toxic gases at different times. Thirdly, the blowout accident was categorized into three stages, and the causes of each stage were analyzed in depth together with the events and causal factors charting. Lastly, the profound problems exposed in the disaster were thoroughly discussed. The analysis on ‘12.23’ Kaixian blowout accident indicates that deficiencies in the proper understanding of the hazards by the crew/management as well as inadequacies in risk assessment, management, and the absence of effective countermeasures resulted in the loss of lives.     

Factors associated with fatal accident involvement among California drivers

The primary objectives of this study were to examine characteristics of drivers involved in fatal accidents and to determine if those drivers could be distinguished from California's general driving population on the basis of prior driving record. A sample of drivers involved in 1970–1971 fatal accidents was analyzed and compared to a sample of drivers from the general driving population during the same time period. Drivers who had been drinking prior to the accident, who were considered at-fault for the accident, or whose accident occurred at night were found to have worse prior driving records than other fatal accident-involved drivers. The results also indicated that, as a whole, drivers involved in fatal accidents had worse violation and/or accident records, as well as different demographic and license characteristics than drivers in the general population. The classification functions derived to predict fatal accidents, however, did not differ greatly from regression equations that have been constructed to predict total accidents. It was therefore concluded that prediction systems keyed to total accidents will, to a large extent, also identify high-risk fatal accident drivers.     

香港特区电梯事故管理机制研究

香港特区是典型的经济发达地区,电梯安全管理水平达到世界先进。通过学习香港电梯安全管理和事故管理经验,研究电梯的安全条例、守则中电梯各相关方的职责、电梯事故的管理机制,分析香港特区电梯典型的事故技术调查报告和历年的事故统计数据,有利于加强内地与香港特区之间的技术和管理方面的深入交流,有助于给出进一步提升国家电梯安全和应急管理水平的有效措施和建议。     

Accident rates of drivers with bioptic telescopic lenses

The major purpose of this study was to determine the accident rate of drivers with bioptic telescopic lenses (“bioptic drivers”) in California. The bioptic driver group consisted of 229 drivers, while a randomly selected comparison sample consisted of 21,064 drivers. The 2-year total and fatal/injury accident rates of the bioptic group were normalized to the age/sex distribution of the comparison sample. Normalized accident rates for bioptic drivers were significantly greater than the corresponding rates for comparison drivers. The study also included an analysis of the driving records of bioptic drivers prior and subsequent to acquisition of telescopic lenses and an analysis of total and fatal/injury accidents for bioptic and comparison drivers with valid licenses only. It was recommended that California continue to license bioptic drivers, but with greater use of license restrictions and more stringent post-licensing control.     

Investigation of head injuries by reconstructions of real-world vehicle-versus-adult-pedestrian accidents

A sizeable proportion of adult pedestrians involved in vehicle-versus-pedestrian accidents suffer head injuries, some of which can lead to lifelong disability or even death. To understand head injury mechanisms, in-depth accident analyses and accident reconstructions were conducted. A total of 120 adult pedestrian accident cases from the GIDAS (German in-depth accident study) database were analyzed, from which 10 were selected for reconstruction. Accident reconstructions initially were performed using multi-body system (MBS) pedestrian and car models, so as to calculate head impact conditions, like head impact velocity, head position and head orientation. These impact conditions then were used to set the initial conditions in a simulation of a head striking a windshield, using finite element (FE) head and windshield models. The intracranial pressure and stress distributions of the FE head model were calculated and correlated with injury outcomes. Accident analysis revealed that the windshield and its surrounding frames were the main sources of head injury for adult pedestrians. Reconstruction results indicated that coup/contrecoup pressure, Von Mises and shear stress were important physical parameters to estimate brain injury risks.     

火灾爆炸危险指数评价法在催化裂化装置中的安全运用

以大庆石化总厂140万吨/年重油催化裂化装置为例,运用美国道化学公司火灾、爆炸危险指数评价法对该装置进行安全性评价,分析装置各单元固有的火灾爆炸危险性。根据火灾爆炸危险指数大小给工艺单元划分危险等级,评价其潜在的火灾爆炸危险,确定安全补偿系数。通过量化其危险性因素,从生产设备、工艺操作、安全管理等方面综合分析该装置的危险性、生产过程存在的火灾爆炸危险性和发生事故的可能性,评价发生事故的严重程度,找出主要危险因素力求从技术、工艺、设备、原材料、安全管理等方面采取措施,以减少火灾爆炸事故的发生或降低事故损失。本文为石化企业采取有针对性的火灾爆炸预防措施,从而降低事故的发生概率,提高装置运行的稳定性和可靠性,减少损失,保证生产安全进行提供了科学依据。     

基于事故演化网络的旅游安全及风险防控研究

为做好旅游活动的安全管理和风险防控,构建旅游安全事故演化网络,从旅游事故演化的角度分析旅游中常见的事故类型及其演化过程;根据旅游事故发生的时序和相关程度将旅游安全事故分为4级,从事故节点的出入度、子网节点数和支链数进行分析,判断不同旅游事故的风险大小;此外,从不同结构演化链的角度,总结旅游事故演化的特征.结果表明:旅游...     

Towards an evaluation of accident investigation methods in terms of their alignment with accident causation models

The purpose of this paper is to reflect on accident causation models and accident investigation methods. Theories on accident causation and the modelling of accident mechanisms, as well as a number of methods for accident investigation have been developed and described in the literature. The evolution of accident causation models over time shows a shift from the sequence of events to the representation of the whole system. Respectively, the evolution of accident investigation methods over time reveals a gradual shift from searching for a single immediate cause, to the recognition of multiple causes. In order to evaluate the accident investigation methods, specific plausible requirements were established in order to verify that a specific accident investigation method fulfils the principles of a specific accident causation model or give evidence to the degree of alignment between them. Since different models approach accident causation in different ways, methods linked to these models provide fragmentary information regarding the accident. It is therefore expected that using a combination of model-method pairs could provide a more reliable platform for accident analysis.     

我国化工企业火灾爆炸事故统计分析及事故表征物探讨

从事故统计分析的角度,对2001—2006年我国化工企业发生事故的设备、事故介质进行分析;对设备发生事故的规律以及事故介质的分布特征进行总结;对在火灾爆炸事故调查中具有普遍代表性的事故表征物:爆炸抛射物、火灾爆炸容器、喷溅物和烟尘及烟熏痕迹的特征进行分析;从定量、半定量化的角度,对事故原因进行探讨,事故分析结果,对于从理论的角度分析事故原因、有效预防事故都具有重要的作用。     

Severity of accidents with hazardous materials A comparison between transportation and fixed installations

A review of accident case histories relevant to hazardous materials has been performed. From the literature, 1793 accident case histories involving hazardous materials were identified, most of them from the period 1960–1988. Of these 1793 accidents, 39% happened during transportation. In 682 accidents the consequences included fatalities, and of these 27% involved the transportation of hazardous materials. The accumulated frequency-fatality curves (so-called fN curves) have been constructed and are close to straight lines with a slope of –1, indicating that the probability of having an accident with, for instance, more than one hundred fatalities is approximately ten times lower than the probability of having an accident with more than ten fatalities. The accidents were grouped according to transportation type, and the difference between the various groups was tested using a standard χ² approach. No significant difference between fixed installations and transportation was found for accidents having consequences above three fatalities. Differences were found between Western Europe and North America and the rest of the world. Once an accident has happened, it seems to have more severe effects outside Western Europe and North America, both for transportation accidents and fixed installations. Comparison of fN curves for Western Europe and North America from different time periods did not show significant differences, indicating that once an accident has happened, it has the same probability of escalating now, as it had 20 years ago.     

10种事故致因模型的对比研究

为了给事故致因模型的研究提供理论支持,为日常管理中事故致因模型的选用提供参考依据,从事故的影响对象、模型的组成和事故发生的路径3个维度对10种事故致因模型进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:事故致因模型对事故影响对象的涵盖越来越全面;事故致因模型的组成日趋全面,且趋于对模型中各模块给出清晰定义以能保证分析结果的准确性;故发生的路径描述由链式向系统网状发展;根据充分性和效率的需求对模块化模型和非模块化的模型进行选择。